大地起伏值為正高與橢球高的差異量，如果取得高精度的大地起伏值，可以利用衛星定位測量施測橢球高並計算得到高精度的正高，其成本低廉，可望取代傳統的水準測量。而大地起伏值可以分為幾何法或重力法的大地起伏值，其中幾何法的大地起伏值計算方法簡易且精度高，可以利用曲面擬合方法取得之。但是幾何法的大地起伏值會受到地形起伏的影響，大範圍的曲面擬合會降低其精度。台灣的地形起伏大，難以進行大範圍曲面擬合。 於是本研究利用環域方法搜尋待測點位鄰近的水準點參與曲面方程式擬合大地起伏，試圖找到最適合的大地起伏擬合範圍。成果顯示：環域的範圍從10公里至30公里，利用二次曲面方程式擬合大地起伏在台灣平地區域能夠達到預測精度與內部精度同時低於5公分。另外由於衛星定位測量橢球高的誤差較高，需進行資料品質評估並進行粗差偵測。針對粗差偵測提出新的方法，利用最佳化演算法中的量子行為粒子群演算法計算最小二乘平差法中的權矩陣，期望能夠將粗差觀測量的權重降低，達到粗差偵測的效果。成果顯示最佳化權矩陣演算法，能夠將粗差對平差系統的影響量降到最低。 本研究建立一套台灣地區的大地起伏擬合作業程序：利用環域搜尋鄰近水準點、曲面方程式及環域範圍選擇與資料的粗差偵測，可獲得高品質的大地起伏。 / The geoidal undulation is the difference of ellipsoid height and orthometric height. We can obtain high accuracy of orthometric height by existing high accuracy of geoidal undulation and the ellipsoidal height measuring by GPS. It expected to replace the traditional leveling survey due to the less cost. This study uses buffer method to search the leveling benchmarks around the object point, attempts to find the proper range of fitting geoidal undulation to curve surface. Experimental results shows that it can archive 5cm level on both prediction error and internal precision by fitting geoidal undulation on 2nd curve surface model where the buffer range is from 10 km to 30 km. In this study, also uses the quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization to calculate the weight matrix of least square adjustment, the purpose is to down-weighting the suspicious outlier, and detect the outlier. Experimental results shows that the optimal weight matrix algorithm can reduce the influence of outlier. This study establish a procedure of fitting geoidal undulation: using buffer analysis to search the adjacent leveling benchmark, selecting the proper buffer range and surface equation and detecting outlier in data.

本論文為一教學實驗之研究，探討如何運用以電腦科技為媒介設計創新的學習環境，激勵台灣技專院校英語低成就學生之學習動機，增進其英語聽力能力。本研究以英語歌曲作為提升學習興趣的動源，電腦輔助學習任務為提供好玩有趣學習過程的憑藉；如此，學生可由愉悅聽歌、趣味活動中實作學習並達成學習任務目標。本論文並探索英語歌曲聽力電腦輔助學習任務對學生聽力字彙與知覺能力之影響，並了解學生對教學設計之歌曲聽力學習任務之評估。由學生在全民英檢聽力、英語母音知覺測驗、及歌曲單字聽力各方面的成績進步，顯示本實驗教學能有效改善低成就學生英語字彙與聽力學。根據相關與變異數分析結果，對學習任務評估越滿意的學生英語歌曲單字聽力成績進步越大。因此，本研究所設計之英語歌曲聽力學習任務能激發學生運用電腦與相關軟體學習編輯聲音影片，來了解英語 聲音與意義的連結、訓練養成辨識斷句的知覺聽力。此教學設計融入聽力教學、任務型學習、電腦輔助學習；且以設計研究方法觀點記錄理論基礎探討、教學資源運用、英語聽力課程中歌曲時間排練及歌曲切割之投影片簡報、歌曲對嘴表演影片製作學習任務之設計執行，提供其他英語教師作為電腦輔助聽力學習活動設計之參考。 / This study is an instructional experiment on how an innovative learning environment is constructed to motivate and improve English learning of the low-achievers at Taiwanese polytechnic colleges. Thus, this research employs English popular songs as a motivator and computer-assisted task design as a mediator for the students to do listening and play with the song materials. This instructional design provides these students with concrete task experiential learning and the pursuit for goal-oriented success, along with joyful song listening and playful task activities. This research also investigates the effects of these song listening tasks on the improvement of listening vocabulary and perceptual skills of the participants as well as their appraisals toward the designed tasks: time-rehearsing, segmenting, and lip-syncing. The effects of these song listening tasks are consolidated from the participants’ improved listening test scores from the elementary GEPT Listening Test, the Perception of Spoken English Test, and the Target Lexical Listening Test, their enhanced learning motivation and involved task performance, and their affirmed appraisals about their task fondness and the task usefulness. Furthermore, this study documents the design, implementation, and evaluation of such a song listening task-based syllabus in a digital language lab, which demonstrates an integration of second language (L2) listening instruction, task-based learning and teaching (TBLT), and computer assisted language learning (CALL). The design-based research (DBR) perspectives are also adopted to explain the role of the computer-mediated context to the innovative task construction; in addition, the task features which facilitate listening skills development and stimulate learning experience are identified by the appraisal components of song fondness and easiness, task playfulness and easiness, and task usefulness. Thus, the designed listening tasks can be shared and applied to other similar learning contexts.

