Orientador: Carla Kazue Nakao Cavaliero / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T10:55:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lopes_DaviGabriel_D.pdf: 26107046 bytes, checksum: d57644d6634b5c3909c4f246fc86a5bd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: Atingir o desenvolvimento sustentável é algo relativo e difícil de ser mensurado, haja vista a complexidade do tema e as discussões em diversas esferas institucionais, porém o passo para se discutir esse tema no âmbito da geração de energia elétrica passa necessariamente pelas emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEEs). Isso porque o Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL) está consolidado em esfera mundial como uma ferramenta que mensura e aponta os possíveis benefícios socioambientais de atividades de projetos executados em países em desenvolvimento que utilizam, por exemplo, fontes de energia renováveis. Assim, a presente tese busca inserir os Sistemas Fotovoltaicos Conectados à Rede (SFCR) nesse contexto e utiliza a Chamada Estratégica nº 13 da ANEEL (Chamada 13) para avaliar quantitativamente a sua contribuição para a redução das emissões de CO2e. A partir da estimativa da energia elétrica gerada pelos 13 projetos aprovados nessa Chamada, realizada com o Software PVsyst 6.1.0, e da aplicação da metodologia aprovada pela UNFCCC, adequada às condições de geração, foi estimada a emissão evitada de CO2e com a inserção dessa energia na rede do Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN). Além disso, descreveu-se e analisou-se a contribuição desses projetos para o desenvolvimento sustentável, avaliação indispensável para qualquer projeto de MDL. Dentre os resultados encontrados verificou-se que a geração de energia elétrica total é de 25.619 MWh/ano e que a Chamada 13 pode evitar emissões de 6.285 tCO2e/ano, usando o ano base 2011; e 11.229 tCO2e/ano, no ano base 2012. Os projetos de SFCR podem colaborar para o desenvolvimento sustentável gerando 454 "empregos solares" diretos, aumentando direta e indiretamente a renda da população local, contribuindo para a capacitação tecnológica nacional e auxiliando diversos setores da economia brasileira que fazem parte da cadeia dos SFCR. Ao final, visando aplicar os resultados obtidos, preencheu-se o Documento de Concepção do Projeto (DCP), exigido para a submissão das atividades de projeto no âmbito do MDL, com os dados da Usina Solar de Tanquinho/CPFL, um dos 13 projetos aprovados na Chamada 13 e que foi adotado como projeto de referência para as estimativas realizadas nessa tese / Abstract: Achieving sustainable development is relative and difficult to measure, given the complexity of the issue and the discussions in institutional spheres, but the first step to discuss this topic in power generation necessarily involves the estimation of greenhouse gases emissions (GHGs). That is partly because the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a global tool consolidated that measures and indicates the possible social and environmental benefits of project activities implemented in developing countries that use renewable energy sources, for example. Thus, within the context describe above, this thesis has the objective to analyze the Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems of the Strategic Call n°13 from ANEEL to quantitatively evaluate its contribution to the reduction of emissions of CO2e. The estimation of electrical power generated by the 13 projects approved in this Call was held with the PVsyst Software 6.1.0, and then the methodology adopted by UNFCCC was applied to estimate avoided emissions of CO2e in the National Grid. Furthermore, the contribution of these projects to sustainable development was described and analyzed, which is an evaluation indispensable for any CDM project. Among the findings it was determined that the total electricity generation is 25,619 MWh/year and that can avoid emissions of 6,285 tCO2e/year , if using the base year 2011, and 11,229 tCO2e/year, if using base year 2012. The Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems projects can contribute to sustainable development by direct generating 454 "solar employments", as well as indirect jobs increasing the income of local people, encouraging the national technological capability and helping various sectors of the Brazilian economy. Finally, the results were applied and the Project Design Document (PDD) was filled in with data from the Solar Power Plant of Tanquinho/CPFL, one of 13 projects approved on Call 13. This document is required for project activities under the CDM, and it was adopted as the reference design for the estimates made in this thesis / Doutorado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Doutor em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

