Cette thèse traite du problème de la façon de prendre des décisions impliquant à la fois la temporisation et l'information ambiguë. Cette thèse se compose de trois chapitres. Le chapitre 1 passe en revue une série d'études sur l'influence de l'ambiguïté et de la temporisation sur la prise de décision individuelle, et soulève deux questions de recherche de la thèse actuelle: 1) Est-ce que les préférences d'ambiguïté des décideurs sont différentes pour les perspectives résolues dans le présent et l'avenir? et 2) Est-ce que les préférences temporelles de décideurs diffèrent sous les récompenses ambiguës et non ambiguës? Les chapitres 2 et 3 sont deux essais indépendants qui traitent de ces deux questions, respectivement. Le premier essai examine les préférences d'ambiguïté sous la résolution actuelle et retardée à travers les probabilités basses et hautes. Les résultats des trois études montrent un effet d'interaction entre le temps de résolution et le niveau de probabilité. Sous résolution immédiate, nous constatons que les individus présentent l'aversion d'ambiguïté à des probabilités élevées et ambiguïté-recherche faible, ou l'indifférence à faibles probabilités, cohérentes avec la littérature antérieure. Toutefois, la résolution future régresse aversion et de comportement de recherché à la neutralité. S’appuyant sur la théorie du niveau de construal et la théorie de double-processus, nous attribuons cet effet d'interaction à la différence de styles de traitement pour les perspectives présentes et futures. Le deuxième essai démontre l'impact de récompenses futures ambigus sur les préférences intertemporelles. Six études montrent que, malgré le fait que les récompenses ambiguës et retardées sont généralement detestés séparément, ensemble, elles produisent un effet positif. C'est-à-dire que, les récompenses ambiguës futures sont plus susceptibles d'être préférés que les récompenses précises (avec les valeurs attendues égales) dans la prise de decision intertemporelle. Nous proposons l'hypothèse de l’eclipse (overshadowing) pour expliquer cet effet et excluons trois autres possibilités. Enfin, nous établissons des conditions aux limites en examinant systématiquement si l'effet persiste à différents niveaux d'ambiguïté et de points de temps. / This dissertation addresses the issue of how to make decisions involving both time delay and ambiguous information. This dissertation is arranged into three chapters. Chapter 1 reviews a set of studies on the influence of ambiguity and time delay on individual decision making and raises two relevant research questions: (1) Are decision makers' ambiguity preferences different for prospects resolved in the present and the future?; and (2) Do decision makers' time preferences differ under ambiguous and unambiguous payoffs? Chapter 2 and 3 are two independent essays, each addressing one of the above questions. The first essay examines ambiguity preferences under present and delayed resolutions across low and high probabilities. Results of three studies show an interaction effect between resolution time and probability level. Under the immediate resolution, we find that individuals exhibit ambiguity aversion at high probabilities and weak ambiguity seeking or indifference at low probabilities, consistent with prior literature. However, delayed resolution regresses aversion and seeking behaviors to neutrality. Drawing on the construal level theory and the dual-process theory, we attribute this interaction effect to the difference in processing styles for present and future prospects. The second essay demonstrates the impact of ambiguous future payoffs on intertemporal preferences. Six studies show that, despite the fact that ambiguous and delayed payoffs are generally disliked separately, together they produce a positive effect. That is, ambiguous future payoffs are more likely to be preferred than precise payoffs (with equal expected values) in intertemporal decision-making. We propose the overshadowing hypothesis to explain this effect and rule out three other possibilities. Finally, we establish boundary conditions by systematically examining whether the effect persists at various ambiguity levels and time points.

