La gestión de demanda en las organizaciones es de vital importancia para una gestión adecuada de los recursos y generar beneficios. Entre los beneficios que genera este modelo, se pueden evidenciar el ahorro en costos que pudieron haber incurrido por no tener una gestión adecuada, en el alineamiento de los proyectos de TI a los objetivos estratégicos y la generación de valor para la organización. El presente trabajo de investigación propone implementar la metodología “Gestión de la Demanda Estratégica de la TI” (GEDESTI)” por Igor Aguilar, para la gestión de la demanda estratégica de organizaciones de previsionamiento. En el primer capítulo, se presenta el marco teórico donde se describen los sistemas de previsión actuales a nivel internacional y nacional, así como los marcos de referencia de los modelos de madurez de la gestión de demanda estratégica. En el segundo capítulo, se presenta la situación problemática de la organización. Se describe la organización previsional y se detallan los problemas encontrados que tienen un impacto económico y de imagen organizacional. En el tercer capítulo, se presenta la propuesta de solución. En este punto se detalla el nivel de madurez actual de la organización y el nivel de madurez al cual se pretende llegar. Se propone un modelo de procesos para la gestión de la demanda adecuado a la metodología, además de las herramientas, roles y responsabilidades, costo beneficio y viabilidad que forman parte de la propuesta presentada. En el cuarto capítulo, se presentan las conclusiones y recomendaciones que se deprenden del trabajo de investigación trabajados en la presente tesis. / The demand's management plays a vital role for proper resources direction and generating benefits. Among the benefits generated by this model, can be evidenced the cost savings that may have been incurred from not having adequate management, in the alignment of IT projects with strategic objectives and the value generation for the organization. The current research proposes the methodology implementation "IT Strategic Demand's Management" (GEDESTI) by Igor Aguilar, for strategic demand's management of pension system. The first chapter is presented theoretical framework where the current forecasting systems are described at the international and national level, as well as the reference frameworks for the maturity models of strategic demand management. The second chapter is presented the organization's problematic situation. It describes the pension system and details the problems encountered that have an economic and organizational image impact. The third chapter is presented the proposed solution. At this point, the current organization's maturity level and the maturity level at which it is intended to reach are detailed. A process model is proposed for appropriate demand management to the methodology, in addition to the tools, roles and responsibilities, cost benefit and viability that are part of the proposal presented. The fourth chapter are presented the conclusions and recommendations derived from the research work carried out in this thesis. / Trabajo de investigación

El pronóstico erróneo de huéspedes y materiales en los hoteles de Huancayo es un problema que conlleva a generar gastos ocasionados por rotura de stock y exceso de stock, que a su vez conlleva a pérdida de clientes. De esta forma se diseñó un modelo el cual mediante cuatro métodos de pronóstico puede sugerir al hotel qué cantidad de huéspedes van a arribar al hotel y cuántos productos se debe de comprar para evitar costos adicionales. En esta investigación se dará a conocer los resultados obtenidos con la aplicación de un modelo de pronóstico de la demanda basado en forcast en el hotel “Rey” ubicado en la provincia de Huancayo del departamento de Junín. En el presente artículo se pronosticó cantidades para el año 2020 y se comparan mediante el error MAPE, así se logra sugerir un pronóstico con un porcentaje de error reducido y mejor a comparación con el que se tenía antes de la implementación. / The wrong forecast of guests and materials in Huancayo’s hotels is a big problem that leads to the generation of expenses caused by stock breakage and excess stock, which in turn leads to loss of customers. In this way, a model was designed which, through four forecasting methods, can suggest to the hotel how many guests will arrive at the hotel and how many products should be purchased to avoid additional costs. In this research, the results obtained with the application of a demand forecasting model based on forcast in the “Rey” hotel, located in Huancayo, will be disclosed. In this article, quantities were predicted for the year 2020 and they are compared using the MAPE error, in this way is possible to suggest a forecast with a reduced and better error percentage compared to the one that was had before implementation. / Trabajo de investigación

