Trajectory planning constitutes an essential step for proper autonomous vehicles’performance. This work aims at defining and testing a stochastic approach providingsafe, length-optimal and comfortable trajectories accounting for road, model anddisturbance uncertainties. A Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) problemis formulated using a Linear Parameter Varying Bicycle Model, state-probabilisticconstraints and input constraints. The SMPC is transformed into a tractable quadraticoptimisation problem after assuming independent and gaussian uncertainties.The proposed trajectory planning methodology is intended to be implemented onlinein a Receding Horizon fashion in a real vehicle. Results are presented after computersimulatedtests have been carried out to study the influence of model uncertaintiesand SMPC parameters on the planned and executed trajectories in standard drivingsituations. Particularly, road crosswind is modelled, its effect on vehicles withdifferent steering characteristics is studied and it is considered for improved trajectoryplanning. The approach constitutes a promising method to provide robust trajectoriesto unmodeled errors reaching an equilibrium between conservativeness and quality ofthe solution. / Banplanering utgör ett väsentligt steg för riktiga autonoma fordons prestanda.Syftet med detta arbete är att definiera och testa stokastiska strategier som gersäkra, optimala och bekväma banor som tar hänsyn till vägen, modelbrus ochosäkerheter. En stokastisk Model Predictive Control (SMPC) problem är formuleratmed hjälp av Linear Parameter Varying Bicycle Model, tillstånds-sannolikhetsbivillkoroch inmatningsbivillkor. SMPC transformeras till ett lätthanterlig kvadratiskoptimeringsproblem efter oberoende gaussfördelade osäkerheter antagits.Den föreslagna banplaneringsmetoden är avsedd att implementeras online meden Receding Horizon för ett riktigt fordon. Resultatet är presenterat efterdatorsimulerade experiment har blivit genomförda för att studera påverkan avmodelosäkerheter och SMPC parametrar på den planerade och genomförda banorför standard körsituationer. I synnerhet, är sidovind modellerat, dens effekt påfordon med olika styrkaraktäristik är studerad och är tagen hänsyn till för förbättradbanplanering. Tillvägagångssättet utgör en lovande metod för att tillhandahållarobusta banor för icke-model fel som når en jämvikt mellan konservativitet och kvalitethos lösningen.

本文旨在探討隨機模型（stochastic model）下，最適干預政策的選擇問題。此一問題最旱由Poole在一有七Ｏ年的文章中 提出，但他所考慮的僅是封閉經濟下，最適貨幣政策工具的選擇。其後學者們乃陸續 以其文為藍本，君入供給面，考慮理性預期與資本移動等因素，並將模型擴充為開放 經濟模型。 因此本文擬分三大部分，第一部份是文獻的探討，將介紹隨機模型下有關理論的演進 。 第二部分， 較具代表性的模型，比較在不同的干預政策下，其結困的差異。 第三部分，分析不同目標函數下，最適干預政策間的衝突性，並兼論單一目標與多目 標函數對模型結論的影響。 最後一章則是結論。

A better way to improve understanding and quantification of nitrous oxide (N₂O) emitted from intensive maize cropping systems is to develop an advanced emissions measurement method This study developed an open path (OP) method to measure N₂O emissions from four adjacent maize plots managed by tillage practices of no-till (NT) and chisel plow (ChP), and different nitrogen (N) treatments from 2014 to 2016. Anhydrous ammonia (220 kg NH₃-N ha^-1) was applied in once or equally split (full vs. split rate) and applied in different timing (Fall vs. Spring). The spring N application occurred either before planting (pre-plant) or in season (side-dress). Emissions measurements were conducted by using the OP method (the scanning OP Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (OP-FTIR) + the gas point-sampling system + a backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) dispersion model) and static closed chamber methods. The performance and feasibility of the OP measurements were assessed by a sensitivity analysis, starting with errors associated with the OP-FTIR for calculating N₂O concentrations, and then errors associated with the bLS model for estimating N₂O emissions. The quantification of N₂O concentrations using the OP-FTIR spectrum was influenced by ambient humidity, temperature, and the path length between a spectrometer and a retro-reflector. The optimal quantitative method mitigated these ambient interference effects on N₂O quantification. The averaged bias of the calculated N₂O concentrations from the spectra acquired from wide ranges of humidity (0.5 – 2.0 % water vapor content), temperature (10 – 35 °C), and path length (100 – 135 meters) was 1.4 %. The precision of the OP-FTIR N₂O concentrations was 5.4 part per billion(3σ) in a stationary flow condition for a 30-minute averaging period. The emissions measurement from multiple sources showed that the field of interest was likely interfered by adjacent fields. Fields with low emission rates were more sensitive to the adjacent fields with high emissions, resulting in substantial biases and uncertainties. The minimum detection limit of the N₂O emission rates was 1.2 µg m^-2 s^-1 (MDL; 3σ). The OP measurements showed that the NT practice potentially reduced N₂O emission compared with ChP. Under the long-term NT treatments, the split-N rate application (110 kg NH₃-N ha^-1 in the fall and spring) resulted in lower N₂O emissions than the full application (220 kg NH₃-N ha^-1 in the fall). The management of NT coupled with split-N rate application minimized N₂O emissions among treatments in this study, resulting in N₂O-N losses of 3.8, 13.2, and 6.6 N kg ha^-1 over 9-, 35-, and 20-days after the spring NH₃ application in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively. The spring pre-plant N application in 2015 also resulted in higher N₂O emissions than the spring side-dress application in 2016, and the increased N₂O-N loss was corresponding to lower N recovery efficiency in 2015 measurements. A comparison of chamber and OP measurements showed that soil N₂O emissions were likely underestimated by 10x without considering the wind-induced effect on gas transport at the ground-atmospheric interface. This study showed that the OP method provides a great opportunity to study agricultural N₂O emissions as well as management optimization for the sustainability of the agroecosystems.

