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Magistro baigiamajame darbe išanalizuota ir įvertinta valstybių kredito reitingų suteikimo metodologija, šio proceso kritika, pateikti pasiūlymai esamoms problemoms spręsti. Atlikta koreliacinė, regresinė, pagrindinių komponenčių analizė ir pasinaudojus trijų Baltijos šalių – Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos, pavyzdžiu surasti trys atskiri modeliai, tiksliausiai prognozuojantys minėtų valstybių kredito reitingus, remiantis makroekonominiais rodikliais. Pirmoje darbo dalyje teoriniu aspektu nagrinėjama kredito reitingo samprata, jo reikšmė finansų rinkoms, apibrėžiamos priežastys, lemiančios kredito reitingų trūkumus ir pateikiami tobulinimo siūlymai. Antroje dalyje analizuojamos trijų pagrindinių kredito reitingo agentūrų – Standard and Poor‘s, Fitch ir Moody‘s valstybių kredito reitingo suteikimo metodologijos, tiriama mokslinė literatūra, nagrinėjanti kredito reitingo priklausomybę nuo makroekonominių rodiklių, pateikiamas tyrimo modelis, nagrinėjamos su juo susijusios problemos, apibrėžiama darbo eiga. Trečioje dalyje sudaromos tiesinės daugianarės regresijos lygtys, naudojamos prognozuoti Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos kredito reitingą, atliekamas ateities kredito reitingų prognozavimas remiantis faktiniais 2012 m. IV ketvirčio duomenimis ir numatomais scenarijais. / Master's Work analyzed and evaluated methodology of sovereign credit ratings, the critique of the process itself and proposed solutions for existing problems. Correlation, regression and principal components analysis were used to determine distinct models for the three Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Lithuania, that accurately predicts future credit ratings based on macro-economic indicators. The first part examines theoretical aspect of the concept of credit rating, its value to the global financial markets, defines the causes of the credit rating errors, presents possible solutions for the failures of credit ratings. In the second section methodologies used by Standard and Poor's, Fitch and Moody's to determine sovereign credit ratings are analyzed, scientific literature on the dependence of credit rating and macro-economic indicators are examined, research model and problems associated with it are presented, workflow is defined. In the third part linear multiple regression equations are derived which are used to predict future credit ratings of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, future credit ratings predictions are carried out based on actual year 2012 fourth quarter data and future scenarios.

本研究以權益基礎報酬占總報酬的比率來捕捉薪酬結構，並據以探討給予審計委員會的薪酬結構對於公司權益資金成本及信用評等之影響。利用 2006 至 2010 年間納入美國 S&P1500指數之公司 (排除金融服務與保險業) 為樣本，本研究發現，若權益基礎報酬佔審計委員會薪酬比率越高，其公司之權益資金成本越低，但該公司之信用評等卻越差。顯示權益基礎報酬之比重在二種財報使用者眼中具有不同涵義。投資人認為給予審計委員會較高之權益基礎報酬比重，可使監督更有效，投資人承擔之資訊風險降低，進而願意降低其要求報酬；信用評等機構則認為，給予較高的權益基礎報酬比重將傷害審計委員會獨立性，影響公司治理結構，並降低財務報導之品質，因而給予此類公司較差之信用評等。 / This study examines how investors and credit rating agents react to audit committees’ equity-based compensation. Based on a sample of S&P 1500 firms during 2006-2010, the empirical results show that firms who pay audit committees higher portion of equity-based compensation have lower cost of equity capital and lower credit rating. These results suggest different information users perceive and react to equity-based compensation in different ways. Particularly, investors appear to perceive that higher portion of equity-based compensation can align audit committee members’ interest with the shareholders’, leading to more effective monitoring and smaller information risk. Therefore, investors react by reducing their cost of equity capital. In contrast, credit rating agents appear to perceive that higher portion of equity-based compensation may harm audit committees’ independence, resulting in decreased quality of financial reporting. Therefore, credit rating agents react by downgrading firms’ credit ratings.

