<p dir="ltr">The transportation sector accounts for the most greenhouse gas emissions among all economic sectors. Thus, making our transportation systems sustainable is crucial for achieving the national 2050 net-zero emission goal. This thesis aims to explore the application of cutting-edge technologies for advancing sustainable transportation. A framework that analyzes technologies and their potential applications across different transportation modes and scales is proposed and demonstrated through two case studies.</p><p dir="ltr">The first case study focuses on developing a digital twin-based cooperative driving system for Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) at roundabouts. An experiment conducted in a digital twin simulation environment shows that the cooperative driving system reduces emissions and energy consumption significantly while enhancing safety and maintaining efficiency.</p><p dir="ltr">The second case study proposed a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)-based prediction structure to iteratively predict future flight demand with historical data and future population and personal income data. Compared with Terminal Area Forecasting (TAF) projection data, the difference in the year 2050 is only around 8%. Ultimately, the applications of future aviation fuel demand estimation and future Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) distribution strategy exploration are showcased, leveraging the prediction result of the flight demand in 2050.</p><p dir="ltr">Through the two case studies, the thesis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework and reveals the significant potential of cutting-edge technologies, such as digital twin, CAVs, and SAF, in achieving sustainability in the transportation sector. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers to promote innovation and application of sustainable transportation technologies and ultimately achieve the net-zero emission goal.</p>

Agricultural intensification has deeply altered European agroecosystems, leading to the loss of traditional farming practices and the homogenisation of agricultural landscapes in the past decades. These changes are causing dramatic losses in farmland biodiversity across the continent. Agri-Environment Measures (AEM, an umbrella term for Agri-Environmental Schemes, Ecological Focus Areas and organic farming) are the main policy instruments of the European Common Agricultural Policy to counteract this crisis, but their efficacy is recurrently questioned. A systematic monitoring and assessment of AEM efficacy at the European level is lacking, and is hindered by data gaps on biodiversity and field-level land-use/land-management practices. The overarching objectives of this thesis were (1) to improve our understanding of the varying effectiveness of AEM and (2) to develop robust biodiversity model workflows for policy impact assessment based on pre-collected biodiversity data. I combined field-level data on land use and AEM adoption from the Integrated Administration and Control System with geodata on climate, topography and land cover for three agricultural regions in Europe: the Mulde River Basin in Germany, Catalonia in Spain and South Moravia in the Czech Republic. I used synthetic biodiversity data as well as bird occurrence data to investigate drivers of variation in reported modelled biodiversity responses to AEM: (1) the use of different land-use intensity (LUI) metrics, (2) the types of AEM and their species-specific scale of effect, and (3) the structural complexity of the surrounding landscape across different regions. I first used a virtual species approach to test how to comprehensively quantify LUI, and its effects on biodiversity, in spatially-explicit models. Further, I developed open-source modelling workflows to synthesise empirical evidence across different species and regions, using pre-collected bird observations from (sub)national databases combining multiple sources. The results of this thesis indicate that a multidimensional representation of LUI is crucial to accurately assess species-environment (and specifically species-AEM) relationships in agricultural landscapes. I found that increasing areas of fallow land, buffer areas and extensive grassland management were positively related to bird occurrences across most of the modelled farmland species in the Mulde River Basin. Different AEM had different spatial scales of effect, implying that a landscape-level perspective is needed to optimise the spatial targeting of AEM in a given region. Furthermore, when focusing on the red-backed shrike (Lanius collurio) as a model species, positive relationships between its occurrence and the area of extensive grassland management were stronger in structurally simpler landscapes (compared to complex ones) in Catalonia. However, there was no evidence of similarly landscape-mediated effects in the Mulde River Basin and in South Moravia. Regional differences may be due to baseline differences in LUI and landscape heterogeneity, or to differential resource selection by the species across its geographical range. These findings show that policy-makers need to regionally set clear conservation goals, as species’ responses to AEM vary across species and landscapes. The spatial targeting of AEM needs to be improved based on a region-specific understanding of how context-dependent factors such as landscape complexity moderate species responses to AEM. Future research in this area would greatly benefit from