The aim of the thesis is to select a suitable heat source for a residential building using simulation modeling and multiple-criteria decision analysis. The market is offering plenty of possibilities, thus the part of this thesis is dedicated to description of main characteristics and pros and cons of most common heat sources (e.g. coal, biomass, natural gas, electricity, heat pumps). There are many ways to decide which source is an optimal solution for a house. In this thesis, there are presented four possible approaches: decision based on the analysis of the total costs of the source and the methods WSA, TOPSIS and ELECTRE III. In the end, the results of these methods are summarized together with the qualitative factors which are also considered in the decision making process.

Photovoltaic (PV) solar electricity generation has the potential to reduce the demand for more traditional fossil and nuclear power generation. Community PV solar installations allow energy users to share the electricity generated by these plants. Optimal siting of community solar installations will allow for maximum electricity generation while avoiding environmental conflicts, as well as, minimizing construction costs. This study identifies opportunities for community solar plants in Maricopa and Pinal Counties, Arizona, of ¼-acre in size. Input parameters fall into economic, physical, and environmental categories. Each of the input parameters were classified from 1 (not suitable) to 9 (highly suitable). Next, the classified rasters in each category were weighed according to importance, and Esri’s Weighted Sum tool was used to generate a combined raster for the category. The three resulting environmental, economic, and physical characteristic rasters were weighed again, and the Weighted Sum tool was used to generate a raster of community solar suitability scores. Next, a mask of locations inappropriate for community-scale solar development was created, including lakes, rivers, streams, and residential rooftops, which are too small to accommodate ¼-acre community solar installations. The masked areas were removed from the suitability raster, and the suitability raster was reclassified using standard deviations to generate a preference map with values ranging from 1 (low preference) to 3 (high preference). The model output reveals 68 percent of the study area is of medium or high preference for community solar installations. Maricopa and Pinal counties provide many opportunities for community solar installations.

Submitted by Nadir Basilio (nadirsb@uninove.br) on 2016-06-01T14:36:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jose Luiz Rodrigues Junior.pdf: 1816384 bytes, checksum: f83b0cfa9558fadd55f06d3f851584a9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-01T14:36:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jose Luiz Rodrigues Junior.pdf: 1816384 bytes, checksum: f83b0cfa9558fadd55f06d3f851584a9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-06-17 / In current data centers, processing routines are scheduled to perform in a given period of time and, in case of delay, make it impossible to conduct the activities of everyday life of the various sectors of the company. Even with modern servers, due to the large volume of data to be processed, it is possible that certain computers are overloaded causing a drop in performance, a longer time to implement and consequently delays in the delivery of results. In this case, alternative scenarios can be created to sequence the tasks again. This work aimed to apply the multi-criteria decision analysis method on the results of the simulation of alternative scenarios for sequencing tasks on computers in a datacenter, in order to overload the resolution of problems. To achieve this purpose have been developed simulation models of task sequencing scenarios and replacement of computer overloaded. The analysis of simulation results was made based on three criteria, namely the Total Processing Time (makespan), the Total delay time, and the number of Delayed Tasks. Subsequently, the results were submitted to analysis method of AHP multicriteria decision (Analitycal Hierarchy Process), allowing you to choose the best setting according to established criteria. It was concluded that the modeling and computer simulation, combined with multi-criteria decision analysis method, can aid in decision making, as it enables sequencing to identify the best solution possible alternative scenarios in front of a computer overload situations. / Nos atuais Datacenters, as rotinas de processamento são programadas para executar em determinado período de tempo e, em caso de atraso, impossibilitar a condução das atividades do dia a dia dos diversos setores da empresa. Mesmo com os modernos servidores, devido ao grande volume de dados para serem processados, é possível que determinados computadores sejam sobrecarregados provocando uma queda em seu desempenho, um tempo maior para a execução e, consequentemente, atrasos na entrega dos resultados. Nesse caso, cenários alternativos podem ser criados para sequenciar novamente as tarefas. Assim, este trabalho teve por objetivo aplicar o método de análise de decisão multicritério nos resultados da simulação de cenários alternativos para o sequenciamento de tarefas em computadores de um Datacenter, visando a resolução para problemas de sobrecarga. Para atingir esse propósito, foram desenvolvidos modelos de simulação de cenários de sequenciamento de tarefas e substituição do computador com sobrecarga. A análise dos resultados da simulação foi realizada considerando três critérios, a saber: o Tempo Total de Processamento (makespan), o Tempo Total de Atraso, e o Número de Tarefas Atrasadas. Posteriormente, os resultados foram submetidos ao método de análise de decisão multicritério AHP (Analitycal Hierarchy Process), permitindo escolher o melhor cenário segundo os critérios estabelecidos. Concluiu-se que a modelagem e simulação computacional, aliada ao método de análise de decisão multicritério, pode auxiliar na tomada de decisão, uma vez que possibilita identificar a melhor solução de sequenciamento em cenários alternativos possíveis diante de situações de sobrecarga de um computador.

