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No description available.

Increasing human activities have brought about a global warming trend, and cause global sea level rise. Investigations of variations in coastal margins of Antarctica and in the glacial dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet provide useful diagnostic information for understanding and predicting sea level changes. This research investigates the coastal dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in terms of changes in the coastal margin and ice flow velocities. The primary methods used in this research include image segmentation based coastline extraction and image matching based velocity derivation. The image segmentation based coastline extraction method uses a modified adaptive thresholding algorithm to derive a high-resolution, complete coastline of Antarctica from 2000 orthorectified SAR images at the continental scale. This new coastline is compared with the 1997 coastline also derived from orthorectified Radarsat SAR images, and the 1963 coastline derived from Argon Declassified Intelligence Satellite Photographs for change detection analysis of the ice margins. The analysis results indicate, in the past four decades, the Antarctic ice sheet experienced net retreat and its areal extent has been reduced significantly. Especially, the ice shelves and glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula reveal a sustained retreating trend. In addition, the advance, retreat, and net change rates have been measured and inventoried for 200 ice shelves and glaciers. A multi-scale image matching algorithm is developed to track ice motion and to measure ice velocity for a number of sectors of the Antarctic coast based on 1997 and 2000 SAR image pairs. The results demonstrate that a multi-scale image matching algorithm is much more efficient and accurate compared with the conventional algorithm. The velocity measurements from the image matching method have been compared with those derived from InSAR techniques and those observed from conventional ground surveys during 1970-1971. The comparison reveals that the ice velocity in the front part of the Amery Ice Shelf has increased by about 50-200 m/a. The rates of ice calving and temporal variation of ice flow pattern have been also analyzed by integrating the ice margin change measurement with the ice flow velocity at the terminus of the outlet glacier.

The Darwin-Hatherton glacial system (DHGS) drains from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) and through the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) before entering the Ross Embayment. Large ice-free areas covered in glacial sediments surround the DHGS, and at least five glacial drift sheets mark the limits of previous ice extent. The glacier belongs to a group of slow-moving EAIS outlet glaciers which are poorly understood. Despite this, an extrapolation of a glacial drift sheet boundary has been used to determine the thickness of the EAIS and the advanced West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In order to accurately determine the past and present contributions of the Antarctic ice sheets to sea level changes, these uncertainties should be reduced. This study aims to examine the present and LGM ice dynamics of the DHGS by combining newly acquired field measurements with a 3-D numerical ice sheet-shelf model. The fieldwork included a ground penetrating radar survey of ice thickness and surface velocity measurements by GPS. In addition, an extensive dataset of airborne radar measurements and meteorological recordings from automatic weather stations were made available. The model setup involved nesting a high-resolution (1 km) model of the DHGS within a lower resolution (20 km) all-Antarctic simulation. The nested 3-D modelling procedure enables an examination of the impact of changes of the EAIS and WAIS on the DHGS behaviour, and accounts for a complex glacier morphology and surface mass balance within the glacial system. The findings of this study illustrate the difference in ice dynamics between the Darwin and Hatherton Glaciers. The Darwin Glacier is up to 1500 m thick, partially warm-based, has high driving stresses (~150 kPa), and measured ice velocities increase from 20-30 m yr⁻¹ in the upper parts to ~180 m yr⁻¹ in the lowermost steepest regions, where modelled flow velocities peak at 330 m yr⁻¹. In comparison, the Hatherton Glacier is relatively thin (<900 m), completely cold-based, has low driving stresses (~85 kPa), and is likely to flow with velocities <10 m yr⁻¹ in most regions. It is inferred that the slow velocities with which the DHGS flows are a result of high subglacial mountains restricting ice flow from the EAIS, large regions of frozen basal conditions, low SMB and undulating bedrock topography. The model simulation of LGM ice conditions within the DHGS implies that the ice thickness of the WAIS has been significantly overestimated in previous reconstructions. Results show that the surface of the WAIS and EAIS away from the TAM would have been elevated 600-750 and 0-80 m above present-day levels, respectively, for the DHGS to reach what was inferred to represent the LGM drift sheet limit. Ultimately, this research contributes towards a better understanding of the dynamic behaviour of slow moving TAM outlet glaciers, and provides new insight into past changes of the EAIS and WAIS. This will facilitate more accurate quantifications of contributions of the WAIS and EAIS to changes in global sea level.

