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Cette thèse étudie la dynamique du marché des credit default swaps (CDS), instruments financiers de transfert du risque du crédit, et de ses relations avec les autres marchés, en particulier durant les épisodes de crise. Le marché des CDS a connu un développement vigoureux depuis son émergence, au milieu des années 90. Les volumes de contrats de CDS échangés ont augmenté à un rythme rapide, ce marché a ainsi connu le développement le plus rapide parmi les dérivés négociés de gré-à-gré (over-the-counter – OTC). Les participants de marché, principalement les grandes banques, ont su tirer parti des possibilités offertes par les outils de transfert de risque qui leur ont permis tout d'abord, de disposer d'instruments novateurs de protection contre le risque de crédit, mais aussi d'assurer l'expansion de leur activité d'intermédiation du crédit tout en optimisant les exigences en capital. Bien que le fonctionnement du marché des CDS ait connu une amélioration depuis le début des années 2000, plusieurs éléments mettent en doute l'hypothèse d'un marché efficient et résilient aux périodes de crise. A travers cinq articles empiriques, cette thèse se penche sur deux épisodes de crises durant lesquels le fonctionnement de ce marché a pu être perturbé : d'une part la crise de mai 2005, provoquée par la dégradation en catégorie spéculative de deux entreprises américaines majeures, General Motors et Ford, par les principales agences de notation ; d'autre part la crise financière ayant débuté en 2007 et qui a évolué en crise de la dette souveraine dans le cas des Etats européens à partir de fin 2009. L'étude de ces deux phases de crise montre que le développement du marché des CDS a participé à modifier les relations entre marchés, les investisseurs ayant fait des primes de CDS une source d'information privilégiée pour évaluer le risque de crédit. En effet, les travaux empiriques menés tout au long de la thèse concluent que ce marché est devenu progressivement le lieu où tendait à se dérouler le processus de découverte des prix. Ces travaux mettent également en lumière les vulnérabilités du marché des CDS, renforcées par des effets de contagion déjà à l'œuvre lors de l'épisode de crise de 2005, et incitent à une meilleure régulation des outils de transfert du risque de crédit et, d'une manière plus générale, des dérivés OTC. / This thesis studies the dynamics of the market in credit default swaps (CDS), which are credit risk transfer instruments, and the relationships between the CDS market and other markets, particularly during crisis periods. The CDS market has seen a boom since its emergence, in the mid-90s, and volumes of CDS contracts have increased at a rapid pace. Its growth has thus been the strongest among over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. Market participants, mainly the major banks, have taken advantage of the opportunities created by credit transfer instruments, which have offered new ways to hedge against credit risk and also contributed to the expansion of their credit intermediation activity, while optimising capital requirements. Despite the improvement of the CDS market's functioning since the early 2000s, several facts call the assumption of an efficient market that is resilient to crisis periods into question. Through five empirical articles, this thesis focuses on two crisis periods which during which the functioning of this market was affected: first, the General Motors and Ford crisis in 2005 following the downgrading of the credit ratings of these two flagship companies to speculative grade; and second, the financial crisis of 2007-2009 which turned into a sovereign debt crisis in the case of European countries from end-2009 onwards. The study of these two crisis periods shows that the growth of the CDS market has contributed to a change in the relationships between markets, as investors tend to regard CDS premia as a prime source of information to assess credit risk. Indeed, the empirical research conducted throughout the thesis concludes that this has gradually become the place where the price discovery process tends to occur. This work highlights the vulnerabilities of the CDS market, reinforced by the contagion effects at work during the 2005 crisis episode, and points to the need for better regulation of credit risk transfer instruments and, more broadly, of OTC derivatives.

Made available in DSpace on 2008-05-13T13:48:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2007-05-04 / The objective of this paper is to analyze the foreign reserves accumulation among countries such Brazil that builds up international reserves to be protected from externai crises as well as to diminish such probability. We desire to analyze also the determination of optimal levei of reserves. We will approach brief historical of the literature of reserves holdings. In the study of Brazil, we will discuss the optimal levei of Brazilian international reserves using buffer stock model, with temporaries series approach, differing from previous cross-section studies. / O objetivo deste trabalho analisar acumulação de reservas internacionais por parte de países como Brasil, que acumulam reservas na tentativa de se proteger de crises externas bem como diminuir tal probabilidade. Desejamos analisar determinação do nível ótimo de reservas. Apresentaremos um breve histórico da literatura sobre acumulação de reservas. No estudo do Brasil, discutiremos nível ótimo de reservas internacionais brasileiras usando modelo de buffer stock, partir de uma abordagem de séries temporais, diferindo de trabalhos anteriores usando dados cross-section.