an increased accessibility of existing EU data on agricultural land use and land management. Technological advances in environmental and biodiversity monitoring provide new opportunities for improved spatial modelling, with increased spatio-temporal resolution, encompassing larger regions and more taxa. This knowledge will be crucial in informing the future design of EU rural policies, which should allow for regionally-targeted solutions while also pursuing transboundary management objectives for the conservation of species across borders. / Die Intensivierung der Landwirtschaft hat die Agrarökosysteme Europas tiefgreifend verändert und in den letzten Jahrzehnten zum Verlust traditioneller Anbaumethoden und zur Homogenisierung der Agrarlandschaften geführt. Diese Veränderungen führen zu einem dramatischen Verlust der Biodiversität in der Landwirtschaft auf dem gesamten Kontinent. Agrarumweltmaßnahmen (AEM, ein Sammelbegriff für Agrarumwelt- und Klimamaßnahmen, ökologische Vorrangflächen und den ökologischen Landbau) sind die wichtigsten Instrumente der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik der EU, um dieser Krise entgegenzuwirken. Ihre Wirksamkeit wird jedoch immer wieder in Frage gestellt. Ein systematisches Monitoring und eine konsistente Evaluierung der Wirksamkeit von AEM auf europäischer Ebene fehlen und werden durch Datenlücken zur biologischen Vielfalt und zu Landnutzungs- und Bewirtschaftungspraktiken auf Schlagebene erschwert. Die übergreifenden Ziele dieser Dissertation waren (1) die Verbesserung unseres Verständnisses der unterschiedlichen Wirksamkeit von AEM und (2) die Entwicklung robuster Workflows für die Biodiversitätsmodellierung zur Nutzung in der Politikfolgenabschätzung auf Basis von zuvor erhobenen Biodiversitätsdaten. Ich habe Daten auf Feldebene über die Landnutzung und Implementierung von AEM aus dem Integrierten Verwaltungs- und Kontrollsystem mit Geodaten über Klima, Topographie und Landbedeckung für drei landwirtschaftliche Regionen in Europa kombiniert: das Mulde-Einzugsgebiet in Deutschland, Katalonien in Spanien und Südmähren in der Tschechischen Republik. Ich habe simulierte Biodiversitätsdaten sowie Beobachtungsdaten zum Vorkommen von Vögeln verwendet, um die folgenden ursächlichen Faktoren für festgestellte Unterschiede in den modellierten Zusammenhängen zwischen Biodiversität und AEM zu untersuchen: (1) Nutzung verschiedener Metriken zur Quantifizierung der Landnutzungsintensität (LUI), (2) Arten von AEM und ihr artspezifischer Einfluss auf verschiedenen räumlichen Skalen, und (3) strukturelle Komplexität der umgebenden Landschaft in verschiedenen Regionen. Ich habe zunächst einen Ansatz mit virtuellen Arten verwendet, um zu testen, wie sich die LUI und ihre Auswirkungen auf die biologische Vielfalt in räumlich expliziten Modellen umfassend quantifizieren lassen. Darüber hinaus habe ich Open-Source-Workflows entwickelt, um empirisches Wissen über verschiedene Arten und Regionen hinweg zu aggregieren, indem ich vorhandene Vogelbeobachtungen aus (sub)nationalen Datenbanken mit mehreren Quellen kombiniert habe. Die Ergebnisse dieser Dissertation zeigen, dass eine mehrdimensionale Darstellung der LUI entscheidend ist, um die Beziehungen zwischen Arten und Umwelt (und insbesondere zwischen Arten und AEM) in Agrarlandschaften genau zu bewerten. Ich fand heraus, dass die Zunahme von Brachen, Pufferflächen und extensivem Grünland positiv mit dem Vorkommen der meisten modellierten Feldvogelarten im Muldeeinzugsgebiet verbunden war. Die jeweiligen AEM hatten, je nach räumliche Skala, unterschiedliche Auswirkungen, was bedeutet, dass eine Perspektive auf Landschaftsebene erforderlich ist, um die räumliche Verteilung von AEM in einer bestimmten Region zu optimieren. Wenn man sich auf den Neuntöter (Lanius collurio) als Modellart konzentriert, waren die positiven Beziehungen zwischen seinem Vorkommen und der Fläche mit extensiver Grünlandbewirtschaftung in strukturell einfacheren Landschaften (im Vergleich zu komplexeren) in Katalonien stärker. Im Einzugsgebiet der Mulde und in Südmähren gab es jedoch keine Hinweise auf ähnliche durch die Landschaftskomplexität bedingte Effekte. Diese festgestellten regionalen Unterschiede könnten auf unterschiedliche LUI und Landschaftsheterogenität oder auf eine unterschiedliche Ressourcenauswahl durch die Art in ihrem geographischen Verbreitungsgebiet zurückzuführen sein. Diese Ergebnisse zeigen, dass durch politische Entscheidungsträger:innen auf regionaler Ebene klare Biodiversitätsziele festgelegt werden müssen, da die Reaktionen von Arten auf AEM je nach Art und Landschaft unterschiedlich sind. Die räumliche Verteilung von AEM muss auf der Grundlage eines regionalspezifischen Verständnisses der Art und Weise verbessert werden, wie kontextabhängige Faktoren (wie beispielsweise die Komplexität der Landschaft) die Reaktionen der Arten auf AEM beeinflussen. Zukünftige Forschung in diesem Bereich würde stark von einem einfacheren Zugang zu verfügbaren EU-weiten Daten über agrarische Landnutzung und Bewirtschaftung stark profitieren. Technologische Fortschritte im Umwelt- und Biodiversitätsmonitoring bieten neue Möglichkeiten für eine verbesserte räumliche Modellierung, mit höherer raum-zeitlicher Auflösung, die größere Regionen und mehr Taxa umfasst. Dieses Wissen wird von entscheidender Bedeutung für die künftige Gestaltung der EU-Agrarpolitik sein, die regional ausgerichtete Lösungen ermöglichen und gleichzeitig grenzüberschreitende Managementziele für den Artenschutz verfolgen sollte.

