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Corporate Tax Inversions: An Event Study on the Impact of Treasury Regulations on Domestic and Foreign M&A Target FirmsSunga, Gabriel 01 January 2016 (has links)
This paper utilizes a short-term event study to analyze the stock price reaction of domestic and foreign M&A target firms to the 2014, 2015, and 2016 Treasury regulatory announcements aimed at restricting corporate tax inversions. The results suggest that domestic M&A target firms experience insignificant abnormal returns as a result of the Treasury overlooking tax-favored acquisitions by foreign acquirers of domestic target firms with significant locked out earnings. Meanwhile, foreign M&A target firms experience insignificant abnormal returns associated with the ineffective 2014 and 2015 Treasury regulations and experience significant abnormal returns associated with the highly effective 2016 Treasury regulations. This paper contributes to the existing debate on corporate inversions by highlighting the common techniques used to escape the United States’ tax jurisdiction, as well as shedding light on a hidden inversion alternative that has been largely overlooked by the Treasury’s regulatory actions.
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Destination Based Cash Flow Taxation: A Critical Look at Proposed Corporate Tax Reform and its Impact on the StatesLynds, Scott 01 January 2017 (has links)
The 2016 House Republican Blueprint proposes business tax reform that establishes a destination-based cash flow taxation system (DBCFT). Supporters of DBCFT believe a border adjustment tax appropriately addresses the common concern that modern globalization has outpaced U.S. tax legislation. Stated goals of the border adjustment tax (BAT) are to reduce compliance costs, remove special interest subsidies and crony capitalism, encourage domestic economic growth. This paper contains expositional analysis on the theoretical ramifications associated with a shift to a destination-based system. I evaluate the current and proposed corporate tax systems against four generally accepted standards for a good tax: sufficiency, convenience, efficiency, and fairness. My research suggests that a border adjustment tax offers improvement in sufficiency and convenience. However, the BAT does not pass the criteria for efficiency and fairness. Lastly, I add scenario driven research on how the border adjustment tax (BAT) will affect business taxation in California. I conclude that statewide universal adoption of the border adjustment tax produces the highest California state tax revenue under a federal system of DBCFT.
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Two Essays in Islamic Finance and InvestmentMerdad, Hesham J 18 May 2012 (has links)
The main purpose of this dissertation is to lessen the gap in the Islamic finance and investment literature by providing new answers to the most vital question raised in that literature: Is the adherence to the Shariah law associated with at any cost?
The first chapter provides a primer on Islamic finance. It discusses several restrictions and necessary adaptations that must be made to have a Shariah-compliant product. The takeaway is that Shariah law mandates is related to fundamentals and, thus has a direct effect on the risk-return profile of all sorts of different products. This is referred to as the “Islamic-effect.”
The second chapter investigates that Islamic-effect in a cross-sectional stock return context. This is done in two steps. First, looking at differences in stock returns between Islamic and conventional firms in Saudi Arabia during the period from January 2003 to April 2011. Results indicate that there is a negative relationship between Saudi Islamic firms and average returns. This is referred to as the “negative Islamic-effect.” Second, examine whether that negative Islamic-effect is considered a common, systematic, and undiversified risk factor that affects cross-sectional expected stock returns. Time-series regressions results indicate that the Islamic risk factor (CMI) does indeed capture strong common variation in Saudi stock returns regardless what is included in the model. Also, findings suggest that using a four-factor model that controls for the Islamic-effect is more appropriate than using a single- or a three-factor model in Islamic finance applications that require estimates of expected stock returns.
The third chapter investigates the Islamic-effect in a mutual fund context. A unique sample of 143 Saudi mutual funds (96-Islamic and 47-conventional) is used to assess the performance and riskiness of Saudi Islamic funds relative to Saudi conventional funds and relative to different Islamic and conventional indices for the period from July 2004 to January 2010. Findings suggest that there is a benefit (cost) from adhering to the Shariah law when locally-focused (internationally-focused) fund portfolios are investigated. When Arab-focused fund portfolios are investigated, findings suggest that there is neither a cost nor a benefit from adhering to the Shariah law.