Text in German / The impulse for this research comes from the present crisis of the penitential practice within the Roman Catholic communities of Germany, where notwithstanding all pastoral efforts the practice of sacramental confession has dropped to almost nothing. The procedure adopted is based on the method of R. Zerfass. 1" step: An investigation on the present practice has been done with a previous research: 2nd step: The present research, in the first chapter deals with the New Testament origins of penance and the historical development up to the present time. An essential result attained is the insight that conversion (Mk 1,14 f.) does not consist of a message of doom but urges the audience to pursue the salvation of the reign of God. As a consequence the believer experiences an ethic motivation whereby he takes as orientation the rules of the kingdom of God. 3rd step: The sociological situation of the target group is the topic of chapter two. The study is based on the work of G. Schulze. The central point made by his analysis is the affirmation that people in contemporary society are basically experience orientated and that all opportunities and offers are assessed according to their experiential value. Because of the confusing oversupply of experiences and the avoidance of disappointments caused by unfulfilled expectations homogeneous groups (milieus) emerge. People, in search of experience orient themselves according to these experiences and shape them in their turn. In the realm (market) of experiences which cannot be controlled supply and demand come together. The supplier who do not follow the laws of the market is ousted because of failing to supply what is demanded. 4th step: In chapter 3 a practical theological theory is developed that present penitential crises is routed in a crises of faith. For this reason an updated pastoral approach to conversion needs to take as its starting point the liberation message of Jesus and at the same time to take into consideration the rules that govern the market, the contemporary segmentation of the milieu included. The final step will consist in a pastoral concretisation / Philosophy, Practical and Systematic Theology / D.Th. (Practical Theology)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This dissertation studies the strategies of an organization under a crisis situation in the construction of a journalistic occurrence in a mediatized society. There are constant challenges to be overcome by organizations, visibility processes are constantly being changed by new technologies advent, changes in the media s role and the appropriation of their approaches by various social fields on their daily practices. This are just some changes which require reflection about crisis management strategies adopted until nowadays. The organizational crises present themselves as very explored occurrences by the media. These events are characterized by the disruption of everyday s life, mainly by its unpredictability, that's the fact that arouses wide interest in the media field. With the method of content analysis (Bardin, 1977) we adopted as our empirical object the crisis faced by Air France with the tragedy of Flight 447, analyzing news in Folha de São Paulo and Le Monde s newspapers. Thus, we persue to study the impact of this crisis in French and Brazilian media, to verify the sources used by the media in the occurrence construction, as well as the position given to the organization in the news published, identifying the organization's strategies to mitigate the incident, and understanding the strategic nature of the interface press -company in crisis situations in news production. So, as a result of this research, we concluded that in this crisis the organization has adopted and maintained a concise and objective position in addition to technical measures taken to circumvent the situation. This triggered another kind of relationship with the media, where what was witnessed was not an Air France's image crisis, but on the other hand, the occurrence "447" was explored as a tragedy. So, what stands out in this scenario is that between the crisis and the news, the news prevailed. / Esta dissertação estuda as estratégias de uma organização em situação de crise na construção do acontecimento jornalístico em uma sociedade midiatizada. São constantes os desafios a serem superados pelas organizações. Os processos de visibilidade foram e continuam sendo alterados pelo advento de novas tecnologias, a transformação do papel da mídia na sociedade atual e a apropriação de suas lógicas pelos diversos campos sociais em suas práticas cotidianas são apenas algumas mudanças que demandam questionar e refletir sobre estratégias de gestão de crises adotadas até hoje. As crises organizacionais se apresentam como acontecimentos jornalísticos bastante explorados pelos veículos de comunicação. Esses acontecimentos se caracterizam pela ruptura do cotidiano, sendo marcados principalmente pelo seu caráter de imprevisibilidade e pelo amplo interesse que desperta no campo midiático. A partir do método da análise de conteúdo (BARDIN, 1977), adota-se como objeto empírico a crise enfrentada pela Air France com a queda do voo AF 447 nos jornais A Folha de São Paulo e Le Monde. Assim, busca-se analisar a repercussão da crise em questão na mídia impressa brasileira e francesa, verificar quais as fontes utilizadas pela mídia na construção do acontecimento, bem como a posição dada à organização nas notícias publicadas sobre esta crise, identificar as estratégias da organização para amenizar o ocorrido e compreender o caráter estratégico da interface empresa-imprensa em situações de crise no processo de construção do acontecimento. Dessa forma, como resultado da pesquisa, conclui-se que nesta crise a organização adotou e manteve um posicionamento conciso e objetivo, além de ter tomado as medidas técnicas cabíveis para contornar a situação. Esse fato desencadeou um outro tipo de relacionamento da mídia para com a empresa, no qual o que se presenciou não foi uma crise de imagem da Air France, ou seja, no acontecimento AF 447 , a característica mais explorada foi a da tragédia. Sendo assim, o que se destaca nesse cenário é que, entre a crise e a notícia, prevaleceu a notícia.