Nowadays the mitigation of climate change and the reduction of greenhouse gases are one of the priorities in the international affairs. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of the products generated according to this request. For China, CDM brings advanced technologies in terms of energy saving and emission reduction, and driving forces for sustainable development, hereby the development of CDM projects is in full swing in China so far. However, it is not easy to decide which type of CDM projects is suitable for a certain city or region, which project contributes more to sustainable development compared with others, when it comes to several alternatives. In this case, decision-makers require a tool to help make a rational decision. As one of the approaches of assisting in making decisions, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is able to provide assistance for decision-makers to compare the contribution of discrepant CDM projects to sustainable development. Moreover, a case study is taken between two typical CDM projects: HFC23 decomposition project and small-scale hydropower project, so as to check if AHP is useable. The result of the case study indicates that HFC23 decomposition project contributes more than small-scale hydropower plant project to sustainable development, which is not in line with China’s CDM development trend for these two projects (NCCCC, 2005), due to the different represented interests of the study group and the real decision-makers. Nevertheless, the result is rational and valid since there is nothing wrong with the AHP method and its application. In addition, in order to improve the effect of assisting in decision making, AHP was tried to be improved in three respects: impairing subjectiveness, avoiding rank reversal and improving accuracy. Even though for AHP itself, DEA/AHP approach could successfully eliminate the subjectiveness, however when it comes to this very case: compare CDM projects in terms of contribution to sustainable development in China, it cannot play an effective role. Moreover, PCA/AHP method cannot eliminate the subjectiveness at the root either. The framework method provides a possibility in theory to increase objectiveness. Two expects provided a feasible way to avoid rank reversal in their article, and the two pathways of improving results accuracy mentioned in this thesis are considered inappropriate in this case. On the other side, concerning AHP application, how to covert realistic issues to AHP structure, how to get desirable initial information, and how to avoid limitation generated by considerable criteria, sub-criteria and alternatives are considered as the difficulties which should be paid attention. In future, AHP could be applied frequently and effectively concerning providing assistance in making decisions in China, if the stakeholders as many as possible are involved in decision-making process.

Com base na Nova Economia Institucional, o foco desta pesquisa foi o de identificar os custos de transação existentes nos projetos de MDL (Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo) e investigar se eles são barreiras para o desenvolvimento do projeto, e se podem afetar a eficiência de projetos já implantados. Mais especificamente, foram analisadas as variáveis que afetam as diferenças entre as reduções de emissões estimadas nos projetos de MDL e as reduções realmente verificadas (Sucesso de Redução - SR), depois do projeto implantado e monitorado. A fim de cumprir esse objetivo, esta pesquisa contou com levantamento de dados secundários relativos aos projetos de MDL realizados em todo o mundo, e dados primários relativos aos projetos brasileiros de MDL. A análise das informações mostrou que os países mais relevantes em número de projetos são Índia, China, Brasil, mas este ranking se altera dependendo da variável analisada (por exemplo, volume de emissão reduzida ou estimada). Os setores mais relevantes em volume de redução são de HFC, N2O, mas este perfil se altera quando analisado o número de projetos, ficando em primeiro lugar biomassa, hidroelétrica e energia eólica. Em relação ao SR, a maior parte dos projetos não apresenta eficiência satisfatória. No entanto, em volume de reduções a maior parte dos projetos cumpre mais que 91% de SR. Os setores mundiais mais eficientes são N2O e HFC (Brasil N2O e troca de energia fóssil), e os setores de resíduos sólidos e agricultura (Brasil, agricultura e resíduos sólidos) são os menos eficientes. Finalmente, esta pesquisa conclui que custos de transação afetam o sucesso da redução de MDL, e os mais importantes são os custos ex-ante, resultantes de problemas de falhas de informação (como, por exemplo, problemas com as organizações que intermedeiam o processo dos MDLs) e problemas de mensuração (problemas