The energy retrofit of existing buildings has always been a challenging task to accomplish. The example of the Swecohuset building, proves how an integrated approach design between architectural and energetic aspects as well as the use of well-known and efficient technologies are key aspects to achieve the energy-saving goal. This work, in the first part describes the Swecohuset retrofit process, along with the reasons behind the choices which have led to the current result of a reduction by 2/3 of the energy need for space conditioning purposes. Then, in the second part, after a brief focus on the passive aspects which characterize the current energy performance of the building, it is carried out a feasibility analysis of an EWIS (external wall insulation system) by studying its interaction with a complex system as an optimization problem, with the main purpose of understanding the basis of the BPO and explore further building potentialities. / SIRen

This study examines the potential to conduct building thermal performance simulation (BPS) of unconditioned low-cost housing during the early design stages. By creating a set of regression models (meta-models) based on EnergyPlus simulations, this research aims to promote and simplify BPS in the building envelope design process. The meta-models can be used as tools adapted for three Brazilian cities: Curitiba, São Paulo and Manaus, providing decision support to designers by enabling rapid feedback that links early design decisions to the buildings thermal performance. The low-cost housing unit studied is a detached onestory house with an area of approximately 51m2, which includes two bedrooms, a combined kitchen and living room, and one bathroom. This representative configuration is based on collected data about the most common residence options in some Brazilian cities. This naturally ventilated residence is simulated in the Airflow Network module in EnergyPlus, which utilizes the average wind pressure coefficients provided by the software. The parametric simulations vary the house orientation, U-value, heat capacity and absorptance of external walls and the roof, the heat capacity of internal walls, the window-to-wall ratio, type of window (slider or casement), and the existence of horizontal and/or vertical shading devices with varying dimensions. The models predict the resulting total degree-hours of discomfort in a year due to heat and cold, based on comfort limits defined by the adaptive method for naturally ventilated residences according to ANSI ASHRAE Standard 55. The methodology consists of (a) analyzing a set of Brazilian low-cost housing projects and defining a geometric model that can represent it; (b) determining a list of design parameters relevant to thermal comfort and defining value ranges to be considered; (c) defining the input data for the 10.000 parametric simulations used to create and test the meta-models for each analyzed climate; (d) simulating thermal performance using Energy Plus; (e) using 60% of the simulated cases to develop the regression models; and (f) using the remaining 40% data to validate the meta-models. Except by Heat discomfort regression models for the cities of Curitiba and São Paulo the meta-models show R2 values superior to 0.9 indicating accurate predictions when compared to the discomfort predicted with the output data from EnergyPlus, the original simulation software. Meta-models application tests are performed and the meta-models show great potential to guide designers decisions during the early design. / Esta pesquisa avalia as potencialidades do uso de simulações do desempenho térmico (SDT) nas etapas iniciais de projetos de habitações de interesse social (HIS) não condicionadas artificialmente. Busca-se promover e simplificar o uso de SDT no processo de projeto da envolvente de edificações através da criação de modelos de regressão baseados em simulações robustas através do software EnergyPlus. Os meta-modelos são adaptados ao clima de três cidades brasileiras: Curitiba, São Paulo e Manaus, e permitem uma rápida verificação do desconforto térmico nas edificações podendo ser usados como ferramentas de suporte às decisões de projeto nas etapas iniciais. A HIS considerada corresponde a uma unidade térrea com aproximadamente 51m2, composta por dois quartos, um banheiro e cozinha integrada à sala de jantar. Esta configuração é baseada em um conjunto de projetos representativos coletados em algumas cidades brasileiras (como São Paulo, Curitiba e Manaus). Estas habitações naturalmente ventiladas são simuladas pelo módulo Airflow Network utilizando o coeficiente médio de pressão fornecido pelo EnergyPlus. As simulações consideram a parametrização da orientação da edificação, transmitância térmica (U), capacidade térmica (Ct) e absortância () das paredes externas e cobertura; Ct e U das paredes internas; relação entre área de janela e área da parede; tipo da janela (basculante ou de correr); existência e dimensão de dispositivos verticais e horizontais de sombreamento. Os meta-modelos desenvolvidos fornecem a predição anual dos graus-hora de desconforto por frio e calor, calculados com base nos limites de conforto definidos pelo método adaptativo para residências naturalmente ventiladas (ANSI ASHRAE, 2013). A metodologia aplicada consiste em: (a) análise de um grupo de projetos de HIS brasileiras e definição de um modelo geométrico que os represente; (b) definição dos parâmetros relevantes ao conforto térmico, assim como seus intervalos de variação; (c) definição dos dados de entrada para as 10.000 simulações paramétricas utilizadas na criação e teste de confiabilidade dos meta-modelos para cada clima analisado; (d) simulação do desempenho térmico por meio do software EnergyPlus; (e) utilização de 60% dos casos simulados para o desenvolvimento dos modelos de regressão; e (f) uso dos 40% dos dados restantes para testar a confiabilidade do modelo. Exceto pelos modelos para predição do desconforto por calor para Curitiba e São Paulo, os demais meta-modelos apresentaram valores de R2 superiores a 0.9, indicando boa adequação das predições de desconforto dos modelos gerados ao desconforto calculado com base no resultado das simulações no EnergyPlus. Um teste de aplicação dos meta-modelos foi realizado, demonstrando seu grande potencial para guiar os projetistas nas decisões tomadas durante as etapas inicias de projeto.