The goal of this dissertation is to present an investigation of the theoretical and empirical relationship between financial integration, capital flows and the exchange rate, and between financial integration, capital flows and financial crises for developing countries. The theoretical literature analysis developed in Chapter 1 clarifies that there is no consensus regarding the hypothesis that financial integration and capital flows stimulate economic growth and consumption smoothing, also showing that there are channels through which they can lead to financial crises and appreciation of the exchange rate. Chapter 2 develops an econometric investigation regarding the relationship between financial integration, capital flows and the exchange rate, for a sample of 63 developing countries. The econometric results do not suggest that there is a statistically significant relationship between financial integration and exchange rate, and, therefore, they do not support the hypothesis that financial integration causes currency appreciation. Besides, the results suggest that capital flows cause appreciation of the exchange rate, and there are evidences that the effect of the capital flows over the exchange rate depends on the level of financial development, which means that the effect of appreciation is gradually attenuated by higher levels of financial development. Chapter 3 develops an econometric investigation regarding the relationship between financial integration, capital flows and financial crises, for a sample of 53 developing countries. The econometric results suggest that financial integration and capital flows do not raise the probability of financial crises. / O objetivo desta dissertação é realizar uma investigação teórica e empírica acerca da relação entre integração financeira, fluxos de capitais e taxa de câmbio, e entre integração financeira, fluxos de capitais e crises financeiras para países em desenvolvimento. A análise da literatura teórica, realizada no Capítulo 1, explicita que não existe consenso quanto à hipótese de que a integração financeira e os fluxos de capitais estimulam o crescimento econômico e a suavização do consumo, mostrando que existem canais por meio dos quais a integração financeira e os fluxos de capitais podem levar a crises financeiras e à apreciação cambial. No Capítulo 2, é feita uma investigação econométrica acerca das relações entre integração financeira, fluxos de capitais e taxa de câmbio, para uma amostra de 63 países em desenvolvimento. Os resultados econométricos não sugerem que há uma relação estatisticamente significativa entre integração financeira e taxa de câmbio e, portanto, não corroboram a hipótese de que a integração financeira cause apreciação cambial. Além disso, os resultados sugerem que os fluxos de capitais causam apreciação cambial, e há evidências de que o efeito dos fluxos de capitais sobre a taxa de câmbio real efetiva dependem do nível de desenvolvimento financeiro, sugerindo que o efeito de apreciação da taxa de câmbio real efetiva é gradativamente atenuado ou revertido à medida que os países apresentam níveis mais elevados de desenvolvimento financeiro. No Capítulo 3 é feita uma investigação econométrica acerca das relações entre integração financeira, fluxos de capitais e crises financeiras, para uma amostra de 53 países em desenvolvimento. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que a integração financeira e os fluxos de capitais não aumentam a probabilidade de crises financeiras. / Mestre em Economia

Cette thèse a pour objet de revisiter, à la lumière de données financières historiques inédites, certains résultats de la littérature en histoire économique concernant la propagation de la Grande Dépression vers l’Europe, et plus particulièrement vers la France. Nous cherchons notamment à étudier les différents canaux de transmission à l’échelle internationale -boursiers, bancaires et monétaires- de cette crise et évaluons le rôle respectif qu’ils ont pu exercer dans la propagation de cette crise aux marchés financiers français. Les différentes contributions, que nous proposons dans cette thèse, sont avant tout empiriques et s’appuient sur un travail important effectué en amont de collecte et de traitement de données financières originales, provenant principalement des archives de la Bourse de Paris.Plusieurs résultats importants émergent de notre travail. Notre analyse sur les marchés boursiers montre, tout d’abord, que le krach boursier américain de 1929 a eu un faible impact sur la bourse de Paris, De même, le système bancaire français a, dans son ensemble, plutôt bien résisté à la crise bancaire du début des années 1930, en raison notamment de la forte spécialisation qui le caractérisait à cette époque. Enfin, nous montrons que le niveau d’intégration financière entre les États-Unis, la France et la Belgique, à travers l’étude des relations bilatérales entre les marchés actions de ces trois pays, a eu tendance à se renforcer avec l’adoption par ces pays du système de l’étalon "de change" or. Cette forte intégration financière, couplée aux contraintes en matière de politique économique liées à ce système monétaire, pourraient ainsi expliquer comment la Grande Dépression s’est propagée en Europe et pourquoi la crise économique s’est prolongée dans des pays