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Impact of financial market development on holdings of US assets and Equity carve-outs and macroeconomic activityCompaore, Ravigsida Dorcas 06 August 2013 (has links)
The first part of this dissertation examines the impact of financial development on different countries holdings of U.S securities. The difference between the US weight in the global market capitalization and the US weight in developed and developing countries is tested through a panel data analysis. We find that most countries tend to overweight their US debt portfolio which is strongly related to their financial market development. When holdings of US debts and equity are low, financial market development is high; in developing countries, holding less US equity in their portfolio causes country to get better financial development. In developed countries there is no causation effect; a simple negative relation between financial development and countries holding of US securities is observed and countries tend to hold relatively less US securities through years.
The second part of this dissertation examines whether economic conditions, affect carve-outs frequency and returns. This paper investigates the effect of expansion and recession, and industry sectors on carve out issued in the US over 1982 to 2009. We find that the number of carve-outs is higher in expansion than recession. However, the cumulative abnormal returns are higher during recession which is explained by the higher adverse selection during this period. Further, we find that the difference of abnormal returns between expansion and recession is significant and we also observe that high-tech or non-high-tech industries that undertake carve-out have positive higher abnormal return during recession. Therefore, within a same industry sector, carve-out abnormal returns are impacted by the economy cycle. However difference of abnormal returns between industry sector, high-tech and non-high-tech industries, is not significant.
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Relative and Discounted Cash Flow Valuation on Swedish Listed Companies : How applicable are the methods to companies in different industries?Otterberg, Simon, Zetterberg, August January 2019 (has links)
The purpose of this thesis is to look at how the two widely used valuation approaches Free Cash Flow to Firm and Relative valuation can contribute to the explanation of market prices of shares. The study also aims to investigate if it is possible to find any significant differences between industries, while using the two valuation methods. There are a large number of models that are used to value assets and corporations, which have been used for a long time in the banking sector and similar contexts. It is widely known that a single valuation method or model which could predict a future stock price is hard to find or might even not exist. The study uses a quantitative method, in which we evaluated 36 Swedish companies, to be able to draw conclusions about the two valuation approaches. Our results suggest that the calculated prices obtained from the two methods correlate with the market price of the share, and that the result differ between different industries.
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Accounting earnings properties and determinants of earnings response coefficient in Brazil / Propriedades do lucro contábil e determinantes do coeficiente de resposta ao lucro no BrasilPimentel, Renê Coppe 17 December 2009 (has links)
A fundamental issue at the interface of economics, finance, and accounting involves the relation between a firm\'s reported earnings and its stock returns. The lack of research in this field using Brazilian data and the limitations of previous research in terms of time-series data (small length available) motivates the present research. In addition, the practical justification of this research is that time-series properties of accounting earnings and the determinants of Earnings Response Coefficient (ERC) have a direct application in earnings forecasting and the valuation process. Based on this, the general objectives of this dissertation are to analyse the earnings time-series properties and to find the economic determinants of ERC in Brazil. Consequently, this dissertation is divided into three main sections/studies: (1) An analysis of the time-series properties of accounting earnings and the long-term relationship among price, return and earnings; (2) An analysis of the relevance and significance of ERC for individual companies and pooled data; and, (3) Elucidation of the economic determinants of ERC in Brazil. In order to achieve these objectives, quarterly and annual data were gathered and analysed. The quarterly sample is composed by 71 firms with quarterly data from the first quarter of 1995 until first quarter of 2009 (57 time-observations), and the annual sample is composed by 61 firms and annual observations from 1995 to 2008 (14 time-observations). Two measures of accounting earnings (SEPS and UNEPS) and two measures of stock returns (RET and ARET) were used. Additionally, proxies of systematic risk (BETA), expected economic growth opportunity (GRO), leverage (LEV), risk-free interest rate (INTER) and size (SIZE) were used as measures of the economic determinant of ERC. In each study, the two different measures of earnings and returns resulted in a combination of four functional models (regressions), in an annual and a quarterly basis. These models were estimated into firm-specific level and pooled data by using different methods (OLS and GLS); these varieties of designs, periodicity and estimations provide a robust analysis. The results of the first study show that earnings present, for most firms, stationarity series and seasonal fluctuation. The evidence also suggests that the accounting earnings in Brazil follow an auto-regressive model AR(1). Test results indicate long-term relationships between earnings and prices/returns, although, it is not possible to robustly infer about the Granger causality