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Die Glücksgöttin Fortuna in Rom ist wohl eine der bekanntesten Gottheiten, die menschliche Geschicke leiten sollen. Andere Schlagwörter in diesem Zusammenhang sind Zufall, Pech, Schicksal, Glückssträhne etc. Geht man davon aus, dass Menschen zu diesen Konstrukten greifen, weil sie die Geschehnisse in der Welt und die ihnen zugrunde liegenden Ursache-Wirkung-Beziehungen nicht verstehen, so ist eine Klärung des Kausalitätsprinzips nötig. Bisher ist es nicht gelungen, Kausalgesetze in der Geschichte zu ermitteln. Nichtsdestotrotz existiert eine Vielzahl von Ansätzen zur Untersuchung ursächlicher Beziehungen. Einige ausgewählte Konzepte werden in dieser Arbeit anhand von Fallbeispielen vorgestellt.

Previous research, which addresses the view of the revocation of citizenship for terrorist-related persons, is seemingly critical. It illustrates a lot of problems that an initiation of this action can cause, but despite this, a social debate is underway in Sweden about introducing this particular opportunity. What is really advocated in the Swedish social debate regarding this? The purpose of the study is, by using an argumentative analysis, to see which recurring themes and arguments are expressed in the Swedish social debate. These are then linked to socialistic, liberalistic and conservative views of citizenship in terms of a discussion. The results of the study shows that a number of themes and arguments are visible in the social debate, where it is argued about everything from IS-supporters being citizens regardless of action, to not having the right to take part in the society at all. The majority of the debaters are in favor of some types of action. The conclusion points to the fact that a conservative approach in the examined social debate is dominant, based on that the arguments mostly advocates some kind of action and responsibility. Given that radicalization is a result of exclusion, the conclusion also sheds lights on that lowering the evidence requirements would probably be the most optimal solution for Sweden when it comes to dealing with returning IS-supporters. / Tidigare forskning, som behandlar synen på återkallande av medborgarskap för personer med anknytning till terrorism, är till synes kritiskt inställd. Forskningen visar en hel del problematik ett införande av detta kan medföra, trots det pågår en samhällsdebatt i Sverige om att möjliggöra det. Syftet med studien är att med hjälp av en argumentationsanalys se vilka återkommande teman och argument som uttrycks i den svenska samhällsdebatten om återvändande IS-anhängare och ett återkallande av deras svenska medborgarskap. Detta återknyts sedan till socialistisk-, liberalistisk- och konservativ medborgarskapssyn i form av diskussion. Resultatet av studien visar att ett antal teman och argument synliggörs i samhällsdebatten, där det argumenteras om allt från att IS-anhängare är medborgare oavsett handling, till att de inte har rätt att ta del av det svenska samhället alls på grund av IS handlingar. Den övervägande delen debattörer är förnågon typ av åtgärd. Slutsatsen pekar mot att ett konservativt synsätt i den undersökta samhällsdebatten är dominerande, baserat på att de argument som framförs mestadels argumenterar för någon form av agerande och ansvarsutkrävande. Utifrån att radikalisering är ett resultat av exkludering är slutsatsen att en sänkning av beviskraven förmodligen skulle vara den mest optimala lösningen för Sverige när det gäller hanteringen av återvändande IS-anhängare istället för att återkalla deras svenska medborgarskap.

The purpose of the study at hand is to convey a conservative theoretical perspective on the contemporary issues of segregation in Sweden. The aim has been to forth bring answers from a presented definition of conservatism through an idea analysis, which contains the main points of the conservative formation of ideas. The execution of the study is made through the method of Badersten’s “given-that analysis”. The aforementioned ideas are based on the works of mostly prominent conservative thinkers; Edmund Burke, Michael Oakeshott, Russell Kirk, John Kekes and, last but not least, Sir Roger Scruton. These are furthermore applied to three aspects of the concept of segregation, namely ethnic, socioeconomic, and city-and-landsegregation.  In conclusion, the result contains a variety of possible solutions that are contextually bound to the situation in Sweden. These solutions, or answers, are based on typical conservative beliefsand perceptions of concepts concerning rationalism, the little platoons, historical experience, freedom, class and justice, and nationalism. The solutions that are drawn from these concepts consists of answers such as the need to increase the level of individual responsibility both in terms of the individual herself as well as in relation to the state. Another point made is that regarding the importance of a common culture with a set of norms that firmly stands as the reference point throughout society. Also, a reactive response to increase the respect and authority of the law enforcement is determined.

