多項式回歸模型可用來模擬賽馬過程。不同研究者對模型中馬匹的效用的分佈採取不同的假設，包括指數分佈，它與Harville 模型（Harville, 1973）相同，伽馬分佈（Stern, 1990）和正態分佈（Henery, 1981）。Harville 模型無法模擬賽馬過程中競爭第二位和第三位等非冠軍位置時增加的隨機性（Benter, 1994）。Stern 模型假設效用服從形狀參數大於一的伽馬分佈，Henery 模型假設效用服從正態分佈。Bacon-Shone，Lo 和 Busche（1992），Lo 和 Bacon-Shone（1994）和 Lo（1994）研究證明了相較於Harville 模型，這兩個模型能更好地模擬賽馬過程。本文利用賽馬歷史數據，採用貝葉斯方法對賽馬結果中馬匹勝出的概率進行預測。本文假設效用服從伽馬分佈。本文針對多項式回歸模型，提出一個在Metropolis-Hastings 抽樣方法中選擇提議分佈的簡便方法。此方法由Scott（2008）首次提出。我們在似然函數中加入服從伽馬分佈的效用作為潛變量。通過將服從伽馬分佈的效用變換成一個服從Mihram（1975）所描述的廣義極值分佈的隨機變量，我們得到一個線性回歸模型。由此線性模型我們可得到最小二乘估計，本文亦討論最小二乘估計的漸進抽樣分佈。我們利用此估計的方差得到Metropolis-Hastings 抽樣方法中的提議分佈。最後，我們可以得到回歸參數的後驗分佈樣本。本文用香港賽馬數據做模擬賽馬投資以檢驗本文提出的估計方法。 / In multinomial regression of racetrack betting, dierent distributions of utilities have been proposed: exponential distribution which is equivalent to Harville’s model (Harville, 1973), gamma distribution (Stern, 1990) and normal distribution (Henery, 1981). Harville’s model has the drawback that it ignores the increasing randomness of the competitions for the second and third place (Benter, 1994). The Stern’s model using gamma utilities with shape parameter greater than 1 and the Henery’s model using normal utilities have been shown to produce a better t (Bacon-Shone, Lo and Busche, 1992; Lo and Bacon-Shone, 1994; Lo, 1994). In this thesis, we use the Bayesian methodology to provide prediction on the winning probabilities of horses with the historical observed data. The gamma utility is adopted throughout the thesis. In this thesis, a convenient method of selecting Metropolis-Hastings proposal distributions for multinomial models is developed. A similar method is rst exploited by Scott (2008). We augment the gamma distributed utilities in the likelihood as latent variables. The gamma utility is transformed to a variable that follows generalized extreme value distribution described by Mihram (1975) through which we get a linear regression model. Least squares estimate of the parameters is easily obtained from this linear model. The asymptotic sampling distribution of the least squares estimate is discussed. The Metropolis-Hastings proposal distribution is generated conditioning on the variance of the estimator. Finally, samples from the posterior distribution of regression parameters are obtained. The proposed method is tested through betting simulations using data from Hong Kong horse racing market. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Xu, Wenjun. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 46-48). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Hong Kong Horse Racing Market and Models in Horse Racing --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Hong Kong Horse Racing Market --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- Models in Horse Racing --- p.6 / Chapter 3 --- Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm in Multinomial Regression with Gamma Utilities --- p.10 / Chapter 3.1 --- Notations and Posterior Distribution --- p.10 / Chapter 3.2 --- Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm --- p.11 / Chapter 4 --- Application --- p.15 / Chapter 4.1 --- Variables --- p.16 / Chapter 4.2 --- Markov Chain Simulation --- p.17 / Chapter 4.3 --- Model Selection --- p.27 / Chapter 4.4 --- Estimation Result --- p.31 / Chapter 4.5 --- Betting Strategies and Comparisons --- p.33 / Chapter 5 --- Conclusion --- p.41 / Appendix A --- p.43 / Appendix B --- p.44 / Bibliography --- p.46

