Submitted by Deivis Angeli (deivisangeli@gmail.com) on 2018-06-06T06:09:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DynamicCoordinationWithNetworkExternalities.pdf: 394741 bytes, checksum: e157b70d33e77a4676224e1c72a1e34d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Katia Menezes de Souza (katia.menezes@fgv.br) on 2018-06-06T12:05:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DynamicCoordinationWithNetworkExternalities.pdf: 394741 bytes, checksum: e157b70d33e77a4676224e1c72a1e34d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-06-06T12:50:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DynamicCoordinationWithNetworkExternalities.pdf: 394741 bytes, checksum: e157b70d33e77a4676224e1c72a1e34d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-06T12:50:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DynamicCoordinationWithNetworkExternalities.pdf: 394741 bytes, checksum: e157b70d33e77a4676224e1c72a1e34d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-05-09 / I analyze a dynamic coordination model under quasi-hyperbolic discounting. The main result is that present bias can induce a society to coordinate efficiently. When considering a transition from network A to B, higher present bias induces individuals to ask for higher relative quality of B, which is also what the central planner dictates, but for different reasons. Present biased agents overvalue relative quality, as positive externalities coming from more individuals in network B are more distant in the future, because transitioning takes time. The planner's motives are the negative externalities inflicted on agents 'stuck' in A during a transition. / É analizado um modelo de coordenação dinâmica sob desconto quasi-hiperbólico. O resultado principal é que a presença de miopia temporal pode induzir uma sociedade a coordenar eficientemente. Considerando a transição de uma rede A para uma rede B, maior miopia temporal induz indivíduos a serem mais exigentes em termos de qualidade intrínseca relativa da rede B, o que é a mesma coisa que um planejador central ditaria, mas por razões diferentes. Indivíduos com miopia temporal valorizam excessivamente a qualidade relativa, pois as externalidades recebidas por haver muitos indivíduos na rede B estão em um futuro distante e as transições não são imediatas. Os motivos da sugestão do planejador central são as externalidades negativas infligidas em agentes 'presos' na rede A durante uma transição.

This paper conducts an analysis of county level data to determine the effect of fast food restaurants on type 2 diabetes rates. Due to endogeneity concerns with respect to the location of fast food restaurants, this paper follows the work of Dunn (2010) and uses the number of interstate exits in a given county to serve as an instrument for fast food restaurants. The strength of the instrument, which is theoretically and empirically tested in this paper, imposes some restraints on the interpretation of the findings. Using the Two-Stage Least Squares estimation method, I find that the presence of fast food restaurants has a positive and statistically significant effect on type 2 diabetes rates at the county level.

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Research on financial decision aids, systems designed to help people make financial decisions, is sparse. Previous research has often focused on the theoretical soundness of the advice that the systems provide.The original contribution of this doctoral thesis is a set of empirical studies of how non-expert people understand the advice provided by financial decision aids. Since every piece of advice must be interpreted by a receiver, the accuracy of the advice can be corrupted along the way if the receiver does not understand complicated terminology, probabilistic reasoning, or abstract concepts.The design concept resulting from the studies visualizes a unique combination of short-term and long-term variables that are usually treated as separate and not interacting with each other; loans and amortizations, insurance, retirement saving, and consumption. The aim is to visualize the consequences of different decisions and possible adverse events in terms of their effect on the user’s future consumption, rather than abstract numbers detached from the user’s lived experience.The design concept was tested and evaluated by personal finance experts and professional financial advisors, as well as students and people without financial education, who represented the target users of the system. Results indicate that the system has a learning curve, but that once users understand how to read the graph, they find it more informative than conventional financial planning tools. / <p>QC 20170809</p>

