This paper analyzes the effect of political and economic factors on the risk of regime change in countries between 1975 and 2010, using survival analysis with time-dependent covariates. The findings show that negative economic growth increases the risk of regime change in the following year, and that a higher level of GDP per Capita, as well as international trade, has an inhibiting effect on the risk of regime change in democracies. The results also show that countries with young regimes are more likely to experience a regime change, and that countries with a long tradition of democratic governance suffer virtually no risk of experiencing a regime failure. These findings lend heavy support to the democratic consolidation theory, while giving mixed support to other theories of economic and political causes of regime change. The more generalized approach to regime change used in this paper provides a stepping stone for opening up a greater understanding of the mechanisms which cause regime change in all types of governments, and regardless of the direction of the change in relation to democracy.

The study explored when, under what conditions, and to what extent did European integration, particularly the European Union’s requirement for democratic conditionality, contribute to democratic consolidation in Spain, Poland, and Turkey? On the basis of a four-part definition, the dissertation examined the democratizing impact of European integration process on each of the following four components of consolidation: (i) holding of fair, free and competitive elections, (ii) protection of fundamental rights, including human and minority rights, (iii) high prospects of regime survival and civilian control of the military, and (iv) legitimacy, elite consensus, and stateness. To assess the relative significance of EU’s democratizing leverage, the thesis also examined domestic and non-EU international dynamics of democratic consolidation in the three countries. By employing two qualitative methods (case study and process-tracing), the study focused on three specific time frames: 1977-1986 for Spain, 1994-2004 for Poland, and 1999-present for Turkey. In addition to official documents, newspapers, and secondary sources, face-to-face interviews made with politicians, academics, experts, bureaucrats, and journalists in the three countries were utilized. The thesis generated several conclusions. First of all, the EU’s democratizing impact is not uniform across different components of democratic consolidation. Moreover, the EU’s democratizing leverage in Spain, Poland, and Turkey involved variations over time for three major reasons: (i) the changing nature of EU’s democratic conditionality over time (ii) varying levels of the EU’s credible commitment to the candidate country’s prospect for membership, and (iii) domestic dynamics in the candidate countries. Furthermore, the European integration process favors democratic consolidation but its magnitude is shaped by the candidate country’s prospect for EU membership and domestic factors in the candidate country. Finally, the study involves a major policy implication for the European Union: unless the EU provides a clear prospect for membership, its democratizing leverage will be limited in the candidate countries.

This essay aims to explore and analyze Ukraine’s democratic development over time. This will be done within two time periods from 2007 to 2014 and 2014 to 2019 to enable drawing reasonable conclusions regarding what challenges prevent further democratic development and what similarities and differences can be seen between the periods. Democracy is often described as a complex concept that can vary between being defined minimalistic and maximalistic. This essay will study the maximalistic perception through the theory of Linz and Stepans four arenas of democratic consolidation, political society, civil society, the rule of law and state bureaucracy and be doing so as a qualitative theory consuming diachronical comparative study. The arenas will in turn be broken down into statements to make them easier to measure. This essay concludes that both periods have had democratic problems regarding all arenas. The widespread corruption remains as a main problem through both periods as do the low institutional trust, although in the second period the Crimea-conflict becomes the bigger political priority which affects the ongoing democratic process. Despite this civil society has remained strong and forced forward change when needed. To conclude there has been improvements but Ukraine still faces large democratic challenges.

In recent years, Gambia is one of the few countries having experienced development in a more democratic direction. As part of democratic consolidation, the process of reviewing the constitution was started in 2017 with an aim to be participatory and inclusive. This thesis seeks to investigate how the Gambian civil society organization TANGO has tried to impact the constitutional review process, to further contribute to the understanding of civil society in democratic consolidation. This is achieved through an explorative and descriptive case study focusing on TANGO’s practice of advocacy and accountability. The method used is mainly semi-structured informant interviews with persons central to civil society in the constitutional review process together with secondary sources such as legal documents and news articles. The results show that TANGO has exercised advocacy mainly in terms of position papers to the Constitutional Review Commission, whereas accountability has primarily been exercised through press conferences and lobbying. However, statements on their efforts as lacking and too late have been persistent in the study, meaning that even if efforts were done, they could have been improved or have other focal points for leveraged impact in the constitutional review process.

