[pt] Nesta de tese de doutorado é proposta uma metodologia alternativa para obter estratégias ótimas de oferta sob incerteza que maximizam o lucro de um agente em mercados dotados de um leilão de preço uniforme e envelope fechado com multiplos produtos divisíveis. A estratégia ótima de um agente price maker depende amplamente da informação conhecida dos agentes rivais. Reconhecendo que a oferta dos agentes rivais pode desviar do equilíbrio de mercado e é de difícil caracterização probabilística, nós propomos um modelo de otimização robusta dois estágios com restrições de equilíbrio para obter estratégias de oferta ótimas avessas a risco. O modelo proposto é um modelo de otimização de três níveis passível de ser reescrito como uma instância particular de um programa binível com restrições de equilíbrio. Um conjunto de procedimentos é proposto a fim de construir uma formulação equivalente de de nível único adequado para aplicação de algoritmos de Geração de Coluna e Restrição (GCC). Diferentemente de trabalhos publicados anteriormente em modelos de otimização dois estágios, nossa metodologia de solução não aplica o método de GCC para iterativamente identificar os cenários mais violados dos fatores de incerteza, variáveis que são identificadas através de variáveis contínuas. Na metodologia de solução proposta, o algoritmo GCC é aplicado para identificar um pequeno subconjunto de condições de otimalidade para o modelo de terceiro nível capaz de representar as restrições de equilíbrio do leilão na solução ótima do problema master (problema de oferta). Um estudo de caso numérico baseado em mercados de energia de curto prazo é apresentado para ilustrar a aplicabilidade do modelo robusto proposto. Resultados indicam que mesmo em um caso em que é observada uma imprecisão de 1 porcento na oferta de equilíbrio de Nash dos agentes rivais, a solução robusta provê uma redução significativa de risco em uma análise fora da amostra. / [en] We propose an alternative methodology to devise profit-maximizing strategic bids under uncertainty in markets endowed with a sealed-bid uniformprice auction with multiple divisible products. The optimal strategic bid of a price maker agent largely depends on the knowledge (information) of the rivals bidding strategy. By recognizing that the bid of rival competitors may deviate from the equilibrium and are of difficult probabilistic characterization, we proposed a two-stage robust optimization model with equilibrium constraints to devise an risk-averse strategic bid in the auction. The proposed model is a trilevel optimization problem that can be recast as a particular instance of a bilevel program with equilibrium constraints. Reformulation procedures are proposed to construct a single-level-equivalent formulation suitable for column and constraint generation (CCG) algorithm. Differently from previously reported works on two-stage robust optimization, our solution methodology does not employ the CCG algorithm to iteratively identify violated scenarios for the uncertain factors, which in this thesis are obtained through continuous variables. In the proposed solution methodology, the CCG is applied to identify a small subset of optimality conditions for the third-level model capable of representing the auction equilibrium constraints at the optimum solution of the master (bidding) problem. A numerical case study based on short-term electricity markets is presented to illustrate the applicability of the proposed robust model. Results show that even for the case where an impression of 1 percent on the rivals offer at the Nash equilibrium is observed, the robust solution provides a non-negligible risk reduction in out-of-sample analysis.

近年來，網際網路(Internet)快速發展，已成為一個無疆無界無時差的市場，如何不被這股潮流所淘汰，我們所提出的解決方案—軟體代理人(software agent)，一位具有人工智慧(artificial intelligence)演化調適(adaptive)能力的代理人，現在已經有許多企業與資訊、管理、電腦科學等各方面專家結合，開始使用軟體代理人來代勞，試想一位永不停止、具有創新、學習適應的員工，企業家可以隨意複製或刪除，隨時配合市場規模，不必擔心任何裁員的負擔，這樣的代理人的問世，勢必對我們的經濟環境帶來莫大的衝擊。 電子商務(electronic commerce)已經行之有年，人類的消費型態似乎不易於因這個轉變而有所改變，消費者如果沒有經過視覺、觸覺、嗅覺等感官的刺激，很難有購買的動機，再加上授信制度的不健全使得電子商務的施行充滿了風險。雖然有這麼多問題，我們仍無法阻擋這股趨勢，在電子科技的進步，3D數位影像、各種感官刺激的傳送、或如同期貨市場上明確公認的規格、法律的修訂、完善的認證制度，接下來我們就是要看軟體代理人的表現。 我們將軟體代理人運用在人工雙方喊價(artificial double auction)的市場，就像真實市場已經有人開始使用自動下單或自動議價代理人的機制一樣。然而市場上是否有必然不敗的策略呢？本文就是要解開這個答案。再進一步來看，待真實市場每個成員受不了生存競爭的壓力，也採取使用代理人的演化性策略，屆時我們的人工市場就是真實市場的縮影，我們在本文也會針對這樣一個具有未來前瞻性市場的表現如何？透過經濟學的角度來揭露市場的本質是否仍然維持？ 在本文軟體代理人即為議價代理人(bargaining agent)，她可以在穩定的(stable)市場環境(其他參與者使用固定策略)中辨別出一些有利的市場特徵，藉由這些特徵發展出有利的策略，而其結果甚至不是很容易想到的策略；接著若每個人都使用議價代理人在市場上交易，這裡我們使用一種納許式過程(Nash-like process)來詮釋，之後再分別依市場的分配效率、價格效率、及所得分配來討論市場績效。