relacionados com metodologias dos MDLs). / Based on the New Institutional Economics, the focus of this research was to identify transaction costs in CDM projects (Clean Development Mechanism) and investigate if they can affect project efficiency, and also if they create project development barriers. More specifically, this research analyzed the variables that could affect the differences between CDM estimated emission reduction projects and actual reductions obtained (Reduction Success - RS) after the project has been implemented and monitored. To fulfill this goal, this research included a secondary global CDM projects data survey, and primary data survey related to Brazilian CDM projects. Data analysis showed that the most important countries in terms of number of projects are India, China, Brazil, but depending on the variable analyzed (for instance, emission reduction volume) this ranking could change. The most relevant sectors in emission reduction volume were HFCs, N2O, but this would change when we analyze number of projects, where biomass would come first, followed by hydroelectric and wind energy. When considering RS, most projects do not show satisfactory performance. However, in terms of emission reductions amount, most of the projects achieve more than 91% RS. The most efficient sectors in the world are HFC and N2O (in Brazil, N2O and fossil fuel), and the least efficient sectors are solid waste and agriculture (in Brazil, agriculture and solid waste). Finally, this research concludes that transaction costs affect the success of CDM reductions, and the most relevant are ex-ante costs, resulting from information problem gaps (these problems relate to parties involved in the CDM process) and measurement problems (CDM methodologies).

A presente pesquisa teve como objetivo identificar a incidência de impactos econômicos no patrimônio das empresas brasileiras, chinesas e indianas provocados pela mensuração e reconhecimento ao valor justo dos ativos provenientes de Reduções Certificadas de Emissões (RCEs) geradas em seus processos produtivos, com a implementação de projetos de Mecanismos de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDLs), durante o período de 2005 a 2012. Consideraram-se os estímulos oferecidos com as diretrizes do Protocolo de Quioto e a representatividade de implementações de projetos de MDLs da China, da Índia e do Brasil, para apresentar, com base em pesquisas descritiva, analítica e quantitativa, uma proposta de mensuração contábil das RCEs, capaz de evidenciar os fluxos futuros de seus benefícios econômicos, partindo-se do modelo de Ratnatunga, Jones e Balachandran (2011). Para tanto, trabalhou-se com a hipótese de que as RCEs não estão sendo mensuradas ao valor justo enquanto ativo, fato este que tem inviabilizado a evidenciação dos efeitos patrimoniais dos fluxos de caixa futuros. Descreveu-se a teoria da mensuração contábil como suporte ao valor justo; discutiu-se os padrões contábeis existentes nos países mencionados e as principais características que envolvem as adoções das International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) em cada um deles, com foco na mensuração contábil ao valor justo, aceita pelo International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). As orientações contábeis internacionais emanadas para contabilização das RCEs foram apresentadas para analisar o cenário atual de desenvolvimento do tratamento contábil atribuível ao ativo em questão. Assim, detectou-se que a mensuração das RCEs tem sido pouco discutida. Sugeriu-se que com a efetivação do registro dos projetos de MDLs junto ao Conselho Executivo da United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as RCEs passem a ser reconhecidas ao valor justo e como ativos intangíveis desenvolvidos internamente por parte das entidades hospedeiras dos projetos de MDLs, em contrapartida ao Patrimônio Líquido (PL), até o momento de sua realização. A base para mensuração do valor justo proposta foi os valores de mercados ativos. Em função do lapso temporal que estarão gerando benefícios econômicos, realizou-se projeção financeira sobre as quantidades potenciais constantes estimadas de Reduções Esperadas (REs) para todo o período de desenvolvimento das atividades dos projetos, utilizando-se uma taxa Euribor para desconto de seus valores futuros ao presente. De posse dessas variáveis, os valores justos das REs de 31 projetos de MDLs brasileiros, 379 chineses e 318 indianos, foram projetados sobre o valor do PL de 15 empresas brasileiras, 56 chinesas e 183 indianas componentes da amostra da pesquisa, com apoio do teste estatístico não-paramétrico Wilcoxon. Os resultados da pesquisa forneceram indícios de que a mensuração ao valor justo das RCEs, e seu reconhecimento enquanto ativo intangível, poderia ter representado um