This study has been inspired by the political events in the past few years that signalled a general decline, instead of consolidation, of democracy in South Africa. The decline has caused a rising trust deficit between the government and the citizens of South Africa. These events have raised questions of the role of the media in the consolidation of democracy. Katrin Voltmer's pioneering work, The Media in Transitional Democracies (2013) shines an important light in delineating the role of the media in transitions, including democratic consolidation. Much of the focus of scholastic research in the subject of media and democracy has been on news and journalistic content. Jurgen Habermas' seminal work, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere (1989) also accorded more weight to the rational and cognitive, as opposed to the affective and emotive aspects of the media when arguing in favour of emancipatory potential of the public sphere. The rational and cognitive aspects are generally associated with news and journalistic content (McGuigan, 2005: 430). Unlike Habermas, this study follows the lead by scholars like Van Zoonen (2006) and McGuigan's (2005) interest in the popular entertainment content which has often been regarded as having little significance in politics, especially democracy. In its emphasis on the consolidation aspect of South African democratic transition, the study is conducted against the backdrop of the broader ‘third wave' transitions of the early 1990's (Huntington, 1991). The study's theoretical framework is aligned with Christians et al.'s (2009) revision of the Four Theories (Siebert, et al, 1956) of the press. Their approach is useful because of its normative strength that opens the possibilities of media roles in democratization. The normative approach allows a free exploration of the potential of the media, instead of restricting the media to the political systems within which they operate. In addition, it aligns itself to Jim McGuigan's theory of the cultural public sphere which highlights the often-ignored political potency of popular cultural texts in the public sphere. McGuigan (2005: 430) argues that the affective or emotive aspects of popular cultural texts enhance, rather than hinder, the quality of political engagement in the public sphere. Through entertainment television programmes, democratic ways of life can be portrayed as part of everyday, ordinary life (Stevenson, 2010: 276). Against the widely held expectation that the media should play a positive role in democracies, some scholars have noted that in reality, “this is not necessarily so” (Jebril, Stetka & Loveless, 2013: 3). Rather, the media can serve dictatorships as happily as they serve democracies (Voltmer, 2013: 23). Using the case studies of two soap operas of the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC), Muvhango and 7de Laan, the study explores the role of popular media in the enhancement or consolidation of democracy, and the circumstances under which this is carried out. The media of interest for this study is public service broadcasting (PSB). For most democracies of the third wave, especially in Africa, PSB has been an easy victim of political power. Because of its dependence on the state, PSB tends to be more susceptible to political interference than other media types. Like other PSBs, the SABC has clearly spelt-out objectives that are linked to the national developmental objectives, including the goal of promoting and deepening democracy. This connection makes it possible to evaluate the selected entertainment case studies against these objectives. The study uses Multimodal critical discourse analysis (MCDA) because it allows for the analysis of text in its multimodal form such as visuals and audio. It equally allows for the application of analytical tools borrowed from film and television theories. By indirect measurement, MCDA model is used in the study to evaluate how democracy is represented (promoted, negated, omitted) in various aspects of the text.

In the last fifteen years, conflict resolution, a collaborative, problem-solving approach to social conflicts, was introduced to new democracies in an attempt to develop civil society¿s capacity for conflict management (Mayer, 2000). Conflict resolution provides people with an opportunity to advocate effectively for their own interests in a non-violent, constructive manner through systematic educational efforts, skills trainings, dialogue initiatives, and mediation practices (Mayer, 2000). It empowers people to address, manage, and transform difficulties and antagonism into a source of positive social change and, thus, change people¿s negative psychological responses to conflicts (Bush & Folger, 1994). In this view, conflict resolution in new democracies¿ civil society provides citizens as well NGO practitioners with the skills and opportunities to practice how to express and resolve differences in a safe and constructive environment (Shonholtz, 1997). In an effort to provide additional information about civil society¿s conflict resolution practices and their affect in new democracies, this dissertation examines the existing efforts of South Korean civil society organisations to promote conflict resolution methodologies. Specifically, three organisations are examined to understand better South Korean civil society¿s response to PCR issues. Furthermore, by closely examining these three civil society organisations, this dissertation aims to explore what affect increased awareness and engagement in conflict resolution methodologies have on the democratic quality of civil society.