台灣祭祀公業為民間祭祀團體係特殊民間傳統習慣所形成，其特殊性為「共有」型態，以祭祀祖先為目的所設立之獨立財產。其設置，淵源於中國大陸南宋「祭田」經先民為維護人民本身之生存之安全，勢必組織團體，藉以互助及自衛，依賴宗族組織逐漸形成台灣之特殊制度。本文研究是以祭祀公業條例第五十一條及相關第五十四條、第五十五條「代為標售」政府以公權力介入剝奪民間之祭祀公業財產，限定三年內申報清理，逾期申報由直轄市、縣(市)主管機關代為標售，此種化私產為公產(囑託登記為國有)剝奪人民財產權是否有違反憲法第十五條及第二十三條之必要性原則應予探討。又祭祀公業條例第五十九條第一項規定應以「祭祀公業法人為新設立之特殊性質法人，而非依民法成立社團法人或財團法人為新設立。」立法要求祭祀公業成立「祭祀公業法人」為權利義務主體具有人格化，管理重於清理，應予探討研究。 「祭祀公業」以頒布祭祀公業條例予以清理，在民政機關(單位)應予嚴格審查核發派下全員證明書，以利祭祀公業登記為「祭祀公業法人」或「個別所有」、「持分共有」或「均分」所有，以利管理。因此對祭祀公業之派下員清理，宜予慎重探討。其頒指出祭祀公業條例實施後問題所在，能對過去到現在清理祭祀公業之政策困難「盲點」於處理原則及法令修定時予以參考。 本論文共分五章其主要內容說明如下： 第一章 緒論：說明研究動機與目的，研究方法與範圍，研究內容與流程。第二章 祭祀公業法性質定為之探討：祭祀公業的涵義，就有關文獻，藉著祭祀公業定義、分類、沿革及法律本質之定位問題予論述，日治時期之定位及分析祭祀公業法律性質之定位與釐清學說與實務不同見解，針對祭祀公業法人之特殊性，具有「人格」為權利義務主體，期望祭祀公業條例實施後，有利於政府管理祭祀公業。 第三章 祭祀公業條例公佈實施前土地清理之探討：論述台灣光復初期地籍失實之原因，祭祀公業法制承接之改變，使法律本質定位在「習慣上法人」國民政府播遷來台影響，秉持大陸之見解認定祭祀公業為「公同共有」之性質，以致清理發生困難，政府放任祭祀公業不立法保護，法令闕如，以致祭祀公業纏訟爭財，政府對祭祀公業土地清理法令何在？雖然內政部於七十年四月三日頒布「祭祀公業土地清理要點」二十六點，積極清理，以便管理，隨後台灣省政府頒布「台灣省祭祀公業土地清理辦法」一十九條，因法律位階為法令，又缺少公權力，以致效果不彰，推原其故，詳述問題所在，以訂立新法為法律，而有土地清理相關規定問題，提出祭祀公業管理條例草案及地籍清理條例草案為立法解決祭祀公業土地清理問題。 第四章 祭祀公業條例公佈實施後土地清理之探討：祭祀公業條例公佈實施前所發生問題是否解決？困難問題未能解決，政府為解決立法授權行政主管機關，以公共利益為考慮，予以代為標售為徹底解決主體不明，權屬不清，無法藉司法途徑解決之祭祀公業，如此見解是否剝奪民間習慣形成之祭祀公業，以公益剝奪私益，有違反憲法第十五條及第二十三條人民財產權之保障，闡述祭祀公業法人登記之分析，祭祀公業第五十九條第一項所規定新設立祭祀公業已民法規定社團法人或財團法人為之。闡述祭祀公業法人為特別性質之法人，為祭祀公業條例公佈實施之特色，今新設立祭祀公業應以登記為祭祀公業法人為之，為正確；對於祭祀公業土地清理，應以民政機關核發派下全員證明書為地政機關登記之憑證，故祭祀公業在申請民政機關核發派下全員證明書審核時與以對其派下員清理。 第五章 結論與建議，一、結論：(一)祭祀公業派下員之清理，如何認定派下權，以杜絕糾紛，授權民政機關核發派下全員證明書協助祭祀公業派下權責任重大。期望未來修法時，在實體對派下權繼承取得或喪失及範圍作明確之規範。(二)祭祀公業法人登記之分析，將祭祀公業法人登記規範二十四項，予以歸納分析其程序及應附文件。於清理完畢，予以管理。祭祀公業條例第五十九條第一項新設立祭祀公業，依民法規定成立社團法人或財團法人。祭祀公業條例忽略法人化，特別規定特殊性質法人為權利義務主體，有別於社團法人或財團法人。因此本研究認為新設立祭祀公業應以成立登記祭祀公業法人為之，符合特殊性質法人說之立論。(三)逾期未申報清理，代為標售分析，政府(行政主管機關)為全面清理祭祀公業，竟然立法祭祀公業條例第五十一條及相關第五十四條、第五十五條規定，將土地二次標售，未完成標售者，囑託地政機關登記為「國有」，增加政府國有土地之資源。又於代為標售之價金及登記為國有之土地價金，期限十年，祭祀公業逾期未申請發給土地價金結算如有賸餘歸入「國庫」。此種土地政策公益大於私益，嚴重剝奪祭祀公業之財產，以公權力介入代為標售違反憲法第十五條及第二十三條之必要性原則及比例原則之違憲行為，剝奪人民之財產權，詳盡論述。二、建議：祭祀公業條例施行後，實務上之運作，對祭祀公業申報清理作業，仍有處分實務與法令盲點存在，建議將來為修法之參考：(一)祭祀公業條例第五條之修正為「一、……其繼承人應與該公業設立人或派下同姓且有共同分擔祭祀者，使符列為派下員。」(二)祭祀公業條例第五十條第一項：「……應於三年內依下列方式之一處理其土地及建物」之「之一」兩字應予刪除。(三)祭祀公業條例第五十條第三項建議修正。(四)祭祀公業條例第五十一條，直轄市、縣(市)主管機關代為標售之規定，有違背憲法第十五條及第二十五條對財產權保障及比例原則，於修法時建議刪除或修改條文。(五)祭祀公業條例第十二條欠缺移請直轄市、縣(市)政府調處機制，建議修法時予以增加，以利清理工作之運作。 / Abstract Worship guilds in Taiwan are civil worship associations formed due to special tradition and custom. Its unique characteristic is the “co-ownership” of the independent properties set up for worshiping ancestors. It originated from the “sacrificial field” in the Southern Song Dynasty. Due to the need of defending their safety and survival, ancient people organized themselves to help each other and ensure self-defense. Clan organizations have been evolved and developed into a system unique to Taiwan. This research discusses whether the government’s conversion of private properties into state-owned properties (inform the registration of properties as state-owned) and deprivation of people’s right to property are in violation of Articles 15 and 23 of the Constitution, that is, the government deprives properties owned by civil worship guilds by exercising its public powers to require them to declare and clear their properties for ancestor worship within three years, and in the event that a worship guild fails to make the required declaration, the municipal city, county (city) government will publicly auction the properties in question on behalf of the worship guild according to Articles 51 and 54 as well as the “Public auction on behalf of worship guild “ stipulated in Article 55 of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds. In addition, Paragraph 1 of Article 59 of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds stipulates that “a worship guild constituted as a juristic person is a new form of juristic person with unique characteristics which differs from an association constituted as a juristic person or a foundation constituted as a juristic person as per the Civil Code.” The legislation requires a worship guild to form a “worship guild constituted as a juristic person” which has legal personality capable of exercising rights and bearing responsibilities. The fact that management takes precedence over clearance should be discussed and researched. The promulgation of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds is to regulate “worship guilds.” Civil affairs authorities strictly review and issue the full membership (including the founding members and, if any, their successors) certificate of a worship guild to allow it being registered as a “worship guild constituted as a juristic person”, “individual ownership”, “co-ownership of respective shares” or “co-ownership of equal shares” for the purpose of management. As a result, it is important to undertake sensible discussions on the listing of worship guilds’ membership. This research is intended to point out problems arising from the implementation of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds and the