Global competition is growing for companies everywhere and the demand for new and improved products are rising for each day that passes. The globalization brings new opportunities as well as new challenges since companies need to stay up to date and implement new technologies to stay competitive. Not only do customers want up to date products, they also want high quality, low price and individualized products, customized for their needs. This puts high demand on manufacturing companies to adapt their businesses, increase product diversity and to being able to introduce new variations and new products quickly.  Since the drastic evolution of technology has increased the competitiveness of industrial companies, and the mass customization demands have increased, the necessity to investigate potential system alternatives towards improving production processes, with the help from the new technology, is required. One way of doing this is to revaluate one's assembly layouts since the layout design decision is highly connected to the product portfolio and the production volumes. The specific objective of this thesis is to broaden the case company’s, ABB, knowledge on ways their assembly of large robots can be improved with the focus on potential future assembly solutions. The overall aim of this thesis work is to identify state-of-the-art possible layout design alternatives, evaluate their performances and finding a method of choosing the final layout approach. This is answered by research questions connected to plant layout selection methodology, plant layout options and finally recommendations for the case company. The methodology chosen for deciding the recommended layout is the fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process which is a multi-criteria decision-making tool suitable for decision problems with a hierarchical structure, having main attributes and sub attributes connected to each main attribute. Twenty-four attributes were created and ten layouts based on company observations and a literature study. The layout with the highest score was a layout based on a modernized version of the common fixed position layout. The overall recommendation for the case company was to focus on having a layout in the future with focus on a high technology level as well as high flexibility, for also receiving high performance.

This thesis holistically examines the potential for tidal stream turbine (TST) integration to displace diesel generated electricity in remote coastal First Nations communities within the Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific Coast region of British Columbia. This thesis utilizes a combination of spatial analysis (GIS Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis) to identify sites; stakeholder engagement to assess TST suitability, bridge knowledge gaps, and understand desired characteristics of community energy systems; and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) analyses for existing diesel and externality included scenarios along with potential TST costs in a candidate community. Results illustrate the need for information within these communities, from resource quantification to characteristics of renewable energy technologies and system feasibility; self-sufficiency as being the primary transition driver; and funding/human resource capacity as being substantial barriers. Within the study region ≈89.8 km2 of feasible resource was identified, with ≈22 km2 of potentially suitable tidal resource in proximity to nine communities. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in difficulties contacting and arranging interviews with the most suitable communities. Driven by the holistic research mandate requiring community stakeholder engagement to occur in tandem with the economic analyses, Queen Charlotte Village and Skidegate Landing on Haida Gwaii were chosen as the candidate communities, despite not being the most suitable identified communities. The community interviews revealed TSTs as being an acceptable renewable energy technology. Furthermore, the identified site in Skidegate Inlet (SI) was found to have favourable Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) for TST development. Existing diesel generation carries a LCOE of $0.63/kWh, being $0.08-0.14 more per kWh than the literature cited LCOE range for TSTs. The LCOE for CO2 equivalent externalities at current carbon tax prices was found to be an additional $0.02/kWh. Despite having a technically viable peak spring current speed, the SI site was financially unviable for 284 kW of rated capacity across all diesel LCOE scenarios driven by capacity factor (1.62%), high cabling costs (approximately one third of capital costs), and outdated data/assumptions within the Natural Resources Canada Tidal Project Cost Estimation tool used in the tidal LCOE calculations. This work contributes to the progression of tidal energy development on BCs coast along with demonstrating the utility of holistic assessment frameworks for RETs across environmental, social, and economic considerations. The results of this thesis can inform existing MSP efforts in the Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific region and the framework developed can be built upon and altered for global use in pursuit of sustainable energy transitions. / Graduate

The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational framework. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. The complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. This thesis aims to overcome some of these challenges, and to demonstrate how new modeling approaches can provide successful integrative water resources research. It focuses on the development of new integrated modeling approaches which allow integration of not only physical processes but also socio-economic and environmental issues and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems. To achieve this goal, two new approaches are developed in this thesis. At first, a Bayesian network (BN)-based decision support tool is developed to conceptualize hydrological and socio-economic interaction for supporting management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems. The method demonstrates the value of combining different commonly used integrated modeling approaches. Coupled component models are applied to simulate the nonlinearity and feedbacks of strongly interacting groundwater-agricultural hydrosystems. Afterwards, a BN is used to integrate the coupled component model results with empirical knowledge and stakeholder inputs. In the second part of this thesis, a fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool is developed to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrates physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approaches are applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structures. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The first method can aid in the impact assessment of alternative management interventions on sustainability of aquifer systems while accounting for economic (agriculture) and societal interests (employment in agricultural sector) in the study area. Results from the second method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach suits to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. The new approaches can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resource systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

This thesis analyses how public decision-makers can rapidly and sustainably decarbonise their regions, considering the challenge that promoting timely decarbonisation represents. The research was divided into three phases and developed using desk studies and interviews with Project Drawdown (PD) experts, Swedish public officials and researchers. In phase one, PD solutions showed a shortcoming in sustainable operationalisation of global decarbonisation solutions. It was found that they alone could not account for sustainability, and that there is dependency on the context of application and on decision-making processes. In phase two, it was found that sustainability could be embedded in decision-making for decarbonisation through decision support. In the Blekinge example case, several challenges were found, for which sustainable decision support was needed. To respond to this challenge, a Decision Support tool (DST) was created, based on multi-criteria decision analysis. This three-step generic tool provides a relevance assessment to prove the suitability of decarbonisation solutions in the given context, a sustainability assessment to address sustainability challenges, and a prioritisation step for strategic decision-making. The tool was validated to be useful by Swedish policymakers and by international experts. This DST has the potential to support policy-making around the world to decarbonise regions rapidly and sustainably.