Ein der Biologie zugrunde liegender Prozess ist die Fortpflanzung. Einzeller wachsen dazu heran und teilen sich. Grundlage hierfür sind ausreichend Nahrung und Ressourcen, um die eigene Masse und alle Zellbestandteile, insbesondere die DNS, zu verdoppeln. Fehler bei der Wachstumsregulation oder der DNS-Verdopplung können schwerwiegende Folgen haben und stehen beim Menschen im Zusammenhang z.B. mit Krebs. In dieser Arbeit werden mathematische Modelle für die Mechanismen zur Wachstumsregulierung und DNS-Verdopplung in der Bäckerhefe, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, vorgestellt. Modellierung kann entscheident zum Verstehen von komplexen, dynamischen Systemen beitragen. Wir haben ein Modell für Einzellerwachstum entwickelt und leiten das Wachstumsverhalten von Zellkulturen von diesem Modell, mittels einer hierfür programmierten Software, ab. Außerdem haben wir ein Model für die Verdopplung der DNS entwickelt, um Auswirkungen verschiedener Aktivierungsmuster auf die Replikation zu testen. Zusätzlich wurde die Verlängerung entstehender DNS Stränge, Elongation, mit einem detaillierten, stochastischen Modell untersucht. Wir haben unsere Ergebnisse zur DNS-Verdopplung mit einer abschließenden Untersuchung ergänzt, die funktionelle Beziehungen von Genen aufzeigt, welche sich in der Nähe von Aktivierungsstellen der Verdopplung befinden. Folgende Einsichten in die komplexe Koordination von Wachstum und Teilung wurden gewonnen: (i) Wachstumskontrolle ist eine inhärente Eigenschaft von Hefezellpopulationen, welche weder Signale noch Messmechanismen benötigt, (ii) DNS Verdopplung ist robuster in kleinen Chromosomen mit hoher Dichte an Aktivierungsstellen, (iii) Elongation ist weitgehend uniform, weicht aber an genau definierten Stellen signifikant ab und (iv) katabole Gene häufen sich nahe der frühen Aktivierungsstellen und anabole Gene nahe der späten. Unsere Ergebnisse tragen zum Verständniss von zellulären Mechanismen zur Wachstumskontrolle und DNS-Verdopplung bei. / One of the most fundamental processes in biology is reproduction. To achieve this, single cellular organisms grow, proliferate and divide. The prerequisite for this is acquiring sufficient resources to double size and cellular components, most importantly the DNA. Defects in either sufficient gain in size or chromosomal doubling can be severe for the organism and have been related to diseases in humans, such as cancer. Therefore, the cell has developed sophisticated regulatory mechanisms to control the orderly fashion of growth and duplication. We have developed mathematical models to study systemic properties of size control and DNA replication in the premier eukaryotic model organism Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Modeling can help understanding the complex nature of dynamic systems. We provide a single cell model to explore size control. We deduced population behavior from the single cell model through multi-cell simulations using a tailor-made software. Also, we implemented an algorithm that simulates the DNA replication process to test the impact of different replication activation patterns. Additionally, elongation dynamics were assessed with a fine-grained stochastic model for the replication machinery motion. We complemented our analysis of DNA replication by studying the functional association of genes and replication origins. Our systems-level analysis reveals novel insights into the coordination of growth and division, namely that (i) size regulation is an intrinsic property of yeast cell populations and not due to signaling or size sensing, (ii) DNA replication is more robust in small chromosomes with high origin density, (iii) the elongation process is strongly biased at distinct locations in the genome and (iv) catabolic genes are over-represented near early origins and anabolic genes near late origins. Our results contribute to explaining mechanisms of size control and DNA replication.

