Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T21:00:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 4 Eduardo Menescal Lustosa Longo.pdf.jpg: 10145 bytes, checksum: b065ece0a6050c28545e0c2004a42402 (MD5) Eduardo Menescal Lustosa Longo.pdf.txt: 40329 bytes, checksum: 1026ba29309ee769eab96eae93bebd92 (MD5) Eduardo Menescal Lustosa Longo.pdf: 273765 bytes, checksum: c3f0204a9f073bb4276db2a68130c0cb (MD5) license.txt: 4886 bytes, checksum: a7c9cfe8632065c9656e1d827d849400 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-01-29T00:00:00Z / In this dissertation, we assess the application of pairs trading strategy in the Brazilian stock market. Differently from other papers about the same theme, we built synthetic asset from a linear relationship between stock prices. Accordingly to Burgeois and Minko (2005), we applied the Johansen methodology to identify stock pairs to be evaluated. After identifying cointegrated stock pairs, in order to filter out nonstationary synthetic assets, we did the DF-GLS and KPSS tests and removed those with unit root in the time series. Thereafter, we simulate the strategy (backtesting) in the selected pairs and in order to find the best results parameters, we optimized the results using different formation periods, trading periods and entry, exit and stop-loss parameters. To assure the most close to reality backtesting, we included in the results the brokerage, exchange and stock loan fees. In addition we added one day lag to trade after an order has triggered. / Neste trabalho, verificamos viabilidade de aplicação da estratégia de pairs trading no mercado acionário brasileiro. Diferentemente de outros estudos do mesmo tema, construímos ativos sintéticos a partir de uma combinação linear de preços de ações. Conforme Burgeois e Minko (2005), utilizamos a metodologia de Johansen para a formação dos pares a serem testados. Após a identificação de pares cointegrados, para assegurar a estacionaridade do ativo sintético contruído a partir da relação linear de preços das ações, utilizamos os testes DF-GLS e KPSS e filtramos àqueles que apresentavam raiz unitária em sua série de tempo. A seguir, simulamos a estratégia (backtesting) com os pares selecionados e para encontrar os melhores parâmetros, testamos diferentes períodos de formação dos pares, de operação e de parâmetros de entrada, saída e stop-loss. A fim de realizarmos os testes de forma mais realista possível, incluímos os custos de corretagem, de emolumentos e de aluguel, além de adicionar um lag de um dia para a realização das operações

The aim of the thesis was assess the usefulness of different methods of technical and fundamental analysis in the trading of securities on the stock exchange. Choose the appropriate investment strategy for a particular industry.First has been performed a calculation of the theory efficient markets. For this purpose has been used two tests, correlation tests and runs test. The theory of market efficiency was demonstrated. But still has been performed the calculation of active strategies.Then was made the technical analysis. We used moving averages and oscillators, RSI, ROC and momentum. Based on these tests, we can´t select an appropriate investment strategy.Final test was carry out with using fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis consist from testing addiction of revenue at coefficient alfa. Sector services shown 0. And at other sectors amount to possitive values. In last of all I advised pasive strategy.

The subject of this thesis is a technical analysis as a specific method for prediction of the future trend of equities. The topic is introduced by an analysis of investment opportunities in markets in the Czech Republic and in the world, by a comparison of analytical methods. The main part consists of exploration and description of selected indicators of technical analysis. On their basis business strategies are created and reflected in automated trading systems. These strategies are subject of testing on historical data and of subsequent optimization to maximize potential profitability. The results of testing are summarized and evaluated in the final phase of this thesis that also analyzes advantages and shortcomings of the technical analysis and gives an idea for further investigation.

This thesis is dedicated to the stock markets issue. Its main aim was to assess the effectiveness of the stock market and choose an appropriate investment strategy. To this purpose, the 5 industries of U.S. stock market were chosen, which served as a data base for all applied methods. The thesis presents the results of correlation and runs tests verifying the weak form of market efficiency, the results of fundamental analysis and of active strategies simulation as well. The final part is focused on creating of investment portfolio, which was chosen as the most appropriate investment strategy of the refenrence data set.

The purpose of this thesis was to analyze selected sectors of the stock exchange through methods of technical and fundamental analysis and to find the most appropriate investment strategy based on the results. At first were subjected to corell and runs tests. These tests should have proven or disproven the existence of weak form of efficiency. In the fundamental analysis was chosen the method of comparation of alpha coefficient and average monthly revenues. The technical analysis tested of moving averages and monitoring the signals using oscillators. The last step was a comparison of investment methods and strategies, found investment strategy and made a investment porfolio.

In this work was evaluated the effectiveness of artificial neural networks in trading on the stock markets. The subject of the work was the process of optimizing parameters of artificial neural networks, the resulting predictive efficiency was determined on the basis of the application being optimized parameters of neural networks.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:44:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1401888 bytes, checksum: b42ad9ebc33bc9b9e8aa504e4476c14e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-04-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This work deepens the discussion in the Technical Analysis field, aligning it premises to the theoretical framework of Behavioral Finance. In this purpose, this paper aimed to make, for the period between the years of 2007 and 2008, an empirical study of the brazilian stock market in the light of Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance, as well as verifying the performance of technical index as auxiliary instrument for the decision taking. This way, the work is divided in two parts. In the first part, adopting the complementarity hypothesis of behavioral-technique approach in the process of analysis and taking of decision in the stock market, is aimed to establish a relation between Technical Analysis (Dow Theory and Elliott Waves Theory) and Behavioral Finance assumptions in the interpretation of the subprime crisis in the Brazilian stock market, through a documentary research with referring information of the years 2007 and 2008, crisis development period. The results had evidenced the utility of these theories, not only for the analysis of the subprime crisis consequences, as, also, for the examination of financial market agent s behavior in a historical perspective of larger reach. In the second part, adopting the hypothesis that the technical index are capable to assist the investors in the process of decision taking, had been refined the performances of the Exponential Moving Average, Moving Average Convergence/Divergence, Relative Force Index, Stochastic and Directional System, using as base, Brazilian s stock market data referring to the year of 2007. The research results demonstrated that the Assertiveness (A) of the purchase signals is superior to the Assertiveness (A) of the sales signals the results had demonstrated as well, the uselessness of Directional System (DS) as beeper of the market s predominant trend. / Este trabalho aprofunda a discussão no campo de estudos da Análise Técnica, alinhando suas premissas ao arcabouço teórico das Finanças Comportamentais. Neste intuito buscou-se realizar, para o período compreendido entre os anos de 2007 e 2008, um estudo empírico do mercado brasileiro de ações à luz da Análise Técnica e das Finanças Comportamentais, bem como verificar o desempenho de indicadores técnicos como instrumento auxiliar para a tomada de decisão. Desta forma, o trabalho encontra-se dividido em duas partes. Na primeira parte, adotando a hipótese de complementaridade das abordagens técnica-comportamental no processo de análise e tomada de decisão no mercado de ações, busca-se estabelecer uma relação entre os pressupostos da Análise Técnica (Teoria Dow e Teoria da Ondas de Elliott) e das Finanças Comportamentais na interpretação da crise subprime no mercado de ações brasileiro, através de uma pesquisa documental com informações referentes aos anos de 2007 e 2008, período de desenvolvimento da crise. Os resultados evidenciaram a utilidade destas teorias, não só para a análise dos reflexos da crise subprime, como, também, para o exame do comportamento dos agentes do mercado financeiro numa perspectiva histórica de maior alcance. Na segunda parte, adotando a hipótese de que os indicadores técnicos são capazes de auxiliar os investidores no processo de tomada de decisão, foram apurados os desempenhos dos indicadores Média Móvel Exponencial, Convergência/Divergência da Média Móvel, Índice de Força Relativa, Estocástico e Sistema Direcional, tomando como base dados do mercado de ações brasileiro referentes ao ano de 2007. Os resultados encontrados demonstraram que a Assertividade (A) dos sinais de compra é superior à Assertividade (A) dos sinais de venda, bem como apontaram a inutilidade do Sistema Direcional (SD) enquanto sinalizador da tendência predominante do mercado.

Partindo dos conceitos estabelecidos pela Hipótese dos Mercados Eficientes (HME), a qual questiona a validade da Análise Gráfica, e considerando as críticas feitas à HME pelos defensores das assim chamadas Finanças Comportamentais, e outros, este estudo procurou detectar a existência de uma relação entre os sinais gráficos observados no dia-a-dia do mercado de ações brasileiro e as tendências que lhes sucedem, durante um período de 8 anos, para um número de papéis. Os resultados obtidos neste trabalho evidenciam a existência de tal relação, sugerindo a validade da utilização da Análise Gráfica como instrumento para a previsão de preços no mercado de ações brasileiro, no período considerado. / Based on the principles established by the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which argues that the Technical Analysis is of no value in order to predict future prices of securities, and considering the criticism to the EMH by the advocates of the so called Behavioral Finance, and others, this work tried to detect the existence of a relationship between the graphic signals observed day by day in the Brazilian stock market and the trends which happen after these signals, within a period of 8 years, for a number of securities. The results obtained from this study offer evidence of the existence of such relationship, suggesting the validity of the Technical Analysis as an instrument to predict security prices in the Brazilian stock market within that period.

