第一章 緒論。一、研究動機及其目的。二、研究方法及其限制。本章主要說明問 題的緣起及其處理的構想與範圍的限制。 第二章 抽自相鄰兩期母體的估計。第一節保留部分前期樣本的估計與重新抽樣之 估計的比較。說明母體資料雖隨時間的推移而變動，可是一般而言其前後 資料之間仍保有顯著的相關因此在做本期母數的估計時，採用保留部分前 期樣本的方法，可以提高估計的精度，故比重新抽樣之估計為佳。第二節 本期平均數的最佳線型不偏估計。說明採用保留部分前期樣本的方法，配 合最小變異不偏估計的充要條件導出本期平均數的最佳線型不偏估計。第 三節平均數之變動量的估計。以最小不偏變異的觀點，導出其估計式。其 目的在探求如果母體受到某種外力的影響，其平均數的穩定性將如何？第 四節平均數與其變動量的聯合估計。說明當前期的估計值已經發布，無法 用本期的樣本值加以修正時，可以用聯合估計的方法，使得平均數變動量 的估計值等於平均數估計值的變動量。 第三章 連續ｋ期之母體的估計。第一節本期平均數的最小變異不偏估計，是將前 章的結果加以推廣，做一般性的考慮，分每期樣本數相等與不相等來討論 。第二節每期最適樣本數的決定。是在每期估計的精度維持相同的水準下 ，希望抽樣調查的費用會最小的原則下求出每期的最適樣本數。 第四章 結論。

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(文学) / 甲第20836号 / 文博第766号 / 新制||文||658(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院文学研究科行動文化学専攻 / (主査)教授 藤田 和生, 教授 板倉 昭二, 准教授 黒島 妃香, 教授 櫻井 芳雄 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Letters / Kyoto University / DGAM

在各式各樣的銷售技巧中，誇張廠商建議價格是一種常見的手法，廠商漫天喊價誇大原始售價，無非是希望能讓消費覺得實際售價低廉且商品值得購買。但在廠商使用這樣的策略時，有些人會察覺到廠商操弄的意圖進而對廠商、商品產生負面的感覺。本研究認為消費者的認知需求程度是參考價格產生效果的重要調節變項，因此，本研究發展兩階段的實驗來探討消費者認知需求高低對其處理價格資訊的影響。研究方式與結果簡述如下： 在第一個階段中研究的是誇張的行銷訊息（誇張的廠商售價）對於認知需求程度不同的消費者的效果差異，以及廠商售價對於消費者的商品態度與購買意願的影響。研究結果發現，認知需求低者較易被廠商宣稱的誇張價格影響其對商品的推估價格，進而對商品產生較佳的態度與購買意願。 在第二個階段中，本研究設計讓已經受到廠商訂價影響的消費者接觸實際售價，探討消費者的認知需求程度對於其操弄意圖推論程度的影響及消費者操弄意圖推論程度對於其最終購買意願與商品態度產生的效果。結果發現，認知需求高的消費者其操弄意圖推論程度亦高，且消費者的操弄意圖推論程度愈高；對於消費者商品態度與購買意願負面的影響也愈大。 / One main concern regarding the use of reference prices in advertisements relates to the possibility of perceived deception due to consumers' reaction towards exaggerated or implausible price claims. This paper examines the moderating roles of an individual level variable-need for cognition (NFC), in influencing consumers’ evaluation of the reference prices in a two-stage experiment. The results support the hypothesized effects of need for cognition and demonstrate that, in the first stage, consumers with a high need for cognition assimilate a smaller portion of the external reference points (ERPs) into their existing internal reference point (IRPs). In addition, for consumers with a low need for cognition, the increasing level of reference price results in positive effects on value perception, brand attitudes and purchase intention. In the second stage, I introduced inferences of manipulative intent (IMI) as a dependant variable. The results suggest that for consumers with a high need for cognition, the greater the discrepancy between their estimated price and real price, the higher level of perceived manipulative intent of advertisers. This leads to negative attitudes toward the advertiser and results in negative effects on brand attitudes and purchase intention. Implications for research and practitioners are discussed.

