Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis provides an interpretation of what happens during Enterprise Resource Planning Systems (ERP) adoption in the Public Sector and in particular Local Government using Sensemaking and Complexity Theory. Chapter 1 outlines the background and objective of the thesis including the methodologies used. In Chapter 2 the theoretical foundations of the study are discussed. The theories are carefully meshed together to provide a new angle to interpret and analyse what takes place in ERP adoption. Chapter 3 provides a detailed description of the case study, Programme Phakama. Programme Phakama implemented an Enterprise Resource Planning solution in the City of Johannesburg. Chapter 4 contains an explanation of what happened in other projects with the same mandate within the public service elsewhere in the world. This in comparison to what happened in Project Phakama, to highlight the similarities or differences during the evolvement of the projects. The last two chapters provide the interpretation and recommendations using the conclusion arrived at in Chapter 4 from a Complexity and Sensemaking perspective. There are no right or wrong answers in ERP projects, only good or bad decisions. The number of changes to be managed in ERP projects is overwhelming. Therefore many projects are challenged, regardless of success, failure or abandonment. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis interpreteer aspekte van die implementeringsproses van ‘Enterprise Resource Planning Systems’ (ERP) in die openbare sektor, en in die besonder op plaaslike regeringsvlak. Die interpetasie word gedoen met behulp van die sinmakingteorie van KE Weick en van kompleksiteitsteorie. Hoofstuk 1 bied ‘n oorsig oor die agtergrond en doelstelling van die tesis, sowel as die metodologiese aanpak. In hoofstuk 2 word die teoretiese grondslae van die tesis bespreek. Die teorie word geïntegreer om ‘n nuwe perspektief op die analise van ERP implementering te kan gee. Hoofstuk 3 bied ‘n gedetailleerde beskrywing van die geval wat hier ondersoek word, naamlik ‘Programme Phakama’ wat die implementering van ‘n ERP in die stad van Johannesburg behels het. Hoofstuk 4 span die net wyer om vergelykende gegewens van soortgelyke projekte elders te beskryf. Hoofstuk 5 ontleed die problematiek en toon dat die gebruik van kompleksiteitsteorie en insig in sinmaking help om die verskynsel beter te begryp. Hoofstuk 6 maak gevolgtrekkings vir die bestuur van sodanige projekte.

This thesis concerns decision procedures for fragments of linear arithmetic and their application to model-checking one-counter automata. The first part of this thesis covers the complexity of decision problems for different types of linear arithmetic, namely the existential subset of the first-order linear theory over the p-adic numbers and the existential subset of Presburger arithmetic with divisibility, with all integer constants and coefficients represented in binary. The most important result of this part is a new upper complexity bound of <b>NEXPTIME</b> for existential Presburger arithmetic with divisibility. The best bound that was known previously was <b>2NEXPTIME</b>, which followed directly from the original proof of decidability of this theory by Lipshitz in 1976. Lipshitz also gave a proof of <b>NP</b>-hardness of the problem in 1981. Our result is the first improvement of the bound since this original description of a decision procedure. Another new result, which is both an important building block in establishing our new upper complexity bound for existential Presburger arithmetic with divisibility and an interesting result in its own right, is that the decision problem for the existential linear theory of the p-adic numbers is in the Counting Hierarchy <b>CH</b>, and thus within <b>PSPACE</b>. The precise complexity of this problem was stated as open by Weispfenning in 1988, who showed that it is in <b>EXPTIME</b> and <b>NP</b>-hard. The second part of this thesis covers two problems concerning one-counter automata. The first problem is an LTL synthesis problem on one-counter automata with integer-valued and parameterised updates and with equality tests. The decidability of this problem was stated as open by G&ouml;ller et al. in 2010. We give a reduction of this problem to the decision problem of a subset of Presburger arithmetic with divisibility with one quantifier alternation and a restriction on existentially quantified variables. A proof of decidability of this theory is currently under review. The final result of this thesis concerns a type of one-counter automata that differs from the previous one in that it allows parameters only on tests, not actions, and it includes both equality and disequality tests on counter values. The decidability of the basic reachability problem on such one-counter automata was stated as an open problem by Demri and Sangnier in 2010. We show that this problem is decidable by a reduction to the decision problem for Presburger arithmetic.

