The aim of this study is to compare the performance of the four interest rate models (Vasicek Model, Cox Ingersoll Ross Model, Ho Lee Model and Black Der- man Toy Model) that are commonly used in pricing zero coupon bond options. In this study, 1{5 years US Treasury Bond daily data between the dates June 1, 1976 and December 31, 2007 are used. By using the four interest rate models, estimated option prices are compared with the real observed prices for the begin- ing work days of each months of the years 2004 and 2005. The models are then evaluated according to the sum of squared errors. Option prices are found by constructing interest rate trees for the binomial models based on Ho Lee Model and Black Derman Toy Model and by estimating the parameters for the Vasicek and the Cox Ingersoll Ross Models.

A number of recent research studies have investigated the performance of panel zones in seismic-resistant steel Special Moment Resisting Frames (SMF). These recent studies investigated various options for attaching doubler plates to the column at beam-column joints in SMF for purpose of increasing the shear strength of the panel zone. This previous work was primarily focused on doubler plates that extend beyond the top and bottom of the attached beams, and considered cases both with and without continuity plates. As an extension to this previous research, this thesis explores the situation when a doubler plate is fitted between the continuity plates. The objective of this research was to evaluate various options for welding fitted doubler plates to the column and continuity plates through the use of finite element analysis, and to provide recommendations for design. The development and validation of the finite element model are described, along with the results of an extensive series of parametric studies on various panel zone configurations and attachment details for fitted doubler plates. Based on the results of these analyses, recommendations are provided for design of welds used for attaching fitted doubler plates in the panel zone of SMF systems. / text

Cette thèse comporte deux parties indépendantes. Dans la première partie, nous nous intéressons à l’analyse asymptotique de quelques statistiques sur les arbres binaires de recherche (ABR). Dans la deuxième partie, nous nous intéressons à l’étude du problème du collectionneur de coupons impatient. Dans la première partie, en suivant le modèle introduit par Aguech, Lasmar et Mahmoud [Probab. Engrg. Inform. Sci. 21 (2007) 133—141], on définit la profondeur pondérée d’un nœud dans un arbre binaire enraciné étiqueté comme la somme de toutes les clés sur le chemin qui relie ce nœud à la racine. Nous analysons alors dans ABR, les profondeurs pondérées des nœuds avec des clés données, le dernier nœud inséré, les nœuds ordonnés selon le processus de recherche en profondeur, la profondeur pondérée des trajets, l’indice de Wiener pondéré et les profondeurs pondérées des nœuds avec au plus un enfant. Dans la deuxième partie, nous étudions la forme asymptotique de la courbe de la complétion de la collection conditionnée à T_n≤ (1+Λ), Λ>0, où T_n≃n ln⁡n désigne le temps nécessaire pour compléter la collection. Puis, en tant qu’application, nous étudions les automates déterministes et accessibles et nous fournissons une nouvelle dérivation d’une formule due à Korsunov [Kor78, Kor86] / This Phd thesis is divided into two independent parts. In the first part, we provide an asymptotic analysis of some statistics on the binary search tree. In the second part, we study the coupon collector problem with a constraint. In the first part, following the model introduced by Aguech, Lasmar and Mahmoud [Probab. Engrg. Inform. Sci. 21 (2007) 133—141], the weighted depth of a node in a labelled rooted tree is the sum of all labels on the path connecting the node to the root. We analyze the following statistics : the weighted depths of nodes with given labels, the last inserted node, nodes ordered as visited by the depth first search procees, the weighted path length, the weighted Wiener index and the weighted depths of nodes with at most one child in a random binary search tree. In the second part, we study the asymptotic shape of the completion curve of the collection conditioned to T_n≤ (1+Λ), Λ>0, where T_n≃n ln⁡n is the time needed to complete accessible automata, we provide a new derivation of a formula due to Korsunov [Kor78, Kor86]