本文係以內容分析法，分析國內台視、中視、華視三家電視台之電視新聞，主播及文 字記者，對於新聞的報導形態係以事實陳述、推論，或判斷何類語句為主，藉此提供 作為改進國內電視新聞從業人員改進報導方式之參考。 為明確突顯新聞議題對於新聞報導方式是否具相關性，本文選擇七十五年底中央公職 人員選舉期間的三台晚間新聞作為樣本。 研究結果發現我國電視新聞報導方式，以事實陳述占多數，判斷語句次之，推論語句 較少。且報導方式與新聞議題性質之間有顯著相關。

本文主要對超母體模型應用在有限母體之抽樣理論作探討。本文一冊, 分六章約四萬 字。摘要如下: 第一章為緒論。 第二章分五節, 對有限之可識別母體建立基本的模型。 第三章分五節, 先介紹超母體之概念, 及常用的超母體模型, 接著分別在轉換模型及 可交換轉換模型下, 研究其最適之不偏設計策略。 第四章分五節, 研究超母體模型下之預測理論, 含無輔助變數時之預測, 及迴歸模型 下之預測。 第五章為實例分析。 第六章為結論。

假設一序列的隨機變數其機率分配由某一點開始改變, 我們對於此點做一些推論。我 們特別以指數分配(exponeutial distribution)之平均值改變為特例, 描述我們之推 論。我們導出了變點之最大似真估計(maximum likelihood estimate )之逼近分配( Asymptotic distribution)及變點之最大似真比值統計量(likelihood ratio stati- stic)之逼近分配。這些逼近分配和一些限定樣本(Finite sample)之經驗分配(Ompi- ical distribution )相比較。

本研究的目的是探討學生由上下文猜測字義的能力及其與字彙學習、閱讀能力之相關關係。 研究的對象是台中市育英國中68位二年級的學生。研究的主要工具是兩份評估學生字彙及閱讀能力的全民英檢字彙及閱讀測驗，調查學生關於字彙推論技巧的問卷及訪談各一份。研究過程分為三個步驟：(1)前測— 字彙、閱讀能力測驗及問卷，(2)教學實驗— 字彙推論教學，及(3)後測— 字彙、閱讀能力測驗，問卷，及(4)個別訪談，以獲得更詳盡的資料來支持研究結果的分析。 研究結果發現： （1） 學生的字彙能力及閱讀理解能力具有顯著相關。學生的字彙能力越強，越能幫助他們對文章意義的理解，進而相對地提高他們的閱讀理解能力。 （2） 教授字彙推論技巧有助於學生的字彙學習及閱讀理解。接受字彙推論技巧教學的實驗組學生於後測階段，在字彙能力及閱讀理解測驗的表現均明顯優於未接受字彙推論教學的控制組學生。 （3） 字形、句義及文章大意為最常被學生運用來做字彙推論的線索。這一點控制組及實驗組學生均是如此，但實驗組學生使用地較頻繁，而且利用的推論線索也較控制組學生更多且更適當。 根據以上的結果，本研究提出三點建議： （1） 字彙推論教學可以融合於學校課程之中進行，一節課十至十五分鐘讓學生練習推論字義，四個月的教學，學生已能利用各類推論線索對字義做適當的推論。英語教學雜誌及英語郵報上的文章，是提供學生更多練習機會的理想補充教材。 （2） 老師教導字彙推論技巧時，應選擇適合學生程度、符合學生背景知識及具有充分線索供學生推論的教材或文章，避免學生因推論線索不足而胡亂猜測，無法對其閱讀理解有助益。並從較簡單的『單字本身』及『句內上下文』線索教起，再循序進入較難的『跨句上下文』和『背景知識』線索。 （3） 當學生出現閱讀困難時，老師應先確定困難形成的原因，分辨究竟是字彙基本能力不足或不懂得運用策略造成的，才能對症下藥，幫助學生增進字彙學習及培養閱讀理解能力。 / This study investigates the lexical inferencing made by Taiwan EFL students at a junior high school when they encounter unknown words in English texts. The researcher examines the effect of lexical inferencing on their vocabulary learning and reading comprehension, and the types of knowledge sources and contextual cues they use in the process. Sixty-eight students, thirty-four from Class 201 and thirty-four from Class 204, are selected as the participants for this study. These students are at the similar English proficiency level according to their academic proficiency scores last semester. The vocabulary test and reading comprehension test of GEPT, elementary level (LTTC, 2001) are used in the pretest to measure the participants’ vocabulary knowledge and reading comprehension ability before treatment. A questionnaire is applied to investigate the varied types of knowledge sources and contextual cues used by the participants in the process of lexical inferencing both in the pretest and the posttest. The treatment—lexical inferencing instruction, lasting for four months, is conducted on the participants in the experimental group. After the treatment, two posttests of vocabulary and reading comprehension are conducted again to assess