Cette thèse concerne l’étude des débats argumentatifs entre plusieurs agents artificiels. Notre travail est motivé par les difficultés qui surgissent quand un nombre important d’utilisateurs interagissent et débattent sur le Web, en échangeant des arguments sur différents sujets. Ces difficultés se situent au niveau de la représentation des connaissances des agents impliqués dans le débat, de la représentation du débat, de la façon de tirer les conclusions du débat, de l'évaluation de la qualité du débat, de la définition des protocoles spécifiques d'interaction, et de l'étude des stratégies des agents qui souhaitent atteindre un but précis via le débat. La contribution de cette thèse consiste donc en: a) la modélisation d'un débat argumentatif entre plusieurs agents, la modélisation des expertises de ces derniers, et l'agrégation des opinions des différents experts sur différentes parties d'un débat; b) l'apport d'une aide à l'agent responsable de la gestion d'un débat donné, la proposition d'une méthode permettant d'évaluer la qualité des débats argumentatifs en fonction de la confiance que l'on peut avoir en leurs conclusions, ainsi que la proposition de solutions permettant d'améliorer la qualité des débats dont les conclusions ne sont pas clairement établies; c) l'apport d'une aide permettant aux agents qui participent à un débat argumentatif de déterminer quels arguments placer dans le débat, l'étude des systèmes argumentatifs munis d'une structure dynamique, l'étude des moyens disponibles permettant à un agent d'influencer un système dynamique afin d'atteindre son but, l'étude des modifications minimales permettant à un agent d’atteindre un objectif donné, l'étude des stratégies argumentatives basées sur ce changement minimal; d) la définition, l'étude et l'évaluation des protocoles argumentatifs multi-agents, ainsi que la définition de protocoles de différents types (1) basés sur une évaluation numérique d'arguments et (2) basés sur des extensions d'arguments, l'utilisation des différentes techniques pour assurer la cohérence d'un débat tout en laissant une liberté d'expression aux agents, et enfin un grand nombre d'expérimentations (sur des débats) permettant de tester différentes stratégies et de les évaluer en fonction de différents critères. / In this thesis multi-agent argumentation debates are studied. Our work is motivated by the issues which are raised when a large number of users interact and debate on the Web, by exchanging arguments on various topics. These issues are raised on the levels of representing the debating users' knowledge, representing the debate, computing the debate's conclusions, evaluating the debate's quality, defining specific protocols for user interaction, and studying debate strategies which users employ in order to achieve particular goals. This thesis' contribution consists in: a) proposing a way to model a multi-agent argumentation debate where the participants have different types of expertise, and proposing a way to aggregate their opinions; b) offering support to the agent who is arbitrating a debate, proposing a way to evaluate the quality of a debate on the basis of how confident we can be on its conclusions, and proposing solutions for improving the quality of a debate which lacks definite conclusions; c) offering support to the debating agents in order to determine which arguments they should put forward, studying dynamic argumentation systems, studying the potential ways in which an agent can influence a dynamic argumentation system in order to achieve his goal, studying the minimal change allowing an agent to achieve his goal, studying several argumentation strategies based on minimal change; d) defining, studying and evaluating multi-agent argumentation protocols, defining protocols of different types (1) based on numerical argument evaluation and (2) based on argument extensions, using different techniques to ensure a debate's coherence while ensuring some liberty of expression to the agents, and finally performing an important number of experiments (on debates) in order to test various strategies and evaluate them with respect to specific criteria.