impacto positivo no grupo de contas patrimoniais das empresas participantes da pesquisa. Assim, a aplicabilidade empírica da mensuração ao valor justo das RCEs embasada em discussões teóricas já existentes, possibilitou a realização de avaliações desse ativo enquanto item patrimonial capaz de gerar efeitos econômicos positivos no patrimônio das entidades localizadas em países em desenvolvimento, durante a primeira fase do Protocolo de Quioto. / This research aimed to identify the incidence of economic impacts on equity of Brazilian, Chinese and Indian companies caused by the measurement and recognition at fair value of the assets from Certified Emission Reductions (CER) generated in their production processes, with the implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) projects from 2005 to 2012. It was considered the incentives offered to the guidelines of the Kyoto Protocol and the representativeness of CDM projects implementation of China, India and Brazil, to present, based on descriptive, analytical and quantitative research, a proposal for accounting measurement of CER, able to enhance the future flows of its economic benefits, based on the Ratnatunga, Jones and Balachandran (2011) model. Therefore, it worked with the hypothesis that the CER are not measured at fair value as assets, a fact that has made impossible the disclosure of balance sheet effects of future cash flows. It was described the theory of accounting measurement as support at fair value. It was discussed existing accounting standards in those countries and the main characteristics that involve the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in each of them, focusing on accounting measurement at fair value, accepted by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). The international accounting guidelines issued for accounting of CER were presented to analyze the current scenario of development of the accounting treatment attributable to the asset. Thus, it was found that the measurement of CERs has been little discussed. It was suggested that with the realization of the registration of CDM projects with the Executive Council of the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC), CER start to be recognized at fair value as intangible assets developed internally by the host entities of CDM projects, in contrast to Equity, until the moment of its realization. The basis for measuring fair value proposition was the values of active markets. Depending on the time gap that will generate economic benefits, a financial projection on potential constants estimated quantities of Expected Reductions (ER) for the whole period of development of project activities was carried out, using a Euribor rate to discount their future values to the present. With these variables, the fair values of ER from 31 Brazilian CDM projects, 379 Chinese and 318 Indians were simulated on the value of equity of 15 Brazilian companies, 56 Chinese and 183 Indian components of the survey sample, with test support statistical non-parametric Wilcoxon. The survey results provided evidence that the fair value measurement of CER, and its recognition as an intangible asset, could have represented a positive impact on the group balance sheet accounts of the participating research companies. Thereby, the empirical applicability of the fair value measurement of CER grounded in existing theoretical discussions, made it possible to carry out assessments of this asset as a heritage item capable of generating positive economic effects on equity of entities located in developing countries, during the first stage of the Kyoto Protocol.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 SaraGodoy.pdf: 5804152 bytes, checksum: baeceffd1a1f8912ffc807d85cb63398 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-10-18 / The purpose of this work is to present the limits and benefits of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Projects implementation. The supplemental objectives are the limits and potentialities evaluation of the Kyoto Protocol and the Tools for the Demonstration and Assessment of Additionality analysis, that is an tool proposed by CDM Executive Committee enabling the companies who propose the CDM projects to prove the additionality of its projects. The Protocol firmed in 1997 during COP 3 (3rd Conference of Parts) of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in Kyoto, determined emissions ceiling for some developed countries, considering an institucional apparatus to provide support to the process implementation. In order to make flexible the goals fullfilment, the Protocol creates mechanisms (the Mechanism of Clean Development, the Joint Implementation and the Emissions Trade) that also allow the fullfilment of the reduction objectives. The countries can reach its