美國擁有豐富的石油儲量，目前已探明的石油儲量即達到 485 億桶，居世界 第 9 位；同時也於 2014 年追過沙烏地阿拉伯，以平均每日 1164 萬桶的產量成為 世界上最大石油生產國。但另一方面，美國每日的石油消耗量，更大於歐洲及歐 亞大陸內 29 個國家的每日消耗量的總合，成為世界上最大的石油消費國。身為 世界上最大的能源消費國及戰後世界秩序的主導者，同時歷經一、二次世界大戰 及石油危機的重大衝擊後，深知能源的穩定供應是國家安全的重要基礎，美國必 須盡全力透過外交甚至軍事手段以確保能源的安全，所以歷屆政府都以能源安全 作為國家安全及外交政策的重點。 中東是目前全球己探明石油儲量最大的地區，也是全球石油產量最大的地區， 是以美國以能源戰略為導向的外交政策（簡稱能源外交）傳統上是以中東石油為 重心，美國也將中東地區的均勢與穩定、確保石油運輸通道的安全等視為其最根 本的國家利益之一。二次世界大戰之後，美國為了擴張或鞏固其在中東地區的影 響力而投入了大量的資源進行政治、經濟及軍事的干預。而頁岩油的出現使得美 國石油自給率大幅提高，對中東地區石油的依賴也迅速下滑。 頁岩油的出現是否會讓美國改變其向中東傾斜的外交政策，進一步將其全球 戰略部署重心進行調整至快速崛起的亞洲地區，值得我們觀察與探討。本論文以 文獻研究之方式，透過分析美國對石油進口的依賴程度與其在中東發生軍事衝突 時所採用的外交政策工具之間的關聯，嘗試探討在頁岩油革命大幅提高美國能源 自給率後，是否會影響美國對中東地區事務的干預程度。 本研究發現，石油進口比例的確影響了美國在中東地區所運用的外交政策工 具。石油進口比例高時，美國面對中東的跨國軍事衝突時傾向採取強度較高的外 交政策工具；石油進口比例低時，則採取干預強度較低的外交政策工具。是以本 研究認為，在頁岩油革命使美國進一步降低對進口石油的依賴後、將使中東這個 提供美國主要石油來源的地區的重要性降低。但另一方面，中東除了提供美國重 要的石油來源，亦是全球的石油供應中心，美國對中東地區的影響力不僅關係到 美國的能源安全，亦關係到美國全球霸權的地位。 / United States has abundant oil reserves that reserves reached 485 billion barrels, ranking No. 9 in the world; and also chase in 2014 over Saudi-Arabia, to 1164 million barrels of production per day on average to become the world largest oil producer. On the other hand, the US daily oil consumption, the greater the total combined daily consumption in Europe and Eurasia in the 29 countries, the world's largest oil consumer. As the world's largest energy consumer and the postwar world order leader, after a while, after the Second World War and the significant impact of the oil crisis, we know that stable supply of energy is an important basis for the national security of the United States must do efforts through diplomatic and even military means to guarantee energy security, the successive governments have focused on energy security as national security and foreign policy. The Middle East is currently the world's largest oil reserves in the region have been proven, is the world's largest oil production area, based on the US foreign policy-oriented energy strategy (referred to energy diplomacy) is traditionally focus on Middle East oil, the United States will in the Middle East balance and stability in the region, to ensure the safety of oil transport corridor, etc. regarded as one of the most fundamental interests of their country. After World War II, the United States in order to expand or consolidate its influence in the Middle East and put a lot of resources, political, economic, and military intervention. The emergence of shale oil self-sufficiency rate of such a substantial increase in US oil dependence on Middle East oil is also declining rapidly. Shale oil occurs whether the United States will change its foreign policy towards the Middle East tilt further its global strategic center of gravity to adjust to the rapid rise of Asia, we should observe and discuss. In this paper, after the manner of literature, through the analysis of foreign policy tools related U.S. dependence on oil imports and its military conflict in the Middle East used between attempts to discuss a substantial increase in US energy self-sufficiency rate in shale oil revolution, whether the United States will affect the level of intervention in the Middle East affairs. The study found that the proportion of imported oil does affect US foreign policy tool in the Middle East by the use of. A high proportion of oil imports, the United States when faced with cross-border military conflict in the Middle East tends to take a higher intensity of a foreign policy tool; low proportion of imported oil, then take a low intensity intervention foreign policy tool. The present study is that in the US shale oil revolution to further reduce the importance of post-import dependence on oil, the Middle East, will provide the main source of US oil region is reduced. On the other hand, the Middle East and the United States in addition to providing an important source of oil, is also a center of global oil supplies, the US forces in the Middle East not only to America's energy security, but also related to the status of US global hegemony.