The façade retrofit market faces some key barriers: the selection of performance criteria and the reliability of the performance data. On the demand side, the problem is approached from an investment perspective which creates "split incentives" between the stakeholders who pay for the investment and those who benefit from it. On the supply side, there is an inherent complexity in modeling these options because of the incomplete knowledge of the physical and cost parameters involved in the performance evaluation. The thermal comfort of the building occupant is an important component of the retrofit performance assessment. This research attempts to fill a gap in the approach to façade retrofit decision by 1) quantifying uncertainties in these three dimensions of performance, 2) incorporating new financing models available in the retrofit market, 3) considering the target and risk attitude of the decision maker. The methodology proposed in this research integrates key indicators for delivery process, environmental performance, and investment performance. The purpose is to provide a methodological framework for performance evaluation. A residential case study is conducted to test the proposed framework. Three retrofit scenarios including the financing structure are examined. Each façade retrofit scenario is then evaluated based on the level of confidence to meet or exceed a specific target improvement for the Net Present Value and the risk to fall below a minimum improvement threshold. The case study results confirm that risk must be considered for more reliable façade retrofit decision-making. Research findings point to further research needed to expand the understanding of the interdependencies among uncertain parameters.

Current global efforts for energy conservation and optimization are focused on improvements in energy supply and production systems, and on encouraging the adoption of energy-efficient devices and equipment. However, systematic assessments of economic and technical implications when adopting energy-efficient alternative systems in buildings have not yet been explored thoroughly. The uncertainty about the consequences of investing in alternative energy-efficient systems has led to a prolonged utilization of obsolete building systems (underperforming HVAC systems, inefficient lighting systems, badly maintained and equipment, and so forth). This has led to overall poor energy efficiency, creating considerable burden on the building operation budget. This research discusses the procedure for formulating an investment strategy to improve existing building energy performance. The approach is suitable for large building portfolios where a plethora of potential refurbishment interventions can be considered. This makes our approach especially suited for use on university campuses and most of this report will focus on that particular application utilization protocols especially for use on campuses. This investment model only looks at the energy related savings versus investments; it is well understood that the ultimate selection of the optimal set of improvement options of a portfolio will be determined by additional considerations, such as overall value, occupant satisfaction, productivity improvements, aesthetics, etc. Nevertheless, many campus managers are confronted with the question how much energy they can save with a given investment amount. This is exactly what our approach helps to answer. The investment optimization strategy is implemented in software "InvEnergy," which systematically calculates the costs and benefits of all possible building-technology pairings, taking uncertainties in the saving/investment calculations and estimates into account. This tool empowers decision makers in facility management to make complex investment decisions during continuous building commissioning.