policy “blind spots” associated with the regulation of worship guilds from the very beginning until now which are subsequently served as references for the principles of handling and future amendment to the applicable laws and regulations. This research is divided into five chapters and their key contents are listed below: Chapter one is the introduction which explains the research motive and objective, research methods and scope as well as research contents and procedures. Chapter Two discusses the positioning of worship guilds’ legal nature. In terms of the context of worship guilds, the definition, categorization, history and the positioning of the legal nature of worship guilds are expounded according to relevant literatures. Their positioning in the era under the Japanese colonial rule is also explored. The legal nature of worship guilds is analyzed and the clarification of the different interpretations between academic theories and practical experiences is made. Regarding the uniqueness of worship guilds as juristic persons, their acquisition of “personality” capable of exercising rights and bearing responsibilities after the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds took effect will hopefully facilitate the government’s management of worship guilds. Chapter Three concentrates on land clearance before the promulgation and implementation of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds which discusses the reasons behind the incorrect cadasters immediately after the end of the Japanese occupation and the change of the legal system governing worship guilds. Worship guilds which had originally been regarded as “customary juristic persons” in their legal nature were deemed as “co-ownership in common” under the Mainland concept by the Nationalist government after its retreat to Taiwan. This led to great difficulties to regulate. The government’s failure to enact applicable laws to protect the interest of worship guilds created a legislative vacuum, causing numerous litigations for properties by worship guilds. Where the land clearance legislations as far as worship guilds are concerned? Although the Ministry of the Interior promulgated the “Arrangement Regulations for Worship Assets” with 26 regulations on April 3, 1981 to actively undertake clearance to facilitate management, followed by the “Regulations Governing Land Clearance by Worship Guilds of Taiwan Province” composed of 19 articles which were promulgated by the Taiwan Provincial Government, these points and regulations were inferior in their legal status and lacked enforcement powers, leading to ineffective and unsatisfactory results. The causes for their failure and problems needed to be addressed by the enactment of a new legislation. Accordingly, drafts of both the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds and the Statutes Governing Cadaster Clearance were proposed to resolve issues concerning land clearance by worship guilds. Chapter Four discusses land clearance after the implementation of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds. Attentions are drawn to whether the problems which had occurred before the effectiveness of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds are resolved? In order to deal with the un-resolved problems, the government has enacted the law to authorize the competent authority, in consideration of public interest, to undertake public auctions on behalf of worship guilds aimed at completely resolving issues surrounding ownership and rights or cases of worship guilds which cannot be resolved by the judicial system. Whether this idea exploits worship guilds which were formed by way of civil custom, amounts to the deprivation of private interest by public interest, and violates the constitutional guarantee of people’s rights to property as per Articles 15 and 23 of the Constitution requires further discussions. The registration of worship guilds constituted as juristic persons is analyzed as a newly established worship guild is required to be established as an association constituted as a juristic person or a foundation constituted as a juristic person as per the Civil Code under Paragraph 1 of Article 59 of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds. It is also emphasized that worship guilds constituted as juristic persons are unique juristic persons which is a feature of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds. It is a correct policy to require any newly established worship guild to be registered as a worship guild constituted as a juristic person. With respect of land clearance by worship guilds, civil affairs authorities should issue full membership certificates as a reference for land registration authorities to undertake land registration. Therefore, worship