La politique agro-environnementale de l’Union Européenne s’appuie fortement sur des incitations financières, les Contrats Agro-Environnementaux (CAE), pour stimuler l’adoption par les agriculteurs de pratiques respectueuses de l’environnement. Selon l’hypothèse de rationalité économique, les agriculteurs adoptent ces contrats si les paiements couvrent leurs coûts d’opportunité. Toutefois, l’Économie comportementale considère que des facteurs psychologiques pourraient intervenir dans cette décision. Le premier objectif de cette thèse est de déterminer le rôle des facteurs comportementaux dans l’adoption des CAE. Dans le chapitre 1, nous utilisons un modèle de psychologie sociale, la Théorie du Comportement Planifié, pour mesurer le poids de ces facteurs dans la décision d’adopter un CAE pour la réduction de l’utilisation de pesticides. L’enquête révèle que les agriculteurs sont à la fois influencés par des motivations économiques classiques et par les normes (sociales et personnelles). Dans le chapitre 2, nous étudions plus en détails le rôle des normes. A travers un modèle théorique, nous mettons en évidence que ces normes peuvent faciliter ou faire obstacle à l’adoption de CAE. Une enquête web nous permet de confirmer l’importance des normes sociales injonctives et des normes personnelles. Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse, nous analysons les performances de dispositifs innovants et comment ces performances sont influencées par les facteurs comportementaux. Dans le chapitre 3, pour traiter le problème des seuils environnementaux, nous testons avec une expérimentation économique un contrat dont le paiement est conditionné à une participation collective des agriculteurs. Ce contrat se révèle plus efficace et efficient que les CAE classiques. Les deux derniers chapitres traitent d’une nouvelle application des CAE à la compensation écologique. A partir d’une enquête, nous identifions dans le chapitre 4 les facteurs qui influencent la participation à ce type de contrats ainsi que des problèmes d’efficacité et d’efficience. Dans le chapitre 5, nous montrons à partir d’une expérience de choix, que les agriculteurs, notamment les plus sensibles à l’environnement, sont sensibles à la manière dont est formulée l’objectif d’un CAE : ils préfèrent des contrats dont l’objectif est la préservation de la biodiversité, plutôt que la compensation de pertes de biodiversité. Nous concluons en insistant sur la complémentarité entre les instruments traditionnels et comportementaux dans la politique environnementale. / The agri-environmental policy of the European Union strongly relies on financial incentives provided through Agri-envrionmental Schemes (AES) to stimulate farmers’ adoption of pro-environmental practices. A rational economic assumption is that farmers enroll if they are paid enough to cover their opportunity costs. However, behavioral economics consider that psychologic factors may be involved in this decision. The first aim of this thesis is to determine the role of behavioral factors in AES adoption. Chapter 1 uses a social-psychology model, the Theory of Planned Behavior, to measure the weight of behavioral factors in farmers’ decision to enroll in a pesticide-reduction AES. The survey reveals that farmers are both driven by traditional economic motivations and norms (social and personal). Chapter 2 studies in more details the role of norms. A theoretical model reveals that social norms may either hamper or facilitate the participation in AES and a web-survey, confirms the importance of social injunctive norms and personal norms. In the second part of the thesis, we analyze the performance of innovative designs and how it may be affected by behavioral factors. In chapter 3, to address cases of environmental threshold, we test with an economic experiment a contract in which payment is conditioned to collective farmers’ participation. This contract appears to be more effective and efficient than traditional AES. The two last chapters analyze a new application of AES: biodiversity offsets. Based on a survey, chapter 4 highlights factors that influence the participation in such contracts as well as issues of effectiveness and efficiency. In chapter 5, we show with a choice experiment that farmers, especially the most environmentally sensitive, are influenced by the contracts’ goal framing: they prefer contracts that aim at biodiversity conservation rather than at the compensation of biodiversity losses. We conclude by insisting on the complementarity between traditional and behavioral environmental policy instruments.

Price is the element of the marketing mix that has direct effect in the profits of a company. The right price can boost the profit and the wrong price can significantly shrink it. Thus, the businesses need to set the right price in order to maximize their revenues. However, the newest factors in the economic field, the continuous changes in the environment and the current financial situation in the world has eroded the pricing power and forces the managers to look in every direction in order to be able and keep up with the changes. Therefore, the aim of the thesis is to study the psychology of pricing related to the factors that affect the consumers' psychology and behavior when it comes to purchasing decision. The information will be then useful inputs for the companies in order to understand these factors and use them to set the most suitable pricing method for their product.

The thesis Phenomenology and Economics is an account of methodological possibilities brought by the phenomenological method into the realm of economic thought. From the starting point of Misesian praxeology the thesis advances to the key contributions of Alfred Schütz whose concept of telescopic ideal type enables us to cross the gap between theory and history. Telescopic ideal type allows us to grasp the specific nature of economics that is, on the one hand, proud of its rigor and precision connected with the formal modelling and on the other hand deals with an interpretation of individual agents in their life-world. Methodological insights developed through this analysis are then applied to the problem of coordination and spontaneous order and to the question of the relationship between behavioral economics and rational choice theory.

