A partir da década de 90 um novo modelo de concepção do papel do Estado e de suas funções na economia dominou o Estado brasileiro. Esse novo paradigma, conhecido como neoliberalismo, prometia dar fim a crise pela qual o país passava, ou melhor, o fim do processo de inflacionário, o retorno a estabilidade econômica e a retomada do crescimento. O receituário dessa política foi adotado pelo governo brasileiro, entretanto, mais de uma década se passou e além de não ter gerado o resultado prometido, transformou o orçamento público num mecanismo de transferência de renda das classes de renda mais baixas para as mais altas. Nesse sentido que este trabalho analisa a política orçamentária no Brasil no período de 1995-2005. O ponto central está em seu efeito distributivo a partir da análise quantitativa e qualitativa da elevação da carga tributária nacional e do gasto público. Essa leitura é feita a partir da análise do papel do Estado na economia, e a importância das mudanças desse paradigma e seu reflexo na acumulação do capital nos últimos 30 anos. / Since the nineties, a new model of the conception and of the economic functions of the state dominates Brazil’s State. This new paradigm, known as neoliberalism, promised to put an end to the crisis that the country suffered, or better, to put an end to the inflation process, to return to economic stability and to regenerate growth. The recipe of that policy was adopted by the Brazilian government, nevertheless, over a decade has passed and not only the promised outcomes have not been obtained, but they turned the fiscal budget into income transfer mechanism form the lower to the higher income classes. In that sense this dissertation analyzes the budget policy in Brazil during 1995-2005. The main point is the distributive effect following the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the raise in the country’s tax burden and in public expenses. This is done beginning from the analysis of the state’s role in the economy, the importance of the changes of that paradigm and its reflex on capital accumulation in the last thirty years.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This study has as its main objective the study of the causal relationship between a set of macroeconomic and financial variables and the Public Debt, represented the Public Sector Net Debt, using the approach of multivariate regression model Self-Vector (VAR). Thus, we sougth to analyze the assumptions made by Correa and Biagi (2009), dealing about the growth of public debt to articulate financial factors linked to macroeconomic policy that interrelates financial openness, the volatile capital, high interet rates and the priority policy to fight inflation. The sample period includes the post form 1994 to 2010. Thus, for the proposed model, there was first the unit root test verifying that only two variables were not stationary, proceeding to theis use in first difference. Turthermore, it was tested for cointegration, resulting in failure to identify vector cointegrates, following to the application of VAR. Through Schwarz test, followed up to verify the selection criteria for the lag order of the variables in the matrix. Thus, based on these results, it became possible to say that the variables hava a behavior around a mean value, no significant structural breacks, which makes the design more robust. In arrays of contemporary relationships a significant relatioonship between the Public Debt and Public Debt. For other variables, the exchange rate, Aliens and Other Investments Other Investments Brazilian also had positive effects on the Public Debt. And, to a lesser extent, the variables Country Risk, Interesting Rate Long Term Selic rate, IPCA and Foreig Investiment in Portfolio. In the analysis of variance decomposition, the Public Debt demontrated hig explanatory power of more than 60% of its variation. This explanatory importance is followed by exchange and by interest. This result makes clear the determination of the decomposition of the forecast error as the impulse response function. Among the variables anlyzed, the Public Debt was the most impacted the Public Debt, showing its importance in the Brazilian economy. / Este estudo tem como principal objetivo o estudo da relação causal entre um conjunto de variáveis macroeconômicas e financeiras e a Dívida Pública, representada pela Dívida Líquida do Setor Público (DLSP), utilizando-se o enfoque multivariado do modelo de Auto-Regressão Vetorial (VAR). Assim, buscou-se analisar as hipóteses apresentadas por Corrêa e Biagi (2009), que tratam acerca do crescimento da Dívida Pública articulada aos fatores financeiros, ligados à política macroeconômica que