Submitted by Lucas De Moura Reis (lucsreis@gmail.com) on 2013-08-27T20:52:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - versão final Lucas Reis.pdf: 1558450 bytes, checksum: 422a7b41e44ddd6bb0304488e4e6a7c4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2013-08-30T18:57:30Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - versão final Lucas Reis.pdf: 1558450 bytes, checksum: 422a7b41e44ddd6bb0304488e4e6a7c4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-19T19:51:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - versão final Lucas Reis.pdf: 1558450 bytes, checksum: 422a7b41e44ddd6bb0304488e4e6a7c4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-23 / A forte apreciação cambial que o Brasil sofreu na última década se traduziu em um novo debate acerca da hipótese de Doença Holandesa no país. Como a queda da taxa de câmbio real ocorreu em um período de alta de preços de commodities e nos últimos anos, especialmente após a crise de 2008, vimos uma maior concentração da pauta exportadora em produtos primários, muitos economistas argumentam que a apreciação foi consequência do boom de commodities e que, em razão disso, o Brasil poderia estar sofrendo da Doença Holandesa. Este trabalho mostra que o boom de commodities não foi a principal causa da apreciação da taxa de câmbio real e não representou uma maior dependência destas mercadorias. A mudança do perfil de risco da economia brasileira foi um dos fatores mais importante para a queda da taxa de câmbio. Concluímos, portanto, que a recente perda de competitividade dos demais setores exportadores não pode ser atribuída exclusivamente à valorização das commodities. / The strong appreciation of the Brazilian currency in the last decade has resulted in a new debate on whether the economy has caught the Dutch Disease. The fall of the real exchange rate has occurred in a period of growing commodity prices and, since we have seen a greater concentration of Brazilian exports in primary goods in recent years, specially after the recent financial crisis, many economists argue that the appreciation was due to the commodity boom and that, as a consequence, Brazil could be suffering from the Dutch Disease. This paper shows that, although the relative importance of these goods in the trade balance is high, the commodity boom was not the main cause of the appreciation of the real exchange rate and did not reflect in a higher dependence on primary goods. Another determinant factor for the real exchange rate appreciation was the change in the Brazilian country risk. We therefore conclude that the recent loss of competitiveness of other export sectors cannot be exclusively attributed to the rise in commodity prices.

The globalized economy has incentivized Swedish companies to invest abroad, especially in emerging markets. When expanding into foreign markets companies must evaluate the adhering risks associated with that particular market. It is paramount that companies account for the country risk in their investment analysis, as any miscalculations could have detrimental effects on a company. Evaluating country risk has proven to be difficult due to the sheer range of aspects that may affect an investment. This study examines the required return on equity of Swedish companies in six different markets, and compares it to three different evaluation models in order to determine what variables constituted any misevaluations. Our analysis indicated that a majority of Swedish companies require too high return on equity compared to the empirical results of the applied model. / Globaliseringens utveckling har lett till att svenska investeringar på utländska marknader och ”emerging markets” ökat under de senaste åren. När företag expanderar till utländska marknader tillkommer nya risker som måste beaktas. Således har landsrisken blivit en väsentlig del av värderingen. Landsrisken har visat sig varit svårvärderad då det finns ett antal aspekter som måste beaktas. En eventuell felbedömning kan ha förödande konsekvenser för ett företag. Denna studie undersöker svenska företags avkastningskrav på sex olika marknader gentemot tre värderingsmodeller, och vilka faktorer som påverkat en potentiell fel värdering. Studien visar att majoriteten av de svenska företagen har ett högre avkastningskrav än vad de tillämpade modellerna beräknat.