guilds can ascertain their full membership when applying to civil affairs authorities for membership certificates. Chapter Five is conclusions and suggestions. I. Conclusions: (1) Regarding the ascertaining of membership of worship guilds, it is important to ascertain the right of the membership to prevent future disputes. Civil affair authorities’ power to issue full membership certificates bears great responsibilities in assisting the establishment of the right of the membership of worship guilds. It is hoped that future amendment will be made to the acquisition by succession, loss and scope of the right of the membership. (2) In respect of the analysis of the registration of worship guilds constituted as juristic persons, the procedures and attached documents required by the 24 regulations governing the registration of worship guilds constituted as juristic persons should be analyzed. After the analysis is done, the procedures and attached documents should be managed accordingly. According to Paragraph 1 of Article 59 of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds, a newly established worship guild is required to be established as an association constituted as a juristic person or a foundation constituted as a juristic person in accordance with the Civil Code. The Statutes Governing Worship Guilds ignores legal personalization and specially provides that worship guilds are a special form of juristic persons which are different from associations or foundations constituted as juristic persons. Due to this, this research concludes that a newly established worship guild should be registered as a worship guild constituted as a juristic person in order to fit in its unique legal personality. (3) The failure to declare and clear worship properties leads to the government’s public auctions on behalf of worship guilds. In order to fully regulate worship guilds, the government (the competent authority) has nevertheless enacted Articles 51, 54 and 55 of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds to publicly auction the lands for the second time. The competent authority then informed the land registration authority to register those lands which had not been successfully sold in auctions as “state-owned” properties to increase the state-owned land resources. Moreover, the limitation period for applying for the auction price and the land value of registered state-owned land is ten years, and if no attempt has been made to make the application for the land price within the statutory limitation, the remaining amount after final calculation will be given to the “Treasury.” This type of land policy accords more emphasis on public interest than private interest, seriously depriving properties owned by worship guilds. To publicly auction properties on behalf of worship guilds by exercising the public powers violates the principle of necessity as set out in Article 15 of the Constitution and the principle of proportionality as set out in Article 23 of the Constitution. This is deprivation of people’s right to property which is detailed in this research. II. Suggestions: there are still regulatory blind spots in practice with respect to the declaration and clearance procedures of worship guilds after the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds took effect. The following suggestions are made as references for future amendment to the Statutes: (1) Suggested amendment to Article 5 of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds, “1. … the successor shall be listed as a member of the worship guild only if he or she shares the duty of ancestor worship with a founding member of the guild or a member of the same clan.” (2) Paragraph 1 of Article 50 of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds provides “…shall handle the land and building as per one of the following methods within three years.” The wording “one of the following” should be deleted. (3) It is suggested that Paragraph 3 of Article 50 of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds should be amended. (4) The competent authority of the municipal city, county (city) government should undertake public auctions on behalf of worship guilds as set out in Article 51 of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds violates the protection of property rights and the principle of proportionality guaranteed by Articles 15 and 25 of the Constitution respectively. It is suggested that the article should be deleted or amended. (5) Article 12 of the Statutes Governing Worship Guilds fails to include the mediation mechanism by way of transferring the case to the municipal city, county (city) government for mediation. It is suggested that such mechanism should be incorporated in order to facilitate the clearance.