Esta dissertação investiga o registro de conteúdo iônico do testemunho de gelo monte Johns (79°55'28"S; 94°23'18"O) obtido na Antártica Ocidental, contribuindo para o adensamento espacial de informações glacioquímicas empregadas em estudos paleoclimáticos. As concentrações de Na+ (16,6 ± 28,2 μg L-1), K+ (1,3 ± 3,7 μg L-1), Mg2+ (3,7 ± 3,7 μg L-1), Ca2+ (5,4 ± 3,4 μg L-1), Cl- (33,3 ± 43,7 μg L-1), SO42- (25,9 ± 17,7 μg L-1), NO3- (50,8 ± 18,5 μg L-1) e H3CSO3- (7,1 ± 5,4 μg L-1) foram determinadas por cromatografia iônica em 2.164 amostras para o período 1882–2008. A variabilidade sazonal de NO3- e, especialmente do nssSO42-, em antifase com Na+, possibilitou a datação pela contagem de ciclos anuais ao longo do período estudado. A identificação dos sinais vulcânicos do Krakatoa (1883), Agung (1963) e Pinatubo/Hudson (1991) foi usada para determinar horizontes de referência (datação absoluta). Eventos de aporte significativo de aerossóis foram identificados e agrupados considerando o conteúdo iônico, proveniência e estação do ano. A avaliação da proveniência dos íons e do balanço iônico mostra a origem da carga iônica: 36% é oriunda de aerossóis de sal marinho, 13% de poeira mineral, 17% de atividade biogênica marinha e 34% de produtos da reatividade química na atmosfera. É observada uma leve redução nas concentrações de Mg2+ (-0,04 μg L-1 ano-1) e K+ (-0,01 μg L-1 ano-1), e mais forte para NO3- (-0,17 μg L-1 ano-1), no período 1909–2008. A média anual da acumulação líquida de neve foi 0,21 ± 0,04 m eq. H2O no período 1882–2008 sem apresentar tendência significante. A acumulação mostra alta correspondência com dados anuais de reanálise climática, com coeficiente de correlação cruzada de +0,42 (α < 0,05) para o período 1979–2008. / This dissertation investigates the ionic content record of the mount Johns ice core (79°55'28"S; 94°23'18"W) recovered from the West Antarctica, contributing to the spatial densification of glaciochemical information used in paleoclimatic studies. The concentrations of Na+ (16.6 ± 28.2 μg L-1), K+ (1.3 ± 3.7 μg L-1), Mg2+ (3.7 ± 3.7 μg L-1), Ca2+ (5.4 ± 3.4 μg L-1), Cl- (33.3 ± 43.7 μg L-1), SO42- (25.9 ± 17.7 μg L-1), NO3- (50.8 ± 18.5 μg L-1) e H3CSO3- (7.1 ± 5.4 μg L-1) were determined by ion chromatography on 2,164 samples for the period 1882–2008. The NO3- seasonal variability and, especially, of the nssSO42- in antiphase with the Na+, allowed the counting of annual cycles over the studied period. The identification of Krakatau (1883), Agung (1963) and Pinatubo / Hudson (1991) volcanic signals was used to determine reference horizons (absolute dating). Significant aerosols events were identified and grouped considering the ionic content, provenance and season of the year. The evaluation of the ions provenance and of the ionic balance points to ionic content origin: 36% come from sea salt aerosols, 13% from mineral dust, 17% originate from marine biogenic activity and 34% are chemical reactivity products in the atmosphere. It is observed a slight reduction in the Mg2+ (-0.04 μg L-1 y-1) and K+ (-0.01 μg L-1 y-1) concentrations, and stronger in the NO3- (-0.17 μg L-1 y-1), during the 1909–2008 period. The annual mean net accumulation rate averaged 0.21 ± 0.04 m w.e. y-1 in the period 1882–2008 did not show any significant trend and shows high correspondence with climatic reanalysis data in years with data overlap, with a cross-correlation coefficient of +0.42 (α < 0.05) for the period 1979–2008.