Stora och Lilla Ullfjärden är två sjöar som tillhör den innersta delen av en vik i Mälaren. Här har den höga fosforbelastningen länge varit ett problem då den leder till kraftig algblomning varje år. Hittills har åtgärder mot fosforbelastningen riktats mot utsläppskällor av fosfor från omgivande mark, men dessa åtgärder har inte varit tillräckliga. Det beror på att fosfor har lagrats på sjöarnas bottnar under många år vilket orsakar intern fosforbelastning.  Restaureringsbehovet i sjöarna bestämdes genom att hitta den totalfosforhalt som krävs för att uppnå god ekologisk vattenstatus. Det är önskvärt att sjöarna uppnår god status med avseende på klorofyll, siktdjup och växtplankton. Dessa parametrar uppvisar starka samband till halten totalfosfor och på så sätt kunde målbilden för halten totalfosfor bestämmas till 9,4 µg/l i Stora Ullfjärden och 8,7 µg/l i Lilla Ullfjärden, med siktdjupet som den begränsande parametern.  En multikriterieanalys togs fram där det undersöktes vilken metod som är den lämpligaste sjörestaureringsåtgärden mot internbelastningen. Kostnader, effektivitet och livslängd för sex välstuderade åtgärdsmetoder fastställdes genom en metaanalys. Resultatet visar att aluminiumbehandling verkar vara det lämpligaste valet av åtgärdsmetod. Åtgärden innebär att en aluminiumlösning tillsätts sjöarnas sediment vilket binder fosforn och gör så att den inte frigörs.  Det undersöktes även om kostnaden för aluminiumbehandlingen kan motiveras genom att belysa sjöarnas ekonomiska värden. Under arbetet togs det fram olika typer av underlag för att bedöma sjöarnas värde. Genom att lista de tjänster som sjöarna bidrar med och tilldela tjänsterna ett uppskattat ekonomiskt värde konstaterades att sjöarna framför allt har ett högt naturvärde och bidrar med många kulturella ekosystemtjänster såsom bad, fiske och rekreation. Utifrån en tidigare studie uppskattades allmänhetens betalningsvilja för att uppnå god vattenstatus i Stora och Lilla Ullfjärden till 23 miljoner kronor. Det betyder att allmänhetens betalningsvilja täcker kostnaderna för aluminiumbehandlingen i Stora och Lilla Ullfjärden, vilket uppskattades till 22 miljoner kronor.  Med hjälp av bayesiansk beslutsanalys har det även kunnat konstateras att sjöarna bör aluminiumbehandlas om det minskade värdet för att god status inte uppnås (såsom minskat estetiskt värde, minskad biologisk mångfald, försämrad förmåga att rena vatten, med mera) anses kosta mer än 25 miljoner kronor på en 12 årsperiod. Eftersom beslutsmaterialet har en del osäkerheter finns det ett fortsatt behov av ytterligare undersökningar. / Stora Ullfjärden and Lilla Ullfjärden are two lakes that belong to the innermost part of a bay in Lake Mälaren. Phosphorus load has been a problem for a long time as it causes large algal bloom every summer. Attempt to decrease the phosphorus load in the lakes have so far been focused on measures to control the phosphorous emissions from the surrounding land. However, these measurers have not been sufficient. This is because phosphorus has been accumulated in the bottom sediment of the lakes for many years which cause internal phosphorus loading.  The amount of phosphorous needed to be removed was determined by identifying the maximum total phosphorus content the lake can handle while still demonstrating good ecological status. It is desirable that the lakes achieve good status regarding chlorophyll, secchi depth and phytoplankton. These three parameters show strong correlations to the total phosphorus content and in this way the desired future total phosphorus content could be calculated to 9,4 µg/l in Stora Ullfjärden and 8,7 µg/l in Lilla Ullfjärden, with the secchi depth as the limiting parameter. A multi-criteria decision analysis was developed to determine the most suitable lake restoration measure to reduce internal phosphorous loads. Costs, efficacy, and longevity of six well-known mitigation measures were determined by a meta-analysis. The results verify that aluminum treatment appears to be the most suitable choice. The method involves adding aluminum solution to the lakes' sediment, which binds phosphorus, so it is not released.  Additionally, it was examined whether the cost of aluminum treatment can be justified by highlighting the economic values ​​of the lakes. Different types of decision material are presented in the report to assess a value to the lakes. By listing services of the lakes and assign them an estimated economic value, it was determined that the lakes have a high nature value and contribute with many cultural ecosystem services such as swimming, fishing, and recreation. Based on a previous study, the public's willingness to pay to achieve good water status in Stora Ullfjärden and Lilla Ullfjärden was estimated to SEK 23 million. Hence, the public's willingness to pay covers the costs of the aluminum treatment in Stora and Lilla Ullfjärden, which was estimated to SEK 22 million.  Lastly, a Bayesian model for decision making was used. It was discovered that the lakes are recommended to undergo an aluminum treatment if the reduced value for not achieving good status in the lakes (e.g., decreased aesthetic value, reduced biodiversity, and impaired ability to purify water) is considered to cost more than SEK 25 million over a 12-year period. As the decision material has some uncertainties, there is a continuing need for further investigations.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第23591号 / 地環博第218号 / 新制||地環||42(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 宇佐美 誠, 教授 諸富 徹, 准教授 吉野 章 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DGAM