The increasing global air temperature will trigger changes in the global mean water vapor, precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration, which further leads to changes, for instance, instream flow, groundwater flow and soil moisture. Projections of future changes in thehydrological regime of the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB) in Central Asia are however highlyuncertain, due to complexities of natural and engineered water systems of the basin. The AmuDarya River Delta (ADRD) is vital to the water budget of the Large Aral Sea, the livelihood inUzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as well as the surrounding riparian ecosystem. This study attemptsto investigate responses of river flow in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin and key riparian vegetationspecies (of the so-called Tugai community) in the Amu Darya River Delta to projected futureclimate change. Results from hydrological model and outputs from multi-GCM predictions providea basis for conducting more robust quantitative analysis of possible future hydro-climatic changesin the Amu Darya River Basin. A qualitative synthesis of the suitability of Tugai is furthermoreperformed in order to increase the knowledge of the riparian vegetation status under thechanging hydro-climatic conditions. The results show that the averaged temperature in the ASDBis likely to continuously increase and yield a total increase of about 2 °C ~ 5°C by 2100. Thechange trend of the annual regional precipitation of 2100 is relatively unclear, with estimatesranging from 50 mm lower than today to 75 mm higher than today. Modeled ensemble means (EM)river flow, obtained from hydrological modeling of climate output from multi-GCM projections,converge on showing future decreases in river runoff (R). Projected absolute R may decrease tozero around 2100, implying no surface flow and a dry out near the river outlet. The relationship ofwater flux between upstream and downstream will be changed dramatically due to climatechange. More specifically, R of the upstream region will decrease, and it is likely to becomeinsufficient for feeding downstream river reaches as it used to. The decreased river flow in thedelta may accelerate the desertification and salinization processes. Consequently, speciestransitions may occur, along with degradations of the existing Tugai communities. Theuncertainties of hydro-climatic change projections to some extent hinder the understanding of thedynamic hydrological-climatic-ecological system. However, the detailed responses of the delta toclimate change based on multiple qualitative and quantitative analyses provide an important basisfor the formulation of more robust forecasts on the future ecological development in the ADRD, and further for recommendations of measures to mitigate the ecosystem’s deterioration under achanging climate.

abstract: This study performs numerical modeling for the climate of semi-arid regions by running a high-resolution atmospheric model constrained by large-scale climatic boundary conditions, a practice commonly called climate downscaling. These investigations focus especially on precipitation and temperature, quantities that are critical to life in semi-arid regions. Using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, a non-hydrostatic geophysical fluid dynamical model with a full suite of physical parameterization, a series of numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted to test how the intensity and spatial/temporal distribution of precipitation change with grid resolution, time step size, the resolution of lower boundary topography and surface characteristics. Two regions, Arizona in U.S. and Aral Sea region in Central Asia, are chosen as the test-beds for the numerical experiments: The former for its complex terrain and the latter for the dramatic man-made changes in its lower boundary conditions (the shrinkage of Aral Sea). Sensitivity tests show that the parameterization schemes for rainfall are not resolution-independent, thus a refinement of resolution is no guarantee of a better result. But, simulations (at all resolutions) do capture the inter-annual variability of rainfall over Arizona. Nevertheless, temperature is simulated more accurately with refinement in resolution. Results show that both seasonal mean rainfall and frequency of extreme rainfall events increase with resolution. For Aral Sea, sensitivity tests indicate that while the shrinkage of Aral Sea has a dramatic impact on the precipitation over the confine of (former) Aral Sea itself, its effect on the precipitation over greater Central Asia is not necessarily greater than the inter-annual variability induced by the lateral boundary conditions in the model and large scale warming in the region. The numerical simulations in the study are cross validated with observations to address the realism of the regional climate model. The findings of this sensitivity study are useful for water resource management in semi-arid regions. Such high spatio-temporal resolution gridded-data can be used as an input for hydrological models for regions such as Arizona with complex terrain and sparse observations. Results from simulations of Aral Sea region are expected to contribute to ecosystems management for Central Asia. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Aerospace Engineering 2012