This thesis provides a general methodology for classifying and describing many combinatoric problems, systematising and finding theoretical expressions for quantities of interest, and investigating their feasible numerical evaluation. Unifying notation and definitions are provided. Our knowledge of random allocations is also extended. This is achieved by investigating new processes, generalising known processes, and by providing a formal structure and innovative techniques for analysing them. The random allocation models described in this thesis can be classified as occupancy urn models, in which we have a sequence of urns and throw balls into them, and investigate static, waiting-time and dynamic processes. Various structures are placed on the relationship(s) between cells, balls, and the selection of items being distributed, including varieties, batch arrivals, taboo sets and blocking sets. Static, waiting-time and dynamic processes are investigated. Both without-replacement and with-replacement sampling types are considered. Emphasis is placed on the distributions of waiting-times for one or more events to occur measured from the time a particular event occurs; this begins as an abstraction and generalisation of a model of departures of cars parked in lanes. One of several additional determinations is the platoon size distribution. Models are analysed using combinatorial analysis and Markov Chains. Global attributes are measured, including maximum waits, maximum room required, moments and the clustering of completions. Various conversion formulae have been devised to reduce calculation times by several orders of magnitude. New and extended applications include Queueing in Lanes, Cake Displays, Coupon Collector's Problem, Sock-Sorting, Matching Dependent Sets (including Genetic Code Attribute Matching and the game SET), the Zig-Zag Problem, Testing for Randomness (including the Cake Display Test, which is a without-replacement test similar to the standard Empty Cell test), Waiting for Luggage at an Airport, Breakdowns in a Network, Learning Theory and Estimating the Number of Skeletons at an Archaeological Dig. Fundamental, reduction and covering theorems provide ways to reduce the number of calculations required. New combinatorial identities are discovered and a well-known one is proved in a combinatorial way for the first time. Some known results are derived from simple cases of the general models. / http://proxy.library.adelaide.edu.au/login?url= http://library.adelaide.edu.au/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?BBID=1309598 / Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Sciences, 2007

This thesis provides a general methodology for classifying and describing many combinatoric problems, systematising and finding theoretical expressions for quantities of interest, and investigating their feasible numerical evaluation. Unifying notation and definitions are provided. Our knowledge of random allocations is also extended. This is achieved by investigating new processes, generalising known processes, and by providing a formal structure and innovative techniques for analysing them. The random allocation models described in this thesis can be classified as occupancy urn models, in which we have a sequence of urns and throw balls into them, and investigate static, waiting-time and dynamic processes. Various structures are placed on the relationship(s) between cells, balls, and the selection of items being distributed, including varieties, batch arrivals, taboo sets and blocking sets. Static, waiting-time and dynamic processes are investigated. Both without-replacement and with-replacement sampling types are considered. Emphasis is placed on the distributions of waiting-times for one or more events to occur measured from the time a particular event occurs; this begins as an abstraction and generalisation of a model of departures of cars parked in lanes. One of several additional determinations is the platoon size distribution. Models are analysed using combinatorial analysis and Markov Chains. Global attributes are measured, including maximum waits, maximum room required, moments and the clustering of completions. Various conversion formulae have been devised to reduce calculation times by several orders of magnitude. New and extended applications include Queueing in Lanes, Cake Displays, Coupon Collector's Problem, Sock-Sorting, Matching Dependent Sets (including Genetic Code Attribute Matching and the game SET), the Zig-Zag Problem, Testing for Randomness (including the Cake Display Test, which is a without-replacement test similar to the standard Empty Cell test), Waiting for Luggage at an Airport, Breakdowns in a Network, Learning Theory and Estimating the Number of Skeletons at an Archaeological Dig. Fundamental, reduction and covering theorems provide ways to reduce the number of calculations required. New combinatorial identities are discovered and a well-known one is proved in a combinatorial way for the first time. Some known results are derived from simple cases of the general models. / http://proxy.library.adelaide.edu.au/login?url= http://library.adelaide.edu.au/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?BBID=1309598 / Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Sciences, 2007

In this study, four frequently used yield curve construction methods are evaulated on a set of metrics with the aim of determining which method is the most suitable for estimating yield curves from European zero rates. The included curve construction methods are Nelson-Siegel, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson, cubic spline interpolation and forward monotone convex spline interpolation. We let the methods construct yield curves on multiple sets of zero yields with different origins. It is found that while the interpolation methods show greater ability to adapt to variable market conditions as well as hedge arbitrary fixed income claims, they are outperformed by the parametric methods regarding the smoothness of the resulting yield curve as well as their sensitivity to noise and perturbations in the input rates. This apart from the Nelson-Siegel method's problem of capturing the behavior of underlying rates with a high curvature. The Nelson-Siegel-Svensson method did also exhibit instability issues when exposed to perturbations in the input rates. The Nelson-Siegel method and the forward monotone convex spline interpolation method emerge as most favorable in their respective categories. The ultimate selection between the two methods must however take the application at hand into consideration due to their fundamentally different characteristics. / I denna studie utvärderas fyra välanvända metode för att konstruera yieldkurvor på ett antal punkter. Detta med syfte att utröna vilken metod som är bäst lämpad för att estimera yieldkurvor på Europeiska nollkupongräntor. Metoderna som utvärderas är Nelson-Siegel, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson, cubic spline-interpolering samt forward monotone convex spline-interpolering. Vi låter metoderna estimera yieldkurvor på flera sammansättningar nollkupongräntor med olika ursprung. Vi ser att interpoleringsmetoderna uppvisar en större flexibilitet vad gäller att anpassa sig till förändrade marknadsförutsättningar samt att replikera godtyckliga ränteportföljer. När det gäller jämnhet av yieldkurvan och känsligheten för brus och störningar i de marknadsräntor som kurvan konstrueras utifrån så presterar de parametiska metoderna däremot avsevärt bättre. Detta bortsett från att Nelson-Siegel-metoden hade problem att fånga beteendet hos nollkupongräntor med hög kurvatur. Vidare hade Nelson-Siegel-Svensson-metoden problem med instabilitet när de underliggande marknadsrentorna utsattes för störningar. Nelson-Siegen-metoden samt foward monotone convex spline-interpolering visade sig vara bäst lämpade för att konstruera yieldkurvor på de Europeiska marknaderna av de utvärderade metoderna. Vilken metod av de två som slutligen bör användas behöver bedömas från fall till fall grundat i vilken tillämpning som avses.

