Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

Inom finansiell ekonomi finns en seglivad teori om att utdelningsändringar innehåller information om framtida ekonomiska resultat. Aktiemarknaden reagerar i enlighet med teorin på så vis att aktiekursen stiger när utdelningen höjs, och tvärtom, vilket har dokumenterats i ett flertal studier. Bakom aktiemarknadens reaktion på den ändrade utdelningen borde det finnas ett positivt samband mellan utdelningsändringar och framtida ekonomiska resultat. Problemet är att förekomsten av ett sådant samband är högst tveksam; tidigare empiriska studier har trots flerfaldiga försök inte funnit övertygande argument för förekomsten av ett samband mellan utdelningsändringar och framtida ekonomiska resultat. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka om det finns ett positiv samband mellan utdelningsändringar och framtida resultat och lönsamhet. Det empiriska underlaget är företag på Nasdaq Stockholm under perioden 1999–2018. Sambandet eftersöks med hjälp av en regressionsmodell i vilken vi kontrollerar för det icke-linjära beteendeet hos resultat och lönsamhet. Vi finner ett par statistiskt signifikanta resultat som påvisar samband mellan sänkta utdelningar och framtida resultat och lönsamhet; dessa är dock så pass små att de saknar ekonomisk relevans. Vårt resultat är således i linje med tidigare empiriska studier och stödjer därmed inte teori om utdelningssignalering. / Within the area of corporate finance, there exists a persistent theory that revolves around the idea that changes in terms of corporate dividend may yield information regarding future financial results. The stock market is known to fluctuate in accordance with this theory by ways of indicating increased share prices in close correspondence to increased dividend, and vice versa, which has also been documented in several previous studies. This relation between the stock market’s reaction to the change in dividend should by all accounts point to a positive correlation between dividend changes and future financial results. Yet, this relation has to this point been proved to be highly doubtful. Previous empirical studies have not been able to find any convincing arguments that such a relationship exists. The purpose of this essay is to investigate if there in fact exists a relationship between dividend changes and future earnings and profitability. The empirical data for this study consists of the companies listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm during the period of 1999 to 2018. This proposed relationship has been investigated by the use of a regression model, in which we have examined the known non-linear behaviour of earnings and profitability. By this method we have found a few results of statistical significance that do seem to indicate a relation, between lowered dividend and future financial outcomes. However, while still statistically significant, these results are not economically significant. Our results are therefore considered to be in line with previous research and does not offer any further support for the proposed theory of the dividend signaling hypothesis.

Fair value accounting for investment property has been mandatory in the EU since the adoption of IFRS 13 and has been both heavily criticized and praised. Previous research suggests that there are some inherent issues with fair value accounting for investment property, such as lacking reliability and persistence of reported unrealized earnings. There is also evidence of unrealized earnings influencing dividends and share price development related to fair value accounting in a procyclical manner. The purpose of this study is to enhance knowledge about whether fair value accounting in listed Nordic investment property companies causes procyclical effects on dividend payout and stock market behaviour. To fulfil this purpose, a quantitative analysis of financial reports and share prices of listed Nordic investment property companies was conducted. This study confirms that fair value accounting has a strong influence on dividends and share price development.

