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本文在條件獨立假設下，考慮資產間違約相互傳染的效果，並建構結果傳染因子效果之單因子連繫結構，利用Hull and White (2004)所提出的機率勺斗法則(probability bucketing method)建構合成型擔保債權憑證債權群組的損失分配，進而求得各分券之價差，並求算各分券之風險特徵以及避險參數，做為避險策略之參考。研究發現，加入傳染效果後，使得各分券的價差均明顯提高，且隨著傳染效果增強，分券信用價差也會隨之增加。而我們在計算分券的風險特徵時發現，加入傳染效果後，會使得資產連帶受其他資產違約而產生間接違約損失的情形增加，而權益分券率先承擔資產組合之違約損失，在契約初期的風險較高，且發生違約的公司多為評等較低的公司，因此多屬於直接違約，因此傳染效果對權益分券風險影響較小，因此次償分券隨著時間的經過風險逐漸上升，且隨著傳染效果增強，風險也會隨之增加。而由於先償分券承擔損失的最後順位，因此其風險主要來自契約後期，當加入傳染效果後會擴大間接違約的風險，使得後期發生損失不確定性的情況大增，因此先償分券會因傳染效果而擴大其風險。最後我們根據分券價值會因標的信用違約交換價差變動而產生市場風險，並將傳染效果考慮進來，求算擔保債權憑證之分券避險參數，並進行避險分析。

現今是資訊發達且多變的環境，企業要生存必須因應環境的變化。目前在機械業界中最熱門的金屬射出成形(Metal injection mold) 技術，使得零組件成形與加工技術有革命性的改變。現今全球具規模的金屬射出成形產業的供應商將近30年的歷史，過去五年都維持在約15%以上成長，個案P公司是由粉末冶金產業開始，其主力產品是汽車零件，在2008年下半年金融風暴的襲擊，汽車產業衰退，該公司在此情況，精進金屬射出成形的技術，並研發節省能源設計的新材料，提供給汽車產業和其他市場的使用；另一個案T公司在金屬射出成形產業有十多年，主要是製造形狀複雜、高精密度的機械零件。本研究希望藉由產業環境分析與個案分析，找尋金屬射出成形產業的利基點，與企業在發展和成長過程，探討出未來經營策略或可行的方案。 本研究的理論基礎主要是參考Michael Porter的產業分析(1980)對於MIM產業的總體環境和產業分析，瞭解其發展趨勢；接著引用Porter的五力分析(1985)，分析個案企業面臨外在產業的環境，與其競爭優勢；最後採用Weihrich,Heinz (1982)提出SWOT矩陣策略配對，將個案公司內部的優勢、劣勢與外部的機會及威脅以矩陣結構的方式分析，利用最大之優勢和機會、及最小之劣勢與威脅，以界定出其目前所處的情況，進而研擬出個案公司適當的因應對策。 經過產業分析和個案分析後，本研究得到以下結論:(一)、影響粉末冶金、金屬射出成形產業的因素為全球經濟環境、石油價格和科技技術。(二)、粉末冶金產業的生命週期已進入成長期，金屬射出成形正邁入成長期。(三)、形狀複雜高精密度的小型機械零件，以傳統加工方式不易生產，用MIM的技術可以量產出這些複雜的形狀，減少加工的步驟，為其利基點。(四)、目前以MIM技術生產持續降低成本，縮短交期、增加其競爭優勢。(五)、產品廣泛應用在各種需要金屬零件的產業界，如個案P公司生產汽車齒輪的數量，供應全球汽車產業需求量超過三分之ㄧ，而個案T公司生產小而複雜的零部件提供給手工具、3C產品和資訊等產業，都有獲利的空間。 對於金屬射出成型產業的建議為 (一)、在各國節約能源和環保愛地球，研發技術人員需開發輕金屬零件，以因應市場需求。(二)、因歐美市場汽車需求量降低，而大陸市場汽車需求量大，因此大陸正積極的發展金屬粉末射出成形產業，並尋求台灣零件的供給，是我們拓展市場的機會。(三)、對於3C和資訊產業的產品，因其產品生命週期短，需要有專案的技術人員以最短的開發和交樣時間，以ERP管理，降低庫存，並與客戶一起開發，節省資源，降低風險。 關鍵字: 金屬射出成型(MIM)，SWOT矩陣策略。 / In the fast growing IT world of today, Metal Injection Molding (MIM) technology transform the traditional manufacturing method of the metallic parts to a revolutionary fabrication process in the machinery industries. MIM actually has been developed for more than 30 years, and in the latest 5 years, the annual growth rate is about 10 to 15%. End products are commonly component items used in various industries and applications. Company P has been using powder metallurgical technology to produce auto parts. Although its business was affected by the slowdown of auto industries due to the financial storm in the second half of 2008, its advancement in the MIM technology, including the development of the energy saving material, had helped the company to survive in the downturn of auto industries. Another Company T in the case study has used the MIM technology to provide the diversified geometrically complex metal parts for more than 10 years. This study was using the tools of analysis and case studies to find the