This study examines the potential to conduct building thermal performance simulation (BPS) of unconditioned low-cost housing during the early design stages. By creating a set of regression models (meta-models) based on EnergyPlus simulations, this research aims to promote and simplify BPS in the building envelope design process. The meta-models can be used as tools adapted for three Brazilian cities: Curitiba, São Paulo and Manaus, providing decision support to designers by enabling rapid feedback that links early design decisions to the buildings thermal performance. The low-cost housing unit studied is a detached onestory house with an area of approximately 51m2, which includes two bedrooms, a combined kitchen and living room, and one bathroom. This representative configuration is based on collected data about the most common residence options in some Brazilian cities. This naturally ventilated residence is simulated in the Airflow Network module in EnergyPlus, which utilizes the average wind pressure coefficients provided by the software. The parametric simulations vary the house orientation, U-value, heat capacity and absorptance of external walls and the roof, the heat capacity of internal walls, the window-to-wall ratio, type of window (slider or casement), and the existence of horizontal and/or vertical shading devices with varying dimensions. The models predict the resulting total degree-hours of discomfort in a year due to heat and cold, based on comfort limits defined by the adaptive method for naturally ventilated residences according to ANSI ASHRAE Standard 55. The methodology consists of (a) analyzing a set of Brazilian low-cost housing projects and defining a geometric model that can represent it; (b) determining a list of design parameters relevant to thermal comfort and defining value ranges to be considered; (c) defining the input data for the 10.000 parametric simulations used to create and test the meta-models for each analyzed climate; (d) simulating thermal performance using Energy Plus; (e) using 60% of the simulated cases to develop the regression models; and (f) using the remaining 40% data to validate the meta-models. Except by Heat discomfort regression models for the cities of Curitiba and São Paulo the meta-models show R2 values superior to 0.9 indicating accurate predictions when compared to the discomfort predicted with the output data from EnergyPlus, the original simulation software. Meta-models application tests are performed and the meta-models show great potential to guide designers decisions during the early design. / Esta pesquisa avalia as potencialidades do uso de simulações do desempenho térmico (SDT) nas etapas iniciais de projetos de habitações de interesse social (HIS) não condicionadas artificialmente. Busca-se promover e simplificar o uso de SDT no processo de projeto da envolvente de edificações através da criação de modelos de regressão baseados em simulações robustas através do software EnergyPlus. Os meta-modelos são adaptados ao clima de três cidades brasileiras: Curitiba, São Paulo e Manaus, e permitem uma rápida verificação do desconforto térmico nas edificações podendo ser usados como ferramentas de suporte às decisões de projeto nas etapas iniciais. A HIS considerada corresponde a uma unidade térrea com aproximadamente 51m2, composta por dois quartos, um banheiro e cozinha integrada à sala de jantar. Esta configuração é baseada em um conjunto de projetos representativos coletados em algumas cidades brasileiras (como São Paulo, Curitiba e Manaus). Estas habitações naturalmente ventiladas são simuladas pelo módulo Airflow Network utilizando o coeficiente médio de pressão fornecido pelo EnergyPlus. As simulações consideram a parametrização da orientação da edificação, transmitância térmica (U), capacidade térmica (Ct) e absortância () das paredes externas e cobertura; Ct e U das paredes internas; relação entre área de janela e área da parede; tipo da janela (basculante ou de correr); existência e dimensão de dispositivos verticais e horizontais de sombreamento. Os meta-modelos desenvolvidos fornecem a predição anual dos graus-hora de desconforto por frio e calor, calculados com base nos limites de conforto definidos pelo método adaptativo para residências naturalmente ventiladas (ANSI ASHRAE, 2013). A metodologia aplicada consiste em: (a) análise de um grupo de projetos de HIS brasileiras e definição de um modelo geométrico que os represente; (b) definição dos parâmetros relevantes ao conforto térmico, assim como seus intervalos de variação; (c) definição dos dados de entrada para as 10.000 simulações paramétricas utilizadas na criação e teste de confiabilidade dos meta-modelos para cada clima analisado; (d) simulação do desempenho térmico por meio do software EnergyPlus; (e) utilização de 60% dos casos simulados para o desenvolvimento dos modelos de regressão; e (f) uso dos 40% dos dados restantes para testar a confiabilidade do modelo. Exceto pelos modelos para predição do desconforto por calor para Curitiba e São Paulo, os demais meta-modelos apresentaram valores de R2 superiores a 0.9, indicando boa adequação das predições de desconforto dos modelos gerados ao desconforto calculado com base no resultado das simulações no EnergyPlus. Um teste de aplicação dos meta-modelos foi realizado, demonstrando seu grande potencial para guiar os projetistas nas decisões tomadas durante as etapas inicias de projeto.

