This dissertation investigates the effects of commodity disturbances on underlying economies. The analysis conducted in this dissertation comprises of two main themes. The first is investigating which commodity disturbances affect a country's GDP. I examine twenty three OECD countries and nineteen primary commodities in the energy, metal, food and timber sectors using a New Keynesian model that was estimated using the DSGE method. It was found the oil disturbances and to a lesser extend natural gas were the only commodity disturbances that affect a country's GDP. Also, it was found that a country's openness plays an important role in shaping the response to these shocks. The second theme expands on these findings by analyzing the effects of oil and gas disturbances on Trinidad and Tobago by asking (1) How long are the effects from oil and gas disturbances on the economy? (2) How do the long-run effects from oil and gas disturbances differ within the economy? VECM and SVEC methods were used, and the results show that the effects from an oil disturbance are larger in magnitude and duration when compared to a gas disturbance. In addition, the effects of oil and gas disturbances had opposite movements on Trinidad and Tobago's CPI, interest rate, and narrow money velocity, whereas both disturbances were positively correlated in regards to Trinidad and Tobago's output and effective real exchange rate in the long-run.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the use of commodity derivatives in the oil market. The thesis itself is divided into two main parts - theoretical and practical. The theoretical part is mainly focusing on the description of commodity derivatives in the oil market and the explanation of the mechanism of most often used derivative contracts. The second and more practical part of the thesis examine the use of these derivatives and all benefits and risks associated with trading in commodity derivatives. The potential threats arising from using derivatives as oil market contracts are explained on the example of corporate trading strategy of Matallgesellschaft AG.

Companies dependent on commodities for their production have to deal with volatile commodity prices and should employ measures for risk reduction as unfavourable spot price development may cause significant losses. A useful tool for diminishing the risk is hedging on futures market; however, this approach faces a crucial question of optimal hedge ratio determination (ratio between spot and futures units). Our thesis examines nine different ways of optimal hedge ratio estimation (naive, Sharpe, mean extended Gini coefficient, generalized semivariance, value at risk, and minimum variance through OLS, error correction, GARCH, and bivariate GARCH models) and evaluates their efficiency using the data on eight different commodities. The results differ across the respective commodities and cannot be generalized. Two conclusions resulting from the analysis refer to performance of naive and OLS hedge ratios and constant vs time varying hedge ratios. We find that complex hedge ratios, such as bivariate GARCH or VaR hedge ratios, do not outperform naive and OLS hedge ratios and that the results of constant hedge ratios are mostly as good as results of time-varying hedge ratios.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / Access to life-saving commodities and related services for women and children is a fundamental component of universal health coverage. However, countries confront numerous intractable challenges, such as aligning regulatory practices, enhancing health workforce capacity, and effectively managing supply chains, to ensure essential reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) commodities and services reach all communities. To address these entrenched obstacles, the UN Commission on Life Saving Commodities for Women and Children (UNCoLSC) in 2012 outlined a series of recommendations to improve access to 13 low-cost and high-impact commodities. This thesis explores the improvements and remaining barriers to accessing life-saving commodities for women and children in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In addition, this thesis showcases how effective data-informed decision-making can support prioritized RMNCH investments and equitycentered action.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第24162号 / 経博第656号 / 新制||経||301(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 黒澤 隆文, 准教授 IVINGS Steven, 教授 渡邊 純子 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

This study investigates the efficacy of various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models for short-term load forecasting (STLF) in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. A dual comparative approach is employed, evaluating models based on temporal features alone as well as in combination with actual and forecasted weather variables. The research emphasizes region-specific forecasting by capturing heterogeneous load patterns for ERCOT's individual weather zones and aggregating them to predict total load. Model evaluation is conducted using accuracy and bias metrics, with particular attention to high-demand months and peak load hours. The findings reveal that Generalized Additive Models (GAM) consistently outperform other models, most importantly during summer months and peak load hours. / Master of Science / This study investigates the efficacy of various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models for short-term load forecasting (STLF) in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. A dual comparative approach is employed, evaluating models based on temporal features alone as well as in combination with actual and forecasted weather variables. The research emphasizes region-specific forecasting by capturing heterogeneous load patterns for ERCOT's individual weather zones and aggregating them to predict total load. Model evaluation is conducted using accuracy and bias metrics, with particular attention to high-demand months and peak load hours. The findings reveal that Generalized Additive Models (GAM) consistently outperform other models, most importantly during summer months and peak load hours.