In der akademischen Fachliteratur existieren kaum Forschungsergebnisse zu One-to-One-Marketing, die auf Anwendungen im Einzelhandel ausgerichtet sind. Zu den Hauptgründen zählen, dass Ansätze nicht auf die Größe typischer Einzelhandelsanwendungen skalieren und dass die Datenverfügbarkeit auf Händler und Marketing-Systemanbieter beschränkt ist. Die vorliegende Dissertation entwickelt neue deskriptive, prädiktive und präskriptive Modelle für automatisiertes Target Marketing, die auf Representation Learning und Deep Learning basieren, und untersucht deren Wirksamkeit in Praxisanwendungen. Im ersten Schritt zeigt die Arbeit, dass Representation Learning in der Lage ist, skalierbar Marktstrukturen zu analysieren. Der vorgeschlagene Ansatz zur Visualisierung von Marktstrukturen ist vollständig automatisiert und existierenden Methoden überlegen. Die Arbeit entwickelt anschließend ein skalierbares, nichtparametrisches Modell, das Produktwahl auf Konsumentenebene für alle Produkte im Sortiment großer Einzelhändler vorhersagt. Das Deep Neural Network übertrifft die Vorhersagekraft existierender Benchmarks und auf Basis des Modells abgeleitete Coupons erzielen signifikant höhere Umsatzsteigerungen. Die Dissertation untersucht abschließend eine Coupon-Engine, die auf den entwickelten Modellen basiert. Der Vergleich personalisierter Werbeaktionen mit Massenmarketing belegt, dass One-to-One Marketing Einlösungsraten, Umsätze und Gewinne steigern kann. Eine Analyse der Kundenreaktionen auf personalisierte Coupons im Rahmen eines Kundenbindungsprogrammes zeigt, dass personalisiertes Marketing Systemnutzung erhöht. Dies illustriert, wie Target Marketing und Kundenbindungsprogramme effizient kombiniert werden können. Die vorliegende Dissertation ist somit sowohl für Forscher als auch für Praktiker relevant. Neben leistungsfähigeren Modellansätzen bietet diese Arbeit relevante Implikationen für effizientes Promotion-Management und One-to-One-Marketing im Einzelhandel. / Research on one-to-one marketing with a focus on retailing is scarce in academic literature. The two main reasons are that the target marketing approaches proposed by researchers do not scale to the size of typical retail applications and that data regarding one-to-one marketing remain locked within retailers and marketing solution providers. This dissertation develops new descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive marketing models for automated target marketing that are based on representation learning and deep learning and studies the models’ impact in real-life applications. First, this thesis shows that representation learning is capable of analyzing market structures at scale. The proposed approach to visualizing market structures is fully automated and superior to existing mapping methods that are based on the same input data. The thesis then proposes a scalable, nonparametric model that predicts product choice for the entire assortment of a large retailer. The deep neural network outperforms benchmark methods for predicting customer purchases. Coupon policies based on the proposed model lead to substantially higher revenue lifts than policies based on the benchmark models. The remainder of the thesis studies a real-time offer engine that is based on the proposed models. The comparison of personalized promotions to non-targeted promotions shows that one-to-one marketing increases redemption rates, revenues, and profits. A study of customer responses to personalized price promotions within the retailer’s loyalty program reveals that personalized marketing also increases loyalty program usage. This illustrates how targeted price promotions can be integrated smoothly into loyalty programs. In summary, this thesis is highly relevant for both researchers and practitioners. The new deep learning models facilitate more scalable and efficient one-to-one marketing. In addition, this research offers pertinent implications for promotion management and one-to-one marketing.