Daylight availability in buildings faces numerous challenges in a world where energy efficiency,thermal comfort, and sustainability take center stage. Daylight is well-known for its role in reducingartificial lighting consumption and enhancing the well-being and performance of building occupants.However, a crucial issue arises with the incorporation of large windows to introduce natural light, asthis may compromise the thermal efficiency of a room. Designers must strike a delicate balancebetween optimizing daylight and ensuring thermal comfort to achieve energy-efficient buildings. Asthe global population continues to grow and urban areas become more densely populated, this issuebecomes increasingly complex and sensitive to address. Consequently, it is becoming urgent toscrutinize the effectiveness in addressing these challenges. When assessing daylight in various rooms, prevailing requirements in different regulations orstandards tend to mix all types of buildings. The author contends that a more nuanced and tailoredapproach should be adopted, depending on the type of building and the intended room usage. Whilemost studies conducted in Sweden focus on analyzing residential buildings, this master’s Thesis shiftsits focus to Swedish university buildings. The objective is to compare the existing requirement levelswith students' subjective perceptions of daylight quality, with the aim of determining whether thecurrent standards are adequate or should be adjusted. The study centers around a specific building comprising 21 distinct study spaces located at the KTHcampus in Stockholm, Sweden. Each of these spaces possessed unique characteristics that are relevantto the research. To facilitate this investigation, various modeling and daylight simulation tools wereemployed, including Rhinoceros 7, Ladybug Tools, and other editing software such as Microsoft Wordand Adobe illustrator. Ladybug relies on Radiance, a validated daylight simulation engine, for analyzingstatic and dynamic daylight metrics. This thesis, supported by survey and simulation results, illustrates that students studying in universitybuildings have a significantly higher demand for natural light compared to the levels established bySwedish regulations. These findings underscore the imperative need for comprehensive research onthe actual requirements of occupants in university buildings, with the aim of revising and modernizingthe existing Swedish regulations. The potential differentiation in standards between residential anduniversity buildings warrants further exploration. / Dagsljusautonomin i byggnader står inför flera utmaningar i en värld där energieffektivitet, termiskkomfort och hållbarhet står i centrum. Dagsljus är välkänt för sin roll i att minska konstgjord belysningoch förbättra välbefinnandet och prestandan hos byggnadens användare. En viktig fråga uppstår docknär stora fönster används för att införa naturligt ljus, eftersom detta kan kompromissa med rummetstermiska effektivitet. Designers måste hitta en balansgång mellan att optimera dagsljus ochsäkerställa termisk komfort för att uppnå perfekt energieffektivitet. I takt med att den globalabefolkningen fortsätter att växa och stadsområden blir alltmer tätbefolkade, blir denna fråga alltmerkomplex och känslig att hantera. Därför är det brådskande att granska noggrant de befintligaföreskrifterna för dagsljus. När man bedömer dagsljus i olika rum tenderar de rådande kraven i olika föreskrifter eller standarderatt blanda samman alla frekvent använda utrymmen. Författaren hävdar att en mer nyanserad ochskräddarsydd ansats bör användas, beroende på byggnadens typ och avsedd användning av utrymmet.Medan de flesta studier som utförs i Sverige fokuserar på att analysera bostadsbyggnader, ändrardenna magisteruppsats fokus till svenska universitetsbyggnader. Målet är att jämföra de befintligakravnivåerna med studenternas subjektiva uppfattning om dagsljuskvalitet, med målet att fastställaom de nuvarande standarderna är tillräckliga eller bör anpassas. Studien kretsar kring en specifik byggnad som består av 21 olika studieutrymmen som är belägna påKTH:s campus i Stockholm, Sverige. Varje av dessa utrymmen har unika egenskaper som är relevantaför forskningen. För att underlätta denna undersökning användes olika programvaruverktyg, inklusiveRhinoceros 7, Grasshopper, Microsoft Word och Adobe Illustrator. Denna avhandling, stödd av resultat från enkäter och simuleringar, visar övertygande att studentersom studerar i universitetsbyggnader har en betydligt högre efterfrågan på naturligt ljus jämfört medde nivåer som fastställts i svenska föreskrifter. Dessa resultat understryker det akuta behovet avomfattande forskning om de faktiska kraven för användarna i universitetsbyggnader, med målet attrevidera och modernisera de befintliga svenska föreskrifterna. Möjligheten att differentierastandarder mellan bostads- och universitetsbyggnader förtjänar ytterligare utforskning.