<p>Water and vapour flows from land to sea and the atmosphere are important for water resources, coastal ecosystems and climate. This thesis investigates possible methods for modelling these flows under often encountered unmonitored hydrological conditions and data limitations. Two contrasting types of drainage basin and associated data limitation/availability cases are considered: the Swedish unmonitored near-coastal catchment areas Forsmark and Simpevarp, for which detailed spatial but not much temporal variability data is available; and the much larger Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB), for which spatial hydrological information is limited, while there is relatively well-known temporal change occurring in the Aral Sea itself and in the land and water use of the region over the last 50 years.</p><p>The hydrologic modelling for the Forsmark and Simpevarp catchment areas showed that the relatively large focused stream flows, and the mean values and total sums of the diffuse small stream-groundwater flow fields in between the large stream flows from land to sea are largely constrained by the catchment hydrological balances and relatively robust and certain to estimate. The ASDB hydrologic modelling indicated an evapotranspiration return flow to the atmosphere from the irrigation water input on irrigated land that is much higher than previous estimates in atmospheric modelling, implying possible considerably larger than previously estimated non-local water and climate effects of the world’s irrigated areas. The more detailed groundwater-seawater dynamics modelling carried out for the coastal parts of the ASDB showed that regional topography and bathymetry largely influence coastal water fluxes during sea level lowering, with the Aral Sea shrinkage decreasing the seawater intrusion risk into the coastal groundwater considerably more for steeper than for flatter coastal topography parts of the region.</p>

Water and vapour flows from land to sea and the atmosphere are important for water resources, coastal ecosystems and climate. This thesis investigates possible methods for modelling these flows under often encountered unmonitored hydrological conditions and data limitations. Two contrasting types of drainage basin and associated data limitation/availability cases are considered: the Swedish unmonitored near-coastal catchment areas Forsmark and Simpevarp, for which detailed spatial but not much temporal variability data is available; and the much larger Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB), for which spatial hydrological information is limited, while there is relatively well-known temporal change occurring in the Aral Sea itself and in the land and water use of the region over the last 50 years. The hydrologic modelling for the Forsmark and Simpevarp catchment areas showed that the relatively large focused stream flows, and the mean values and total sums of the diffuse small stream-groundwater flow fields in between the large stream flows from land to sea are largely constrained by the catchment hydrological balances and relatively robust and certain to estimate. The ASDB hydrologic modelling indicated an evapotranspiration return flow to the atmosphere from the irrigation water input on irrigated land that is much higher than previous estimates in atmospheric modelling, implying possible considerably larger than previously estimated non-local water and climate effects of the world’s irrigated areas. The more detailed groundwater-seawater dynamics modelling carried out for the coastal parts of the ASDB showed that regional topography and bathymetry largely influence coastal water fluxes during sea level lowering, with the Aral Sea shrinkage decreasing the seawater intrusion risk into the coastal groundwater considerably more for steeper than for flatter coastal topography parts of the region.