Thesis advisor: Henry I. Braun / Secondary analyses of international large-scale assessments (ILSA) commonly characterize relationships between variables of interest using correlations. However, the accuracy of correlation estimates is impaired by artefacts such as measurement error and clustering. Despite advancements in methodology, conventional correlation estimates or statistical models not addressing this problem are still commonly used when analyzing ILSA data. This dissertation examines the impact of both the clustered nature of the data and heterogeneous measurement error on the correlations reported between background data and proficiency scales across countries participating in ILSA. In this regard, the operating characteristics of competing modeling techniques are explored by means of applications to data from PISA 2012. Specifically, the estimates of correlations between math self-efficacy and math achievement across countries are the principal focus of this study. Sequentially employing four different statistical techniques, a step-wise model refinement approach is used. After each step, the changes in the within-country correlation estimates are examined in relation to (i) the heterogeneity of distributions, (ii) the amount of measurement error, (iii) the degree of clustering, and (iv) country-level math performance. The results show that correlation estimates gathered from two-dimensional IRT models are more similar across countries in comparison to conventional and multilevel linear modeling estimates. The strength of the relationship between math proficiency and math self-efficacy is moderated by country mean math proficiency and this was found to be consistent across all four models even when measurement error and clustering were taken into account. Multilevel multidimensional mixture IRT modeling results support the hypothesis that low-performing groups within countries have a lower correlation between math self-efficacy and math proficiency. A weaker association between math self-efficacy and math proficiency in lower achieving groups is consistently seen across countries. A multilevel mixture IRT modeling approach sheds light on how this pattern emerges from greater randomness in the responses of lower performing groups. The findings from this study demonstrate that advanced modeling techniques not only are more appropriate given the characteristics of the data, but also provide greater insight about the patterns of relationships across countries. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2021. / Submitted to: Boston College. Lynch School of Education. / Discipline: Educational Research, Measurement and Evaluation.

