Thesis (MA (Political Science))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is conclusive that climate change will lead to scarcity of the basic resources that sustain life for people around the world – fresh water supplies, food production and land for habitation and cultivation. It is argued that environmental scarcity leads to migration which in turn results in conflict in the receiving area as competition over resources develops. Based on the main theories relating to resource scarcity and conflict, the purpose of this study is to examine the link between climate change and human security. The relevance of this research is the fact that the Stern Review concludes that climate change poses a serious threat to the world and that Africa will be one of the hardest hit continents. Africa is already vulnerable to climate variability and has the least capacity to respond, and this study aims to establish the impacts of resource scarcity on human security in South Africa. The theoretical approach addresses the much debated concept of ‘human security’ as it has developed since the end of the Cold War and the analysis is based on the main conflict theories that maintain that competition over access to scarce resources is one of the root causes of violent conflict. The research design for this study is of an empirical nature with the units of analysis being states, physical events and processes and the resulting human actions. It is a descriptive analysis, interpreting the impact of climate change on scarce resources and the resulting propensity for conflict. Much of the violence against migrants has been the result of varying degrees of xenophobia amongst all racial groups in South Africa. This study proposes the hypothesis that migration results in increased competition over scarce resources in receiving areas, which as a result of xenophobia leads to conflict. Based on the theoretical arguments put forward, the paper aims to determine what policy options for adaptation, mitigation and governance would be most likely to reduce the harmful impacts of climate change on vulnerable regions and groups of people in South Africa and neighbouring countries in order to contain migration and lessen the likelihood of violent conflict. Having identified xenophobia as a spark that could ignite violent inter-group conflict it would be useful to gain some theoretical insight into reducing group prejudice and attaining group cooperation through inter-group contact. It is apparent that there is no single theoretical approach that can be applied to gain a better insight into the complex link between resource scarcity and conflict. The different theories are mutually compatible and each theoretical perspective contributes a partial elaboration to and additional insights into the climate change/conflict hypothesis. There is possibly room for a new theoretical approach to gain a better understanding of the complexity and the uncertainties that are inherent in the study of a mechanism as complex as climate change. South Africa has the responsibility to use its global political influence to promote a shared understanding of responsible behaviour across all societies. Active participation will enable South Africa to guide global negotiations towards outcomes that will lessen the impact of climate change on the most vulnerable countries and populations. In conclusion, possible policies and actions are identified that could support these objectives. Without urgent, appropriate intervention climate change will undermine any efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, and a crippled African continent will be a threat to world security.

Global CO2 emissions produced by energy-related processes, mainly power plants, have increased rapidly in recent decades; and are widely accepted as the dominant contributor to the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect and consequent climate changes. Among countermeasures against the emissions, CO2 capture and storage (CCS) is receiving much attention. Capture of CO2 is the core step of CCS as it contributes around 75% of the overall cost, and may increase the production costs of electricity by over 50%. The reduction in capture costs is one of the most challenging issues in application of CCS to the energy industry. Using limestone in CaO-looping cycles is a promising capture technology to provide a cost-effective separation process to remove CO2 content from power plants operations. Limestone has the advantage of being relatively abundant and cheap, and that has already been widely used as a sorbent for sulphur capture. However, this technology suffers from a critical challenge caused by the decay in the sorbent capture capacity during cyclic carbonation/calcination, which results in the need for more sorbent make-up; hence a reduction in cost efficiency of the technology. The performance of sorbent influenced by several operating and reaction conditions. Therefore, much research involves investigation of influencing factors and different methods to reduce the sorbent deactivation. Cont/d.