comme la France ou la Belgique, comparativement à d’autres grandes économies. / The aim of this thesis is to shed new light on how the Great Depression spread to Europe, and more particularly to France by relying on new historical financial data compiled from original source documents. In particular, we analyze the different transmission channels - stock markets, banking sector and international monetary system - of this crisis, in order to assess the respective role they have played in the impact of this crisis on French financial markets. We contribute empirically to this larger literature by providing evidence based on original historical data hand-collected from the archives of the Paris Stock Exchange.Several important results emerge from our work. Our analysis based on the stock markets shows, first, that the American stock market crash of 1929 had a low impact on the Paris stock exchange. Similarly, the French banking system, as a whole, remained quite resilient to the banking crisis of the beginning of the 1930s, mainly due to its strong specialization of the sector at that time. Finally, we show that the level of financial integration between the United States, France and Belgium - proxied by bilateral relationships between their equity markets - has tended to increase with the adoption by these countries of the Gold Exchange Standard. This high financial integration, coupled with economic policies constrained by the exchange rate regime, could explain how the Great Depression spread to Europe and why the economic crisis lasted longer in countries such as France or Belgium, compared to other major economies

Les crises monétaires sont les premières crises financières de l'histoire économique. Elles se traduisent par l'élimination ou la substitution des monnaies nationales. L'objectif de cette thèse est de poser les fondements théoriques et empiriques des crises monétaires, mais également de proposer un cadre de prévention de ce type de crise qui sévit en zone euro depuis 2008. Les débats économiques et politiques actuels autour des questions de désintégration monétaire témoignent de la persistance et de l'ampleur de la crise, où la légitimité et la souveraineté de la monnaie unique est menacée à moyen long terme. Les divers plans de sauvetage et les politiques d'austérité dans les pays-membres en difficulté ne sont que les conséquences et les coûts directs d'une telle crise. Ces derniers doivent interpeller les autorités de supervision à une plus grande vigilance, ainsi qu'à une politique de prévention plus avisée. L'objectif de cette thèse est double : dans une première partie, nous analysons le concept, les fondements historiques et théoriques des crises monétaires, puis dressons une typologie de celles-ci. Dans une seconde partie, nous apportons une contribution empirique relative aux déterminants des crises monétaires en zone euro et proposons un outil de prévention des crises monétaires, grâce à la mise en place d'un système d'alerte avancée (Early Warning System), par l'approche économétrique de type logit multinomial. Pour ce faire, la détection et la mesure des mésalignements des taux de change réels à l'intérieur de la zone euro est cruciale, puisqu'il constitue l'indicateur premier des crises monétaires. L'estimation des taux de change d'équilibre permettent ainsi d'apprécier la sur ou sous-évaluation des monnaies, indispensable à la mise en place d'un système d'alerte avancée, à des fins de prévention des crises monétaires. / Monetary crises are the first financial crises in economic history, which result in the elimination or substitution of national currencies. The aim of this thesis is to study the theoretical and empirical foundations of monetary crises. Furthermore, a framework for the prevention of such crises, raging in the Euro zone since 2008, is provided. The current economic and political debates about this issue reflect the persistence and the extent of this crisis, in which the Euro's legitimacy and sovereignty is threatened in the medium term. The various rescue plans and austerity policies in troubled member states are direct consequences and costs of this crisis. Consequently, supervisory authorities need to be more vigilant in strengthening their prevention policy. The purpose of this thesis is twofold: in the first part, we analyze the concept, the historical and theoretical foundations of monetary crises, and then develop a typology of them. In the second part, we provide an empirical contribution on the determinants of monetary crises in the euro area and propose a tool for preventing currency crises by setting up an Early Warning System, through the econometric approach of the multinomial logit model. As the primary indicator of monetary crises, the detection and measurement of real exchange rate misalignments within the euro area is decisive. The equilibrium exchange rates estimation allows the assessment of currency over- or undervaluation, which is essential for the implementation of an early warning system