interrelaciona a abertura financeira, os capitais voláteis, os juros altos e a prioridade à política de combate à inflação. O período analisado compreende do pós 1994 a 2010. Assim, para o modelo proposto, realizou-se primeiramente, o teste de raiz unitária verificando-se que apenas duas variáveis não eram estacionárias, procedendo-se para a utilização das mesmas em primeira diferença. Além disso, fez-se o teste de cointegração, tendo como resultado a não identificação de vetores co-integrados, seguindo-se para a aplicação do modelo VAR. Por meio do teste de Schwarz, seguiu-se para a verificação do critério de seleção da ordem de defasagem das variáveis na matriz. Assim, com base nos resultados obtidos, tornou-se possível afirmar que as variáveis possuem um comportamento em torno de um valor médio, não se observando quebras estruturais, o que torna o modelo mais robusto. Nas matrizes de relações contemporâneas se observou relação significativa entre a Dívida Pública e a Dívida Pública. Quanto às demais variáveis, o câmbio, Outros Investimentos de Estrangeiros e Outros Investimentos de Brasileiros também apresentaram efeitos positivos sobre a Dívida Pública. E, em menor grau, às variáveis Risco País, Taxa de Juros de Longo Prazo, Taxa SELIC, IPCA e Investimento Externo em Carteira. Na análise da decomposição de variância, a Dívida Pública demonstrou alto poder explanatório, de mais de 60% de sua variação. Essa importância explicativa é seguida pelo câmbio e pelos juros. Esse resultado deixa clara a determinação da decomposição do erro de previsão quanto a função impulso resposta. Dentre as variáveis analisadas, a Dívida Pública foi a que mais impactou a Dívida Pública, mostrando a sua importância na economia brasileira. / Mestre em Economia

A partir da década de 90 um novo modelo de concepção do papel do Estado e de suas funções na economia dominou o Estado brasileiro. Esse novo paradigma, conhecido como neoliberalismo, prometia dar fim a crise pela qual o país passava, ou melhor, o fim do processo de inflacionário, o retorno a estabilidade econômica e a retomada do crescimento. O receituário dessa política foi adotado pelo governo brasileiro, entretanto, mais de uma década se passou e além de não ter gerado o resultado prometido, transformou o orçamento público num mecanismo de transferência de renda das classes de renda mais baixas para as mais altas. Nesse sentido que este trabalho analisa a política orçamentária no Brasil no período de 1995-2005. O ponto central está em seu efeito distributivo a partir da análise quantitativa e qualitativa da elevação da carga tributária nacional e do gasto público. Essa leitura é feita a partir da análise do papel do Estado na economia, e a importância das mudanças desse paradigma e seu reflexo na acumulação do capital nos últimos 30 anos. / Since the nineties, a new model of the conception and of the economic functions of the state dominates Brazil’s State. This new paradigm, known as neoliberalism, promised to put an end to the crisis that the country suffered, or better, to put an end to the inflation process, to return to economic stability and to regenerate growth. The recipe of that policy was adopted by the Brazilian government, nevertheless, over a decade has passed and not only the promised outcomes have not been obtained, but they turned the fiscal budget into income transfer mechanism form the lower to the higher income classes. In that sense this dissertation analyzes the budget policy in Brazil during 1995-2005. The main point is the distributive effect following the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the raise in the country’s tax burden and in public expenses. This is done beginning from the analysis of the state’s role in the economy, the importance of the changes of that paradigm and its reflex on capital accumulation in the last thirty years.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-18T18:55:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 VALDENY BARROS.pdf: 474343 bytes, checksum: b3cc0ca508f080a1fba3e1144f70b0fa (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-07-10 / This work is about the creation and implementation of the Law of Fiscal Responsibility ("LRF", in brazilian portuguese and there forth mentioned as that), inserting it in the context of transformations of the State in Brazil. The aim of this research is the further reflection on this issue, thereby helping to prove the legitimacy of the political elements of fiscal adjustment, which implies no prioritization of social spending and preventing the progress of decentralization and autonomy of national units. Public policies are the States responses for the social issues and also