Projects and programmes are inherently complex; the interaction of people, systems, processes and data within a dynamic environment creates an intricate network of agents whose behaviour can be unpredictable and unexpected. The management of this complexity is ordinarily concerned with the implementation of tools and techniques to ensure that projects are completed within the desired cost and time, at the agreed level of performance and quality – this is often referred to as the †̃iron triangleâ€TM. However, the impact of a dynamic external environment on the †̃softâ€TM boundaries of the project domain can lead to extreme difficulty in attempting to forecast or predict outcomes and system behaviours. This thesis contends that there is a clear desideratum for a new paradigm in project management practice and research that moves beyond the traditionalist (reductionist) approach to one that embraces, rather than attempts to simplify complexity. The research described in this thesis seeks to uncover the characteristics of complexity, in the context of projects and programmes, in an attempt to uncover if complexity is a factor in the determination of †̃valuableâ€TM outcomes. Subsequently, and through the theoretical lens of complexity theory, this research seeks to highlight the importance of our understanding and treatment of complexity in the execution and management of projects and programmes. The research further seeks to demonstrate how complexity thinking may inform a more sophisticated understanding of how projects, programmes and portfolios delivered successfully (Ziadat, 2017). The context of the research is the oil and gas (O & G) engineering sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. A two stage qualitative and quantitative methodology is applied, based on deductive reasoning. The first stage involves the development of a questionnaire and a series of unstructured interviews to gain an understanding of the practical consideration that emerges from the literature review. The second stage of the research involves the application of meta-analysis to study the correlation between the complexity factors identified in the first stage, aiming for heterogeneity, identification of patterns and directing to achieve robust conclusions by using sensitivity analysis. The thesis proposes a new model of complexity factors for oil & gas engineering projects in the MENA region. The model is designed to facilitate the analysis of the project complexity landscape and to define requirements for oil & gas organisations involved with the delivery of projects and programmes to cope with different complexity factors within and across the MENA region. The outcomes include substantial relationship between technical and health, safety & environment complexity factors and project performance despite the mediation of project management complexity factors, yet the organizational complexity factors can be observed at a significant level when project management in complexity factors are considered as a mediator in the model (Ziadat, 2016).