The intracontinental endorheic Aral Sea, remote from oceanic influences, represents an excellent sedimentary archive in Central Asia that can be used for high-resolution palaeoclimate studies. We performed palynological, microfacies and geochemical analyses on sediment cores retrieved from Chernyshov Bay, in the NW part of the modern Large Aral Sea. The most complete sedimentary sequence, whose total length is 11 m, covers approximately the past 2000 years of the late Holocene. High-resolution palynological analyses, conducted on both dinoflagellate cysts assemblages and pollen grains, evidenced prominent environmental change in the Aral Sea and in the catchment area. The diversity and the distribution of dinoflagellate cysts within the assemblages characterized the sequence of salinity and lake-level changes during the past 2000 years. Due to the strong dependence of the Aral Sea hydrology to inputs from its tributaries, the lake levels are ultimately linked to fluctuations in meltwater discharges during spring. As the amplitude of glacial meltwater inputs is largely controlled by temperature variations in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains during the melting season, salinity and lake-level changes of the Aral Sea reflect temperature fluctuations in the high catchment area during the past 2000 years. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages document lake lowstands and hypersaline conditions during ca. 0–425 AD, 920–1230 AD, 1500 AD, 1600–1650 AD, 1800 AD and since the 1960s, whereas oligosaline conditions and higher lake levels prevailed during the intervening periods. Besides, reworked dinoflagellate cysts from Palaeogene and Neogene deposits happened to be a valuable proxy for extreme sheet-wash events, when precipitation is enhanced over the Aral Sea Basin as during 1230–1450 AD. We propose that the recorded environmental changes are related primarily to climate, but may have been possibly amplified during extreme conditions by human-controlled irrigation activities or military conflicts. Additionally, salinity levels and variations in solar activity show striking similarities over the past millennium, as during 1000–1300 AD, 1450–1550 and 1600–1700 AD when low lake levels match well with an increase in solar activity thus suggesting that an increase in the net radiative forcing reinforced past Aral Sea’s regressions. On the other hand, we used pollen analyses to quantify changes in moisture conditions in the Aral Sea Basin. High-resolution reconstruction of precipitation (mean annual) and temperature (mean annual, coldest versus warmest month) parameters are performed using the “probability mutual climatic spheres” method, providing the sequence of climate change for the past 2000 years in western Central Asia. Cold and arid conditions prevailed during ca. 0–400 AD, 900–1150 AD and 1500–1650 AD with the extension of xeric vegetation dominated by steppe elements. Conversely, warmer and less arid conditions occurred during ca. 400–900 AD and 1150–1450 AD, where steppe vegetation was enriched in plants requiring moister conditions. Change in the precipitation pattern over the Aral Sea Basin is shown to be predominantly controlled by the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) cyclonic system, which provides humidity to the Middle East and western Central Asia during winter and early spring. As the EM is significantly regulated by pressure modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the system is in a negative phase, a relationship between humidity over western Central Asia and the NAO is proposed. Besides, laminated sediments record shifts in sedimentary processes during the late Holocene that reflect pronounced changes in taphonomic dynamics. In Central Asia, the frequency of dust storms occurring during spring when the continent is heating up is mostly controlled by the intensity and the position of the Siberian High (SH) Pressure System. Using titanium (Ti) content in laminated sediments as a proxy for aeolian detrital inputs, changes in wind dynamics over Central Asia is documented for the past 1500 years, offering the longest reconstruction of SH variability to date. Based on high Ti content, stronger wind dynamics are reported from 450–700 AD, 1210–1265 AD, 1350–1750 AD and 1800–1975 AD, reporting a stronger SH during spring. In contrast, lower Ti content from 1750–1800 AD and 1980–1985 AD reflect a diminished influence of the SH and a reduced atmospheric circulation. During 1180–1210 AD and 1265–1310 AD, considerably weakened atmospheric circulation is evidenced. As a whole, though climate dynamics controlled environmental changes and ultimately modulated changes in the western Central Asia’s climate system, it is likely that changes in solar activity also had an impact by influencing to some extent the Aral Sea’s hydrology balance and also regional temperature patterns in the past. <hr> The appendix of the thesis is provided via the HTML document as ZIP download. / Der Aralsee ist ein intrakontinental