Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:35:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 3529.pdf: 3837278 bytes, checksum: 8bd2b3ca5bfe2c5d00ac6b2f4f473fd4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-12-06 / The work presented here analyses the impact that the process whereby the compulsory education period was extended from 8 to 9 years had on the state of Paraná, focusing on the political and educational conditions of the city of Ponta Grossa in the period between 2001 and 2008. The general purpose of this investigation was to point out the effects such change had on the lives of the citizens of Ponta Grossa, taking into account the government‟s commitment to allow every child the right to have access to education (nursery education for children below 6 years, and primary education for children above that age). The investigation sought to identify the link between the city education policy and broader social, political and historical influences and determinations, aiming to show that there is a dialectical movement between the particular and the universal. The research was developed through the observation and experience of the effects of the educational policy concerned in daily classroom practice and social life. In order to understand the effects produced in people‟s real lives, it was necessary: to carry out a historical and statistical survey based on the official documents and records available; to follow the discussions related to the extension of the compulsory education period at city, state and national levels, by carrying out a survey of norms and recommendations issued by normative and legislative bodies, according to records from the City Education Board of Ponta Grossa; to take part in public hearings held by the legislature of Paraná and follow the discussions and decisions of the state judiciary; to carry out a particular study on the historical formation of compulsory education as well as on the related political agenda at local, state, national and international levels; and finally to achieve a better knowledge on the guarantee of both the right to education and the respect to Brazilian citizens. The central point of the discussion is the importance of guaranteeing people the right to education, rather than it just being prescribed by law, because this initiative not only shows people being acknowledged by the government but is fundamental to allow them to have access to the means by which their citizenship is enhanced. The conclusion reached by the research is that the political actions analysed and their effects have been weak and incomplete; furthermore, the right to education for Brazilian citizens living in Ponta Grossa, Paraná, is in a contradictory situation in which social, economic and cultural interests are elements dialectically involved in the political and intellectual struggle occurring within the places where the procedural steps for public education policies are taken. The scientific merit of this research is to open the black box of the policy of the extension of the compulsory education period and allow its effects to be known and analysed. Particularly, the information presented here contributes to raising individual and collective awareness about how citizens‟ right can be violated by means of apparently correct and well-intentioned measures. / O trabalho aqui apresentado enfoca o processo de implementação da ampliação da escolaridade obrigatória Ensino Fundamental de 9 anos no contexto paranaense, evidenciando a realidade político-educacional do município de Ponta Grossa, no período compreendido entre 2001 a 2008. A investigação teve como objetivo geral evidenciar os efeitos da política de ampliação do Ensino Fundamental de 8 para 9 anos na vida dos cidadãos do município investigado, tendo como pressuposto de análise a garantia do direito à educação para crianças de 0 a 6 anos no contexto da educação infantil e, a partir dessa idade, no ensino fundamental. Procurou-se, ao longo da pesquisa, traçar a vinculação existente entre a política educacional municipal e as influências e determinações sociais, políticas e históricas mais amplas, visando demonstrar o movimento dialético existente entre o particular e o universal. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida a partir da observação e da vivência dos efeitos da política educacional investigada na prática cotidiana das escolas e da sociedade pontagrossense. Para entender os efeitos evidenciados na realidade concreta, foi necessário: realizar levantamento histórico e estatístico a partir dos documentos e registros oficiais disponíveis; acompanhar as discussões a respeito da ampliação da escolaridade obrigatória no contexto municipal, estadual e nacional, através do levantamento de normas e orientações expedidas pelos órgãos normativos e legislativos, registro em atas do Conselho Municipal de Educação de Ponta Grossa; participar de audiências públicas realizadas pelo poder legislativo paranaense e acompanhar as discussões e decisões do poder judiciário estadual; realizar estudo específico para aprofundamento teórico sobre a constituição histórica da escolaridade obrigatória e respectivos compromissos políticos existentes em âmbito local, estadual, nacional e internacional; além do aprofundamento teórico a respeito da garantia do direito à educação e respeito à cidadania dos brasileiros. O eixo central de discussão está na importância da garantia do direito à educação e não apenas de sua previsão legal, considerando que essa centralidade contribui para o acesso aos meios que fortalecem a cidadania do indivíduo e evidencia seu reconhecimento pelo poder público. Ao final da exposição da pesquisa conclui-se que as ações políticas analisadas e seus efeitos foram parciais e fragilizados e, ainda, que o direito à educação para o cidadão brasileiro, paranaense e pontagrossense está localizado em espaço contraditório onde os interesses sociais, econômicos e culturais são componentes dialeticamente envolvidos na luta intelectual e política que ocorre nos espaços onde tramitam as políticas públicas para o setor educacional. Abrir a caixa-preta da política de ampliação da escolaridade obrigatória, deixando que seus efeitos sejam conhecidos e analisados, é a contribuição científica da investigação apresentada, pois a exposição da pesquisa oferece subsídios que podem contribuir para a tomada de consciência, individual e coletiva, sobre como os direitos do cidadão podem ser violados e a violação pode ser considerada, ilusoriamente, como correta e verdadeira.

