Currency crises have become an essential part of one's economy life. The periodicity of currency crises and its implications towards the real economy is an issue which the international economics should bear in mind. The thesis which I am presenting tries to give an overview how the exchange rate regimes interact with the currency crises. Firstly, the Market Pressure Index (MPI), which is used for catching the crises, is introduced. Then after the introduction chapters I use gathered data to analyze the observed crises. The last chapter is there to give a summary about obtained knowledge. The most valuable information, regarding the currency crises, is that the stricter the monetary regime after the currency crises is the less of the output occurs. This is the main finding emerged from the pre and post analysis of monetary regimes. Another finding is that the loss of output is primarily connected with a shift from any pegged arrangement to a floating arrangement. The shifts which took place under the pegged arrangements completely do not seem to have an impact towards the real output. Finally, Real Exchange Effective Rate seems to be an element which connects all the studied crises. This opinion reflects the current research topic in international economics.

The subject of this diploma thesis is the corporate culture, its application and the possible influence caused by economy crises. Two companies from IKEA Group has been chosen, IKEA Hanim s.r.o. and IKEA Česká republika s.r.o. represented by Prague store IKEA Zličín. The related questionnaire has been created and used for mapping of the implementation and use of the corporate culture in these organizations. Different internal materials and interviews with employees has been analyzed and proceed. It has been shown that both companies are facing much higher pressure to achieve the result than before the outset of the economic crises. Also the contact with the management is insufficient in both organizations. The differencies has been discovered in the area of sharing the own opinion. In comparasion with the employees at the store the employees of IKEA Hanim s.r.o. feel that they can express freely. The employees of IKEA Hanim s.r.o. consider IKEA as a good employer. 42% of store employees do not agree with this statement.

The number of investor-state arbitration disputes has been on the rise since the mid 1990s. Their determinants are still not fully understood. This study empirically examines the effects of economic crises on investor-state arbitration claims, based on international investment agreements (IIAs). We use a unique dataset containing 961 investor-state arbitration claims covering 132 host (defendant) and 75 home (claimant) countries over the 1986-2017 period. We find that episodes of economic crises are positively and significantly associated with the number of investor-state arbitration cases and we uncover evidence that the type of economic crisis matters. In addition, the positive impact of economic crises on arbitration cases is inversely related to the rule of law in a host country. These results are consistent with the view that governments are prioritizing policy actions aiming at mitigating the negative impact of economic crises over compliance with their obligations in IIAs. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that besides strengthening the rule of law domestically, the IIA system should be reformed with a focus on avoiding a vicious circle, thus shortening the recovery period after economic crises. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

L’axe principal de la thèse est centré sur des approches non-linéaires modernes d’analyse des données économiques et financières, avec une attention particulière sur les cycles économiques et les crises financières. Un consensus dans la littérature statistique et financière s’est établie autour du fait que les variables économiques ont un comportement non-linéaire au cours des différentes phases du cycle économique. En tant que tel, les approches/modèles non-linéaires sont requis pour saisir les caractéristiques du mécanisme de génération des données intrinsèquement asymétriques, que les modèles linéaires sont incapables de reproduire.À cet égard, la thèse propose une nouvelle approche interdisciplinaire et ouverte à l’analyse des systèmes économiques et financiers. La thèse présente des approches robustes aux valeurs extrêmes et à la non-stationnarité, applicables à la fois pour des petits et de grands échantillons, aussi bien pour des séries temporelles économiques que financières. La thèse fournit des procédures dites étape par étape dans l’analyse des indicateurs économiques et financiers en intégrant des concepts basés sur la méthode de substitution de données, des ondelettes, espace incorporation de phase, la m´méthode retard vecteur variance (DVV) et des récurrences parcelles. La thèse met aussi en avant des méthodes transparentes d’identification, de datation des points de retournement et de l´évaluation des impacts des crises économiques et financières. En particulier, la thèse fournit également une procédure pour anticiper les crises futures et ses conséquences.L’étude montre que l’intégration de ces techniques dans l’apprentissage de la structure et des interactions au sein et entre les variables économiques et financières sera très utile dans l’élaboration de politiques de crises, car elle facilite le choix des méthodes de traitement appropriées, suggérées par les données.En outre, une nouvelle procédure pour tester la linéarité et la racine unitaire dans un cadre non-linéaire est proposé par l’introduction d’un nouveau modèle – le modèle MT-STAR – qui a des propriétés similaires au modèle ESTAR mais réduit les effets des problèmes d’identification et peut aussi représenter l’asymétrie dans le mécanisme d’ajustement vers l’équilibre. Les distributions asymptotiques du test de racine unitaire proposées sont non-standards et sont calculées. La puissance du test est évaluée par simulation et quelques illustrations empiriques sur les taux de change réel montrent son efficacité. Enfin, la thèse développe des modèles multi-variés Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive avec des variables exogènes (MSETARX) et présente une méthode d’estimation paramétrique. La modélisation des modèles MSETARX et des problèmes engendrés par son estimation sont brièvement examinés. / This thesis centers on introducing modern non-linear approaches for data analysis in economics and finance with special attention on business cycles and financial crisis. It is now well stated in the statistical and economic literature that major economic variables display non-linear behaviour over the different phases of the business cycle. As such, nonlinear approaches/models are required to capture the features of the data generating mechanism of inherently asymmetric realizations, since linear models are incapable of generating such behavior.In this respect, the thesis provides an interdisciplinary and open-minded approach to analyzing economic and financial systems in a novel way. The thesis presents approaches that are robust to extreme values, non-stationarity, applicable to both short and long data length, transparent and adaptive to any financial/economic time series. The thesis provides step-by-step procedures in analyzing economic/financial indicators by incorporating concepts based on surrogate data method, wavelets, phase space embedding, ’delay vector variance’ (DVV) method and recurrence plots. The thesis also centers on transparent ways of identifying, dating turning points, evaluating impact of economic and financial crisis. In particular, the thesis also provides a procedure on how to anticipate future crisis and the possible impact of such crisis. The thesis shows that the incorporation of these techniques in learning the structure and interactions within and between economic and financial variables will be very useful in policy-making, since it facilitates the selection of appropriate processing methods, suggested by the data itself.In addition, a novel procedure to test for linearity and unit root in a nonlinear framework is proposed by introducing a new model – the MT-STAR model – which has similar properties of the ESTAR model but reduces the effects of the identification problem and can also account for asymmetry in the adjustment mechanism towards equilibrium. The asymptotic distributions of the proposed unit root test is non-standard and is derived.The power of the test is evaluated through a simulation study and some empirical illustrations on real exchange rates show its accuracy. Finally, the thesis defines a multivariate Self–Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The modeling procedure for the MSETARX models and problems of estimation are briefly considered.