niche of metal injection molding industry for the enterprise to explore the appropriate managing strategies during they were developing and growing process of the business. The theoretical background of this study is referring to the industry analysis and 「Five Force analysis」 made by Professor Michael Porter of Harvard University in 1980 and 1985. It gives an overview and the overall environmental and competitive analysis and used for studying the development trend of the MIM industry. Using the SWOT matrix for strategy matching proposed by Weihrich in 1982, the company’s internal strengths, weaknesses and external opportunities and threats, could be analyzed and expressed in an explicit form. Then, maximize the strengths and opportunities and minimize the weaknesses and threats to define the present situation, and then develop the best applicable strategies for the company. Through industry analysis and case studies, this study concludes the followings: (1) Powder metallurgy and metal injection molding industry are affected by the global economic environment, oil prices and the technological advancement. (2) The life cycle of powder metallurgy industry is at its growth period, but the metal injection molding is at the end of embryonic period and moving to growth period. (3) Since it’s not easy to use the traditional fabrication process to make the complicated or asymmetric shaped metallic parts, the metal injection molding technology has the advantages of making the complicated parts with less fabrication steps. (4) Powder metallurgy and metal injection molding could continuously reduce costs and shorten the delivery time to increase their competitiveness. (5) The products could be widely used in various kinds of industry where the metallic parts are needed. Company P is producing one-third of the gears used in the world-wide auto industries and Company T is making the small and complex parts for the hand tools, 3C and IT industries with profits. Finally, the suggestions for metal injection molding industry are listed as follows: (1) Under the regulations of the environment protection, we should develop the energy conserving and carbon-reducing materials to meet the requirements. (2) China is developing the metal injection molding technology aggressively to meet the demand of its automobile market, which provides a great business opportunity of the auto parts supplier of Taiwan, (3) Since the life cycle of 3C and IT products is very short, the engineering team should design and fabricate the products in a very short time to the market. Also, it is necessary to use ERP management to reduce inventory and co-work with customers to develop products, conserve resources and reduce the risk.

