過去文獻對於不動產擔保品估值的研究，通常以銀行最終核定之價格做實證分析，本研究從銀行內部不動產擔保品價格變動情形，來探討影響銀行辦理授信程序時內部各單位決定不動產擔保品價值之因素，就不動產擔保品估值為依變數，實證分析申請人與不動產擔保品各項條件，研究結果顯示分行內部承辦人員估值及總行授審處估值之各項變數中以申請額度、區位、建物面積、屋齡、車位之有無等五項變數對估值具顯著影響。總行鑑價科則在區位、建物面積、屋齡、車位之有無等四項變數呈現顯著，影響總行授審處估值與鑑價科估值差額之因素則以是否為年齡、六個月平均存款餘額及申請額度等變數呈現顯著。分析結果顯示，分行承接業務時，考量擔保品條件與申貸金額。鑑價科則可能因此受到分行內部承辦人員估值的錨點影響，產生干擾效果。而授審處調整擔保品估值金額時，考量還款能力時，可能更重視的是借款戶於本行的往來存款實績。 / Previous studies on the appraised values of real estate collaterals are mostly empirical analyses on the final value approved by the creditor bank. The study, directing its attention to the changes in the appraised value of real estate collateral within a bank, examined the factor affecting the value of real estate collateral appraised by the different units of a bank. With the appraised value set as the dependent variable, the study conducted an empirical analysis on the loan applicants and the various features of the pledged collaterals. According to the study results, loan amount, location of the pledged collateral, floor area, age of the building, and provision of parking space emerged to be variables reaching statistical significance in the appraisal at both a local branch and the head office. Location, floor area, age, and parking space remained the statistically significant variable for the head office. Age of the applicant, average deposit account balance for the past six months, and loan amount appeared to be the statistically significant variable influencing the discrepancy in the values appraised by the local branch and the head office. As indicated by the analysis results, the local branch tended to place greater emphasis on the features of the pledged collateral and the loan amount; the appraisal office at the local branch might therefore be interfered by the value assessed by the responsible appraiser due to the anchoring effect. On the other hand, in adjusting the value appraised by the local branch, the head office would pay considerable attention to the applicant’s overall performance as a bank client in addition to repayment capacity.

金融機構為了滿足新版巴塞爾協定必須每年對不動產抵押擔保品進行重新鑑價的規定，採用房價指數來進行資產重新估計。然而，觀察現今發佈的國泰與信義房價指數，發現兩指數走勢及變動幅度上，皆存在相當大的分歧。 因此，本研究採用西元2005年至2007年間台北市十二行政區房屋之實際成交價格為研究範圍，建立特徵價格模型，並結合市場比較法中期日修正概念，利用房價指數進行調整，再依Hit Rate 及MAPE準則評估整體表現。為了避免樣本誤差對於實證結果的干擾，透過隨機抽樣三十次進行重複實驗，測試模型穩定性及估計精確度，最後，採用兩成對樣本T檢定，檢定房價指數是否有助於不動產標的重新估計，並分析兩房價指數何者較能確切的反應當前市價。 實證結果發現:(1)使用房價指數調整之估值正負誤差在10%及20%以內的命中率以及MAPE皆有顯著改善，這說明現今發佈之房價指數具備反映市場實際價值的能力，仍有繼續編制及發佈的必要。(2)經由比較並分析兩房價指數結果可知，以國泰房價指數調整之估值在10%及20%以內的命中率，以及MAPE指標上，皆通過顯著性檢定。而使用信義房價指數調整之估值表現僅在10%及20%以內的命中率通過成對T檢定，故可知國泰房價指數較能充分地扮演著揭露不動產市場訊息的角色。