本研究對1985/1至2016/10期間，37種貨幣的超額報酬與國家風險進行實證分析，以The PRS Group發佈的ICRG綜合風險評級做為國家風險的衡量指標。各國貨幣分別進行時間序列分析的結果顯示，單一國家的國家風險與該國貨幣的匯率走勢及超額報酬並不存在顯著的關聯。 投資組合分析的結果，對高國家風險貨幣與低國家風險貨幣分別執行利差交易，結果顯示兩者的超額報酬並沒有顯著差異。而動能策略在高國家風險貨幣則可以獲得顯著較高的超額報酬。 Fama-Macbeth二步驟迴歸分析結果顯示，高國家風險的投資組合確實擁有較高的因子負載量，然而國家風險因子的市場價格，也就是承受一單位 β_CRISK獲得的國家風險溢酬太低不顯著，因此國家風險無法幫助解釋貨幣報酬。 / We empirically investigate the relation between currency excess returns and country risk, as measured by the ICRG comprehensive risk rating issued by The PRS Group, of 37 currencies during 1985/1 to 2016/10. The result of the single currency time series analysis shows that there is no significant correlation between the country risk and the exchange rate movement, also the currency excess return. As a result of the portfolio analysis, there is no significant difference in excess returns when we execute carry trade respectively on high country risk currencies and low country risk currencies. While the momentum strategy in the high country risk currencies can generate significantly higher excess return. The results of the Fama-Macbeth two-step regression show that the high-risk portfolios do have a higher factor loading, whereas the country risk factor's market price, that is, the country risk premium received by a unit of β_CRISK, is too low. Therefore, country risk cannot help explain currency excess return.

The aim of this study is to analyse political-security risk in Uganda. It emanates from the research question: Does Uganda pose a political-security risk to prospective foreign investment or involvement? The need to move beyond a political risk analysis without entering into a country risk analysis, poses the research problem to develop a political-security risk analysis framework and to apply it to Uganda. This problem generates three subsidiary questions: How appropriate (or inappropriate) are existing risk analysis frameworks? Do existing frameworks contain generic elements that can provide a basis for a synthesised framework? To what extent is a country specific framework applicable to other countries? Therefore, three sub-problems are addressed, namely to determine the appropriateness of selected frameworks; to identify generic elements to construct a synthesised framework; and to assess the applicability of this framework for the analysis of political-security risk in other African countries. Following a definition of the concepts risk, country risk, political risk and political-security risk (analysis), selected frameworks for risk analysis were analysed. The generic elements of these frameworks, namely The Economist (EIU), Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI), International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and Political Risk Services (PRS) frameworks, were reduced to three categories and synthesised into a single framework which was applied to Uganda. The categories of risk indicators pertained to security, political and socio-economic risks respectively. These indicators and the allocated risk scores were used to construct a political-security risk index in respect of which the summed scores provided an index figure of risk that was interpreted in accordance with an interpretation scale. In respect of Uganda, its more recent political history was described and the political, security and socio-economic circumstances prevailing in the country analysed. These conditions were assessed and measured against the indicated risk factors and according to the risk index. The summed political-security risk index score for Uganda was 55.5 out of a maximum of 100. In accordance with the interpretation scale, this constitutes an intermediate risk. Based on this Uganda is not, at present, the most suitable destination for foreign investment or involvement. This does not disallow investment or involvement but if indeed the case, it should be done with circumspection. The situation is volatile to the extent that it can rapidly change for the better or the worse, depending on trends concerning the risk categories, or more specifically a turn of events in respect of a particular key risk indicator. Since the synthesised risk analysis framework is able to accommodate key variables pertaining to politics and security in African states, and since it has provided an indication of risk in respect of Uganda, it is suggested for application to other African states. The need for modification, based on the particularities of other countries, is not excluded. It is also proposed that similar exercises be conducted at intervals of six months. This will indicate whether the variables used were, in fact, valid and reliable, and whether additional variables should be included. The repetition of the analysis also indicates risk trends and allows for the monitoring of risks, which will be conducive to risk management. / Dissertation (MSS (Political Sciences))--University of Pretoria, 2003. / Political Sciences / unrestricted