Prédire les réponses de la biodiversité aux changements climatiques anthropiques est devenu un champ de recherche avec des enjeux scientifiques et sociétaux majeurs. Mon travail de thèse a consisté à évaluer les impacts du réchauffement climatique sur un parasitoïde de drosophiles, Leptopilina boulardi, à une petite échelle géographique, le sud-est de la France. L'objectif était non seulement d'examiner l'évolution de la distribution du parasitoïde en réponse à une hausse des températures qu'il fallait préciser à cette échelle géographique, mais aussi d'appréhender les adaptations mises en place dans la zone de progression de l'espèce. Dans un premier temps, l'analyse de données d'échantillonnages et de données météorologiques m'ont permis de mettre en évidence une rapide expansion de l'aire de répartition du parasitoïde vers le nord, à un taux moyen de 90km/décennie, simultanément à une augmentation moyenne de la température de 1,57°C ces 30 dernières années, dans l'aire d'étude. Après avoir identifié les principaux facteurs environnementaux, structurant la répartition spatiale de L. boulardi, j'ai modélisé sa distribution potentielle dans le sud-est de la France, sous conditions climatiques actuelles et pour 2050, pour deux scénarios d'émission de CO2. En 2050, la distribution géographique de L. boulardi devrait considérablement s'étendre vers le nord sous l'effet des changements climatiques. Ensuite, en mesurant plusieurs traits d'histoire de vie selon 4 régimes thermiques fluctuants, j'ai montré que les populations de L. boulardi situées en limite d'aire de répartition sont génétiquement différenciées de celles situées dans l'aire centrale de répartition. Le fait que les populations marginales aient une valeur sélective plus importante à faible température suggère une adaptation locale des parasitoïdes dans la zone de progression de l'aire de répartition. La dernière partie de ce travail de thèse a pour objectif de mieux comprendre le processus de colonisation de L. boulardi. Pour cela, j'ai entrepris le développement de marqueurs RAD-sequencing sur 15 populations de cette espèce, distribuées le long d'un cline de latitude dans le sud-est de la France. Les nombreuses données issues du séquençage Illumina me permettront de connaître la structuration génétique de ces populations. L'ensemble de ces résultats obtenus au cours de ma thèse révèlent la force avec laquelle les changements climatiques peuvent impacter les espèces, principalement celles de haut niveau trophique, en provoquant des changements très rapide de distribution et des modifications génotypiques et phénotypiques permettant une meilleure adaptation locale / Predicting biodiversity responses to anthropogenic climate change has become a field of research with major scientific and societal issues. The main goal of my thesis was to evaluate the impacts of global warming on a Drosophila parasitoid, Leptopilina boulardi, at a small geographical scale, the South-East of France. The aim was not only to examine the change in the distribution of the parasitoid in response to rising temperatures, but also to understand the adaptations associated with this change. First, the analysis of insect sampling and meteorological data allowed me to demonstrate a rapid expansion of the parasitoid range to the north with an average rate of 90km/decade as well as a simultaneous temperature increase of 1.57°C on average over the past 30 years in the studied area. Following the identification of the main environmental factors structuring the spatial distribution of L. boulardi, I fitted a model predicting its potential distribution in the south-east of France, under the current climate and in 2050, for two CO2 emission scenarios. In 2050, the geographical distribution of L. boulardi should significantly extend northward as a result of climate change. Then, by measuring several life history traits under four fluctuating temperature regimes, I have shown that populations of L. boulardi located on the border of the range are genetically differentiated from those in the central range. The fact that marginal populations have a greater fitness at low temperature suggests local adaptation of parasitoids in the area of progression of range. The last part of this thesis aimed to better understand the process of colonization of L. boulardi. For this, I undertook the development of RAD-sequencing markers to genotype 15 populations of this species distributed along a cline of latitude in the southeast of France. Numerous data from Illumina sequencing will allow me to characterize the genetic structure of the populations. All the results obtained in my thesis highlight the force with which climate change may impact species, in particular those of high trophic level, causing rapid changes in distribution along with genotypic and phenotypic changes underlying local adaptation

Face à l’érosion globale de la biodiversité des écosystèmes aquatiques continentaux, l’identification des mesures de gestion les plus urgentes à mettre en place est cruciale. En s’appuyant sur une approche innovante et multi-facettes de la diversité, les priorités de conservation pour les assemblages de poissons de rivière ont pu être déterminées à l’échelle de la France. La durabilité de ces priorités de conservation face aux principales composantes des changements globaux a ensuite été évaluée afin d’identifier les zones qui protégeront efficacement la biodiversité actuelle dans le futur. La méthodologie développée a finalement été appliquée au réseau hydrographique du département du Pas-de-Calais dans le but d’identifier précisément les priorités locales de conservation et de restauration. Ces outils pourront par la suite être utilisés comme support d’aide à la décision et adaptés selon les besoins des gestionnaires des milieux aquatiques. / The global loss of biodiversity affects freshwater ecosystems, making it crucial to identify the priority management actions in order to protect freshwater biodiversity in an effective and sustainable way. Based on an innovative multi-faceted framework of diversity, the spatial priorities for the conservation of stream fish assemblages have been identified at the scale of France. Their robustness to several drivers of global changes has then been assessed to identify the areas that are likely to efficiently protect the present-day biodiversity in the future. The methodological framework proposed herein has finally been applied to the river network of the Pas-de-Calais department located in northern France to accurately identify the local conservation and restoration priorities. These management tools can be used to support the establishment of management actions in accordance with the needs of the local environmental decision-makers.

