Optimal prediction model of cyclical downturns proposed by Neftci (1982) was widely used in application to predict turning points of different economies such as US, UK, Japan, and West Germany. I apply Neftci model to predict the occurrence of bear markets of Taiwan stock market by using exchange rate of NTD, monitoring indicator of economy, and turnover rate of TAIEX as predictors. The results show that turnover rate outperforms the other two predictors, which signaled bear markets almost concurrently on average and the variation of the signal time is the smallest, ranging from 4 months lead to 4 months lag. / Optimal prediction model of cyclical downturns proposed by Neftci (1982) was widely used in application to predict turning points of different economies such as US, UK, Japan, and West Germany. I apply Neftci model to predict the occurrence of bear markets of Taiwan stock market by using exchange rate of NTD, monitoring indicator of economy, and turnover rate of TAIEX as predictors. The results show that turnover rate outperforms the other two predictors, which signaled bear markets almost concurrently on average and the variation of the signal time is the smallest, ranging from 4 months lead to 4 months lag.

The study characterized the morphological differences among Cisco between geographic arms and depth strata, and determined the trophic positioning of various morphs, based on twelve years of capture data and specimens using morphological measurements, meristic counts, stomach contents, stable isotopes and fatty acids. Two main Cisco morpho-types were identified, a shallow water form and a deep water form that mainly differed in traits associated with swimming and feeding. These results were reinforced by the results on trophic ecology of morphs that demonstrated that each morph occupied a distinct niche. Results showed that shallow water groups had a more varied diet with a high percentage of copepods being ingested whereas deep-water groups showed preferences towards mysids. Although a consistent pattern in differences among shallow and deep morphs was observed, there was some degree of variation among arms of the lake suggesting a degree of isolation and adaptation to local conditions in each area of the lake. For example, in Smith Arm, morphological and dietary differences were found such as narrower body depth and a dietary preference towards daphnia. / February 2017

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Certain characteristics generally attributed to the British Romantics can be seen in selected writings of Flannery O'Connor, a contemporary American author (1926-1964). Chapter I defines Romanticism and identifies the Romantic elements to be discussed in the paper. Chapter II discusses Gothicism, Primitivism, and the treatment of the child as they appear in five of O'Connor's short stories. Variations of the Byronic Hero are presented in Chapter III as they appear in two short stories and one novel, Wise Blood. The internal struggle and anti-intellectualism in The Violent Bear It Away are the basis of Chapter IV. Chapter V concludes that O'Connor's concern with man as master of his fate aligns her with the Romantics and thus illustrates the influence of Romanticism on contemporary life and art.

This dissertation deals with monitoring of European brown bears behavior (Ursus arctos arctos), namely of males Pišta, Miky and Honzík and of female Eliška in zoological garden in Plzen in spring 2012. Behaviour of all European brown bears is for better clarity presented in the form of tables and graphs. The dissertation includes overview of all kinds of ursine (size, environment, food and reproduction). Key words: bear, hibernation, bears activity

Magister Commercii - MCom / Since the discovery of herding behaviour in financial markets in the 1990s, it has become an area of interest for many investors, practitioners and scholars. Herding behaviour occurs when investors and market participants trade in the same direction during the same time period, as a result of the influence of other investors. Studies on herding behaviour have been undertaken in both the developed and developing economies and majority of these studies have confirmed the existence of herding behaviour in the stock markets. Despite its tremendous growth, the South African financial markets are not immune to such market anomaly. Herding behaviour on the JSE was first investigated in 2002 focusing in the unit trust industry on the South African stock market. Motivated by this, this study assessed the presence of herding behaviour using the Johannesburg Securities Exchange tradable sector indices. Four indices were employed, namely Financials, Industrials and Resources and were benchmarked against the JSE All Share Index for the period from January 2007 to December 2017. The industrials index ((FINI15) constitutes of 25 largest industrial stocks by market capitalization, the financials index (FINI15) comprises of 15 largest financial stocks by market capitalization, the resources index (RESI10) which represents 10 largest resources stocks by market capitalization and lastly the FTSE/JSE All Share Index defined as a market capitalization-weighted index which is made up of 150 JSE listed companies and is the largest index in terms of size and overall value JSE. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index was used as a benchmark for investors to check how volatile an investment is. The South African economy experienced the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis from 01 July 2007 to 31 August 2009. This study split the examination period into three categories namely before the global financial crises which was the period starting from 1 January 2007 to 30 June 2007, then the period during the global financial crisis which was from 1 July 2007 to 31 August 2009 and lastly the period after the global financial crises which was from 1 September 2009 to 31 December 2017. Apart from the diversity of the indices, the length of the examination period also had a significant influence towards the magnitude of herding behaviour on the JSE.

Human influence on the environment is becoming increasingly pervasive across the globe, and can drastically impact ecological patterns and processes. For many terrestrial wildlife species, human influence can fragment critical habitat, increase mortality, and threaten habitat connectivity and ultimately the persistence of wildlife populations. This dissertation aims to use multiple conservation ecology methods and tools to test the impact of human influence on the population dynamics of a large carnivore in a human-dominated landscape. To assess the impact of human activity on carnivore ecology, a series of empirical studies were conducted on a small population of American black bear (Ursus americanus) in the Western Great Basin, USA. A long-term dataset including geographic locations of animal habitat choices as well as mortality locations were used in multiple statistical models that tested the response of black bears to human activity. These analyses were conducted at multiple spatial and temporal resolutions to reveal nuances potentially overlooked if analyses were limited to a single resolution. Individual studies, presented as dissertation chapters, examine the relationships between human activity and carnivore ecology. Collectively, the results of these studies find black bear ecology to be highly sensitive to the magnitude and spatial composition of human activity in the Lake Tahoe Basin, observable at both coarse and fine spatial resolutions. The results presented in this study on the influence of human activity on large carnivore population dynamics allow for a more thorough understanding of the various ways common conservation ecology methods and tools can be used to evaluate human-wildlife relationships.