Thesis (MA) -- Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: For multinational oil corporations (MNOCs), increasing worldwide demand for energy combined with greater competition in the international petroleum market necessitate continuous search for new areas rich in hydrocarbons – and the greatest oil reserves have in many instances been located in authoritarian states with challenging investment environments that often imply great uncertainty with regard to return of investment (ROI). In such cases, proper political risk analysis is an invaluable decision-making tool in determining whether the risk of a negative ROI is too large to make an investment. The Libyan market appeared highly promising for MNOCs from the mid- 2000s, and oil companies decided to return to Libya despite a large degree of uncertainty around regulatory, contractual and political stability issues. Once the Arab uprising surfaced in 2011, eventually turning into a brutal civil war between the Quadhafi regime and the opposition to his rule, the levels of political risk in the Libyan market increased dramatically. A model of political risk analysis can only be as good its components, and the start of 2011 once again manifested the importance of proper political risk analyses in order to minimise potential losses resulting from unexpected events. Thus, in the context of the Arab Spring revolution, the main purpose of this research is to assess the forecasting ability of key political risk factors and indicators. The central question asked is whether political risk analysis as a discipline can be successfully applied as a tool to forecast a political situation within authoritarian states. Specifically, and by analysing the case of Libya, the aim of this study is to determine whether the political events of 2011 and the concurrent extremely high levels of political risk could have been anticipated by competent political risk analysis. This study builds on the 1999 work of Professor Albert Venter and his vindication of key political risk indicators for authoritarian states. Additionally, the study seeks to contribute to existing research by adapting the indicators to an industry-specific political risk context, namely the petroleum sector. The research study concludes that a forecast for Libya, conducted with information available in 2009, would have given the market a medium high level of political risk, with several points of great concern for MNOCs. The research study argues that competent political risk analysis, as far as it is possible to predict such an event as the Libyan uprising, identified several signs of an imminent revolution. The analysis could not forecast when, or even if it would happen, but the fact that several indicators pointed in the direction of increasing levels of political risk signifies that it could have been too early for MNOCs to return to the country in the mid-2000s. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die toenemende wêreldwye energiebehoeftes gepaardgaande met groter mededinging in brandstofmarkte, dwing die Multi-nasionale Olie Korporasies (MNOKs) om deurlopend te soek na nuwe gebiede ryk aan vloeibare koolstowwe (hydrocarbons) en die grootste olie reserwes word in baie gevalle aangetref in state met outoritêre regerings vorme waar die beleggings omgewing van so ’n aard is dat ’n kapitaal-opbrengs (KO) baie keer erg onseker is. In sulke gevalle is dit noodsaaklik dat daar ’n behoorlike analiese van politieke risiko moet wees sodat bepaal kan word of die kans van ’n negatiewe KO te groot is om so ’n belegging te maak. In die beginjare van die 2000s het die Libiese market veel belofte vir die MNOKs ingehou en het hulle besluit om na Libië terug te keer ten spyte van die feit dat daar groot onsekerhede bestaan het ten opsigte van reguleering, kontrakte en politieke stabiliteit. Die vlakke van politieke risiko het in 2011 dramaties verhoog met die Arabiese opstande, wat uiteindelik in ’n burgeroorlog tussen die Quadhafi regime en sy teenstanders, ontaard het. ’n Model van politieke risiko analise is natuurlik net so goed soos sy verskillende dele en aan die begin van 2011 het dit weereens aan die lig gekom dat behoorlike politieke risiko analise baie belangrik is om te verseker dat onverwagte gebeure die kleins moontlike invloed op winste sal hê. Dus, met die ‘Arabiese Lente revolusie’ as agtergrond, is die hoofdoel van hierdie navorsing om te bepaal tot watter mate belangrike politieke risiko faktore en indikators gebruik kan word om voorspellings te waag. Die vraag word gevra of politieke risiko analise, as disipline, suksesvol toegepas kan word om die politieke toestande in outoritêre state, te voorspel. Deur spesifiek die geval Libië te analiseer, is die doel van hierdie studie om te bepaal of die politieke gebeure van 2011 en die ernstige verhoogde vlakke van politieke risiko redelikerwys voorspel sou kan wees as daar bevoegde politieke risiko analise vooraf was. Hierdie studie gebruik as basis die 1999 werk van Prof. Albert Venter waarin hy regverdiging toon van die politieke risiko indikators vir outoritêre state. Daarby beoog die studie om by te dra tot bestaande