Effektiviteten på de finansiella marknaderna är något som studerats utifrån många olika perspektiv. Vad den effektiva marknadshypotesen i sin helhet påstår är att all information som tillkommer snabbt inkorporeras i aktiepriset utan att investerare har haft en chans att agera, vilket omöjliggör arbitragemöjligheter och således en chans till en positiv abnormal avkastning. Denna studies sätt att undersöka detta fenomen är att studera avkastningen vid genomförandet av en aktiesplit på stockholmsbörsen för att se om någon positiv abnormal föreligger. Studien är gjord i form av en eventstudie där aktiesplitar som genomförts under åren 2000 - 2006 och 2015 - 2019, där de undersökts och genomgått statistiska tester. Dessa olika tidsperioderna har till en början analyserats var för sig för att sedan jämföras mot varandra för att undersöka ifall skillnader föreligger. Studien har kommit fram till att positiv abnormal avkastning förekommer vid genomförandet av en aktiesplit på stockholmsbörsen och kan även se tendenser på skillnader mellan de olika undersökningsperioderna. / The efficiency of the financial markets is something that has been studied through many perspectives. What the efficient market hypothesis says is that new information that reaches the market fast incorporates in the stock price without any chance for the investors to act on it. This results in no chance in arbitrage opportunities hence no chance to positive abnormal return. This study's way of examining this phenomenon was to study the return on the implementation of stock splits which has been implemented on the swedish stock exchange to see if any positive abnormal return exists. This event study has examined stock splits during the periods of year 2000 - 2006 and 2015 - 2019 and statistical tests have been made. These different periods of time have at first been examined by themselves before comparing them with each other to see if there might be any different between them. This study shows that there are significant positive abnormal returns associated with stock returns on the swidish stock exchange during both periods. The study also shows tendencies of that the abnormal returns differ between the two time periods.