CDO經由分券的過程將資產的特有風險與系統性風險予以劃分，主要的目的是讓投資者針對風險承擔的能力購買不同的分券。在信用指數合成型CDO方面，市場實務採用簡化的LPGC(Large Pool Gaussian Copula Model)評價，面對降等與特別事件造成的個別資產違約卻無法有效的評估。本文在LPGC上加入信用評等分組與信用移轉矩陣，以Factor Copula方法建立聯合違約關係，配合高斯積分的數值方法計算出各分券的價格，對於信用評等下降的情況與LPGC做比較，結果顯示分組能夠有效的阻隔資產的特有風險，不會讓其他的資產也受到此資產降等的嚴重影響，因此適當的分組夠使模型對於系統與非系統風險有較佳的反應能力。

3D列印的普及讓民眾可利用簡易的建模軟體建立3D模型，但是如何建立可動模型對一般使用者而言卻是一道難題，因為必須考驗建模者對於模型設計與結構的熟悉程度，以及受到目前3D印表機的可印程度等因素限制。目前市面上的3D列印成型技術，以FDM最為普遍，優點是便宜、無毒等，而缺點則為精細度低及需印出支撐材，與其他3D列印技術相比限制較多，且失敗率相對較高。本論文的目標主要是將3D靜態(不可動)的肢體動物模型，以FDM印表機為輸出目標，產生出一體化關節可動模型。根據使用者輸入的模型與骨架，本系統會自動找出關節位置，利用關節點與模型頂點的距離計算各部位關節的半徑大小，並利用外積與旋轉矩陣將可動關節與肢體方向對齊，並調整模型至可動關節可嵌入的大小。使用者可藉由本系統所提供的直覺式操作介面，進行參數化調整，以印出不需組裝之可動模型，我們邀請了10位受試者，透過系統操作教學及任務，讓受試者學習如何使用此系統，並透過問卷的方式探討系統的優缺點。問卷的評分方式是採5分量表，從實驗結果顯示，系統整體有用性平均分數為4.5分，表示本系統能有效的幫助使用者建立可動關節模型；而易用性的平均分數是3.9分，代表本研究在介面設計上雖非重點，但仍有改進的空間；易學性方面的平均分數為4.5 分，表示本系統的操作對使用者是容易學習的。整體而言，實驗結果顯示，本研究所建立的可動關節模型系統已達到輔助使用者建立可動模型的目標，並證實了本研究的發展價值。 / The popularity of 3D printing has allowed people to design 3D models through common 3D modeling software. However, it is still difficult for a regular user to build a model with movable joints because most users are not familiar with mechanical design and it is a great challenge to design such a model that is printable with current 3D printing technology. FDM is the most popular type with the advantages of being cheap. However, its disadvantage is low precision, which make its failure rate higher than others. In this thesis, we aim to design a system that can take a static articulated model and convert it into a non-assemble model with movable joints that is printable on a FDM 3D printer. Our system can automatically find the positions of the joints according to the input mesh and skeleton and compute the radius of the maximal enclosing circle for each joint model. After aligning the joint model with the limb, the system can automatically adjust the size of the whole model such that the joint model can be embedded in the body model. A user can also tune system parameters through an intuitive interface to determine the orientation and limits of each joint. In order to evaluate our system, we invited ten persons to test user our system by completing assigned tasks and filling a usability survey. The survey is a questionnaire consisting of typical five-point Likert-scale items. The survey reveals that the usefulness of our system is 4.5, which means that our system can effectively help the users construct movable joint models. The score of ease-of-use is 3.9, which means that our user interface still have room for improvement although it is the current focus of our system. The score of ease-of-learning is 4.5, which means that our system is easy for the users to learn. In short, from the experimental results, we believe that our system has achieved the goal of providing a 3D modeling system that can assist users in building non-assemble moveable joint models that are printable on FDM 3D printers.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(工学) / 乙第12960号 / 論工博第4127号 / 新制||工||1635(附属図書館) / 32359 / (主査)教授 前 一廣, 教授 田門 肇, 教授 松坂 修二 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

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本文在大樣本同質性(LHP)假設下，架構出Variance-Gamma因子聯繫結構模型。建立債權群組損失分配時，由於Variance-Gamma分配與常態分配相同皆具有累加性，因此作為因子結構模型會比起Double-t因子聯繫結構模型具較佳解析性。本文進一步比較Variance-Gamma因子聯繫結構模型與高斯因子聯繫結構模型以及Double-t因子聯繫結構模型。iTraxx指數分券實證結果顯示，Variance-Gamma因子聯繫結構模型最為精確，能有效刻劃高斯因子聯繫結構模型所缺少之尾端損失機率機率分配，以及改正Double-t因子聯繫結構模型過份高估尾端損失之缺點。此外利用調整Variance-Gamma分配之偏態及峰態係數，可以求出更精準的評價結果。最後本文介紹iTraxx分券的交易策略，並且針對不同風險予以避險，研究結果顯示，規避標的債權群組之信用價差風險後，往往無法規避違約相關性變化的風險，投資人在進行策略交易時應更審慎評估。

根據ISDA研究，合成型證券化商品之發行量已突破傳統型證券化商品，顯見合成型證券化商品對於金融機構經營策略之運用、投資市場的多元性以及風險管理工具的發展，均占一席之地。我國由「金融資產證券化條例」授權主管機關擴充「外國證券化債券」得為證券化資產種類中，即包含外國「合成型擔保債權憑證」；該產品特徵在於證券發行機構無須實質持有資產，投資人係透過發行機構承作信用衍生性商品以承擔標的資產之風險，並以該信用衍生性商品之「風險貼水」作為證券收益來源。 「合成型擔保債權憑證」架構特質，異於國內金融業者依據「金融資產證券化條例」之明文規範，得發行之受益證券或資產基礎證券。然「金融資產證券化條例」對於得證券化資產，授權主管機關得視國際潮流而另行擴充的立法方式，目的在調整立法彈性以適應國際趨勢，並提高競爭力；但目前條例尚未允許業者發行合成型證券化商品的情勢下，「外國證券化債券」得為資產池資產，反而更彰顯「金融資產證券化條例」未跟隨國際證券化市場之發展而調整的事實。 本論文參考美國SEC發佈之Regulation AB之公開原則為主軸，針對發行人、創始機構、發起人、存託人等參與者的責任，檢討國內條例就證券化市場所規範之公開原則、民事責任的賠償主體是否完善。接著探討合成型證券化商品的發行，對於「金融資產證券化條例」的基本架構應有的修正。期望可健全並多元證券化市場，同時亦促進金融機構風險管理能力。