gelegenes endorheisches Gewässer fernab von ozeanischen Einflüssen, welches ein exzellentes sedimentäres Archiv für hochauflösende Paläoklimastudien in Zentralasien darstellt. In der vorliegenden Studie wurden umfangreiche palynologische, mikrofazielle und geochemische Analysen anhand von mehreren Bohrkernen aus der Chernyshov-Bucht im NW des heutigen Großen Aralsees durchgeführt. Die vollständigste der erbohrten Sequenzen weist dabei eine Länge von 11 m auf und beinhaltet näherungsweise die letzten 2000 Jahre des Holozän. Die hochauflösenden palynologischen Analysen der Studie, welche sowohl die Untersuchung von Dinoflagellatenzysten als auch Pollen beinhaltet, zeugen von einschneidenden Umweltveränderungen im Aralsee und seinem Einzugsgebiet. Die Untersuchung von Diversität und räumlicher Verbreitung der fossilen Dinoflagellatenzysten vermittelt dabei ein genaues Bild von den Salinitäts- und Seespiegeländerungen der letzten 2000 Jahre. Aufgrund der weitgehenden Abhängigkeit der hydrologischen Verhältnisse des Aralsees von der Wasserführung seinen tributären Flüsse, hängt sein Seespiegel unmittelbar von den Schmelzwasserzuflüssen im Frühjahr ab. Da der Schmelzwasserzufluss seinerseits mit den Temperaturveränderungen im Tien Shan und Pamir während der Schneeschmelze in Verbindung steht, spiegeln die Paläo-Salinität und der Paläo-Seespiegel des Aralsees folglich die Temperaturveränderungen im hochgelegenen Einzugsgebiet des Aralsees wider. Die Untersuchung der fossilen Dinoflagellatenzysten belegt besonders niedrige Seestände und hypersaline Bedingungen während der Perioden 0–425 AD, 920–1230 AD, 1500 AD, 1600 AD, 1800 AD und seit 1960, wohingegen oligohaline Bedingungen und höhere Seestände zwischen diesen Phasen dokumentiert sind. Ferner stellen umgelagerte Dinoflagellatenzysten aus Paläogenen und Neogenen Ablagerungen wertvolle Proxies für den Beleg von extremen Flächenspülereignissen dar, wie sie beispielsweise 1230–1450 AD aufgetreten und durch sehr hohe Niederschläge dokumentiert sind. Anhand der in der Studie erarbeiteten Daten ist davon auszugehen, dass die am Aralsee nachgewiesenen Umweltveränderungen im Wesentlichen von klimatischen Änderungen induziert wurden, durch historischen Bewässerungsfeldbau oder militärischen Konflikten jedoch noch verstärkt werden konnten. Darüber hinaus zeigen die Seestandsveränderungen eine sehr hohe Korrelation mit der Sonnenaktivität im letzten Jahrtausend, wie etwa während den Perioden 1000–1300 AD, 1450–1550 und 1600–1700 AD. Komplementär zu der Untersuchung von Dinoflagellatenzysten liefert die Pollenanalyse wertvolle Klimadaten für das Becken des Aralsees. Verschiedene Temperatur- (Jahresmittel, kältester gegen wärmster Monat) und Niederschlagsparameter wurden mit Hilfe der Methode der „probability mutual climatic spheres“ quantitative ausgewertet, womit die Klimaentwicklung im westlichen Zentralasien der letzten 2000 Jahre nachvollzogen werden konnte. Kalte und aride Bedingungen wiesen demnach die durch trockenangepasste Vegetation und Steppenelementen geprägten Perioden 0–400 AD, 900–1150 AD und 1500–1650 AD auf. Andererseits traten warme und weniger aride Klimabedingungen in den durch niederschlagsbedürftigere Pflanzen gekennzeichneten Zeiträumen 400–900 AD and 1150–1450 AD in den Vordergrund. Die Studie zeigt für das Becken des Aralsees, dass die Veränderungen im Niederschlagsmuster hauptsächlich vom zyklonalen System des östlichen Mittelmeergebietes (EM) gesteuert werden, welches den nahen Osten und das westliche Zentralasien mit Feuchtigkeit im Winter und Frühjahr versorgt. Da seinerseits das EM maßgeblich von Luftdruckänderungen der Nordatlantischen Oszillation (NAO) während seiner negativen Phase reguliert wird, ist ein Zusammenhang zwischen der Feuchtigkeit im westlichen Zentralasien und dem NAO anzunehmen. Außerdem belegen die laminierten Sedimente Veränderungen in den Sedimentationsprozessen während des späten Holozän, sowie ausgeprägte Änderungen im taphonomischen Verhalten. In Zentralasien hängt die Häufigkeit der im Frühjahr auftretenden Staubstürme hauptsächlich von der Intensität und der Position des Sibirienhochs (SH) ab. Der Gehalt an Titanium (Ti) als Proxy für äolischen Eintrag in den laminierten Sedimenten erlaubt die Rekonstruktion von winddynamischen Veränderungen in Zentralasien in den letzten 1500 Jahren. Die Studie beinhaltet daher die bislang längste Analyse der Variabilität des SH. Hohe Titaniumwerte sprechen für eine stärkere Winddynamik während den Perioden 450–700 AD, 1210–1265 AD, 1350–1750 AD und 1800–1975 AD, und dokumentieren demzufolge eine stärker ausgeprägtes SH während des Frühjahrs. Umgekehrt belegen geringe Titaniumwerte für die Zeit von 1180–1210 AD, 1265–1310 AD, 1750–1800 AD und 1980–1985 AD einen reduzierten Einfluss des SH.