Human activity modifies the behaviour of large vertebrates and their acquisition of key resources. Despite the predation risk and competition for similar food resources that humans impose, wildlife consumers must acquire key foods across the landscape. Predation risk can modify foraging behaviour, yet we know little about the potential consequences, especially on large spatial scales. Humans may also affect food availability for wildlife by competing for shared prey, which most current harvest prescriptions fail to recognize. Against this background of threats to consumer-resource interactions, my research employed new conceptual, analytical, and practical approaches to seek not only new generalizable insight but also applied solutions. Addressing these goals, I characterized foraging behaviour by grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) on a focal prey, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), at multiple spatial scales. I predicted how human activity – both as modifications to landscapes and as salmon harvest – might affect bear-salmon interactions. I co-conceived, designed, and carried out this work through a framework of community engagement, which I crafted in collaboration with Indigenous communities in coastal British Columbia (BC). The framework (Chapter 2) identifies how scientists and communities can engage throughout the research process to work towards shared priorities, despite potential challenges in differences of knowledge systems or capacities. Methodologically, I used ratios of stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotopes in bear hair to estimate relative contributions of salmon in the annual diet of bears and employed existing data on landscape modification and salmon fisheries (i.e., escapement and catch) to characterize human activity and to measure associated variation in salmon consumption by bears. My first empirical contribution (Chapter 3) characterized spatial patterns of annual salmon consumption by grizzly bears across BC. I found substantial differences in salmon consumption within and among grizzly and black (U. americanus) bears in a large coastal region and across BC. Visualizing variation in consumer-resource interactions could guide conservation and management efforts that seek to protect predator-prey associations and marine subsidies for terrestrial ecosystems. I also investigated potential drivers of salmon consumption by bears in interior and coastal watersheds that varied in disturbance (Chapter 4). I found that human footprint in riparian areas of salmon-bearing watersheds affected bear diets more than the amount of salmon biomass available, showing that human activity can disrupt an otherwise strong predator-prey association. My community-based research occurred at the scale of a single large watershed, where I demonstrated how the Wuikinuxv First Nation might design their salmon management prescriptions according to their cultural values (Chapter 5). Despite a reduced abundance of salmon in the area, I identified harvest options that would trade-off benefits to local people and bears equally. In general, my dissertation research contributes to our understanding of the role humans increasingly play in mediating consumer-resource interactions. I also highlight how scientific research can support the leadership that local management can provide in mitigating human impacts to sustain an iconic predator-prey interaction of ecological, economic, and cultural importance. / Graduate / 2020-04-23

Album Summary: (3-CD + DVD + 308 page book) Bear Family Records came into being in the late summer of 1975. We want to celebrate the company's 40th anniversary with a very special release. A CD/DVD/book edition has been produced just for this event. You may purchase this item at a special price. Our friends in the music industry, musicians and songwriters, have written and recorded a collection of 'Bear' songs especially for our anniversary. These original recordings - 72 in all - are available exclusively on this LP-sized Bear Family boxed set. Especially interesting are the songs that deal not just with any old bear, but with our own Bear Family label - Ry Cooder: I Wanna Be On Bear Family When I Die, Jim Diamond: Bear Family - Deke Dickerson: Bear Family Talking Blues - Roland Heinrich: Sixteen Discs, and Kim Lenz: What. In the accompanying 308-page LP-sized publication, you will read comments and remarks of internationally recognized music critics, experts and authors on Bear Family. We have re-printed all song lyrics, and of course there is a picture of every performing artist. Look back on Bear Family's 40-year history with the lavishly illustrated book. We want to thank all our facilitators and supporters who have made ??us what we are today, and last but not least we say goodbye to companions we have lost.

Loss of sea ice due to global warming may affect the phenology and distribution of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) denning by altering access to denning habitats. We examined trends in the selection of maternal denning substrate (land versus sea-ice denning) in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB), addressing the potential influence of summer land-use and fall sea-ice conditions on substrate selection. We developed an algorithm based on statistical process control methods to remotely identify denning bears and estimate denning phenology from temperature sensor data collected on collars deployed 1985–2013 in the SB and Chukchi Sea (CS). We evaluated cub survival relative to den entrance, emergence, and duration, and examined differences in the phenology of land and sea-ice dens. Land denning in the SB was more common during years when ice retreated farther from the coast and off of the continental shelf in September. All SB bears that occupied land prior to denning subsequently denned on land; however, only 29% of denning bears that summered on sea ice denned on land. Den entrance and duration in the SB and CS were similar, although CS bears emerged later. Land dens were occupied longer than those on ice. Bears later observed with cubs remained in dens 23 days longer and emerged from denning 17 days later on average than bears that denned but were subsequently observed without cubs, suggesting that den exit dates are related to cub survival. The increase in land-based denning in the SB when sea ice retreated farther from shore, along with the positive correlation between fall land-use and land denning, suggest that further sea-ice declines may result in continued increases of onshore denning. Growing numbers of denning females along the coast may increase the potential for human-bear interactions.