The physical explanation for the existence of the galactic warp is one of the major research areas in Astronomy. People have proposed various theories but nobody has yet given a convincing explanation. Most of the spiral galaxies are observed to be warped which reveals that the galactic warp is a stable characteristic. In the theory of kinematic bending wave, warp is considered as a wave that is propagated through the galactic disk with a speed called pattern speed. If the pattern initially had straight line of nodes, according to bending wave theory, the warp would tend to wind up rapidly in the gravitational field of galactic disk. But still we observe warped galaxies in the sky. In the literature, it has been claimed that the winding problem of galactic warp may be solved by incorporating the effect of gravitational field of the dark matter halo in which the galactic disk is embedded. Recently some works on the dynamics of galactic disk claim that the shape of the dark matter halo is pro late spheroid. In this thesis, the effect of the gravitational field of a prolate spheroidal dark matter halo with varying eccentricity to the galactic warp is calculated and discussed. Chapter1 gives the general introduction of the topics discussed in the following chapters. The structure of the spiral galaxy, their classifications, and the disk dynamics are discussed in the first few sections. One of the revolutionary concepts that emerged in the previous century was the existence of the dark matter. Presently tracing the mass distribution and the constituent particles of dark matter is one of the major research areas in theoretical and experimental physics. In this thesis, the effect of a particular type of mass distribution in dark matter halo on the warp is discussed in detail. In the next few sections, the following topics are discussed namely; how the concept of dark matter came into astrophysics, how to measure the total mass inside a given radius and what are the different distributions used for various purposes. A new theory called Modified Newtonian Mechanism was also proposed in the previous century as an alternative to the dark matter concept which is also discussed briefly. Kinematic bending wave theory and the winding problem of the galactic warp is also discussed in detail. In the last section a relation between the pattern speed of the warp and the shape of the dark matter halo is obtained. The calculation of the potential of a prolate spheroidal mass distribution with varying eccentricity is not done in any literature as we know. The calculation of the potential and the patten speed of prolate spheroidal mass distributions and of the galactic disk are described in chapter 2. The calculations of oblate spheroidal mass distribution are also discussed in this chapter but that is out of main theme. In chapter 3 we apply the equations obtained in the Chapter 2 to one simple toy model and to the Galaxy. The rotation curve and the pattern speed of a warp in the gravitational field of prolate spheroidal mass distribution of varying eccentricity are described. Usually the Milky Way disk is treated as an in infinitesimally thin disk but for our calculations the three dimensional but thin disk is used. The usually people use some approximation to calculate the potential due to galactic infinitesimal thin disk. The difference of the work from earlier works done by different people(with the approximation mentioned in above line) is also discussed in this Chapter. Chapter 4 discusses the summary of the entire work.

La zone économique exclusive Mauritanienne est le siège d’upwelling et constitue une zone de transition où cohabitent des espèces d’affinités tempérée et tropicale. Pour comprendre le comportement spatio-temporel des assemblages démersaux du point de vue de leur composition, structuration, distribution de probabilité et diversité face aux préoccupations écologiques. Les facteurs abiotiques contribuent à la structuration des assemblages démersaux persistants au cours du temps. Les effets de la pêche étaient relativement faibles. Les trajectoires temporelles entre les assemblages et les conditions environnementales ont été mises en évidence pour certaines années et des zones. Dans les types d’habitats, un groupe minoritaire d’espèces très agrégatives obéissant au modèle de distribution en log-séries de Fisher et un autre majoritaire peu ou pas du tout agrégatives obéissant au modèle de distribution binomiale négative tronquée ont été identifiés. La diversité spécifique peut être divisé en deux groupes distincts et complémentaires : la richesse spécifique et l'autre associé à l’équitabilité. Un seul composant de la diversité ne peut donc pas représenter la diversité des poissons démersaux de la zone étudiée. Les GLM des indices complémentaires ont montré essentiellement un effet temporel et l’interaction Année-Strates bathymétriques. Aucun effet de l’effort de pêche n’a été observé sur la richesse spécifique, ni de la concentration en chlorophylle sur l’équitabilité. Ce travail pourrait fournir aux gestionnaires et aux scientifiques des connaissances complémentaires sur la dynamique spatio-temporelle des assemblages démersaux exploités dans des écosystèmes d’upwelling. / The Mauritanian exclusive economic zone is the seat of an upwelling phenomenon and constitutes a transition zone where species of temperate and tropical affinities coexist. To understand the spatio-temporal behavior of demersal assemblages from the point of view of their composition, structure, distribution of probability and diversity faced to ecological concerns. Abiotic factors contribute in the structuring of persistent groundfish assemblages over time. The fishing effects were relatively low, although significant in some years and in some specific geographic areas. Temporal trajectories between groundfish assemblages and environmental conditions have been highlighted for some years and in some specific areas. In each type habitats, two species groups were identified: a minority group of species very aggregative well fitted by Fisher’s log-series distribution and another majority of species little or not aggregative well fitted by the truncated negative binomial distribution. Diversity indices analyzed reveal that this set can be split into two distinct and complementary groups: a group associated with the species richness and another group associated with evenness. One component of diversity may not represent the diversity of the groundfish in the study area. GLMs of complementary indices showed essentially a temporal effect and Bathymetric strata-Year interaction. No effect of fishing effort was observed on the species richness and neither was the concentration of chlorophyll a on the evenness. This work could provide managers and scientists to further knowledge on the spatio-temporal dynamics of groundfish species assemblages exploited in upwelling ecosystems.

