This research spans a variety of research topics with a common theme, providing decision support through the development and analysis of methods that assist decision making for natural resource and wildlife management. I used components of structured decision making and decision analysis to address natural resources management problems, specifically monitoring and estimating the status of harvested populations, as well as data collection decisions for landscape conservation. My results have implications for the way populations are monitored and their status is estimated. I find that the inclusion of error in data collection can have a substantial impact of the performance of abundance and growth rate estimates of harvested species and that the selection of estimation methods depends on what management objectives are most important. For example, the Sex-Age-Kill population estimation method best estimates the size of populations, while the Downing population reconstruction method better estimates trends in population growth rates. I provide a framework to support selection of the best estimation method while considering a monitoring program as a whole. Based on this framework the Vermont Fish and Wildlife Department will obtain the most benefits from a monitoring program including necropsy analysis that uses the Downing method to track population status. Finally, I demonstrated the use of value of information analysis as a tool to determine the relative expected benefits of addition spatial data collection for use in landscape mapping and conservation. This type of analysis can provide conservation agencies with a planning tool to direct budgets and mapping efforts.

The long-term success of wildlife conservation depends on maximizing the benefits of limited funds and data in pursuit of population and habitat objectives. The ultimate currency for wildlife management is progress toward long-term preservation of ample, wild, free wildlife populations and to this end, funds must be wisely spent and maximal use made from limited data. Through simulation-based analyses, I evaluated the efficacy of various models for estimating population abundance from harvest data. Because managers have different estimators to choose from and can also elect to collect additional data, I compared the statistical performance of different estimation strategies (estimator + dataset) relative to the financial cost of data collection. I also performed a value of information analysis to measure the impact that different strategies have on a representative harvest management decision. The latter analysis is not based on the cost of data, but rather on the management benefit derived from basing decisions on different datasets. Finally, I developed a hybrid modeling framework for mapping habitat quality or suitability. This framework makes efficient use of expert opinion and empirical validation data in a single, updatable statistical structure. I illustrate this method by applying it across an entire state.

This dissertation examines the identity threats perceived by individuals and organizations in Online Social Networks (OSNs). The research constitutes two major studies. Using the concepts of Value Focused Thinking and the related methodology of Multiple Objectives Decision Analysis, the first research study develops the qualitative and quantitative value models to explain the social identity threats perceived by individuals in Online Social Networks. The qualitative value model defines value hierarchy i.e. the fundamental objectives to prevent social identity threats and taxonomy of user responses, referred to as Social Identity Protection Responses (SIPR), to avert the social identity threats. The quantitative value model describes the utility of the current social networking sites and SIPR to achieve the fundamental objectives for averting social identity threats in OSNs. The second research study examines the threats to the external identity of organizations i.e. Information Security Reputation (ISR) in the aftermath of a data breach. The threat analysis is undertaken by examining the discourses related to the data breach at Home Depot and JPMorgan Chase in the popular microblogging website, Twitter, to identify: 1) the dimensions of information security discussed in the Twitter postings; 2) the attribution of data breach responsibility and the related sentiments expressed in the Twitter postings; and 3) the subsequent diffusion of the tweets that threaten organizational reputation.

Nuclear energy is a source of carbon free power. With many countries striving to make deep carbon cuts in their energy sectors, nuclear energy could be a large part of the solution. One of the main obstacles standing in the way of the use of nuclear energy is the issue of used nuclear fuel disposal. According to the NEI, the U.S. creates about 2000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel per year and has generated around 76,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel over the last 4 decades. While there are technical problems that need to be solved, it is primarily the public and political opposition to the disposal of used nuclear fuel that stands in the way of progress in this area. This work addresses this issue through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). To make a decision among ten different fuel cycles, we have brought together five stakeholders: Nuclear Scientists and Engineers, Environmental Scientists, Economists, Political Scientists, and The General Public. Using Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT), we have been able to develop decision models for each stakeholder as well as a model that combines them all and came to the conclusion that of the ten fuel cycles considered, the best decision is to continue to use On Site Dry Cask Storage. This decision is made with small sample sizes but the methodology could be applied at much larger scales and can potentially be used to choose a fuel cycle that encounters much less political and social opposition to its implementation.