<p>У докторској дисертацијиприказан је развој стохастичког модела оптимизације времена трајања циклуса производње у малим и средњим предузећима. Модел ће омогућити ефикасно праћење и анализу елемената врема циклуса производње у малим и средњим предузећима, у циљу оптимизације серијске производње и побољшања конкурентности у савременом пословању. Циљ је боље управљање производњом у малим и средљим предузећима као носиоцима привредног раста и развоја. Модел је примењен и експериментално доказан у три предузећа где је истраживање спроведено у периоду 2011-2014 године.</p> / <p>U doktorskoj disertacijiprikazan je razvoj stohastičkog modela optimizacije vremena trajanja ciklusa proizvodnje u malim i srednjim preduzećima. Model će omogućiti efikasno praćenje i analizu elemenata vrema ciklusa proizvodnje u malim i srednjim preduzećima, u cilju optimizacije serijske proizvodnje i poboljšanja konkurentnosti u savremenom poslovanju. Cilj je bolje upravljanje proizvodnjom u malim i sredljim preduzećima kao nosiocima privrednog rasta i razvoja. Model je primenjen i eksperimentalno dokazan u tri preduzeća gde je istraživanje sprovedeno u periodu 2011-2014 godine.</p> / <p>The Doctoral Dissertation presents the development of stochastic optimization model of production cycle time in small and medium size enterprises.The model will enable efficient tracking and analysis of production cycle time elements in small and medium size enterprises in order to optimize assenibly line production and to improve competitiveness in modern business.The aim is better production contol in small and medium size enterprisesas industial growth and development holders. The model was applied and proved experimentally in three enerprises where the research was caried out from 2011 to 2014.</p>

Cette thèse porte sur l'impact du changement climatique du à des gaz à effet de serre sur l'état et l'évolution du pergélisol dans le nord canadien. Le pergélisol se retrouve sur la moitie du territoire canadien et un changement de son état actuel se répercutera dans toutes les sphères d'activité, sur la biosphère et sur l'environnement en général. Malgré l'importance évidente du sujet, il n'y a pas une idée précise comment le pergélisol réagira au changement climatique et jusqu'où la couche pergélisolée sera perturbée. Cette thèse explore ce sujet en utilisant une approche méthodologique s’inspirant de celui du modèle canadien d'évolution de pergélisol (TTOP) et avec une approche théorique basée sur la théorie des systèmes neuronaux complexes. L’objectif général de cette thèse est d’améliorer le modèle canadien d’évolution du pergélisol (TTOP - Temperature on the Top Of Permafrost) créé par Smith et Riseborough en 1996, tant dans sa structure de calcul, que dans sa résolution spatiale et de déterminer l'évolution du pergélisol dans la zone d'étude pour la période 2010-2100. Cette zone est située dans le Bassin Mackenzie (T.N-O) sur un transect nord-sud de 1440 x 720 km. Le premier objectif de recherche est de produire les cartes des valeurs annuelles de température à la partie supérieure du pergélisol de 2010 à 2100 en utilisant un modèle amélioré d'évolution du pergélisol (TTOP-A). Par la suite, ces valeurs sont comparées à celles obtenues par Smith et Riseborough (1996). Les valeurs de température de l'air pour cette période sont fournies par les scénarios d'évolution climatique MCCG3 SRES A1B, MCCG3 SRES A2 et MCCG3 SRES B1. Dans un deuxième temps, cette thèse a pour objectif la production des cartes d'épaisseur de pergélisol jusqu'en 2100 à une résolution spatiale de 25 km. Plus précisément, on détermine l'évolution des valeurs d'épaisseur de pergélisol pour les trois scénarios climatiques mentionnés antérieurement. De plus, l'étude propose: i) une nouvelle méthode de désagrégation des données climatiques en utilisant un Modèle Stochastique Déterminé, ii) l'intégration de la carte de type de sol, iii) l'intégration des valeurs d'humidité dans le sol, iv) l'intégration des valeurs d'épaisseur de la couche nivale et v) l'intégration des données de télédétection (SSM/I). De façon générale, les résultats obtenus par le modèle TTOP-A révèlent que les valeurs moyennes de température à la surface du pergélisol suivent de près les valeurs de température de l’air et qu'elles sont semblables aux celles trouvées par Smith et Riseborough (1996) et Heginbottom et coll. (1995). De plus, les différences des valeurs de température à la surface de pergélisol entre 2010 et 2100 s'inscrivent dans l'écart des valeurs publié par le Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Évolution du Climat (GIEC, 2007). Concernant le deuxième objectif de cette thèse, la dynamique spatiotemporelle du pergélisol jusqu'en 2100 démontre que, dans la zone d'étude, la superficie perturbée par le réchauffement climatique sera de 37 %, 60 % et 29 % selon les scénarios MCCG3 SRES A1B, MCCG3 SRES A2 et MCCG3 SRES B1 respectivement. Selon les