L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’acquérir une connaissance détaillée sur l’évolution spatiale de la température de surface du sol (GST) au mont Jacques-Cartier et sur la réponse thermique de son îlot de pergélisol alpin aux changements climatiques passés et futurs. L’étude est basée sur un ensemble de mesures de température (GST, sous-sol) et de neige, ainsi que des modèles spatiaux de distribution potentielle de la GST et des simulations numériques du régime thermique du sol. Les résultats montrent que la distribution de la GST sur le plateau est principalement corrélée avec la répartition du couvert nival. Au-dessus de la limite de la végétation, le plateau est caractérisé par un couvert de neige peu épais et discontinu en hiver en raison de la topographie du site et l’action des forts vents. La GST est alors couplée avec les températures de l’air amenant des conditions froides en surface. Dans les îlots de krummholz et les dépressions topographiques sur les versants SE sous le vent, la neige soufflée du plateau s’accumule en un couvert très épais induisant des conditions de surface beaucoup plus chaude que sur le plateau dû à l’effet isolant de la neige. En raison de la quasi-absence de neige en hiver et de la nature du substrat, la réponse du pergélisol du sommet du mont Jacques-Cartier au signal climatique est très rapide. De 1978 à 2014, la température du sol a augmenté à toutes les profondeurs au niveau du forage suivant la même tendance que les températures de l’air. Si la tendance au réchauffement se poursuit telle que prévue par les simulations climatiques produites par le consortium Ouranos, le pergélisol pourrait disparaître d’ici à 2040-2050. / The objective of the study was to acquire detailed knowledge of the spatial evolution of the ground surface temperature (GST) on Mont Jacques-Cartier and the thermal response of its marginal permafrost body to the past and future climate changes. The study is based on temperature (GST, underground) and snow measurements, and spatial modeling of the potential GST distribution and numerical modeling of the ground thermal regime. The result showed that the spatio-temporal variability of the GST over the summit is mainly correlated with the snowpack distribution. On the wind-exposed plateau, the snowpack is thin and discontinuous. The GST is thus closely connected to the very cold air temperature in winter. In the krummholz patches and in the topographic depression on the leeward slope, drifted snow accumulation is significant leading to surface condition warmer than over the wind-exposed plateau. Because of the near snow-free condition of the plateau summit and the highly conductive nature of its bedrock, the response of the permafrost to the climate signal is rapid. From 1978 to 2014, the ground warmed at all depths. If the recent trend continues as predicted by the climate simulations provided by the Ouranos consortium, the complete disappearance of the permafrost body at Mont Jacques-Cartier could occur around 2040-2050.

Syfte: Idag riskerar cirka 300 000 hushåll med uteluftsventilerad krypgrund att bli angripna av fukt- och mögelskador. Klimatet i en uteluftsventilerad krypgrund påverkas i stor grad av temperaturen och den relativa luftfuktigheten. Det råder inga tvivel om att klimatet står inför förändringar, vilket innebär en höjd temperatur och en förändring av den relativa luftfuktigheten. Detta gör att den uteluftsventilerade krypgrunden inte har möjlighet att torka ut under vissa perioder på året och utsätts då för en förhöjd risk av fuktskador. Parallellt med klimatförändringen moderniseras även uppvärmningssystemen i småhusen, vilket ändrar förutsättningar för krypgrunderna. Målet med arbetet är att undersöka om klimatförändringarna och installation av golvvärme i träbjälklaget har bidragit till fuktskador i uteluftsventilerade krypgrunder och ge underlag till effektivare åtgärder av fuktskador. Metod: För att utreda om klimatförändringarna är ett problem för de uteluftsventilerade krypgrunderna har dokumentanalyser genomförts vilka sedan följdes av beräkningar av krypgrundens relativa luftfuktighet. På samma sätt gavs svar på om golvvärmen är en bidragande faktor till fuktskadorna. Båda frågeställningarna styrktes även av kvalitativa intervjuer med sakkunniga personer. Hur fuktskadorna effektivare kunde åtgärdas togs främst fram genom kvalitativa intervjuer men styrktes av dokumentanalyser. Resultat: Studien visar att klimatförändringarna kommer att påverka uteluftsventilerade krypgrunder i positiv bemärkelse då studien endast tog hänsyn till temperaturhöjningen. Installation av golvvärme har även visats vara positivt mot fuktskador i en uteluftsventilerad krypgrund om isolering i bjälklaget saknas eller är bristfällig. Branschen ser ingen vinst i att effektivisera åtgärdsmetoderna då dessa redan är välprövade och väl fungerande. Konsekvenser: Ett varmare klimat ger bättre förutsättningar för en uteluftsventilerad krypgrund. Medvetenheten om hur klimatförändringarna påverkar krypgrunderna ger byggbranschen ett försprång att förbereda sig inför kommande förändringar. Kunskapen om att golvvärme kan ge positiva effekter mot fuktskador i uteluftsventilerade krypgrunder ger nya förutsättningar för renoveringar och åtgärder mot fuktskador, dock måste energiförlusterna tas i hänsyn i dessa fall. Branschen ser ingen vinst i att effektivisera åtgärdsmetoderna, vilket gör att det inte finns någon anledning att gå djupare in i detta. Begränsningar: Arbetet behandlar endast uteluftsventilerade krypgrunder med träbjälklag som ligger inom Sveriges gränser. Denna studie är därför inte applicerbar på andra konstruktioner eller utanför Sveriges gränser. Endast klimatförändringarna det senaste seklet och fram till 2100 tas hänsyn till i rapporten. Studien tar heller inte hänsyn till fukttillskott från mark och dagvatten, likaså görs inga beräkningar på ventilation. / Purpose: Today are about 300 000 buildings with outdoor ventilated crawl space at risk to be contaminated by moisture and mold damage. An outdoor ventilated crawl space’s climate is greatly affected by the temperature and the relative humidity. There is no doubt that the climate is facing changes, which means an increased temperature and a change in the relative humidity. This prevents the outdoor ventilated crawl space from drying out during certain periods of the year and is then exposed to a heightened risk of moisture damage. Parallel to the climate change the heating systems are being modernized in houses, which changes the conditions for the crawl spaces. The objective of this essay is to do a research if climate change and the installation of underfloor heating in the greater part of the joist area has given rise to moisture damage in outdoor ventilated crawl spaces and provide good basis for more effective measures to moisture damage. Method: To investigate whether the climate change is a problem for outdoor ventilated crawl spaces have document analyzes been conducted, which was followed by calculations of the crawl spaces’ relative humidity. Calculations have been made to find out if the underfloor heating is a contributing problem to moisture damage. Both issues are also corroborated by interviews with qualified people. How the moisture damage more effective could be fixed was answered primarily through qualitative interviews, but corroborated by document analysis. Findings: The study shows that climate change will affect outdoor ventilated crawl spaces in a positive sense, only account to the temperature rise. Installing underfloor heating has also been shown to be positive against moisture damage in outdoor ventilated crawl spaces if insulation in the soffit is missing or deficient. The industry sees no gain in efficiency action methods as these are already proven and well- functioning. Implications: A warmer climate provides better conditions for outdoor ventilated crawl space. Being aware of the changes associated with climate change, and its effects on buildings give the construction industry a head start to prepare for future changes. Knowledge that underfloor heating can provide positive effects against moisture damage in crawl spaces creates new opportunities for renovations and actions against dampness but the energy losses in this case must be considered. Since the industry does not see profit in streamlining action methods is no need to go deeper into this. Limitations: The report deals only outdoor ventilated crawl spaces with wooden soffit that is located within the Swedish borders. This study is therefore not applicable to other constructions or other countries. Only climate change in the last century and up until 2100 are taken into account in the report. Further on the study does not take the excess moisture from the soil or the storm water into account; likewise there are no calculations for the ventilation.