本文主要是討論市場上有哪些因素會影響信用違約交換的價格(價差)，並且透過2005年初發生的通用汽車與福特汽車信用評等調降事件，研究信用評等的改變對於股票、債券與信用違約交換市場的影響。 一開始先介紹信用衍生性商品市場的發展。第二部份則介紹評價信用違約交換的模型，並由模型中找出可能影響信用違約交換價格的因素，並且提出公司本身發佈的消息也可能會影響價差的改變，甚至更為明顯，但沒有任何一個評價模型包含這樣一個因素。而透過對通用汽車與福特汽車事件的研究，我們發現兩家公司的股票、公司債或是信用違約交換價格(價差)都在評等調降的消息發布前已經事先反映公司經營不善的狀況，或是所面臨的困境，而在評等調降結果真正公佈的時點時，市場的反應反而沒有預期的明顯。對於公司內部發佈的消息，或是預期之外的事件，價格或價差則會大幅波動。

This thesis deals with the development, implementation and application of statistical modeling techniques which can be employed in the analysis of credit ratings. Credit ratings are one of the most widely used measures of credit risk and are relevant for a wide array of financial market participants, from investors, as part of their investment decision process, to regulators and legislators as a means of measuring and limiting risk. The majority of credit ratings is produced by the "Big Three" credit rating agencies Standard & Poors', Moody's and Fitch. Especially in the light of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, these rating agencies have been strongly criticized for failing to assess risk accurately and for the lack of transparency in their rating methodology. However, they continue to maintain a powerful role as financial market participants and have a huge impact on the cost of funding. These points of criticism call for the development of modeling techniques that can 1) facilitate an understanding of the factors that drive the rating agencies' evaluations, 2) generate insights into the rating patterns that these agencies exhibit. This dissertation consists of three research articles. The first one focuses on variable selection and assessment of variable importance in accounting-based models of credit risk. The credit risk measure employed in the study is derived from credit ratings assigned by ratings agencies Standard & Poors' and Moody's. To deal with the lack of theoretical foundation specific to this type of models, state-of-the-art statistical methods are employed. Different models are compared based on a predictive criterion and model uncertainty is accounted for in a Bayesian setting. Parsimonious models are identified after applying the proposed techniques. The second paper proposes the class of multivariate ordinal regression models for the modeling of credit ratings. The model class is motivated by the fact that correlated ordinal data arises naturally in the context of credit ratings. From a methodological point of view, we extend existing model specifications in several directions by allowing, among others, for a flexible covariate dependent correlation structure between the continuous variables underlying the ordinal credit ratings. The estimation of the proposed models is performed using composite likelihood methods. Insights into the heterogeneity among the "Big Three" are gained when applying this model class to the multiple credit ratings dataset. A comprehensive simulation study on the performance of the estimators is provided. The third research paper deals with the implementation and application of the model class introduced in the second article. In order to make the class of multivariate ordinal regression models more accessible, the R package mvord and the complementary paper included in this dissertation have been developed. The mvord package is available on the "Comprehensive R Archive Network" (CRAN) for free download and enhances the available ready-to-use statistical software for the analysis of correlated ordinal data. In the creation of the package a strong emphasis has been put on developing a user-friendly and flexible design. The user-friendly design allows end users to estimate in an easy way sophisticated models from the implemented model class. The end users the package appeals to are practitioners and researchers who deal with correlated ordinal data in various areas of application, ranging from credit risk to medicine or psychology.