scénarios mentionnés antérieurement, la couche pergélisolée à l'intérieur de cette zone disparaîtra dans une proportion de 20 %, 32 % et 18 % respectivement. Ces résultats nous laissent croire que les prévisions faites par Smith et Riseborough ont été surévaluées dans le contexte de deux des trois scénarios climatiques actuels par rapport à celui de 1996. Finalement, cette étude démontre que la méthode de désagrégation des données en utilisant les réseaux neuronaux dans un Modèle Stochastique Déterminé donne de bons résultats et elle représente une option fiable qui se prête à des généralisations à grande échelle. / This thesis explores the potential impacts of a climate change due to the greenhouse gases on the state and the evolution of the permafrost in the Canadian North. The permafrost represents the half of the Canadian national territory and a change of its current state will echo in all spheres of activity, on the biosphere and on the environment generally. In spite of the evident importance of the subject, there is no precise idea as to how the permafrost will react to the climate change and to what extent the frozen layer will be disrupted. This thesis investigates this problem by using a methodological approach inspired by the Canadian model on the evolution of permafrost (TTOP) coupled with a theoretical approach based on the theory of the complex neuronal systems. The general objective of this thesis is to improve the Canadian model of evolution of permafrost (TTOP-Temperature one the Top Of Permafrost) created by Smith and Riseborough in 1996, its structure of computation, spatial resolution and to determine the state of the permafrost in the study area between 2010 and 2100. The study zone is situated in the Mackenzie Basin (N-W.T) on a north-south transect of 1440 by 720 km. The first objective of the research is to derive maps of the annual values of temperature on the top of the permafrost from 2010 to 2100 by using an improved dynamic model of the evolution of permafrost (TTOP-A). Thereafter, these values are compared with those obtained by Smith and Riseborough (1996). The values of the evolution of air temperature for this period are supplied by the climatic scénarios CGCM3 SRES A1B, CGCM3 SRES A2 and CGCM3 SRES B1. Secondly, this thesis has as an objective the production of the maps of the thickness of permafrost for 2100 with a spatial resolution of 25 km. More exactly, we determine the evolution of the values of thickness of permafrost for the three climatic scénarios mentioned above. Furthermore, the study proposes: i) a new method for downscaling of climate data by using a Determined Stochastic Model, ii) the integration of soil type, iii) the integration of the soil humidity, iv) the integration of the values of thickness of the snow layer and v) the integration of remote sensing data (SSM/I). As a rule, the results obtained by the TTOP-A model reveal that the mean values of temperature at the surface of the permafrost follow closely the values of air temperature and that they are similar to those found by Smith and Riseborough (1996) and Heginbottom and coll. (1995). Also, the differences of the values of temperature on the surface of permafrost between 2010 and 2100 are similar to the values published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Concerning the second objective of this thesis, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the permafrost until 2100 demonstrates that, in the study zone, the surface perturbed by global warming will be 37 %, 60 % and 29 % according to the scénarios CGCM3 SRES A1B, CGCM3 SRES A2 and CGCM3 SRES B1 respectively. The permafrost layer inside this zone will disappear by 20 %, 32 % and 18 % according to the scénarios mentioned before. These results lead us to believe that the estimations made by Smith and Riseborough were overvalued in the context of two of three current climates scénarios compared to that of the 1996. Finally, this study demonstrates that the method of downscaling of climate data using the neuronal network within a Determined Stochastic Model gives good results and it represents a reliable option which lends itself to large-scale generalizations. / Les fichiers video (d'animation) sont dans un format Windows Media (.wmv)