Esta dissertação investiga o registro de conteúdo iônico do testemunho de gelo monte Johns (79°55'28"S; 94°23'18"O) obtido na Antártica Ocidental, contribuindo para o adensamento espacial de informações glacioquímicas empregadas em estudos paleoclimáticos. As concentrações de Na+ (16,6 ± 28,2 μg L-1), K+ (1,3 ± 3,7 μg L-1), Mg2+ (3,7 ± 3,7 μg L-1), Ca2+ (5,4 ± 3,4 μg L-1), Cl- (33,3 ± 43,7 μg L-1), SO42- (25,9 ± 17,7 μg L-1), NO3- (50,8 ± 18,5 μg L-1) e H3CSO3- (7,1 ± 5,4 μg L-1) foram determinadas por cromatografia iônica em 2.164 amostras para o período 1882–2008. A variabilidade sazonal de NO3- e, especialmente do nssSO42-, em antifase com Na+, possibilitou a datação pela contagem de ciclos anuais ao longo do período estudado. A identificação dos sinais vulcânicos do Krakatoa (1883), Agung (1963) e Pinatubo/Hudson (1991) foi usada para determinar horizontes de referência (datação absoluta). Eventos de aporte significativo de aerossóis foram identificados e agrupados considerando o conteúdo iônico, proveniência e estação do ano. A avaliação da proveniência dos íons e do balanço iônico mostra a origem da carga iônica: 36% é oriunda de aerossóis de sal marinho, 13% de poeira mineral, 17% de atividade biogênica marinha e 34% de produtos da reatividade química na atmosfera. É observada uma leve redução nas concentrações de Mg2+ (-0,04 μg L-1 ano-1) e K+ (-0,01 μg L-1 ano-1), e mais forte para NO3- (-0,17 μg L-1 ano-1), no período 1909–2008. A média anual da acumulação líquida de neve foi 0,21 ± 0,04 m eq. H2O no período 1882–2008 sem apresentar tendência significante. A acumulação mostra alta correspondência com dados anuais de reanálise climática, com coeficiente de correlação cruzada de +0,42 (α < 0,05) para o período 1979–2008. / This dissertation investigates the ionic content record of the mount Johns ice core (79°55'28"S; 94°23'18"W) recovered from the West Antarctica, contributing to the spatial densification of glaciochemical information used in paleoclimatic studies. The concentrations of Na+ (16.6 ± 28.2 μg L-1), K+ (1.3 ± 3.7 μg L-1), Mg2+ (3.7 ± 3.7 μg L-1), Ca2+ (5.4 ± 3.4 μg L-1), Cl- (33.3 ± 43.7 μg L-1), SO42- (25.9 ± 17.7 μg L-1), NO3- (50.8 ± 18.5 μg L-1) e H3CSO3- (7.1 ± 5.4 μg L-1) were determined by ion chromatography on 2,164 samples for the period 1882–2008. The NO3- seasonal variability and, especially, of the nssSO42- in antiphase with the Na+, allowed the counting of annual cycles over the studied period. The identification of Krakatau (1883), Agung (1963) and Pinatubo / Hudson (1991) volcanic signals was used to determine reference horizons (absolute dating). Significant aerosols events were identified and grouped considering the ionic content, provenance and season of the year. The evaluation of the ions provenance and of the ionic balance points to ionic content origin: 36% come from sea salt aerosols, 13% from mineral dust, 17% originate from marine biogenic activity and 34% are chemical reactivity products in the atmosphere. It is observed a slight reduction in the Mg2+ (-0.04 μg L-1 y-1) and K+ (-0.01 μg L-1 y-1) concentrations, and stronger in the NO3- (-0.17 μg L-1 y-1), during the 1909–2008 period. The annual mean net accumulation rate averaged 0.21 ± 0.04 m w.e. y-1 in the period 1882–2008 did not show any significant trend and shows high correspondence with climatic reanalysis data in years with data overlap, with a cross-correlation coefficient of +0.42 (α < 0.05) for the period 1979–2008.