Submitted by Miguel de Campos Pinto Coelho (miguelpintocoelho@gmail.com) on 2016-03-01T02:08:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2015-16_S2-932304-Miguel_Pinto_Coelho.pdf: 1544988 bytes, checksum: 0410eb0c13fc1b0030abc341426188b1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2016-03-01T12:28:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2015-16_S2-932304-Miguel_Pinto_Coelho.pdf: 1544988 bytes, checksum: 0410eb0c13fc1b0030abc341426188b1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-01T13:13:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2015-16_S2-932304-Miguel_Pinto_Coelho.pdf: 1544988 bytes, checksum: 0410eb0c13fc1b0030abc341426188b1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-01-18 / This project investigates if there was any influence of credit rating agencies and long-term government bond yields on each other before, during and after Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. This is addressed by estimating the relationship and causality between sovereign debt ratings or bond yields and macroeconomic and structural variables following a different procedure to explain ratings and bond yields. It is found evidence that, in distressed periods, ratings and yields do affect one another. This suggests that a rating downgrade might create a self-fulfilling prophecy, leading relatively stable countries to default. / Neste projeto, investigamos se as agências de rating e as taxas de juro de longo prazo da dívida soberana tiveram uma influência recíproca antes, durante e após a crise da dívida soberana Europeia. Esta análise é realizada, estimando a relação existente entre os ratings da dívida soberana ou taxas de juro e factores macroeconomicos e estruturais, através de uma diferente aplicação de metodologias utilizadas para este efeito. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que, no período da crise soberana, os ratings e as taxas de juros tiveram um mútuo impacto, sugerindo que as descidas dos ratings podem ter conduzido a profecias auto-realizáveis, levando países relativamente estáveis a um eventual incumprimento

The implementation of International Accounting Standard 32 Financial Instruments: Disclosure and Presentation (lAS 32), International Accounting Standard 39 Financial Instruments: Recognition and Measurement (lAS 39) and International Financial Reporting Standard 7 Financial Instruments: Disclosures (IFRS 7) by developing countries has been met with mixed reactions largely due to the extensive use of the fair value concept by the three accounting standards. The use of the fair value concept in developing countries has proved to be a significant challenge due to either a Jack of formal capital market systems or very thinly traded capital markets. This study investigates the obstacles to determining fair values of equity share investments, government bonds and corporate bonds, treasury bills and loan advances in Mozambique. The study was done through a combination of literature review and empirical research using a questionnaire. The trading statistics of the financial instruments on the Mozambique Stock Exchange and the prospectuses of bonds were used. The empirical research was carried out using a type of non-probability sampling technique called purposive sampling. A subcategory of purposive sampling called expert sampling was used to select the eventual sample which was composed of people with specialised knowledge on the capital market system in Mozambique. The results of the empirical research were analysed using pie charts to summarise the responses. The research concluded that the Mozambique Stock Exchange is an inactive market for financial instruments characterised by thin trading in both equity shares and bonds. The estimation of fair values evidenced by observable market transactions is therefore impossible. The absence of credit rating agencies in Mozambique presents a significant challenge in assigning credit risk and pricing financial instruments such as bonds. The research also noted that significant volatility of the main economic indicators such as treasury bills interest rates and inflation made it difficult to determine fair values of financial instruments using financial modelling techniques. Due to the above obstacles to determining fair values of certain financial instruments in Mozambique, the best alternatives are to value these financial instruments at either cost or amortised cost. / Financial Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)

