The thesis seeks to examine the development of the US-Japan, US-South Korea, and US- Australia alliances, during the implementation of the rebalance to Asia policy under the Obama administration. It discusses the application of three major international relations theories, realism, liberalism, and constructivism, in studying the causes and effects that resulted in different outcomes across the three dyads, from security, economic, and cultural perspectives. To establish a causal relationship, the thesis employs a qualitative case study method, controlled comparison, to test the theories and identify the factors that play a decisive role in determining the differences. It then concludes that between the three alliances, it was the rational choice of policymakers, focused on state survival and economic interests, that influenced state behaviour in cross-border relationships. The US alliances in Asia-Pacific have been operating mainly on pragmatic foundations and principles, to serve strategic purposes, and have little to do with normative, ideational factors. Keywords Asia-Pacific, alliance, economic interdependence, foreign policy, hegemony, national identity, rebalance, security threat

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A análise das interdependências e contágio dos países da América Latina em relação aos EUA é o objetivo principal deste trabalho. A dinâmica dos mecanismos de transmissão de volatilidade nos mercados de ações e de CDS (Credit Default Swap) foi alterada a partir da crise iniciada em 2008. A tese apresenta a revisão de literatura sobre crises financeiras, seus mecanismos de transmissão e a sua relação com os fatores macroeconômicos dos países latinos. Em seguida são apresentados os dados secundários, incluindo os índices regionais e internacionais das Bolsas de Valores e de CDS soberanos. A metodologia de análise dos dados utiliza estatística descritiva, séries temporais (DCC GARCH), regressão linear múltipla e testes de hipótese. Os resultados indicam que, notadamente durante a crise, os fatores regional e global aumentam e evidenciam potenciais de contágio na Colômbia, México e Peru. No mercado de CDS, há evidências de contágio no Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México. Utilizando-se a comparação das correlações dinâmicas, identificou-se contágio para os seis países latino-americanos estudados, sendo que em quatro deles, Argentina, Brasil, Chile e Peru, houve contágio pré-crise e redução de correlações no período seguinte à crise. Na análise de regressão linear múltipla, a inclusão do retorno norte-americano explicou melhor a variância dos retornos de CDS do que a volatilidade implícita das opções do índice S&P500, medido pelo indicador VIX. As mudanças nos mercados foram, em sua maioria, interdependências, quando verificadas as relações com CDS soberano. / The analysis of interdependence and contagion in Latin America countries in relation to the USA is the aim of this work. The dynamics of mechanisms of volatility transmission throughout the stock and CDS (Credit Default Swap) markets have changed since the 2008 crisis eclosion. This thesis presents a literature review on financial crises, their mechanisms of transmission and their relationship with macroeconomic factors among Latin American countries. Data series include regional and international Stock Exchange indexes and sovereign CDS market. The methodology for data analysis uses descriptive statistics, time-series analysis including DCC GARCH technique, multiple linear regression and hypothesis tests. Results indicate that, remarkably during the crisis period, the interdependence among regional and global factors have increased and show evidence of contagion potentials in Colombia, Mexico and Peru. The CDS market exhibit evidence of contagion in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. By utilizing comparison of dynamic correlations, contagion has been identified for the six Latin American countries under study, being that for four of them (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru) there has been pre-crisis contagion and reduction of correlations in the period following the crisis. In the robust regression, the inclusion of the U.S. return was capable to explain the variance on CDS returns better than the implicit volatility of the S&P500 index options, measured by VIX index. Changes in the sovereign CDS markets have been, in their majority, interdependences.

<p>The goal of this dissertation is to inquire into how states balance economic motivations and security concerns when pursuing sovereignty at borders. More precisely, the dissertation examines tradeoffs between interdependence sovereignty -control over transborder flows--and Westphalian sovereignty defined as exclusion of external actors from states' authoritative space. Focusing on control over cross-border human mobility as the issue area, I put forward the <italic>securitized interdependence framework</italic> as a theory that encompasses economic and security logics of policy-making. Because migration control rests at the nexus of economic/material and geopolitical/military dimensions of state security, it provides an ideal testing ground for observing the interaction of economic and security motives. The theoretical framework draws on the literature on complex interdependence and the logic of the trading state to postulate empirically verifiable propositions on migration control policies. </p><p>The central claim of the dissertation is that human mobility is conditionally securitized and that security logics are modulated by material/economic incentives. Facing informational asymmetries vis-à-vis transnational terrorists, states rely on migration and border control strategies to screen and deter non-state threats to security. However, economic interdependence--trade and capital ties--mitigates fears over transnational terrorism by reconfiguring state preferences, bolstering the relative salience of material concerns in policy-making, tempering perceptions of threat, and creating vested interests at the domestic level. </p><p>To test the theory I have collected and compiled data on i)visa restrictions for pairs of 207 X 207 directed dyads ii)visa rejection rates for European Union and/or Schengen member countries for the period 2003-2007, and iii)asylum recognition rates for 20 select OECD recipient states for the period 1980-2007. I then use this data to test the implications of the theory by distinguishing between economic/voluntary and political/involuntary migration. Additionally, I tease out the distinct effects of two different types of security concerns over transnational terrorism: a reputational effect that considers origin country citizens' involvement in terrorism incidents worldwide and a targeted/directed impact through which states take into account past experience as targets of terrorism. To illustrate the effect of economic interdependence, I analyze trade and capital flows separately and illustrate that both types of commercial ties facilitate liberalization of controls over human mobility through direct and indirect mechanisms. </p><p>I employ a variety of statistical techniques to study the effect of economic and security concerns including several cross-sectional time series techniques, structural break and recursive residual tests for temporal change, and maximum likelihood. Furthermore, I complement my quantitative empirical analysis with an in-depth process tracing approach that traces the evolution of Turkey's migration policies in the context of Turkey's post-1980 economic liberalization. The qualitative analysis makes use of primary and secondary resources obtained from archival field work in Ankara and Istanbul, Turkey.</p><p>The dissertation demonstrates that the impact of security concerns over transnational terrorism is contingent on the type of migration policy under consideration. In particular, policies of control over involuntary/political migration are guided by humanitarian and normative motives, limiting the effect of security concerns. Furthermore, the securitization of visa policies is strongest if recipient states are directly targeted by incidents of transnational terrorism perpetrated by origin country nationals. While states take into account incidents of global terrorism ---attacks against other country nationals or territories by origin country citizens-- this channel of impact is more modest. Additionally, empirical results show that economic interdependence effectively undercuts the effect of global terrorism, driving migration control policies towards liberalization. In sum, the dissertation demonstrates that ways in which states assert interdependence sovereignty exhibit temporal and cross-sectional variation as well as functional differentiation across types of border and migration control policies.</p> / Dissertation