For centuries in the future, the climate on Earth will be affected by the global warming.Effects as melting ices, increasing sea levels and extreme weather, are all consequencesof the high amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), that we humans have caused. In Sweden,can climate effects like higher temperatures, longer vegetation periods and greaterseasonal variations in water fluxes, be expected. Due to climate changes and anincreasing population, the drinking water production in Uppsala will be affected. Interms of securing the drinking water production in the future, Uppsala Vatten och Avfall AB are investigating the possibility to use the Ekoln basin in lake Mälaren, as acomplementary raw water catchment area. In order to keep a secure drinking water production, in regard to quantity and quality, itis of interest to investigate how fluxes and water quality will be affected in the future.The annual pattern of water mixing, with summer- and winter stratification, and overturnduring spring and autumn, is something that significantly affects the water quality in theSwedish lakes. With the aim to study how the annual pattern of water mixing in theEkoln basin, might change due to future climate changes, hydrodynamic modelling wasperformed on a model area consisting of the Ekoln basin with adjacently bays. A hydrodynamic (3D) transport model of type MIKE 3 Flow Model FM, created byTyréns AB for simulating transport of pollutions, was calibrated and adapted to simulatetemperature profiles in the model area. To be able to study the annual pattern of watermixing, the model was also adapted to simulate a period of a year. Three scenarios weresimulated, one reference year and two future scenarios, where the future scenarios werebased on the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in year 2050. The calibration of the model was successful, and the calculation time was reduced byadapting the mesh. Results from the three scenarios, showed that the period with summerstratification might become nine days longer by RCP4.5 in year 2050, compared to thereference scenario. Simulation of RCP8.5 during the same time period, did not showany changes. By RCP8.5 it is possible that water temperatures in the epilimnion, areincreasing and that there will be no winter stratification. The temperature in the surfacewater are affected by the air temperature, in future studies it is in interest to investigatehow stratification and cirkulation will be affected by changes in wind speed and winddirection, how different types of wind data effect the results, it is also in interest to studychanges during a time period longer than one year. / Den globala uppvärmningen kommer att påverka Jordens klimat i många sekel framöver.Effekter som smältande isar, stigande havsnivåer och extremare väder, är allakonsekvenser av de enorma utsläpp koldioxid (CO2), som vi människor orsakat. ISverige kan vi i framtiden vänta oss varmare temperaturer, längre vegetationsperioderoch flöden med stora säsongsvariationer. I Uppsala kommer de framtidaklimatförändringarna i samverkan med en växande befolkning att påverka stadensdricksvattenproduktion. Uppsala Vatten och avfall AB undersöker idag möjligheten tillatt använda Mälarbassängen Ekoln som kompletterande råvattentäkt. För att säkerställa en säker dricksvattenproduktion, både utifrån den kvantitet ochkvalitet som krävs, är det av intresse att veta hur flöden och vattenkvalitet i Ekoln kankomma att utvecklas i framtiden. Något som i stor grad påverkar vattenkvaliteten i våraSvenska sjöar, är den årstidsbundna cirkulationen, med vinter- och sommarstagnation,samt vår- och höstcirkulation. För att undersöka hur den årstidsbundna cirkulationen iEkoln kan komma att förändras med framtida klimat, utfördes hydrodynamiskmodellering för sjön med intilliggande vikar. En bestående tredimensionell spridningsmodell av typ MIKE 3 Flow Model FM, skapadför att simulera spridning av avloppsvatten i Ekoln, erhölls från Tyréns AB. Modellenkalibrerades och anpassades för att simulera temperaturprofiler i sjön. För att täcka inbeteendet för den årstidsbundna cirkulationen anpassades modellen till att simulera etthelt år. Modellen kördes för ett referensår, samt för de två strålningsdrivningsscenariernaRCP4.5 och RCP8.5 vid år 2050. Kalibrering av modellen var lyckad och beräkningstiden förkortades genom anpassningav beräkningsnätet. Resultat från simuleringar visade på att sommarstagnation kanförekomma nio dagar längre vid RCP4.5 för år 2050, än under referensåret. Ingenförändring förväntas vid RCP8.5 under samma tidsperiod. Vid RCP8.5 förväntas dockvattentemperaturer i epilimnion att stiga och vinterstagnation förekommer ej.Temperaturer i vattenmassans övre skikt påverkas i hög grad av lufttemperatur och vidfortsatta studier är det även av intresse att undersöka hur skiktning och cirkulationpåverkas av förändrade vindförhållanden, hur olika drivdata för vindförhållandenpåverkar resultatet samt att undersöka en tidsperiod som är längre än ett år.