direction since a general behaviour was not identified. The second study indicates that for annual and quarterly firm-specific regressions between earnings and stock returns, only a few companies presented a significant relationship. However, the annual pooled analysis presents positive and significant coefficients, and contemporaneous observations (at t level) seem to fit better in the models than the lagged variable of return. Cross-sectional weight in the panel aggregates some refinement to the models in terms of significance and explanatory power. In the quarterly pooled regressions, coefficients with statistical significances were found; nevertheless, these regressions report an extremely low or nonexistent explanatory power, suggesting a slight relationship between the variables. The results of the third study show that systematic risk, interest rates and size significantly explain cross-sections and intertemporal variations of ERC according to previous hypothesis. On the other hand, differently from what has been hypothesized, expected economic growth and leverage do not significant explain cross-section variations of ERC in Brazil. Since the interest rate level in Brazil is higher than those in developed countries and given that interest rate levels affect both earnings and discount rate, the regressions presented different signals according to the proxy for return used. Finally, it is possible to conclude that, by including the significant factors noted above, the empirical specification of the earnings-returns relation is significantly improved, however, given some contrasting results presented here, this dissertation advocates for further research in this field. / Um desafio fundamental que interliga economia, finanças e contabilidade envolve a relação entre lucros contábeis divulgados e o retorno das ações. A falta de pesquisa nesta área utilizando dados brasileiros e a limitação das pesquisas anteriores devido à falta de séries temporais adequadas (as séries disponíveis são curtas) motivam a presente pesquisa. Adicionado a isso, uma justificativa pragmática é que a propriedade temporal dos lucros contábeis e os determinantes do Coeficiente de Resposta ao Lucro (ERC) têm aplicação direta na previsão de lucros e em processos de valuation. Baseado nisso, o objetivo geral desta tese é analisar as propriedades estocásticas do lucro contábil e encontrar os determinantes econômicos do ERC no Brasil. Para isso, a tese está dividida em três seções/estudos: (1) Análise as propriedades dos lucros contábeis e a relação de longo prazo entre preço das ações, retorno e lucros; (2) Análise a relevância e significância do ERC por empresa e em dados agrupados (pooling); e, (3) Teste dos determinantes econômicos do ERC. Para atingir tais objetivos, dados trimestrais e anuais foram coletados e analisados. A amostra trimestral é composta por 71 empresas entre o 1º trimestre de 1995 e o 1º trimestre de 2009 (57 observações trimestrais) e a amostra anual é composta por 61 empresas com observações anuais entre 1995 a 2008 (14 observações anuais). Duas medidas para lucro contábil (SEPS e UNEPS) e duas medidas de retorno das ações (RET e ARET) foram utilizadas. Adicionalmente, proxies para risco sistemático (BETA), oportunidades de crescimento econômico esperado (GRO), alavancagem (LEV), taxa de juros livre de risco (INTER) e tamanho (SIZE) foram utilizadas como medidas de determinantes econômicos do ERC. Em cada estudo, as duas medidas de lucro e de retorno resultaram em uma combinação de quatro modelos funcionais (regressões), em uma base anual e uma trimestral. Tais modelos são estimados individualmente nas empresas e por agrupamento de dados (pooling) por meio de diferentes métodos (OLS e GLS); essa variedade de modelagem, periodicidade e estimação proporcionam uma análise mais robusta. Os resultados do primeiro estudo mostram que os lucros apresentam, para a maioria das empresas, séries estacionárias e com flutuações sazonais. As evidências também sugerem que os lucros no Brasil seguem um modelo autoregressivo de ordem um - AR(1). Os resultados dos testes indicam a existência de relacionamento de longo prazo entre lucro e retorno, no entanto, não é possível inferir de forma robusta sobre a direção da causalidade de Granger visto que não foi encontrada uma tendência geral para os dados. O segundo estudo indica que poucas empresas apresentaram regressões com coeficientes significantes. No entanto, a análise com dados agrupados apresenta coeficientes positivos e significantes, sendo que as observações em períodos similares (no nível t) aparentam melhor adequação do que variável de retorno defasada. Atribuição de peso em variação transversal (cross-sectional) no painel de dados agrega maior refinamento nos modelos em termos de significância e poder explicativo. Nas regressões trimestrais agrupadas, coeficientes com significância estatística foram encontrados; entretanto, essas regressões indicam um poder explicativo extremamente baixo ou inexistente, sugerindo um pequeno relacionamento entre as variáveis. Os resultados do terceiro estudo mostram que risco sistemático, taxa de juros e tamanho explicam com significância estatística as variações temporais e transversais do ERC de acordo com hipóteses prévias. Por outro lado, diferentemente do hipotetizado por estudos anteriores, oportunidades de crescimento econômico esperado e alavancagem não explicam com significância as variações transversais do ERC no Brasil. Visto que a taxa de juros no mercado brasileiro é significativamente maior do que em países desenvolvidos e que a taxa de juros afeta tanto a geração de lucros quanto a taxa de desconto, a regressões apresentaram sinais diferentes de acordo com a proxy de retorno utilizada (RET ou ARET). Finalmente é possível concluir que, ao incluir os fatores estatisticamente significantes, apresentados acima, a especificação empírica da relação lucro/retorno é significativamente melhorada, entretanto, considerando que alguns resultados contraditórios foram verificados, esta tese advoga por maiores pesquisas neste campo.