No description available.

Thesis (MPhil)--University of Stellenbosch, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa's history led to an unequal distribution in land ownership, which is not conducive to democratic consolidation. Land refortn is the means to address this problem. However, land reform, part of the larger process of transformation, is a potentially dangerous process: it can have negative implications on the rule of law. The objective of this study is to provide an analysis of the dynamic relationship between land reform, the rule of law and transformation in South Africa, within the debate on democratic consolidation. One can distinguish two paradigms regarding democracy: the liberal paradigm and the liberationist paradigm. These two paradigms have divergent views on the way land reform and transformation should be implemented, and what the goal of these two processes is. The liberal paradigm would seem to be more favourable for democratic consolidation, while the liberationist paradigm is a breeding ground for populist transformation. Furthermore, the negotiated constitutional settlement has left land reform with an ambiguity. On the one hand the constitution forces the govemment to address land reform, but on the other hand it firmly entrenches the private property rights by enforcing the 'willing buyer, willing seller' principle, which makes the process more costly and time consuming. The main hypothesis of this study is: Demographic indicators (race, party affiliation and provincial setting) influence support or rejection of the land reform policies of the South African govemment. Tbe dependent variable is 'support or rejection of the government's land reform policies'. Support for the govemment's land reform policies is indicative of the liberal paradigm and rejection of the govemment's policies is indicative of the liberationist paradigm. It is found that the majority of South Africans reject the govemment's land reform policies. However, strong divisions are evident. Respondents differ along racial, party affiliation and provincial lines. Thus, the liberationist paradigm dominates, but the liberal paradigm has a strong presence, creating an ideologically divided society. This means that the legitimacy of South Africa's land reform project, as well as the legitimacy of the constitution, is under stress. This does not bode well for democratic consolidation, as the rule of law is under severe threat. Thus, one can conclude that land reform is not going to make a positive contribution to the consolidation of South Africa's democracy, if a substantial financial injection is not found to increase the efficiency of the process. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid-Afrika se geskiedenis het aanleiding gegee tot 'n ongelyke verspreiding van grondeienaarskap. Dit is nie gunstig vir demokratiese konsolidasie nie. Grondhervorming IS die mamer waarmee die probleem aangespreek kan word. Grondhervorming, deel van die groter proses van transformasie, is egter 'n potensieel gevaarlike proses: dit kan negatiewe implikasies vir regsoewereiniteit hê. Die doel van hierdie tesis is om 'n analise van die dinamiese wisselwerking tussen grondhervorming, regsoewereiniteit en transformasie te verskaf, binne die debat oor demokratiese konsolidasie. Daar kan aangaande demokrasie tussen twee paradigmas onderskei word: die liberale paradigma en die bevrydings (liberationist) paradigma. Hierdie twee paradigmas het teenstrydige perspektiewe oor die manier waarop grondhervorming, sowel as transformasie, geïmplementeer behoort te word, sowel as wat die doel van hierdie twee prosesse is. Die liberale paradigma is meer geskik vir demokratiese konsolidasie, terwyl die bevrydings paradigma 'n teelaarde vir populistiese transformasie is. Verder het die onderhandelde grondwetlike skikking grondhervorming in 'n teenstrydigheid geplaas. Aan die een kant vereis die grondwet dat die regering grondhervorming moet aanspreek, maar aan die anderkant bied dit 'n ferm onderskraging van private eiedomsreg deur op die 'gewillige koper, gewillige verkoper' beginsel aan te dring. Dit maak die grondhervormings proses langer en duurder. Die hoof hipotese van die studie is: Demografiese indikatore (ras, partyaffiliasie en provinsie) beïnvloed ondersteuning of verwerpmg van die regering se grondhervormingsbeleid. Die afhanklike veranderlike IS 'ondersteuning of verwerping van die regering se grondhervormingsbeleid '. Ondersteuning van die regering se grondhervormingsbeleid dui op die liberale paradigma, en die verwerping daarvan dui op die bevrydings paradigma. Daar word bevind dat die meerderheid Suid-Afrikaners die regenng se Respondente verskil volgens ras, partyaffiliasie en provinsie. Dus, die bevrydings paradigma domineer, maar die liberale paradigma het ook 'n sterk teenwoordigheid. Dit sorg vir 'n ideologies verdeelde samelewing. Dit beteken dat die legitimiteit van Suid-Afrika se grondhervormings projek, sowel as die legitimiteit van die grondwet, in gedrang is. Dit is nie 'n goeie teken vir demokratiese konsolidasie nie, aangesien dit regsoewereiniteit in die gedrang bring. Daarom kan daar tot die gevolg gekom word dat grondhervorming nie 'n positiewe bydrae ten opsigte van die konsolidasie van Suid-Afrikaanse demokrasie sal maak nie, tensy daar 'n beduidende finansiële inspuiting gevind kan word.

On cover: Degree of Master of Philosophy in Political Management. / Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Before a country can have democracy a consolidated democracy, democracy is a prerequisite. The term democracy can be traced back to ancient Greece and the studies of the consolidation of democracy dates since the transition of the seventies. The notion of democratic consolidation has been defined by authors as a process of making new democracies secure, deepening institutions and liberties and making them immune against the threat of authoritarian regression. But authors have also found that there are socioeconomic conditions favourable to consolidation such as sufficient affluence. This study compares Botswana and South Africa's democracy, the reason being to find out which is the most consolidated and why? To compare these two countries' democracies, the study focuses on the following; affluence, institutions suitable for democracy, free and fair elections and electoral systems. There are similarities and differences between these countries. They share British parliamentary traditions. Both practice multiparty elections but neither experienced turnovers, for example; Botswana started practicing from 1965 until now, while South Africa started in 1994. The major institutional difference is the electoral system. Their ratings in the human development indexes are declining, but South Africa scores better. The other major difference is in their Freedom House ratings, where South Africa's rating is better than Botswana's. The issue of HIV/AIDS infections remains a big problem for these countries. To what extent this would impact on democracy is uncertain as little research of this kind has been done. In concluding this study, it is explicitly stated that these countries are free electoral democracies but not consolidated yet, because they have not passed Huntington's "two turnover test", and their socio-economic conditions are also problematic. At this stage, however South Africa is slightly better off for the reasons cited above. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Demokrasie is "n voorvereiste vir "n gekonsolideerde demokrasie. Hoewel die term demokrasie sy oorsprong het by die antieke Grieke dateer studies oor die konsolidasie van demokrasieë slegs terug na die sewentigerjare van die 20ste eeu. Demokratiese konsolidasie verwys na die proses waarvolgens nuwe demokrasieë na hul aanvanklike vestiging teen die gevaar van outoritêre verval beveilig word deur die daarstelling van demokratiese instellings en vryhede. Navorsing het bevind dat sekere sosio-ekonomiese faktore of omstandighede soos byvoorbeeld voldoende ekonomiese voorspoed die konsolidasie van jong demokrasieë bevorder. Die studie behels "n vergelyking van die demokrasieë van Suid-Afrika en Botswana ten opsigte van hulle graad van demokratiese konsolidasie en die redes daarvoor. Die studie fokus in die verband op aspekte soos: ekonomiese voorspoed, die demokratiese aard van hulle instellings, vrye en regverdige verkiesings en hulle kiesstelsels. Daar is beide ooreenkomste en verskille tussen die twee state. Beide is gesetel in die Britse parlementêre stelsel. Beide gebruik sedert hulle vestiging as demokrasieë veelparty vekiesings - Botswana sedert 1965 en Suid-Afrika sedert 1994. Die belangrikste institusionele verskil is in hulle kiesstelsels geleë. Hoewel die lande se klassifikasies beide in die indekse sowel as die verslae oor menslike ontwikkeling daal, vaar Suid-Afrika steeds beter as Botswana. Die duidelikste verskil is ten opsigte van hulle Freedom House klassifikasie. Die kwessie van MIVjVIGS-infeksies bly steeds "n belangrike probleem vir beide state. Vanweë die gebrek aan navorsing in die verband is dit onseker in watter mate die VIGS-kwessie demokrasie in die lande in die toekoms gaan beinvloed. Die gevolgtrekking van die tesis is dat hoewel beide state vrye demokrasieë is hulle nog nie as gekonsolideerde demokrasieë geklassifiseer kan word nie. Die gevolgtrekking is hoofsaaklik gebaseer op hulle problematiese sosioekonomiese omstandighede en die feit dat hulle nog nie Huntington se /I two turnover test" geslaag het nie. Suid-Afrika is egter op grond van die redes wat hierbo aangevoer is, tans beter as Botswana daaraan toe.

A presente dissertação tem por objeto uma análise crítica do conceito de justiça de transição. Surgida na fronteira do direito com a ciência política, a partir da década de 90 do século XX, essa expressão tem delimitado um novo campo de reflexões e uma profícua agenda de pesquisas interdisciplinares na teoria social contemporânea. Para compreendê-la devidamente, esse trabalho faz um percurso incomum nos estudos da área. De partida, para recuperar as origens mais imediatas e pouco lembradas desse conceito, procede-se a uma revisão analítica da literatura produzida por uma geração importante de cientistas políticos durante as décadas de 80 e 90, conhecida como transitologia. Essa tradição preocupavase, essencialmente, em apreender a excepcionalidade dos momentos transicionais e em evitar, a todo custo, que se consumasse uma regressão autoritária, razão pela qual recomendavam todos os tipos de cautelas e prudências possíveis aos atores políticos. Após um exame detido desse corpo teórico, destacando suas premissas e definições, bem como limitações, discute-se o que se pode considerar, nesse quadro conceitual, como uma transição justa. Esse é o germe da ideia que, posteriormente, foi recuperada e sistematizada sob o recorte temático da justiça de transição, mas já em um contexto de globalização e internacionalização dos mecanismos de proteção aos direitos humanos. A partir dessas mudanças contextuais e conceituais, torna-se então possível descrever os traços gerais da abordagem tradicional desse fenômeno, estruturada a partir de cinco eixos consagrados nessa literatura: verdade, memória, reparação, justiça e reformas das instituições. Em seguida, são repassadas uma-a-uma as principais críticas dirigidas à definição tradicional, bem como as propostas formuladas para superar as deficiências teóricas e analíticas apontadas. Por fim, depois de examinar os estágios de uma transição e os requisitos para que se consume uma consolidação democrática, questiona-se a pertinência de utilização da expressão justiça de transição para contextos em que vigoram democracias relativamente bem consolidadas. De acordo com essa tese, estrutural para essa pesquisa, o conceito de justiça de transição, por definição, carrega uma ideia de justiça excepcional e precária, a ser modulada de acordo com as possibilidades em condições adversas, que é aplicável apenas a situações de extremo conflito ou forte instabilidade política, não verificadas nos países da América Latina e do Sul da Europa atualmente. / The purpose of this dissertation is to critically analyze of the concept of transitional justice. Emerging from the intersection between Law and Political Science, from the 1990s on, this expression has defined a new field of reflections and has become a main issue in the growing interdisciplinary research agenda in contemporary social theory. To understand this concept properly, this work takes an unusual path, when compared to the studies in this area. Firstly, to retrieve the most immediate and the least remembered origins of this concept, this dissertation comes to an analytical review of the literature of an important generation of political scientists during the 80s and 90s, known as \"transitologists\". The transitology generation was concerned, essentially, with investigating the exceptionality of moments of transition and with preventing, at all cost, an authoritarian regression, which was why they recommended much caution and prudence to all political actors. After a close examination of this theoretical framework, showing its assumptions and definitions, as well its limitations, this dissertation discusses what can be considered in this conceptual framework as a fair transition. This is the embrionary idea of that was later recovered and systematized under the main theme of transitional justice, but already in a context of globalization and internationalization of the Human Rights protection mechanisms. From these contextual and conceptual changes, it has thus become possible to describe the general features of the traditional approach to this phenomenon, structured by five areas: Truth, Memory, Repair, Justice and Reform of the Institutions. The established definition is revised with the support of a critical analysis, as well as the proposals to overcome the theoretical and analytical deficiencies were pointed out. Finally, after examining the stages of a transition and the requirements for the consummation of democratic consolidation, the appropriateness of the use of the term transitional justice for contexts of relatively wellestablished democracies is discussed. According to a theory, which is essential to this research, the concept of transitional justice, by definition, carries an idea of exceptional and precarious justice to be modulated according to the possibilities of adverse conditions, which applies only to situations of extreme conflict or political instability, something that currently cannot be observed in the contexts of Latin America and Southern Europe.