Certains problèmes ne peuvent être résolus ni par les ordinateurs seuls ni par les humains seuls. La visualisation d'information est une solution commune quand il est nécessaire de raisonner sur de grandes quantités de données. Plus une visualisation est efficace, plus il est possible de résoudre des problèmes complexes. Dans la recherche en visualisation d'information, une visualisation est généralement considérée comme efficace quand elle permet de comprendre les données. Les méthodes d'évaluation cherchent à déterminer si les utilisateurs comprennent les données affichées et sont capables d'effectuer des tâches analytiques comme, par exemple, identifier si deux variables sont corrélées. Cette thèse suggère d'aller au-delà de ce ``paradigme de l'analyse visuelle'' et élargir le champ de recherche à un autre type de tâche: la prise de décision. Les tâches de décision sont essentielles à tous, du directeur d'entreprise qui doit prendre des décisions importantes à l'individu ordinaire qui choisit un plan de carrière ou désire simplement acheter un appareil photo. Néanmoins, les décisions ne se résument pas à la simple compréhension de l'information et sont difficiles à étudier. Elles peuvent impliquer des préférences subjectives, n'ont pas toujours de vérité de terrain, et dépendent souvent de connaissances externes aux données visualisées. Pourtant, les tâches de décision ne font pas partie des taxonomies de tâches en visualisation et n'ont pas été bien définies. De plus, la recherche manque de métriques, de méthodes et de travaux empiriques pour valider l'efficacité des visualisations pour la prise de décision. Cette thèse offre une définition opérationnelle pour une classe particulière de tâches de décision, et présente une analyse systématique qui identifie les visualisations multidimensionnelles compatibles avec ces tâches. Elle présente en outre la première comparaison empirique de techniques de visualisation multidimensionnelle basée sur leur capacité à aider la décision, et esquisse une méthodologie et des métriques pour évaluer la qualité des décisions. Elle explore ensuite le rôle des instructions dans les tâches de décision et des tâches analytiques équivalentes, et identifie des différences de performance entre les deux tâches. De même que les sciences de la vision informent la visualisation d'information sur les limites de la vision humaine, aller au-delà du paradigme de l'analyse visuelle implique de prendre en compte les limites du raisonnement humain. Cette thèse passe en revue la théorie de la décision afin de mieux comprendre comment les humains prennent des décisions, et formule une nouvelle taxonomie de biais cognitifs basée sur la tâche utilisateur. En outre, elle démontre empiriquement que des biais peuvent être présents même quand l'information est bien visualisée, et qu'une décision peut être ``correcte'' mais néanmoins irrationnelle, dans le sens où elle est influencée par des informations non pertinentes. Cette thèse examine finalement comment mitiger les biais. Les méthodes pour améliorer le raisonnement humain reposent souvent sur un entraînement intensif à des principes et à des procédures abstraites, qui se révèlent souvent peu efficaces. Les visualisations offrent une opportunité dans la mesure où ses concepteurs peuvent remodeler l'environnement pour changer la façon dont les utilisateurs assimilent les données. Cette thèse passe en revue la théorie de la décision pour identifier de possibles solutions de conception. De plus, elle démontre empiriquement que supplémenter une visualisation par des interactions qui facilitent des stratégies de décision alternatives peut mener à des décisions plus rationnelles. Via des études empiriques, cette thèse suggère que le paradigme de l'analyse visuelle n'est pas en mesure de relever tous les défis de la prise de décision aidée de la visualisation, mais qu'aller au-delà peut contribuer à faire de la visualisation un puissant outil de prise de décision. / There are problems neither humans nor computers can solve alone. Computer-supported visualizations are a well-known solution when humans need to reason based on a large amount of data. The more effective a visualization, the more complex the problems that can be solved. In information visualization research, to be considered effective, a visualization typically needs to support data comprehension. Evaluation methods focus on whether users indeed understand the displayed data, can gain insights and are able to perform a set of analytic tasks, e.g., to identify if two variables are correlated. This dissertation suggests moving beyond this "visual analysis paradigm" by extending research focus to another type of task: decision making. Decision tasks are essential to everybody, from the manager of a company who needs to routinely make risky decisions to an ordinary person who wants to choose a career life path or simply find a camera to buy. Yet decisions do not merely involve information understanding and are difficult to study. Decision tasks can involve subjective preferences, do not always have a clear ground truth, and they often depend on external knowledge which may not be part of the displayed dataset. Nevertheless, decision tasks are neither part of visualization task taxonomies nor formally defined. Moreover, visualization research lacks metrics, methodologies and empirical works that validate the effectiveness of visualizations in supporting a decision. This dissertation provides an operational definition for a particular class of decision tasks and reports a systematic analysis to investigate the extent to which existing multidimensional visualizations are compatible with such tasks. It further reports on the first empirical comparison of multidimensional visualizations for their ability to support decisions and outlines a methodology and metrics to assess decision accuracy. It further explores the role of instructions in both decision tasks and equivalent analytic tasks, and identifies differences in accuracy between those tasks. Similarly to vision science that informs visualization researchers and practitioners on the limitations of human vision, moving beyond the visual analysis paradigm would mean acknowledging the limitations of human reasoning. This dissertation reviews decision theory to understand how humans should, could and do make decisions and formulates a new taxonomy of cognitive biases based on the user task where such biases occur. It further empirically shows that cognitive biases can be present even when information is well-visualized, and that a decision can be ``correct'' yet irrational, in the sense that people's decisions are influenced by irrelevant information. This dissertation finally examines how biases can be alleviated. Current methods for improving human reasoning often involve extensive training on abstract principles and procedures that often appear ineffective. Yet visualizations have an ace up their sleeve: visualization designers can re-design the environment to alter the way people process the data. This dissertation revisits decision theory to identify possible design solutions. It further empirically demonstrates that enriching a visualization with interactions that facilitate alternative decision strategies can yield more rational decisions. Through empirical studies, this dissertation suggests that the visual analysis paradigm cannot fully address the challenges of visualization-supported decision making, but that moving beyond can contribute to making visualization a powerful decision support tool.

People use shortcuts to make decisions to efficiently deal with a large volume of information. Linear thinking is one shortcut and it contributes to exponential growth bias which means underestimation of exponential growth values. This study examined differences in exponential growth bias in the context of the stock market and COVID-19 cases. Moreover, this research analyzed correlation between exponential growth bias and worry for health and for the economy in the contexts of COVID-19 and stock market. A total of 120 participants completed an online survey in which they were randomly assigned to the COVID-19 or stock market group. A 2 x 3 repeated measures ANOVA showed no significant differences depending on the group. Moreover, ANOVA showed that bias increased in line with the increase in the percentages analyzed for both groups. Exploratory Pearson analysis showed that there was a significant negative correlation between worry for the economy and exponential growth bias of 15% and 40% growth scenarios in COVID-19 group. There were no significant correlations between worry for the economy or health in the stock market group. The conclusion is that people use shortcuts which leads them to biased decision- making. For example, when calculating exponential values, people think linearly and it leads them to exponential growth bias, what in practice results in estimating values lower than they are. Interventions, as education with aim to reduce exponential growth bias are proposed for the future research.