本文主旨在於討論政府的政策對於階級流通跟社會福利的影響。我們設計了一個簡單的階級流通的模型模型，在模型當中，我們想像社會上面的人都得要參加「職業考試」來決定個人的職業，如果通過考試，則可以得到比較高薪水的工作，反之，則只能得到薪資比較低的工作。在模型中，我們分析義務教育與所得重分配這兩種不同廣被使用的促進階級流通的政策下，分別對於社會福利所帶來的影響。 在模型當中，我們發現到的是，政策會產生兩種影響，第一種是縮短貧富差距的影響，第二種則是政策會讓家庭中小孩子受到的教育增加的影響，政策透過這兩種效果會影響社會上面的階級流通。而縮短貧富差距的效果要成立，有兩個條件：1. 這社會高資質的下一代，會是高資質的機率比其他低資質的小孩大；2. 這社會上面得要是有很多低資質的人處在比較高的社會階層。另外一部份，增加教育的效果要發生，也有兩個條件：1. 家長對於小孩教育的所得份額得要小於一；2. 高資質的能力得要夠高。唯有在上面的條件成立之下，政府政策所帶來的這些效果才會發生，並且也才有辦法影響社會階級流通跟社會福利。 而在不同政策下，所得重分配上，只會有縮短貧富差距的效果，在義務教育下，則是兩種效果都可能發生。也因此，本文認為，如義務教育或所得移轉之類的政府政策，並非一定有效，得要在如上述條件成立之下，才會發生階級流通的效果。 / The main purpose of this article is to find the relationship between social mobility and policies which government execute. In this article, I discuss two policies: income transfer and compulsory education. In article, I construct a model where people have to take a “occupation test” to decide what job they can obtain. If people’s scores are larger thanminimumscore, they will pass the test. If they pass the test, they will obtain a job with more earnings. If not, they will obtain a job with lower earnings. Scores of people is affected by their innate ability, family background, and levels of education. Furthermore, I set that if one’s parents are talented, then one is more likely to be a talented one than people with untalented parents and I call this advantage of people with talented parents“advantage of ability inheritance”. Moreover, levels of education is positive related to their parental income. I find that these policies raisemobility by two effects: one effect is reduction of income gap and another one is net increasing of children’s education. Moreover, I find that when the government executes income transfer, only effect fromreduction of income gapmay work. However, upon executing compulsory education, two effects may both work. In addition, I find the keys for reduction of income gap to work are (1) the advantage of ability inheritance and (2) the amounts of untalented people who pass the test before executing policy. Moreover, the keys for compulsory education are (1) income share of children’s utility and (2) ability of talented people.

