This paper models the supply curve of carbon sequestration on Pacific Northwest rangelands. Rangeland managers have the ability to sequester carbon in agricultural soils by implementing alternative management practices on their farms. Their low adoption rate in practice suggests a high opportunity cost associated with their implementation. To increase their adoption, a payment for ecosystem services plan is proposed, where the public compensates farms for lost profits. The TOA-MD model is used to estimate the resulting sequestration incentivized by payments for soil carbon sequestration. Methodological questions of geographical stratification and estimating variation from available data are tested. Sensitivity analysis is also run on key assumptions in the study. Results show that while the economic potential of both systems is much lower than the technical potential, at reasonable CO��� payment levels rangeland sequestration could be a significant mitigation strategy for Pacific Northwest states. / Graduation date: 2012

This thesis investigates the abiotic control of carbon (C) and water vapour fluxes (FCO₂ and E, respectively) in a New Zealand Pinus radiata D. Don plantation and a nearby clearcut. It concentrates on the limitation of these fluxes imposed by growing season soil water deficit. This results from low precipitation (658 mm a⁻¹) in combination with a limited root zone water storage capacity of the very stony soil (> 30% by volume). The thesis analyses results from seven eddy covariance flux measurement campaigns between November 1994 and March 1996. The study site was located in Balmoral Forest, 100 km north-west of Christchurch (42° 52' S, 172° 45' E), in a (in November 1994) 8-year-old stand. One set of measurements was conducted in an adjacent clearcut. Ecosystem flux measurements were accompanied by separate measurements of ground fluxes and of the associated environmental variables. Flux analysis focussed on the underlying processes of assimilation (Ac), canopy stomatal conductance (Gc) and respiration (Reco), using biophysical models coupled to soil water balance and temperature subroutines. Aiming to link time inegrated net ecosystem C (NEP) to tree growth, sequestration in tree biomass (NPP) was quantified by regular measurements of stem diameter using allometric relationships. Average rates of FCO₂ and E were highest in spring (324 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ and 207 mol m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively) when the abiotic environment was most favourable for Gc and Ac. During summer, fluxes were impeded by the depletion of available soil water (θ) and the co-occurrence of high air saturation deficit (D) and temperature (T) and were equal or smaller than during winter (FCO₂ = 46 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ in summer and 115 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ in winter; E = 57 and 47 mol m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively). With increasingly dry soil, fluxes and their associated ratios became predominantly regulated by D rather than quantum irradiance, and on particularly hot days the ecosystem was a net C source. Interannually, forest C and water fluxes increased strongly with rainfall, and the simultaneously reduced D and T. For two succeeding years, the second having 3 % more rain, modelled NEP was 515 and 716 g C m⁻² a⁻¹, Ac 1690 and 1841 g C m⁻² a⁻¹ and Reco 1175 and 1125 g C m⁻² a⁻¹. NEP / E increased in wetter (and cooler) years (1.3 and 1.5 g kg⁻¹), reflecting a relatively larger gain in NEP. Responding mainly to increased rainfall during commonly dry parts of the year (ie summer), and reflecting the otherwise benign maritime climate of New Zealand, NEP during the winter months could exceed NEP during the middle of the notional tree growing season. Annual Ac, NEP, and NPP were strongly linearly related. This relation did not hold during bi-weekly periods when the processes of intermediate C storage were influential. Separate knowledge of tree growth and C fluxes allowed quantification of autotrophic, and heterotrophic respiration (Rhet≈ 0.4 NEP), as well as fine-root turnover (≈0.2 NEP). The ratio of NEP and stem volume growth was conservative (0.24 t C m⁻³) and allows a direct connection to be made between ecosystem carbon fluxes and forest yield tables. In the absence of living roots, the clearcut flux measurements demonstrated the expected limitation of Rhet by soil temperature (Ts) and θ. However, an additional 'pumping effect' was discovered at the open site whereby turbulence increased CO₂ efflux considerably when the soil surface was wet. Accounting for the combined effects of Ts, θ and turbulence, annual Rhet at the clear-cut site (loss to the atmosphere) was »50 % of NEP (C sequestered from the atmosphere) in the nearby forest. Clearly, there is an important contribution of C fluxes during early stages of ecosystem development to the total C sequestered over the lifetime of a plantation.