if there is any significant difference on vocabulary knowledge and reading comprehension between the controlled group and the experimental group. The main findings of this study are as follows: 1. There is a significant correlation between students’ vocabulary knowledge and reading comprehension. Better vocabulary competence contributes to better reading comprehension. Vocabulary competence can serve as good predictors of reading ability in a foreign language. 2. Lexical inferencing instruction does contribute to better performances in vocabulary and reading comprehension tests. The participants who receive instruction demonstrate significant progress. Lexical inferencing instruction also results in the recognition and employment of varied types of knowledge sources and contextual cues which facilitate the appropriate word meanings inferred. 3. Both groups use similar types of knowledge sources and contextual cues when making inferences. However, students in the experimental group make use of more types of knowledge sources and contextual cues in the process of inferencing and they practice the inferencing strategy more frequently. Sentence level meaning, word morphology, and discourse level meaning are the cues most frequently used by both groups. Pedagogical implications of this study and suggestions for further research are also presented. 1. Instruction of vocabulary inferring can be integrated into regular curriculum. It takes only 10 to 15 minutes per class for students to practice the inference strategy. As shown in our experiment, after four months of instruction, students achieve significant progress in the use of knowledge sources and contextual cues while reading. Articles in English learning magazines or bilingual newspapers are good supplementary reading materials for practice. These materials are usually longer and contain various types of knowledge sources and contextual cues. 2. To teach inferring skills, teachers should choose the reading texts which are familiar to students and contain enough knowledge sources and contextual cues. Students incline to giving wild guesses when they can not find adequate cues to help them do the job. Lexical inference instruction can be conducted by focusing on the word level cues in the first phase, then extending to the sentence level cues, and to the wilder discourse level cues. Equipping students with rich world knowledge is also helpful. 3. Teachers should examine students’ reading difficulties should to figure out what the problems are. Students’ reading problems may result from lack of basic linguistic competence or lexical strategies in reading. With knowledge of these problems, the teacher can help the students overcome their difficulties and become successful readers.