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Perda de valor das empresas listadas na Bovespa durante a crise financeira de 2008: uma análise sob a perspectiva da modelagem hierárquica linear / Decline in stock prices of firms listed in Bovespa during the 2008 financial crises: an analysis from the perspective of the Hierarchical Linear ModelingSerra, Ricardo Goulart 31 August 2011 (has links)
Raros autores estudam as características das empresas e dos seus setores de atuação na explicação dos retornos das ações em períodos exclusivamente de crise. A escassez de trabalhos em períodos de crise pode ser considerada uma importante lacuna na literatura acadêmica, tendo em vista que as perdas são substanciais nestes períodos. O objetivo do presente trabalho é identificar características das empresas e dos seus setores de atuação que expliquem a queda dos preços das ações das empresas listadas na Bovespa durante a crise financeira de 2008. O período de crise escolhido começa em 20 de maio de 2008 (pico do Ibovespa) e termina em 27 de outubro de 2008 (vale do Ibovespa), com queda de 60%. São estudadas 135 empresas não financeiras, com informações disponíveis e eliminados outliers. Utilizou-se neste trabalho uma técnica multinível, Modelos Hierárquicos Lineares, para endereçar claramente a interação entre os dois níveis envolvidos na análise: empresas (1º nível: objeto) e setores (2º nível: contexto). Dada a pouca utilização desta técnica em estudos em administração, sua aplicação também é um diferencial do trabalho. Os resultados indicam a pertinência da escolha por esta técnica, pois se identificou que a variabilidade total dos retornos tem origem (i) em características das empresas (1º nível), correspondendo a 76,9% da variabilidade total e (ii) em características dos setores (2º nível), correspondendo a 23,1% da variabilidade total. O modelo final explica 39,9% da variabilidade total. As características das empresas que têm influência significativa no retorno das ações são: livro / mercado (valor contábil do patrimônio líquido / valor de mercado do patrimônio líquido), tamanho e iliquidez. As características dos setores que têm influência significativa no retorno das ações das empresas são: beta desalavancado, crescimento histórico da receita e ter ou não a tarifa regulada. Por fim, identificou-se que a característica setorial beta desalavancado modera a influência da característica da empresa livro / mercado no retorno das ações das empresas. Em outras palavras, o coeficiente angular da variável livro / mercado é diferente para os diversos setores, sendo que o impacto da variável livro / mercado no retorno é menos acentuado para empresas de setores com alto beta desalavancado. / Few authors study the role of firms and industries\' characteristics in explaining stock\'s returns exclusively in periods of crisis. The scarcity of such studies can be considered an important gap in the academic literature, given the substantial losses that one can experience during such periods. The objective of this study is to identify firms and industries\' characteristics that explain the decline in prices of stocks of companies listed in Bovespa during the 2008 financial crisis. The crisis period chosen begins on May 20, 2008 (Ibovespa\'s peak) and ends on October 27, 2008 (Ibovespa\'s valley), representing a decline of 60%. 135 non-financial companies, with information available and after the exclusion of outliers were studied. A multilevel technique was adopted: Hierarchical Linear Models, to clearly address the interaction between the two levels involved in the analysis: firms (1st level: object) and industries (2nd level: context). Given the low utilization of this technique in studies in business administration, its adoption is also a differential of this study. The results indicate the relevance of the technique\'s choice. It was identified that (i) 76.9% of the total variability is due to firms\' characteristics and (ii) 23.1% of the total variability is due to industries\' characteristics. The final model explains 39.9% of the total variability. Firms\' characteristics that have significant influence on stock returns are: book / market (book value of equity / market value of equity), size and illiquidity. Industries\' characteristics that have significant influence on stock returns are: unlevered beta, historical sales growth and whether or not the industry has a regulated tariff. Finally, it was found that industries\' characteristic unlevered beta moderates the influence of the firms\' characteristic book / market in stock returns. In other words, slope coefficient for the firms\' characteristic book / market is different between industries, with the impact of the variable book / market on stock return being less pronounced for companies in sectors with high unlevered beta.