A agropecuária brasileira apresenta relevante papel sócio-econômico para o país, e constantemente busca novas tecnologias para alcançar uma agricultura sustentável. Com as mudanças que vêm ocorrendo no uso da terra, principalmente nas regiões tropical e subtropical, o Brasil vem sendo apontado como um grande emissor dos gases do efeito estufa. A conversão de florestas em sistemas agrícolas pode levar a um rápido aumento dos fluxos de CO2, CH4 e N2O no ambiente, além de potencializar o efeito estufa e ameaçar os diferentes ecossistemas. Em busca de sistemas mais conservacionistas, que possam mitigar o efeito estufa, os sistemas convencional, plantio direto, integração lavoura-pecuária e pastagem com histórico bem definido, foram selecionados nesse estudo para melhor compreensão e discernimento das possíveis mudanças oriundas dos sistemas avaliados no bioma do Cerrado. Em um segundo momento avaliamos o potencial da elevada concentração de CO2 aquecimento das parcelas em sistema sob temperature freeair controlled enhancement e carbon dioxide free-air enrichment (T-FACE) para avaliar as alterações funcionais e composição microbiana do solo. Os objetivos desse estudo foram: determinar a quantidade de células total dos genes 16S rRNA bactéria, archaea e dos genes funcionais amoA, nirS, nirK, cnorB, nosZ, presentes em diferentes sistemas de manejo do solo. Bem como, possíveis alterações na comunidade microbiana do solo sob elevada concentração de CO2 e aquecimento das parcelas. Para acessar o número de cópias dos genes foi utilizado o PCR quantitativo, a estrutura da comunidade microbiana foi determinada pela técnica de T-RFLP e a composição microbiana pelo sequenciamento de terceira geração. Os resultados dos sistemas de plantio direto e integração lavoura-pecuária revelaram importante capacidade de controlarem as emissões de N2O. Notoriamente, o número de cópias do gene nosZ teve sua densidade incrementada nos dois sistemas de plantio direto e integração lavoura-pecuária, este gene apresenta alto potencial para monitorar a desnitrificaçnao completa do N2O a N2. Adicionalmente, a elevada concentração de CO2 e elevada temperatura incrementaram o número de cópias dos genes nifH, AOB e nosZ ao longo do experimento. A análise da diversidade dos grupos taxinômicos e funcional revelou que a diversidade funcional foi alterada nas parcelas com maior emissão de N2O, apresentando maior abundância de genes (2-3 vezes) envolvidos na desnitrificação, acarretando possivelmente essas maiores emissões de N2O pela microbiota do solo. / Agriculture activities have large an important socio-economic role for a country, and are constantly searching for new technologies to achieve sustainable agriculture. Changes have occurred in land use, especially in tropical and subtropical regions and Brazil has been considered as a large emitter of greenhouse gases from agricultural systems. The conversion of forests to agricultural systems can lead to a fast increase of CO2 streams, CH4 and N2O for atmosphere, which enhances the greenhouse effect and threaten the ecosystem. In search of more conservation systems that can mitigate the greenhouse gas, the conventional, no-tillage, integrated crop-livestock and pasture systems with well defined historical management were selected in this study to better understand and decifer the possibles changes resulting in the biome Cerrado. In a second study, it was evaluated the potential of high concentration of CO2 and warming plots on system under increased temperature free-air controlled enhancement e carbon dioxide freeair enrichment (T-FACE) to assess the functional changes and microbial composition in the soil. The objectives of this study were to determine the total amount of the 16S rRNA Bacteria, Archaea and the functional genes amoA, nirS, nirK, cnorB, nosZ present under different soil management and evaluate the possible changes in the soil microbial community under high CO2 concentration and warming in the plots. To access the number of copies genes we used quantitative PCR, with the microbial community structure determined by T-RFLP and the microbial composition by Illumina next-generation sequencing. No-tillage and integrated crop-livestock revealed important capability to control N2O emissions. Notably, the high number of nosZ gene copies was found under no-tillage and integrated crop-livestock systems. This gene has a high potential to monitor the oxidation of N2O to N2. In addition, high CO2 concentration and elevated temperature increased 2-3 folds the number of copies of the nifH genes, and AOB nosZ throughout the experiment. The analysis of the diversity of functional taxonomic groups revealed that functional diversity has changed in plots with high N2O emissions, and showed a greater abundance of genes involved in denitrification, which possibly has stimulated the emissions of N2O from soil microbiota.