Esta dissertação investiga o registro de conteúdo iônico do testemunho de gelo monte Johns (79°55'28"S; 94°23'18"O) obtido na Antártica Ocidental, contribuindo para o adensamento espacial de informações glacioquímicas empregadas em estudos paleoclimáticos. As concentrações de Na+ (16,6 ± 28,2 μg L-1), K+ (1,3 ± 3,7 μg L-1), Mg2+ (3,7 ± 3,7 μg L-1), Ca2+ (5,4 ± 3,4 μg L-1), Cl- (33,3 ± 43,7 μg L-1), SO42- (25,9 ± 17,7 μg L-1), NO3- (50,8 ± 18,5 μg L-1) e H3CSO3- (7,1 ± 5,4 μg L-1) foram determinadas por cromatografia iônica em 2.164 amostras para o período 1882–2008. A variabilidade sazonal de NO3- e, especialmente do nssSO42-, em antifase com Na+, possibilitou a datação pela contagem de ciclos anuais ao longo do período estudado. A identificação dos sinais vulcânicos do Krakatoa (1883), Agung (1963) e Pinatubo/Hudson (1991) foi usada para determinar horizontes de referência (datação absoluta). Eventos de aporte significativo de aerossóis foram identificados e agrupados considerando o conteúdo iônico, proveniência e estação do ano. A avaliação da proveniência dos íons e do balanço iônico mostra a origem da carga iônica: 36% é oriunda de aerossóis de sal marinho, 13% de poeira mineral, 17% de atividade biogênica marinha e 34% de produtos da reatividade química na atmosfera. É observada uma leve redução nas concentrações de Mg2+ (-0,04 μg L-1 ano-1) e K+ (-0,01 μg L-1 ano-1), e mais forte para NO3- (-0,17 μg L-1 ano-1), no período 1909–2008. A média anual da acumulação líquida de neve foi 0,21 ± 0,04 m eq. H2O no período 1882–2008 sem apresentar tendência significante. A acumulação mostra alta correspondência com dados anuais de reanálise climática, com coeficiente de correlação cruzada de +0,42 (α < 0,05) para o período 1979–2008. / This dissertation investigates the ionic content record of the mount Johns ice core (79°55'28"S; 94°23'18"W) recovered from the West Antarctica, contributing to the spatial densification of glaciochemical information used in paleoclimatic studies. The concentrations of Na+ (16.6 ± 28.2 μg L-1), K+ (1.3 ± 3.7 μg L-1), Mg2+ (3.7 ± 3.7 μg L-1), Ca2+ (5.4 ± 3.4 μg L-1), Cl- (33.3 ± 43.7 μg L-1), SO42- (25.9 ± 17.7 μg L-1), NO3- (50.8 ± 18.5 μg L-1) e H3CSO3- (7.1 ± 5.4 μg L-1) were determined by ion chromatography on 2,164 samples for the period 1882–2008. The NO3- seasonal variability and, especially, of the nssSO42- in antiphase with the Na+, allowed the counting of annual cycles over the studied period. The identification of Krakatau (1883), Agung (1963) and Pinatubo / Hudson (1991) volcanic signals was used to determine reference horizons (absolute dating). Significant aerosols events were identified and grouped considering the ionic content, provenance and season of the year. The evaluation of the ions provenance and of the ionic balance points to ionic content origin: 36% come from sea salt aerosols, 13% from mineral dust, 17% originate from marine biogenic activity and 34% are chemical reactivity products in the atmosphere. It is observed a slight reduction in the Mg2+ (-0.04 μg L-1 y-1) and K+ (-0.01 μg L-1 y-1) concentrations, and stronger in the NO3- (-0.17 μg L-1 y-1), during the 1909–2008 period. The annual mean net accumulation rate averaged 0.21 ± 0.04 m w.e. y-1 in the period 1882–2008 did not show any significant trend and shows high correspondence with climatic reanalysis data in years with data overlap, with a cross-correlation coefficient of +0.42 (α < 0.05) for the period 1979–2008.