TITLE Development potential of sub-functions in preschool and younger school age AUTHOR: Monika Pavelová DEPARTMENT: Special education SUPERVISOR: Mgr. Lenka Felcmanová ABSTRACT: Development of partial functions in preschool and early school age is an important part of school maturity and preparedness when entering the compulsory education. The goal of my dissertation was pointing out specific partial functions and their substance and importance. Pointing out the diagnostic methods which discover potential deficit of partial functions in preschool and early school age. Introducing the stimulus programmes on individual deficits in weakened partial functions. As a method of the research was used quantitative and qualitative research. Analysis and interpretation of the research results were implemented as well. The research was implemeted in Preparatory class of Elementary school in Prague 10. Children from the preparatory class were divided in two groups. One group was consisted of children using the stimulus programme for development of partial functions and the other group was without using the stimulus programme. The goal of my research part was to determine the development level of specific partial functions in case of children with the postponement of compulsory education in preparatory class at...

A bolsa de estudo para o ensino fundamental privado, financiada com recursos da educação pública, está prevista na CF/88 e na LDB/96 em caráter excepcional para atender ao direito público subjetivo de acesso ao ensino fundamental. Trata-se de uma excepcionalidade, pois a Lei permite o uso deste instituto sob três condições: quando não houver vaga na escola pública próxima à residência da criança, quando a criança não possuir recursos para financiar o próprio estudo em escola privada, e como conseqüência, o poder público obrigado a investir prioritariamente na solução da falta de vagas na local de moradia do aluno bolsista. Em resumo a bolsa deve ser transitória. A pesquisa tomou o caso de Nova Iguaçu/RJ, centrandose nos anos de 1997 a 2008, no entanto, mostrou que esse Município tem concedido bolsas de estudo de forma recorrente desde, no mínimo 1990, e no mesmo lugar e a crianças não necessariamente carentes, pois a maior parte delas já estava na escola quando receberam bolsa. O que caracteriza a sua ilegalidade, a sua inconstitucionalidade. A pesquisa objetivou entender a natureza da política de concessão de bolsas no âmbito deste Município. A hipótese de que a concessão de bolsas, mais do que uma resposta ao direito público subjetivo, seria uma forma de desviar recursos públicos à escola privada, pautada pelo clientelismo e pela troca de favores foi corroborada pela pesquisa. Para tanto, recorreu-se a uma combinação de métodos de pesquisa, ao paradigma indiciário e ao materialismo histórico. Procedeu-se a consultas a documentos do Município e a entrevistas com gestores da educação pública, da escola privada, políticos, lideranças sindicato dos trabalhadores da educação do Município, conselheiros na área da educação e aos próprios bolsistas. Constatou-se, sobretudo até o final de 2004, devido à forma sub-reptícia e à falta de transparência pública na sua concessão, que, até a sua extinção em 2008 pelo Governo Municipal, a sociedade civil enfrentou imensas dificuldades para exercer o papel de cidadão no controle social sobre esta política pública. / State-funded grants for private schools operating in the compulsory education sector (comprising 8 years) are provided for in the Federal Constitution of 1988 and the General Law of Education of 1996 as an exception to fulfill the public subjective right of access to the 8 years of compulsory education. This is an exception, for the law allows said grants under three conditions: when there is no place available in the State school near the child home, when the child has not funds to pay his own fees in a private school and, as a result, the State should prioritarily invest to solve the lack of places in the place of residence of the pupil with a grant. In short, the grant should be provisional. This research examined the case of the municipality