Research paper for the degree of Master of Management in Finance & Investment / With a globalised system, the credit crunch of 2007/2008 rippled through the global economy quickly and turned a global financial crisis into a global economic crisis, vulnerabilities in the economy surfaced when it hit and these still continue to plague South Africa today. According to the World Bank, South Africa’s real GDP growth estimates are 0.8% in 2016/2017 and 1.1% in 2017/2018. Increasing uncertainty in global financial markets and banking systems, sharp declines in commodity prices, subdued global trade, currency pressure, as well as domestic constraints such as a current account deficit, a negative inflation outlook and high levels of unemployment, lead to increased financial stress in South Africa making the country more vulnerable in the event of an adverse scenario. Clearly, being cognizant of determinants of financial stress in South Africa is of paramount importance to policy makers as it allows them to assess potential risks to financial system stability and to consider timely and appropriate counteractions while maintaining a financial system that is resilient to systemic shocks. (South African Reserve Bank Financial Stability Review, 2016) This study aims to construct a financial stress index using Principal Component Analysis to identify key determinants of financial stress in South Africa. Several variables that have been identified in standing literature as being able to capture certain symptoms of financial strain in emerging market economies are estimated then aggregated into an index using the principal component analysis method. The usefulness of the index in identifying past crises is then assessed, moreover its performance is contrasted against the financial stress index constructed by South African Reserve Bank as well as against a South African composite business cycle leading indicator. Finally, the ability of the index to predict economic activity is examined. / MT2017

Background: Crisis and crisis management is a research topic that since the 1980s has gotten increasing amounts of attention in research. A crisis refers to an event that may have severe effects on an organisation's survival, making it important to know how to prepare for them. Interest in research about crisis preparedness has been growing. However, literature tends to focus on crisis preparedness in an MNE (Multinational Enterprises) context, thus, leaving out SMEs (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises). Nonetheless, SMEs are a large and crucial part of the economy that may equally, if not more, be affected by crises. In SMEs, the leader has a significant impact on the strategic decisions in the business, making them a crucial part of the crisis preparedness process and an important aspect to study. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to explore what factors could influence the way a leader prioritises to work with crisis preparedness in SMEs. Further, this research aims to understand how those priorities affect the level of crisis preparedness in SMEs. Method:  This study was conducted as a qualitative exploratory research in the form of a cross-sectional multiple case study. The data was collected through twelve semi-structured in-depth interviews, where all the participants were active as leaders in SMEs. The data collected in the interviews was subsequently analysed through a thematic analysis approach. Conclusion: It was found that besides the previously found external factors of SMEs, crisis preparedness is also influenced by the leader’s attitude about crisis preparedness. This attitude, in turn, is primarily formed through the leader’s understanding of crises and their personality. It was further found that the type of industry could be a factor in crisis preparedness due to for example, differing amounts of rules and regulations. In conclusion, the thesis was able to connect much of what has been found in previous research while adding a focus on the leader and their attitude about crisis preparedness.