Bibliography: leaves 135-145 / Climate Change poses a great risk to our future as species on Earth. The impacts thereof will have far reaching consequences on every aspect of our daily lives and ultimately on our ability to survive and thrive as humans. It is therefore important, particularly in urban areas where most of the human population live, for the investment of resources and expertise into mitigating these impacts and ensuring the resilience of urban areas. The urban forest provides climate change mitigation benefits for urban areas through carbon sequestration. In order to encourage investment and protection of the urban forest, this benefit must be quantified and afforded a monetary value. This study calculated the amount of carbon dioxide sequestrated by the Jacaranda mimosifolia street tree in the City of Tshwane and afforded this amount a monetary value in both South African Rands and American Dollars through the South African Carbon Tax Bill. This study followed the baseline study by Stoffberg (2006) looking at how much carbon dioxide had been sequestrated by the Jacaranda trees over the past 15 years post the baseline study and what monetary value do the trees now have through legislation that was not available during the baseline study. The study also observed the variables that may have affected the amount of carbon dioxide sequestrated by the trees. Although some areas saw a drop in the Total Carbon Dioxide Equivalent sequestrated since 2004, the total amount for the whole city remained stable. Through the Carbon Tax Bill, the value of these trees has increased significantly encouraging the municipality to invest in the maintenance and protection of the Jacaranda street trees in the City of Tshwane in order to preserve their carbon sequestration benefits / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental management)

In the dominantly small-scale subsistence agricultural system of Ethiopia, where most of the organic inputs are not returned to soil and land is not used based on its best suitability, the contribution of agriculture to climate change mitigation/adaptation through reduction of greenhouse gases emission is undermined. When this low-input agricultural practice is coupled with rugged topography, high population pressure, generally low soil fertility, and looming climate change, ensuring food and nutrition security of society as well as sustainable use of land resources is practically impossible. Under such circumstances, finding alternative land uses, through scientific investigation, that meet the triple mandates of climate-smart agriculture under current and future climate is imperative. In view of this, a study was conducted in Hades Sub-watershed, eastern Ethiopia, to evaluate the carbon stock of major land uses, evaluate suitability of land for rainfed production of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.), Maize (Zea mays L.), coffee (Coffea arabica), upland rice (Oryza sativa L.) and finger millet (Eleusine coracana L.), and project biomass production of late-maturing sorghum and maize varieties under changing climate and its contribution to carbon sequestration and reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission. Soil and vegetation samples were collected following recommended procedures. Secondary data on required crop parameters were collected for model calibration and validation in the biomass projection study made using the AquaCrop v6.0 model. Climate data of the study area was obtained from the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia and analyzed following standard procedures. Near-century (NC) (2017-2039) and Mid-century (MC) (2040-2069) climate was projected under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using four models (CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, ICHEC-EC-Earth, MOHC-HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and a Multi-model Ensemble. Biomass production projection, for the climate projected under the two emission scenarios using the four models and the ensemble, was made for late-maturing sorghum (Muyira-1) and maize (BH661) varieties. From the projected biomass, organic carbon and its equivalent CO2 were estimated. Furthermore, adaptation measures, involving adjusting planting dates and irrigation, under the changing climate were evaluated for their influence on biomass production under the time slices, RCPs, and models mentioned above. The carbon stock assessment study was conducted on four major land uses (cultivated, grazing, coffee agroforestry, and forest lands) identified in the study area. The land suitability assessment, using the maximum limitation method, study was conducted on four soil mapping units identified in the sub-watershed. Results indicate that total organic carbon stock (soil, litter plus live vegetation) in the sub-watershed ranged from 138.95 ton ha-1 in the crop land to 496.26 ton ha-1 in the natural forest. The soil organic carbon stock was found to be