本文旨在探討台灣國中生在英語閱讀時, 運用「放聲思考配對練習法」結合「單字解讀策略」教學的成效及影響, 研究對象是依安置測驗所選出兩班具有高度同質性的國三學生, 隨機分派為一實驗組, 一控制組, 並依其安置測驗結果分為高、低兩組。 實驗組在老師教完單字解讀策略後, 由一高分組學生和一低分組學生隨機配對做為期八週的放聲思考閱讀訓練, 並且在訓練活動前後, 實驗組和控制組所有的學生皆施予單字解讀成就測驗, 閱讀理解成就測驗, 及英語閱讀學習態度量表, 實驗組更多加施予後設認知問卷及對此訓練活動的反應問卷, 同時在實驗組訓練過程中, 隨機抽取一組配對的學生將他們運用「放聲思考配對練習法」作答的過程錄音下來以便分析。 本研究結果顯示: (一)實驗組和控制組在單字解讀成就測驗有顯著差異。亦即, 運用「放聲思考配對練習法」結合「單字解讀策略」的教學有效地增進了學生字彙推測的成績表現, 對低程度的學生效果尤其明顯。(二)在四種單字解讀策略中, 「放聲思考配對練習法」最能增進學生在「往前線索策略」和「背景知識線索策略」的成績表現, 對不同程度的學生而言, 低程度學生的「往前線索策略」成績進步最多。(三)實驗組和控制組在閱讀理解成就測驗並沒有顯著差異。亦即, 此一訓練活動並不能改進學生在閱讀理解的成績表現。(四)實驗組和控制組的英語閱讀學習態度量表有顯著差異。即運用「放聲思考配對練習法」結合「單字解讀策略」的教學有效地增進了學生對英語閱讀的學習態度, 尤其對高程度的學生效果尤其明顯。在四種分項學習態度中, 學生的「免除對英語閱讀的恐懼」學習態度進步最多。(五)在後設認知方面, 實驗組的學生在接受此一閱讀訓練活動後, 對自己在文章大意、文章相關知識及猜字技巧的閱讀困難上有顯著的認知, 並且也認定猜字技巧是有效的英語閱讀策略。(六)從反應問卷中顯示, 接受此一閱讀訓練活動後, 大部分的學生認為運用「放聲思考配對練習法」結合「單字解讀策略」的教學對他們的字彙推測技巧是有幫助的, 且其幫助大於單獨運用「放聲思考配對練習法」或單獨運用「單字解讀策略」, 並且認為此一閱讀訓練活動有助於對自己和對他人閱讀過程的了解。但大多數的學生對運用此一閱讀訓練活動於未來英語課程中仍採保留態度。 根據上述的結果, 本研究建議國中英語教師可以運用「放聲思考配對練習法」結合「單字解讀策略」的教學來增進學生在英語閱讀時字彙推測的技巧和對英語閱讀的學習態度, 以及加強他們對自我閱讀過程的認知。同時, 為了能讓「放聲思考配對練習法」在學生身上發揮最大的學習效果, 教師應考慮學生在語言學習上的個別差異現象以及此一合作學習法時間掌握的問題, 以避免學生心理上的排斥作用和學習上的反效果。 / This thesis explores EFL lexical inferencing abilities and reading behaviors of junior high school students in Taiwan. Thinking Aloud Pair Problem Solving (TAPPS) and instruction of Word-solving Strategies were integrated to see whether they had effects on students’ lexical inferencing abilities, reading comprehension, learning attitude toward and metacognitive awareness of English reading. Two third-grade junior high school classes were selected as one experimental group and one control group, both with high-and low-proficiency levels. Results were found from the statistical analysis of the experiment. First, TAPPS training in word-solving strategies proved quite beneficial in enhancing students’ lexical inferencing abilities, and the low-proficiency students benefited more than the high-proficiency students. Second, TAPPS training in word-solving strategies indeed facilitated students’ use of forward cues and background knowledge cues, and the low-proficiency students improved most in their use of forward cues. Third, TAPPS training in word-solving strategies did not benefit students in their general reading comprehension. Fourth, TAPPS training in word-solving strategies successfully helped the students change their learning attitude toward English reading, especially the high-proficiency students. As to the different learning attitudes, students’ learning attitude of “The freedom from fear of English reading” changed most. Fifth, after receiving this training activity, the students’ metacognitive awareness of English reading was significantly higher. Sixth, the response questionnaire revealed that most of the students considered TAPPS training in word-solving strategies helpful and gave positive responses to this training activity. However, most of the students were conservative about recommending this training activity to future English classes. These aforementioned findings in this study suggested that junior high school English teachers could adopt TAPPS training in word-solving strategies to enhance students’ lexical inferencing abilities, change their learning attitude and reinforce their metacognitive awareness of English reading. However, it should be cautioned here that when teachers try to implement TAPPS training in English reading comprehension, they should consider students’ personal difference in language learning and the disruptive and time-consuming drawback of TAPPS to avoid students’ potential rejection and failure of the whole training activity.