Seguindo a literatura mais recente sobre o tema, a presente dissertação teve por objetivo aferir as elasticidades da função de oferta brasileira de exportação de soja para a china à variabilidade da taxa de câmbio. Sob o viés que a alta inflação brasileira gera nas variáveis independentes, mais de um recorte para a instrumentalização dos diferentes determinantes foi considerado no design de pesquisa. Este adotoua cointegração por meio da abordagem do teste de Fronteiras de Pesaranpara a especificação concomitante de modelos ARDL(12,12,12,12) e ARDL (8,8,8,8,8) com doze ou oito trimestres-safra defasados, para o período compreendendo o primeiro trimestre de 1999 ao segundo de 2016. A busca por evidências para relações de longo prazo das exportações em toneladas de soja do Brasil para a China se deu em termos dos valores passados destas, bem como dos valores atuais e passados dos preços relativos, da demanda chinesa e da volatilidade cambial. A partir dos resultados destas projeções, o raciocínio sobre a influência da volatilidade cambial sobre as exportações de soja brasileira indica que esta, de fato, é positiva no longo prazo.Já no curto prazo são encontrados efeitos negativos. Assim, o aumento do risco pode diminuiras exportações dentro de um mesmo ano-safra, mas seu impacto é fundamentalmente positivo para o sojicultor. Dessa forma, como preconizado por Schultz (1980) os sojicultores são empreendedores que não são avessos ao risco. Pelo contrário, eles são entusiastas do risco, não apenas por este ser parte importante de suas decisões de investimento e financiamento, mas também porque a volatilidade maior aumenta a utilidade em exportar do sojicultor. / The objective of this dissertation was to assess the elasticity of Brazilian soybean exports to China in terms of the variability - or risk - of the exchange rate. In order to consider the bias of inflation volatility on the assessment of the independent variables, more than one methodology to calculate the different regressors was used. Projections were made using Pesaran´sbounds testapproach to cointegration, through the concomitant specification of ARDL (12,12,12,12) and ARDL(8,8,8,8,8) models consisting of up to twelve or eight lagged quarters- aggregated to the crop calendar- for the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2016. Elasticity estimations from this approach allowed a search for long-run forcing influence between the regressors and Brazil\'s soybean exports, in terms of past values- in tons- of these, as well as current and past values of relative prices, Chinese demand and exchange rate volatility measures. The results of these projections indicate that an increase in risk has indeed a positiveeffect in the long term, while within the crop-year the effects are found to be negative. Thus, an increase in volatility may decrease exports in the short term, but its impact is fundamentally positive to the soy farmer. Thus, as advocated by Schultz (1980), soybean farmers are entrepreneurs who are not risk averse. On the contrary, they are risk enthusiasts, not only because the bulk of their investment decisions are subject to uncertainty, but also because an increase in volatility increases the utility that a soybean farmer extracts from exports.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T10:34:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PAULO HENRIQUE COSTA MATTOS.pdf: 43665961 bytes, checksum: 9ab784137ae13b39a9e154900c2f7edb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-09-29 / This dissertation deals with the slavery of man today, where we can see that capitalism and economic globalization continue their subjugating those living exclusively from their workforce. In examining contemporary slavery in Brazil, we seek to understand slavery as a mechanism of accumulation of capital that prevails in Brazilian society by imposing just an economic condition unfavorable to thousands of workers, deprivation of liberty and generating social underdevelopment. Currently, the world economic globalization requires a new international division of labor that makes some countries mere exporters of primary products and agricultural commodities that are produced at the expense of slave labor, especially in poorer regions such as in the Amazon region, notably in Araguaia-Tocantins region, where agribusiness enslaving poor workers in Brazil, when they try to get some form of sustenance to their families. Given this situation, there is the struggle of CPT (Pastoral Land Commission) that has consistently struggled to combat slave labor, Brazilian law enforcing worker protection, as well as helping thousands of people who find themselves in this situation and humiliating unworthy. / Essa dissertação trata sobre a escravidão do homem nos dias atuais, onde podemos constatar que, o capitalismo e sua globalização econômica continuam subjugando os que vivem exclusivamente da sua força de trabalho. Ao analisar a escravidão contemporânea no Brasil, buscamos perceber a escravidão como um mecanismo de acumulação de capitais que prevalece na sociedade brasileira impondo justamente uma condição econômica desfavorável a milhares de trabalhadores, de privação da liberdade e geradora de subdesenvolvimento social. Atualmente, a globalização econômica mundial impõe uma nova divisão internacional do trabalho que faz de alguns países meros exportadores de produtos primários e commodities agrícolas que são produzidas à custa do trabalho escravo, principalmente em regiões mais empobrecidas, como na região da Amazônia Legal, notadamente na região Araguaia- Tocantins, onde o agronegócio escraviza trabalhadores pobres do Brasil, quando estes tentam conseguir alguma forma de dar o sustento a suas famílias. Diante dessa situação, destaca-se a luta da CPT (Comissão Pastoral da Terra) que tem lutado sistematicamente para combater o trabalho escravo, fazendo valer a legislação brasileira de proteção ao trabalhador, bem como auxiliando milhares de pessoas que se encontram nessa situação humilhante e indigna.