Submitted by DANY Rogers (danyrogers@pontal.ufu.br) on 2012-11-13T17:38:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_VersãoFinal.pdf: 995043 bytes, checksum: b0f42b67aa58d63a0d387fff6aff0867 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2012-11-13T18:12:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_VersãoFinal.pdf: 995043 bytes, checksum: b0f42b67aa58d63a0d387fff6aff0867 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-11-13T18:14:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_VersãoFinal.pdf: 995043 bytes, checksum: b0f42b67aa58d63a0d387fff6aff0867 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-10-19 / A credit rating of low (or high) risk enables a reduction (or increase) the spread paid by the issuer at the time of issuance of credit, as well as in capturing financing and bank lendings. So, the rating appears as a relevant aspect in the decisions of the capital structure of a company, mostly for the possibility of influencing on their levels of debt. However, despite the importance given by the market players and the existence of empirical evidence of the effect of the rating about the capital structure of a company, the few existing studies on the associations between trends of reclassifications of credit ratings and decisions on structure of capital of a firm does not has approached the Latin American markets. In markets of Latin America are not common studies showing that companies internally evaluate the imminence of a reclassification about their rating and, from this, alter the composition of the capital structure so as to avoid causing a downgrade, or even to stimulate the occurrence of an upgrade, in their credit risk classification. Accordingly, the purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of trends in the credit rating reclassifications about decisions structure of capital of listed companies in Latin America. To verify the existence of this association were applied data belonging to all non-financial listed companies in Latin America, possessors of ratings issued by the three major international rating agencies (i.e. Stardand & Poor´s, Moody´s and Fitch) in January 2010. In this way, took part in the research all listed companies in six different Latin American countries, in the period 2001-2010. The main empirical results suggest that: (i) reclassifications of credit ratings have no informational content for the decisions of the capital structure of listed companies in Latin America, in other words, no association was observed between trends of reclassifications credit rating and decisions about the composition of the capital structure of listed companies in Latin America; (ii) between companies considered in the survey, those that were in worst levels of risk and the imminent reclassification of credit rating, tended to use more debt than other companies analyzed in this research. / Um rating de crédito de baixo (ou alto) risco possibilita uma redução (ou elevação) do spread pago pelo emissor na ocasião da emissão de títulos de crédito, bem como na captação de financiamentos e empréstimos bancários. Assim, o rating apresenta-se como um aspecto relevante nas decisões de estrutura de capitais de uma empresa, sobretudo pela possibilidade de influenciar nos seus níveis de dívidas. Todavia, apesar da importância atribuída pelos agentes de mercado e a existência de indícios empíricos do efeito do rating sobre a estrutura de capitais de uma empresa, os poucos estudos já realizados acerca das associações entre as tendências de reclassificações dos ratings de crédito e as decisões de estrutura de capitais de uma firma não têm abordado os mercados latino-americanos. Não são comuns nos mercados da América Latina estudos analisando se as empresas avaliam internamente a iminência de uma reclassificação do seu rating e, a partir disso, alteram a sua composição de estrutura de capitais de modo a evitar que ocorra um downgrade, ou mesmo para estimular a ocorrência de um upgrade, em sua classificação de risco de crédito. Nesse sentido, o objetivo desta pesquisa é analisar o impacto das tendências de reclassificações do rating de crédito sobre as decisões de estrutura de capitais de empresas listadas da América Latina. Para verificar a existência dessa associação foram empregados dados pertencentes a todas as empresas não-financeiras listadas da América Latina, possuidoras de ratings emitidos pelas três principais agências de ratings internacionais (i.e. Stardand & Poor´s, Moody´s e Fitch) em janeiro de 2010. Desse modo, fizeram parte da pesquisa todas as empresas listadas em seis diferentes países latino-americanos, no período 2001-2010. Os principais resultados empíricos obtidos sugerem que: (i) as reclassificações dos ratings de crédito não possuem conteúdo informacional para as decisões de estrutura de capitais das empresas listadas da América Latina, ou seja, não foi observada associação entre as tendências de reclassificações do ratings de crédito e as decisões sobre composição das estruturas de capitais das empresas listadas da América Latina; (ii) entre as empresas consideradas na pesquisa, aquelas que se encontravam em níveis piores de riscos e na iminência de reclassificações do rating de crédito, tenderam a utilizar mais dívidas do que as outras empresas analisadas na pesquisa.

This paper contributes to the literature by presenting a detailed summary of existing problems with credit rating agencies and proposing a model of a European Rating Agency that acts as a competitor and benchmark to the established credit rating agencies. European Rating Agency (ERA) as a new entrant will make a difference by increasing rating transparency and reputation cost for rating agencies at the same time. A vital point when developing the idea of an independent rating agency was the minimization of regulation changes. This will help shareholder to better orientate and understand the functionalities of the European Rating Agency which will make its establishment process easier. Reputation cost (capital) are assumed to be the building blocks that support the unique position of current rating agencies. ERA is modelled specifically to target this information and use the fragile concept of trust and reputation to the benefit of all stakeholder.

This thesis concerned with certain problems in the U.S. financial market during the financial crisis. In the theoretical part of this thesis, I deal with the formation of U.S. banking and regulation and supervision until its present form. In this part of the work are described in detail circumstances that lead to foundation of the Federal Reserve system, and also the origins of Great Depression. The practical part is focused on the analysis of the causes of the global financial crisis. Especially the U.S. real estate market, asset securitization and credit rating agencies. In the final part of this work are described in detail the measures taken by the U.S. government in the form of law "Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act".