<p>Många berättar om de ekonomiska vinster de gjort på börsen under senaste åren, och hur lätt pengarna rullat in på deras konton. Med en liten inblick i finansmarknaden och genom att titta på A-ekonomi då och då så blir i stort sett alla aktieaffärer lyckade. Vi hör dock sällan någon berätta om folks dåliga aktieaffärer. Börsen verkar med andra ord vara en guldgruva för dem som investerar där. Med hjälp av dyra aktierekommendationer kan man göra ännu större vinster enligt en rad olika fondkommissionär. Betting är en trend som aldrig tycks ta slut. Även där påpekar spelbolagen hur lätt det är att ta hem vinster, bara man har lite kunskap blir man en vinnare. Och vem vill inte bli det?</p><p>Syftet med denna uppsats är att reda ut nämnda påstående. Är det så lätt som visa försöker påvisa att öka sina likvida medel med hjälp av en smärre aktiekunskap? Denna studie försöker visa hur det egentligen ligger till i denna fråga. Vem vinner när kunskap ställs mot slump i spel- och aktievärlden?</p><p>I denna uppsats vill vi undersöka likheterna av slumpens betydelse vid kortsiktiga placeringar i aktier och spel på multibet. Med hjälp av Random Walk-teorin vill vi se om det finns likheter mellan att köpa aktier på börsen och att spela på multibet.</p><p>För att få en bredare kunskap inom detta ämne så har vi byggt upp en teoridel i denna uppsats som tar upp elementära och relevanta grundstenar inom dessa ämnen. Det dyker upp en rad olika frågetecken under resans gång, men dessa försöker vi besvara så gott det går ännu längre fram i uppsatsen.</p><p>De slutsatser vi kommit fram till med hjälp av vår undersökning är att slumpen har en stor betydelse på aktie- respektive spelmarknaden. Men däremot tror vi inte att den tekniska och fundamentala analysen ska förkastas, den kan i viss mån vara till hjälp.</p>

Många berättar om de ekonomiska vinster de gjort på börsen under senaste åren, och hur lätt pengarna rullat in på deras konton. Med en liten inblick i finansmarknaden och genom att titta på A-ekonomi då och då så blir i stort sett alla aktieaffärer lyckade. Vi hör dock sällan någon berätta om folks dåliga aktieaffärer. Börsen verkar med andra ord vara en guldgruva för dem som investerar där. Med hjälp av dyra aktierekommendationer kan man göra ännu större vinster enligt en rad olika fondkommissionär. Betting är en trend som aldrig tycks ta slut. Även där påpekar spelbolagen hur lätt det är att ta hem vinster, bara man har lite kunskap blir man en vinnare. Och vem vill inte bli det? Syftet med denna uppsats är att reda ut nämnda påstående. Är det så lätt som visa försöker påvisa att öka sina likvida medel med hjälp av en smärre aktiekunskap? Denna studie försöker visa hur det egentligen ligger till i denna fråga. Vem vinner när kunskap ställs mot slump i spel- och aktievärlden? I denna uppsats vill vi undersöka likheterna av slumpens betydelse vid kortsiktiga placeringar i aktier och spel på multibet. Med hjälp av Random Walk-teorin vill vi se om det finns likheter mellan att köpa aktier på börsen och att spela på multibet. För att få en bredare kunskap inom detta ämne så har vi byggt upp en teoridel i denna uppsats som tar upp elementära och relevanta grundstenar inom dessa ämnen. Det dyker upp en rad olika frågetecken under resans gång, men dessa försöker vi besvara så gott det går ännu längre fram i uppsatsen. De slutsatser vi kommit fram till med hjälp av vår undersökning är att slumpen har en stor betydelse på aktie- respektive spelmarknaden. Men däremot tror vi inte att den tekniska och fundamentala analysen ska förkastas, den kan i viss mån vara till hjälp.

Syftet med denna studie var att svara på hur personer med ett icke aktivt spelberoende beskriver sin situation som spelberoende. Studien bygger på fem intervjuer som transkriberades och analyserades sedan med hjälp av en innehållsanalys. Analysen bygger på tidigare forskning och teorin the defining moment av Devine och Sparks (2014) samt Beckers (2006) avvikelseteori. Resultatet presenteras med hjälp av teman och kategorier. Studiens resultat visar att samtliga respondenter upplevde negativa konsekvenser till följd av spelandet. Konsekvenserna kunde visa sig ekonomiskt, hälsomässigt, socialt, arbetsmässigt samt påverkade även respondenternas närstående. Vidare framkom att samtliga respondenter ägnade en stor del av sin tid till att spela. Motivation var en stor faktor till att respondenterna till slut lyckades med sitt utträde ur spelberoendet. / The purpose of this study was to answer how people with a non-active gambling addiction described their situation as gambling addicts. The study is based on five interviews that were transcribed and then analyzed using a content analysis. The analysis is based on previous research and the theory the defining moment by Devine and Sparks (2014) aswell as Becker (2006) theory about outsiders. The result is presented with the help of themes and categories. The study results show that all respondents experienced negative consequences as a result of gambling. The consequences could prove economically, health, social, at the workplace and also affected the respondents relatives. Furthermore, it was found that all respondents spent a great deal of their time playing. Motivation was a major factor in the fact that the respondents eventually managed to withdraw from the game addiction.