Submitted by YURI PRADO DE SOUZA (yuriprado.uff@gmail.com) on 2018-10-17T22:40:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação v60 - final.pdf: 1880394 bytes, checksum: 1c4ca28a4089a492a49b54e291c33dea (MD5) / Rejected by Pamella Benevides Gonçalves null (pamella@feg.unesp.br), reason: Solicitamos que realize correções na submissão seguindo as orientações abaixo: Rever a ordenação dos elementos pré-textuais ... capa, folha de rosto ... ficha catalográfica ... • A capa e ficha catalográfica não são consideradas para contagem de páginas. a paginação deve aparecer no canto superior direito a partir da introdução, realizei a contagem das páginas e seu trabalho deve com o número (14)*, após você precisa atualizar a numeração na ficha catalográfica, nas listas e no sumário. • Resumo: Apenas palavra Resumo e Abstract devem ser centralizada; o resumo deve ser em parágrafo único. (favor ver exemplo no template ou diretrizes) o As palavras-chave e keyword devem ser separadas entre si por ponto final e também finalizadas por ponto. (favor ver exemplo no template ou diretrizes) • A lista de figuras existem algumas que não aparece o título, a numeração das figuras devem ser continuas independente do capitulo. • Sumário: deve ter os mesmo destaques tipográfico que as seções do trabalho, deve ser alinhado à esquerda (veja exemplo no template ou diretrizes) • Favor revisar as todos os indicativos de seção em seu trabalho e no sumário • INDICATIVO DE SEÇÃO Os títulos das seções devem começar na parte superior da folha e separados do texto que os sucede por um espaço de 1,5 entrelinhas. Da mesma forma, os títulos das subseções devem ser separados do texto que os precede e que os sucede por por um espaço de 1,5 entrelinhas. Os títulos das seções devem ser destacados tipograficamente, da primária a quinária. As seções primárias por serem as principais divisões de texto, devem iniciar em folha distinta, no final dos indicativos de seção não tem ponto final exemplo 7 MODELO DE REFERÊNCIA (seção primária) - caixa alta/negrito 7.1 PUBLICAÇÃO PERIÓDICA (seção secundária) - caixa alta sem negrito 7.1.1 Publicação periódica no todo (seção terciária) negrito 7.1.1.1 Artigo de periódico (seção quaternária) - sem negrito 7.1.1.1. Com autor pessoal (seção quinária) - Itálico e negrito • Qualquer que seja o tipo de ilustração (figuras, desenhos, gráficos, diagramas,fluxogramas, fotografias, mapa, planta, quadro, imagem entre outros) sua identificação (título) aparece na parte superior com letra tamanho 12; o Na parte inferior, Tamanho da letra 10, indicar a fonte consultada (elemento obrigatório, mesmo que seja produção do próprio autor), notas e outras informações necessárias à sua compreensão. o Devem conter a fonte mesmo que elaborada pelo autor. o Ex: Fonte: Autor Fonte: Autoria própria (favor ver exemplo no template ou diretrizes) • As fontes das ilustrações, tabelas e quadros não podem ser links . Areferência deve ser informada ao final, seguindo os padrões da ABNT.Para indicar a fonte, deve ser colocada a autoria e o ano entre parênteses. Ex.: Martins (2010). Quando uma referência for retirada de um meio eletrônico deve-se identificar uma autoria para o que é visualizado na página; se não houver título, escrever uma pequena descrição do que foi visto e seguir com os dados: disponível em:<endereço eletronico> . Acesso em: xx mes xxxx. A autoria pode ser uma pessoa física, uma Instituição, uma empresa, uma pessoa jurídica e até o nome do próprio site. Ex.: ECOVILAS. Condomínios autossustentados e permaculturais. Disponível em: <http://www.ecoovilas.com/projetos/permacultura>. Acesso em: 10 out. 2017. Será colocado na Fonte: Ecovilas (2017) • Referências. A palavra Referências deve ser centralizada, e não conter numeração de seção; As referencias devem ser justificadas, espaço simples com um espaço simples(enter) entre elas. • Sobre a elaboração das referencias e citações e formatação favor solicitar ajuda com URGÊNCIA a bibliotecária Juciene (juciene.pedroso@unesp.br) Mais informações acesse o link: http://www2.feg.unesp.br/Home/Biblioteca21/diretrizes-2016.pdf Agradecemos a compreensão. on 2018-10-18T12:54:42Z (GMT) / Submitted by YURI PRADO DE SOUZA (yuriprado.uff@gmail.com) on 2018-10-19T18:53:48Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação v60 - final.pdf: 1880394 bytes, checksum: 1c4ca28a4089a492a49b54e291c33dea (MD5) Dissertação v-61 formatado2.pdf: 1810118 bytes, checksum: 4638b9426aac62a064b565b38ffda481 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamella Benevides Gonçalves null (pamella@feg.unesp.br) on 2018-10-19T19:04:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 souza_yp_me_guara.pdf: 1810118 bytes, checksum: 4638b9426aac62a064b565b38ffda481 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-19T19:04:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 souza_yp_me_guara.pdf: 1810118 bytes, checksum: 4638b9426aac62a064b565b38ffda481 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-27 / Neste trabalho propõe-se uma abordagem para o Problema de Balanceamento de Linhas de Montagem (do inglês, Assembly Line Balancing Problem - ALBP) para aumentar a eficiência de uma indústria montadora de veículos. O ALBP caracteriza-se como um problema de sequenciamento de tarefas em estações de trabalho classificado como um problema de Otimização Combinatória NP-difícil e, portanto, a solução exata do problema em ambientes reais geralmente implica em elevado custo computacional. Para resolver o ALBP, foram formulados um modelo matemático de otimização inteira mista para obtenção de soluções determinísticas e um