navorsing deur die indikators aan te pas vir toepassing in ’n ondernemings-spesifieke politieke risiko konteks, naamlik die brandstof sektor. Die navorsing maak die gevolgtrekking wat Libië betref, met die inligting wat in 2009 beskikbaar was, dat ’n voorspelling van ñ medium hoog vlak van politieke risiko vir die market gemaak kon wees met sekere punte van groot kommer vir die MNOKs. Die navorsingstudie maak die punt dat bevoegde politieke risiko analise, sover dit moontlik is om ’n onverwagte gebeurtenis soos die Libiese opstande te voorspel, verskeie tekens van ’n dreigende revolusie geïdentifiseer het. Die analise kon nie voorspel wanneer of selfs indien dit sou gebeur nie, maar die feit dat verskeie indikators getoon het dat daar verhoogde vlakke van politieke risiko was, het dit aangedui het dat die middle 2000s te vroeg was vir die MNOKs om na die land terug te keer.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The central research question of this study concerns how corruption as a political risk factor should be measured in order to provide an accurate assessment of the risk factor within the oil and gas industry. The aim is to answer this question with the aid and support of two sub-questions that have been identified as crucial in pursuing this research. The first sub-question conceptualizes corruption as a political risk factor specifically within the oil and gas industry. The second sub-question addresses the oil and gas industry-specific indicators of corruption as a political risk factor. The research embarks upon seven industry-specific indicators, by isolating the relevant national political structural and institutional framework, which has proved essential in identifying the level of corruption as a risk to the oil and gas investor. The indicators are regarded as the most salient variables that can measure the level of corruption as a political risk in a realistic and practical approach. The indicators are subsequently systemised into a matrix that is constructed with the aim of using it as a general measurement tool for oil and gas investors. The study argues that this measurement tool can be of use to the oil and gas investor as it contributes to businesses recognition and anticipation of corruption. The matrix is furthermore applied to the oil and gas industry in Nigeria, in an attempt to test the matrix, and in order to establish how and to what level corruption constitutes as a political risk factor for the oil and gas industry in this country. The result of the indicators demonstrates that the political risk of encountering corruption for the oil and gas investor in Nigeria is of a high level. This study provides a valid basis of constituting how corruption manifests as a risk for the oil and gas investor. Furthermore, the applicability of the matrix provides a practical utility and constructive assessment. This thesis provides a firm foundation for future research in this field. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die sentrale navorsingsvraag van hierdie studie handel oor hoe korrupsie as 'n politieke risiko faktor gemeet moet word om 'n akkurate bepaling van die risiko faktor binne die oilie- en gas industrie te maak. Die doel is om hierdie vraag te beantwoord met die hulp van twee sub-navorsingsvrae wat geïdentifiseer is essensieël on hierdie navorsing te voltooi. Die eerste sub-navorsingvraag konseptualiseer korrupsie as 'n politieke risiko faktor, spesifiek binne die olie en gas industrie. Die tweede sub-navorsingsvraag handel oor die industrie-spesifieke indikatore van korrupsie as 'n politieke risiko faktor. Die navorsing is gevestig op sewe industrie-spesifieke indikatore, wat geïsoleer word vanaf relevante nasionale politieke strukture en institusionele raamwerke, wat essensieël is in die identifikasie van die vlak van korrupsie as 'n risiko vir die olie en gas belegger. Die indikatore word beskou as die mees prominente veranderlikes wat die vlak van korrupsie as n politieke risiko kan meet, as 'n realistiese en praktiese benadering. Die indikatore word gevolglik geplaas binne 'n raamwerk wat gebou is met die doel om dit te bebruik as 'n algemene maatstaf vir die belegger in die olie-en gas industrie. Hierdie studie argumenteer dat die maatstaf gebruik kan word in die olie-en gas industrie, siende dat dit bydrae tot besighede se erkenning en antisipasie van korrupsie. Die maatstaf word verder toegepas op die geval van die olie-en gas industrie in Nigerië, met die doel om dit te toets en ook om vas te stel tot watter vlak korrupsie as 'n politieke risiko faktor vir die olie-en gas industrie teenwoordig is in hierdie land. Die resultaat van die indikatore dui daarop dat daar 'n hoë vlak van politieke risiko vir die olie-en gas industrie in Nigerië bestaan. Die studie verskaf 'n geldige basis om vas te stel hoe korrupsie in die olie-en gas industrie manifesteer. Verder, die toepaslikheid van die maatstaf verskaf praktiese bruikbaarheid en konstruktiewe meeting. Die tesis verskaf 'n stewige basis vir toekomstige navrsing in die veld.