Esta pesquisa investiga os fatores de política doméstica que motivam os Estados a delegar determinados temas a organizações internacionais. Com base na abordagem de principal-agente aplicada à delegação internacional, o estudo de caso sustenta que a dinâmica da política doméstica norte-americana foi um determinante importante da delegação da crise da dívida dos anos 80 para o Fundo Monetário Internacional. A hipótese se baseia no argumento teórico segundo o qual a delegação de um tema para uma organização internacional oferece ao ator que delega (em geral o Poder Executivo) uma oportunidade de aumentar sua influência sobre aquele tema em detrimento dos outros atores políticos domésticos. Nesta visão, a delegação pode aumentar a influência do Poder Executivo ao deslocar o poder de agenda sobre o tema para a organização internacional, reduzir o número de pontos de decisão doméstica, criar assimetrias de informação e prover fontes adicionais de legitimidade para as posições do Executivo. Quanto mais agudo for o conflito doméstico sobre um tema, maior será o incentivo para o Poder Executivo delegá-lo a uma organização internacional. Este estudo sustenta que a crise da dívida dos anos 80 foi essencialmente uma crise bancária, e como tal poderia ter sido tratada exclusivamente no nível doméstico norte-americano. A pesquisa apresenta evidências de que, ao enquadrar a crise como um problema de política internacional e delegá-la ao FMI, o Departamento do Tesouro dos EUA aumentou seu controle sobre o tema e reduziu a influência do Congresso, cujas visões e prioridades eram diferentes das do governo. O Executivo norte-americano, a despeito da desconfiança que inicialmente nutria com relação às instituições financeiras multilaterais, decidiu delegar o gerenciamento da crise para o FMI porque suas preferências estavam mais alinhadas com as preferências do Fundo do que com as preferências do Congresso e, portanto, as perdas de agências eram pequenas em comparação com o ganho obtido por impedir o Congresso de adquirir um papel ativo sobre a questão. / This research examines the domestic factors that contribute to certain political issues being delegated by states to international organizations. Based upon principal-agent theory, the case study argues that American domestic politics played a major role in the delegation of the 1980s debt crisis of developing countries to the International Monetary Fund. The hypothesis is based on the theoretical argument that delegation of an issue to an international organization offers the delegating actor (usually the executive branch) an opportunity to increase its influence on that issue vis-à-vis other domestic political actors. As such, delegating an issue to an international organization can increase the influence of the executive branch by shifting control of the agenda on the issue in favor of the delegating actor, decreasing the number of domestic decision points, creating information asymmetries and providing additional sources of legitimacy for the positions of the executive. The more intense the domestic conflict on an issue, the bigger the incentive for the executive branch to delegate the issue to an international organization. This study contends that the LDC debt crisis of the 1980s was essentially a banking crisis, and that as such could have been handled domestically by the US government. The research provides evidence that, by framing the crisis as an international problem and delegating it to the IMF, the US Department of the Treasury increased its control of the issue and reduced the influence of Congress, whose views and priorities were different from those of the Administration. The US Treasury, despite its initial mistrust of international financial institutions, chose to delegate the management of the crisis to the IMF because US Treasury preferences were more aligned with the preferences of the Fund than with the preferences of Congress, and thus agency losses were small in comparison with what was gained by preventing Congress from having an active role on the issue.

This study focus on decision makers in Swedish foreign and security politics with a special focus on two national crises. The crises that have been chosen for this study are the submarine U17 crisis and the shipwreck of the passenger ferry Estonia. The first crisis occurred in the fall of 1981 when the Swedish government accused the Soviet for violating Swedish territory with a Soviet submarine. The second crisis occurred in the fall of 1994 when Estonia, with over 900 people, ended up in a storm and the result of the shipwreck was that only 137 people were rescued. The aims of the study are to analysis the Swedish crises preparedness and in the future develop and make it more effective. The thesis employs the following research questions to answer the purpose: - How did the actors that were responsibility for the Swedish crises preparedness act when they found out about U137 and the shipwreck of Estonia to bother the best outcome? - How did the final results of the crises preparedness in U137 and shipwreck of Estonia actually came out? The method of the study is a type of an appraisal method that explains how you could evaluate a political decision. The results that I found in points that it is necessary to do more research in the subject area. None of the crises were handled very effective in crises preparedness way and in the future more coordination and collaboration with different public authority and private organisations is needed to meet the threat and the obstacles that a society today stands in front of.