二十一世紀，水資源問題已經成為國際社會共同關注的焦點。它不僅關係到地球生態系統的維繫和人類社會的可持續發展，還對當代國際關係產生廣泛深遠的影響。尤其是水資源匱乏地區，水資源問題已成為影響該地區國家間關係的重要因素，甚至對地區的和平與發展穩定構成威脅。 受地理因素影響，中亞地區的水資源多為跨境水體，造成了該地區水資源開發主體的多樣性。各國對水資源長期不合理的開發利用，產生了一系列的浪費及污染問題，引發了許多國際爭端。為此，中亞各國簽訂一系列雙邊、多邊協議，試圖通過國際合作來解決跨境水資源問題，然而卻無法形成一個長期有效的合作機制。圍繞國際水資源的利用、開發、管理而產生的爭端依然困擾著中亞。 本文首先是闡述中亞水資源概況及開發歷程，探索中亞水資源問題產生的根源。其次，從中亞各國之間採取的政策互動入手，分析探討中亞在國際水資源開發中的「合作困境」。最後借鑒國際跨境水資源利用現狀與趨勢，分析構建有助於目標實現的制度安排，從而提出中亞國際水資源合作的解決途徑。通過構建切實發揮效能的區域水資源合作機制，推動中亞各國內部實現更好發展，同時促進整個中亞及鄰國、周邊地區的穩定發展。 / In the 21st century, the issue of water resources has become the focus of common concern of the international community. It is not only related to the maintenance of the earth's ecosystem and the sustainable development of human society, but also has a far-reaching impact on contemporary international relations. Especially in water-scarce areas, water resources has become an important factor affecting relations among countries in the region, and even poses a threat to regional peace and development and stability. Due to geographical factors, water resources in Central Asia are mostly transboundary water bodies, resulting in the diversification of water resources development in the region. The unreasonable exploitation and utilization of water resources in a long period of time has brought about a series of waste and pollution problems, which has caused many international disputes. To this end, the Central Asian countries signed a series of bilateral and multilateral agreements, trying to solve international water resources through cross-border issues, but can not form a long-term effective cooperation mechanism. Disputes over the use, development and management of international water resources continue to haunt Central Asia. This paper firstly elaborates the general situation and development process of water resources in Central Asia, and explores the root causes of water resources problems in Central Asia. Secondly, this paper analyzes the interaction dilemma of Central Asia in international water resources development from the policy interaction among the countries of Central Asia. Finally, it draws lessons from the current situation and trend of international transboundary water resources utilization, analyzes and constructs the institutional arrangements that will help the target to achieve, and then proposes the solutions to the international water resources cooperation in Central Asia. Through the construction of effective regional water resources cooperation mechanism, it can promote better development within the Central Asian countries, and stimulate the stable development of the whole Central Asia, the neighboring countries and even the surrounding areas.

Changes in land use and water use can greatly impact the cycling of water and water-borne substances. Increased redistribution of river water to irrigated fields can cause enhanced evapotranspiration and decreased river discharge. Additionally, the water quality can be affected by the external input of fertilisers and pesticides, and by changed pollutant transport pathways in expansive irrigation canal systems. This thesis examines basin-scale changes in water use, river discharge, water quality and nitrogen (N) loading under conditions of intensified irrigated agriculture, using the Aral Sea drainage basin (ASDB) with its two large rivers Syr Darya and Amu Darya in Central Asia as study area. Results show that more efficient irrigation techniques could reduce outtake of river water to the cotton fields in the ASDB by about 10 km3/year, while the corresponding river water saving at the outlet would be 60% lower. The result illustrates the importance of accounting for return flows of irrigation water in basin-scale water saving assessments. Moreover, a decrease in riverine N concentrations at the outlet of the Amu Darya River Basin (ADRB) was observed during a 40-year period of increasing N fertiliser input. The decrease was identified to be primarily caused by increased recirculation of river water in the irrigation system, leading to increased flow-path lengths and enhanced N attenuation. Decreasing N loads were shown to be primarily related to reduced discharge. N export from the basin may further decrease due to projected discharge reductions related to climate change. Furthermore, nutrients and metals were occasionally found at concentrations above drinking water guideline values in surface waters in the ADRB. However, metal concentrations in groundwater in the lower ADRB were subject to orders of magnitude higher health hazards. Projected decrease in downstream surface water availability would thus imply decreased access to water suitable for drinking. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Submitted. Paper 5: Manuscript.</p>