國內土地估價技術，面臨兩項問題：一是對同一估價標的物土地，在同一個時間，由兩個以上的估價人員估價，所得到的估價結果常出現頗大的差距。另一是如何判斷某一項影響地價重要因素對地價的影響程度？國內相關文獻，雖嘗試使用複迴歸分析中的一般迴歸及逐步迴歸進行分析，期能有助於解決這兩項問題，但是，研究結果，並不理想。在一般迴歸方面，所建立的土地特徵方程式，變數之間常出現嚴重的線性重合現象，部分自變數的係數估計值的。負符號與土地估價理論或先驅訊息不相符合，整個估價方程式在解釋上有所困難。在逐步迴歸方面，所建立的土地特徵方程式，固然改善了影響地價重要因素之間的線性重合問題，但是，相對的，亦將許多影響地價重要因素排除於土。地估價方程式之外。此外，價方程式中的截距項出現負值，亦難以合理解釋，凡此種種問題，均尚未提出解決的方法。本文之研究目的，在於探討如何解決國內估價所面臨之兩項問題，在理論方面，提出「土地特徵組合。概念，認為土地係透過「土地特徵組合」地價的形成發生作用，而非透過「土地特徵」直接封地價之形發生用。在實證方面，引用多變量分析中之因子分析及群落分析，先對影響地價重要因素進行因子分析，並以群落分析結果輔助判斷因子的適當個數，然後再以諸項因子與買賣實例地價進行一般迴歸及逐步迴歸，建立一次式土地估價方程式。此外，另測試建立相加相乘混合型態的非一次式土地估價方程式，以克服上述問題。最後, 對兩種估價方程式加以比較，說明研究發現並提出建議。 / There are two problems of land valuation technique in our country, one problem is that there always are different values i for valuating the price of land at the same time by different valuers, and the difference between these values is tool much to be explained. Another problem is that it is very difficult to identify or to calculate the algorism which demonstrate the degree of every characteristic of land affecting land price. Although, the study of this topic have motioned that the less multi-collinearity the explanatory variables included in the model , the better the model, they never research the fact how the land characteristics affect the land price when they choose the alternative hedonic price function forms. Sometimes they find the intercept of the model is negative, or the sign (positive or negative) of the coefficient of explanatory variables is contradicting to the theory, they also never suggest the remedial measures to the problems. The purpose of this paper is to study the land valuation model from the combination of land characteristics. Consequently, We can get some satisfactory results about resolving above problems.

估價是一門科學，也是一門藝術，除了專業的技術理論之外，還需仰賴估價人員本身的經驗以及能力，因此估價雖然是一種科學推論的過程，它仍然需要人類加以執行。由行為學的角度觀之，人類並非完全客觀理性，因此估價雖然依循科學推論的程序，但仍有可能因為人的執行問題，而影響到估值。在過去估價的相關研究多著重於技術方法上的改良，以期望提升估價人類的專業能力，然而估價所面臨的問題除了技術方法未臻成熟之外，另外為人所詬病者則在於缺乏獨立性，能夠經由人為操作而得到期望之估值。 因此本文擬藉由估價人員的觀點，從行為的角度來探討估價人員在執行業務時，所面臨之客戶影響，及其與估價人員/公司特性間的關聯性。 本文根據問卷調查結果發現，證實目前估價業中確實普遍存在預估制度，且有部份估價人員有估值配合之情形，但並無法證實估值配合是否為普遍存在的現象。預估制度雖未必會直接影響估值的產生，但實際上卻可能會使得估價人員在估價過程之中，接收到額外的客戶影響。至於國內客戶影響之潛在因素可分為業績因素、後果因素、資訊掌握能力、缺乏客觀資料，以及環境因素，與國外區分為提供服務者特性、客戶特性、外部環境特性，以及所提供服務之特性，在分類方式上有所差異，實證結果所呈現者，是在於估價人員面臨客戶影響時，其所認同之潛在因素於傾向上的差異。在影響方式上，客戶很容易利用其他估價人員未掌握的資訊，或是由不同的價格觀點對估值提出質疑。除此之外，最常使用的方式便是打電話給估價人員或上級主管，或是直接告知期望的價格。至於客戶影響力大小部份，整體而言對收入影響重大的客戶，其影響力較大，同時亦發現估價人員對於勘估標的實際成交價格，以及其他估價人員/公司對勘估標的之估算價格，依賴程度很高。此外熟客或是大客戶，尤其是對公司有一定熟悉程度時，由於客戶知道該對誰運用其影響力，所能夠發揮的影響力亦較大。

近年政府積極推動都市更新政策，藉以改善都市中老舊地區的窳陋環境，以及復甦都市再生機能。都市更新方法有協議合建、權利變換與自地自建等方式，其中大多數申請案件選擇以權利變換方式作為都市更新實施方式，主要原因係實施權利變換可獲得容積獎勵及稅賦減免等優惠。特別是權利變換制度主要在處理參與權利人的負擔與分配，其中引進不動產估價師評價機制以維持該制度公平、合理與客觀。 但隨著房地產市場景氣變動及都市更新個案之開發類型愈趨複雜，檢視實務上於都市更新權利變換間，各權利變換關係人常有對於評估價值認定上之爭議與衝突，特別在實施者與土地權利人間權益的分配問題，顯示現行制度對於權利變換估價的規範確有不足之處。本研究將針對權利變換估價的爭議與權益分配問題分為兩部份來探討，其一為實施者與地主之間分配分析；其二為地主與地主之間分配分析。透過對權利變換實際案例的分析以釐清權益分配上的課題與缺失。 研究結果顯示：(1)協議合建與權利變換對分配之差異、權利變換與事後清算機制之分析、更新後分配比合理性判斷、一般不動產估價與權利變換估價之差異以及更新前後估價方法影響權益分配等相關議題皆存在權利變換估價問題與權益分配之相互影響。(2)而透過模擬比較協議合建與權利變換後結果所示，以協議合建方式實施都市更新對土地所有權人較有利，而以權利變換方式實施都市更新則對實施者較有利。(3) 權利變換估價因需考慮參與更新權利人相對公平關係，而一般不動產估價只需針對評估特定標的物之絕對值；而不管權利變換估價或一般不動產估價均預估未來，造成土地所有權人對估價結果認定產生差異，特別是一樓權利價值問題最大。 基於本研究結果，本文提出相關建議為(1) 為避免實施者影響估價師的作業，建議權利變換委託估價制度應改由估價師公會、土地所有權人與實施者各自委託一家估價師進行權利變換估價，藉以消除領先估價與配合估價的情形。(2) 建立非營利專業組織(NPO)參與調整都市更新機制是有其必要性，透過建立協商之法定程序中，以及估價師角色進場，以提供合理諮商建議資料。(3) 建立房地產買賣成交案例之登錄及提供查詢制度供估價師合法收集採用。