reduction goals, purchasing emission reduction from other countries. Therefore, these tools enable and improve the carbon market. As relevant part of this work, the CDM appears as a great tool that if well used, can bring benefits for development countries, bringing up economic and enviromental advantages once these projects are implemented in its territories, promoting the sustainable development. There are still plenty of challenges ahead for the CDM and the Protocol development, as reduce the uncertainties of regulatory framework, minors transaction costs and institutional improvements that can be reached. Related to the Tools for the Demonstration and Assessment of Additionality, it fullfils with its function to demonstrate adittionnality, not limiting or promoting new CDM projects / O trabalho objetiva apresentar os limites e benefícios da implantação do Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL). Os objetivos subsidiários ao principal são a avaliação mais ampla dos limites e potencialidades do Protocolo de Kyoto e a análise mais específica do Teste de Adicionalidade, que é um instrumento proposto pelo Comitê Executivo do MDL com o intuito de que os proponentes de projetos de MDL possam comprovar se seus projetos são adicionais. O Protocolo firmado em 1997 durante a COP 3 (3º Conferência das Partes) da Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudanças do Clima (CQNUMC), em Kyoto, determinou um teto de emissões para vários países desenvolvidos e propôs um aparato institucional para dar sustentação à implantação desse processo. Buscando uma maior flexibilidade no cumprimento das metas, o Protocolo cria mecanismos de flexibilização (o MDL, a Implementação Conjunta e o Comércio de Emissões) que procuram assegurar o cumprimento dos objetivos de redução. Os países podem alcançar suas metas de redução por intermédio de compras de reduções de emissão de outros países. A criação dessas ferramentas possibilita, portanto, o surgimento de um mercado de certificados de carbono. Como parte relevante desse trabalho, o MDL aparece como uma grande ferramenta, que se bem utilizada, pode ser muito benéfica aos países em desenvolvimento, pois pode trazer vantagens econômicas e ambientais com a implantação dos projetos em seus territórios, promovendo assim o desenvolvimento sustentável. Há vários obstáculos a serem transpostos para o maior desenvolvimento do MDL e do Protocolo, como maior regulação, menores custos de transação e melhorias institucionais que podem ser obtidas. Quanto ao Teste de Adicionalidade ele cumpre com sua função de demonstrativo de adicionalidade, não sendo nem limitador nem promotor de novos projetos.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:22:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Fernanda Brusa Molino.pdf: 2400362 bytes, checksum: 398405a7c8529d68f2fab1d6fff2f18e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-11-05 / Industrialization, that was already seen as synonymous of progress and hope of a better future for most nations, reaches the XXIth century facing many detractors and being seen as a major threat because of its voracious consumption of raw material which exhausts seas, forests, soil, subsoil and releases harmful gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect, causing the reaction of sectors of society concerned with the legacy that will be let to future generations. Among most harming sectors, are mining and related industry, whose degrading and polluting activities demonstrates the need for quality control and environmental monitoring. This study seeks to contextualize the concern about global warming and the rise of international treaties on the subject for the defense of the environment, mentioning Kyoto Protocol, Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC/FCCC), the conferences between the parties, and also the Brazilian legislation related to the issue of climate change mitigation. The study seeks to know about the flexibility mechanisms proposed by Kyoto Protocol, aiming to achieve emission reductions by developed countries signatories. The research analyzes the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the Certified Emission Reductions (CER) and the efficiency of these instruments as a form of environmental compensation, highlighting the various modalities, to finish with the presentation of the carbon market and CDM related projects that help in global warming mitigation undertaken by mining sector. Among the findings, it appears that compensation measures are able to meet the recommendations of the Kyoto Protocol and to assist in combating the adverse effects of mining to the environment / A industrialização, antes sinônimo de progresso e esperança de um futuro melhor para a maioria das nações, alcança o século XXI enfrentando muitos