Submitted by Jordan (jordanbiblio@gmail.com) on 2017-04-04T16:50:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISS_2015_Gracieli da Silva Henicka.pdf: 44621169 bytes, checksum: 0564cd576f5da3c9d3914ef63b1ae491 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Jordan (jordanbiblio@gmail.com) on 2017-04-17T16:08:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISS_2015_Gracieli da Silva Henicka.pdf: 44621169 bytes, checksum: 0564cd576f5da3c9d3914ef63b1ae491 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-17T16:08:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISS_2015_Gracieli da Silva Henicka.pdf: 44621169 bytes, checksum: 0564cd576f5da3c9d3914ef63b1ae491 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-24 / Pesquisas apontam que é viável a inserção de conceitos relacionados à Teoria da Complexidade (TC) no ensino médio. O objetivo geral desse estudo foi averiguar a viabilidade e as dificuldades no processo de ensino-aprendizagem dos conceitos e princípios da Teoria da Endossimbiose Sequencial (TES) a luz da TC a partir de um produto educacional fundamentado em princípios da Teoria da Aprendizagem Significativa. O trabalho está fundamentado também na epistemologia de Kuhn, Maturana e Varela. Essa pesquisa investigou os conhecimentos prévios dos estudantes do segundo ano do ensino médio da Educação de Jovens e Adultos (EJA) acerca de conceitos de Ecologia, Evolução, Biologia Geral e Genética. Conceitos estes que apresentaram potencialidade para ancorar os novos conceitos relacionados à TES de Lynn Margulis, que foram abordados em seguida. Ao final da pesquisa produziu-se a título de produto educacional, um guia para o professor com orientações e sugestões de aprofundamento do tema, contendo ainda três apresentações em pptx, três textos-apoio para o professor, três textos-apoio para o aluno e sete testes. O material será disponibilizado no site do programa (http://fisica.ufmt.br/pgecn/) e da pesquisadora (www.alegriaeciencia.com.br). A metodologia foi quali-quanti com intervenção. A pesquisa aconteceu em Alta Floresta, MT e foi organizada em cinco encontros entre 19 de março de 2014 e 16 de abril de 2014. Participaram do estudo 94 alunos da EJA, sendo 37 do 2° ano noturno, 32 do 2° ano matutino e 27 do 2° ano vespertino. O 2° ano matutino apresentou em média, excluindo a entrevista, 66,51% de frequência nas atividades da pesquisa, o 2° ano vespertino 64,55% e o 2° ano noturno apenas 44,40%. A análise de todas as turmas juntas mostrou 57,44% de frequência média, o que sugere que os alunos faltaram muito aos encontros, especialmente os alunos do 2° ano noturno. Somente 77 alunos responderam ao pré-teste A onde se investigou o perfil dos alunos. Desses 63,64% são mulheres e 36,36% são homens. Ao analisar as turmas do dia esse cenário se repete, mas não é o caso da turma da noite, onde a maioria são homens na faixa etária de 18 a 22 anos, enquanto a faixa etária dos alunos do dia é mais diversificada, com a presença de alunos de até 62 anos. No tocante às aspirações pessoais a maioria dos alunos em todas as turmas demonstrou intenção em concluir o ensino médio e dar continuidade em sua formação, fazendo cursos técnicos e/ou faculdade. De maneira geral, os resultados das oficinas apontam algumas dificuldades de leitura e interpretação dos alunos o que dificultou o aprendizado, mas também apontam avanços na evolução da aprendizagem dos mesmos, há bons indícios de captação de significados conceituais que podem ser considerados precursores de aprendizagem significativa para alguns conceitos. Esse estudo demonstrou que é viável de inserção da Teoria da Endossimbiose Sequencial a luz da Teoria da Complexidade no ensino médio da EJA. / Researches show that the inclusion of concepts related to Complexity Theory (CT) is feasible in high school. The overall objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility and difficulties in the teaching-learning process of the concepts and principles of the Theory of Sequential Endosymbiosis (TSE) at the light of CT deriving from an educational product reasoned in the principles of the Theory of Meaningful Learning. The work is based also on Kuhn’s, Maturana’s and Varela’s epistemology. This research investigated the previous knowledge of students of the second year of high school of the Youth and Adult Education (EJA) about the concepts ecology of evolution, General Biology and Genetics. Such Concepts showed potential to anchor the new concepts related to TES by Lynn Margulis, which were covered below. At the end of the survey a teacher's guide with directions and issue of deepening suggestions has been created by way of educational product, still containing three presentations in PPTX, three texts-support for the teacher, three texts-support for the student and seven tests. The material will be available on the program website (http://fisica.ufmt.br/pgecn/) and researcher (www.alegriaeciencia.com.br). The methodology was qualitative and quantitative with participant observation. The research took place in Alta Floresta, MT and was organized in five meetings between March 19th 2014 and April 16th 2014. The participants were 94 students of EJA, 37 of the 2nd year from night shift, 32 of the 2nd year from morning shift and 27 the 2nd year from the afternoon shift. The morning shift group showed on average, excluding the interview, 66.51% attendance in the activities of research, the evening shift group 64.55% and the night shift group only 44.40%. The analysis of all the groups together showed 57.44% average rate, suggesting that students skipped many of the meetings, especially the students of the night shift. Only 77 students answered the pretest A which investigated the profile of the students. Of these, 63.64% are women and 36.36% are men. In analyzing the courses of the daytime, this scenario is repeated, but it is not the case of the night shift group, where most are men aged 18-22 years old, while the age group of students of the daytime is more diverse, with the presence students up to 62 years old. Regarding personal aspirations most students in each class demonstrated intention to complete high school and continue on their training, making technical courses and/or college. In general, the results from the workshops pointed to some difficulties in reading and interpreting of students hampering the learning, but also point advances in the evolution of learning, there was a good evidence of uptake of conceptual meanings that can be considered significant precursors to some e-learning concepts. This study demonstrated that it is feasible to insert Theory of Sequential Endosymbiosis at the light of Complexity Theory in high school of EJA.

Esta pesquisa busca analisar a política externa brasileira (PEB) dos últimos anos por meio do referencial teórico da teoria da complexidade. Parte-se do pressuposto de que uma linha-mestra histórica da PEB é a obtenção de um lugar de maior destaque para o Brasil na ordem internacional. No contexto do fim da Guerra Fria, a situação internacional e doméstica foi alterada, de modo a favorecer essa meta tradicional. Teoricamente, discute-se a limitação dos modelos conceituais lineares sobre política internacional, de modo a defender o referencial teórico da complexidade (não linear) como mais abrangente. Com base nisso, realizam-se dois estudos de caso. O primeiro é a histórica campanha brasileira pela reforma do Conselho de Segurança da ONU: argumenta-se que fracassou, entre outros motivos, por adotar uma abordagem linear, ineficaz para a abordagem de um \"wicked problem\". Outro estudo de caso é sobre o PAA-Africa, um programa descentralizado, adaptativo e flexível, que logrou sucesso. A conclusão é que a recente prática diplomática brasileira mistura iniciativas lineares e não lineares, com resultados diversos, o que dificulta a obtenção de sua meta histórica de maior protagonismo. / This research aims to analyze Brazilian foreign policy initiatives using complexity theory\'s (CT) conceptual framework. The basic assumption is that a key Brazilian historical international objective is to achieve a greater international role as a global player. With the end of the Cold War, international and domestic settings changed in a favorable way towards the fulfilment of this objective. Theoretically, it discusses the limitations of linear conceptual models on international politics, while it asserts that CT\'s nonlinear conceptual framework is more comprehensive. On this ground, two case studies are made. The first is about Brazil\'s historic campaign to reform the UN Security Council: the argument is that it failed, among other reasons, because it adopts a linear approach, one that is unsuitable to deal with a \"wicked problem\". The other case study is about PAA-Africa, a decentralized, adaptive and flexible program, which succeeded. The conclusion is that Brazil\'s recent diplomatic practice mixes linear and nonlinear initiatives, obtaining different results, and this is an obstacle for the country to achieve its goal of greater international protagonism.