A concentração de CO2 na atmosfera tem aumentado progressivamente nos últimos anos. Este aumento é atribuído em sua maior parte à ação humana e à atividades como mudanças no uso da terra, desflorestamento e uso de combustíveis fósseis. É previsto que as mudanças do clima decorrentes desse aumento do CO2 irão impactar de forma significativa na agricultura. A cana-de-açúcar é uma planta de grande importância na economia mundial devido ao seu uso na indústria sucroalcoleira. Neste sentido, conhecer como o aumento de CO2 irá impactar nesta cultura é de importância estratégica para o país e para o mundo. Experimentos com cana-de-açúcar cultivada em elevado CO2 têm demonstrado aumento na taxa de fotossíntese, biomassa e no conteúdo de sacarose. Especula-se que a maior taxa de fotossíntese observada nesses experimentos é regulada por meio da taxa de transporte de elétrons, uma vez que genes relacionados a este processo foram observados com maior expressão em alto CO2. No entanto, os mecanismos que envolvem este processo ainda são desconhecidos. Com o objetivo de compreender os mecanismos envolvidos na regulação e funcionamento da fotossíntese em cana-de-açúcar, este trabalho apresenta dados sobre o ciclo diário de fotossíntese e carboidratos não estruturais, bem como dados fisiológicos, bioquímicos e de expressão gênica de plantas cultivadas em atmosfera enriquecida de CO2. Os resultados obtidos mostram que a regulação da fotossíntese em alto CO2 é dada pela manutenção do crescimento que esta condição proporciona às plantas, uma vez que o cultivo no vaso limita o crescimento na raiz e leva a um possível déficit hídrico. Genes e proteínas relacionados direta ou indiretamente ao processo de transporte de elétrons foram encontrados com expressão diferencial, corroborando os dados obtidos nas medidas in vivo. Por outro lado, os dados mostram pouca variação no sistema de captação de CO2, indicando que a principal regulação da fotossíntese em cana-de-açúcar ocorre por meio do sistema de captura de luz. Foram observados proteínas e genes relacionados com o conteúdo de açúcares e com o crescimento, que podem ser pontos importantes de regulação da fotossíntese em cana-de-açúcar. Com os dados obtidos foi possível inferir que o aumento do CO2 na atmosfera irá beneficiar as plantas de cana-de-açúcar, sendo que pontos de regulação descritos neste trabalho têm potencial de utilização como ferramentas que auxiliem na determinação de cultivares mais produtivos. / The atmospheric CO2 concentration has been increasing progressively along the last years. This increase is attributed mainly to humans action and to land use changes, deforestation and fossil fuel burning. Is it predicted that the global climate changes resulting from CO2 increase will impact significantly agriculture. Sugarcane is very important for worlds economy due to its use for sugar and alcohol industry. In this way, the knowledge of how sugarcane will respond at elevated CO2 is important to design strategies for biofuel production and use in Brazil and in the world. In experiments with sugarcane grown under elevated CO2 sugarcane plants have shown an increase in photosynthesis, biomass and sucrose content. It was then speculated that the higher photosynthesis observed in these experiments might be regulated by electron transport rates, since genes related to this process were observed with higher expression in elevated CO2. However, the mechanisms that are related with this process are still unknown. The aim of this thesis was to understand the mechanisms related in the regulation and functioning of photosynthesis in sugarcane in elevated CO2. This work presents data about diurnal cycle of photosynthesis and non structural carbohydrates, physiology, biochemistry and gene expression. The results show that photosynthesis regulation in elevated CO2 is linked with the plant growth that remains under these conditions, since the pots cause roots growth limitations and leads a possibly water deficit. Genes and proteins were found that are related directly or indirectly to electron transport process as seen from differential expression. This corroborates the data obtained from in vivo measurements. On the other hand, our data show little variation in CO2 capture system, indicating that the mainly regulations of photosynthesis in sugarcane occurs due changes in light capture system. Proteins and genes have been observed that associated with sugar content and growth. These might be key for understanding regulation of photosynthesis in sugarcane. With the data obtained it is possible to speculate that elevation of CO2 will benefit the sugarcane plants in the future. Also, the regulation points described in this work have potential to be used as tools to help finding more productive cultivars.