Trust is a social phenomenon fundamental to relationships and a building block of our society. People experience it daily, such as in a borrowing between friends, in an e-commerce transaction, in a mother-son relationship, in a connection between autonomous agents, or to show faith in God (\"In God we trust\"). In the specific case of Biodiversity domain, trust is one of the pillars of the Citizen Science projects, which are helping to solve the lack of biodiversity data by engaging citizens to work as volunteers to address this problem. Measuring and simulating levels of trust on these projects might reveal or anticipate losses; for example, the disposal of data because a deficit of trust on the technical capacity of the volunteers, opening an opportunity to manage and improve it. However, trust is a hard concept to define. The word \'trust\' may carry different meanings, such as honesty, security, integrity, competence, etc. and this is an attribute of the \'suitcase words\'. Adopting the \'suitcase\' perspective would change the way as we define, model, and simulate trust, once people would identify, decode, and simulate many meanings of trust with a single approach. In this scenario, the main objective of our research was to verify the hypotheses 1) that trust is a suitcase word, and 2) that trust can be modeled and simulated under a suitcase word perspective. A network analysis of the Web of Science citation database was able to confirm the hypothesis that trust is a suitcase word, since a distribution analysis of articles showed that trust occurs across a wide range of disciplines, and since co-occurrence maps of keywords showed that trust meanings from these disciplines may be significantly different. To verify the second hypothesis, we proposed a framework to manage trust with three components: 1) a suitcase model to identify different meanings of trust, which is the main purpose of this work, 2) a procedure to detail trust situations in terms of the suitcase model, and 3) a behavioral decision model of confidence, which was required for our simulation, since trust and control play complementary roles in the development of confidence, and consequently, to generate a confident behavior to cooperate. In our suitcase model the decision to trust (or distrust) the trustee depends on the trustors\' general capacity to take risks (= trustfulness) and on the assessment of trustee\'s interests and capacity to behavior as the trustor expects (= trustworthiness). In a practical and workable way, trustworthiness was considered a function of the trustor\'s expectations (expected evidence) and the trustee\'s previous behavior (collected evidence) for each situation. We proposed a formalism to the suitcase model, and then replicated the PlayGround simulator to modify it and incorporate our model. The new simulator, the PlayGround 2.0, was used to run a case study using trust situations from Citizen Science projects. Our main goal with this case study was to test the hypothesis that trust can be simulated under a suitcase perspective. A successful simulation would plot agents in the field reacting differently according to each situation. Results were as expected, what demonstrated the comprehensive utility of our model, with potential to handle different meanings of trust in the context of Citizen Science in the Biodiversity domain. / Trust, que em português não possui uma tradução que reflita a sua complexidade, é um fenômeno fundamental para os relacionamentos e uma peça fundamental da nossa sociedade. Trust é vivenciada diariamente pelas pessoas, seja em um empréstimo entre amigos, em uma transação de comércio eletrônico, na relação entra uma mãe e um filho, na conexão entre agentes autônomos, ou para demonstrar a nossa fé. No caso específico da ciência da Biodiversidade, trust é um dos pilares dos projetos de Ciência Cidadã, que ajudam a resolver a falta de dados de biodiversidade engajando cidadãos para trabalhar como voluntários para solucionar o problema. Medir e simular trust nestes projetos pode revelar ou antecipar perdas, por exemplo, o descarte de dados devido à falta de trust na capacidade técnica dos voluntários, abrindo oportunidades para sua gestão e incentivo. Contudo, trust é um conceito difícil de definir. A palavra pode carregar muitos significados, tais como honestidade, segurança, integridade, competência, etc., e esta é uma característica das suitcase words (palavras-mala). Adotar uma perspectiva de suitcase pode mudar a maneira como definimos, modelamos e simulamos trust, pois as pessoas poderiam identificar, decodificar, e simular vários significados de trust com uma única abordagem. Neste cenário, o objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi verificar as hipóteses de que 1) trust é uma suitcase word e de que 2) trust pode ser modelada