The New Zealand Wool Industry (NZWI) contributes over a billion dollars a year to NZ gross output. However, this industry is at a crossroads and the incumbent practitioners are looking for ways to increase the value of the New Zealand wool clip. The value of the industry to the economy is directly related to the price which buyers are prepared to pay for wool, primarily as a result of the marketing approaches used, physical parameters of wool as well as intra and inter-fibre competition. The inflation adjusted price has steadily decreased over recent years and understanding of its dynamics is a fundamental problem for the stakeholders. Among the stakeholders, buyers / exporters, heavily involved in the process of price formation currently face a real time problem of sourcing strong wool from two parallel but different marketing systems operated simultaneously – auction and direct supply. The underlying mathematics which governs the decision making of buyers on the price dynamics in these sourcing options is poorly understood. This study developed system models for price formation in both auction and direct supply sourcing and an associated optimization model for the buyer / exporter of the New Zealand wool clip. All three of these models were original and none appear to have been described previously. It is hoped that these three models will be of quite general utility and also be useful therefore for other agricultural commodities that are traded simultaneously via auction and direct supply. The average price for a given wool type, which is the output from this new modelling exercise is precisely what is required as input data for solving the minimization problem in wool blending models.

Cette thèse est composée de trois essais en économie forestière. Les deux premiers s'intéressent à la fixation de la redevance optimale à laquelle fait face le propriétaire d'une ressource forestière dans un contexte d'information asymétrique. Le troisième analyse l'impact à long terme du recyclage sur la surface de terre affectée à la forêt. La gestion des ressources forestières implique souvent la délégation des droits de coupe par le propriétaire forestier à une entreprise exploitante. Cette délégation prend la forme d'un contrat de concession par lequel le propriétaire forestier octroie les droits d'exploitation aux compagnies forestières, en contrepartie d'une redevance (transfert monétaire). L'octroie des droits d'exploitation s'effectue généralement sous plusieurs modes, dont les plus répandus sont les appels d'offres publics et les contrats de gré à gré, où le propriétaire forestier et la firme exploitante spécifient entre autres la redevance dans les clauses d'exploitation de la forêt. Pour déterminer le mécanisme optimal (choix de la firme, âge de coupe et redevance), le propriétaire forestier a idéalement besoin de connaître les coûts de coupe et de reboisement. Or en réalité, les firmes sont mieux informées sur leurs coûts que le propriétaire forestier. Dans ce contexte d'information asymétrique, le mécanisme optimal doit donc prendre en considération des contraintes informationnelles. Les deux premiers essais caractérisent, sous ces conditions, l'âge de coupe optimal (la rotation optimale) et la redevance optimale. Le premier essai examine le contrat optimal quand le propriétaire forestier cède les droits de coupes à une firme par un accord de gré à gré ou par une procédure d'appel d'offre public au second prix. L'analyse du problème est menée premièrement dans un contexte statique, dans le sens que les coûts de coupe sont parfaitement corrélés dans le temps, puis dans un contexte dynamique, où les coûts sont indépendants dans le temps. L'examen en statique et en dynamique montre que la rotation optimale va satisfaire une version modifiée de la règle de Faustmann qui prévaudrait en information symétrique. Cette modification est nécessaire afin d'inciter la firme à révéler ses vrais coûts. Dans le cas statique, il en résulte que la rotation optimale est plus élevée en information asymétrique qu'en situation de pleine information. Nous montrons également comment le seuil maximal de coût de coupe peut être endogénéisé, afin de permettre au propriétaire d'accroître son profit espéré en s'assurant que les forêts non profitables ne seront pas exploitées. Nous comparons ensuite la redevance optimale en information asymétrique et symétrique. Les redevances forestières dans un arrangement de gré à gré étant généralement, en pratique, une fonction linéaire du volume de bois, nous dérivons le contrat optimal en imposant une telle forme de redevance et nous caractérisons la perte en terme de profit espéré qui résulte de l'utilisation de ce type de contrat plutôt que du contrat non linéaire plus général. Finalement, toujours dans le contexte statique, nous montrons à travers un mécanisme optimal d'enchère au second prix qu'en introduisant ainsi la compétition entre les firmes le propriétaire forestier augmente son profit espéré. Les résultats obtenus dans le contexte dynamique diffèrent pour la plupart de ceux obtenus dans le cas statique. Nous montrons que le contrat optimal prévoit alors que chaque type de firme, incluant celle ayant le coût le plus élevé, obtient une rente strictement positive, laquelle augmente dans le temps. Ceci est nécessaire pour obtenir la révélation à moindre coût à la période courante du véritable type de la firme. Comme implication, la rotation optimale s'accroît aussi dans le temps. Finalement, nous montrons qu'il y a distorsion en asymétrique d'information par rapport à l'optimum de pleine information même pour le coût le plus bas (la réalisation la plus favorable). La concurrence introduite dans le premier essai sous forme d'enchère au second prix suppose que chaque firme connaît exactement son propre coût de coupe. Dans le deuxième essai nous relâchons cette hypothèse. En réalité, ni le propriétaire forestier ni les firmes ne connaissent avec précision les coûts de coupe. Chaque firme observe de manière privée un signal sur son coût. Par exemple chaque firme est autorisée à visiter un lot pour avoir une estimation (signal) de son coût de coupe. Cependant cette évaluation est approximative. Ainsi, le coût de chaque firme va dépendre des estimations (signaux) d'autres firmes participantes. Nous sommes en présence d'un mécanisme à valeurs interdépendantes. Dans ce contexte, la valeur d'une allocation dépend des signaux de toutes les firmes. Le mécanisme optimal (attribution des droits d'exploitation, redevance et âge de coupe) est exploré. Nous déterminons les conditions sous lesquelles le mécanisme optimal peut être implémenté par une enchère au second prix et dérivons la rotation optimale et le prix de réserve