modelo estocástico com recurso que considera a incerteza dos tempos de execução das tarefas pelos operadores. A motivação para o desenvolvimento do presente trabalho decorre da observação de interrupções constantes do fluxo de produção nesta indústria, atribuídas às mais diversas naturezas, e que causavam transtornos e elevados níveis de estresse aos trabalhadores. Ambos os modelos, determinístico e estocástico, aumentaram a capacidade de produção de 196 unidades/dia para 245 e 233 unidades/dia, respectivamente. O modelo estocástico aumentou o tempo de ciclo CT em 5,6% quando comparado ao modelo determinístico, embora diminua a capacidade efetiva em 4,8% Porém, não considerar a incerteza no tempo de execução das tarefas pode diminuir a quantidade produzida em até 10,6%. Contrariamente ao entendimento comum em linhas de montagem, este trabalho conclui que reduzir os tempos de ociosidade aos níveis mínimos é prejudicial à produtividade de linhas de montagem. Isto se deve ao fato de que uma parcela do tempo atribuído à ociosidade dos operadores, na verdade contêm um tempo adicional gerado pela incerteza do tempo de execução das tarefas. Os resultados sugerem que a abordagem do ALBP sob incerteza contribui para o aumento dos índices de capacidade operacional da empresa. Devido ao grande esforço computacional necessário para a solução dos modelos de otimização propostos (determinístico e estocástico), não se consegue resolver, em um tempo computacional razoável, exemplares de dimensões reais do problema. Em vista disto, o trabalho propõe também uma heurística para a solução do ALBP visando minimizar o tempo de ciclo. Experimentos computacionais sugerem que a heurística proposta obtém resultados razoáveis para grandes exemplares do problema em um tempo computacional pequeno / This work proposes solution approaches to the Assembly Line Balancing Problem (ALBP) to increase the efficiency of a vehicle assembler industry. The ALBP is characterized as a task sequencing in workstations which is classified as a NP-hard Combinatorial Optimization problem and, therefore, the exact solution of the problem in real environments usually implies a high computational cost. In order to solve the ALBP, a mathematical model of mixed integer optimization to obtain deterministic solutions and a stochastic model with resource that considers the uncertainty of the execution times of the tasks by the operators were formulated. The motivation for the development of this work stems from the constant interruptions of the production flow in this industry, attributed to the most diverse natures, which cause disorders and high levels of stress to the workers. The deterministic and stochastic models increased the production capacity from 196 units / day to 245 and 233 units / day, respectively. The stochastic model increased the cycle time by 5.6% when compared to the deterministic model, although it reduced the effective capacity by 4.8%, which is equivalent to 12 vehicles / day. However, not considering the uncertainty in task execution times can decrease the amount produced by up to 10.6% or 26 vehicles / day. Contrary to the most acceptable idea, this work concludes that reducing idle times to minimum levels is detrimental to assembly line productivity. This is due to the fact that a portion of the time attributed to the idleness of the operators actually contains an additional time generated by the uncertainty of the execution time of the tasks. The results suggest that the approach of the ALBP under uncertainty contributes to the increase of the indices of operational capacity of the company. Due to the great computational effort required to solve the proposed optimization models (deterministic and stochastic), it is not possible to solve real instances of the problem in a reasonable computational time. In view of this, this work also proposes a heuristic for the ALBP solution in order to minimize the cycle time. Computational experiments suggest that the proposed heuristic obtains reasonable results for large instances of the problem in a small computational time

La conception des structures assemblées nécessite de disposer d'outils de simulation prédictifs permettant de minimiser les écarts entre les comportements réel et simulé de ces structures. Et ce, d'autant plus que les exigences en terme de performance du système sont élevées et qu'une conception optimale est recherchée. Lors du dimensionnement des structures assemblées, la pratique généralement adoptée en bureau d'étude consiste à définir un coefficient de sécurité permettant de tenir compte de la variabilité du comportement réel de ces structures. L'inconvénient est de conduire nécessairement à un surdimensionnement qui peut aller à l'encontre des objectifs de dimensionnement optimal de ces structures. Les liaisons sont le siège de phénomènes non-linéaires tels que le contact ou le frottement et différentes sources d'incertitude induisent une