Retrofitting measures in old buildings aimed at reducing energy consumption has become a widespread subject and an urgent matter to counteract the effects of climate change and GHGs emissions. The globe has reaffirmed its agreement taken in COP21 to reduce emissions in COP26. The building sector is one of the culprits with a 70 % future energy consumption forecasted by 2050 i.e., the year certain countries aim to carbon neutral (e.g., Sweden). An old building with a severe problem of energy leakage has been studied under the influence of multiple parameters such as building orientation, shading systems, location, Low-E film and an alternative energy supply (GHP). The original building’s EnU amounted to 194.5 kWh/m2•yr; the parameters were applied and orientation of 90⁰ worked best, if the building was being designed, contrary to this case. However, energy reductions, compared to the base model, were actually achieved with the application of Low-E (5%) films and when substituting the heating demand with a GHP (57.5%), LEF-GHP reached (59.2%) and a corresponding decrease in CO2 emissions. Thermal comfort was best achieved with models that had the highest energy consumption such as LEF and ES making it counterproductive in fulfilling the aim of reducing GHG footprint of Rådhuset. The economic feasibility study showed that the installation of a GHP with at least the COP of 4.0 would lead to a shorter payback period than solely applying LEF. A tailored solution of a change in the energy source such as electrified heat supply from renewables combined with LEFs would reduce the energy and emission impact of any building; this would help the building sector reach the envisioned goal of carbon neutrality in 2050.

Real estate professionals, such as investors, owner-occupants, and lenders who are involved in the investment decision-making process are increasingly interested in sustainability and energy efficiency investment. However, current tools and techniques, both technical and financial, typically used for assessing sustainability on their own are unable to provide comprehensive and reliable financial information required for making high-quality investment decisions. Sustainability investment often includes non-cost benefits, value implications, as well as substantial risk and uncertainty that current methods do not simultaneously incorporate in their assessment process. Through a combined quantitative and qualitative approach, this research creates a new systematic assessment process to consider both cost and non-cost savings and therefore the true financial performance of a set of sustainable options in the context of value and risk, while explicitly deriving and including various uncertainties inherent in the process. The framework integrates assessment tools of technical decision-makers with those of investment decision-makers into a single platform to improve the quality of financial performance projections, and therefore, investment decisions concerning sustainable options in real estate. A case study is then conducted to test and demonstrate the numeric application of the proposed framework in the context of a non-green office building. The case study presents how to connect the technical outcomes to financial inputs, present the information, and estimate the true financial performance of a green retrofit option, where incremental value and uncertainty have been modeled and included. Three levels of financial analysis are performed to estimate the distribution of financial outcomes including: 1) Cost-based level-1: only energy related costs savings were considered; 2) Cost-based level-2: the non-energy cost savings, including heath and productivity, were also considered; and 3) Value-based level: the value implications of the green retrofit option were considered in addition to items in level 2. As a result of applying the proposed framework when evaluating sustainability investment options, many investment opportunities that were otherwise ignored may be realized, and therefore, the breadth and depth of sustainability investment in real estate will increase. / Ph. D.

O conceito de desempenho na construção civil está, há muitos anos, associado ao comportamento em uso nas edificações, dentro de determinadas condições. O desafio mundial é que este comportamento atenda às expectativas dos usuários das edificações ao longo de uma determinada vida útil e dentro da realidade técnica e socioeconômica de cada país e empreendimento. Apesar do conceito de desempenho estar consolidado no meio acadêmico, sua aplicação prática é bastante difícil e envolve muitos conflitos de interesses. No caso brasileiro, com o grande crescimento que o mercado da construção civil experimenta neste momento, e com a publicação da primeira Norma Brasileira de Desempenho de Edificações, prevista para 2008, é oportuno que haja uma reflexão sobre como atendê-la e utilizá-la, além do próprio conceito de desempenho em beneficio de todos os agentes do setor. A proposta desta dissertação de mestrado é fazer uma pesquisa abrangente sobre a evolução conceitual do tema desempenho na construção civil, demonstrar a importância estratégica da sua aplicação no Brasil para a evolução do setor, e propor caminhos para a efetiva utilização da norma brasileira de desempenho de edificações. / The performance concept in building has been, for many years, associated with the behaviour in use of buildings, within certain conditions. The global challenge is to make this behaviour meet the users expectations throughout a specific service life and within the technical and socioeconomic reality of each country or site. Although the performance concept is already consolidated in the academic world, its practical application is very difficult and involves many conflicts of interest. In the Brazilian scenario, with the large growth experienced by the building construction segment at this moment, and with the upcoming publication of the first Brazilian Performance Based Building Code in 2008, it is convenient to establish a reflection on how to meet and use this code and its own performance concept to the advantage of all players in the business. The proposal of this Masters Dissertation is to provide a broad research on the conceptual evolution of the performance-based theme in building; to demonstrate its strategic importance of this application in Brazil for the evolution of the sector; and to propose a path for the effective use of the Brazilian performance-based building code.