Bakgrund: Kreditgivare är en av företagets viktigaste intressenter och de använder redovisning som informationskälla. Vilken information de grundar sitt beslut i och hur de använder redovisning har dock ändrats de senaste decennierna. Likaså har redovisningen i sig utvecklats då den för större företag blivit mindre konservativ. Konservatism i redovisning är ett sätt att hantera osäkerhet på vilket studier visar att kreditgivare föredrar. För att redovisningen ska vara användbar krävs att det finns förtroende för den. Förtroende har visat sig vara viktigt i affärsrelationer men är tämligen outforskat både i relation till kreditgivning och till redovisning. Detta förenas och studien ser närmare på dels redovisningens roll vid kreditgivning till större företag och hur kreditgivare påverkas av mindre konservativ redovisning, dels förtroendets roll vid kreditgivning. Syfte: Syftet är att öka förståelsen för vilka faktorer som påverkar ett kreditbeslut. Detta uppnås genom att undersöka både vilken betydelse hårda faktorer såsom redovisningsinformation har vid kreditgivning och mjuka faktorer såsom förtroende.  Metod: Studien har utgått från en kvalitativ ansats då tidigare forskning efterfrågar det. Sex intervjuer har genomförts med sju respondenter som vardera arbetat mellan 15-35 år med kreditgivning till företag. Detaljerade beskrivningar har återgetts från intervjuerna som sedan analyserats utifrån studiens analysmodell och huvudbegrepp. Slutsats: Studien visar att redovisningen har en central roll vid kreditgivning till större företag då deras årsredovisningar är så pass transparenta och informationsrika idag. Kassaflödesanalysen är det mest relevanta då företagets återbetalningsförmåga är det primära. Studien visar att kreditgivare främst baserar beslutet på bokslutsutlåning vilket visar vilken central roll redovisningen har. Kreditgivarna påverkas inte i märkbar utsträckning av att redovisningen för större företag blivit mindre konservativ då de alltid gör egna justeringar, bedömningar och analyser. De anpassar sig utefter vad de får och tillämpar alltid egna försiktighetsåtgärder vilket innebär att huruvida företaget redovisat konservativt eller ej inte är det avgörande. Vidare visar studien att förtroendet för företagetoch dess ledning samt redovisningen spelar en avgörande roll och är fundamentalt vid kreditgivning. Ärlighet och kompetens värderas högre än företagets välvilja. / Background: Creditors are one of a firm’s most important stakeholder and accounting is one of their source to information. The information on which they base their credit decision and how they use accounting has changed during the past decades. Likewise, the report itself has developed as it for larger firms become less conservative. Conservatism in accounting is a way of dealing with uncertainty, which studies show that creditors prefer. In order for accounting to be useful, trust must exist. Trust has proven to be important in business relationships but is rather unexplored both in relation to credit granting and to accounting. This is combined and the study examines partly the role of accounting in credit granting to large firms and how less conservative accounting affects creditors, partly the role of trust in credit granting. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to increase understanding of the factors that influence a credit decision. This is achieved by examining both the importance of hard factors such as accounting information in credit granting, as well as soft factors such as trust. Method: The study has been based on a qualitative approach as previous research demands it. Six interviews were conducted with seven respondents who each have worked between 15-35 years with credit granting to companies. Detailed descriptions have been reproduced from the interviews, which has been analysed based on the study’s analysis model and main concepts. Conclusion: The study shows that accounting has a central role in credit granting to large firms as their annual reports are so transparent and rich in information today. The cash flow analysis is the most relevant as the firm’s repayment capacity is primary. The study shows that creditors mainly base their decision on financial statement lending, which shows the central role of accounting. Creditors are not significantly affected by the fact that accounting for large firms has become less conservative as they always make their own adjustments and always apply their own precautionary principle, which means that whetherthe firm has reported conservatively or not is not decisive. Furthermore, the study shows that trust in the firm and its management as well as the accounting plays a crucial role and is fundamental in credit granting. Honesty and competence are valued higher than the firm’s benevolence.

Aim of the thesis is to describe and analyse the role of nationalism in contemporary Czech extreme right movements. Its author has two fundamental objectives. The first is to evaluate strength and relevance of contemporary Czech nationalism within extreme right movements. The second objective consists in the analysis of nationalism itself, which should reveal the true nature of these organizations and their ideological platform. This thesis presents an overview of Czech extreme right spectrum. It was essential to select movements that mutually differ and therefore represent various manifestations of Czech right extremism. All three platforms can be classified as extreme right movements strongly resonating with Czech nationalism. They see themselves as patriots who defend conservative values and national traditions. Revue of The National Idea represents an attempt to create a sophisticated, intellectual forum providing conditions for ultra-right views and ideas. D.O.S.T. movement acts as a conservative "people's initiative", standing against multiculturalism and the European Union. The National Party is then an example of extreme political grouping with traces of populism, xenophobia and pure racism. Content analysis of these three movements is the main topic of the thesis. Examining their goals,...