如何客觀有系統的估計公告土地現值一直是土地估價研究領域的熱 門話題，目前公告土地現值的查估，多數以區段地價作為宗地地價，受限 人為主觀與人力不足的缺點，查估的結果並不一定能有效反應各區段間地 價差異。由於以往房地產實證研究的領域中，特徵方程式一直是受到廣泛 運用的工具，然多數著重於各別宗地價格進行模型設計，較少以地價區段 範圍建立估價模型。本研究以三峽鎮住宅區民國89 至98 年區段地價進行 實證分析。變數的選取主要是配合「地價調查估計規則」所規範影響普通 住宅用地區域因素基準，並將全部變項納入複迴歸模型中，先測試綜合影 響程度，再將未符合預期及篩選合理顯著變項重新建立區段地價估價模 型。實證顯示接近公車站牌之程度、區段內道路規劃及開闢建程度、景觀 有無、保排水良否、地勢是否高低起伏、至國中小距離、至市場超市距離、 至三峽老街距離、停車是否便利、至墓地殯儀館火葬場距離及是否具發展 潛力等11 項變數達顯著水準，於20%內之Hit Rate 達91.18%，MAPE 亦僅 7.9%，均能符合預期表現。本文透過區段地價估價模型之建立，提供電腦 輔助區段地價估價可行方案，藉以增進公告土地現值評估客觀及科學化程 度。 / How to estimate the announced current land value objectively and systematically is always a hot issue in land valuation research field. And, since the announced current land value is the foundation for levying the land value increment tax and compensation when land expropriation, the risk of unfairness might happen if the announced current land value is not objective and systematical. Under the announced current land value system, most parcel land values are produced using the district land value. Although decades of valuation experience by assessors, the district land value would not necessarily reflect fundamental value effectively. Taking into consideration of the difference between the degree the zoning affect the land value and the heterogeneity characteristic of land, this paper construct district land value model on different zoning. The empirical study region is the residential zoning area in the Sanshia Township, for its landscape with new and old mixed buildings, featuring metropolitan development characteristic, and stable sales transaction volume. The empirical time period is from 2000 to 2009. The district land value estimated from sales, collected from the Shulin Land Office, is the dependent variable. The selection of the independent variables is in line with the region factors of common residential area regulated by “The Regulations on the Land Value Investigation and Estimation” after combining similar attributes for easing the bias possibility from co linearity. The empirical result shows the significant variables are the ratio of constructed road area to total area within the land value district, parking convenience, development potentiality and the distance from bus station, junior, elementary schools, market, service facilities, graveyard, etc. The model fit is good with adj-R2. This paper hopes to increase the automation degree of the announced current land value and make the announced current land value objectively and systematically by establishment of the district land value model.