本文以目前台灣市場上所發行之兩個結構型商品—信用連動債券與利率連動債券為研究主題，信用連動債券之連動標的為國巨電子股份有限公司的信用風險，利率連動債券則以不同年限之交換利率利差為連動標的，本文利用數值方法分別評價此二理論價格，分析此類商品之結構、風險與收益。 本文以Hull and White利率三元樹模型和Li (1998) 建構信用曲線模型評價信用連動債券，並進一步分析信用模型內的回復率參數對信用連動債券價格之影響；在評價利率連動債券時，則採用LIBOR市場模型，利用蒙地卡羅模擬法模擬此商品之理論價格，並進行配息條款改變下之情境分析。

信用衍生性商品可規避或轉移信用風險，為金融機構有效管理信用風險的利器。而信用連結票券可視為結合普通票券與信用違約交換的結構型商品，使得票券的發行者得以規避其交易對手的信用風險，投資者也可藉由承擔信用風險而享受投資報酬率增加的益處。 本文採用無套利的利率模型Hull-White三元樹來建構利率期間結構，可得到與市場利率期間結構一致的利率期間結構。在假設資產違約回收率為外生變數下，採用實務界常用的方法(Duffie and Singleton,1999)建構信用曲線，以求出邊際違約機率。在已知每個節點上的預期現金流量下，利用回推法可計算出信用連結票券的價值。

對偏差行為的解釋有多種理論，不過以後天的角度詮釋偏差行為，則社會控制理論、自我控制理論是最有力的解釋理論。本研究亦欲圖驗證此兩種理論在多變量潛在成長模型的效用。因此，研究者採用臺灣教育長期追蹤資料庫之資料，以自我控制信念、親子關係、同儕關係、學校依附感、教育抱負、學業成就預測偏差行為之變化。此外，並探究性別對潛在成長模型之影響。茲將研究成果陳述如下。 1、偏差行為隨著年級逐漸增加，日益增加，變異數亦逐漸擴大。 2、整體多變量潛在成長模型中，整體模式適配度良好。 3、自變項對偏差行為截距、斜率解釋量分別為.19、.32，顯示模式的解釋量仍有改善空間，其中對截距之預測達顯著者，分別為同儕關係截距、學校依附感截距、學業成就截距、親子關係截距。對斜率之預測力達顯著者，分別為學校依附感斜率、學校依附感截距、同儕關係斜率、同儕關係截距、教育抱負截距。 4、運用多群組分析，發現男女生並無測量不變性。 5、性別對偏差行為有重要影響。 6、預測女生的斜率主要考量其學校依附感和同儕關係，但預測男生偏差行為的斜率除了與學校、同儕的關係外，還要考量其教育抱負。 最後，根據上述的結論，研究者分別提出實務、研究方法、未來偏差行為研究之建議，以作為參考。 / The cause of deviation behavior is explained by many theories. However, social control theory and self control theory are the most famous and important theories. Research would like to confirm the theories which are applied in multivariable latent growth curve model. Therefore, TEPS data are analyzed to investigate the model, and the results are as follows: (1)Deviation behavior gradually increases with time and variety of it also rises. (2)The fit of model is good. (3)The intercept is explained 19% by independent variables and the slope is explained 32%. In addition, it is significant for the intercept of the relation of peer group, attachment feeling of school, parental relation and academic achievement in the regression which is employed to anticipate the intercept. It is significant that the intercept of the relation of peer group, attachment feeling of school, and educational ambition and the slope of peer group, and attachment feeling of school can anticipate slope of deviation behavior effectively. (4)Employing multi-group analysis, there exist gender differences in the model. (5)Sex has influence on deviation behavior. (6)For girls, the slope of deviation behavior is anticipated by social relations, but for boys, besides the peer relationship, it is also included the educational ambition. According the results, some suggestions are proposed for future researches and the administration authority.