relatively higher than that of the vegetation carbon stock in the natural forest and coffee agroforestry land uses. The results of suitability evaluation revealed that the maximum current and potential (after corrective xix measures are taken) land suitability class for production of late-maturing sorghum (180-240 days cycle), maize (180-210 days crop cycle), finger millet (120 – 150 days cycle) and coffee in the sub-watershed is marginally suitable (S3c). The maximum current and potential land suitability for upland rice (120 days) is not suitable (N2c). The major permanent limiting factor is low mean temperature (14.6 C) of the growing period in the study area as compared to the optimum temperature required for optimum growth of the selected crops. The major soil and landscape limitations include steep slope, poor drainage of low-lying areas, shallow effective root zone in the upper slopes, low organic matter and available P for sorghum and maize, high pH for maize and wetness for coffee. In all the climate models and emission scenarios, minimum and maximum temperature increment is high during June-July-August-September (JJAS) compared with the other seasons. The modest rise in minimum temperature and the slight increment of maximum temperature during the crop growing seasons (February-March-April-May (FMAM) and JJAS will benefit late-maturing sorghum and maize production in the study area. For the same model, the projected biomass yield and organic carbon sequestration of the two crop varieties varied with time slice and the type of emission scenario used. Generally, increasing biomass production and carbon sequestration were projected for Mid-century (MC) than Near-century (NC) for most of the models used. Late planting would increase sorghum biomass yield and the corresponding organic carbon as compared to early planting as projected by most of the models under both RCPs. Most models predicted an increase in maize biomass yield and organic carbon sequestration if supplementary irrigation is used. The results of this study indicate that the current land uses are not enhancing carbon sequestration because of their exploitative nature and the soil/landscape and climate are not optimum for production of the crops studied. The rise in temperature in the coming 50 years is expected to create a more favorable condition for production of late-maturing sorghum and maize varieties. In order to enhance carbon sequestration, soil productivity and crop yield, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the current land uses and their management require re-visiting. / College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Sciences)

The daunting tasks of responding to climate change and ensuring sustainable development (SD) are high on the political agenda among world leaders. From the onset, the clean development mechanisms (CDM) outlined in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol (KP), state that CDM activities should contribute to SD in the host country while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. Nevertheless, many scholars have criticized CDM for failing to deliver on its twin objectives. In Ethiopia in particular, there was lack of afforestation/reforestation (A/R) CDM research specific to the nation; specifically, research as to whether A/R-CDM met the stipulated twin objectives of SD and mitigation (reducing GHG). This study was conducted in the Humbo district of Wolyaita Zone, Southern Nations - Nationality and People Regional (SNNPR) state of Ethiopia, where A/R-CDM was implemented in pursuit of these twin objectives. Humbo is located between 6°46’48.47 and 6°41’04.28N; and between 37°48’35.44 and 37° 55’14.51E, between altitudinal gradients 1200 and 1900 m.a.s.l. The climate of the study area is characterized by annual temperatures between 25°C and 28°C, and by total annual rainfall between 800 to 1000 mm. The objectives of the study were to quantify the change of above ground and below ground carbon pools of native tree species; to assess the attractiveness of FMNR forestry practices; to examine A/R-CDM contributions to community level SD; and to assess the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policy founded on native tree species-based A/R-CDM. Data regarding above ground biomass (AGB) and below ground biomass (BGB) carbon pools of native tree species was collected through non-destructive techniques to quantify the change in carbon sequestration and associated carbon trading. A multi-stage random cluster household (HH) sampling approach was used to assess the attractiveness of farmer managed natural regeneration (FMNR) forestry practice. To examine the contribution of A/R-CDM to community level SD, three dimensions of SD were evaluated, namely; (local) environmental, social, and economic. Two indicators were considered per each dimension. With regard to local environmental SD, community access to natural resources, as well as changes to the local climate were considered. With regard to the social dimension, job creation and changes to social support structures were considered. With regard to the economic dimension, economic activities of the area and local skill development were considered. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were used to triangulate the survey as well as to assess policy perspectives. Results revealed that the Humbo native tree species based A/R-CDM, which employed FMNR forestry practices, sequestered a net total of 73,138; 84,848; 103,769 and 111,657 tCO2e along 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 years, respectively, across 2,728 ha. In terms of carbon leakage due to fuel wood collection activity displacement, a net zero was found since the average volume of fuelwood collected from the project area, after the area was closed off, was found to be 5.1 - 6.1 M3, while before the area was closed off, that number was 4.3 M3. This was due to the project employing FMNR forestry practices. Similarly, the leakage due to livestock grazing activity displacement also was found to be a net zero, since the number of animals grazing on land adjacent to the project area after four years of the area’s being closed off reached 11,383 cattle, 429 donkeys and 4,108 goats, unlike 8,684 cattle and 2,288 goats before the project. In other words, the number of livestock owned by farmers on the land adjacent to the project site was not adversely affected by the closing off of the site, which prevented grazing on the area allocated to A/R-CDM. The livestock management training provided by project developer improved the farmers’ rearing efficiency. Another expected leakage due to soil pitting for A/R was also found to be nil since soil disturbance did not take place because of FMNR practices. These results indicated that systematic regeneration of native tree species through FMNR forestry practices is an effective method to develop carbon sinks. From the point of view of FMNR attractiveness, the results revealed that the practice improved land cover change. The use of FMNR avoided the projected eight years reforestation investment cost of US$ 2,751,312.00 which could have been used if plantation forestry was undertaken. This showed that Humbo A/R-CDM might not have happened if FMNR is had not been introduced, as CDM has no pre-finance mechanism. With regard to community level SD contributions, the establishment of forest protection and development farmers’ cooperatives, as well as the granting of communal land-user rights certification, resulted in legal ownership of the land to the community, whereas before, the land was considered “no man’s land,” and subject to open access. The land-user rights and carbon ownership in turn empowered the community to sign a contract with an international carbon credit buyer. In terms of the local microclimate, the regeneration of native tree species was correlated with increased rainfall in the area in June, July, August and September (JJAS) and March, April and May (MAM). This suggested that the native tree species based A/R-CDM project played a role in improving the local microclimate. In terms of sociological SD, the study showed that new employment opportunities were created including tree pruning, thinning, forest guarding, and jobs at the community warehouse and community flourmill. The availability of employment opportunities was significantly higher for those who participated in the Humbo A/R-CDM, when compared to those who didn’t. In terms of social support structures, in less than ten years, seven Humbo A/R-CDM project owner farmers’ cooperatives, initially established as owners of the project, evolved into one forest protection and development Union. This enabled the institutionalization of grassroots organizations towards a common communal and international agenda of care for the environment. In terms of economic effects, the project enabled a carbon credit contract worth a total of US$ 3,873,298.00, signed at the sell rate of US$ 4.4 per tCO2e, for a total of 880,295 tCO2e across a 30 year crediting period. This is a new business model for the community, the country, and global businesses, all doing their part in climate change mitigation - CDM. As of the first A/R-CDM verification, the community received a total of US$ 321,807.2 in 2011. Consequently, the community received 373,331.2 in 2014, 456,583.6 in 2015 and 491,290.8 in 2016. In terms of revenue from logging, selective harvesting is planned to take place in years 12, 24 and 36. The community is projected to earn at least US$ 15,150.00 per ha1 (a total of US$ 3.9 million) from the first forest harvest in year 12 alone. These benefits in emission reduction (ER) and SD suggest that massive cross-dimensional benefits were foregone due to the country’s refusal to welcome A/R-CDM in its first commitment period, despite having 36,434,400 ha of land eligible for A/R. The research results in the area of policy perspectives indicated that the Humbo A/R-CDM project, the only