dans le contexte de ce type d'enchère. Le troisième essai de la thèse analyse l'impact à long terme du recyclage sur la surface de terre affectée à la forêt. L'un des principaux arguments qui milite en faveur du recours au recyclage est que cela entraînerait une réduction de la coupe de bois, épargnant ainsi des arbres. L'objectif est donc d'aboutir à un nombre d'arbres plus important qu'en l'absence de recyclage. L'idée d'accroître le stock d'arbre tient au fait que les forêts génèrent des externalités: elles créent un flux de services récréatifs, freinent l'érosion des sols et des rives des cours d'eau et absorbent du dioxyde de carbone présent dans l'atmosphère. Étant donné la présence d'externalités, l'équilibre des marchés résulterait en un nombre d'arbre insuffisant, justifiant donc la mise en oeuvre de politiques visant à l'accroître. Le but de ce troisième essai est de voir dans quelle mesure la promotion du recyclage est un instrument approprié pour atteindre un tel objectif. En d'autres mots, comment le recyclage affecte-t-il à long terme la surface de terre en forêt et l'âge de coupe? Nous étudions cette question en spécifiant un modèle dynamique d'allocation d'un terrain donné, par un propriétaire forestier privé, entre la forêt et une utilisation alternative du terrain, comme l'agriculture. Une fois les arbres coupés, il décide d'une nouvelle allocation du terrain. Il le fait indéfiniment comme dans le cadre du modèle de Faustmann. Le bois coupé est transformé en produit final qui est en partie recyclé comme substitut du bois original. Ainsi, les outputs passés affectent le prix courant. Nous montrons que, paradoxalement, un accroissement du taux de recyclage réduira à long terme la surface forestière et donc diminuera le nombre d'arbres plantés. Par contre l'âge de coupe optimal va s'accroître. L'effet net sur le volume de bois offert sur le marché est ambigu. Le principal message cependant est qu'à long terme le recyclage va résulter en une surface en forêt plus petite et non plus grande. Donc, si le but est d'accroître la surface en forêt, il pourrait être préférable de faire appel à d'autres types d'instruments de politique que celui d'encourager le recyclage. / This thesis consists of three essays. The first two deal with the design of optimal royalty contracts for forestry exploitation under asymmetric information. The third examines the impact of recycling on the long-run forestry. The management of forest resources often involves the delegation of the harvesting operation by the forest owner to a harvesting firm. This delegation takes the form of a concession contract in which the forest owner leases logging rights to companies specialized in planting and harvesting, in return for preestablished royalty payments. The royalty (monetary transfers) can be set through different methods. For example, the forest owner can organize an auction among firms. Another way is to negotiate directly with a single firm the terms of the exploitation of the forest and hence the monetary transfers. To set the royalty schedule, the forest owner ideally needs to know the firms' costs, namely the harvesting and planting costs. In practice however firms are better informed about their costs than the forest owner. Under this asymmetry of information, the optimal royalty must therefore take into account informational constraints. The first two essays characterize the optimal royalty and the optimal rotation period under those conditions. The first essay analyzes the optimal contract under the assumption that the harvesting cost of each firm is perfectly known to itself but not to the forest owner. The problem is examined both in a static context, where the costs are perfectly correlated over time, and in a dynamic context where the costs are intertemporally independent. It is shown that both in the static and in the dynamic cases, the optimal rotation will satisfy a modified version of the Faustmann rule which holds under symmetric information, the modification being necessary in order to induce cost revelation on the part of the harvesting firm. As a result, looking first at the static case, the optimal rotation period will be longer in the asymmetric information case than in the symmetric information case. It is also shown how the cut-off cost can be endogenized, thus increasing the owner's expected profit by making sure that unprofitable forests are not exploited. Finally the comparison is made of the royalty in the symmetric and asymmetric information cases. Because forest contracts are in practice typically linear in the volume harvested, the optimal royalty is derived under the constraint that it is a linear function of the volume harvested and the loss in expected welfare from using a linear contract instead of the theoretically more general nonlinear contract is characterized. Finally, still in the static context, it is shown that the forest owner could raise its expected profit by allowing competition among firms through public auctions. It is shown in the dynamic context that, unlike in the static case, all firms, including the highest-cost type, get a strictly positive rent. It is also shown that the firm's rent rises over time. This is necessary in order to get revelation at a lower cost in the current period. Therefore, the optimal rotation increases over time as well. The optimal contract under asymmetry of information also has the effect of distorting the lowest-cost firm in this case. In the second essay, the assumption that the harvesting cost of each firm is perfectly known to itself is dropped. Indeed, in practice neither the forest owner nor the firms know the costs perfectly. Each firm only observes a signal of its cost. For example each firm may be allowed to survey a tract of forest to obtain an estimate (signal) of its cutting cost. Given that its observation is imperfect, a firm's cost will therefore depend on estimations (signals) by the other firms as well, which are private information. This second essay then raises the problem of auction design with firms whose values (costs) are interdependent. In this context, the value of an allocation will depend on the signals of all of the participating firms. The optimal contract is characterized and the conditions under which the optimal mechanism can be implemented by a second price auction are explored. The optimal rotation and the reservation price are derived under this auction mechanism. The third essay studies the effect of recycling on the land area devoted to forestry in the long run. Interest in recycling of forest products has grown in recent years, one of the goals being to conserve trees or possibly increase their number to compensate for positive