Preparing for the implementation of any new tax is a mammoth task. This mammoth task was evident when the National Treasury, SARS, companies, professional bodies, industry bodies and advisory organisations alike were preparing for the introduction of the new dividend tax in South Africa. The preparations included extensive consultations, sharing of information and providing guidance in newsletters, journals, guidance notes, websites, blogs, magazines, news papers and the like. Companies, Regulated Intermediaries and shareholders do not only have to be informed of the legislative changes, they need to be informed about the when, what and how of the impact of the tax and about the preparation needed for the implementation of dividends tax. Several common themes were identified that are critical to the successful implementation of dividends tax. These themes include communication between the business community and the regulators, as well as communication within the organisations. Involvement in and by the industry bodies has also been identified as critical to the successful implementation of dividends tax, while the timely preparation and communication of the regulatory reporting requirements is essential to the process. Within organisations, centralised oversight enables the coordinated preparation and implementation of the new tax. AFRIKAANS : Die voorbereidings vir die implementasie van enige nuwe belasting is 'n reuse taak. Die omvang van hierdie taak het duidelik geword toe die Nasionale Tesourie, die Suid Afrikaanse Inkomstediens, maatskappye, professionele liggame, industrie-organisasies, ensomeer voorbereidings moes tref vir die implementasie van dividend belasting. Die voorbereidings het konsultasie met lede, die deel van inligting en die voorsiening van leiding in nuusbriewe, joernale, webtuistes, tydskrifte en koerante ingesluit. Maatskappye, gereguleerde tussengangers en aandeelhouers moes nie net ingelig word oor die veranderinge in die wetgewing nie, hulle moet ook ingelig word aangaande die wanneer, wat en hoe van die impak van die belasting en die voorbereidings vir die implementasie van dividend belasting. Verskeie gemeenskaplike temas wat krities is tot die suksesvolle implementering van dividend belasting is geidentifiseer. Hierdie faktore sluit in kommunikasie tussen die organisasies, die besigheids samelewing en die reguleerders, asook interne kommunikasie binne die organisasies. Betrokkenheid in en by die industrieorganisasies is ook geidentifiseer as krities tot die suksesvolle implementering van dividend belasting, terwyl die tydige voorbereiding en kommunikasie deur die reguleerders en die kommunikasie van die rapporterings vereistes van die reguleerders essensieel is tot die proses. Sentrale interne oorsig binne organisasies maak die gekoordineerde voorbereidings vir die implementasie van dividend belasting moontlik. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Taxation / unrestricted

From all over the globe the inequality between the rich and the poor is a topic that is debated politically and socially. Wealth tax is often mentioned as an easy solution to reduce this inequality effectively. Even in South Africa cries for a wealth tax have been heard following Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu’s comments that such a tax can help reduce the effect of past injustices. The imposition of a wealth tax has various advantages and disadvantages that are strongly debated by the proponents and opponents of the tax. The impact of these advantages and disadvantages has however not been measured and quantified up to date. Although the disadvantages seem to outweigh the advantages, it seems that there is some scope for a wealth tax to be politically motivated. The dawning of the modern era has however changed the landscape for tax policies. Global mobility has resulted in individuals being able to choose where they work, live and invest. Taxes have been proved to be a factor that influences these decisions of individuals on where to live and invest. It is therefore becoming increasingly important to have tax policies that are competitive in comparison to peer countries. This study focused on determining how competitive South Africa’s tax policies are, relating to wealthy individuals, compared to the equivalent taxes in other African countries with similar sized economies. The study consists of qualitative, non-empirical research performed in the form of a literature review. The study’s finding is that South Africa has more types of taxes imposed on wealthy individuals than any other of the sampled countries. In addition, the taxes imposed are more often than not substantially higher than the equivalent charged by its peers. This could have a detrimental effect when investors start to realise that they could optimise the resources available to them by choosing not to work and live in South Africa, but would rather select one of its neighbouring countries. Not only will potential new investors be discouraged from investing, but the question also arises at which point South African residents will start to seek their fortune elsewhere. Based on these findings, it seems that there is no scope for imposing yet another wealth tax in South Africa at present. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / lmchunu2014 / Taxation / unrestricted