[pt] As grandes redes varejistas brasileiras vêm passando por um momento de forte expansão geográfica, que tem por objetivo aumentar o valor das empresas através de ganhos de escala e aumento do poder de negociação frente aos fornecedores. A entrada em um novo mercado geográfico, no entanto, apresenta inúmeras incertezas que podem afetar a rentabilidade destas novas lojas. O método tradicional de avaliação pelo fluxo de caixa descontado usualmente utilizado para a abertura de novas lojas, não considera que a abertura de uma primeira loja traz novas informações de mercado que permitem ao investidor otimizar a sua estratégia de penetração neste mercado. Essa dissertação propõe a utilização da Teoria de Opções Reais para avaliar o projeto de expansão de uma rede de varejo para uma nova cidade, através da valoração das flexibilidades gerenciais de expansão e abandono disponíveis para a empresa. O modelo proposto, ao incorporar o valor da operação de uma segunda loja no caso de exercício da opção de expansão, aumenta o valor total do projeto quando comparado ao valor presente líquido calculado pelo método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado, onde a decisão definitiva seria abrir apenas uma loja. A Teoria de Opções Reais mostrou-se superior na avaliação do projeto, pois o valor do projeto calculado pelo método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado está subestimado ao não considerar as flexibilidades existentes no projeto. / [en] The large Brazilian retail companies are undergoing strong geographical expansion in order to enhance shareholders value by gains of scale and greater negotiation power with suppliers. The entrance into a new geographical market, however, presents many uncertainties that can affect the return of these new stores. The traditional approach of discounted cash flow method, does not take into account that the opening of the first new store reveals new market information that allows the investor to optimize his penetration strategy in this market. This dissertation proposes the use of the Real Options Theory to value the project to expand a retail company to a new market, by valuing the managerial flexibility of expansion and abandonment available to the company. By incorporating the value of the operation of a second store in case of the exercise of the expansion option , the proposed model increases the total value of the project when compared to the net present value calculated by the discounted cash flow analysis. The Real Options Theory was superior in the project valuation as the value of the project calculated by the discounted cash flow analysis is underestimated by not considering the existing flexibility in the project.

Healthcare decisions should be evidence-based and patient-centered. Patient-centered care is about providing quality care with the patient as the focus. The provider has to incorporate the patient’s values, preferences, and objectives into the clinical decision. Traditionally, clinical decisions were made by the provider alone. Healthcare decisions are complex, due to the multiple objectives and potential serious outcomes, making it difficult for the provider to facilitate shared decision-making with the patient. Decision support software can assist with decision-making, by letting the patient incorporate their preferences and perform the decision analysis. Annalisa is a decision support software that has been developed for this purpose. The objective of this thesis is to analyze Annalisa, from a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) perspective and to discuss the tool’s ability to assist with healthcare decisions in a patient-centered care setting. Annalisa’s elements and method were reviewed, using information from the developers. The input data and results from two healthcare studies using Annalisa were used to analyze the tool from a MCDA and patient-centered care perspective and discuss the tool’s ability to provide aid in healthcare decisions. The tool’s method of simple additive weighting (SAW) was compared to the expected utility function using a decision tree. The developers of Annalisa focused on the simplicity and ease of use, rather than creating a new kind of decision support tool. The two example studies indicated problems with the tool’s ability to incorporate the patient’s preferences and values. However, considering that one of the goals with using a decision aid software in healthcare is to assist with decision analysis after the patient has been presented with the information in the traditional healthcare decision guide, Annalisa makes an interesting attempt to provide aid in that next step of the decision-making process.

As estratégias para executar o transporte rodoviário de granéis sólidos agrícolas no Brasil são um desafio à tomada de decisão. Este trabalho emprega a coordenação vertical e a análise da decisão para apresentar uma discussão acerca do processo decisório nas organizações. O método de análise multicritério, baseado em curvas de valor, permite a comparação de arranjos de governança em situações específicas. Para isso, foram definidos os principais objetivos, critérios e variáveis dos problemas de verticalização no transporte, e os resultados obtidos apontaram que o transporte verticalizado apresentou pior desempenho do que alternativas híbridas ou terceirizadas. Tal resultado suporta que em ambientes com alta dependência de custos e com baixa especificidade do ativo há maior tendência de se encontrar estruturas híbridas ou coordenadas via mercado. O levantamento descritivo do transporte rodoviário com empresas embarcadoras de cargas agrícolas bem como o resultado do modelo multicritério aplicado apontaram um mercado de transporte altamente terceirizado, que seria fomentado pela atual incerteza e baixa profissionalização dos transportadores rodoviários. À medida que a diferença de preços entre o modelo terceirizado e verticalizado diminui, há preferência pela estrutura hierárquica, dado o seu melhor desempenho nos benefícios oferecidos. Diante das mudanças no ambiente institucional, tal como a regulamentação dos transportes, os arranjos competitivos podem sofrer alterações. Para os tomadores de decisão, as estruturas verticalizadas poderiam compor com maior escala as estratégias das embarcadoras à medida que os custos da operação própria se aproximem dos valores praticados pelas transportadoras. / The strategies to perform the transportation of agricultural commodities by truck in Brazil are a challenge to decision making. This paper brings together vertical coordination and decision analysis, to present a discussion of decision making in organizations. The Multiple Criterial Decision Analisys (MCDA), method based on value functions, allows comparison of governance arrangements in specific situations. After define the main objectives, criteria and variables found in transport verticalization problems, the results showed worse performance of verticalized arrengements than hybrid or outsourced alternatives. This result supports that in environments with high dependence on low costs and asset low specificity are more likely to meet hybrid or market coordinated structures. However, the descriptive survey of road transport with agricultural shippers and the results of the multicriterial model indicated a highly outsourced transport market, which would be fostered by the current uncertainty and low professionalism of haulers. As the price difference between the outsourced model and vertical decreases there is a preference for hierarchical structure given his best performances in the benefits offered. Given the changes in the institutional environment, such as the transport regulation, competitive arrangements may change. This type of preference by decision makers would compose the vertical structures with more scale strategies by shippers.