市場比較法估價過程需要經比較、分析及調整三階段，而估價師於個別估價應用中因缺乏標準化依據，造成估價過程常被質疑過於主觀且偏重經驗法則，導致估價結果產生因人而異現象。基於此本研究乃建立大量估價模型，運用估價師進行市場比較法行為邏輯，在選取比較案例階段採用明科斯基距離概念，並結合特徵價格理論，建立大量樣本的客觀標準化估價模型。藉由此模型分析，估價師不需要主觀預測，可改善過去估價結果不一致情形，並達到大量估價目的。 透過隨機抽樣的重覆實驗，實證結果發現，以模型的平均百分比預測誤差與命中率比較，整體而言未劃分次市場估價模型皆較劃分次市場準確，且其穩定度亦較高，而劃分次市場較不準確的原因，在於舊市區的表現不穩定，與市郊區的估值表現較差所致。經本研究結果，不論劃分次市場與否，標準化大量估價模型大致上均達到研究預設水準，然劃分次市場模型雖有時較準確但未優於未分區模型甚多，顯示適當劃分次市場可提高準確度，但資料太少時，劃分次市場可能產生統計偏誤問題。 / The process of the market comparative approach includes three stages：comparing ,analyzing and adjusting. Real estate appraisers lack the standardized basis in the individual appraisal application, so they are often challenged by subjectivity and stressing experience, which leads to the phenomenon that appraisal results are always different from person to person. Based on this, our research establishes the automated valuation methods. By applying the appraisers’ behavior in market comparative approach, we use minkowski metric in selecting comparative subject, and associate with hedonic price theory to establish objective standardized real estate appraisal model. By using this model, the appraisers can avoid subjective forecasting, reduce inconsistency, and therefore achieve the goal of mass appraisal. Through the repetition experiment of random sampling, we compare MAPE and Hit-rate between models. The result shows that non-delimited markets are more accurate and stable than delimited markets. The reason for this is the instability caused by older district of the city and bad performance in the suburban area. After these findings, no matter delimited market or not, the standardized mass appraisal model achieved the research standard we had set in advance. Sometimes the model of delimited market is more accurate, though not by a significant amount, it shows that higher accuracy can be expected through adequate market segmentation, but will lead to bias when lack of datum.