The author views that the complexity of conflict implies that the African Union’s engagement with conflict – both in understanding and managing it – will benefit from an approach informed by the theory of complexity. Discusses the following questions: (1) What normative framework currently informs the African system of conflict management? (2) Is complexity theory compatible with the analysis and management of conflict? (3) What are the implications for conflict analysis and management? (4) What would a complexity approach add to the African system? / Thesis (LLM (Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa)) -- University of Pretoria, 2008. / A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Law University of Pretoria, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Masters of Law (LLM in Human Rights and Democratisation in Africa). Prepared under the supervision of Dr Patrice Vahard, Faculty of Law, University of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia / http://www.chr.up.ac.za/ / Centre for Human Rights / LLM

The importance of family involvement is highlighted by findings that parents’ behaviours, beliefs and attitudes affect children’s behaviour in a major way. The Family Maths programme, which is the focus of this study, provides support for the transformative education practices targeted by the South African Department of Education by offering an intervention which includes teachers, learners and their families in an affirming learning community. In this study participating parents were interviewed to investigate their perceptions of the Family Maths programme mainly in terms of their engagement, enjoyment and confidence levels. The major themes and ideas that were generated in this study include the development of positive attitudes, parents and children working and talking together, and the skills exhibited by Family Maths facilitators. These findings are analysed within the parameters of complexity science and the pre-requisite conditions for developing a complex learning community, viz. internal diversity, redundancy, decentralized control, organised randomness and neighbour interactions.

Global supply chains feature multi-tier systems encompassing many geographically dispersed and sequential partners operating across diversified product chains. This research attempts to examine the different mechanisms that reinforce the management of sustainability throughout complex multi-tier supply chain. Using a multi-case study of a sample of eight firms and relying on the foundations of complexity theory, this research recognises the complex operating environment of global multi-tier supply chains and reveals various mechanisms to effectively manage and facilitate the relationships with first- and lower-tier suppliers. Although institutional controls are important to manage the sustainability of first-tier suppliers, the findings posit that due to the inherent complexities of global multi-tier supply chains, duplicating institutional controls to lower-tier suppliers might not be effective. Therefore, firms should attempt to foster modest mechanisms that reinforce adaptation and self-organisation, for example, collaboration and guiding mechanisms, to effectively manage the sustainability of lower-tier suppliers. The research contributes to multi-tier sustainable supply chain management literature by exploring the different mechanisms to manage multi-tier supply chains and the inherent complexities that may impact on firms’ endeavours in achieving their sustainability goals. Managers can utilise different contingent mechanisms to effectively manage the relationships with suppliers that are beyond their immediate visibility.