one of its kind in Ethiopia, was made possible by environment related constitutional provisions, especially those pertaining to land-user rights, and the existence of a nationally standardized definition of forest that complies with international range. Additionally, the timely ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (KP), the establishment of a designated national authority (DNA) and a letter of approval by the DNA to the project developer were found to be enablers. Yet, defining land use, clarifying carbon ownership rights and bringing an inclusive benefit sharing mechanism for forest carbon are among the key instruments the country has yet to put in place to prove local readiness for such development opportunities. The Humbo A/R-CDM also undertook voluntary assessments to obtain additional certification in the form of the Climate Community Biodiversity (CCB) certification, and was certified to be of gold standard for its premium. However, there were no benefits to the host community and project developer from the CCB gold standard certification. Such ambiguity could have been cleared from the onset. This implied whenever going for market and/or result based climate change mitigation, it is necessary to understand the provisions. This study revealed that the Humbo native tree species-based A/R-CDM via FMNR forestry practices met the CDM twin objectives as specified in Article 12 of the KP in 1997, namely the double aims of achieving mitigations of GHG emissions and assisting developing countries inSD. Yet, more research is needed to understand all eligible A/R carbon pools sequestered at Humbo A/R-CDM site. / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Management)

Accounting / M.Com. (Accounting0

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Carbon dioxide (CO2) is seen as one of the main contributors to global warming. The use of fossil fuels for power production leads to large quantities of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere. The released CO2 can, however, be captured by retrofitting capture units downstream from the power plant called Post Combustion Carbon Dioxide Capturing. Post combustion CO2 capture can involve the reactive absorption of CO2 from the power plant flue gas steam. Reactive solvents, such as monoethanolamine (MEA), are used for capturing the CO2 and the solvent is regenerated in a desorber unit where the addition of heat drives the reverse reaction, releasing the captured CO2. However, the large energy requirement for solvent regeneration reduces the viability of employing CO2 capture on an industrial scale. This study focused on establishing a facility for CO2 capture studies – the main aim being the construction and validation of the results produced by the pilot plant facility. A secondary aim of this study was developing an Aspen Plus® Simulation method that would simplify simulating the complex CO2 capture process. Results from the simulation were to be compared to that of the pilot plant experiments. A pilot plant facility with a closed gas system, allowing gas recycling from both the absorber and the stripping columns, was set up. The absorber column (internal diameter = 0.2 m) was set up to allow one to obtain information regarding gas- and liquid temperatures and compositions at various column heights. Online gas analysers are used for analysing the gas composition at various locations in the absorber column. The pilot plant was initially commissioned with 20 weight % MEA in aqueous solution; however the main validation experiments were conducted with 30 weight % MEA in aqueous solution. 30 weight % MEA (aq) is generally used as the reference solvent for pilot plant studies. Pilot plant results with regards to the carbon dioxide concentration profiles for the absorber column as well as the regeneration energy requirement and capture rates compared well to literature data. The Aspen Plus® simulation was also set up and validated using published pilot plant data. The comparison of the pilot plant results from this study, to the results from the Aspen Plus® Simulation, showed good agreement between the two. The Aspen Plus® Simulation could further be used to validate pilot plant data that has been gathered outside the range of reported CO2 capture efficiencies. The Aspen Plus®model was evaluated at liquid-to-gas ratios of 1.7 and regeneration energies matching the pilot plant results. It was found that the model under predicts the capture efficiency of CO2 with an average of 4.0%. The model was corrected for this error at liquid-to-gas ratios of 2 and the fit of the model to pilot plant results improved considerably (R2-value = 0.965). Pilot plant repeatability was investigated with both 20 weight %- and 30 weight % MEA in aqueous solution. Temperature- and gas concentration profiles from the absorber column showed good repeatability. The maximum deviation of the regeneration energy and the capture efficiency from the calculation means were ±0.72% and ±1.40% respectively. The aims of this study have been met by establishing, and validating the results of a pilot plant facility for carbon dioxide capture studies. It has been shown that the pilot plant produces repeatable results. Results from the Aspen Plus® Simulation were validated and also match results from the established pilot plant setup. The simulation may prove to provide valuable information regarding the optimal operating conditions for the pilot plant and may aid in performing a full parametric study on the CO2 capture process. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Koolstofdioksied (CO2) word geklassifiseer as een van die bekendste kweekhuisgasse wat ʼn groot bydra lewer tot aardverwarming. Die gebruik van fossielbrandstowwe om na die energiebehoeftes van die mens om te sien lei daartoe dat groot hoeveelhede koolstofdioksied, hoofsaaklik vanaf kragstasies, vrygestel word in die atmosfeer. Daar is verskeie maniere hoe die CO2 uit die uitlaatgas van kragstasies verwyder kan word – die vernaamste hiervan is bekend as die Na-verbranding opvangs metode. Die opvangs van CO2 na verbranding van fossielbrandstowwe vir kragproduksie kan vermag word deur van reaktiewe absorpsie tegnieke gebruik te maak. Mono-etanol-amien (MEA) kan vir hierdie doeleindes aangewend word deur dit, in ʼn absorpsiekolom, in kontak te bring met die CO2. Die gereageerde oplosmiddel word geregenereer deur die oplosmiddel te verhit in ʼn stropingskolom. ʼn Bykans suiwer CO2 stroom word vrygestel. Die implementering van hierdie opvangtegniek op industriële skaal lei egter tot groot energieverliese vir die kragstasies. Die hoofrede hiervoor is die hoeveelheid energie wat benodig word om die oplosmiddel te regenereer vir hergebruik. Die hoofdoel van hierdie studie was gemik op die oprigting en inwerkstelling van 'n navorsingsfasiliteit vir studies aangaande die na-verbranding opvangs van CO2. Dit het behels die ontwerp, konstruksie en stawing van gelewerde resultate met resultate in die literatuur. 'n Sekondêre doel van hierdie studie was die metode-ontwikkeling vir die opstel van 'n Aspen Plus® Model wat die simulasie van die CO2 opvangsproses met ʼn reaktiewe oplosmiddel, MEA, vereenvoudig. Gesimuleerde resultate is vergelyk met resultate uit die literatuur. Die toetsaanleg, met 'n geslote gas stelsel, maak voorsiening vir die hersirkulering van gas wat vir eksperimentele doeleindes gebruik word. Die absorpsie kolom (interne diameter van 0,2 m) is opgestel sodat informasie aangaande die gas- en vloeistof temperature, sowel as gas- en vloeistof komposisies vanaf verskillende kolomhoogtes, bekom kan word. ʼn Aanlyn CO2 analiseerder word gebruik om vir CO2 in die prosesgas te analiseer. Die toetsaanleg is aanvanklik in bedryf gestel met ʼn 20 massa % MEA in waterige oplossing; die hoof eksperimente is egter uitgevoer deur van 30 massa % MEA in waterige oplossing gebruik te maak. Die laasgenoemde oplosmiddel word algemeen gebruik in die CO2 opvangs verwante navorsingsveld. Die resultate van die toetsaanleg, vergelyk goed met resultate in die literatuur. Die gesimuleerde Aspen Plus® resultate is ook vergelyk met resultate in die literatuur en die gevolgtrekking is gemaak dat die simulasie gebruik kan word om redelike akkurate voorspellings van die werklike prosesresultate te gee. Die simulasie is verder ook gebruik om resultate, verkry vanaf die opgerigte toetsaanleg, te verifieer en ʼn goeie ooreenstemming tussen die gesimuleerde en die eksperimentele resultate is waargeneem. ʼn Verder gevolgtrekking aangaan die Aspen Plus® simulasie metode was dat dit in die toekoms ʼn groot doel kan dien in die optimeringsproses van toetsaanlegte waar navorsing aangaande die na-verbranding opvang van CO2 gedoen word. Die Aspen Plus® model is geëvalueer by ‘n vloeistof-tot-gas-verhouding van 1,7 en ooreenstemmende toetsaanleg resultate, aangaande die hoeveelheid energie wat ingesit is vir die regenerasie van die oplosmiddel. Die onakkuraathede in die model, met betrekking tot die voorspelling van die hoeveelheid CO2 wat vasgevang sal word, is hierdeur bepaal en die model is daarvoor aangepas. Resultate van die verbeterde model vergelyk baie goed met die toetsaanleg resultate – ʼn R2-waarde van 0.965. Die herhaalbaarheid van die toetsaanleg resultate is ondersoek en ʼn goeie herhaalbaarheid van die temperatuur- en CO2 konsentrasieprofiele is verkry. Die toetsaanleg dui ook goeie herhaalbaarheid met betrekking tot die effektiwiteit waarmee die CO2 uit ʼn gasstroom verwyder word (± 1,40%), sowel as die hoeveelheid energie wat benodig word vir regenerering van die oplosmiddel (± 0,72%). Die doelwitte van hierdie studie is bereik deur die oprigting en verifiëring van resultate gelewer deur 'n toetsaanleg vir studies aangaande die na-verbrandingsopvang van CO2. Die herhaalbaarheid van toetaanleg resultate is bewys. Resultate van die Aspen Plus® simulasie stem ooreen met resultate in die literatuur sowel as resultate van die toetsaanleg wat opgerig is in hierdie studie.