死亡壓縮(Mortality Compression)意指死亡年齡更集中，是最近廣受注意的研究議題，和生存曲線矩形化（Rectangularization）關係密切，以統計分佈的角度描述，則是死亡年齡會逐漸退化到某個特定年齡。換言之，如果死亡壓縮和壽命有上限兩者都成立，以統計術語而言，代表壽命的期望值有上限、變異數會收斂，可藉由死亡年齡分配探討壽命變化。 本文希望以統計方法與資料品質等兩個面向探討死亡壓縮與延壽之間的關係。除了過去使用的無母數方法，如檢視各年度生命表上死亡分佈的最短區間（25%、50%及75%）與死亡人數最多的年齡（Modal Age）的變化，探討死亡壓縮與壽命是否有延長；另一方面，也將對死亡曲線作參數設定，觀察死亡年齡分佈的標準差變化。由於過往的研究多使用的生命表資料，本研究將比較使用生命表資料（死亡資料經過修勻）或原始死亡人數資料對結果的影響。 本研究藉由電腦模擬比較各種估計標準差方法的差異，包括Kannisto (2000) 提出的SD(M+)法與本文考量的非線性極值法(Nonlinear-Maximization)，衡量何者具有較小的均方誤差，並探討錯誤設定分配偵誤的敏感度；另外，本文可討論使用經過修勻的死亡率及原始死亡率對於估計結果的影響。除了電腦模擬，本研究也套入實際死亡資料（如臺灣、美國、…等國資料，資料來源：Human Mortality Database），檢視死亡壓縮是否存在。 / Mortality compression is one of the popular research issues in longevity risk. It means that the age-at-death would concentrate on a narrower range, and it is also related to the concept of rectangularization of survival curve. In terms of statistical distribution, mortality compression indicates that the age-at-death degenerates to a certain age, and it can be used to study changes of lifespan. If the lifespan has a limit, or mortality compression does exist, this suggests that the life expectancy has a limit and the variance of age-at-death would converge. In the study, we evaluate the mortality compression using the statistical methods and considering the issue of data quality. In addition to the nonparametric methods used in the previous studies, such as shortest confidence interval on the distribution of age-at-death and the modal age, we consider optimization methods for estimating the standard deviation of age-at-death distribution. In specific, we compare the SD(M+) proposed by Kannisto (2000) and the method of Nonlinear-Maximization, and check which method has a smaller MSE (Mean Squared Error). For the issue of data quality, we compare the estimation results of using mortality rates from life table data with those using the raw data. In addition to computer simulation, we consider the sensitivity analysis of age-at-death distribution, to evaluate the estimation method. Furthermore, based on the data from Human Mortality Database, we apply the method of Nonlinear-Maximization to life table data (i.e., graduated mortality rates) and raw data, and check if there are significant differences. The estimation results of empirical study are also used to evaluate if there is mortality compression and if there is a longevity limit.