<p>Understanding climate-driven changes in global land-based ice volume is a critical component in our capability to predict how global sea level will rise as a consequence of the current human-driven climate change. At the last glacial maximum (LGM, which peaked around 20 ka), ephemeral ice sheets covered vast regions of the northern hemisphere while both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets were more extensive than at present. As global temperatures rose at the transition into the Holocene, driving the LGM deglaciation, eustatic sea level rose by approximately 125 m. The east Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) is the largest ice sheet on Earth today, holding an ice volume equivalent to ca. 53 m rise in global sea level. Considering current trends in global climate, specifically rapidly increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels and global temperature, it is important to improve our understanding of how the EAIS will respond to global warming so that we can make better predictions of future sea level changes to guide community adaptation and planning efforts. Numerical ice sheet models which inform projections of future ice volume changes, and can, therefore, yield projections of sea level rise, rely on empirical data to test their ability to accurately represent former and present ice configurations. However, there is a general lack of data on the paleoglaciology of the EAIS along the western Dronning Maud Land (DML) margin. In order to address this situation, the paleoglaciology of western DML forms the focus of the work presented in this thesis.</p><p><b> </b></p><p>Together with collaborators within the MAGIC-DML consortium (Mapping, Measuring and Modelling Antarctic Geomorphology and Ice Change in Dronning Maud Land) that provides the funding for this MS project, the author has performed geomorphological mapping across western DML; an area of approximately 200,000 km². The results of the mapping presented in this thesis will provide the basis for a detailed glacial reconstruction of the region. The geomorphological mapping was completed almost entirely by remote sensing using very high-resolution (sub-meter in the panchromatic) WordView-2 and WorldView-3 (WV) satellite imagery, combined with ground validation studies during field work. Compared to Landsat products, the improved spatial resolution provided by WV imagery has fundamentally changed the scale and detail at which remote sensing based geomorphological mapping can be completed. The mapping presented here is focused on the glacial geomorphology of mountain summits and flanks that protrude through the ice sheet’s surface (nunataks). In our study area of western DML these nunatak surfaces make up <0.2 % of the total surface area, and the landforms mapped here are generally smaller than can be identified from Landsat products (30 m spatial resolution). The detail achieved in our mapping, across such a vast, remote area that presents numerous obstacles to accessibility highlights the benefits of utilizing the new VHR WV data. As such an evaluation of the WV data, as applied to geomorphological mapping is presented here together with our mapping of the glacial geomorphology of western DML. The results of which provides evidence of ice having overridden sites at all elevations across the entire study area; from the highest elevation inland nunataks that form the coast-parallel escarpment, to low-elevation emerging nunataks close to the coast. Hence from our studies of the glacial geomorphology of this region we can ascertain that, at some point in the glacial history of western DML, ice covered all of the mountain summits that are exposed today, indicating an ice sheet surface lowering of up to 700 m in some places.</p>

Recent progress in the modelling of the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet has led to a paradigm shift in the perception of the Antarctic ice sheet in a changing climate. New understanding of the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet now suggests that the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change will be driven by instability mechanisms in marine sectors. As concerns have grown about the response of the Antarctic ice sheet in a warming climate, interest has grown simultaneously in predicting with quantified uncertainty the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and in clarifying the role played by uncertainties in predicting the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change. Essential ice-sheet models have recently emerged as computationally efficient ice-sheet models for large-scale and long-term simulations of the ice-sheet dynamics and integration into Earth system models. Essential ice-sheet models, such as the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model developed at the Université Libre de Bruxelles, achieve computational tractability by representing essential mechanisms and feedbacks of ice-sheet thermodynamics through reduced-order models and appropriate parameterisations. Given their computational tractability, essential ice-sheet models combined with methods from the field of uncertainty quantification provide opportunities for more comprehensive analyses of the impact of uncertainty in ice-sheet models and for expanding the range of uncertainty quantification methods employed in ice-sheet modelling. The main contributions of this thesis are twofold. On the one hand, we contribute a new assessment and new understanding of the impact of uncertainties on the multicentennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet. On the other hand, we contribute new methods for uncertainty quantification of geometrical characteristics of the spatial response of physics-based computational models, with, as a motivation in glaciology, a focus on predicting with quantified uncertainty the retreat of the grounded region of the Antarctic ice sheet. For the first contribution, we carry out new probabilistic projections of the multicentennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change using the f.ETISh model. We apply methods from the field of uncertainty quantification to the f.ETISh model to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty, namely sources of uncertainty in atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology, and bedrock relation, on the continental response on the Antarctic ice sheet. We provide new probabilistic projections of the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to future sea-level rise; we carry out stochastic sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty; and we provide new probabilistic projections of the retreat of the grounded portion of the Antarctic ice sheet. For the second contribution, we propose to address uncertainty quantification of geometrical characteristics of the