第一章 導論 第二章 模型建立 第三章 固定匯率 第四章 浮動匯率 第五章 最適政策配對 第六章 台灣實證分析 第七章 結論與建議 本文分為兩大部分––理論與實證部分，從第一章至第五章探討理論上的架構，所使 用的工具是比較靜態與動態兩種方法。第六章則是實證部分，使用計量上的一段、二 段、三段式的迥歸估計方法，並加以比較三種方法的結果，選擇最適當的估計值，以 作為第七章評估最政策配對與穩定性的基礎，從而提出最適政策分配。

機動車輛已成為空氣污染的首要污染來源之一，其所排放大量的一氧化碳、二氧化碳對地方乃至於全球環境皆造成不利的影響。為了因應環境污染與溫室效應，各國除了採取行政管制措施外，亦引進經濟誘因工具來落實污染者付費的原則。本研究的目的即是探討，台灣地區目前所實施的政策工具對於減少來自移動污染源的污染排放量的有效性。 本文利用台灣地區二十三個縣市 1998 年至 2006 年共九年的追蹤資料，以兩種模型進行實證：第一個模型採用的是一階差分後的普通最小平方法迴歸模型，可避免假性迴歸的問題發生；第二個模型為似不相關迴歸模型，藉由誤差項間的關聯性來結合北部、中部、東部、南部四個地區的迴歸式，觀察政策工具在不同區域間對污染減量的效果。 實證結果顯示，管制與稅費這兩種政策工具確實會對移動污染源產生的空氣污染有相當的抑制效果；但是相較之下，管制措施的影響力相對於稅費的徵收來得明顯。因此，已知管制工具具有環境保護的政策有效性外，若欲使得稅費政策對空氣污染減量也有更明顯的成效，便應實施綠色租稅改革，以期能夠對生活環境產生良好的改善。 / Due to its high share in total air pollutant emissions, mobile pollution source is an issue of particular consideration. Vehicles produce large volumes of emissions such as CO, CO2, and so on. These gases can be detrimental to local, regional and global environment. With the increasing concern over rising pollution levels and greenhouse effect, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of different environmental policy instruments which are used to reduce mobile source air pollution. 　　For this paper, a case study of Taiwan is demonstrated for the estimation. Using the first-differenced panel data collected from 1998 to 2006, we use two models, namely “Ordinary least square model” and “Seemingly unrelated regression model” to investigate whether the command and control policy or the economic-incentive tax strategy is better for emission abatement. The first-differenced ordinary least square model can be used to avoid spurious regression, and the seemingly unrelated regression system integrates four sub-equations by assuming their disturbances are correlated, explaining some phenomenon in different areas. 　　The result shows that both control and tax strategies are worthwhile to be adopted. However, regulation policy results in cutting down much more CO and CO2 than using the excise taxes and fuel fees as an environmental instrument. Therefore, we conclude that it is required to implement the green tax system reform in order to create beneficial changes in our life.

本文以台灣工具機產業為例，來分析國家產業政策與公共研發機構的轉變，以及對工具機產業發展的影響。1990年代以後，世界上先進工具機國家均逐漸朝向高階工具機技術發展，台灣工具機產業亦面臨南韓和大陸等工業化國家的追趕，而不得不進行技術學習和升級。此外，台灣工具機產業有90%是屬於中小企業，但是高階工具機技術複雜、研發困難，費用龐大，企業多無法負擔。因此，本文欲探討國家角色，亦即產業政策與公共研發機構對台灣工具機產業發展的影響。 本文的研究成果可以歸納如下：第一，國家逐漸扮演起產業輔導者的角色，產業政策與工具的轉變則是於1980年代起廣泛運用各種政策工具達11種類型，1990年代以財政補助為主要誘因鼓勵業界投入技術研發，2001年以後則是將組織聯盟作為主要的政策工具，為台灣工具機產業的發展開啟了另一種新的技術學習型態。其次，機械所的研發策略轉變為高階工具機技術與工具機關鍵組件技術的雙軸技術研發模式。中區技術服務中心普遍獲得中部工具機業者的信任與肯定，也使得機械所能夠順利協調廠商形成整合性研發聯盟。第三，整合性研發聯盟促使廠商水平合作共同降低研發成本與風險，並藉由產業上下游整機的垂直整合，提升專業模組廠的技術能力，降低模組成本，和提升整機廠的競爭力。 / This thesis is about the upgrading of Taiwan’s machine tool industry and the role of the state on this industry’s transformation. Taiwan’s maching tool industry faced an urgent challenge after the 1990s, as the counterparts in advanced countries have made rapid progess on technological level, while other industrializing countries, such as South Korea and China, had also been catching up quickly. Due to the fact that most of the firms in Taiwan’s machine tool industry were small and medium-sized enterprises that were not affordable financially to do cutting-edge technology research, the burden therefore fall upon the state. This essay has three major findings. To begin with, the state has gradually become an instructor in helping the development of the industry. The state’s role has changed from being an aloof promoter by using various policy instruments to help developing the industry as a whole, to utilizing fiscal incentives to encourage enterprises to engage into R&D activities, and to encouraging the formation of industrial consortia after 2001. Secondly, the role of the major pubic research institute, the Mechanical Industrial Research Laboratories（MIRL）of the Industrial Technology Research Institute has changed from a remoted research oriented institute to one that engage heavily with local firms, from paying attention only to develop new machine models to ally with local firms to develop core components in the machine tool. Thirdly, the formation of R&D alliances, led by MIRL, has largely upgraded the capability of the domestic enterprises. This not only shows in the upgrading of local firms’ technological competence, but also in the improvement of organizational capability of specialized module suppliers and, the reduction of cost structure of the products.