detratores e sendo vista como grande ameaça em razão da voracidade no consumo de matéria-prima que exaure os mares, as florestas, o solo, o subsolo e libera os nocivos gases que contribuem para o efeito estufa, provocando a reação de setores da sociedade preocupados com o legado que será herdado pelas gerações futuras. Entre os setores que mais poluem está a mineração e as atividades relacionadas, cuja ação degradadora para o meio ambiente demonstra a necessidade de controle de qualidade ambiental e monitoramento. Este estudo busca contextualizar a preocupação com o aquecimento global e o surgimento de tratados internacionais sobre o tema para a defesa do meio ambiente, fazendo menção ao Protocolo de Quioto, à Convenção- Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudança do Clima e às Conferências entre as partes, e também as legislações brasileiras relacionadas à questão da mitigação das mudanças climáticas. Buscam-se conhecer os mecanismos de flexibilização propostos pelo Protocolo de Quioto, visando atingir às reduções de emissão pelos países desenvolvidos signatários. A pesquisa analisa os Mecanismos de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL), as Reduções Certificadas de Emissões e a eficiência desses instrumentos como forma de compensação ambiental, destacando-se as várias modalidades, para finalizar com a apresentação do mercado de carbono e projetos relacionados com MDL que auxiliam na mitigação do aquecimento global empreendidos pelo setor minerário. Entre os achados, verifica-se que as medidas de compensação são capazes de atender às propostas do Protocolo de Quioto e auxiliar no combate aos efeitos adversos da mineração ao meio ambiente

近年來，全球氣候變遷問題已嚴重影響人類生活，而世界各國也逐漸意識到已開發國家和開發中國家必須共同合作以解決此問題。京都議定書中的清潔發展機制 (CDM) 即是讓已開發國家與開發中國家共同實踐減量目標的一種彈性減量機制，然而過去文獻對於其減排成效的看法並不一致。有鑒於此，本文以參與CDM計畫的20個開發中國家和16個已開發國家為研究對象，探討CDM計畫對其2003至2008年二氧化碳減量之影響。根據兩階段最小平方法之固定效果模型的實證結果顯示，CDM計畫能減少開發中國家的二氧化碳排放量，但經認證的排放減量額度 (CERs) 有被過量核發之現象；另一方面，CDM計畫對已開發國家的減排效果則無影響。 / In recent years, global climate change problem has affected humans’ life badly. Therefore, it is gradually realized that the developed countries and developing countries have to cooperate to solve the problem. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of the flexibility mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol, and it allows the developed countries, in cooperation with developing countries, to fulfill the emission-reduction targets. However, the emissions abatement effects of CDM in the literatures are diverse. Accordingly, this paper uses 20 developed countries and 16 developing countries as an empirical case to examine the impact of CDM on carbon dioxide emissions abatement from 2003 to 2008. According to fixed effects two-stage least squares, CDM projects reduced the carbon dioxide emissions of developing countries, but the certified emissions reductions (CERs) were excessively issued. On the other hand, CDM projects didn’t have an impact of emissions abatement on developed countries.

Au cœur de cette thèse réside l'application des méthodes d'optimisation et d'études empiriques pour traiter des questions de développement durable dans le secteur de l'électricité du Vietnam pour les 30 prochaines années. On examine les moyens des options énergétiques durables pour le secteur de l'électricité. La thèse s'organise en deux parties. (i) Dans la première partie, nous développons le modèle " bottom-up " de planification intégrée des ressources (IRP) pour fournir une évaluation plus exhaustive de l'état actuel et des perspectives d'avenir pour le secteur de l'électricité du Vietnam dans les trois prochaines décennies. Puis, en utilisant une analyse comparative et une analyse de la vulnérabilité qui est basée sur la simulation IRP, nous analysons les vulnérabilités auxquelles le développement du secteur devra faire face, en termes de dimensions économiques et socio-environnementales. Nous avons en outre développé le modèle IRP, représentant les coûts marginaux de réduction des émissions de carbone de manière réaliste en tenant compte des valeurs non nulles de carbone et de limitation des émissions de carbone, afin de simuler des options d'approvisionnement énergétique soutenables pour le secteur de l'énergie. (ii) Dans la deuxième partie, nous étudions les principaux obstacles contre une adoption plus large des énergies soutenables à l'aide d'enquêtes formelles parmi les experts nationaux. Ensuite, nous utilisons une approche d'analyse empirique pour examiner les différents outils politiques appropriés, y compris des instruments d'incitation / régimes et la réforme du secteur pour une telle durabilité du secteur de l'énergie. Pour la fin, nous analysons l'accès aux sources de financement possibles pour le développement durable dans le secteur de l'électricité du Vietnam.