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O mercado de eurobonds e as captações brasileiras: uma abordagem empírico-descritiva / The Eurobond market and the Brazilian issues: an empirical and descriptive approachPimentel, Renê Coppe 24 November 2006 (has links)
O financiamento por meio de títulos negociáveis vem ganhando importância no cenário internacional e concorrendo com meios tradicionais de financiamento, como os empréstimos bancários. No entanto, existem poucos estudos científicos no Brasil que abordam o financiamento das empresas por meio da emissão de títulos de dívida, em especial, os títulos de dívida de médio e longo prazos emitidos no exterior, os eurobonds e euronotes. Dessa forma, este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar e descrever o mercado de eurobonds e euronotes, sua história, características, ferramentas e técnicas, com especial atenção aos títulos brasileiros. Este objetivo será atingido por meio de uma análise descritivo-exploratória e o estabelecimento de relações entre variáveis, revisão de literatura, apresentação e exposição de dados históricos de mercado, análise de volumes de emissões e desenvolvimento intertemporal. Também é objetivo deste trabalho analisar empiricamente, de forma descritiva e exploratória, o perfil das empresas brasileiras que captam no exterior e a utilização de bonds em sua estrutura de financiamento, com suporte das teorias de estrutura de capital do trade-off estático e de peking order. Para isso, foram feitas análises estatísticas de indicadores contábeis e financeiros organizados em forma de painel (painel data analysis). Os resultados empíricos demonstram que, em geral, as empresas que emitem bonds possuem maior alavancagem com capital de terceiros, perfil de dívida com prazo mais alongado, maiores índices de imobilização, maior taxa de rentabilidade derivada do elevado faturamento, o que demonstra também a diferença do tamanho médio das empresas com emissão de bonds com as demais, confirmando a afirmação de Valle (2001) de que apenas as grandes empresas brasileiras possuem atuação ativa na captação no mercado de eurobonds e bonds estrangeiros. Também foi verificado que o comportamento dos indicadores financeiros em relação ao endividamento por bonds está em acordo com as teorias da estrutura de capital, em especial com a teoria do trade-off estático que preconiza que quanto maior a alavancagem da empresa, maior a rentabilidade para os acionistas. O estudo não possui o objetivo de generalização dos resultados, ficando as conclusões restritas à amostra e ao período analisado. / The financing by negotiable securities has been gaining importance in the international scene and competing with traditional ways of financing such as the banking loans. However, there are not many scientific studies in Brazil that approach the financing of companies through debt securities, especially medium and long-run debts issued in international market, the eurobonds and euronotes. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze and describe the market of eurobonds and euronotes, its history, characteristics, tools and techniques, with special attention to the Brazilian securities. In order to do that, a descriptive-exploratory analysis and the establishment of relations between variables will be done through an ample revision of literature, presentation and exposition of historical market data, non-statistical analysis of emissions volumes and development. It is also the objective of this study to analyze empirically, through a descriptive and exploratory form, the profile of companies that issued bonds in the international market, and the utilization of bonds in the financing structure of Brazilian companies, supported by the theories of capital structure of the static trade-off and peking order. In order to do that, statistical analysis of panel data was used. Empirical results indicated that, in general, Brazilian companies that issue bonds in the international market show higher leverage, longer term, higher fixed assets / equity ratio, higher profitability derived from high level of sales, which also demonstrates the difference between the average size of companies with emission of bonds and others, confirming the verification of Valle (2001) that only large Brazilian companies issue in the eurobonds and foreign bonds markets. It was also verified that financial indicators and leverage level are related, in accordance with the theories of capital structure and especially with the theory of static trade-off which praises that the higher the company´s leverage, the higher the profitability for the shareholders. It is not an objective of the present study to generalize the results, being the conclusions restricted to the analyzed sample.