This dissertation consists of three essays. Each one seeks to add in the understanding, in a small way, of the factors that contribute to the development of societies. The first chapter explores the decisive facts of technological advancements and the ability of trade to shape incentives to create new techniques destined for the open markets. The second chapter examines the electoral consequence of having a conservative biased source of information and its effects on the desired ideology of representatives. The third explores how using violence, illegal groups can reach their population control goals in their territories. These three chapters seek to answer history, and power relations between different groups determine societies' paths. In the first chapter, I study how access to international markets affects the direction of technical change. I use a historical trade shock that transformed the Spanish textile industry at the end of the 19th century. After Spain effectively forced its colonies to buy manufactured cotton goods in 1891, I document an increase in cotton textile innovation relative to other fabrics. After the colonies' independence in 1898, the difference in textile innovation between cotton and different fabric remained significant. This shows that innovation exhibits a path dependence even without the initial conditions that motivated the increase. I provide price evidence of the strength of the technical change indicating that the rise in relative prices of cotton fabrics boosted the rise in cotton innovation. Together, these results provide some of the first causal evidence on how international trade and foreign markets shape the direction of the technical change. Even more, I show that innovation is possible in peripherical countries. Conditions outside the technological leaders determined the incentives of local innovators to develop technologies needed for those local conditions. In chapter 2, written with Haaris Mateen, we study how the introduction of a biased local TV operator affects electoral results. We use Sinclair Broadcasting Group's (SBG) staggered expansion over 2012 and 2017. This is the largest TV operator in the United States and is known for its conservative slant. We find that in areas exposed to SBG biased news coverage in local TV stations the electoral results experienced changes compared to places where the company did not penetrate. First, we find that penetration of SBG decreased the likelihood of a third-party candidate in the House of Representatives elections yet increased the probability of having a republican candidate as the winner of the seat. On the other hand, in the presidential elections after SBG penetration, the republican party was harmed, and its candidate received fewer votes, thanks to an increase in the voting of third parties. Second, when analyzing the ideology of the winner of the local election, we document a movement to the right, partially motivated by an increase in the probability of electing a conservative republican as representative. Finally, when looking at the mechanism that explains these effects, we find no movements on the democrat candidates but changes towards the right on republican candidates. In those areas affected by SBG, the republican candidate had a more significant likelihood to be conservative and not moderate. Evermore, those republican candidates had an increase in the donations coming from PACs. Together, these results prove that media have differential impacts on the election. It can affect beyond the voters' preferences, and it also affects the decision of which type of candidates run on local electoral races. In chapter 3, together with Diego Martin, we study how non-state actors enforce stay-at-home orders to reduce COVID-19 cases. We argue that Colombian-illegal groups used massacres to enforce social distance rules. Massacres are attacks killing at least three defenseless civilians in one operation. We estimate the effect of those violent events using a synthetic control method. To rule out the channel of massacres for other reasons such as coca production, we compare sub-regions with low conflict before the pandemic and where coca is not suitable for growth. We find that places with massacres reduced the pandemic outbreak by 70 cases per 100.000 inhabitants per week after the second month. We show that the principal channel that explains our results is a reduction on mobility indexes. The first massacre decreased infection levels by reducing individuals' mobility at workplaces. Finally, we show that young population groups experienced the earliest reduction in infection rates, while the old group has the highest decline in infection rates after massacres.