Este trabalho intenta tematizar a questão da crise através da prática de Plantão Psicológico, tendo como cenário o hospital geral universitário (HU) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Acompanhando pacientes e equipe de saúde do hospital, os psicólogos experienciaram muitas situações de crise, tais como aquelas expressas pelo gênero dramático. Suas experiências levaram a compreender tal prática por meio de uma analogia. Escolhe-se a tragédia grega como fio condutor para esta pesquisa, uma vez que este gênero literário do século V a. C. possui um caráter de transcendência histórica, trazendo em seu bojo a possibilidade de traduzir e desvelar aspectos da experiência humana nas situações críticas. Artisticamente, o drama se reporta a uma situação em que o protagonista encontra-se em uma encruzilhada do destino, submetido a uma circunstância de perda de liberdade por um advento imponderável e convocado a empunhar sua responsabilidade na direção do sentido de sua existência. A metodologia de pesquisa se assenta no olhar da fenomenologia existencial. Sendo assim, afasta-se de procedimentos ou instrumentais pré-definidos, partindo, como propõe M. Heidegger, do questionamento do ser. Elege-se a narrativa de atendimentos realizados por psicólogos plantonistas nos vários espaços do HU, apresentada através de diários de bordo, como matéria-prima para este interrogar e interpretar. Desvelou-se a crise como ruptura ocasionada por um acontecimento que irrompe na cotidianidade, levando à situação de alheamento e ocultamento de sentido pelo aniquilamento temporário da malha representacional que dá sustentação a existência. Estando lançado neste hiato, inaugura-se outra temporalidade que convoca à metaforização da crise, considerando-se o Plantão Psicológico como utensílio pertinente para possibilitar este trânsito / This present work intends to explore crisis phenomenon as a question through the Psychological Attendance practice, which scenario is the University General Hospital at the University of São Paulo. The psychologists experience many crisis situations such those expressed by drama theme, while accompanying hospital patients and health staff. Their experiences lead to comprehend such praxis by the means of an analogy. Greek tragedy is the guideline chosen for this research, because this literary style from the V b. C. century, by its historical transcendental characteristic, carries forward possibilities to translate and unveil relevant aspects of human experience when passing by critical situations. Artistically, drama conveys a situation where the protagonist finds himself in a destiny crossroads, under loss of freedom circumstances by an unexpected event, which convocates him to handle his own responsibility toward the sense of his existence. Existential phenomenology is the methodological path for this research. Departing from the questioning of being, as Heideggers proposal, it goes apart from predefined procedures. Psychologists attendances narratives at many hospital wards, as board diaries, are the main resource for the interrogation and interpretation

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / Thesis advisor: Christopher Baum / In this dissertation, I focus on macroeconomic and macroprudential policies. In Chapter 1, I study the effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools on bank risk. The findings show that although macroprudential policy tools can stabilize the financial system, under certain conditions, they might have perverse effects. In Chapter 2, I examine monetary aggregates, and show that once measured correctly, they can be useful in gauging the stance of monetary policy. In Chapter 3, by studying the deter- minants of sovereign debt crises, I aim at improving our understanding of sovereign debt distress, and also strengthening the toolkit for crisis prevention. Chapter 1: Following the 2007-2009 financial crisis, there has been an increase in the use of macroprudential policy tools – such as loan-to-value ratio caps and interbank exposure limits – to achieve financial stability. Existing research on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy has focused on country-level variables such as total credit growth and house price inflation. In “The Effectiveness of Macropruden- tial Policy on Bank Risk,” I study how the effectiveness of macroprudential policy varies across banks and policy tools. Using system GMM on bank-level data from 30 European countries for the time period between 2000 and 2014, I document that stricter regulation in the form of exposure limitations tends to decrease banks’ risk levels whereas capital-based tools tend to induce higher risk-taking. After a policy tightening, loan loss provisions and non-performing loans ratios of banks suffering losses can increase substantially, up to five percentage points, while they are likely to decrease for profitable banks. Constraining activities by stricter regulation can lead to a search for yield. Therefore, policy designers should pay particular attention to the increase in risk-taking following policy tightening, especially by banks suffering losses. Chapter 2: It is crucial for policymakers to successfully gauge the stance of mon- etary policy and understand the mechanisms through which it affects the economy. Conventional models focus on interest rates alone, and omit monetary aggregates from policy discussions. In “Do Monetary Aggregates Belong in a Monetary Model? Evidence from the UK,” I examine whether augmenting the measure of monetary policy with monetary aggregates helps in drawing more robust links between policy and economic fluctuations. After constructing the Divisia money index for the United Kingdom, I employ structural vector autoregression to identify two different episodes of UK monetary policy regimes. Inclusion of this (correct) measure of the quantity of money and disentangling money supply from money demand remedy the price and liquidity puzzles which frequently appear in the vector autoregression literature. The results point to the informational content embedded in monetary aggregates, and suggest that monetary aggregates should be taken into account while evaluating monetary policy. Chapter 3: In assessing debt sustainability for advanced and emerging markets, the IMF’s Market Access Countries’ Debt Sustainability Analysis (MAC DSA) com- pares the levels of debt and gross financing needs (GFNs) against benchmarks sepa- rately derived from the noise-to-signal approach. In “Determinants of Sovereign Debt Crises,” I identify the main factors that contribute to sovereign debt crises. I take into account a broad range of debt distress drivers, including debt levels and gross fi- nancing needs, but also debt composition, macroeconomic fundamentals, and country characteristics such as whether the country is a small state or member of a currency union. By using the estimation results, I first derive an indicative cutoff probability of debt distress level. Then, I calculate the corresponding thresholds for debt variables, above which countries are predicted to experience an episode of debt distress. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2018. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