This is a degree project made by three students at the Linnéuniversity in Kalmar with thequalitative method. The work discusses the topic of casino- and betting company´s socialsustainability and builds on previous research. The project attempts to cover the gaps thathave occurred after a study from Ekström, Hultgren and Johansson (2021) “Gamblingcompanies are digging for gold at the same time as sustainability requirements areincreasing”. The core of the work is to analyze how young private savers between the ages of20 to 24 relate to casino- and betting companies when it comes to investing using commoneconomic- and philosophical theories. The study's research question is: “how do youngprivate savers relate to casino- and betting companies, and how do young private savers thinkin their decision-making processes about socially sustainable investments?”. The workdiscusses how the decision process behind the decisions and how ethics and morality comeinto play. The legitimacy of the study is that in today's society, sustainability has become anincreasingly important part of our lifestyle. But social sustainability can easily beovershadowed by ecological sustainability, which in turn can lead to ignorance and that socialsustainability gets neglected. From there, it is important to do academic studies in the subject.The study concludes that 20-24 year olds have no problem navigating their decisions basedon their ethics and morals. However, they have difficulties to describe it in theoretical termsin the aspects of social sustainability. Furthermore the young private savers have anunderstanding of the underlying topic and have no issues discussing it. For them, thedimension of social sustainability falls into the concept of sustainability. The study alsoconcludes that 20-24 year old young private savers think that it is the savers responsibility forsocially sustainable investments and everyone should take responsibility for what they investin.

Online sports betting is an industry that has seen a huge surge in popularity in the US since 2018, and the companies behind this surge have enjoyed exponential increases in profits. Accompanying the increased interest in and profits of online sports gambling is a large spike in advertisements created by companies that offer online sports betting services. Although gambling is an activity that is recognized as highly addictive and potentially destructive for certain individuals, the companies that offer sports gambling services in the US face little to no government regulation in how they advertise their services. This study aimed to investigate the advertising narratives deployed by the four most popular online sports betting companies in the US (FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM) in terms of their frequency, using the precision afforded by the method of qualitative content analysis. Additionally, this study deployed semiotic analysis with the constructionist approach to representation and the concept of myth to examine how the most frequently used narratives in online sports betting advertisements draw on broader systems of meaning in order to persuade audiences. This study found that FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM most frequently used narratives of online betting and celebrity feature in their advertisements. Using semiotic analysis, this study found that the narratives of online betting and celebrity feature often translated to mythologized and often unrealistic depictions of sports betting which represented it as an activity that allowed sports bettors to align themselves on the same hierarchical level as professional athletes and Hollywood celebrities, while largely ignoring the risks that are inherently attached to gambling. The findings of this study stand as an exploratory accounting and examination of the currently unregulated advertising practices of the largest sports gambling companies in the US.

First chapter describes International Financial Markets. Second chapter describes market fundamental analysis. Third chapter describes market technical analysis and efficient market hypothesis testing. Fourth chapter discusses market psychological analysis. Fifth chapter encompasses other theoretical background to be used in application. Sixth chapter deals with application of fundamental and technical analysis on a tennis betting market having found parallels between the sports betting markets and financial markets.