variabilité sur les caractéristiques dynamiques réelles des liaisons. Malgré les capacités des calculateurs actuels, la prise en compte conjointe des phénomènes non linéaires et des incertitudes lors de la simulation de structures assemblées complexes reste difficilement envisageable par une approche directe. L'objectif de ce travail est de proposer une approche pragmatique de caractérisation du comportement vibratoire des structures légères assemblées en tenant compte de la variabilité des paramètres des liaisons. L'intérêt de cette approche est de pouvoir être intégrée dans une phase de dimensionnement robuste. On peut ainsi envisager de dimensionner une solution d'amortissement des vibrations d'une structure assemblée en tenant compte de la variabilité du comportement réel des liaisons de cette structure. Ce travail étudie d'abord le comportement dynamique d'une structure légère réelle afin d'identifier un modèle nominal «juste suffisant» des liaisons considérées. Une approche non intrusive de caractérisation du comportement vibratoire d'une structure en présence de paramètres incertains est ensuite proposée. Cette approche, intitulée approche SMR (pour Stochastic Model Reduction), exploite le fait que la variabilité des vecteurs propres d'une structure est généralement d'un ordre de grandeur inférieur à la variabilité des fréquences propres associées ce qui permet de réduire considérablement le coût de calcul de l'approche tout en gardant une bonne précision sur l'estimation des fréquences propres aléatoires de la structure. Le principe de l'approche est alors d'adapter la modélisation stochastique à chaque fréquence propre aléatoire en fonction d'une exigence de précision globale sur l'ensemble des fréquences propres aléatoires recherchées. Le point clé de cette approche consiste à identifier le modèle stochastique adapté à chaque configuration de fréquence propre, pour cela un indicateur sans coût de calcul supplémentaire est proposé. Finalement, un modèle stochastique des liaisons de la structure considérée est proposé et l'approche SMR est utilisée dans un processus d'optimisation basé sur le principe du maximum de vraisemblance pour identifier les paramètres de ce modèle. Cette dernière étape de la démarche proposée permet alors de caractériser le comportement vibratoire de structures assemblées constituées de nombreuses liaisons en tenant compte de la variabilité du comportement de chacune des liaisons. La démarche mise en place dans le cadre de cette thèse est alors concrétisée par la proposition d'une stratégie originale de réduction robuste des vibrations d'une structure assemblée légère. / Predictive models are needed to properly design assembled structures. The main issue with this kind of structure is to deal with non-linear phenomena as contact or friction while considering sources of uncertainties mainly responsible for the deviation between the effective behavior of the structure and results from deterministic simulations. This work aims to provide a pragmatic approach to characterize the vibrational behavior of light assembled structures considering the variability of parameters of the joints. This approach would be useful for robust design of solutions, such as solutions for damping vibrations, dedicated to assembled structures and taking into account the variability of the real behavior of each joint.In this work, the dynamical behavior of an actual light structure is studied in order to identify a "just sufficient" nominal model of the considered joints. A non intrusive approach is then proposed to reduce the vibrational stochastic model of a structure with random parameters is then proposed. This approach, referred as the SMR approach (for Stochastic Model Reduction approach), takes advantage of the order of variability of random eigenvectors which is usually lower than the variability of corresponding random eigenfrequencies. It then allows to significantly reduce the computational cost for a given accuracy to estimate the structure random eigenfrequencies. The cornerstone of this approach is to adapt the stochastic modeling to each random eigenfrequency depending on a global accuracy requirement on the whole set of sought random eigenfrequency. The key point is then to identify the stochastic model used for each configuration of random eigenfrequency. A computationally free indicator is then proposed. Finally, a stochastic mechanical model of the joints of the studied structure is proposed. The SMR approach is used in an optimization process based on the maximum likelihood principle to identify the parameters of this stochastic model. This last step allows to characterize the vibrational behavior of assembled structures involving many joints taking into account the variability of each joints. This work is then concluded by applying the proposed approach to the design of an original strategy for robust reduction of vibration of light structures.