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[en] FOLLOWING-UP ON ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS / [pt] ACOMPANHAMENTO DA LUCRATIVIDADE ECONÔMICA DE PROJETOS DE INVESTIMENTOROBERTA AVILA DE ULHOA CASTELLO BRANCO 25 August 2004 (has links)
[pt] A fim de garantir a sobrevivência, as companhias
industriais constantemente geram novas idéias, que são
transformadas em projetos de investimento voltados a
ampliações ou instalações de novos equipamentos ou
unidades. Cada decisão de investimento tem sua
lucratividade econômica averiguada através de indicadores
calculados com base nas estimativas e projeções
realizadas,
que sempre apresentam desvios com relação ao observado
durante a implantação ou operação do projeto. A vida
futura
do projeto também apresentará novas expectativas, pois
a empresa vai atualizando seus cenários à medida que o
tempo passa. Este trabalho mostra que é possível
acompanhar
a lucratividade econômica de um projeto desde o momento
da
sua aprovação e que é viável verificar a influências
de diversos fatores na variação verificada de
lucratividade
econômica. Este acompanhamento contribui fundamentalmente
para o aprendizado organizacional. / [en] In order to guarantee survival, industrial companies are
always generating new ideas that are transformed into
investment projects aiming at upgrading or installing new
equipment or units. The profitability of each investment is
assessed using indicators calculated based on previous
estimates and forecasts that always present biases in
relation to the observed during project implementation or
operation. The future life of a project also presents new
expectations since the company keeps updating its scenarios
in time. This dissertation shows that it is possible to
follow-up on the profitability of a project as soon as it is
approved and that it is feasible to check the influences of
many factors on the estimated profitability variation. This
follow-up is a major contributor to organizational
learning.
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Decisões de financiamento e de investimento das empresas sob a ótica de gestores otimistas e excessivamente confiantes / Financing and investment decisions of firms by overconfident and optimistic managersBarros, Lucas Ayres Barreira de Campos 19 December 2005 (has links)
Esta pesquisa investiga empiricamente as possíveis influências de gestores cognitivamente enviesados sobre as decisões de financiamento e de investimento das empresas. Especificamente, dois vieses cognitivos amplamente documentados na literatura comportamental e psicológica são enfocados: o otimismo e o excesso de confiança. As hipóteses de pesquisa são derivadas de um crescente corpo de teorias dedicadas à exploração das implicações para a empresa da presença destes traços psicológicos nos seus gestores. Embora o otimismo e o excesso de confiança tendam a se manifestar conjuntamente, é possível tratá-los separadamente para fins analíticos. Genericamente, o otimismo costuma ser modelado como uma superestimação da probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos favoráveis, ao passo que o excesso de confiança reflete-se na subestimação da volatilidade ou do ruído de processos que envolvem incerteza. Argumenta-se que uma predição central emerge do conjunto dos modelos considerados, qual seja, empresas geridas por indivíduos otimistas e/ou excessivamente confiantes são mais propensas ao endividamento, ceteris paribus. Alguns modelos que enfocam apenas o viés do otimismo também sugerem que estas empresas são mais propensas a adotar uma hierarquização de preferências por fontes de financiamento conhecida como pecking order. Quanto ao impacto destes vieses sobre o valor de mercado e sobre as decisões de investimento das empresas os resultados teóricos são ambíguos. O estudo oferece duas contribuições principais. A primeira é o teste pioneiro das predições referidas acima e a segunda é a proposição de uma estratégia inovadora de identificação destes vieses entre os gestores. Especificamente, sólidas evidências empíricas apoiadas por argumentos teóricos diversos sugerem que os indivíduos que gerenciam o seu próprio negócio (empreendedores) são particularmente propensos a exibir excesso de confiança e otimismo exacerbado em seus julgamentos. Alternativamente, estes vieses são identificados com base no padrão de posse de ações da própria empresa por parte dos seus gestores. Utiliza-se uma amostra de 153 empresas brasileiras observadas entre os anos de 1998 e 2003. Diferentes métodos foram empregados para estimar os parâmetros dos modelos empíricos, com destaque para o procedimento baseado no Método dos Momentos Generalizado conhecido como GMM Sistêmico, sempre com o objetivo de