Abstract In Paper [I], I develop the FOR-DICE model to analyze optimal global forest carbon management. The FOR-DICE is a simple framework for assessing the role of the boreal, tropical, and temperate forests as both a source of renewable energy and a resource to sequester and store carbon. I find that forests play an important role in reducing global emissions, especially under ambitious climate targets. At the global level, efforts should focus on increasing the stock of forest biomass rather than increasing the use of the forest for bioenergy production. The results also highlight the important role of reducing tropical deforestation to reduce climate change. In Paper [II], I develop the FRICE to investigate the role of two key efforts to increase the stock of forest biomass, namely, afforestation and avoided deforestation. FRICE is a multi-regional integrated assessment model that captures the dynamics of forest carbon sequestration in a transparent way and allows me to investigate the allocation of these actions across space and time. I find that global climate policy can benefit considerably from afforestation and avoided deforestation in tropical regions, and in particular in Africa. Avoided deforestation is particularly effective in the short run while afforestation provides the largest emissions reductions in the medium run. This paper also highlights the importance of not solely relying on avoided deforestation as its capacity to reduce emissions is more limited than afforestation, especially under more stringent temperature targets. In Paper [III], we investigate how uncertainties linked to the forest affect the optimal climate policy. We incorporate parameter uncertainty on the intrinsic growth rate and climate effects on the forest by using the state-contingent approach. Our results show that forest uncertainty matters. We find that the importance of including forest in climate policy increases when the forest is subject to uncertainty. This occurs because optimal forest response allows us to reduce the costs associated with uncertainty. In Paper [IV], we explore the implications of asymmetries in climate policy arising from not recognizing forest carbon emissions and sequestration in the decision-making process. We show that not fully including carbon values associated with the forest will have large effects on different forest controls and lead to an increase in emissions, higher carbon prices, and lower welfare.  We further find, by investigating the relative importance of forest emissions compared to sequestration, that recognizing forest emissions from bioenergy and deforestation is especially important for climate policy.

Land-use change is the single most important global driver of changes in biodiversity. Such changes in biodiversity, in turn, are expected to influence the functioning of ecosystems and their resilience to environmental perturbations and disturbances. It is widely recognised that the use of functional traits and functional diversity is best for understanding the causes and functional consequences of changes in biodiversity, but conceptual development has outpaced empirical applications. This thesis explores these ideas in grazing systems, which are expected to undergo rapid intensification of fertiliser use and grazing pressure to meet the growing global demand for livestock products. First, a flexible framework for measuring different facets of functional diversity is described, and a new multidimensional functional diversity index, called functional dispersion (FDis), is presented. Second, two vegetation sampling methods are compared with regard to their ability to detect changes in vegetation composition. Third, shifts in plant trait distributions following land-use changes are quantified and compared to null models, and a maximum entropy approach is used to quantify the direction and strength of selection on each trait. Fourth, it is shown that these shifts in trait distributions have cascading effects on primary production, litter decomposition, soil respiration, and ultimately soil carbon sequestration. Finally, data from 18 land-use intensity gradients are used to show that land-use intensification reduces functional redundancy and response diversity, two components of biodiversity that are thought to influence ecosystem resilience to future disturbances. This study illustrates (i) the importance of considering species functional differences to understand how plant communities react to changes in soil resource availability and grazing pressure, and (ii) how such changes directly, indirectly, and interactively control ecosystem functioning, as well as (iii) increasing the vulnerability of ecosystems to future disturbances.