不動產估價一般需採比較法、收益法及成本法等三種方法查估。不動產估價最終估值決定須進行協調(reconciliation)，協調的目的係為完成關聯(correlation)之步驟，就各種方法資料之質量及優缺點進行分析。為使不動產估價對於比較法三件買賣實例，及三種方法估值採賦予權重之決定方式提供量化解釋，本文分別建立比較法內部及三種方法外部權重模型。內部權重部分，買賣實例（市場）比較法一般需蒐集數個比較標的，經調整後之試算價格決定比較價格。國外以數學計算式計算實例權重雖已相當普遍，但目前尚無應用特徵效用模式，解讀實例權重形成與比較標的內部條件之關聯。本文以2007年及2008年地價基準地6,435筆買賣實例建構特徵權重模型，發現比較法買賣實例權重受價格型態、交易日期接近性、是否屬近鄰地區、實例差異百分率絕對值加總、實例比較項目修正數、其他兩個實例相對值等自變數影響顯著。 欲探討成本法估值是否與成交價存在差異，以作為外部權重設定之基礎，本文以北部地區986筆交易案例，由估價人員逐筆以成本法估計成本價格，俾與成交價格比較。發現成本價格有高估之系統性偏誤現象，分量迴歸(quantile regression)分析實證認為成本法並未因屋齡較新之建物有較高精度。另發現房地交易價格愈高、建物單價愈高、總樓層數愈高、移轉樓層愈低、建物面積愈小、建築工期愈長及利潤率愈小者；估值差異愈小。 外部權重分為三部分，首先將估價過程中之諸項因子，以分析階層程序法(AHP)專家問卷，彙整各種方法權重因子；其次，基於最適加權平均模式在於使三種方法估值總誤差最小之觀點，經由數學計算方程式建構2,150筆基準地三種方法標準差及相關係數模型以計算權重。第三、為了瞭解比較估值、收益估值與土地開發分析估值之關聯，本文將2,150筆三種估價方式權重建立聯立模型，以三階段最小平方法(3SLS)進行估計。實證模型系統加權解釋力甚高，且三種方式權重之自變數多符合預期並顯著，顯見三種方式之關聯性。 最後，不動產估價仍需考慮一般因素，如金融海嘯對全球金融及房地產市場，其影響力無遠弗屆，最終估值之決定即需考慮市場景氣對最終估值之影響。為探討對於(不)景氣時是否(低)高估？影響(低)高估與否之影響因素為何？本文以2002年至2004年國內某金融機構對房屋貸款20,532件之估值，以二項式邏輯特(Binary Logit)模型分析。實證結果發現於不景氣時期抵押貸款低估機率提高，景氣時期則無高估現象。綜上，本文以權重模式、估值差異及市場景氣影響探討不動產估價最終估值之形成，於權重模型建構及預測上，非如以往文獻僅對估值預測，而係就權重預測。於加權平均應用上，外生變數之迴歸係數可作為權重設定之參考。本文直接探討最終估值形成之權重核心，冀使估價之客觀性及科學化程度提高。 / Real estate appraisal comprises the sales comparison, income, and cost approaches to value in general. The purpose of reconciliation is to complete the procedure of correlation and analyze the qualitative and quantitative strengths and weaknesses of different approach data. In order to assist quantifiable explanation when weighted average for three comparables in the Sales comparison approach and indicated values from three approaches are applied, this paper constructs internal and external weight models respectively. For internal weight model, this paper examines the correlation between weight and internal attributes of 6,345 sales comparables from land value benchmark in 2007 and 2008 adopting the hedonic price model. The outcome shows the price type, the proximity of transaction date, inside the neighborhood area or not, total gross adjustment as %, numbers of adjustments and the attributes of other two comparables considered in one appraisal are significant on the weight of comparables. To explore whether the cost approach causes bias or not, and make it reference for establishment of external weight model, this paper compares the cost value, appraised by valuers applying the cost approach individually, from a sample of 986 transactions of properties sold in 2007 and 2008 in northern Taiwan, to sale price and finds the cost value is higher than sale price on average. It proves that the reliability of the cost approach is comparatively questionable due to its systematic bias of overestimation. With quantile regression, the outcome shows that the precision of cost value won’t increase for newer buildings. In addition, this paper finds the more the total property sales amount, the higher the unit construction fee, the higher building, the lower story, the smaller area, the longer construction years of properties, and the smaller profit rate; the smaller the bias. There are three parts for external weights. First, AHP expert questionare is adopted to combine weight factor from each approach. Secondly, based on the logic that the best way to assign weights on three appraisal approaches is to get the minimum total error, this paper calculates the standard error and correlation indicators from three approaches using 2,150 land value benchmarks. Thirdly, in order to realize the weights correlation among the sales comparison value, income capitalization value and land development analysis value, this paper builds a model based on the three-stage least squares method simultaneous equation (3SLS). The empirical result shows system weighted R2 is high and most attributes on the weights of three indication of value are significant and are consistent with expected sign, which means the model fit is good and how the weights of three methods correlate. Finally, general factor also needs to be considered in real estate appraisal. For instance, financial tsunami exerts powerful influence on financial and real estate market globally, which makes it necessary to consider real estate cylce influence when seeking the final value. In order to discuss whether the appraisal value of mortgage is smaller (greater) or not when the market is bearish (bullish) and the corresponding factors, this paper collects 20,532 mortgage appraisal value from one bank from 2002 to 2004. With Binary Logit model, this paper finds the probability of lower appraisal is greater in bear market. The outcome confirms two hypotheses of this paper. However, overestimation is not confirmed in bull market. To sum up, this thesis researches the formation of final value of real estate appraisal by discussing weight model, appraisal bias and influence of real estate cycle. For weight model construction and forecasting, this dissertation forecasts weight directly, instead of value like most literature focus. The regression coefficients estimated from factors during the procedure of each approach could serve for reference if weighted average is applied reconciling the value conclusion by valuers. By delving into the core issue of value formation, it hopes to elevate the degree the objectivity and science of real estate appraisal.