e simulada em uma perspectiva de suitcase com potencial para manipulação de diferentes significados. Uma análise de distribuição utilizando o banco de dados Web of Science foi suficiente para confirmar a primeira hipótese de que trust é uma suitcase word, pois uma análise dos seus registros de citações mostrou que trust é estudado por muitas disciplinas da ciência, e além disso, mapas de co-ocorrência de palavraschaves mostraram que os significados de trust nas disciplinas podem ser diferentes. Para verificar a segunda hipótese, nós propusemos um framework com três componentes: 1) um \'modelo suitcase\' para identificar diferentes significados de trust, que é o objetivo principal deste trabalho, 2) um procedimento para detalhar as situações de trust em componentes do modelo suitcase, e 3) um modelo de decisão comportamental sobre confiança, que foi necessário para nossa simulação, uma vez que trust e controle tem papéis complementares no desenvolvimento da confiança, e consequentemente, na exibição de um comportamento de confiança que pode levar à cooperação. No nosso modelo, a decisão de trust o trustee (aquele a quem trust é direcionada) depende da capacidade do trustor (aquele que direciona trust) em aceitar riscos (= trustfulness), e da avaliação do interesse e da capacidade do trustee em agir como o esperado (= trustworthiness). De uma maneira prática, trustworthiness foi considerada como uma função das evidências esperadas e coletadas em cada situação. Nós propusemos um formalismo para o novo modelo, e depois replicamos um simulador chamado PlayGround para depois modificá-lo e incorporar o modelo suitcase. O novo simulador, o PlayGround 2.0, foi utilizado para rodar um estudo de caso utilizando situações comuns em projetos de Citizen Science. Nosso maior objetivo foi testar a hipótese de que trust poderia ser simulada em uma perspectiva de suitcase. Uma simulação bem-sucedida plotaria os agentes em campo reagindo diferentemente de acordo com as situações apresentadas. Os resultados foram como esperados, o que demonstrou a utilidade abrangente do nosso modelo, com potencial para lidar com diferentes significados de trust no contexto dos projetos de Ciência Cidadã para Biodiversidade, ou em outros contextos.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-05-02T18:26:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Giovanni Bohn Machado_.pdf: 709884 bytes, checksum: 158aa78cbb0c4777d402b3995177f6a6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-02T18:26:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Giovanni Bohn Machado_.pdf: 709884 bytes, checksum: 158aa78cbb0c4777d402b3995177f6a6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-10 / Nenhuma / Outsourcing is a reality in the globalized world. In Brazil, it was recently approved by the National Congress the so-called "law of outsourcing," which in practice defines more flexible rules for organizations to outsource their core activity – something that used to be prohibited. This flexibility can lead organizations to obtain competitive advantage due to the costs associated with the outsourcing tending to be lower. However, there are issues relating to the products quality and services that must be taken when the decision is taken by managers. The outsourcing decision is still less explored in the academic environment. The majority of studies related to decision-making tend to analyze institutional and cognitive issues differently. However, there are few studies correlating the two areas, when taking into consideration the behavioral aspects of the individual and the institutional structure of their organizations. The present research aims to validate a research instrument that aims to measure the institutional and behavioral variables that influence outsourcing decision. A survey was performed through a questionnaire composed of 75 questions capable of measuring five major constructs: locus of control, monitoring practices, bandwagon effect for outsourcing, cost and quality dynamics and perception of cost and quality mandate. The instrument was created by Ph.D. David Caleb Hall from Wright State University in the United States. A sample of 204 respondents was collected. Statistical tests were performed to validate the scale, among them, convergent validity tests such as the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), composite reliability (CR), Cronbach's alpha (CA), average variance extracted (AVE). Also, tests were performed to check the discriminant validity. The general results partially achieved the goal of this work. More than 50% of the questions had to be eliminated, as a result of sampling error, little experience of the participants in the situations described, problems in understanding of the issues, institutional issues, and personality trait of the respondents.