externalities generated by the forest and neglected by the market. This paper explores the issue as to whether recycling is an appropriate measure to attain such a goal. We do this by considering the problem of the private owner of an area of land, who, acting as a price taker, decides how to allocate his land over time between forestry and some other use, and at what age to harvest the forest area chosen. Once the forest is cut, he makes a new land allocation decision and replants. He does so indefinitely, in a Faustmann-like framework. The wood from the harvest is transformed into a final product which is partly recycled into a substitute for the virgin wood, so that past output affects the current price. We show that in such a context, increasing the rate of recycling will result in less area being devoted to forestry. It will also have the effect of increasing the harvest age of the forest, as long as the planting cost is positive. The net effect on the flow of virgin wood being harvested to supply the market will as a result be ambiguous. An important point however is that recycling will result in less trees in the long run, not more. It would therefore be best to resort to other means if the goal is to conserve the area devoted to forestry.

Tendering is a method for entering into a sales contract. Numerous electronic tendering systems have been established with the intent of improving the efficiency of the tendering process. Although providing adequate security services is a desired feature in an e-tendering system, current e-tendering systems are usually designed with little consideration of security and legal compliance. This research focuses on designing secure protocols for e-tendering systems. It involves developing methodologies for establishing security requirements, constructing security protocols and using formal methods in protocol security verification. The implication is that it may prove suitable for developing secure protocols in other electronic business domains. In depth investigations are conducted into a range of issues in relation to establishing generic security requirements for e-tendering systems. The outcomes are presented in a form of basic and advanced security requirements for e-tendering process. This analysis shows that advanced security services are required to secure e-tender negotiation integrity and the submission process. Two generic issues discovered in the course of this research, functional difference and functional limitations, are fundamental in constructing secure protocols for tender negotiation and submission processes. Functional difference identification derives advanced security requirements. Functional limitation assessment defines how the logic of generic security mechanisms should be constructed. These principles form a proactive analysis applied prior to the construction of security protocols. Security protocols have been successfully constructed using generic cryptographic security mechanisms. These protocols are secure e-tender negotiation integrity protocol suite, and secure e-tender submission protocols. Their security has been verified progressively during the design. Verification results show that protocols are secure against common threat scenarios. The primary contribution of this stage are the procedures developed for the complex e-business protocol analysis using formal methods. The research shows that proactive analysis has made this formal security verification possible and practical for complex protocols. These primary outcomes have raised awareness of security issues in e-tendering. The security solutions proposed in the protocol format are the first in e-tendering with verifiable security against common threat scenarios, and which are also practical for implementation. The procedures developed for securing the e-tendering process are generic and can be applied to other business domains. The study has made improvements in: establishing adequate security for a business process; applying proactive analysis prior to secure protocol construction; and verifying security of complex e-business protocols using tool aided formal methods.

Made available in DSpace on 2009-11-18T19:01:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2003 / Auctions are secular institutions used in the commercial relationships among individuaIs and organizations. They provi de greater flexibility to the processes of determination of prices and allocation of goods, increasing the space for negotiations among buyers and sellers. In the Internet, they have been used, in a growing way, in B2B and G2B electronic commerce, mostly through the model of reverse auctions. However, its unidimensional aspect reduces the negotiations to the variable price, producing, many times, bad results. In the Brazilian case, the Federal Government launched Comprasnet, an Internet public emarketplace, through which public organizations acquire goods and services from registered suppliers. Considering alI the available bidding modalities, 'Electronic Pregão' stands out, as an unidimensional reverse auction, based on price, through which suppliers dispute for contracts of the public administration. In the present work, the author proposes a multicriteria decision-making approach, based on Multi-attribute Utility Theory, as an alternative for the adoption of multi-attribute reverse auctions, adding value to Brazilian Public Buying Organizations. / Leilões são instituições seculares utilizadas nas relações comerciais entre indivíduos e organizações. Provêem maior flexibilidade aos processos de determinação de preços e alocação de bens, aumentando o espaço para negociações entre compradores e vendedores. Na Internet, têm sido empregados, de maneira crescente, em atividades de comércio eletrônico B2B e G2B, em sua maioria, através da modalidade de leilão reverso. No entanto, seu aspecto unidimensional reduz as negociações à variável preço, produzindo, muitas vezes, resultados aquém do desejado. No caso brasileiro, o Governo Federal instituiu o Portal Comprasnet, através do qual, as organizações públicas adquirem bens e serviços de fornecedores cadastrados. Dentre as modalidades de licitação disponíveis, destaca-se o Pregão Eletrônico, um mecanismo de leilão eletrônico reverso baseado no atributo preço, através do qual, fornecedores submetem lances decrescentes, na disputa por contratos do setor público. No presente trabalho, o autor propõe uma abordagem de decisão multicritério, baseada na Teoria da Utilidade Multiatributo, como uma alternativa para a adoção de leilões reversos baseados em múltiplos atributos e, consequentemente, para uma maior agregação de valor pelas organizações compradoras do setor público brasileiro.