Bibliography / Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: International agencies are facing heightened levels of security risk in conflict zones. The nature of contemporary conflicts and the post-9/11 global political-security environment have contributed to a situation whereby the threat of attack as well as recurring criminal violence are a constant reality for their employees, hindering their work and obstructing their access to people in need. Moreover, the ability of international agencies to conduct strategic risk assessment has been called into question. The central research question of this study concerns whether an industry-specific political-security risk model can be applied successfully in order to assist international agencies with strategic political-security risk analysis in conflict zones. In order to develop a political-security risk model for international agencies a number of supplementary research questions are asked. The first of these is what limitations the security risk models currently used by international agencies exhibit. The second question asks what factors and indicators should be included in an industry-specific political-security risk model for international agencies in conflict zones. So as to test the applicability of the model developed in this research study, the last question asks what the level of risk is for international agencies operating in the conflict zone in eastern Chad. Using political risk theory, and drawing upon political risk models specific to the energy industry, this research study proposes an industry-specific political-security risk model for international agencies in conflict zones, in which the limitations of the current models used by international agencies to analyse security risks are overcome. The application of this model to eastern Chad returns an overall risk rating of extreme, which is the highest overall risk rating obtainable. By regularly utilising this model, international agencies are able to monitor the changing levels of security risk in a conflict zone and are therefore better placed to make informed strategic decisions when it comes to risk management and risk mitigation. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Internasionale agentskappe trotseer tans verhoogde vlakke van sekuriteitsrisiko in konfliksones. Die aard van hedendaagse konflikte en die post-9/11 globale politieke sekuriteitsomgewing het bygedra tot ’n situasie waar die bedreiging van aanvalle sowel as die herhalende aard van kriminele geweld vir hul werkers ’n voortdurende realiteit is. As gevolg hiervan word werkers verhinder om hul verpligtinge uit te voer en na mense in nood uit te reik. Boonop word internasionale agentskappe se vermoë om strategiese risiko-asessering uit te voer nou bevraagteken. Die hoofnavorsingsvraag van hierdie studie is: kan ’n industrie-spesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel suksesvol toegepas word om internasionale agentskappe by te staan met strategiese politieke sekuriteitsrisiko-analise in konfliksones, al dan nie. Ten einde ’n politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe te ontwikkel, word daar ook ’n aantal aanvullende navorsingsvrae gevra. Die eerste hiervan stel ondersoek in na die beperkings van die sekuriteitsrisikomodelle wat teenswoordig deur internasionale agentskappe gebruik word. Die tweede vraag vra watter faktore en indikators by ’n industriespesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe in konfliksones ingesluit behoort te word. Ten einde die toepaslikheid te toets van die model wat in hierdie studie ontwikkel is, stel die laaste vraag ondersoek in na die risikovlak vir internasionale agentskappe wat in die konfliksone van oostelike Tsjad werksaam is. Met behulp van politieke risikoteorie en met gebruik van politieke risikomodelle wat spesifiek betrekking het tot die energie-industrie, propageer hierdie navorsingstudie ’n industrie-spesifieke politieke sekuriteitsrisikomodel vir internasionale agentskappe in konfliksones wat die beperkings van die modelle wat huidig deur internasionale agentskappe gebruik word, sal oorwin. Hierdie model se toepassing op oostelike Tsjad toon in die geheel ’n risikowaarde van ekstreem, die hoogste algehele risikowaarde moontlik. Deur hierdie model gereeld te gebruik sal dit internasionale agentskappe in staat stel om die veranderende vlakke van sekuriteitsrisiko in ’n konfliksone te monitor; dus sal hulle meer ingeligte strategiese besluite kan neem wat betref risikobestuur en – verligting.