Trust is a social phenomenon fundamental to relationships and a building block of our society. People experience it daily, such as in a borrowing between friends, in an e-commerce transaction, in a mother-son relationship, in a connection between autonomous agents, or to show faith in God (\"In God we trust\"). In the specific case of Biodiversity domain, trust is one of the pillars of the Citizen Science projects, which are helping to solve the lack of biodiversity data by engaging citizens to work as volunteers to address this problem. Measuring and simulating levels of trust on these projects might reveal or anticipate losses; for example, the disposal of data because a deficit of trust on the technical capacity of the volunteers, opening an opportunity to manage and improve it. However, trust is a hard concept to define. The word \'trust\' may carry different meanings, such as honesty, security, integrity, competence, etc. and this is an attribute of the \'suitcase words\'. Adopting the \'suitcase\' perspective would change the way as we define, model, and simulate trust, once people would identify, decode, and simulate many meanings of trust with a single approach. In this scenario, the main objective of our research was to verify the hypotheses 1) that trust is a suitcase word, and 2) that trust can be modeled and simulated under a suitcase word perspective. A network analysis of the Web of Science citation database was able to confirm the hypothesis that trust is a suitcase word, since a distribution analysis of articles showed that trust occurs across a wide range of disciplines, and since co-occurrence maps of keywords showed that trust meanings from these disciplines may be significantly different. To verify the second hypothesis, we proposed a framework to manage trust with three components: 1) a suitcase model to identify different meanings of trust, which is the main purpose of this work, 2) a procedure to detail trust situations in terms of the suitcase model, and 3) a behavioral decision model of confidence, which was required for our simulation, since trust and control play complementary roles in the development of confidence, and consequently, to generate a confident behavior to cooperate. In our suitcase model the decision to trust (or distrust) the trustee depends on the trustors\' general capacity to take risks (= trustfulness) and on the assessment of trustee\'s interests and capacity to behavior as the trustor expects (= trustworthiness). In a practical and workable way, trustworthiness was considered a function of the trustor\'s expectations (expected evidence) and the trustee\'s previous behavior (collected evidence) for each situation. We proposed a formalism to the suitcase model, and then replicated the PlayGround simulator to modify it and incorporate our model. The new simulator, the PlayGround 2.0, was used to run a case study using trust situations from Citizen Science projects. Our main goal with this case study was to test the hypothesis that trust can be simulated under a suitcase perspective. A successful simulation would plot agents in the field reacting differently according to each situation. Results were as expected, what demonstrated the comprehensive utility of our model, with potential to handle different meanings of trust in the context of Citizen Science in the Biodiversity domain. / Trust, que em português não possui uma tradução que reflita a sua complexidade, é um fenômeno fundamental para os relacionamentos e uma peça fundamental da nossa sociedade. Trust é vivenciada diariamente pelas pessoas, seja em um empréstimo entre amigos, em uma transação de comércio eletrônico, na relação entra uma mãe e um filho, na conexão entre agentes autônomos, ou para demonstrar a nossa fé. No caso específico da ciência da Biodiversidade, trust é um dos pilares dos projetos de Ciência Cidadã, que ajudam a resolver a falta de dados de biodiversidade engajando cidadãos para trabalhar como voluntários para solucionar o problema. Medir e simular trust nestes projetos pode revelar ou antecipar perdas, por exemplo, o descarte de dados devido à falta de trust na capacidade técnica dos voluntários, abrindo oportunidades para sua gestão e incentivo. Contudo, trust é um conceito difícil de definir. A palavra pode carregar muitos significados, tais como honestidade, segurança, integridade, competência, etc., e esta é uma característica das suitcase words (palavras-mala). Adotar uma perspectiva de suitcase pode mudar a maneira como definimos, modelamos e simulamos trust, pois as pessoas poderiam identificar, decodificar, e simular vários significados de trust com uma única abordagem. Neste cenário, o objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi verificar as hipóteses de que 1) trust é uma suitcase word e de que 2) trust pode ser modelada e simulada em uma perspectiva de suitcase com potencial para manipulação de diferentes significados. Uma análise de distribuição utilizando o banco de dados Web of Science foi suficiente para confirmar a primeira hipótese de que trust é uma suitcase word, pois uma análise dos seus registros de citações mostrou que trust é estudado por muitas disciplinas da ciência, e além disso, mapas de co-ocorrência de palavraschaves mostraram que os significados de trust nas disciplinas podem ser diferentes. Para verificar a segunda hipótese, nós propusemos um framework com três componentes: 1) um \'modelo suitcase\' para identificar diferentes significados de trust, que é o objetivo principal deste trabalho, 2) um procedimento para detalhar as situações de trust em componentes do modelo suitcase, e 3) um modelo de decisão comportamental sobre confiança, que foi necessário para nossa simulação, uma vez que trust e controle tem papéis complementares no desenvolvimento da confiança, e consequentemente, na exibição de um comportamento de confiança que pode levar à cooperação. No nosso modelo, a decisão de trust o trustee (aquele a quem trust é direcionada) depende da capacidade do trustor (aquele que direciona trust) em aceitar riscos (= trustfulness), e da avaliação do interesse e da capacidade do trustee em agir como o esperado (= trustworthiness). De uma maneira prática, trustworthiness foi considerada como uma função das evidências esperadas e coletadas em cada situação. Nós propusemos um formalismo para o novo modelo, e depois replicamos um simulador chamado PlayGround para depois modificá-lo e incorporar o modelo suitcase. O novo simulador, o PlayGround 2.0, foi utilizado para rodar um estudo de caso utilizando situações comuns em projetos de Citizen Science. Nosso maior objetivo foi testar a hipótese de que trust poderia ser simulada em uma perspectiva de suitcase. Uma simulação bem-sucedida plotaria os agentes em campo reagindo diferentemente de acordo com as situações apresentadas. Os resultados foram como esperados, o que demonstrou a utilidade abrangente do nosso modelo, com potencial para lidar com diferentes significados de trust no contexto dos projetos de Ciência Cidadã para Biodiversidade, ou em outros contextos.