Este trabalho trata da logística envolvida em operações de resposta a desastres, com foco na entrega final de suprimentos destinados a ajudar vítimas. Seu propósito é investigar os objetivos pertinentes ao planejamento do transporte da carga e encontrar uma metodologia para definir estratégia que sirva à tomada de decisão em campo. Para tanto, primeiramente identifica-se os objetivos adotados em modelos de Pesquisa Operacional para a tarefa em questão, através da análise de conteúdo das publicações pertinentes. Então, a abordagem do Pensamento Focado em Valores é utilizada para estruturar o problema. Finalmente, o método Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique Exploiting Ranks (SMARTER) é empregado na construção de um modelo de Análise da Decisão Multicritério (ADM), com consulta a um profissional experiente da área humanitária e aproveitando a análise da literatura previamente realizada. Neste processo, são elaboradas e avaliadas seis alternativas para a tomada de decisão condizentes com os valores da comunidade humanitária. Os resultados obtidos mostram que existe incompatibilidade entre os critérios de desempenho identificados nas publicações existentes e os objetivos perseguidos pelo Tomador da Decisão (TD) real. De acordo com o modelo construído, o atendimento de prioridades e a manutenção da sustentabilidade da operação são os objetivos que devem ser levados em conta para planejar a entrega de carga em pós-desastre, sendo que o custo e a equidade da distribuição não devem ser considerados. Conclui-se que o método adotado é útil à definição destes critérios e também ao desenvolvimento de estratégias que resultem em distribuições de ajuda melhores, aos olhos do próprio TD. Desta forma, ressalta-se que este trabalho contribui à área da Logística Humanitária com a investigação dos objetivos, assim como ao campo da ADM pela formalização dos processos de elaboração de alternativas, além da adição de mais uma aplicação possível ao repertório do método SMARTER. / This study concerns the logistics of disaster response operations, with a focus on final delivery of supplies to victims. The objectives here are to investigate what objectives are pertinent to the transportation-planning task and to find a methodology for choosing a strategy that aids decision-making on the field. For achieving these, a content analysis of Operations Research models is done, allowing the identification of such objectives, from which the problem is structured using a Value-Focused Thinking approach. Subsequently, the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Exploiting Ranks (SMARTER) is employed to build a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model, consulting an experienced humanitarian professional and taking into account the results from the previous analysis. Throughout this process, six alternatives for making decisions are designed and evaluated based on the objectives defined. Findings are that there is incompatibility between performance criteria identified in the literature and objectives pursued by a real Decision Maker (DM). From the model presented by this thesis, one concludes that satisfying priorities and sustaining the response operation are the objectives to be taken into account when drawing an aid distribution plan. It also follows that the methodology adopted here is useful to defining such performance criteria and to develop strategies that result in better outcomes, as judged by the DM. Therefore, this study contributes to Humanitarian Logistics research area by casting a light on the objectives of a post-disaster task, and to the MCDA field by formalizing the process of designing alternatives for complex problems, besides adding a new application of SMARTER to its repertory.

<p>Effects of functioning transportation infrastructure are receiving more and more environmental and social concern nowadays. Nevertheless, preliminary corridor plans are usually developed on the basis of technical and economic criteria exclusively. By the time of environmental impact assessment (EIA), which succeeds, relocation is practically impossible and only preventative measures can be applied.</p><p>This paper proposes a GIS-based method of delimiting motorway corridor and integrating social, environmental and economic factors into the early stages of planning. Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques are used to assess all possible alternatives. GIS-held weighted shortest path algorithm enables to locate the corridor. The evaluation criteria are exemplary. They include nature conservation, buildings, forests and agricultural resources, and soils. Resulting evaluation surface is divided into a grid of cells, which are assigned suitability scores derived from all evaluation criteria. Subsequently, a set of adjacent cells connecting two pre-specified points is traced by the least-cost path algorithm. The best alternative has a lowest total value of suitability scores.</p><p>As a result, the proposed motorway corridor is routed from origin to destination. It is afterwards compared with an alternative derived by traditional planning procedures. Concluding remarks are that the location criteria need to be adjusted to meet construction</p><p>requirements as well as analysis process to be automated. Nevertheless, the geographic information system and the embedded shortest path algorithm proved to be well suited for preliminary corridor location analysis. Future research directions are sketched.</p>