Le changement climatique et les invasions biologiques sont parmi les plus grandes menaces de la biodiversité et leurs impacts pourraient augmenter jusqu’à la fin du siècle. Parmi les espèces envahissantes, les fourmis sont un groupe particulièrement néfaste dû à leurs impacts sur les espèces natives, les processus écosystémique, la santé, l’agriculture et l’économie. L’objectif de cette thèse était de prédire les invasions de fourmis – en particulier avec le changement climatique qui pourrait favoriser les invasions en éliminant des barrières thermiques. J’ai utilisé trois approches complémentaires afin d’étudier le potentiel de différentes espèces à envahir : des modèles de distribution, des expériences comportementales et l’analyses d’une base de données de traits écologiques. J’ai modélisé l’aire favorable pour 15 espèces de fourmis parmi les pires, à la fois globalement, par continents, et dans les 34 hotspots de biodiversité. La distribution potentielle de seulement cinq espèce est prédite de diminuer (jusqu’à 35.8%) avec le changement climatique et l’aire potentielle diminue pour la plupart des espèces jusqu’à 63.2%. Les hotspots d’invasions de fourmis se situaient surtout dans des régions tropicales et subtropicales et ils correspondent particulièrement aux hotspots de biodiversité. Contrairement à ce qui est généralement admis, le changement climatique et les invasions biologiques n’agiront pas de manière synergique pour les fourmis. Par contre, les invasions de fourmis resteront probablement un problème global majeur, en particuliers dans les zones où les hotspots de biodiversité et les hotspots d’invasion se superposent. Les modèles de distribution ont identifié de larges zones de recouvrement entre aires favorables de plusieurs espèces de fourmis envahissantes. Dans le futur, ces espèces pourraient arriver simultanément dans les mêmes régions et entrer en compétition. Dans une série d’expériences, j’ai testé les différences comportementales entre 7 espèces de fourmis envahissantes (Anoplolepis gracilipes, Paratrechina longicornis, Myrmica rubra, Linepithema humile, Lasius neglectus, Wasmannia auropunctata et Pheidole megacephala). J’ai découvert deux stratégies comportementales différentes. Les interactions au niveau de la colonie ont suivi des processus démographiques plus complexes. De plus, j’ai mis au point deux expériences pour tester la capacité des fourmis envahissantes à explorer un nouvel espace et à exploiter des ressources. J’ai trouvé des différences significatives entre espèces et leur capacité à dominer par interférence comportementale était négativement corrélée à leurs capacités à découvrir et exploiter des ressources. Cette série d’expériences suggère que les ‘mécanismes’ d’invasion sont plus complexes que ce qui est généralement suggéré et que différentes espèces pourraient utiliser des stratégies comportementales différentes. Étant donné qu’il existe plus de 250 espèces de fourmis exotiques, il serait intéressant de pouvoir identifier à l’avance des futurs envahisseurs potentiels. Afin d’identifier des traits associés au caractère envahissant des fourmis, j’ai mis en place une base de données qui contient 2193 espèces de fourmis et 24 traits écologiques. J’ai effectué une analyse préliminaire de différences de traits entre fourmis natives et envahissantes qui a montré qu’il existe clairement des groupement distincts de natives et envahissantes, avec les espèces exotiques au milieu. Ces résultats pourraient servir de base pour construire un modèle prédictif des invasions de fourmis. Ces différentes approches (modèles, expériences, base de données) sont complémentaires car elles s’intéressent à des aspects différents du futur des invasions de fourmis qui sera vraisemblablement fortement influencé par le changement climatique. Le pires envahisseurs de demain ne seront probablement pas les même qu’aujourd’hui et les zones les plus à risque pourraient changer également. / Climate change and biological invasions are both among the greatest threats to biodiversity and their impacts might increase by the end of the century. Among invasive species, ants are a prominent group due to their negative impacts on native species, ecosystem processes, human and animal health, agro-ecosystems and the economy. The objective of this thesis was to forecast future ant invasions – especially in the light of on-going climate change, which is generally thought to favour invasive species by removing thermal barriers. I used three complementary approaches to study the potential of different ant species to invade in the future: species distribution modelling, behavioural experiments and the analysis of a database of ecological traits. I modelled suitable area for 15 of the worst invasive ant species, both currently and with predicted climate change, globally, regionally and within the world’s 34 biodiversity hotspots. Surprisingly, the potential distribution of only five species was predicted to increase (up to 35.8%) with climate change, with most declining