mechanisms of legitimization of state action. These policies are hindered when occurs the LRF implementation. This guarantee's limitation of public or social policies are correlated with determinations of power's exercise and therefore the relations between social classes in capitalist society and its presence in the conduct of state apparatus. This study demonstrates that the State, from the relationship with currency, changes it's organization and will be "reformed", this time assuming a new role, a new legal and policy compliance, with effects on local level, especially in Maranhão sub-national State. The creation of a state legal requirement is a consequence of the restructuring of production, the reaction of work and action of legitimacy of the state when it implements the policy. The reform of the Brazilian State is justified because fiscal crisis that leads to adoption of measures of fiscal adjustment. The formation of republic in Brazil has always shown instable as well as its federal system, and the fiscal adjustment measures are deepening centralization of power in central government. Accordingly, the state of Maranhão, in spite of their economic weakness, is the leader in implementing fiscal adjustment of 90 years, adapting to the advent of the Law of Fiscal Responsibility since 2000. It is showing that there is a prioritization of expenditures with public debt at the expense of implementation of public policies, especially social policies. / O presente trabalho trata da criação e implementação da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF), inserindo-a no contexto das transformações do Estado no Brasil. A pesquisa desenvolvida teve o intuito de aprofundar a reflexão em torno desta questão, ajudando assim a revelar os elementos legitimadores da política de ajuste fiscal, que implica em não priorização dos gastos sociais e impedimento do avanço da descentralização e autonomia das subunidades nacionais. As políticas públicas são respostas do Estado às questões sociais e também mecanismos de legitimação da ação estatal. Estas políticas são obstaculizadas quando ocorre a implementação da LRF. Esta limitação na garantia das políticas públicas, ou políticas sociais, têm correlação com as determinações do exercício do poder e, portanto, com as relações entre as classes sociais na sociedade capitalista e sua presença na condução dos aparelhos estatais. Neste estudo demonstra-se que o Estado, a partir da relação orgânica com o capital, muda a sua organização e passa a ser reformado , momento este que assume um novo papel, uma nova conformação jurídicopolítica, com efeitos no plano local, precisamente na subunidade nacional que é o estado do Maranhão. O surgimento de uma exigência jurídica estatal é conseqüência do processo de reestruturação produtiva, da reação do trabalho e da ação de legitimação do Estado, quando este implementa as políticas públicas. A reforma do Estado brasileiro é justificada em face da crise fiscal que leva a adoção de medidas de ajuste fiscal. Demonstra-se que sempre foi instável a formação da república no Brasil, bem como o seu sistema federativo, e que as medidas de ajuste fiscal aprofundam uma centralização de poder no governo Central. Nesse sentido, o estado do Maranhão, a despeito de sua condição de fragilidade econômica, é protagonista na implementação do ajuste fiscal dos anos 90, adaptando-se ao advento da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal a partir do ano 2000. Conclui-se demonstrando que há uma priorização dos gastos com endividamento público em detrimento da execução das políticas públicas, principalmente as políticas sociais.

Les histoires de la pensée économique sont relativement discrètes à l’égard des économies politiques socialistes qui se développent en France au cours des deux décennies 1830 et 1840.La thèse se propose de réinvestir ces écrits afin de les inscrire dans une histoire de l’économie politique. La fiscalité est la porte d’entrée de cette enquête. Elle est pensée comme lieu de jonction entre espace politique et espace économique : la fiscalité est envisagée comme dispositif étatique susceptible de catalyser, d’encadrer et de désamorcer la puissance régulatrice du marché. S’intéresser à l’impôt doit ainsi permettre de rendre compte de visions articulées autour des interdépendances pensées par les socialistes entre l’État et le marché. La thèse porte sur deux grandes traditions.Au sein de l’économie politique saint-simonienne, incarnée entre autres par Barthélémy Prosper Enfantin, Michel Chevalier, Alphonse Decourdemanche, Emile et Isaac Pereire,l’impôt est appréhendé dans une perspective très fonctionnaliste. Il s’agit par l’impôt de configurer le