The complexity of the strategic decision making environments, in which busi- nesses and governments live in, makes such decisions more and more difficult to make. People and organizations with access to the best known decision support modelling and analysis tools and methods cannot seem to benefit from such re- sources. We argue that the reason behind the failure of most current decision and game theoretic methods is that these methods are made to deal with operational and tactical decisions, not strategic decisions. While operational and tactical decisions are clear and concise with limited scope and short-term implications, allowing them to be easily formalized and reasoned about, strategic decisions tend to be more gen- eral, ill-structured, complex, with broader scope and long-term implications. This research work starts with a review of the current dominant modelling and analysis approaches, their strengths and shortcomings, and a look at how pioneers in the field criticize these approaches as restrictive and unpractical. Then, the work goes on to propose a new paradigm shift in how strategic decisions and conflicts should be modelled and analyzed. Constrained Rationality is a formal qualitative framework, with a robust method- ological approach, to model and analyze ill-structured strategic single and multi- agent decision making situations and conflicts. The framework brings back the strategic decision making problem to its roots, from being an optimization/efficiency problem about evaluating predetermined alternatives to satisfy predetermined pref- erences or utility functions, as most current decision and game theoretic approaches treats it, to being an effectiveness problem of: 1) identifying and modelling explic- itly the strategic and conflicting goals of the involved agents (also called players and decision makers in our work), and the decision making context (the external and internal constraints including the agents priorities, emotions and attitudes); 2) finding, uncovering and/or creating the right set of alternatives to consider; and then 3) reasoning about the ability of each of these alternatives to satisfy the stated strategic goals the agents have, given their constraints. Instead of assuming that the agents’ alternatives and preferences are well-known, as most current decision and game theoretic approaches do, the Constrained Rationality framework start by capturing and modelling clearly the context of the strategic decision making situation, and then use this contextual knowledge to guide the process of finding the agents’ alternatives, analyzing them, and choosing the most effective one. The Constrained Rationality framework, at its heart, provides a novel set of modelling facilities to capture the contextual knowledge of the decision making sit- uations. These modelling facilities are based on the Viewpoint-based Value-Driven - Enterprise Knowledge Management (ViVD-EKM) conceptual modelling frame- work proposed by Al-Shawa (2006b), and include facilities: to capture and model the goals and constraints of the different involved agents, in the decision making situation, in complex graphs within viewpoint models; and to model the complex cause-effect interrelationships among theses goals and constraints. The framework provides a set of robust, extensible and formal Goal-to-Goal and Constraint-to Goal relationships, through which qualitative linguistic value labels about the goals’ op- erationalization, achievement and prevention propagate these relationships until they are finalized to reflect the state of the goals’ achievement at any single point of time during the situation. The framework provides also sufficient, but extensible, representation facilities to model the agents’ priorities, emotional valences and attitudes as value properties with qualitative linguistic value labels. All of these goals and constraints, and the value labels of their respective value properties (operationalization, achievement, prevention, importance, emotional valence, etc.) are used to evaluate the different alternatives (options, plans, products, product/design features, etc.) agents have, and generate cardinal and ordinal preferences for the agents over their respective alternatives. For analysts, and decision makers alike, these preferences can easily be verified, validates and traced back to how much each of these alternatives con- tribute to each agent’s strategic goals, given his constraints, priorities, emotions and attitudes. The Constrained Rationality framework offers a detailed process to model and analyze decision making situations, with special paths and steps to satisfy the spe- cific needs of: 1) single-agent decision making situations, or multi-agent situations in which agents act in an individualistic manner with no regard to others’ current or future options and decisions; 2) collaborative multi-agent decision making situ- ations, where agents disclose their goals and constraints, and choose from a set of shared alternatives one that best satisfy the collective goals of the group; and 3) adversarial competitive multi-agent decision making situations (called Games, in gamete theory literature, or Conflicts, in the broader management science litera- ture). The framework’s modelling and analysis process covers also three types of con- flicts/games: a) non-cooperative games, where agents can take unilateral moves among the game’s states; b) cooperative games, with no coalitions allowed, where agents still act individually (not as groups/coalitions) taking both unilateral moves and cooperative single-step moves when it benefit them; and c) cooperative games, with coalitions allowed, where the games include, in addition to individual agents, agents who are grouped in formal alliances/coalitions, giving themselves the ability to take multi-step group moves to advance their collective position in the game. ....