A region's evacuation strategy encompasses a variety of areas and needs. Primary among these is the minimization of total evacuation time, represented in models as the clearance time estimate (CTE). A generic testbed simulation network model was developed. An input/output (I/O) analysis was performed to establish a theoretical baseline CTE. Results were compared with simulations; analysis showed that the I/O method underestimated simulated CTE as a function of network size, with a correction factor range of 1.09 to 1.19. A regression model was developed for the generic network. Predictors were total trips, and network size defined as a function of origin-destination distance. Total Trips ranged between 40,000 and 60,000. Holding size constant, R-squared values ranged from 97.1 to 99.3, indicating a high goodness of fit. Holding Total Trips constant, R-squared values ranged from 74.5 to 89.2. Finally, both Total Trips and size were used as predictors; the resulting regression model had an R-squared value of 97.3. This overall model is more useful, since real world situations are not fixed in nature. The overall regression model was compared to a case network. The generic network regression model provided a close CTE approximation; deltas ranged from -4.7% to 8.6%. It was concluded that a generic network can serve as a surrogate for a case network over these ranges. This study developed and evaluated heuristic strategies for evacuation using the generic network. Strategies were compared with a simultaneous departure loading scenario. Six different grouping strategies were evaluated. An initial evaluation was conducted using the generic network, and strategies that showed potential CTE reduction were implemented on the case study network. Analysis indicated that the HF-10 (half-far) grouping for 60k total trips showed potential reduction. A complete simulation was conducted on the case network for all HF scenarios; an ANOVA was run using Dunnett's comparison. Results indicated that the HF grouping with 20% and 30% departure shifts showed potential for CTE reduction. From this it was concluded that the generic network could be used as a testbed for strategies that would show success on a case network.

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No / his book explores a new framework of Adaptive Water Management (AWM) for evaluating existing approaches in urban water management. It highlights the need to adopt multidisciplinary strategies in water management while providing an in-depth understanding of institutional interactions amongst different water related sectors. The key characteristics of AWM i.e. polycentric governance, organisational flexibility and public participation are investigated and described through a critical review of the relevant literature. The book presents an empirical case study undertaken in a selected developing-country city to investigate the potential gaps between the current water management approaches and possible implementation of AWM. Feasibility of AWM operations is examined in an environment surrounded by established water management structure with centralised governance and an institutional process based on technical flexibility. The key elements of AWM performance are (re)structured and transformed into decision support systems. Multi criteria decision models are developed to facilitate quantification and visualization of the elements derived from the case study, which is involved with water companies and water consumers. The book describes how the concept of AWM, along with structuring suitable decision support systems, can be developed and applied to developing-country cities. The book highlights the barriers for applying the AWM strategies that include established centralised decision making, bureaucratic interactions with external organisations, lack of organisational flexibility within the institutions, and lack of recognition of public role in water management. The findings outline that despite the lack of adaptability in the current water management in the case study, as an example of developing countries, there are positive attitudes among water professionals and the public towards adaptability through public-institutional participation.