marché en rééquilibrant les dotations matérielles et en activant la circulation des capitaux de manière à permettre la baisse du taux d’intérêt. Les saint-simoniens développent par ailleurs une théorie socio-économique de l’emprunt : le développement de l’endettement public est un moyen de socialiser le crédit et les capitaux. La deuxième tradition, celle des socialistes fraternitaires dont Louis Blanc, Pierre Leroux, Jean Reynaud, François Vidal et Constantin Pecqueur sont des représentants, réfute la théorie saint-simonienne de « l’emprunt public illimité » et propose la réforme des institutions économiques et commerciales susceptibles de fournir à la jeune République les ressources nécessaires pour financer le « droit au travail » sans avoir recours ni à l’impôt, ni à l’emprunt.Les arguments développés s’inscrivent dans des économies politiques singulières quimanifestent chacune à leur manière leur opposition à l’économie politique libérale : une économie politique capacitaire (saint-simonienne) incarnée dans un discours technique articulé aux débats financiers de l’époque, une économie politique républicaine (fraternitaire)caractérisée par un discours philosophique qui tente de réintégrer la question politique dans le traitement des affaires économiques. Réinventer la fiscalité pour réorganiser la société est un objectif important que se donnent les socialistes du XIX e siècle français. / Histories of economic thought are relatively discrete with regards to the socialist political economies which developed in France during the 1830s and 1840s. This dissertation aims to reconsider relevant writings before putting them into the context of the history of political economy. The tax system is the starting point of this study. It is thought of as the meeting point between the political and economic spheres: the tax system is envisaged as a state apparatus, able to catalyze, to structure and to neutralize the regulatory power of the market.An interest in tax thus takes into account socialist viewpoints revolving around the independencies between the State and the market. This dissertation focusses on two maintraditions. Firstly, in Saint-Simonian political economy, embodied amongst others by Barthélémy Prosper Enfantin, Michel Chevalier, Alphonse Decourdemanche, Emile and Isaac Pereire, tax was understood from a very functionalist perspective. It was through tax that the market was structured, by restoring balance to material funds and by activating the movement of capital in such a way as to decrease interest rate. Moreover, the Saint-Simonians developed a socio-economic theory of borrowing: the development of public debt was a means to socialize credit and capital. The second tradition, that of the fraternal socialists represented by Louis Blanc,Pierre Leroux, Jean Reynaud, François Vidal and Constantin Pecqueur, refuted the Saint-Simonian theory of “unlimited public borrowing”. It proposed the reform of the economic and commercial institutions likely to provide the young Republic with the necessary resources to fund the “right to work”, without recourse to tax or to borrowing.The arguments developed were part of singular political economies which demonstrated, eachin their own manner, their opposition to liberal political economy: a capability political economy (Saint-Simonian), manifested in the technical discourse articulated in the financialdebates of the time; a republican political economy (fraternal), characterized by the philosophical discourse which attempted to reintegrate politics into the treatment of economic affairs. The reinvention of the tax system in order to reorganize society was an important objective for the 19 th century French socialists.

This paper aims to explore the relationship of social spending and the economic development of the country or region. Work in the first, theoretical part deals with basic theories of economic growth and their view of the state expenditure on social policy. Due attention is also paid to the basic concepts and types of social policies that significantly affect the size of social spending in the marketing area. As part of the theoretical work will be fundamental characteristics of the measuring instruments for economic growth and social spending. In the second, analytical, part of the thesis will deal with empirical data comparing the economic development with the evolution of the size of social spending in several selected countries. The analysis of this part of the work will be characteristic of otherfactors, the relationship of economic growth and social spending determine, influence, and to some extent and explain, such as unemployment, public revenues and public state debt.