O aumento das concentrações dos gases-estufa, principalmente o dióxido de carbono, e as mudanças climáticas se tornaram assuntos científico, econômico e político importantes nos últimos anos. O Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo, do Protocolo de Kyoto concede créditos de carbono comercializáveis para projetos que promovam o seqüestro de carbono nos países em desenvolvimento. Portanto, avaliar a capacidade de absorção de CO2 pela vegetação terrestre é um aspecto importante, o que justifica o interesse em desenvolver modelos de fluxo e troca desse gás em diferentes escalas. O desenvolvimento desses modelos é dificultado pela não-linearidade dos processos ecofisiológicos. Este trabalho apresenta um método de modelagem de fotossíntese no nível da folha, como um primeiro passo para um método de quantificação do potencial de seqüestro de carbono. A técnica utilizada foi a de redes neurais artificiais, uma vez que ela permite ajustar relações não lineares entre as variáveis de entrada e de saída. O trabalho foi divido em duas partes: fitomonitoração e modelagem. A fitomonitoração foi realizada em jatobá (Hymenaea courbaril), durante um ano. Medindo-se variáveis fisiológicas: taxa de fotossíntese, taxa de transpiração, condutância estomática, temperatura da folha, e fluorescência, e variáveis ambientais: concentração de CO2, radiação fotossintética ativa, umidade relativa e temperatura do ar. Uma quantidade de dados inédita para esse tipo de experimento e para essa espécie vegetal foi obtida. A análise dos resultados da fitomonitoração mostra características importantes sobre o comportamento das variáveis fisiológicas em plântulas de jatobá e das variáveis ambientais de seu entorno, casa de vegetação, nas quatro estações do ano. Os dados coletados foram utilizados para a modelagem da rede neural. Os treinamentos foram realizados com diferentes combinações de variáveis de entrada para observar qual era o conjunto de variáveis às quais a rede respondia melhor. A análise dos resultados dos treinamentos mostrou que com a técnica de redes neurais é possível atingir uma aproximação da função fotossíntese com 92% de acertos para entradas com dados filtrados. / The increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, mainly carbon dioxide, and the climatic changes have become important scientific, economic, and political subjects in the past years. The Kyoto Protocol establishes the Clean Development Mechanism, which grants carbon credits for projects that promote the sequestration of carbon in developing countries. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the CO2 absorption capacity by terrestrial plants, and this requires the development of gas flow and gas exchange models in different scales. That development is usually complicated, because the ecophysiological processes are non-linear. This work presents a method to model photosynthesis at the leaf level, as a first step toward quantifying the potential of carbon sequestration. The technique used was artificial neural networks (ANNs), as it allows the adjustment of non-linear relationships between input and output variables. The work was divided in two parts: phytomonitoring and modeling. The phytomonitoring was accomplished in jatoba (Hymenaea courbaril) during one year. The following physiologic variables were measured: photosynthesis rate, transpiration rate, stomatal conductance, leaf temperature, and fluorescence; and environmental variables: CO2 concentration, photosynthetic activity radiation, relative humidity, and air temperature. An unprecedented amount of data for that type of experiment and for that plant species was obtained. The analysis of these data showed important characteristics about the relationship of the physiologic variables in Hymenaea courbaril and the environmental variables, in the four seasons. The data collected were used for the modeling and fine-tuning of the neural network. The network was trained with different combinations of input variables to observe to which group of variables the neural network responded better. The analysis of the training results showed that with the ANN technique it is possible to achieve a very good approximation of the photosynthesis function, with 92% success rate for entries consisting of filtered data.