不動產估價為一連串的估值決定行為下，所得之結果。不動產估價過程並非絕對的理論，而存在非規範性的自我主觀，此種特質正是行為研究方法可著力之處。 本文運用行為研究方法，以基準地查估為平台，在相同的估價制度和規範，比較基礎一致的情形下，探討公部門的地價人員與私部門的不動產估價師之估值決定行為，試圖探究兩者行為決策模式是否有所不同。並進一步分析，若估值決定行為存有差異，該差異是否影響估值準確程度。 研究採實驗方式進行，結果顯示，不動產估價師與地價人員於估價過程中，所為估值決定有所不同。透過本實驗觀察，估價師較符合本研究設定之行為模式，且於個案估價準確程度方面，有其專業的展現。本文得到估值決定行為，存在影響估值準確程度的可能，故建議後續研究焦點可置於估價過程之行為探討，而非單就估價結果論之。 關鍵字：不動產估價、行為研究、估值決定 / The real estate is appraised for a succession of behaviors of valuation. Real estate appraisal is really not an absolute theory, and exists non-regulatory subjective judgment. This is what we can exactly put forth effort on behavioral property research. This paper uses the behavioral property research, under the situation that the comparative foundation is unanimous, and investigates valuation behavior of appraisers and assessors in the same appraisal system and norm. We further analyze the difference of the valuation behavior whether it would influence the accurate degree of valuation. The result shows the valuation behavior of appraisers and assessors is different. In addition, appraisers relatively accord with the hypothesis of the research, especially they represent the accuracy of the case through the experiment of behavioral property research. The text finds out the difference of the valuation behavior might affect the accuracy of valuation. Therefore, follow-up study could focus on the valuation behavior, instead of the appraisal result.

預售屋價格長久受到台灣產業界與學術界密切關注，然而預售屋價格資訊卻相對成屋缺乏，本研究希望釐清預售屋的特性並建立預售屋大量估價模型，提供預售屋價格資訊。預售屋具期貨交易性質，其價格形成受周遭成屋價格影響，其基差(預售屋與成屋價格差)關係顯得格外重要；另一方面，預售屋為完工前銷售之產品，有品質不易掌握之特性，消費者傾向透過商譽來評斷產品優劣，商譽因而相對凸顯，加上預售屋具有以個案方式為中心之定價模式，相對成屋其個案特徵顯得更加強烈，基差與建商商譽成為預售屋估價上必要考量的兩個重心。 本文以特徵價格方式納入基差與商譽因素進行實證分析與建立模型，研究期間為台北市2012年第3季至2015年第4季，在資料處理上透過座標整合內政部實價登錄資料以及國泰建設市調資料，解決實價登錄資料中缺乏個案屬性的去識別化問題，將預售屋「個案」特徵納入「個戶」估計中，突破過往預售屋研究限縮於個案的限制。實證結果顯示，台北市預售屋單價平均比周圍成屋多出35.5%的水準、而屬於上市上櫃建商的預售產品則相較非上市櫃產品平均高出5.7%的價格；模型估計表現上，本研究實證模型解釋力達到65.1%，模型之絕對平均誤差為10.56%、±10%及±20%的命中率分別為57.86%、88.25%，達到大量估價模型要求水準，值得參考使用。