Il a été observé que l'exécution des heuristiques de recherche aléatoire dépend d'un ou de plusieurs paramètres. Un certain nombre de résultats montrent un avantage des paramètres dynamiques, c'est-à-dire que les paramètres de l'algorithme sont modifiés au cours de son exécution. Dans ce travail, nous montrons que la complexité de la boîte noire sans biais de la classe de fonction de référence OneMax est $n ln(n) - cn pm o(n)$ pour une constante $c$ comprise entre $0.2539$ et $0.2665$. L'exécution peut être réalisé avec un algorithme simple de type-(1+1) utilisant une puissance de mutation fitness dépendant. Une fois traduite dans le cas du budget fixe, notre algorithme trouve des solutions plus proches de l'optimum de 13% que celles des meilleurs algorithmes connus.Basé sur la puissance de mutation optimale analysée pour OneMaX, nous montrons qu'un choix auto-ajusté du nombre de bits à retourner atteint le même temps d'exécution (excepté $o(n)$ termes inférieurs) et le même (asymptotique) 13% amélioration de la fitness-distance par rapport au RLS. Le mécanisme d'ajustement doit apprendre de manière adaptative la puissance de mutation actuellement optimale des itérations précédentes. Cela vise à la fois à exploiter le fait que des problèmes généralement différents peuvent nécessiter des puissances de mutation différentes et que, pour un problème fixe, différentes puissances peuvent devenir optimales à différentes étapes du processus d'optimisation.Nous étendons ensuite notre stratégie d'auto-ajustement aux algorithmes évolutifs basés sur la population dans des espaces discrets de recherche. Grosso modo, il consiste à créer la moitié de la descendance avec un taux de mutation qui est deux fois plus élevé que le taux de mutation actuel et l'autre moitié avec la moitié du taux actuel. Le taux de mutation est ensuite mis à jour au taux utilisé dans cette sous-population qui contient la meilleure descendance. Nous analysons comment l'algorithme d'évolution $(1+lambda)$ avec ce taux de mutation auto-ajustable optimise la fonction de test OneMax. Nous montrons que cette version dynamique de $(1+lambda)$~EA trouve l'optimum dans un temps d'optimisation attendu (nombre d'évaluations de la fitness) de $O(nlambda/loglambda+nlog n)$. Le temps est asymptotiquement plus petit que le temps d'optimisation de l'EA classique $(1+lambda)$. Des travaux antérieurs montrent que cette performance est la meilleure possible parmi tous les algorithmes de boîtes noires sans biais unaire basés sur des mutations $lambda$-parallèles.Nous proposons et analysons également une version auto-réglage de l'algorithme évolutionnaire $(1,lambda)$ dans lequel le taux de mutation actuel fait partie de l'individu et donc également sujet à mutation. Une analyse d'exécution rigoureuse sur la fonction de référence OneMax révèle qu'un simple schéma de mutation pour le taux conduit à un temps d'optimisation attendu du meilleur $O(nlambda/loglambda+nlog n)$. Notre résultat montre que l'auto-réglage dans le calcul évolutif peut trouver automatiquement des paramètres optimaux complexes. En même temps, cela prouve qu'un schéma d'auto-ajustement relativement compliqué pour le taux de mutation peut être remplacé par notre schéma endogène simple. / It has been observed that the runtime of randomized search heuristics depend on one or more parameters. A number of results show an advantage of dynamic parameter settings, that is, the parameters of the algorithm are changed during its execution. In this work, we prove that the unary unbiased black-box complexity of the OneMax benchmark function class is $n ln(n) - cn pm o(n)$ for a constant $c$ which is between $0.2539$ and $0.2665$. This runtime can be achieved with a simple (1+1)-type algorithm using a fitness-dependent mutation strength. When translated into the fixed-budget perspective, our algorithm finds solutions which are roughly 13% closer to the optimum than those of the best previously known algorithms.Based on the analyzed optimal mutation strength for OneMax, we show that a self-adjusting choice of the number of bits to be flipped attains the same runtime (apart from $o(n)$ lower-order terms) and the same (asymptotic) 13% fitness-distance improvement over RLS. The adjusting mechanism is to adaptively learn the currently optimal mutation strength from previous iterations. This aims both at exploiting that generally different problems may need different mutation strengths and that for a fixed problem different strengths may become optimal in different stages of the optimization process.We then extend our self-adjusting strategy to population-based evolutionary algorithms in discrete search spaces. Roughly speaking, it consists of creating half the offspring with a mutation rate that is twice the current mutation rate and the other half with half the current rate. The mutation rate is then updated to the rate used in that subpopulation which contains the best offspring. We analyze how the $(1+lambda)$ evolutionary algorithm with this self-adjusting mutation rate optimizes the OneMax test function. We prove that this dynamic version of the $(1+lambda)$~EA finds the optimum in an expected optimization time (number of fitness evaluations) of $O(nlambda/loglambda+nlog n)$. This time is asymptotically smaller than the optimization time of the classic $(1+lambda)$ EA. Previous work shows that this performance is best-possible among all $lambda$-parallel mutation-based unbiased black-box algorithms.We also propose and analyze a self-adaptive version of the $(1,lambda)$ evolutionary algorithm in which the current mutation rate is part of the individual and thus also subject to mutation. A rigorous runtime analysis on the OneMax benchmark function reveals that a simple local mutation scheme for the rate leads to an expected optimization time of the best possible $O(nlambda/loglambda+nlog n)$. Our result shows that self-adaptation in evolutionary computation can find complex optimal parameter settings on the fly. At the same time, it proves that a relatively complicated self-adjusting scheme for the mutation rate can be replaced by our simple endogenous scheme.

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