by up to 63.3%. The ant invasion hotspots are predominantly in tropical and subtropical regions of South America, Africa, Asia and Oceanic islands, and particularly correspond with biodiversity hotspots. Contrary to general expectations, climate change and biological invasions will not systematically act synergistically for ants. In addition, I found that the impacts of climate change can change over time and even reverse the trend of the impact (i.e., an increase instead of a decrease or vice versa). However, ant invasions will likely remain as a major global problem, especially where invasion hotspots coincide with biodiversity hotspots. The species distribution models have identified large potentially overlapping distributions of several invasive ants. In the future, these species may arrive simultaneously in the same regions and compete with each other. In a series of experiments, I tested behavioural differences among 7 highly invasive ant species (Anoplolepis gracilipes, Paratrechina longicornis, Myrmica rubra, Linepithema humile, Lasius neglectus, Wasmannia auropunctata and Pheidole megacephala). I discovered two different behavioural strategies among invasive ants. Interactions at the colony level, exhibited more complex demographic processes and more variability. Further, I investigated resource competition and differences in resource exploitation. I found significant differences among species, with competitive abilities that were negatively correlated with behavioural dominance. This series of experiments suggests that the ‘mechanisms’ of invasiveness are more complex than previously thought and that different invasive ant species may use different behavioural strategies. Since there are more than 250 exotic species of ants, it would be interesting to identify potential future invaders. In order to identify traits associated with invasiveness in ants, I set up a database with 2193 ant species and 24 ecological characteristics. I performed a preliminary analysis of trait differences between native and invasive ants that shows clearly different clusters of invasive and native species, with exotic species in between. These results could be used as a basis to construct a predictive model of future ant invasions. The different methods used (models, experiments, database) are complementary in that they explore different aspects of the future ant invasions which are likely to be influenced by on-going climate change. The worst invaders of tomorrow may not be the same as today and similarly, areas most at risk are likely to change.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T16:21:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Faleiro Frederico Dissertacao.pdf: 1687158 bytes, checksum: e1a8a44e89beea38d1a839934c890e56 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-03-28 / The human actions has triggered many threats to biodiversity like land-use and climate changes, overexploitation, pollution, and introduction of invasive species, which can affect organisms both at local and global scale. The science of spatial conservation prioritization emerged as a quantitative approach to support the spatial decisions in face of these threats, while minimizing the socioeconomic and political conflicts. Here we developed spatial solutions to the conservation of non-flying mammals from Brazilian Cerrado considering the socioeconomic costs and the opportunities of environmental governance (first objective). Further, we generated solutions to face the land-use and climate change taking into account the dispersal abilities of species and uncertainties in the species distribution modeling (SDM) process (second objective). We considered the current network of reserves of the Cerrado in both objectives. We built SDMs for 154 species combining model projections weighted by their statistical fit to produce consensus maps of species distribution grouped in three distinct types of models (envelope, statistical and machine-learning models), for both current future scenarios of climate (used only in the last aim). For the first goal, we used the current predicted distribution to run spatial prioritization analyses indicating the best sites for the conservation investment considering human population density, land cost, anthropogenic land use, level of environmental governance, and the distribution of species in trade-off analyses. For the second goal, we used both current and future predicted distribution to run optimization procedures and propose priority sites for conservation, while minimizing species climate-forced dispersal distance , the mean uncertainty associated to the SDM process, and taking into account the future changes in the landscape (by our land use model). SDMs indicated that species-rich sites converge to regions with high population density, high land cost, high anthropogenic land use, and with diverse levels of environmental governance. There was a significant change in spatial priorities when socioeconomic and political dimensions were