controlar os problemas de endogeneidade relacionados, em particular, com variáveis omitidas, erros de mensuração e com a provável determinação simultânea de algumas variáveis. Os dados não mostram evidências favoráveis à hipótese da hierarquização de fontes de financiamento. Tampouco é possível divisar qualquer impacto sistemático das variáveis substitutas do otimismo/excesso de confiança dos gestores sobre medidas do valor de mercado e do volume geral de investimentos das empresas. Um resultado bastante significativo emerge, não obstante, da análise empírica: empresas geridas por indivíduos classificados como otimistas/excessivamente confiantes revelam-se, depois de isolados diversos fatores intervenientes, substancialmente mais alavancadas financeiramente do que as demais. Esta evidência, compatível com a predição central do conjunto de teorias comportamentais consideradas, é robusta a variações do método de estimação, da especificação do modelo empírico e da definição operacional escolhida para os vieses de interesse. A significância econômica aliada à significância estatística da influência observada sugere que otimismo e o excesso de confiança dos gestores podem exercer impacto significativo sobre decisões corporativas e, em especial, podem ser importantes determinantes da estrutura de capital das empresas. / This research empirically investigates the possible impacts of cognitively biased managers on firms\' financing and investment decisions. Specifically, two cognitive biases that are widely recorded in the behavioral and psychological literature are considered: optimism and overconfidence. The testable hypotheses are derived from a growing body of theories that focus on the implications of biased managers for firms. Although optimism and overconfidence tend to appear together, it is possible to treat them separately for analytical purposes. Generically, optimism is usually modeled as an overstatement of the probability of occurrence of favorable events and overconfidence is reflected in the understatement of the volatility or of the noise of processes that involve uncertainty. It is argued that one central prediction emerges from the set of models considered, namely, that companies managed by optimistic and/or overconfident individuals are more inclined towards debt financing, ceteris paribus. Some models that focus on the bias of optimism alone suggest, in addition, that these companies are more prone to establishing an ordering of preferences for alternative sources of financing known as pecking order. When it comes to the impact of these biases on the firm\'s market value and on its investment decisions the theoretical results are more ambiguous. The study offers two main contributions. Firstly, it pioneers in testing the above mentioned predictions. Secondly, it proposes a novel strategy for identifying these biases among managers. Specifically, solid empirical evidence supported by diverse theoretical arguments suggests that people who run their own business (entrepreneurs) are particularly prone to showing overconfidence and optimism in their judgments. Alternatively, these biases were identified based on the amount of firm\'s stock owned by its manager. The available sample comprises 153 Brazilians firms observed from years 1998 to 2003. Different methods were applied for estimating the parameters of the empirical models, emphasizing a procedure based on the Generalized Method of Moments and known as System GMM, aiming at controlling endogeneity problems related to omitted variables, measurement errors and the likely simultaneous determination of some variables. The empirical evidence obtained does not favor the pecking order hypothesis. It is also not possible to distinguish any systematic impact of the proxies for managerial optimism/overconfidence on indicators of firm\'s market value or of its general level of investments. A quite significant result emerges from the empirical analysis, nevertheless: firms managed by individuals that were classified as optimists/overconfident reveal themselves, after intervening factors have been isolated, to be substantially more financially leveraged. This evidence is compatible with the central prediction of the set of theories considered and is robust to variations of the estimation method, specification of the empirical model and to differing operational definitions for the cognitive biases of interest. The economic significance allied to the statistical significance of the observed impact suggests that managerial optimism and overconfidence can indeed play a role in corporate decision making and, specifically, they may be important determinants of firms\' capital structure.
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