Melioration can be a factor contributing to behavioral addiction. In this study, 76 university undergraduates operated a "money machine" by selecting between choices that corresponded to maximization and melioration. Participants initially made choices consistent with a strategy of melioration and demonstrated significantly greater variability in choice behavior when visual cues were presented aimed at exposing the internality (or consequence) of the choice situation. Removal of the visual cues resulted in a return to lower responding. Visual cues may aid in interrupting the behavioral addiction pattern by limiting exclusive use of a melioration choice strategy. Methods of restructuring and experimentation with choice allocations are suggested as possible alternatives to melioration.

While popular management literature discusses ‘exit’ as a successful outcome of entrepreneurship, empirical research have frequently considered exit as a negative outcome. This dissertation suggests that exit may be the outcome of both failing and successful venturing. Using advanced research designs and high-quality data that follow over 7,000 individual entrepreneurs and the evolution of their firms for 14 years, I show that while the resources and skills of entrepreneurs affect their possibilities to stay in business, exit is to a considerable extent a voluntary decision that entrepreneurs take if the performance of their venture is less than what they aspired to. The empirical evidence presented in the dissertation indicates that the high failure rates among new firms reported in both the academic and popular press may be, at least partially, misinterpreted positive exit decisions rather than failures. The dissertation contains five empirical studies that provide theoretical and empirical contributions to the research fields of entrepreneurship and organization studies. Taken together, the dissertation represents a comprehensive picture of entrepreneurial exit that highlights the importance of entrepreneur(s)’ skills and experiences, as well as contextual factors such as industry structure, geography, and social interaction among similar entrepreneurs. / <p>Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2009, Härtill 5 appendix</p>

Cette thèse est organisée en trois chapitres. Chaque article analyse les déviations systématiques des décideurs par rapport aux prédictions économiques classiques dans certaines expériences bien connues. Les agents s’écartent de la voie optimale et explorent ou exploitent de manière excessive dans le problème du bandit manchot, ils exigent des taux d’intérêt bien plus élevés par rapport aux taux du marché financier afin de reporter leurs dépenses lorsqu’ils prennent des décisions de choix intertemporel, et ils ne se contentent pas de recevoir des petites sommes d’argent, même si, objectivement, ils devraient accepter cette offre, dans des expériences de négociation comme le jeu de l’ultimatum. Ces soi-disant «irrégularités» sont documentées dans les trois essais de thèse. Le essaies représentent une première étape afin de formuler des stratégies adaptées au profile psychologique de chaque individu, nécessaires pour surmonter les biais de décision. / This dissertation is organized in three chapters. Each chapter analyzes decision makers’ systematic deviations from economic predictions in well-known experiments. People deviate from the optimal path and excessively explore or exploit in n-armed bandit games, demand interest rates well above financial market averages in order to defer consumption in intertemporal choice settings, and do not settle for receiving small amounts of money, even though they would be better off objectively, in bargaining games such as the ultimatum game. Such “irregularities” are documented in the three dissertation essays. The essays are intended as a first step to formulate individual specific, customized decision aids, useful to overcome such decision biases.