of Nova Iguaçu, in the State of Rio de Janeiro, between 1997 and 2008. It found that the local government has consistently given grants since at least 1990, always in the same place and with the same schools for children not necessarily deprived, for most of them were already at school when they were given a grant, which indicates the illegal and nonconstitutional nature of the grants. The research sought to understand the nature of the grant awarding policy in this local government and confirmed the hypothesis that, the awarding of grants, far from being an answer to the subjective public right of access to education, would be a way of channelling public funds to private schools, based on clientelism and exchange of favours. To do this, the research employed a combination of research methods, the criticalhistorical approach and the index paradigm. Local government documents were examined and interviews were carried out with State education and private school administrators, politicians, leaders of the local government education workers\' union, education councillors and those legally responsible for the children who were given the grants. It was found, up to its extinction, in 2008, particularly until the end of 2004, owing to the subreptitious form and the lack of public transparency in the grant awarding, that civil society faced immense difficulties to perform the citizen role of social control over this public policy.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a o direito à educação no Brasil, focalizando o Período Imperial (1822 a 1889). A reflexão incorpora uma análise históricocomparativa acerca do sentido do direito à educação, sua interpretação nos documentos legais e o correspondente debate legislativo. O mapeamento realizado observou a inserção da gratuidade e da obrigatoriedade na legislação. Vale ressaltar que a gratuidade foi explicitada na Constituição Política do Império do Brasil, de 1824. Com o Ato Adicional, em 1834, descentralizou-se a administração pública, ficando a educação primária a cargo das províncias. Assim, a gratuidade não se efetivou em algumas delas no período estudado. Já a obrigatoriedade enfrentou resistências e permeou inúmeros debates parlamentares, de modo que sua implantação aconteceu pontualmente apenas em algumas legislações provinciais. Apesar da explicitação do direito à educação, enquanto dever do Estado, só ter sido realizada no nível federal com a Constituição de 1969, o presente trabalho indica que, em nível provincial, houve inserções já no Período Imperial. / The purpose of this study is to analyze the idea of the right to education during the Imperial Period (1822 to 1889). The reflection incorporates comparative historical analyzes about the right to education, its interpretation on the legal documents and corresponded debates. The right to education mapping began with the observation of the concept of free tuition and compulsory education by the law. In 1824, the Imperial Constitution (Constituição Política do Brasil Imperial) established the principle of free tuition to elementary schools. With the Amendment Constitutional (Ato Adicional) of 1834 the public administration was decentralized and the provinces were made responsible for primary education. But it was not applied at some provinces at that time according this research. On the contrary, the compulsory concept was discussed by the parliament, so it was implemented in a punctual way, just established as a law in some provinces. Although the right to education as a state duty was officially declared only in 1969, this study shows that there were previous statements, in some provinces, during the Imperial Period.

The thesis deals with the choice of basic school. Its aim is to find which factors affect school choice when entering first class and which factors are most important for the parents. It also focuses on parents' views, ideas and demands and on the information parents have about this issue. To fulfil these objectives the thesis uses the method of a semi-structured interviews and questionnaires. The survey was conducted in five phases which were mapping the process of school choice from different perspectives.