Submitted by Neusa Fagundes (neusa.fagundes@unioeste.br) on 2018-03-08T14:52:34Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Michel_Marques2017.pdf: 2867420 bytes, checksum: 53caf71d521e72787fb224c798d1dcde (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-08T14:52:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Michel_Marques2017.pdf: 2867420 bytes, checksum: 53caf71d521e72787fb224c798d1dcde (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-11 / This dissertation aims to apply a scenario simulation model into the stock market, by using fuzzy logic in fundamentalist indicators to define the asset to be invested and technical analysis to determine the best timing to invest. The chosen model of scenario simulation foresees 5 steps, the first one being previously achieved by Rojo’s (2014) study and the others being applied throughout the fourth chapter or this research. Particularly, during the application of the second step of the model, presented over chapter 4.1, the fuzzy logic was applied as the competitive intelligence tool in order to support the analysis of 5 fundamental indicators. Therefore, as for the objective, this research is exploratory, with a quantitative and qualitative approach, and the research universe is compound of 10 shares that belong to the civil construction subsector and are part of the Small Cap index. Regarding to the temporal perspective, it was adopted the period between 18/11/09 and 27/08/17 to proceed with fundamental analysis and the period between 28/08/17 and 24/11/17 to apply technical analysis. During the application of fundamentalist analysis, the data were retrieved from Economática basis, meanwhile for the application of technical analysis the information was extracted from the Protrader web software that is provided by some brokers at no cost. At the end of the research, the general objective was achieved and it was presented a practical and scientifically grounded proposal that may be used by other investors, who may adapt several research points in order to attend their different profiles, as exemplified in the final considerations of this paper. One of the main limitations of this research arises from the fact that the present proposal could not be evaluated in terms of obtained results, mainly due to the time needed to perform such evaluation. / Essa dissertação visa aplicar um modelo de simulação de cenários no mercado de ações, utilizando lógica fuzzy em indicadores fundamentalistas para definir o(s) ativo(s) a ser(em) investido(s) e análise técnica para determinar o melhor momento de investir. O modelo utilizado para a simulação de cenários prevê 5 etapas, sendo que a primeira delas já fora realizada previamente no estudo de Rojo (2014) e as demais são aplicadas ao longo do quarto capítulo desse trabalho. Em particular durante a aplicação do segundo nível do modelo, discutido ao longo do capítulo 4.1, recorreu-se à lógica fuzzy como ferramenta de inteligência competitiva que visa auxiliar na análise dos 5 indicadores fundamentalistas. Dessa forma, essa pesquisa tem objetivo de ser exploratória, com abordagem qualitativa e quantitativa e o universo da pesquisa é composto de 10 ações pertencentes ao subsetor de construção civil e que fazem parte do índice Small Cap. Quanto à perspectiva temporal, foi considerado o período entre 18/11/09 e 27/08/17 para proceder com a análise fundamentalista e o período entre 28/08/17 e 24/11/17 para aplicação da análise técnica. Durante a aplicação da análise fundamentalista os dados foram extraídos da base Economática, enquanto que para aplicação da análise técnica foi utilizado as informações disponíveis no software Protrader Web que é fornecido gratuitamente por algumas corretoras. Ao final do trabalho, o objetivo geral foi alcançado e foi apresentado uma proposta prática e cientificamente fundamentada que pode ser reaplicada por outros investidores, sendo que esses podem adaptar diversos pontos da pesquisa de forma a atender seus diferentes perfis, conforme exemplificado nas considerações finais do trabalho. Uma das principais limitações da pesquisa decorre do fato que a presente proposta não pôde ser avaliada em função dos resultados obtidos, devido principalmente ao tempo necessário para fazer tal avaliação.

The goal of this master's thesis is to evaluate the successfulness of the strategies' portfolio and of trading and trending indicators, which are parts of the portfolio, through this evaluation. The theoretical part concerns with the key principles of the foreign exchange market which the portfolio is created for. After that, the individual technical indicators, which are used in the analytical part of the thesis, are analyzed in detail. Then in the following part, the development process of automated trading systems in case of the genetic algorithms' application is defined. Individual generated trading systems are described in the next segment separately. Their descriptions are followed by evaluation of outcomes of testing on historical data and of robustness' tests. Afterwards, the correlations between individual strategies are mentioned. The thesis concludes by efficiency evaluation of strategies' portfolio via backtest results and paper testing.