Tillgänglighet till platser för fysisk aktivitet är viktigt för att tillfredsställa människans behov för rörelse, där en fysiskt aktiv livsstil genererar flera positiva hälsoaspekter. Ur en svensk kontext är stillasittande ett stort folkhälsoproblem, där framför allt unga inte är tillräckligt fysiskt aktiva, och mer än var femte invånare är stillasittande minst tio timmar per dag. Därmed är transportsystems roll gällande tillgänglighet till idrottsplatser av stor vikt, där fysisk aktivitet gynnas av god tillgång till kollektivtrafik samt säkra och trygga gång- och cykelvägar som förbinder olika målpunkter. Studiens syfte är därför att bidra till ökad förståelse gällande utmaningar och möjligheter relaterat till planering för tillgänglighet och hållbart resande kopplat till idrottsplatser, speciellt i förhållande till barn och ungdomar. Studien utgår från fallstudie som forskningsstrategi, där två idrottsplatser i Stockholm Stad, och en idrottsplats i Solna Stad studeras. Resultatet visar på att tillgänglighet som begrepp har många betydelser, vilket kan bidra till problematik i planeringen, och att det finns en otydlighet i aktörers ansvar sett till åtgärder för att gynna ett hållbart resande. Studien kommer fram till att det behövs ett ramverk för vad tillgänglighet betyder i relation till idrottsplatser, och ett behov av bättre riktade åtgärder för hållbart resande, som behöver samspelas med initiativ, och ske på bekostnad av framfarten för biltrafik. / Accessibility to places for physical activity is important to fulfil the human need for movement, where a physical lifestyle generates several positive health aspects.In the Swedish context, sedentary behaviour is a major public health problem, with young people in particular not being physically active enough, and more than one in five inhabitants being sedentary for at least ten hours a day. Thus, the role of transport systems in terms of accessibility to sports venues is of great importance, where physical activity is favoured by good access to public transport as well as safe and secure walking and cycling routes that connect different destinations. The aim of the study is therefore to contribute to a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities related to planning for accessibility and sustainable travel linked to sports grounds, especially in relation to children and young people. The study is based on a case study as a research strategy, where two sports grounds in Stockholm municipality, and one sports ground in Solna municipality are studied. The results show that accessibility as a concept has many meanings, which can contribute to problems in planning, and that there is a lack of clarity in the responsibilities of actors in terms of measures to promote sustainable travel. The study concludes that there is a need for a framework for what accessibility means in relation to sports grounds, and a need for better targeted measures for sustainable travel, which need to interact with initiatives, and take place at the expense of car traffic.

El presente trabajo de investigación tuvo como base en el análisis del proceso productivo de frutos confitados en la empresa Industrias Alimentarias SAC, ubicada en Lima, la cual muestra una demanda no atendida. Basado en esto, se realizó un diagnóstico de la situación actual del proceso productivo de frutos confitados, logrando identificar los problemas que afectan a lo largo del proceso productivo, para posteriormente proponer mejoras. Finalmente, se realizó un análisis económico-financiero de la propuesta para así evaluar su viabilidad. La propuesta se planteó para el proceso productivo de frutos confitados; para diagnosticar el proceso productivo de la empresa, se aplicó la ingeniería de métodos, donde se determinó una demanda insatisfecha de 568,83 toneladas para el año 2022, así mismo actividades improductivas del 15% y un cuello de botella de 24,43 minutos dentro del proceso de producción. Se propone realizar un Plan de Requerimiento de Materiales, mejorar la gestión de compras, realizar proyecciones de ventas y además un balance de línea de la producción. Al implementarse estas mejoras propuestas, se redujo la demanda insatisfecha del 26%, hubo una reducción en los tiempos de proceso, así como en las actividades improductivas en un 12%, Asimismo, la evaluación económicafinanciera señaló que la propuesta es rentable, porque presenta una Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR) de 786,27% y una relación de beneficio/costo de S/ 2,12. / The present research work is based on the analysis of the production system of candied fruits in the company Industrias Alimentarias SAC located in the city of Lima, which presents an unmet demand. Taking this into account, a diagnosis of the current situation of the production process of candied fruits was carried out, managing to identify the problems that affect throughout the production process, to subsequently propose improvements. Finally, an economic analysis of the proposal was carried out to evaluate its viability. The proposal was proposed for the production system of candied fruits, to diagnose the company's production system, method engineering was applied, where an unsatisfied demand of 568,83 tons was determined, equivalent to 56 882 finished units represented by 26%. by 2022, likewise unproductive activities of 15% and a bottleneck of 24,43 minutes within the production process. It is proposed to make a material requirement plan, improve purchasing management, make sales projections and also a production line balance. With the application of the improvements, the process time was reduced, as well as the percentage of unproductive activities by 12%, an increase in efficiency of 24%, its demand margin increased by 26%. Likewise, the economic evaluation determined that the proposal is profitable because it has an Internal Rate of Return of 786,27% and a benefit/cost ratio of S/ 2,12.