Submitted by Karen Britto (karenbritto@unipampa.edu.br) on 2018-05-23T14:53:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudia Guerra Disconzi - 2018.pdf: 2618311 bytes, checksum: 992a7f6adbd1b190b55d289e1b7c08b2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-23T14:53:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudia Guerra Disconzi - 2018.pdf: 2618311 bytes, checksum: 992a7f6adbd1b190b55d289e1b7c08b2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-19 / O mercado das commodities agrícolas é caracterizado por ser dinâmico e complexo. Os preços no mercado futuro das commodities são negociados em bolsas de valores e variam rapidamente de acordo com diversos fatores, como mudanças cambiais, variações climáticas, políticas governamentais, estoques mundiais, entre outros. Tendo em vista a instabilidade do mercado das commodities, este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a contribuição das redes neurais artificiais para a previsão de preços de commodities agrícolas no mercado futuro, avaliando o ajuste das redes como ferramenta estratégica no processo de tomada de decisão. Trata-se de uma pesquisa empírica, de caráter descritivo, com abordagem quantitativa. O método utilizado foi o de levantamento, por meio de dados secundários obtidos na base de dados do Cepea. Como resultados, desenvolveram-se redes com desempenho classificados como “ótimos” para todas as commmodities consideradas, o que demonstrou a alta previsibilidade das redes neurais artificiais. Através da construção de cenários de preços mensais para as commodities, verificou-se que as redes selecionadas são sensíveis às variações de alta e queda nos preços. Assim, as RNAs demonstraram ser uma ferramenta importante que pode auxiliar com sucesso os interessados em investir neste mercado, através da simulação do comportamento dos preços. / The commodities market is characterized by being dynamic and complex. Futures market prices are traded on stock exchanges and short-term variables such as exchange rate changes, future payments, government reports, world stocks, among others. Considering the instability of the commodities market, this work aims to analyze the construction of artificial neural networks for forecasting agricultural commodity prices in the future market, with the objective of evaluating the networks as a strategic measure in the process of making decision. It is an empirical research, of descriptive character, with quantitative approach. The method used was the survey, using data base results in the database of Cepea. As networks were developed with indicators as "optimal" for all commodities, which demonstrated a high predictability of artificial neural networks. Through the construction of monthly commodity scenarios, it was verified that the selected networks are sensitive to the variations of rise and fall in prices. Thus, the RNAs have proved to be an important tool that can successfully aid the search in this market, through the simulation of the behavior of prices.

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-07-10T17:56:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Ronald Tavares Pires da Silva.pdf: 1883129 bytes, checksum: 0768f9e3b1ed6c8014d5ad465c843ec8 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-10T17:56:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ronald Tavares Pires da Silva.pdf: 1883129 bytes, checksum: 0768f9e3b1ed6c8014d5ad465c843ec8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-31 / Nenhuma / Os trabalhos sobre estratégias de internacionalização e operações internacionais em cadeias de commodities são necessários e oportunos no momento em que as economias consolidadas e emergentes buscam por alternativas para expandir seus negócios em diferentes regiões do mundo. O presente trabalho teve como foco de análise avaliar as relações existentes entre as estratégias de internacionalização e decisões de estratégias de operações de empresas multinacionais, na cadeia de commodities, especificamente na soja do Brasil, no Estado de Mato Grosso. Buscou-se, em termos específicos, descrever as estratégias de internacionalização adotadas pelas multinacionais em países emergentes como o Brasil, analisar as características dos tipos das categorias de decisão das estratégias de operações internacionais, praticadas por essas corporações globais e verificar as relações existentes entre estratégias de internacionalização e operações internacionais na cadeia da soja brasileira. Entrevistaram-se dois CEO das duas maiores multinacionais do segmento do agronegócio mundial, em suas unidades localizadas na região do Centro-Oeste, no Estado de Mato Grosso e nos escritórios centrais em São Paulo (SP). Ainda se visitaram in loco três unidades de operações dessas empresas, para a compreensão das atividades desenvolvidas na cadeia da soja. Neste estudo desenvolve-se modelo de análise de conteúdo, com uso do software N-vivo como apoio para dados qualitativos. Como principais resultados apontam para uma grande similaridade em estratégias de internacionalização e de operações pelas empresas investigadas, a marcante presença das mesmas na coordenação e configuração da cadeia de commodities (soja). / The papers about strategies of internationalization and international operations in commodities chains are necessary and timely at the time the emerging and consolidated economies search for alternatives to expand their businesses in different regions of the world. This paper had as an analysis focus evaluating the existing relations between the strategies of internationalization and decisions of operation strategies of international companies, in the commodity chain, specifically in the soybean from Brazil, in the state of Mato Grosso. It was aimed in specific terms, describe the strategies of internationalization adopted by the multinational companies in emerging countries as Brazil, analyze the characteristics of the decision categories of the international operations strategies, practiced by these global corporations and verify the existing relations between the strategies of internationalization and international operations in the Brazilian soybean chain. Two CEOs from the biggest multinational companies of the global agribusiness segment in their units located in the Midwest, in the state of Mato Grosso and at the central offices in São Paulo (SP) were interviewed. Three units of this company were visited in loco for the comprehension of the activities developed in the soybean chain. In this study the model of content analysis is developed, using the software N-vivo as a support to qualitative data. As the main results link to a great similarity in strategies of internationalization and of operations by the investigated companies, the striking presence of those in the coordination and configuration of the commodity (soybean) chain.