included in analyses: top priority sites moved towards the north. This spatial change reduced by 68% the potential conservation conflicts with human population, by 72% the likely conflicts arising from land cost and by 68% anthropogenic land use. It also increased by 51% the beneficial effect of environmental governance. Including land-use changes and the modeling uncertainty in the conservation planning process changed significantly the spatial distribution of priority sites in the region. While the inclusion of land-use models altered the spatial location of priority sites at the regional scale, the effects of climate change tended to take place at the local scale. Note that, our solutions already include possible dispersal corridors linking current and future priority sites for mammal conservation, as well as a formal risk analysis based on planning uncertainties. Our results allowed dealing with both complex nature of conflicts among socioeconomic and political dimensions, and the dynamic problem imposed mainly by land-use and climate change. Thus, our analyses figure as a methodological prospect supporting the decision-make process and the consequent translation of conservation planning outcomes into conservations actions / As ações humanas têm desencadeado diversas ameaças a biodiversidade como as mudanças de uso do solo e do clima, sobre-exploração, poluição e introdução de espécies invasoras, que afetas os organismos da escala local até a global. A ciência da conservação espacial para conservação emergiu como uma abordagem quantitativa que tem o objetivo de auxiliar escolhas espaciais que lidem com essas ameaças enquanto minimizam conflitos socioeconômicos e políticos. Aqui nós desenvolvemos soluções espaciais para conservação de mamíferos não voadores do Cerrado considerando os custos socioeconômicos e as oportunidades vindas da governança ambiental (primeiro objetivo). Além disso, nós geramos soluções espaciais que lidem com as mudanças do uso do solo e climáticas levando em consideração as capacidades de dispersão das espécies e as incertezas associadas ao processo de modelagem de distribuição de espécies (MDE) (segundo objetivo). Em ambos objetivos nós consideramos a atual rede de reservas do Cerrado. Nós modelamos a distribuição de 154 espécies combinando as projeções dos modelos e pesado pelo ajuste estatístico para produzir os mapas consenso de distribuição das espécies, agrupados em três distintos tipos de modelos (modelos de envelope, estatísticos e de inteligência artificial), para a atualidade e projetados para o futuro (usado apenas no último objetivo). Para o primeiro objetivo, nós usamos as predições da atual distribuição das espécies para realizar as análises de priorização espacial, indicando os melhores locais para investimento considerando a densidade humana, custo da terra, uso do solo antropogênico, nível de governança ambiental e a distribuição das espécies na perspectiva da análise de demandas conflitantes. Para o segundo objetivo, nós usamos a distribuição atual e futura das espécies para realizar o procedimento de otimização e propor locais para conservação que minimizem os efeitos da dispersão induzida pelas mudanças climáticas, incertezas associadas ao processo MDE e considerando as futuras mudanças na paisagem (através do nosso modelo de uso do solo). A MDE indicou que locais ricos em espécies convergem para locais com alta densidade populacional, alto custo de terra, alta proporção de uso do solo voltado para atividades humanas e diversos níveis de governança ambiental. Houve significativas mudanças nas prioridades espaciais quando as dimensões socioeconômicas e políticas foram incluídas nas análises, fazendo que os locais prioritários mudassem para o norte. Essa mudança espacial reduziu em 68% de potenciais conflitos com população humana, em 72% de conflitos de custo da terra, em 68% de conflitos com o uso do solo antropogênico e 51% de aumento dos possíveis benefícios da governança ambiental. Quando incluímos as mudanças de uso de solo e a incerteza da modelagem no processo de planejamento, os locais prioritários mudaram significativamente na região. Enquanto a inclusão das mudanças no uso do solo alterou a localização espacial dos locais prioritários em escala regional, os efeitos da mudança climática tenderam a ocorrem em escala local. Note que nossas soluções já incluíram possíveis corredores de dispersão para ligação entre as atuais áreas prioritárias com aquelas importantes no futuro, tão bem quanto a análise de risco baseado nas incertezas do planejamento. Nossos resultados permitiram lidar tanto com a complexa natureza dos conflitos entre dimensões socioeconômicas e políticas quanto com problema dinâmico imposto principalmente pelas mudanças do uso do solo e climáticas. Assim, nossas análises auxiliam metodologicamente a dar suporte no processo de tomada de decisão e a consequente tradução dos resultados de planejamentos de conservação em ações de conservação

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