Opaqueness is inherent to financial institutions but contributes to the fragility of the banking system. The archetypal assets held by banks, loans, have a value that cannot be properly communicated outside of a banking relationship (Sharpe 1990; Rajan 1992). Because they are relationship specific and raise adverse selection concerns, these assets are illiquid (Diamond and Rajan 2001). However, these assets are financed with liquid deposits; uncertainty about their value can cause depositors to withdraw their funds and banks to topple (Calomiris and Kahn 1991; Chen 1999). Additionally, the combination of opaqueness and leverage creates moral hazard incentives, exacerbated by government guarantees, as well as other agency conflicts that are detrimental to stability (Jensen and Meckling 1976).This dissertation presents three original contributions on the consequences of bank opaqueness. The first contribution concerns financial analysts. We show that, unlike in other industries, the most talented sell-side analysts are no more likely than their peers to issue recommendation revisions that influence bank stock prices. However, star analysts appear to maintain influence by uncovering firm-specific bad news that induces sharp negative revaluations of bank stock prices. In the second contribution, we find that the persistence of bank dividend policies increases with agency conflicts between shareholders and managers and decreases in the presence of large institutional shareholders who have an incentive to monitor banks and to mitigate agency conflicts. Our third contribution assesses the competitive distortions in bond markets since the recent reforms of the European Union bank safety net. We find that nationalized systemic banks, and those that benefit from high bailout expectations, do not benefit from funding advantages compared to their peers. Our findings also suggest that bailout expectations for these banks have diminished, consistent with new regulatory frameworks enacted after the financial crisis being effective.Overall, our findings suggest that opaqueness presents formidable challenges for public authorities but that its consequences can be mitigated by credible regulation. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Vi undersöker sambandet mellan volatilitet och institutionell breadth of ownership på Stockholmsbörsen mellan 2010 och 2018. Denna undersökning är unik eftersom vi använder breadth of ownership som mått på institutionellt ägande. Den från litteraturen formade hypotesen att institutionellt ägande bör ha en dämpande effekt på volatiliteten motbevisades. Vi fann istället att större breadth of ownership förknippas med högre volatilitet i medelstora och stora företag, medan sambandet inte var signifikant i små företag. Vidare såg vi att småbolag som lämnat utdelning förknippades med en högre volatilitet. Vi menar att dessa observationer till stor del kan förklaras av att institutioner skapar volatilitet i aktier de äger som följd av ökade handelsvolymer. / This paper investigates the relationship between stock return volatility and institutional breadth of ownership on the Swedish stock market during the period from 2010 to 2018. Our paper is unique in its form since we are using institutional breadth of ownership as a proxy for institutional ownership. The hypothesis is based on prior literature that suggests institutional ownership and volatility should be negatively correlated. Instead we found the relationship to be positive in medium and large firms, and not significant in small firms. Furthermore, we found that small firms that pay dividends have had a significant positive relation to volatility. We suggest that these observations largely can be explained by institutional investors increasing trading volumes, and as an extension increasing volatility.

In this thesis, I take a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach to investigate optimal aggregate dividend policy. I make the following contribution: 1. I extend the standard DSGE model to incorporate a residual dividend policy, external financing and default and find that simulated optimal aggregate payouts are much more volatile than the observed data when other variables are close to the values observed in the data. 2. I examine the sensitivity of optimal aggregate dividend policy to the level of the representative agent¿s habit motive. My results show that, when the habit motive gets stronger, the volatility of optimal aggregate payouts increases while the volatility of aggregate consumption decreases. This is consistent with the hypothesis that investors use cash payouts from well diversified portfolios to help smooth consumption. 3. I demonstrate that the variability of optimal aggregate payouts is sensitive to capital adjustment costs. My simulated results show that costly frictions from changing the capital base of the firm cause optimal aggregate dividends and real investments to be smooth and share prices to be volatile. This finding is consistent with prior empirical observations. 4. I run simulations that support the hypothesis that optimal aggregate dividend policy is similar when the representative firm is risk averse to when it has capital adjustment costs. In both cases, optimal aggregate dividends volatility is very low. 5. In all calibrated DSGE models, apart from case 4, optimal aggregate payouts are found to be countercyclical. This supports the hypothesis that corporations prefer to hold more free cash flows for potential investment opportunities instead of paying dividends when the economy is booming, but is inconsistent with observed data. Keywords: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE), real business cycle, utility function, habits, dividends

Выпускная квалификационная работа (магистерская диссертация) посвящена исследованию дивидендной политики. Предметом исследования выступает механизм разработки дивидендной политики, со всеми его особенностями формирования, методиками и формулами расчета, а также механизм взаимодействия данной системы со смежными и взаимозависимыми областями. Основной целью магистерской диссертации является разработка ключевых направлений и конкретных мероприятий по развитию системы дивидендной политики для обеспечения развития предприятия и увеличению стоимости компании. В заключении обозначены рекомендации по совершенствованию дивидендной политики и ее применению. / The final qualifying work (master's thesis) is devoted to the study of dividend policy. The subject of the research is the mechanism for developing a dividend policy, with all its peculiarities of formation, methods and calculation formulas, as well as the mechanism of interaction of this system with adjacent and interdependent areas. The main purpose of the master's thesis is to develop key areas and specific measures for the development of the dividend policy system to ensure the development of the enterprise and increase the value of the company. In conclusion, recommendations for improving the dividend policy and its application are indicated.

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