Submitted by admin tede (tede@pucgoias.edu.br) on 2016-09-05T14:46:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 LUCIANO NUNES DA SILVA.pdf: 814867 bytes, checksum: eaeace88d325760adf2688c0cd58d28b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-05T14:46:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 LUCIANO NUNES DA SILVA.pdf: 814867 bytes, checksum: eaeace88d325760adf2688c0cd58d28b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-18 / The purpose of this essay is to analyze the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, in the field of international debates about the climate as a guidance principle of debates. The differentiated responsibility, which came out in the establishment of goals to equalize the levels of emission of greenhouse gases only to developed countries (Parties in the Annex I), is based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities adopted by the Framework Convention, and it usually commands the relations between developed and developing countries and even the global hope to create a new agreement post-Kyoto. Beyond this principle, we will also study others that help in understanding the environmental protection in the international field. The essay also has the purpose to analyze the practices and perspectives for the common but differentiated responsibilities in a global scope, especially the developments of the principle in the new series of climate negotiations; / Esta dissertação tem por escopo a análise do princípio das responsabilidades comuns, porém diferenciadas, no âmbito das negociações internacionais do clima, como princípio balizador das discussões. A responsabilização diferenciada, que resultou no estabelecimento de metas de estabilização dos níveis de emissão de gases do efeito estufa apenas para os países desenvolvidos (Partes do Anexo I), é baseada no princípio da responsabilidade comum, porém diferenciada, adotado pela Convenção-Quadro, e que rege usualmente as relações entre os países desenvolvidos e os países em desenvolvimento e ainda a expectativa global na construção de um novo acordo pós Kyoto. Além deste princípio estudaremos também outros que ajudam na compreensão à proteção ao meio ambiente no cenário internacional. A dissertação visa também analisar as práticas e perspectivas para as responsabilidades comuns, mas diferenciadas em âmbito global especialmente os desdobramentos do princípio nas novas rodadas de negociação do clima;

Há evidências de que o clima vem sendo alterado pela ação humana desde a época da Revolução Industrial devido à crescente emissão de gases estufa na atmosfera. Inúmeras curvas da variação da temperatura média anual têm sido publicadas com uma característica comum: o crescimento da temperatura durante o último século, totalizando aproximadamente 0,5ºC. Acredita-se que o aumento na concentração atmosférica dos gases responsáveis pelo efeito estufa tenha influência direta na tendência da temperatura dos últimos 100 anos. Este trabalho foi realizado com o intuito de estudar as mudanças no comportamento sazonal e anual da temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM), pressão atmosférica ao nível do mar (PNM) e transporte barotrópico (TB) devido ao aumento na concentração dos gases estufa. Foram utilizadas duas simulações do modelo acoplado NCAR CCSM sob as condições atmosféricas do período pré-industrial e pós-industrial. Os resultados revelam que, na média anual, as variáveis estudadas sofreram intensificação do período pré para o pós-industrial. A temperatura da superfície do mar mostrou aumento no período pós-industrial, principalmente durante o inverno e primavera, quando ocorre um aquecimento superior a 2,5ºC ao sul do continente sul-americano. A pressão atmosférica ao nível do mar na maior parte da região de estudo apresentou aumento no verão e outono e diminuição nas demais estações do ano, indicando uma intensificação no padrão sazonal dessa variável durante o período pós-industrial em relação ao pré-industrial. O transporte barotrópico revelou diferenças significativas entre os dois experimentos, mostrando maiores valores no período pós-industrial. A média da região apresentou um ciclo anual com diferenças de 2,5Sv ao longo do ano entre os dois períodos, com aumento para o pós-industrial. Esse aumento deve-se basicamente à intensificação do transporte barotrópico da Corrente Circumpolar Antártica durante todas as estações do ano. O Giro Subtropical também sofreu aumento de transporte, de menor intensidade, durante o período pós-industrial. Essa mudança no comportamento do transporte barotrópico sugere uma intensificação no padrão do Giro Subtropical e no transporte da Corrente Circumpolar Antártica para o período pós-industrial. As maiores mudanças entre os dois períodos simulados ocorreram nas latitudes mais altas. / The main objective of this research is to study the impacts of the increase in greenhouse gases concentration on variables behavior at the sea-air interface. For this the NCAR CCSM coupled model is used by two climate conditions: the first one to pre-industrial period and the second one, to present day levels. Annual and seasonal climatology differences are analyzed for the of the following variables: air temperature, sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, wind stress, latent and sensible heat fluxes and barotropic transport. Statistics methods such as Empirical Ortoghonal Functions (EOF), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Multi-Taper Method (MTM) are used to analyze changes in interannual behavior of these variables. The main results show that these surface variable are intensified from one period to the next. The air temperature and sea surface temperature showed increase in the pos-industrial period, mainly during the winter and spring. The sea level pressure also showed an increase on the annual mean. The wind stress revealed that the trade winds are intensified in autumn and the meridional wind component increases over the South Atlantic during winter. The winds adjacent to the South American continent also increased. Latent and sensible heat fluxes also increase, but not much, over some regions and decrease over others. Barotropic transport shows significant differences between the two experiments. There was increase of barotropic transport associated with the Subtropical Gyre and on Antartic Circumpolar Current. EOF, SVD and MTM analysis showed significant differences with respect to spatial patterns, behavior of the expansion coeficients time series and their variability.