Thesis advisor: Jérôme Taillard / This paper studies the dynamics between levels of M&A activity (average transaction value and number of deals) and crises in seven Latin American countries from the period between 1990 through 2007. Two hypotheses are tested using regression analysis: (1) whether the level of M&A activity increases during crises due to the “bargain hypothesis,” due to the low valuation of target companies, or (2) whether M&A activity decreases due to the financial distress of potential buyers (“financing constraints” hypothesis) or the financial distress of potential targets (“loss of confidence” hypothesis). Analyses at the country and industry level show that the average transaction value of M&A deals decreases with every crisis. Support for the second hypothesis is found within the Manufacturing, Energy and Utilities industry, in which the number of deals increases. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2013. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

O presente estudo procurou avaliar o grau de envolvimento dos pais, das classes sociais média-alta e alta na educação escolar dos filhos. Para isso, algumas escolas que atendem a esse público foram procuradas com a solicitação da permissão de conversar com algumas das famílias de seus alunos. A seleção das escolas particulares da cidade de São Paulo foi feita a partir dos resultados de seus alunos no exame do ENEM (Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio): escolheu-se uma escola com boa colocação (entre as dez primeiras), uma com colocação média (entre as 60 primeiras) e uma que não obteve bons resultados. O instrumento para a coleta de dados foi a entrevista semi-estruturada com casais de pais ou apenas com a mãe. Foram realizadas 13 entrevistas, totalizando 21 entrevistados. A análise dos resultados revelou que esses pais e mães, contrariando estereótipos e/ou crenças comuns a respeito do envolvimento dos pais na vida escolar dos filhos, mostraram-se muito envolvidos com a escolaridade dos filhos e afirmaram não delegar à escola tarefas como a formação de valores e o estímulo à disciplina. A ideia de diferentes estudiosos de que a família vive uma crise de valores e de autoridade e que delega à escola tarefas que não se sente capaz de realizar não foi corroborada neste estudo. Em face dos resultados, foram sugeridos alguns caminhos para que a escola possa desenvolver uma parceria efetiva com as famílias de seus alunos: estabelecer relações simétricas e de corresponsabilidade com os pais e oferecer a eles espaços de debate e reflexão sobre questões que vivenciam no dia-a-dia com seus filhos. / This study aimed to assess the degree of involvement of both high middle-class and upper class families in their children\'s education. The selection of private schools in São Paulo, SP, was based on students\' performance at ENEM (National High School Standardized Examination). Three kinds of schools were chosen: one ranking among the top ten first, one from the sixty top first, and one whose performance was below average. A semi-structured interview was used as the instrument for the collection of data. Thirteen interviews with couples or with just the mother were carried out, totaling 21 interviewees. The analysis of the results shows that those parents, contradicting stereotypes and widespread beliefs about parent involvement in their children\'s learning process, are in fact deeply involved, and do not delegate the school to teach students such things as moral values and discipline. The idea shared by various scholars that families are at present undergoing both a value and an authority crisis and that they expect their children\'s school to do what they feel unable to do has not been corroborated by this study. In face of the results obtained, some suggestions have been put forward on how the school might develop an effective partnership with students\' families: establishing symmetric and coresponsible relationships with parents and offering them an opportunity to stir up debate and reflection on the issues they experience with their children on an everyday basis.