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The study addresses the topic of foreign direct investment in the People's Republic of China (P.Re.) by South African companies, focusing on opportunities and risks in the context of 'South-South Co-operation' between the P.RC. and South Africa. Relations between the two developing countries have only been forged since January 1998 when South Africa recognised the P.RC. government as the dejure representative of China. With the Chinese market of 1.3 billion potential consumers proving to be a lucrative opportunity for all international, multinational and transnational companies, it is imperative for South African companies to gain a foothold in the Chinese market. Therefore, entry requirements as well as impediments that could emerge have to be scrutinised. Analysis of governmental relations currently being forged between the two states is assessed as well as the wider context of 'Sino-Africa' co-operation. China's recent entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has and will continue to have a substantial effect on the international trading system. The implications of this for South African companies is given considerable attention in order to highlight resulting opportunities. Apart from assessmg the current state of relations and identifying investment and business opportunities, the study also focuses on the method of conducting business in China which has highly complex rules and regulations for companies entering the P.RC. An analysis of the different modes of entry is conducted, coupled with a focus on the cultural sensitivities and norms that are associated with building relationships when negotiating possible business partnerships. The study finally identifies potential risks that foreign direct investors need to continually assess, namely, the transfer of political power to a new generation of relatively young leaders, corruption that is spreading within China and the restructuring of State Owned Enterprises (SOE's) and the inevitable consequence of job losses. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie spreek die onderwerp van buitelandse direkte investering in die Volksrepubliek van Sjina (VRS) deur Suid-Afrikaanse maatskappye aan, en fokus op geleenthede en risikos in die konteks van 'Suid-Suid samewerking' tussen die VRS en Suid-Afrika. Betrekkings tussen die twee ontwikkelende lande is eers onlangs gesmee nadat Suid-Afrika in Januarie 1998 die VRS as die dejure verteenwoordiger van Sjina erken het. Met In Sjinese mark van meer as 1.3 miljard potensiële verbruikers wat In winsgewende geleentheid vir alle internasionale, multinasionale en transnasionale maatskappye skep, is dit imperatief vir Suid-Afrikaanse maatskappye om hulself in die Sjinese mark te vestig. Dus moet toegangsvereistes asook moontlike hindernisse noukeurig ondersoek word. Die studie doen 'n analise van betrekkings wat huidiglik tussen die twee state se regerings gesmee word, en die breër konteks van samewerking tussen Sjina en Afrika word ook geëvalueer. Die VRS se onlangse toetrede tot die Wêreldhandelsorganisasie (WHO) het en sal aanhou om 'n wesenlike impak op die internasionale handelsstelsel te hê. Daar word ook aansienlike aandag geskenk aan die implikasies hiervan vir Suid-Afrikaanse maatskappye om sodoende geleenthede uit te lig. Bo en behalwe 'n evaluering van die huidige stand van betrekkings en 'n identifisering van beleggings- en besigheidsgeleenthede, fokus hierdie studie ook op die manier waarop besigheid in Sjina onderneem word, wat uiters gekompliseerde reëls en regulasies insluit vir maatskappye wat die land betree. 'n Analise van die verskillende wyses van toegang is onderneem, tesame met 'n fokus op die kulturele sensitiwiteite en norme wat 'n invloed op die bou van verhoudings tydens die onderhandeling van moontlike besigheidsvennootskappe kan hê. Laastens identifiseer die studie potensiële risikos wat buitelandse direkte beleggers voortdurend in ag moet neem, naamlik die oordrag van mag na 'n nuwe generasie van relatief jong leiers, die verspreiding van korrupsie, die herstrukturering van staatskorporasies en die onvermydelike gevolge van werksverliese.