Les fonctions administratives du gouvernement consistent à fournir les services publics, et à opérer la gestion publique et administrative. Cela nécessite l’utilisation en continu d’importantes sommes d’argent. Or, le principal revenu provenant de la collecte des impôts ne suffit pas pour opérer les missions et les nécessaires activités de l’Etat. C’est la raison pour laquelle, celui-ci doit emprunter davantage aux institutions financières intérieures et extérieures. En Thaïlande, le premier emprunt fut créé à l’ère du Roi Rama V. Et après la Révolution siamoise de 1932, le pays commença à emprunter de plus en plus aux institutions financières internationales et aux gouvernements étrangers pour son développement. Ce sont les crises économiques mondiales qui ont obligé divers pays dans le monde à contracter la dette publique et qui ont fait accroître ladite dette en Thaïlande. La notion de gestion de la dette publique devient alors indispensable et, à cet égard, plusieurs pays ont rendu des lois spéciales. En Thaïlande, la Loi portant sur la gestion de la dette publique B.E. 2548 (2005) et la désignation d’un mandataire constitue la loi fondamentale autorisant le gouvernement à contracter la dette publique, et à la gérer diversement -en raison d’un changement de situation- comme la dette contractée pour le développement économique et social, pour la restructuration de la dette et la mise en œuvre de la politique sur les transactions financières en vue de réduire le risque de dette publique, etc. / The government, as the administration, is responsible for public services, public affairs and administrative missions. It is, therefore, necessary to spend a great number of money consecutively. The main income of the government earned by the tax collection is not enough for its missions and the other necessary things. That’s why it had to loan more and more money from the domestic and international financial institutions. In Thailand, money has been loaned since the reign of King Rama V. After the Siamese Revolution of 1932, Thailand has incurred more public debt from the international financial institutions and foreign governments for country’s development. Public debt of Thailand and different countries has enormously increased while the notion of public debt management has also developed and the special acts on public debt management have been issued in many countries, because of the necessity of incurring public debt of several countries as well as economic crisis happened around the world. In Thailand, the Public Debt Management Act B.E. 2548 (2005) is considered as the principal law authorizing the government to incur and manage public debt in various ways for adapting to changing circumstances such as public debt incurred for social and economic development, for debt restructuring and financial transaction used for reducing the risk on public debt, etc.

Diploma thesis deals with analysis of income and expenditure aspect of state budget, deficit and public debt during 2008-2013 period, following Global financial and economic crisis and its induced governmental countermeasures. It then explains Goal oriented budgeting implementation process into Ministry of defense for the same period. The first chapter is dedicated to explaining theoretical background of budgeting process and enumeration of basic budgeting methods. The second part deals with state budget, concrete income and expense analysis including state deficit and public debt. The last chapter describes Goal oriented budgeting implementation process into Ministry of defense and evaluation of its basic problems. The conclusion of the thesis combines the acquired knowledge and sets conclusions and recommendations.

The global economic and financial crisis resulted in worldwide rising government debt levels, especially from 2008 to 2011. This thesis focuses on the sovereign debt crisis in the European Union and illustrates its member countries' debt levels in the period from 2001 to 2011. Two main indicators are considered: accumulated sovereign debt and its share in GDP. The following part outlines main measures taken in order to decrease general debt level in the European Union. Furthermore a selection of various presented proposals is introduced. The last part of the thesis speculatively evaluates all of these instruments and indicates possible imperfections.

[pt] Eu desenvolvo um modelo de ciclo de vida para avaliar a importância relativa de vários determinantes de londo prazo da taxa de juros. O modelo é uma generalização de Gertler (1999), incluindo imperfeições no mercado de crédito e heterogeneidade entre trabalhadores para capturar totalmente os efeitos da transição demográfica. O modelo é calibrado para a economia brasileira, incluindo perfis para os gastos do governo, gastos com previdência, dívida pública, crescimento da produtividade e variáveis demográficas. O modelo explica 71 porcento da variação total na taxa de juros brasileira entre 2000 e 2019. Fatores demográficos, especialmente aumentos na expectativa de vida, são os principais determinantes da queda nas taxas de juros reais. Essas forças são parcialmente compensadas por aumentos na dívida pública e nos gastos com previdência. Além disso, o arcabouço sugere que as taxas de juros reais continuarão caindo nos próximos 20 anos, atingindo o patamar de 1.5 porcento a.a., apesar de aumentos razoáveis na dívida pública. No entanto, possíveis efeitos de prêmios de risco e juros globais nas taxas de juros domésticas não são incluídos na análise. / [en] I develop a life cycle model to evaluate the relative importance of several long-term drivers of real interest rates. The model is a generalization of Gertler (1999), including credit market imperfections and heterogeneity among workers to fully capture the effects of the demographic transition. I calibrate the model to the Brazilian economy, feeding it with profiles for government spending, public debt, productivity growth and demographic variables. The model explains 71 percent of the overall change in real interest rates in Brazil between 2000 and 2019. Demographic factors, especially increases in life expectancy, are the key drivers of the fall in real interest rates. These forces are partially compensated by increases in public debt and social security spending. Moreover, the framework suggests that real interest rates will keep falling over the next 20, reaching a level of 1.5 percent despite reasonable increases in government debt. However, possible effects of risk premia and global rates on domestic interest rates are absent from the analysis.