Diese Arbeit untersucht, ob (i) das Ausmaß von conditional conservatism und (ii) die Prognosegenauigkeit sowie (iii) Persistenz der Erfolgsgrößen und Cash Flows durch unternehmensspezifische rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen wie die (i) Rechnungslegung, (ii) Kapitalmarktorientierung und (iii) Abschlussprüfung beeinflusst werden. Zum einen lässt sich im Rahmen der Analyse durch die Gegenüberstellung zweier Unternehmensgruppen die Implikationen der IFRS und des HGB und zum anderen aber auch die der Anreizsteuerung über die Agencybeziehungen des Unternehmens zu den Bilanzadressaten auf die Finanzberichterstattung der Unternehmen beschreiben. Es soll demnach explizit der Frage nachgegangen werden, ob diese Implikationen die Informationsfunktion der Finanzberichterstattung hinsichtlich einer Erhöhung der Earnings Quality unterstützen und somit eine weitere Regulierung dieser rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen sinnvoll erscheint. Es wird innerhalb dieser Arbeit zudem gezeigt, dass das Modell von Basu (1997) nicht für eine angemessene Persistenzmessung geeignet ist, sondern vielmehr die unit root-Spezifikationen von Dickey und Fuller (1979,1981) oder die Threshold-Modelle von Enders und Granger (1998) herangezogen werden sollten. Darüber hinaus wird eine Vielzahl von Spezifikationstests vorgestellt, die u.a. einen multivariaten Ansatz zur Outlierkorrektur und verschiedene Formen der Berücksichtigung von fixed effects in den Regressionen umfasst. Die Resultate der empirischen Untersuchung der deutschen Unternehmen sprechen für eine höhere Persistenz der Erfolgsgrößen der börsennotierten HGB-Bilanzierer sowohl im Vergleich mit den börsennotierten IFRS-Bilanzierern als auch mit den nicht börsennotierten Unternehmen. Conditional conservatism wird jeweils für jede Unternehmensgruppe, jedoch nicht im Verhältnis der Gruppen zueinander, nachgewiesen. Die Rechnungslegung, Kapitalmarktorientierung und Abschlussprüfung besitzen folglich keinen eindeutigen Einfluss auf das Ausmaß von conditional conservatism. Eine weitgehend fehlende Assoziation der drei getesteten rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen offenbart sich ebenfalls innerhalb der angewendeten Modelle zur Prognose des Cash Flows. Die die Zeitreiheneigenschaften der Erfolgsgrößen und Cash Flows determinierenden Faktoren sind dahingehend eher in der operativen Geschäftstätigkeit eines Unternehmens, bei anderen rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen oder makroökonomischen Effekten wie der konjunkturellen Entwicklung zu suchen. In der Gegenüberstellung der verschiedenen ökonometrischen Methoden zeigt sich, dass vor allem die Hadi (1994)-Outlierkorrektur das R² erhöht und den Prognosefehler im Verhältnis zur in der Accounting-Literatur vorherrschenden Standardoutlierkorrektur senkt. Die unit root-Spezifikationen nach Dickey und Fuller (1979,1981) bieten im Vergleich zur Spezifikation von Basu (1997) ebenfalls höhere R² und geringere Prognosefehler. Des Weiteren weisen ökonometrische Modelle, welche die Implikationen von conditional conservatism berücksichtigen, jeweils bessere Resultate als Modelle ohne eine Integration dieser Komponente auf. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Spezifikationstests und alternativen Modelle führen somit durchweg zu einer Verbesserung der betrachteten Gütekriterien und sollten bei einer empirischen Analyse, insbesondere von Paneldaten, zukünftig in der Accounting-Literatur ihre Berücksichtigung finden. Wesentliche Abschnitte dieser Dissertation basieren auf den beiden folgenden Aufsätzen: "A Note on the Time Series Measure of Conservatism", CESifo Working Paper No. 2968, zusammen mit Frank Westermann und "Does the Introduction of IFRS Change the Timeliness of Loss Recognition? Evidence from German Firms", Institute of Empirical Economic Research Working Paper No. 87, zusammen mit Frank Westermann und Carl-Friedrich Leuschner.

Resumo: O presente texto sintetiza uma série de trabalhos desenvolvidos após a conclusão do doutorado, mas baseia-se particularmente no relatório de Pós-Doutorado apresentado ao Instituto de Economia da Universidade Estadual de Campinas em 2012. Nesta síntese, estes trabalhos foram reformulados e expandidos. A questão central que norteou o texto foi: de que forma, a partir de condicionantes estruturais internos e da resultante dos conflitos de classe, os dois países responderam à crise estrutural do capitalismo aberta em 1929 e estabeleceram novas estratégias de desenvolvimento? O projeto nacional de Vargas e o projeto da coligação conservadora argentina não podem ser considerados acabados, constituem processos que sofreram inflexões a partir das conjunturas nacionais e internacionais e das mutantes correlações de força entre as classes. Em um contexto de relativa desarticulação da economia mundial, o projeto de desenvolvimento de Vargas, convergindo com a tendência de constituição de economias nacionais mais fechadas, definiu uma estratégia calcada no mercado interno e na industrialização, enquanto na Argentina, os setores conservadores, que voltaram ao poder com o golpe de setembro de 1930, apesar de readequarem seu projeto para a nova situação, buscaram reafirmar a estratégia de uma economia aberta em condições bastante adversas. Essas opções condicionaram os rumos de ambas as economias. / Abstract: This text summarizes a series of works developed after the completion of the doctorate, but is based in particular on the postdoctoral report presented to the Institute of Economics of the State University of Campinas in 2012. In this synthesis, these works were reformulated and expanded. The central question that guided the text was: how, from internal structural constraints and resulting from class conflicts, did the two countries respond to the structural crisis of open capitalism in 1929 and set up new development strategies? The Vargas National Project and the Argentine Conservative Coalition Project cannot be considered finished, they are processes that suffered inflections from national and international conjunctures and the changing correlations of force between the classes. In a context of relative disarticulation of the world economy, the Vargas development project, converging with the trend towards more closed national economies, defined a strategy based on the domestic market and industrialization, while in Argentina the conservative sectors, which returned to power with the coup of September 1930, although they adjusted their project to the new situation, they sought to reaffirm the strategy of an open economy under very adverse conditions. These options have conditioned the direction of both economies.

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