With national cuts on solar PV subsidies and the current “oversupply” of panels, the global solar market is clearly threatened by a contraction. Yet, the need for more solar power is apparent, particularly for the world’s poor and vulnerable population. Instead of securing modern energy access for these people, trade interests have triggered a counterproductive solar trade war. This contemporary legal study addresses these issues by examining existent and potential instruments for stimulating a North-to-South solar capital flow. The research finds that recent reforms of the CDM will do little difference from previous deficiencies, as local investment barriers are not reflected in the monetary support of the clean development mechanism. Competing technologies are successfully keeping solar out of the game while baseline requirements are undermining the poor. Inspired by national renewable energy law and policy, international alternatives could address these shortcomings. While feed-in tariffs have been commonly advocated, the REC model seems far more appropriate in an international context. Its ability to be traded separately from the electricity makes it a perfect candidate as a substitute for the CDM. Entrusted with certain features it could address the geographical unbalance and provide with greater investor certainty. But the scheme(s) are under current WTO regulations required to be non-discriminatory, making it highly questionable to believe that developed countries would ever fund such incentive. It is not likely that solar capital exporters want Chinese solar PV manufacturers, who are already receiving significant production subsidies, to receive the same benefits as other producers. However, if countries adversely effected by subsidies where allowed to offset the injury by discriminating Chinese producers in international REC schemes, the Author believes that it would be easier to sell such a concept and implement it, for the benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as the world’s vulnerable and poor nations. However, this would require extensive reforms under WTO which the Author calls for.

To remain competitive in an environment with limited natural resources and ever-increasing operational costs, energy efficiency cannot be ignored. From this perspective the need for Energy Service Companies (ESCos) has arisen to address the supply constraint of national utilities and emission reductions faced by governments, to mitigate climate change. This has led to the development of two energy-efficiency finance business applications in South Africa, namely Demand-Side Management (DSM) under Eskom and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol. The technologies developed by ESCos, primarily for DSM energy efficiency projects, can be directly applied to generate Certified Emission Reduction (CERs) units, or carbon credits under the CDM business model. ESCo executives now need to decide which option will be more profitable; a once-off Rand/MW value from Eskom-DSM or an annual return on investment (ROI) from selling CERs over an extended crediting period. With a volatile CER price and bureaucratic registration procedures, it is very important that managers have all the right information at hand before making such decisions. A unique energy-efficiency investment decision model is developed that incorporates cost benefit analysis, based on the ESCos chosen risk profile. All attributes to the model of both DSM and CDM are defined, discussed and quantified into a decision analysis framework that would minimize risk and maximize profit. These attributes include life cycle analysis, technology transfer, cash flow, future CER prices, and associated project and political risks. The literature and background information that builds up to the development of this decision model serves as a complete handbook with guidelines to the South African energy services industry and investors. This study proposes a new energy-efficiency methodology under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that would increase the amount of CDM energy efficiency projects in South Africa and internationally. The methodology is designed to improve control system efficiency of any large electricity consumer instead of being equipment-specific. This implies that developers can use the same methodology regardless of whether the end-users are clear water pumping systems, compressed air systems, fans etc. This will reduce the cost of registering new methodologies with the UNFCCC and make CDM a more lucrative option to ESCos and other developers. This new energy-efficiency methodology and finance decision model was used in a case study to test its validity and accuracy. Two supporting technologies, REMS-CARBON and OSIMS, were developed in conjunction with HVAC International and tested at the clear water pumping system of Kopanang gold mine. The results from the case study demonstrated that this model is an acceptable tool in ensuring that ESCos gain maximum benefit from energy efficiency finance initiatives. Due to the experience gained with the modalities, procedures and pitfalls of DSM and CDM, further suggestions are made for new protocols to follow the Kyoto Protocol post-2012. South Africa and specifically ESCos could be very well positioned in a global “cap-andtrade” future carbon market. / PhD (Mechanical Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009