Building performance simulation (BPS) tools are significant and helpful during all design stages, especially during the early ones. However, there are obstacles to the full implementation and use of such tools, causing them not to become an effective part of the design process. In order to overcome this barrier, this research is presented, with the creation of regression models (meta-models) that allow to predict the discomfort by heat and/or by cold in a Brazilian low-cost house (LCH) in three distinct bioclimatic zones in Brazil, represented by the cities of Curitiba/PR, São Paulo/SP and Manaus/AM. The focus of this work was to analyze the impact of solar incidence and shading devices on thermal comfort by applying the meta-models. The method consisted in a) collecting data from projects referring to the type of building aforementioned to aid in the creation of the base model; b) definition of the key parameters and their ranges to be varied; c) simulations run on EnergyPlus using the Monte Carlo method to randomly create parameters combinations within their defined ranges; d) regression analysis and metamodels elaboration, followed by their validation with reliability tests; and lastly, e) a case study, consisting in applying the meta-models to a standard LCH to verify the impact of shading devices in a unit in regards to thermal comfort and the their potential as support tool in the design process. In general, all R2 values for the meta-models were above 0.95, except for the ones for São Paulo and Curitiba for discomfort by heat, 0.74 and 0.61, respectively. In regards to the case study, the meta-models predicted a decrease of approximately 50% in discomfort by heat for Manaus when a given combination of orientation, quantity and size of the devices was used. For the remaining locations, the meta-models predicting discomfort by heat and by cold require further investigation to properly assess some unexpected predictions and the meta-models sensitivity to the parameters related to shading devices. / Ferramentas de simulação computacional são importantes e uteis durante todas as etapas de projeto, especialmente durante as iniciais. No entanto. Há obstáculos para a completa implementação e uso de tais ferramentas, fazendo com que não sejam uma parte efetiva do processo de projeto. Para superar esta barreira, esta pesquisa é apresentada, com a criação de modelos de regressão (meta-modelos) que permitem a predição do desconforto por frio e/ou por calor em uma habitação de interesse social (HIS) no Brasil em três zonas bioclimáticas, representadas pelas cidades de Curitiba/PR, São Paulo/SP e Manaus/AM. O foco deste trabalho foi analisar o impacto da incidência solar e das proteções solares no conforto térmico utilizando os meta-modelos. O método consistiu em a) coletar dados referentes ao tipo de edifício mencionado para auxiliar na criação do modelo de base; b) a definição dos parâmetros chave e suas faixas de variação; c) simulações no EnergyPlus usando o método de Monte Carlo para aleatoriamente combinar valores de parâmetros dentro de suas faixas; d) análise de regressão e elaboração dos meta-modelos, seguida da validação dos mesmos por testes de confiabilidade; e por fim, e) um estudo de caso, consistindo na aplicação dos meta-modelos a uma HIS padrão para verificar o impacto das proteções solares em uma unidade em relação ao conforto térmico da mesma, assim como o potencial dos meta-modelos em serem utilizados como uma ferramenta de auxílio nas fases iniciais de projeto. No geral, todos os valores de R2 foram acima de 0.95, exceto para os meta-modelos de São Paulo e Curitiba para desconforto por calor, com 0.74 e 0.61, respectivamente. Em relação ao estudo de caso, os meta-modelos previram uma queda de aproximadamente 50% no desconforto por calor para Manaus, dada uma combinação entre orientação, quantidade e dimensão das proteções. Para as demais localidades, os meta-modelos prevendo desconforto por frio e por calor requerem maiores estudos para avaliar predições inesperadas e a sensibilidade dos meta-modelos em relação aos parâmetros de proteções solares.