Recent studies find that mutual funds exhibit differential and persistent performance which is frequently attributed to superior managerial decision making. We extend the literature by examining the impact of the fund's management structure on performance outcomes. Specifically, we examine directly whether superior outcomes, in terms of risk-adjusted returns, may be explained by behavioral decision making theory that asserts that teams make better decisions than individuals. Empirical results are consistent with the classical decision making theory and the efficient market hypothesis.

In 1979 Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky created the prospect theory. It became an accepted and appropriate theory in explaining decision making under risk. The prospect theory has been one of the most cited articles in economics and Kahneman received the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences as a result of the creation and development of the theory. Therefore the prospect theory is considered to be more suitable compared to the previously accepted theory, the expected utility theory. Following the prospect theory, researchers have utilized it to describe individual but also corporate management decision making when faced with risk. In this thesis the authors will focus on the latter. Despite the prospect theory being a well-accepted theory, there have been several critics due to its limitations and Audia and Greve (2006) are one of these critics. Their study suggested that corporations under threat, i.e. small firms with low returns, act risk averse. The findings of Audia and Greve (2006) violate the prospect theory when considering small firms that have below target returns. They tested the theory on an industry that has the characteristics of having relatively high proportions of tangible assets. Audia and Greve (2006) also proposed that a similar conclusion could be drawn if tested on an industry characterized by having a high level of intangible assets. This thesis examines the applicability of the prospect theory in the Swedish automotive industry and staffing and recruitment industry. The characteristics of the two industries are that the automotive industry has a high proportion of tangible assets and the staffing and recruitment industry has a high level of intangibles. The authors test if the prospect theory can be used to describe the decision making of both industries but also test the theory on small and large firms. Following the results of this paper we show that the prospect theory can be applied to the Swedish automotive industry and staffing and recruitment industry, characterized by having high levels of tangible assets and intangible assets respectively. The theory can also be used to explain decision making under risk for small firms within both industries and large firms within the automotive industry. Even though the prospect theory was originally tested on individuals, the conclusion can be drawn that the prospect theory once again prevails as an explanation of the decision making in the management of corporations. It can describe the decision making of firms in the two industries having characteristics of different asset tangibility and for firms of different size.

Beeinflussen Emotionen ökonomische Entscheidungen? Können Emotionen einen strategischen Wert in Markteintrittsentscheidungen haben? Die vorliegende Doktorarbeit verfolgt einen interdisziplinären und experimentellen Ansatz um diese Fragen zu adressieren. Relevante Literatur und theoretische Modelle aus den Bereichen der Psychologie, den Neurowissenschaften und der Ökonomie werden dargestellt und diskutiert. Zwei anreizkompatible Experimente mit Unternehmern und Studenten wurden durchgeführt mit dem Ziel zu untersuchen, inwiefern induzierte Freude sowie Angst (i) individuelle Risikopräferenzen und (ii) Markteintrittsentscheidungen beeinflussen. Freude und Angst wurden mit Hilfe von ausführlich validierten Videoclips im Labor induziert. Während kein systematischer Einfluss von induzierten Emotionen auf Risikopräferenzen festgestellt werden kann, wird ein strategischer Wert von Emotionen sichtbar. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass Menschen Informationen über die Emotionen von anderen Personen zur Koordination nutzen. Schließlich werden Implikationen und Limitationen diskutiert. / Do specific emotions influence economic decisions? Can emotions be of strategic value in market entry decisions? This dissertation takes an interdisciplinary and experimentalist’s approach to address these questions. Relevant literature and models from standard psychology, neuroscience, and economics are synthesized and discussed. Two incentive compatible experiments conducted with entrepreneurs and students examine whether induced happiness and fear (i) influence risk taking behavior and (ii) market entry decisions. Happiness and fear are induced with film clips validated in an extensive laboratory test. We can conclude that although risk preferences are not systematically influenced by induced emotions; there is strategic value of emotions. Specifically, the findings indicate that people use the information about others’ emotional states to coordinate. Limitations and implications are discussed.