Sociální prostředí jako rizikový faktor pro kurzovém sázení u sportovců léčících se v ambulanci pro gamblery zaměřuje na tři životní období klientů Poradny pro nelátkové závislosti Prevent. Obecně je problematika hazardního hraní v ČR velice aktuální téma. S regulací heren a novou ČR vystupuje do popředí problematika kurzového sázení. V 14 došlo k nárůstu podílu populace, která má zkušenosti s hazardní hrou. Nejvyšší nárůst (Mravčík et al., 2018) Cílem této práce je zmapovat a popsat sociální faktory, které měli přímý vliv na vznik a rozvoj závislosti na kurzovém sázení u sportovců léčících se v ambulantní léčbě. Práce se zaměřuje na tři životní období respondentů. Prvním zkoumaným životním obdobím období počátků sázení a první zkušenosti s hazardem, druhým životním obdobím je přechod z ní do závislosti a třetí ži respondenti rozhodli jít léčit. U všech třech etap života respondentů jsou mapovány a popsány veškeré sociální vlivy a interakce s Práce je založena na metodě kvalitativního výzkumu a vychází z zakotvené teorie a otevřeného kódování. Pro sběr dat byl použit polostrukturovaný rozhovor, který umožnil flexibilitu při samotné formulaci otázek a jejím případném doplnění dalšími otázkami a tím přesnějším získáním potřebných dat. Výzkumu se zúčastnilo celkem šest respondentů, kteří v té době byli...

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No. of bitstreams: 1 chamun_wwa_me_ia.pdf: 14005351 bytes, checksum: b5729b29bbb1c84acbda499288e5a402 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-28 / Submitted by Walter Willams Albrechet Chamun (wchamun@gmail.com) on 2018-06-05T07:49:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação NOME CORRIGIDO Walter Chamun (2).pdf: 15341156 bytes, checksum: 20bb59fe50c61984bd0998e7e739934f (MD5) / Este trabalho visa a construção de um protocolo pedagógico que ofereça estratégias para auxiliar cantores na transição entre os gêneros lírico, música de câmara brasileira e belting em português, além de apresentar um modelo de condicionamento pedagógico vocal baseado em conceitos de fisiologia da voz e de aproveitamento máximo da musculatura laríngea, emprestados da ciência da fisioterapia, uma vez que na área de voz ainda não há muitos trabalhos que norteiem quantidade e qualidade vocal relativos aos limites físicos de uso da musculatura envolvida no processo de cantar em qualquer que seja o gênero. Objetivos específicos: 1. Descrever cada gênero em seus conceitos estilísticos; 2. Construir e fundamentar o protocolo de estratégias de transição entre os gêneros; 3. Testar a aplicabilidade do protocolo com um sujeito. Com os resultados obtidos pelas avaliações de laringe e dados espectrográficos, notou-se uma melhora da performance da cantora analisada em todos os gêneros abordados, sendo verificados aumento de energia de espectro, maior regularidade de vibrato e um auto relato da cantora de mais facilidade de emissão em todos os gêneros. O trabalho possibilitou uma reflexão sobre as dificuldades dos cantores em suas práxis diárias no mercado de trabalho, trouxe novos dados para os professores referentes ao direcionamento das suas prática e construção pedagógica bem como avaliações qualitativa e quantitativa de exercícios vocais e sua aplicabilidade. / This work seeks to develop a pedagogical protocol with strategies that try to help singers transition across genres, namely lyrical, Brazilian chamber music and belting sung in Portuguese, besides offering a model for pedagogical vocal conditioning based on concepts of voice physiology and the best use of the laryngeal musculature, borrowed from the physical therapy science, since there are not enough studies within the voice field to scaffold vocal quantity and quality as to the physical limits of the muscles involved in singing whichever the genre. Specific aims: 1. stylistically describing the genres in the study; 2. designing and theoretically supporting the genre transition protocol; 3. trying out the protocol with a subject. The results from larynx analyses and spectrographic data revealed an improvement in the studied singer’s performance in all genres, with an increase in the energy of spectrum, higher vibrato evenness and the singer’s account of ease emission. The study cast a reflection on the difficulties singers find in their professional daily praxis, brought voice teachers new data regarding their practice and pedagogical decisions as well as quantitative and qualitative assessments of vocal exercises and their applicability.

The diploma thesis focuses on fixed-odds betting among male adolescents. In theoretical part, game as a whole life matter is explained, afterwards it aims closer to hazard game, especially fixed-odds betting. Regarding to children, multiple smaller studies, focused on risky behaviour on the internet and gambling, are introduced. Empirical part combines qualitative and quantitative approach. Interviews with betters jointly with the theory creates the base for hypothesises and questionnaire, which was distributed in five schools; three elementary and two high schools. Results of the empirical part are suggesting that adolescent boys have experiences with fixed-odds betting even though they are not of age. Frequently, the reason for betting is being involved in sport and the favourite form is on-line betting.