spatial response of physics-based computational models within the probabilistic context of the random set theory. We contribute to the development of the concept of confidence sets that either contain or are contained within an excursion set of the spatial response with a specified probability level. We propose a new multifidelity quantile-based method for the estimation of such confidence sets and we demonstrate the performance of the proposed method on an application concerned with predicting with quantified uncertainty the retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. In addition to these two main contributions, we contribute to two additional pieces of research pertaining to the computation of Sobol indices in global sensitivity analysis in small-data settings using the recently introduced probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) and to a multi-model comparison of the projections of the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea-level rise. / Les progrès récents effectués dans la modélisation de la dynamique de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique ont donné lieu à un changement de paradigme vis-à-vis de la perception de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique face au changement climatique. Une meilleure compréhension de la dynamique de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique suggère désormais que la réponse de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique au changement climatique sera déterminée par des mécanismes d'instabilité dans les régions marines. Tandis qu'un nouvel engouement se porte sur une meilleure compréhension de la réponse de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique au changement climatique, un intérêt particulier se porte simultanément vers le besoin de quantifier les incertitudes sur l'évolution de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique ainsi que de clarifier le rôle joué par les incertitudes sur le comportement de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique en réponse au changement climatique. D'un point de vue numérique, les modèles glaciologiques dits essentiels ont récemment été développés afin de fournir des modèles numériques efficaces en temps de calcul dans le but de réaliser des simulations à grande échelle et sur le long terme de la dynamique des calottes polaires ainsi que dans l'optique de coupler le comportement des calottes polaires avec des modèles globaux du sytème terrestre. L'efficacité en temps de calcul de ces modèles glaciologiques essentiels, tels que le modèle f.ETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet) développé à l'Université Libre de Bruxelles, repose sur une modélisation des mécanismes et des rétroactions essentiels gouvernant la thermodynamique des calottes polaires au travers de modèles d'ordre réduit et de paramétrisations. Vu l'efficacité en temps de calcul des modèles glaciologiques essentiels, l'utilisation de ces modèles en complément des méthodes du domaine de la quantification des incertitudes offrent de nombreuses opportunités afin de mener des analyses plus complètes de l'impact des incertitudes dans les modèles glaciologiques ainsi que de développer de nouvelles méthodes du domaine de la quantification des incertitudes dans le cadre de la modélisation glaciologique. Les contributions de cette thèse sont doubles. D'une part, nous contribuons à une nouvelle estimation et une nouvelle compréhension de l'impact des incertitudes sur la réponse de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique dans les prochains siècles. D'autre part, nous contribuons au développement de nouvelles méthodes pour la quantification des incertitudes sur les caractéristiques géométriques de la réponse spatiale de modèles physiques numériques avec, comme motivation en glaciologie, un intérêt particulier vers la prédiction sous incertitudes du retrait de la région de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique en contact avec le lit rocheux. Dans le cadre de la première contribution, nous réalisons de nouvelles projections probabilistes de la réponse de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique au changement climatique au cours des prochains siècles à l'aide du modèle numérique f.ETISh. Nous appliquons des méthodes du domaine de la quantification des incertitudes au modèle numérique f.ETISh afin d'étudier l'impact de différentes sources d'incertitude sur la réponse continentale de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique. Les sources d'incertitude étudiées sont relatives au forçage atmosphérique, au glissement basal, à la paramétrisation du flux à la ligne d'ancrage, au vêlage, à la fonte sous les barrières de glace, à la rhéologie des barrières de glace et à la relaxation du lit rocheux. Nous réalisons de nouvelles projections probabilistes de la contribution de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique à l'augmentation future du niveau des mers; nous réalisons une analyse de sensibilité afin de déterminer les sources d'incertitude les plus influentes; et nous réalisons de nouvelles projections probabilistes du retrait de la région de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique en contact avec le lit rocheux.Dans le cadre de la seconde contribution, nous étudions la quantification des incertitudes sur les caractéristiques géométriques de la réponse spatiale de modèles physiques numériques dans le cadre de la théorie des ensembles aléatoires. Dans le cadre de la théorie des ensembles aléatoires, nous développons le concept de régions de confiance qui contiennent ou bien sont inclus dans un ensemble d'excursion de la réponse spatiale du modèle numérique avec un niveau donné de probabilité. Afin d'estimer ces régions de confiance, nous proposons de formuler l'estimation de ces régions de confiance dans une famille d'ensembles paramétrés comme un problème d'estimation de quantiles d'une variable aléatoire et nous proposons une nouvelle méthode de type multifidélité pour estimer ces quantiles. Finalement, nous démontrons l'efficacité de cette nouvelle méthode dans le cadre d'une application relative au retrait de la région de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique en contact avec le lit rocheux. En plus de ces deux contributions principales, nous contribuons à deux travaux de recherche additionnels. D'une part, nous contribuons à un travail de recherche relatif au calcul des indices de Sobol en analyse de sensibilité dans le cadre de petits ensembles de données à l'aide d'une nouvelle méthode d'apprentissage probabiliste sur des variétés géométriques. D'autre part, nous fournissons une comparaison multimodèle de différentes projections de la contribution de la calotte polaire de l'Antarctique à l'augmentation du niveau des mers. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished