A voz tem sido objeto de estudos em diferentes áreas da ciência. Nas últimas duas décadas os pesquisadores demonstraram a presença do caos na produção de voz. O objetivo deste trabalho é estabelecer padrões visuais de sinais de voz humana através da técnica não linear de reconstrução de espaço de fase e associá-los com suas correspondentes análises auditivo perceptiva e acústica. Foram analisados sinais de voz humana de sujeitos de ambos os gêneros, na faixa etária de 19 a 39 anos. Foram gravadas as vogais sustentadas /a/, /e/ e /i/ do português do Brasil, com uma taxa de amostragem de 22.050 Hz. Os sinais foram analisados a fim de obter medidas acústicas (Jitter, Shimmer e Coeficiente de Excesso). Foi utilizada a técnica de reconstrução de espaço de fase para descrever as características de dinâmica não linear dos sinais de voz, e para análise perceptivo auditiva foi utilizada a escala RASAT. Os resultados demonstram que métodos de dinâmica não linear como a reconstrução do espaço de fase, parece ser uma técnica apropriada para análise de sinais de voz, incorporando os componentes caótico e determinístico da voz humana. É sugerido que análise da dinâmica não linear não substitui as técnicas existentes, embora possa aperfeiçoar e complementar os métodos de análise disponíveis para os profissionais da saúde, como fonoaudiólogos e otorrinolaringólogos / Human voice has been the focus of study for different areas of science. Researches in the last two decades have demonstrated the existence of chaos in human voice production. The purpose of this work is to use nonlinear dynamics techniques in the analysis of normal voices from healthy subjects and correlate them to traditional acoustic parameters as well as perceptual analysis. Human voice signals from healthy subjects, both male and female, ranging in age from 19 to 39 years old were analyzed. Sustained vowel sounds /a/, /e/ and /i/, from brazilian Portuguese were recorded at a sampling rate of 22,050 Hz and analyzed in order to obtain acoustic measures (Jitter, Shimmer and coefficient of excess – EX). The phase space reconstruction technique was used to describe the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of voice signal samples. The results show, that non-linear dynamical method as phase space reconstruction seems to be a suitable technique for voice signals analysis, due to the chaotic component of the human voice. It is suggested, that non-linear dynamic analysis does not replace existing techniques instead, it may improve and complement the recent voice analysis methods available for health professionals, speech therapist and clinician

We propose a model for an insurance loss index and the claims process of a single insurance company holding a fraction of the total number of contracts that captures both ordinary losses and losses due to catastrophes. In this model we price a catastrophe derivative by the method of utility indifference pricing. The associated stochastic optimization problem is treated by techniques for piecewise deterministic Markov processes. A numerical study illustrates our results.

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo estudar a combinação de duas técnicas de planejamento em inteligência artificial: planejamento hierárquico e planejamento sob incerteza Knightiana. Cada uma delas possui vantagens distintas, mas que podem ser combinadas, permitindo um ganho de eficiência para o planejamento sob incerteza e maior robustez a planos gerados por planejadores hierárquicos. Primeiramente, estudamos um meio de efetuar uma transformação, de modo sistemático, que permite habilitar algoritmos de planejamento determinístico com busca progressiva no espaço de estados a tratar problemas com ações não-determinísticas, sem considerar a distribuição de probabilidades de efeitos das ações (incerteza Knightiana). Em seguida, esta transformação é aplicada a um algoritmo de planejamento hierárquico que efetua decomposição a partir das tarefas sem predecessoras, de modo progressivo. O planejador obtido é competitivo com planejadores que representam o estado-da-arte em planejamento sob incerteza, devido à informação adicional que pode ser fornecida ao planejador, na forma de métodos de decomposição de tarefas. / This dissertation\'s objective is to study the combination of two artificial intelligence planning techniques, namely: hierarchical planning and planning under Knightian uncertainty. Each one of these has distinct advantages, but they can be combined, allowing the planning under uncertainty a performance gain and giving the hierarchical planning the ability to produce more robust plans. First, we study a way of performing a transformation, in a sistematic way, that enables forward-chaining deterministic planning algorithms to deal with non-deterministic actions, that doesn\'t take into account the probability distribution of actions\' effects (Knightian uncertainty). Afterwards, this transformation is applied to a hierarchical planning algorithm that progressively performs decomposition starting from tasks without predecessors. The obtained planner is competitive with state-of-the-art non-deterministic planners, thanks to the additional information that can be given to the planner, in the form of task decomposition methods.

Les infections à Papillomavirus Humain (HPV) sont des infections sexuellement transmissibles très fréquentes. La persistance de ces infections est un facteur causal du cancer du col de l’utérus et est aussi à l’origine d’autres cancers de la zone ano-génitale et de verrues génitales chez les femmes et chez les hommes. Depuis l’introduction de deux vaccins bivalent et quadrivalent permettant de prévenir certains types d’HPV, de nombreux modèles mathématiques ont été développés afin d’estimer l’impact potentiel de différentes stratégies de vaccination. L’objectif de ce travail de thèse a été d’estimer l’impact potentiel de la vaccination en France sur l’incidence de certains cancers liés à l’HPV, notamment le cancer du col de l’utérus et le cancer anal chez les femmes françaises ; ainsi que sur la prévalence des infections à HPV 6/11/16/18. Différents modèles dynamiques de type déterministe ont été développés. Ils sont représentés par des systèmes d’équations différentielles ordinaires. Une étude théorique du comportement asymptotique d’un premier modèle comportant peu de strates a été réalisée. Le nombre de reproduction de base R0 et le nombre de reproduction avec vaccination Rv ont été estimés. Des modèles plus complexes ont intégré une structure d’âge et de comportement sexuel. Les modélisations réalisées permettent de conclure à l’impact important de la vaccination sur la prévalence des infections à HPV et sur l’incidence des cancers du col de l’utérus et de la zone anale chez les femmes françaises dans un délai de quelques décennies, si l’on prend en compte les taux de vaccination observés en France au début de la campagne de vaccination / Human Papillomavirus infection (HPV) is the most frequent sexually transmitted disease. Epidemiological studies have established a causal relationship between HPV infections and occurence of cervical cancer. These infections have also been incriminated in anogenital cancers and anogenital warts among women and men. Since the introduction of bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines which offer protection against some HPV genotypes, many mathematical models have been developed in order to assess the potential impact of vaccine strategies. The aim of this thesis work was to assess the potential impact of HPV vaccination in France on the incidence of some cancers linked with HPV, particularly cervical cancer and anal cancer in French women, and on the prevalence of HPV 6/11/16/18 infections. Different deterministic dynamic models have been developped. They are represented by systems of ordinary differential equations. A theoretical analysis of the asymptotic behavior for a first model with few strata is realized. The basic reproduction number R0 and the vaccinated reproduction number Rv are assessed. More complex models taking into account age and sexual behavior have been developed. Using vaccination rates observed in France at the launch of the vaccination campaign, our modeling shows the large impact of vaccination on HPV prevalences, on cervical cancer and anal cancer incidences among French women within a few decades

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2016-02-18T07:02:36Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Márcio Rodrigues da Cunha Reis - 2014.pdf: 19219511 bytes, checksum: 8b91b891ec367ebc7de924c8b641876c (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2016-02-18T07:04:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Márcio Rodrigues da Cunha Reis - 2014.pdf: 19219511 bytes, checksum: 8b91b891ec367ebc7de924c8b641876c (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-18T07:04:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Márcio Rodrigues da Cunha Reis - 2014.pdf: 19219511 bytes, checksum: 8b91b891ec367ebc7de924c8b641876c (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-10-06 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos- Finep / This paper presents a comparative analysis of some methodologies for deterministic and heuristic optimization, applied to a classic problem in control theory. The aim is to determine the parameters tuning Proportional and Integral (PI) controller. The PI controller is used to control the speed of the DC motor. The mathematical model of the DC motor and the independent excitation of the AC-DC converter that is used in driving it is developed. From the mathematical model, the computational model is developed to perform the analysis of a commercial DC motor. In order to validate the computational model, a training bench is built, tests are performed and the results of the comparison between the methods of optimization are presented. / Este trabalho apresenta a an alise comparativa de algumas metodologias de otimiza- c~ao determin stica e heur stica, aplicadas a um problema cl assico da teoria de controle. O intuito e determinar os par^ametros de sintonia do controlador Proporcional e Integral (PI). O controlador PI e utilizado para controlar a velocidade do motor de corrente cont nua. E desenvolvido o modelo matem atico do motor de corrente cont nua de excita c~ao independente e do conversor CA-CC que e utilizado em seu acionamento. A partir do modelo matem atico, e desenvolvido o modelo computacional, para realizar a an alise de um motor CC comercial. A m de validar o modelo computacional, uma bancada did atica e constru da, ensaios s~ao realizados e os resultados da compara c~ao entre os m etodos de otimiza c~ao s~ao apresentados.

The effects of winds and/or waves on ship motions, forces, moments, maneuverability and controllability are investigated with URANS computations. The air/water flow computations employ a semi-coupled approach in which water is not affected by air, but air is computed assuming the free surface as a moving immersed boundary. The exact potential solution of waves/wind problem is modified introducing a logarithmic blending in air, and imposed as boundary and initial conditions. The turbulent air flows over 2D water waves are studied to investigate the effects of waves on incoming wind flow. Ship airwake computations are performed with different wind speeds and directions for static drift and dynamic PMM in calm water, pitch and heave in regular waves, and 6DOF motions in irregular waves simulating hurricane CAMILLE. Ship airwake analyses show that the vortical structures evolve due to ship motions and affect the ship dynamics significantly. Strong hurricane head and following winds affect up to 28% the resistance and 7% the motions. Beam winds have most significant effects causing considerable roll motion and drift forces, affecting the controllability of the ship. A harmonic wave group single run seakeeping procedure is developed, validated and compared with regular wave and transient wave group procedures. The regular wave procedure requires multiple runs, whereas single run procedures obtain the RAOs for a range of frequencies at a fixed speed, assuming linear ship response. The transient wave group procedure provides continuous RAOs, while the harmonic wave group procedure obtains discrete transfer functions, but without focusing. Verification and validation studies are performed for transient wave group procedure. Validation is achieved at the average interval of 9.54 (%D). Comparisons of the procedures show that harmonic wave group is the most efficient, saving 75.8% on the computational cost compared to regular wave procedure. Error values from all procedures are similar at 4 (%D). Harmonic wave group procedure is validated for a wide range of Froude numbers, with satisfactory results. Deterministic wave groups are used for three sisters rogue waves modeling. A 6DOF ship simulation is demonstrated which shows total loss of controllability with extreme ship motions, accelerations and structural loads.

[pt] Os projetos geotécnicos são, em geral, avaliados através do cálculo de um coeficiente de segurança, obtido de forma determinística. A presente pesquisa tem como objetivo a comparação de dois métodos probabilísticos (Estimativas Pontuais e Segundo Momento) empregados em análises de estabilidade. Os métodos probabilísticos quantificam as incertezas oriundas da variabilidade dos parâmetros geotécnicos, calculando-se um índice de confiabilidade (beta), que expressa o quanto o fator de segurança é confiável. No entanto, o índice b é um parâmetro relativo, pois não exprime todas as incertezas contidas em um projeto geotécnico. O trabalho apresenta uma comparação das análises probabilísticas de estabilidade da barragem de Curuá-Una, no Pará, e de um muro de arrimo, em São Fidélis, no Estado do Rio de Janeiro. No caso da barragem, estudou-se a influência de um eventual aumento no nível d´água do reservatório no cálculo da probabilidade de ruptura. Para o muro, foram consideradas diversas alturas do nível d´água no retroaterro a montante. As análises enfocaram, ainda, detalhes dos métodos probabilísticos, no que se refere à aplicabilidade para projetos práticos. Verificou-se que o método do Segundo Momento é de mais fácil utilização em geotecnia. Recomenda-se, portanto, a sua aplicação em conjunto com as análises determinísticas, mais usuais na prática. / [en] Geotechnical projects are generaly assessed through the calculus of the safety factor obtained by deterministic methodologies. The purpose of the present research work is to compare two probabilistic methods (Estimate Punctual and Second Moment) employed in stability analyses. Probabilistic methods quantify the uncertainties derived from the variability of geotechnical parameters, calculating a confidence ratio that expresses how reliable the safety factor is. However, the ratio is a relative parameter, since it does not account for all the uncertainties contained in a geotechnical project. In view of this situation, the study compares the stability probabilistic analyses of Curuá-Una dam, in Pará, and those of a retaining wall in São Fidélis, Rio de Janeiro. Regarding the dam, the influence of a possible rise in the resevoir water level in the calculus of failure probability has been investigated. In respect to the wall, several water levels have been considered in the upstream backfill. Moreover, the analyses have focused on the details of probabilistic methods and their application to practical projects. It has been verified that the Second Moment Method is more easily employed in geothecnics. Therefore, it is recommended that it should be applied together with the deterministic analyses currently used in practice.

The handling of variability effects in structural models is a natural and necessary extension of deterministic analysis techniques. In the context of finite element and uncertainty modelling, the stochastic finite element method (SFEM), grouping the perturbation SFEM, the spectral SFEM and the Monte-Carlo simulation, has by far received the major attention. <br> The present work focuses on second moment approaches, in which the first two statistical moments of the structural response are estimated. Due to its efficiency for handling problems involving low variability levels, the perturbation method is selected for characterising the propagation of the parameter variability from an uncertain dynamic model to its structural response. A dynamic model excited by a time-harmonic loading is postulated and the extension of the perturbation SFEM to the frequency domain is provided. This method complements the deterministic analysis by a sensitivity analysis of the system response with respect to a finite set of random parameters and a response surface in terms of a Taylor series expansion truncated to the first or second order is built. Taking into account the second moment statistical data of the random design properties, the response sensitivities are appropriately condensed in order to obtain an estimation of the response mean value and covariance structure. <br> In order to handle a wide definition of variability, a computational tool is made available that is able to deal with material variability sources (material random variables and fields) as well as shape uncertainty sources. This second case requires an appropriate shape parameterisation and a shape design sensitivity analysis. The computational requirements of the tool are studied and optimised, by reducing the size of the random dimension of the problem and by improving the performances of the underlying deterministic analyses. In this context, modal approaches, which are known to provide efficient alternatives to direct approaches in frequency domain analyses, are developed. An efficient hybrid procedure, coupling the perturbation and the Monte-Carlo simulation SFEM, is proposed and analysed. <br> Finally, the developed methods are validated, by resorting mainly to the Monte-Carlo simulation technique, on different numerical applications: a cantilever beam structure, a plate bending problem (involving a 3-dimensional model), an articulated truss structure and a problem involving a plate with a random flatness default. The propagation of the model uncertainty in the response FRFs and the effects involved by random field modelling are examined. Some remarks are stated pertaining to the influence of the parameter PDF in simulation-based methods. <br> <br> La gestion de la variabilité présente dans les modèles structuraux est une extension naturelle et nécessaire des techniques de calcul déterministes. En incorporant la modélisation de l'incertitude dans le calcul aux éléments finis, la méthode des éléments finis stochastiques (groupant l'approche perturbative, l'approche spectrale et la technique de simulation Monte-Carlo) a reçu une large attention de la littérature scientifique. <br> Ce travail est orienté sur les approches dites de second moment, dans lesquelles les deux premiers moments statistiques de la réponse de la structure sont estimés. De par son aptitude à traiter des problèmes caractérisés par de faibles niveaux de variabilité, la méthode perturbative est choisie pour propager la variabilité des paramètres d'un modèle dynamique incertain sur sa réponse. Un modèle sous chargement dynamique harmonique est supposé et l'extension dans le domaine fréquentiel de l'approche perturbative est établie. Cette méthode complète l'analyse déterministe par une analyse de sensibilité de la réponse du système par rapport à un ensemble fini de variables aléatoires. Une surface de réponse en termes d'un développement de Taylor tronqué au premier ou second ordre peut alors être écrit. Les sensibilités de la réponse sont enfin condensées, en tenant compte des propriétés statistiques des paramètres de design aléatoires, pour obtenir une estimation de la valeur moyenne et de la structure de covariance de la réponse. <br> Un outil de calcul est développé avec la capacité de gestion d'une définition large de la variabilité: sources de variabilité matérielle (variables et champs aléatoires) ainsi que géométrique. Cette dernière source requiert une paramétrisation adéquate de la géométrie ainsi qu'une analyse de sensibilité à des paramètres de forme. Les exigences calcul de cet outil sont étudiées et optimisées, en réduisant la dimension aléatoire du problème et en améliorant les performances des analyses déterministes sous-jacentes. Dans ce contexte, des approches modales, fournissant une alternative efficace aux approches directes dans le domaine fréquentiel, sont dérivées. Une procédure hybride couplant la méthode perturbative et la technique de simulation Monte-Carlo est proposée et analysée. <br> Finalement, les méthodes étudiées sont validées, principalement sur base de résultats de simulations Monte-Carlo. Ces résultats sont relatifs à plusieurs applications numériques: une structure poutre-console, un problème de flexion de plaque (modèle tridimensionnel), une structure en treillis articulé et un problème de plaque présentant un défaut de planéité aléatoire. La propagation de l'incertitude du modèle dans les fonctions de réponse fréquentielle ainsi que les effets propres à la modélisation par champs aléatoires sont examinés. Quelques remarques relatives à l'influence de la loi de distribution des paramètres dans les méthodes de simulation sont évoquées.

This dissertation focuses on predictability problems regarding the behaviour of the professional librarians in public-, school- and research libraries in specific crucial situations. The material was obtained by observations/participations (over 10 years) in the daily work in Swedish libraries by non-structured interviews and “free” discussions with librarians and library visitors. Over 200 interviews with 87 librarians and over 300 discussions with 261 library visitors are the fundament of the empirical basis of my study. These findings build up a theoretical basis (a heuristic model) grounded in ideas of deterministic chaos and complexity theory. Deterministic means, that the current state is the consequence of its preceding states, in my terms, the corporate memory in organizations. Chaotic means the sensitivity of initial condition. Deterministic chaos describes behaviour which satisfies the conditions of determinism but even shows the characteristics of chaos. The study shows that differences between the behaviour of the librarians and the predictions of the behaviour in crucial situations from the political leadership are essentially grounded in ·The history of Swedish libraries (deterministic rationality and self-rationality). ·The asymmetric information between librarians and politicians. ·Self-organization of librarians in the daily work. ·The “free” will of librarians in crucial situations grounded in the philosophy of Kant. The behaviour I could observe was studied in the following situations: ·The demand of a law, which secures the existence of public- and school libraries. ·The selection, development and installation of appropriate computer based information systems in public- school- and research libraries. ·The GÖK- and KUR-projects, which was based on the assumption that new ways to work with the daily patterns in libraries should open the library for more visitors, book loaners and information seekers. The issues discussed in this dissertation gave the following results: ·That the long time, in many cases even short time, unpredictability of librarian behaviour in for the library crucial situations is not only understandable – but also necessary for the development of the library. ·That the deterministic chaotic behaviour of the librarians is generated by self-rationality, asymmetric information, and self-organization. ·That the library is not a chaotic organization but a deterministic chaotic organization. Further I could see tendencies for the same behaviour in other professional, knowledge based Non Profit Organizations like schools, universities and hospitals.

In the past, transportation related economic analysis has considered agency related costs only. However, transportation managers are moving towards more holistic economic analysis including road user and environmental costs and benefits. In particular, transportation air pollution is causing increasing harm to health and the environment. Transport managers are now considering related emissions in transport economical analyses, and have established strategies to help meet Kyoto Protocol targets, which specified a fifteen percent reduction in Canada's emissions related to 1990 levels within 2008-2012.<p>The objectives of this research are to model heavy vehicle emissions using a emissions computer model which is able to assess various transport applications, and help improve holistic economic transport modeling. Two case studies were evaluated with the model developed.<p>Firstly, the environmental benefits of deploying weigh-in-motion systems at weigh stations to pre-sort heavy vehicles and reduce delays were assessed. The second case study evaluates alternative truck sizes and road upgrades within short heavy oilfield haul in Western Canada. <p>The model developed herein employed a deterministic framework from a sensitivity analysis across independent variables, which identified the most sensitive variables to primary field state conditions. The variables found to be significant included idling time for the weigh-in-motion case study, road stiffness and road grades for the short heavy haul oilfield case study.<p>According to this research, employing WIM at weigh stations would reduce annual Canadian transportation CO₂ emissions by nearly 228 kilo tonnes, or 1.04 percent of the Canadian Kyoto Protocol targets. Regarding direct fuel savings, WIM would save from 90 to 190 million litres of fuel annually, or between $59 and $190 million of direct operating costs.<p>Regarding the short heavy oil haul case study, increasing allowable heavy vehicle sizes while upgrading roads could decrease the annual emissions, the fuel consumption, and their associated costs by an average of 68 percent. Therefore, this could reduce each rural Saskatchewan municipality's annual CO₂ emissions from 13 to 26.7-kilo tonnes, which translates to 0.06 and 0.12 percent of the Canadian Kyoto Protocol targets or between $544,000 and $ 1.1 million annually. <p>Based on these results, the model demonstrates its functionality, and was successfully applied to two typical transportation field state applications. The model generated emissions savings results that appear to be realistic, in terms of potential Kyoto targets, as well as users cost reductions and fuel savings.