Submitted by Evandro Baradel (ebaradel@usp.br) on 2012-02-02T19:35:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoFGV-EvandroMeiraBaradel.pdf: 3505315 bytes, checksum: 52f701783e460955785428d0e9df64ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2012-02-02T19:57:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoFGV-EvandroMeiraBaradel.pdf: 3505315 bytes, checksum: 52f701783e460955785428d0e9df64ab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-02-03T10:31:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoFGV-EvandroMeiraBaradel.pdf: 3505315 bytes, checksum: 52f701783e460955785428d0e9df64ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-21 / This dissertation shows that the bidding issue can be used as a regional development public policy instrument. The biddings in the state of São Paulo are based on a public policy that requires procedures of territorial decentralization. The decree that regulates this policy is focused mainly on giving a favored and simplified treatment to micro and small businesses. On the issue of decentralization the São Paulo government presents innovation in relation to federal legislation dealing with the subject. The decentralization phenomenon can contribute to increase the amount of winning companies that belong to particular region where the biddings producing 'regional economic growth'. However, here we adopt the hypothesis that this differential has not been effective. To verify it, we conducted a case study focused on two units of the University of São Paulo, both located in countryside. Analyzed the presence and electronic (reverse auctions) bidding procedures. The comparative analysis was still supplemented by a questionnaire given to civil servants of the procurement area of various units of this University. The result obtained in this paper shows that the effect of promoting regional development has not been achieved in both cases studied. It concludes that we must go a long way in the discussion about the use of governmental purchasing power as a potential inducer of regional development, which invariably suffers from legal changes. It’s also necessary to adopt complementary public policies. / Esta dissertação aborda a questão das licitações e como elas podem ser usadas como instrumento de política pública de desenvolvimento regional. As licitações do estado de São Paulo são orientadas sob uma política pública que exige procedimentos licitatórios que considerem a descentralização territorial. O decreto que regulamenta tal política tem como principal enfoque o tratamento simplificado e favorecido a micro e pequenas empresas, sendo que o aspecto da descentralização inova em relação à legislação federal que aborda o assunto. O fenômeno descentralizador pode contribuir para o aumento da quantidade de empresas vencedoras pertencentes a uma determinada região na qual ocorrem às licitações, podendo desta forma produzir 'crescimento econômico regional'. Contudo, adota-se aqui a hipótese de que esse diferencial não tem surtido efeito. Para verificar tal hipótese, realizou-se um estudo de caso centrado em duas unidades da Universidade de São Paulo, ambas localizadas no interior do estado. Foram analisadas as licitações realizadas de maneira presencial e eletrônica (pregões). A análise comparativa ainda foi complementada por um questionário submetido aos servidores da área de licitação das diversas unidades desta Universidade. O resultado obtido neste trabalho indica que o efeito de promoção do desenvolvimento regional não ocorreu em ambos os casos estudados. Conclui-se, ainda, que é preciso avançar muito na discussão acerca da utilização do poder de compra do Estado como potencial indutor de desenvolvimento regional. Esta atuação estatal invariavelmente deverá sofrer mudanças legais, sendo necessária, também, a adoção de outras políticas públicas complementares.

The subject of this thesis is to introduce the reader to the issue of possible financial investment in the virtual economy with real funds and design strategies to maximize the initial capital appreciation. The introduction describes the analysis of virtual PED currency, the economy and the system of publicly traded shares. The main part is focused on presenting the results of practical traded investment based on fundamental analysis, speculation about the intrinsic value of the shares and evaluating applied strategies, including the benefits of work.

The doctoral thesis deals with bankruptcy and its possible solution from the point of view of expert activities. Valuation of the company in distress may be required at different stages of the business life cycle. While sometimes the valuation is requested directly by the shareholders or the managing partners facing bankruptcy (or preventing crisis) sometimes assessment is requested in insolvency proceedings by the insolvency administrator. Whether it is the intention to find out it is more beneficial for creditors to reorganise or liquidate the assets, in all these cases it is the work of experts in the insolvency proceedings who play a decisive role. The practical part of the thesis, therefore, focuses on the selection of appropriate methodologies which can be used at any given moment of crisis management.