Climate global models have contributed to the understanding of climate changes impacts on several Earth system processes. It is known that impacts on the ocean large scale circulation are considerably relevant. However, these models are not suitable to represent regional scale processes. Therefore, to evaluate the climate change impacts on small scale processes downscaling is necessary. This study was divided in two parts. The first part consists of evaluation and understanding of the behavior of the Southern Ocean circulation from a large scale perspective. For this, we used the ocean component (Parallel Ocean Program version 2 - POP2) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 (NCAR-CESM1.0). The second part aimed to evaluate the Antarctic Coastal Current (ACoC) in the Weddell Sea through high-resolution regional simulations with the Regional Ocean model System (ROMS) which were forced with results from NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (NCAR-CCSM3), an earlier version of NCAR-CESM1, experiments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4). The first simulation was forced with 20th century historical scenario (ROMS-20C3M) and comprises the 1980 to 1999 period, whereas the second run considers the 21st century scenario A2 (ROMS-SRESA2) which comprises the 2021 to 2047 period. Results from CESM1-POP2 represents satisfactorily the large scale mean patterns and is in agreement with available data. The results show the limitation of these models to reproduce important features of the coastal region, which makes downscaling necessary to understanding smaller scale processes. The ACoC and its transport (≈ 22 Sv) were satisfactorily represented by regional simulations. From the 20th to 21st century projections, weakening of the ACoC transport was observed and shown to be mainly related with changes in the termohaline forcing. / A utilização de modelos climáticos globais tem contribuído para o entendimento dos efeitos da mudança no clima em diversos processos do sistema terrestre. Os impactos na circulação oceânica de larga escala são conhecidamente relevantes. Porém, esses modelos não são adequados para a representação de processos na escala regional. Dessa forma, para avaliar os impactos da mudança do clima nos processos de menor escala a regionalização numérica é necessária. Este trabalho foi dividido em duas partes. A primeira consiste na avaliação e entendimento do comportamento da circulação no Oceano Austral do ponto de vista da larga escala. Para isso a componente oceânica (Parallel Ocean Program version 2 - POP2) do National Center for Atmospheric Research - Community Earth System Model version 1 (NCAR-CESM1.0) foi utilizada. A segunda parte teve como objetivo avaliar as mudanças na Corrente Costeira Antártica (CCoA) no Mar de Weddell através de simulações regionais de alta resolução com o Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) forçados com dois experimentos do NCAR - Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (NCAR-CCSM3) para os cenários do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4). A primeira simulação foi forçada com o cenário histórico do século XX (ROMS-20C3M) e compreende o período de 1980 a 1999, já a segunda considera o cenário pessimista A2 (ROMS-SRESA2) para o século XXI e compreende o período de 2021 a 2047. Os resultados obtidos do CESM1-POP2 mostraram que o modelo representa de forma satisfatória os padrões de larga escala e concordam com os dados disponíveis. Os resultados também evidenciam a limitação de modelos como esse em reproduzir características importantes da região costeira, o que torna necessário a reginoalização para o entendimento dos processos de menor escala. Os resultados das simulações regionais reproduziram de forma consistente a CCoA e o seu transporte (≈ 22 Sv). Do cenário do século XX para o do século XXI houve um enfraquecimento do transporte da CCoA, que mostrou estar relacionado principalmente à mudanças na forçante termohalina.