各類電子商務網站上的推薦機制應用已日趨廣泛且成熟。而隨著決策問題日漸複雜，現行的推薦機制發展已經可以看到應用的界限，再也無法貼近使用者所面臨的複雜問題。現行的推薦機制架構需要被重新審視、定義與設計其核心演算法。本研究用更寬廣的角度看待推薦機制，並將改良後的推薦機制視為解決問題的新典範。 首先，本研究定義了改良後的推薦機制所應支援的功能，包括：階層式條件的多維度推薦以及多階段的推薦。多維度推薦機制能夠讓使用者從不同的面向去看待決策問題，而階層式條件則允許使用者針對每個維度再往下設定階層式條件，幫助決策者更貼切的描述所遭遇的問題，如此一來推薦機制所提供的推論結果才能更符合決策者的原意。而多階段推薦則是協助決策者進行一連串的規劃方案，而這樣的推薦結論能夠提供可行方案的遠景，讓決策者能夠預先為可能發生的狀況進行準備，進而深化決策者對目前推薦結論的信心。 除了力求每個(或多個)階段推薦結論的正確性，推薦系統也要與所有的決策階段緊密結合（不僅止於資料搜集階段），所以必須能夠提供決策者行為面的建議，確切的建議決策者應該採取的行動。確切的行為面資訊推薦結論對於決策活動的參考價值更高。 所以，本研究修改了傳統的案例推導法(CBR)，試圖讓傳統CBR演算法成為符合改良後個案推薦機制的規範，因為CBR演算法最符合人類求解問題的邏輯程序，因此本研究在改良式個案推薦機制中重現CBR演算法中的4R推理循環。而且為了真正落實修正後的CBR演算法，本研究還結合了基因演算法提出GCBR的概念，幫助改良式個案推薦系統能夠更快速有效的收斂出推薦的結論。 最後，本研究也預期所提出的推薦機制能夠應用於各種不同的領域，而為了驗證所提出的推薦機制執行效率與可行性，本研究也列舉了數個實驗進行的規範方案。本研究所提出的改良式個案推薦機制核心演算法為一概化模型，能夠求解不同型態的決策問題。 / Recommender system can be regarded as fundamental technology of electronic commence web site. Some researchers also claimed that recommender system push the electronic web site to another development peak. Recommender system would need some mechanisms. These recommender mechanisms should be reviewed, redefined and expanded to include particularly case-based mechanism that focus on reality problem solving. Recently, CBR applications had been extended to provide recommendation mechanism based on previous cases. The abstract recommendation problems are usually hard to be formulated in strict mathematic models, and often solved via word-mouse experience. Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) is a paradigm, concept and instinctive mechanism for ill-defined and unstructured problem solving. Similarly to human problem solving process, CBR retrieves past experiences to reuse for target problem. Of course, the solutions of past cases may need to be revised for applying. The successful problem-solving experiences are then retained for further reusing. These are well-known 4R processes (retrieve, reuse, revise, and retain) of traditional CBR. Nevertheless, the case-based recommender mechanism is particularly suitable for reality problem reference because case-style can be used to describe unstructured problem. The next generation recommender mechanism should focus on the real life problem solving and applications. Thus, case-based recommender mechanism can be regarded as a new problem solving paradigm. To enhance traditional CBR algorithm to case-based recommender mechanism, the original CBR should be redesigned. In the traditional CBR algorithm, based on multiple objectives, the retrieved cases could provide to decision maker for references. However, as the decision problem is getting complex, pure multiple objective problem representation is too unsophisticated to reflect reality. Thus, a revised CBR algorithm equipped with capability to deal with more complexity is needed. Additionally, decision makers would wish to achieve the actionable information. The existing recommender mechanism can not provide the actionable direction to decision maker. Based on previous cases provided by CBR, decision maker would further hope that recommender mechanism could tell them how to do. These capabilities should be included into traditional CBR algorithm. Furthermore, traditional CBR has to evaluate all cases in case base to return the most similar case(s). The efficiency of CBR is obviously negatively related to the size of case base. Thus, a number of approaches have devoted to decrease the effort for case evaluation. This research proposes a revised CBR mechanism, named GCBR, which can be regarded as next generation CBR algorithm. GCBR can be applied to reality applications, particularly case-based recommender mechanism. Thus, it can be treated as a new problem solving paradigm. It also intends to improve traditional CBR efficiency stability no matter what kinds of case representation and indexing approaches.