<p>Detta arbete har två olika delar som behandlats på olika sätt. Inledningsvis har dagssituationen för teknikämnet i grundskolan kartlagts. Bland resultaten återfinns ett samband mellan behöriga tekniklärare samt de lärare som själva valt att undervisa i teknik, och intresset för ämnet teknik. De behöriga tekniklärarna återfinner vi framförallt i de större städerna. I den största gruppen lärare som undervisar i teknik, No lärarna, har endast tio procent valt att undervisa i ämnet själv. I övriga ämnen finns det någon slags agenda, men teknikundervisningen bedrivs utan ordentliga riktlinjer och utan garanterad undervisningstid.</p><p>Andra delen av arbetet har undersökt en tänkbar framtid för teknikämnet i grundskolan. Samtalsintervjuer med fyra personer som fått ge sin personliga syn på vad man borde ha i tankarna när man planerar framtidens teknikundervisning. Några gemensamma ståndpunkter är att teknikämnet är viktigt för att förstå vår samtid och vår framtid. Teknik handlar om att lösa problem och skall hjälpa till att föda ett intresse för teknik och naturvetenskap. Sist men inte minst tycker man att ämnet är för lågt prioriterat.</p> / <p>This work has two different parts that has been treated in different ways. Initially, the present situation for the subject Technology in primary and lower secondary school has been monitored in a survey. Among the results, a correlation between authorized Technology teachers and the teachers that chose to teach Technology and the interest for Technology was found. The authorized Technology teachers are primarily found in the major cities. Among the majority of teachers that teach Technology, the Natural Science teachers, only ten percents choose to teach Technology them self. In other subjects, there is a curriculum, but the Technology education is carried out without proper guidelines or guarantees for a minimum time of education.</p><p>The second part of this work is looking into a possible future for the subject Technology in primary and lower secondary school. Four persons gave their personal views on what one should have in mind when planning the Technology education of the future. Some common positions are that Technology is important in order to understand our present and our future. Technology is about solving problems and should help to create an interest in technology and natural science. Last but not least the subject Technology is not prioritized.</p>

Detta arbete har två olika delar som behandlats på olika sätt. Inledningsvis har dagssituationen för teknikämnet i grundskolan kartlagts. Bland resultaten återfinns ett samband mellan behöriga tekniklärare samt de lärare som själva valt att undervisa i teknik, och intresset för ämnet teknik. De behöriga tekniklärarna återfinner vi framförallt i de större städerna. I den största gruppen lärare som undervisar i teknik, No lärarna, har endast tio procent valt att undervisa i ämnet själv. I övriga ämnen finns det någon slags agenda, men teknikundervisningen bedrivs utan ordentliga riktlinjer och utan garanterad undervisningstid. Andra delen av arbetet har undersökt en tänkbar framtid för teknikämnet i grundskolan. Samtalsintervjuer med fyra personer som fått ge sin personliga syn på vad man borde ha i tankarna när man planerar framtidens teknikundervisning. Några gemensamma ståndpunkter är att teknikämnet är viktigt för att förstå vår samtid och vår framtid. Teknik handlar om att lösa problem och skall hjälpa till att föda ett intresse för teknik och naturvetenskap. Sist men inte minst tycker man att ämnet är för lågt prioriterat. / This work has two different parts that has been treated in different ways. Initially, the present situation for the subject Technology in primary and lower secondary school has been monitored in a survey. Among the results, a correlation between authorized Technology teachers and the teachers that chose to teach Technology and the interest for Technology was found. The authorized Technology teachers are primarily found in the major cities. Among the majority of teachers that teach Technology, the Natural Science