Thesis (MDF (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The risk of operating in a foreign investment climate is a subject of interest to most investors looking for opportunities to expand their international footprint. There are many organisations that provide risk assessments of the levels of threat of specific risks in foreign countries. However, most focus on political or what is commonly known as country risk or they provide a summary of ranking providing a comparison of different countries’ investment climate attractiveness. The make-up of the variables used in coming up with the ranking or a view on a particular country do not usually provide a level of detail that allows an analyst to understand the qualitative issues that give a country a particular rating assessment or ranking. This research has tried to address this gap by coming up with a detailed qualitative model that provides understanding of the key sources of information required for each major category of risk. The research also attempts to integrate as many aspects of the business environment that could affect a country. A particular case of Malawi has been chosen to demonstrate the level detail and understanding the investors need to reach before making a decision on whether to invest in a country. The research focuses on three major areas. The first is to provide a good understanding of what is currently available for analysts to use in determining risk factors of a particular environment or risk category. The second is to illustrate the uses and limitations of the options available in the form of assessment reports or assessment models. The third is to develop a model and demonstrate its use in the context of Malawi’s investment climate. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die meeste van die beleggers op soek na geleenthede om hul internasionale voetspoor uit te brei, stel ook in die risiko belang wat besigheid in ’n buitelandse beleggingsklimaat inhou. Talle organisasies verskaf risiko-assesserings van die bedreigingsvlakke van spesifieke risiko’s in die buiteland. Die meeste van hulle kyk egter na politieke of landspesifieke risiko’s of hulle verskaf ’n opsomming waarin die ranglysposisies van die aanloklikheid van verskillende lande se beleggingsklimate vergelyk word. Die samestelling van die veranderlikes in hierdie ranglysposisies of oorsig van ’n spesifieke land verskaf gewoonlik nie voldoende detail aan die ontleder om die kwalitatiewe kwessies te verstaan wat aan ’n land ’n spesifieke assessering of ranglysposisie gee nie. Hierdie navorsing fokus op hierdie gaping deur ’n breedvoerige kwalitatiewe model te verskaf vir ’n beter begrip van die vernaamste inligtingsbronne wat vir elke groot risikokategorie vereis word. Hierdie navorsing poog ook om soveel aspekte van die sakeomgewing te integreer wat ’n land kan beïnvloed. Die spesifieke geval van Malawi is gekies om die vlak van detail en begrip te demonstreer wat beleggers nodig het voordat hulle ’n beleggingsbesluit ten opsigte van ’n land kan neem. Die navorsing lê op drie belangrike areas klem. Die eerste is om ’n goeie begrip te bied van die inligting wat tans aan ontleders beskikbaar is om die risikofaktore van ’n spesifieke omgewing of risikokategorie te bepaal. Die tweede is om die gebruike en beperkings te illustreer van die opsies wat in die vorm van assesseringsverslae of assesseringsmodelle beskikbaar is. Die derde is om ’n model te ontwikkel en die gebruik daarvan in die konteks van Malawi se beleggingsklimaat te demonstreer.

Thesis (MDF (Development Finance))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Mozambique managed to attract a lot of foreign direct investment despite it being one of the poorest countries in the world and after it has been through a devastating 17 year civil war. GOP per capita in 1995 was about US$ 144 which was one of the lowest in the world. The country was faced with enormous challenges and risks in terms of both country and political risk. Major risks were associated with investment in that country because of prolonged civil war with no record of macro-economic stability. Despite these huge challenges, Mozambique managed to attract a lot of investment with Mozal 1 being the first big project post civil war. This paper analyses and quantifies where Mozambique was before and after mega projects. This is done by looking at where Mozambique was before Mozal 1 being the first mega project in the country post civil war. The analysis is in terms of political risk as it relates to cross border transactions with specific reference to a number of political risk indicators as suggested by Brink (2004) that prevailed and how the projects were structured to minimize risk. A political risk rating is developed for 1995 and 2005 using the Brink model to check if the project did improve the country's economic health. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Mosambiek het daarin geslaag om grootskaalse direkte buitelandse investering te lok ten spyte van sy status as een van die wereld se armste lande en die verwoestende burgeroorlog wat 17 jaar geduur het. Die BBP per capita was ongeveer US$ 144 in 1995, wat dit een van die laagstes in die wereld gemaak het. Die land het enorme uitdagings en risiko's in die gesig gestaar in terme van die land en die politiek. Die hoofrisiko's het met investering verband gehou vanwee die langdurige burgeroorlog en geen makro-ekonomiese stabiliteit in die land se verlede nie. Ondanks hierdie reuse uitdagings het Mosambiek daarin geslaag om baie investering te lok, waarvan Mozal 1 die eerste megaprojek na die burgeroorlog was. Hierdie tesis analiseer en kwantifiseer Mosambiek se posisie voor en na megaprojekte. Dit is gedoen deur te kyk na hoe Mosambiek daar uitgesien het voor Mozal 1. Die analise is in terme van die verband tussen politieke risiko en oorgrenstransaksies gedoen. Daar word spesifiek verwys na 'n aantal aanwysers van politieke risiko, soos voorgestel deur Brink (2004), wat geheers het en hoe projekte gestruktureer is om risiko te verminder. 'n Gradering van politieke risiko is vir 1995 en 2005 aan die hand van Brink se model ontwikkel om te kontroleer of die projek die land se ekonomiese gesondheid verbeter het.