本文旨在探討情境推論策略對台灣國中生字彙學習及閱讀理解兩方面的成效。本研究結果希望對英文老師在單字及閱讀教學上有很大的啟示作用及幫助。 本實驗的研究對象為台北縣某國中75位國三學生，所有受試者依據其原班級隨機分派為實驗組及控制組，實驗組接受情境推論策略訓練，而控制組則採用傳統教學法。在教學活動前後，實驗組及控制組的所有學生皆施予Paribakht和 Westche設計的字彙知識等級測驗，猜測字義測驗，閱讀理解測驗及英語學習背景問卷，實驗組則於後測時另外接受對此訓練活動的問卷調查。 本研究結果顯示：(一)實驗組在在接受「情境推論策略」訓練後於字彙學習上有顯著差異，亦即「情境推論策略」的教學有效增進學生字彙學習表現。(二)實驗組在接受「情境推論策略」訓練後，在猜測字義的表現上有顯著的進步。(三)在五種情境線索的題目表現，實驗組在「同義線索」和「定義線索」的題目表現上最好，而在「解釋線索」的題目表現上較不理想。至於五種情境線索的運用，實驗組較能正確使用「語調線索」，而較不會正確使用「解釋線索」。(四) 實驗組在接受「情境推論策略」訓練後，於閱讀理解表現上有顯著進步，，亦即「情境推論策略」的教學有效增進學生閱讀理解。(五)從反應問卷中顯示，接受此一策略訓練活動後，大部分的學生對於「情境推論策略」教學傾向於正面的肯定，並期望在未來英語課程中能繼續進行此教學活動。但部分學生對於在閱讀中碰到不認識單字仍有些許不安。 根據上述研究結果，本研究建議國中英語教師可以運用「情境推論策略」教學增進學生字彙學習和猜測字義能力，以及加強他們對於閱讀理解的表現和對英文學習的正面肯定。同時，為了能讓「情境推論策略」在學生字彙學習上發揮最大效益，教師應考慮字彙練習及字彙在文章中重複出現的重要。 / The present study aims to explore the effectiveness of contextual inference strategy (CIS) on vocabulary learning and reading comprehension of junior high school students in Taiwan. Two third- grade junior high school classes were selected as one experimental group and one control group. The research methods involved word-guessing pre- and post-test, vocabulary pre- and post-test, reading comprehension pre- and post-test, and questionnaires. The data analyses were descriptive statistics, Paired Sample T-test, and Independent Sample T-test. Based on the results of this study, major findings are summarized as follows. First, the CIS instruction led to greater gains in learners’ vocabulary knowledge than traditional instruction did. Second, CIS instruction had a significant effect on the experimental group’s word guessing abilities. Third, the participants performed better in the questions of synonym and definition clues while they were not good at questions of explanation clues. As for their use of contextual clues, the correctness rate of mood or tone clue ranks the highest while the explanation clue the lowest. Fourth, the two groups’ scores of the post-reading comprehension tests showed significant difference, indicating participants who were instructed with CIS performed better in the reading comprehension than those who didn’t. Fifth, according to the response questionnaire, most students considered CIS instruction helpful and gave positive responses to this training activity. The aforementioned findings in this study suggested that junior high school teachers could adopt CIS training to enhance students’ vocabulary learning and word-guessing abilities, and to reinforce their reading comprehension and positive attitudes toward English learning. Also, to help students perform better in vocabulary learning, teachers could implement focused instruction, such as redundant presentation and exercises.