teachers, only ten percents choose to teach Technology them self. In other subjects, there is a curriculum, but the Technology education is carried out without proper guidelines or guarantees for a minimum time of education. The second part of this work is looking into a possible future for the subject Technology in primary and lower secondary school. Four persons gave their personal views on what one should have in mind when planning the Technology education of the future. Some common positions are that Technology is important in order to understand our present and our future. Technology is about solving problems and should help to create an interest in technology and natural science. Last but not least the subject Technology is not prioritized.

Since the Grade 1-9 Curriculum Reform took place in 2001, performing arts curriculum at compulsory education schools of Kaohsiung had faced several difficulties in practice. At the same time, marketing of the performing arts organizations also dropped down due to economic recession. In order to solve the dilemmas of both sides, the researcher thought that a partnership between compulsory schools and performing arts groups is a worthy strategy to try. Two concepts, art education partnership and co-teaching, were used to build up a theoretical framework. It is shown that a successful partnership between a school and a performing arts organization is influenced by many factors. These factors were taken to analyze the cooperative condition happened between the compulsory education schools and the arts organizations at Kaohsiung. Meanwhile, two schools, Kaohsiung Municipal Jiachang Primary School and Kaohsiung Municipal Youchang Junior High School, were chosen as the target cases of this study after a consulting conversation with the Compulsory Education Advisory Group of the Kaohsiung Municipal Department of Education(CEAGK). Members including the school administrative personnel, school teachers, parents and students of both schools were interviewed by selective ways. Taiwan Bangzi Company and the Bean Theatre also contribute their experiences to this study. In addition, observation and document analysis were also used as methods to collect data. Major conclusions are as the following: 1. Full time teachers and appropriate teaching materials are desperately demanded for compulsory education schools at Kaohsiung , unfortunately, even hired teachers has faced job crises at this time. 2. Performing arts groups are aware of the importance to cooperate with schools. 3. Knowing the difficult condition of the performing arts curriculum at school education, the CEAGK adapted strategies to assist teachers improve their skills and employ resources outside schools. 4. ¡§Personal contact¡¨ is a common way to find a partner. No contract was made, but agendas were the only documents for the cooperation. The interview results also reveal that schools need to improve their ways in deliberating the information upon performing arts education partnership. Although to work with schools in educational project is usually the goal for arts organizations, most activities were designed under the ideology of audience development or marketing the coming performance. 5. Both the schools and the performing arts groups respond that ¡§funding¡¨ and ¡§human resource¡¨ are key issues to conquer in dealing with ¡§performing arts education partnership (PAEP).¡¨ 6. PAEP at Kaohsiung is still on the ¡§Exposure Stage¡¨, co-teaching model by an artist and a teacher is still rarely seen. No one has ever attended workshops for the PAEP. 7. Evaluation on the effectiveness of PAEP is still lacked. 8. The PAEP at Kaohsiung was influenced by many factors including policy, funding, key persons, time and the project quality. PAEP should be followed by certain ¡§educational goal.¡¨ At the time of this study, the CEAGK and the performing arts organizations have asynchronous opinions towards the PAEP.