Transportsektorn dras med ett antal problem som är proportionerliga mot antalet bilresor. Kommuner som vill begränsa dessa kan utnyttja markanvändningspolitiken, där kommunen ofta har rådighet över parkeringstalen, d.v.s. kraven på antal bilparkeringsplatser som ska anläggas. Forskningen pekar på att sänkta parkeringstal är effektivt för att minska antalet bilresor, men ju mer effektiv sådan policy är, desto mindre acceptabel anses den ofta vara hos allmänheten. Syftet med denna uppsats är därför att undersöka vilka faktorer som är betydelsefulla för acceptansgraden och om kommuner kan påverka dessa för att öka acceptansen. Detta görs med en enkätstudie (n=245) bland boende i femtio olika flerbostadshus i Huddinge kommun, där samband mellan enkätsvaren och uppgifter om bostadshusets fysiska miljö samt dess parkeringsplanering undersöks med hjälp av multipel regression. Resultatet visar att individers upplevelse av andra medborgares grad av acceptans, individers uppfattning den befintliga trafikproblematiken samt individens preferenser för sitt eget resande är de viktigaste faktorerna som påverkar acceptansgraden. Studien visar vidare att sänkt parkeringstal vid bostaden är korrelerat med lägre acceptans för kommunens parkeringsriktlinjer, och att det därmed är angeläget att hitta sätt att skapa mer av den acceptans som annars riskerar att urholkas när låga parkeringstal tillämpas i allt fler flerbostadshus. De flesta faktorer som kommunen har kontroll över saknar samband med acceptansgraden, men resultatet pekar på att några möjligheter finns inom cykelparkeringsförbättringar och kort gångavstånd till kollektivtrafiken. Vidare skulle kommuner kunna använda sig av placering av parkeringsplatser längre från bostaden i stället för sänkt parkeringstal för att uppnå sina mål, eftersom forskning visar på liknande effekter, samtidigt som denna studie pekar på att avståndet från bostaden inte har något samband med acceptansen. / The transportation sector is affected by multiple issues that are proportional to the number of car trips. Municipalities who wish to mitigate these issues can alter their land use policy, in which it typically has the power to set minimum parking requirements (MPRs) for properties within its boundaries. Previous research shows that lowered MPRs are effective in reducing the number of car trips, but the more effective such policy is, the less acceptable it is typically deemed to be by the public. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to determine which factors affect policy acceptance and how the municipality can influence this. The study is conducted using a self-administered questionnaire (n=245) with participants from fifty different apartment buildings across the Huddinge municipality. Relationships among the questionnaire data, data about the physical environment at the respondent’s house and the land use policy applied during its construction are then examined using multiple regression. The results show that individuals’ perception of acceptance among other citizens, individuals’ perceptions of traffic problems and individuals’ own preferences related to travel behaviour are the most important factors affecting acceptance. Furthermore, the study shows that lower MPRs at the respondent’s residence is correlated with lower acceptance for the municipality’s present parking policy. Therefore, it is important to find ways to engender acceptance, since support for the policy might otherwise be undermined as low MPRs get implemented in a greater share of apartment buildings. Most factors that the municipality can control are not correlated with the degree of acceptance, but the results suggest some possibilities in residential bicycle parking improvements and shorter walking distances to public transport stops. Additionally, the municipality could shift the focus of its land use policy measures toward placement of parking spaces further away from entrances, since previous research show that this may have a similar effect on car trips, and this study shows that it is not correlated with the degree of acceptance.

Water is a symbol of life. It affects all organisms on earth and its importance is emphasised in times of drought. The human population growth places more demands on our natural resources. As pressures on the available water increases, more measures are required to utilise water sustainably. South Africa is classified as a water stressed country with less than 1700 cubic meters of water available per person per year. Rand Water supplies water to approximately 11 million people in Gauteng. During times of drought, restrictions imposed are aimed mainly at the broader Green Industry. This research investigated international strategies, existing restrictions in Gauteng, and undertook a survey within the Green Industry to determine the most appropriate response. This research proposes a new water supply shortage response plan for Rand Water in Gauteng with a total of four levels of restrictions implemented at different stages of water stress in the system. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Management)