The description of the effects of the wind meandering in the scalar dispersion is a challenging task, since this type of flow represents a physical state characterized by multiple scales. In this study, a Lagrangian stochastic diffusion model is derived to describe the scalar transport during the horizontal wind meandering phenomenon, occurring in a PBL. The model is derived from the linearization of the Langevin equation and employs a heuristic functional form, which represents the autocorrelation functions of the meandering. The new solutions, which describe the longitudinal and lateral wind components, were used to simulate two experiments of contaminants dispersion in low-wind conditions, INEL (USA) and GRAZ (Austria). The results of the comparison indicate that the new model reproduces fairly well the observed concentrations of contaminants and, therefore, satisfactorily describes the enhanced dispersion due to the presence of meandering. / Descrever os efeitos provocados pelo meandro do vento na dispersão de escalares é uma tarefa desafiadora, uma vez que este tipo de escoamento representa um estado físico caracterizado por múltiplas escalas. Neste trabalho, deriva-se um modelo estocátisco Lagrangiano para descrever a dispersão de escalares, na camada limite planetária, durante o fenômeno de meandro do vento horizontal. O modelo é derivado a partir da linearização da equação de Langevin e emprega uma forma funcional heurística, que representa as funções de autocorrelação do meandro. As novas soluções, que descrevem as componentes longitudinais e laterais do vento, foram empregadas para simular dois experimentos de dispersão de contaminantes em condições de vento fraco, INEL (USA) e GRAZ (Áustria). Os resultados das comparações indicam que o novo modelo pode ser usado para reproduzir as concentrações observadas de contaminantes e, portanto descreve de forma satisfatória a difusão reforçada provocada pelo meandro do vento.

Cette thèse porte sur la caractérisation numérique et la modélisation stochastique de l’accélération du fluide pour l’écoulement en canal à grand nombre de Reynolds. La motivation concerne l’observation et l’analyse des effets de l’intermittence liés aux interactions à longue portée à travers le canal. Dans la première partie, l’accélération est étudiée par simulation numérique directe pour trois différents nombres de Reynolds (180, 590 et 1000). La lognormalité de la norme de l’accélération est observée quelle que soit la distance à la paroi. Un profil universel de la norme de l’accélération est également recherché par analyse dimensionnelle. La seconde partie présente une modélisation stochastique de l’accélération basée sur la décomposition norme/orientation. Le modèle stochastique pour la norme s’appuie sur un processus de fragmentation afin de représenter les interactions à longue portée à travers le canal. Pour l’orientation, l’évolution vers l’isotropie lorsque la distance à la paroi augmente (observée par la DNS) est reproduite grâce à un modèle de marche aléatoire sur une sphère. Ces modèles ont été appliqués à l’approche LES-SSAM (Stochastic Subgrid Acceleration Model) introduite par Sabel’nikov, Chtab et Gorokhovski. Nos calculs montrent que les estimations de la vitesse moyenne, du spectre d’énergie, des contraintes de l’écoulement et de la non-gaussianité des statistiques de l’accélération peuvent être améliorées de façon significative par rapport à la LES classique. L’intérêt de l’approche LES-SSAM, donnant un accès vers la structure intermittente de sous-maille, est illustré dans la dernière partie, par l’étude du transport de particules inertielles ponctuelles par l’écoulement de canal. Cette étude commence par l’analyse par DNS de l’influence des structures de paroi sur la dynamique des particules / The main objective of this thesis is to observe numerically and to analyze the effects of intermittency in a high Reynolds number turbulent channel flow. To this end, the thesis is focused on characterization and stochastic modelling of the fluid acceleration in such a flow, with emphasis on long-range interactions across the channel. In the first part, the acceleration is studied using DNS for three Reynolds numbers (180, 590 et1000). It is observed that the norm of acceleration is log-normal whatever the wall distance is. The universal form of scaling law for the acceleration is proposed by dimensional analysis. In the second part, the acceleration is simulated stochastically, assuming the norm/orientation decomposition. The stochastic model for the norm is based on the fragmentation process in order to represent the long-range interactions across the channel. The orientation is simulated by random walk on a sphere in order to reproduce the relaxation towards isotropy with increasing the wall distance. This was observed preliminary in our DNS. These models were applied in the framework of LES-SSAM approach (Stochastic Subgrid AccelerationModel), which was introduced by Sabel’nikov, Chtab and Gorokhovski and assessed in the case of the box turbulence. Our computations showed that the mean velocity, the energy spectra, the viscous and turbulent stresses, as well as the non-gaussianity of acceleration statistics can be considerably improved in comparison with standard LES. The advantage of the LES-SSAM approach, which accounts for intermittency on subgrid scales, is demonstrated in the last part of this thesis. Here the transport of inertial point wise particles was studied by DNS and by LES-SSAM. The influence of wall structures on the particle’s dynamics is analyzed.