本研究旨在探討少子化趨勢對我國國民教育師資供需之影響與相關對策。首先係從我國學齡人口結構現況及趨勢作切入，進而探究少子化趨勢對師資培育政策之影響，並分析國民教育師資供需之現況與趨勢，最後本研究藉以百分比統計、集群分析、時間序列分析、灰色預測及模糊德菲法等統計方法，分析國民教育階段師資供需之現況、預測及策略方案之評估，進而提出相關因應對策，提供政策設計者之決策參考，以期透過適當的調節與管控機制，俾利國民教育師資市場的供需均衡。 本研究依研究目的所獲得之主要研究結論有以下幾點： 一、國民教育學齡學生數之發展趨勢，已顯見受到少子化趨勢之衝擊。惟各縣市所反映之衝擊情形不同，其中以高雄市、臺北縣、基隆市、臺中市、嘉義市及臺南市等六縣市之衝擊情形最大。 二、各縣市國民小學師資人力現況受少子化趨勢之影響不一，尤其臺北市、高雄市、臺北縣、苗栗縣、臺中縣、彰化縣、南投縣、嘉義縣、 臺南縣、高雄縣、屏東縣、花蓮縣、基隆市與臺南市等縣市已呈現師資人力過剩飽和之現況。 三、各縣市國民中學師資人力現況，尚未因學齡人口數減少受明顯之衝擊，各縣市師資人力的波動情形仍屬混沌，惟其中以臺北市、彰化縣、南投縣、雲林縣、嘉義縣、屏東縣與臺南縣等屬師資人力遞減之地區。 四、以時間序列分析單變量ARIMA模式與灰色預測GM（1,1）模式進行國民教育教師人數預測之效果良好，尤其灰色預測方法平均準確率多達99％以上。 五、各縣市95-100學年度國民小學教師人數預估約減少5,703人，減少百分比為5.47％。除桃園縣、臺東縣及新竹市教師人數略有成長外，其餘各縣市教師人數皆明顯遞減，尤其南投縣、基隆市、臺北縣及屏東縣教師人數減少比率皆超過10％。 六、各縣市95-100學年度國民中學教師人數預估約增加118人，增加百分比為0.247％。其中，以臺東縣、新竹縣、嘉義市、桃園縣及澎湖縣教師人數屬穩定成長之縣市，惟雲林縣、嘉義縣、臺北市及屏東縣則屬教師人數大幅減少之縣市，其減少比率皆超過10％。 七、為期有效解決國民教育師資供需失衡之問題，於政策方案上，首要之務應先從「教師離退制度」及「教師員額編制」之體制面改革著手。 根據以上之研究結果，本研究提出以下建議，供教育行政機估決策與未來研究時之參考： 一、對教育行政機關的建議 （一）各縣市政府教育局應確實掌握未來各學年度學齡學生數之變化，並正視超額留用教師人數將逐年增加之趨勢，妥適研擬與修訂相關人事法規與制度。 （二）加強不適任教師之督導淘汰機制，推動教師專業發展評鑑，符應「專業本位、保優汰劣」之要求。 （三）健全師資培育機構組織，持續評估調節師資供需數量，落實「適量優質儲備」之措施。 （四）適當調整國民中小學教師員額編制，達成「小班小校」之理念。 （五）師資估需預測宜進行縱貫性長期研究，並委由專責單位進行全國各級學校師資推估工作。 二、對後續研究的建議 （一）在研究主題方面，可探討少子化趨勢所造成學校整併、閒置教室空間規劃、學生單位成本改變及學校行銷因應策略等議題。 （二）在研究範圍方面，可採單一縣市為研究範圍，且持續在不同的時間進行預測與評估，在研究結果之推論上將更符合現況之需求。 （三）在研究對象方面，未來之研究可針對高中職與大專校院之相對衝擊與因應策略進行研究，將使研究結果更為廣泛推論。 （四）在研究方法方面，在專家意見整合方面可改用焦點團體法或腦力激盪法；在意見調查方面可兼採質化方法。 （五）在統計方法方面，在師資供需預測方面可採以時間數列分析、模糊時間數列分析、類神經網路、多變量模糊時間數列等統計方法，藉以比較預測結果之統計差異。 / The low birth rate--the influence and strategy of the supply and demand of teacher in compulsory education Abstract The purpose of this study was to analyze the policy of teacher education by the point view of population composition and probe into the state of teacher supply and demand, with its trend of development. The article analyze by percentage, cluster analysis, time series analysis, grey forecasting, and fuzzy Delphi method to realize the current situation, forecast and solving strategies of teacher supply and demand bring related solving strategies. Marjor findings include the following: 1.The trend of students in compulsory education was to affect by the low birth rate. Every county in the low birth rate was different, especially the most influence were Kaohsiung city, Taipei county, Keelung city, Taichung city, Chiayi city, and Tainan city. 2.The teacher supply and demand of different counties in elementary education were not the same, especially the most saturated membership of teachers were Taipei city, Kaohsiung city, Taipei county, Miaoli county, Taichung county, Changhua county, Nantou county, Chiayi county, Tainan county, Kaohsiung county, Pingtung county, Hualien county, Keelung city, and Tainan city. 3. The teacher supply and demand of different counties in middle education were disorderly by the low birth rate influence, but these counties’ teachers development trend were cut down, including Taipei city, Chiayi county, Nantou county, Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Pingtung county, and Tainan county. 4.The ARIMA model and grey forecasting GM(1,1) model to forecasting the supply and demand of teacher were good methods, especially the grey forecasting GM(1,1) model to forecasting degree of accuracy exceeds 99 percent. 5.Elementary education is forecasted reducing rough 5,703 teachers in 95-100 session. Besides Taoyuan county, Taitung county, and Hsinchu city have growth of teachers, the others’ teachers have obvious reducing, especially Nantou county, Keelung city, Taipei county, and Penghu county reduce teachers exceeding 10 percent. 6.The earlier stage of Middle education is forecasted increase rough 118 teachers in 95-100 session. Among countries belong to the growth of teachers are Taitung county, Hsinchu county, Chiayi city, Taoyuan county, and Penghu county. However, Among countries belong to the reducing of teachers are Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Taipei city, and Pingtung county, which reducing percentage over 10 percent. 7. To solving the imbalance of teacher supply and demand must be started in teachers’ retirement and evaluation reform, and teacher membership of organization reform. Based on the finding, several recommendations were made for the superior authorities, for the governments of education administration as well as for further research.