2016年的英國脫歐公投，最終以51.89%比48.11%的差距，決定了英國脫歐的命運。各界紛紛揣測各種可能造成民眾投下脫歐一票的原因，包含個人經濟狀況、政黨認同、受民粹操控、反菁英、對歐洲認同等。本文針對既有研究中尚存在之空缺，聚焦「議題投票取向」對選民投票抉擇的影響，探究脫歐陣營對資訊的扭曲是否對選民的投票抉擇有顯著影響。論文就脫歐派針對國民健保、移民、脫歐後的英國對外經貿、失業率、勞工權益保障與是否能無條件持續享有歐盟單一市場好處這六項議題，透過「二分勝算對數模型」進行分析，從個體層次行為來瞭解資訊扭曲對選民在脫歐公投中投票行為的影響。 研究結果顯示，在移民潮來襲、民眾高喊反全球化與選民不安全感高漲的大環境背景下，脫歐陣營對選民所關心之議題的煽動與對資訊的操控使選民在做出投票抉擇時受到明顯誤導。此外，模型結果亦顯示，選民的個人社經背景與心理態度認知同樣對選民投票行為產生影響。總結而言，本研究透過微觀層次的分析，針對促使選民投下脫歐一票的因素做出深入探討，並以「資訊扭曲」作為重要變數，補充議題投票相關研究之不足。 / In the Brexit referendum held in June 2016, 51.89 per cent of the voter voted Leave and 48.11 per cent voted Remain. The result sealed the fate of the UK as an outsider of the European Union. While the reasons behind voter’s choice to leave the EU remain disputed, individual voter’s socio-economic status, party identification, populism, anti-elite mood, and identity toward European were among the most frequently listed factors. In order to fill the gap that existing researchs has left, this thesis focuses on the significance of “issue voting” in voting behavior. It discusses if the distortion of information by the Leave campaign had a significant impact on people’s voting choice. It uses the “logistic regression model” to analyse six issues brought about by the Leave campaign. They include the NHS, immigration, trading arrangements with other nations, unemployment, working conditions for British workers, and unconditional maintaining of all the benefits from the EU. By focusing on the individual level, I try to investigate how the distortion of information has impacted upon people’s voting behavior in the Brexit referendum. The study shows that against the background of an increased flow of immigrants and heightened anti-globalization mood, voters had a strong sense of insecurity. Under such circumstances, the Leave campaign exploited the opportunity to incite voters on issues they cared most about, manipulated information during the demagogic campaign, and misled people on their voting decision. In addition, the model also demonstrates that voters’ socioeconomic status and mental cognizance have the same effect on people’s voting behavior. In the nutshell, this thesis uses micro-level analysis to investigate voter behavior in the Brexit referendum. It brings in “information distortion” as a key variable in explaining voter behavior, a variable largely neglected in the existing literature on issue voting.

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第14651号 / 工博第3119号 / 新制||工||1464(附属図書館) / 27003 / UT51-2009-D363 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科高分子化学専攻 / (主査)教授 吉﨑 武尚, 教授 田中 文彦, 教授 金谷 利治 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第16792号 / 工博第3513号 / 新制||工||1531(附属図書館) / 29467 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科建築学専攻 / (主査)教授 上谷 宏二, 教授 竹脇 出, 教授 金子 佳生 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

本文以貝氏方法估計方向距離函數，加入單調性與曲度限制，同時考慮環境變數於模型中。為了凸顯考慮非意欲產出方向距離函數的優點，本文同時估計產出面射線距離函數，並與方向距離函數模型比較。實證分析資料為1970至2010年間各國總體經濟變數，分別在有無加入限制條件與環境變數的狀況下，估計兩種距離函數，從無效率值、效率分數與技術進步率等角度分析彼此間的差異。發現射線距離函數模型由於忽略非意欲產出，傾向高估生產單位的技術效率。另一方面，其係數估計值容易違反射線距離函數的先天性質，較不具參考性。而方向距離函數模型當中，有無加入限制條件與有無考慮環境變數的模型結果各不相同，其中同時加入限制條件與環境變數的模型結果最為合理。