A análise das interdependências e contágio dos países da América Latina em relação aos EUA é o objetivo principal deste trabalho. A dinâmica dos mecanismos de transmissão de volatilidade nos mercados de ações e de CDS (Credit Default Swap) foi alterada a partir da crise iniciada em 2008. A tese apresenta a revisão de literatura sobre crises financeiras, seus mecanismos de transmissão e a sua relação com os fatores macroeconômicos dos países latinos. Em seguida são apresentados os dados secundários, incluindo os índices regionais e internacionais das Bolsas de Valores e de CDS soberanos. A metodologia de análise dos dados utiliza estatística descritiva, séries temporais (DCC GARCH), regressão linear múltipla e testes de hipótese. Os resultados indicam que, notadamente durante a crise, os fatores regional e global aumentam e evidenciam potenciais de contágio na Colômbia, México e Peru. No mercado de CDS, há evidências de contágio no Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México. Utilizando-se a comparação das correlações dinâmicas, identificou-se contágio para os seis países latino-americanos estudados, sendo que em quatro deles, Argentina, Brasil, Chile e Peru, houve contágio pré-crise e redução de correlações no período seguinte à crise. Na análise de regressão linear múltipla, a inclusão do retorno norte-americano explicou melhor a variância dos retornos de CDS do que a volatilidade implícita das opções do índice S&P500, medido pelo indicador VIX. As mudanças nos mercados foram, em sua maioria, interdependências, quando verificadas as relações com CDS soberano. / The analysis of interdependence and contagion in Latin America countries in relation to the USA is the aim of this work. The dynamics of mechanisms of volatility transmission throughout the stock and CDS (Credit Default Swap) markets have changed since the 2008 crisis eclosion. This thesis presents a literature review on financial crises, their mechanisms of transmission and their relationship with macroeconomic factors among Latin American countries. Data series include regional and international Stock Exchange indexes and sovereign CDS market. The methodology for data analysis uses descriptive statistics, time-series analysis including DCC GARCH technique, multiple linear regression and hypothesis tests. Results indicate that, remarkably during the crisis period, the interdependence among regional and global factors have increased and show evidence of contagion potentials in Colombia, Mexico and Peru. The CDS market exhibit evidence of contagion in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. By utilizing comparison of dynamic correlations, contagion has been identified for the six Latin American countries under study, being that for four of them (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru) there has been pre-crisis contagion and reduction of correlations in the period following the crisis. In the robust regression, the inclusion of the U.S. return was capable to explain the variance on CDS returns better than the implicit volatility of the S&P500 index options, measured by VIX index. Changes in the sovereign CDS markets have been, in their majority, interdependences.

Esta tese aborda o tema do impacto político e intelectual da Guerra do Vietnã nos Estados Unidos a partir da história da fundação e dos primeiros anos de existência do periódico Foreign Policy (1970-1977). A intervenção no Vietnã desencadeou uma intensa contestação na sociedade norte-americana em relação às doutrinas e práticas de Guerra Fria que, até então, eram amplamente aceitas. A crise foi tão profunda que as principais organizações de política externa, o sistema político, os consagrados membros do establishment e as bases ideacionais e intelectuais que sustentavam as práticas intervencionistas se tornaram todos alvos de profundos questionamentos e, muitas vezes, violentos ataques. A história da Foreign Policy reconstrói este processo a partir de um ponto de vista privilegiado, uma vez que foi esta crise que motivou a fundação de um novo periódico com a intenção de revisar a política externa norte-americana e reformular os paradigmas analíticos em relações internacionais. Além disso, diversos membros da Foreign Policy participaram de decisões da intervenção no Vietnã, quando ainda eram mais jovens, e assumiram ao longo da década de 1970 posição de destaque na elaboração de uma política externa menos intervencionista e militarista (o que desencadeia na participação deles no governo Carter) ou na constituição de novos paradigmas intelectuais em política internacional que transcendiam o tema da Guerra Fria, abordando a crescente interdependência e as novas questões sociais globais. Esta tese retoma desde a Guerra do Vietnã até as propostas de governo do presidente Carter e os novos paradigmas analíticos em relações internacionais a partir da trajetória de membros da Foreign Policy (Samuel Huntington, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Richard Holbrooke, James C. Thomson, Joseph Nye, entre outros). A história deste periódico ajuda a compreender melhor uma conjuntura política decisiva nos Estados Unidos em que foram concebidos os germes da polarização política, da crise do establishment e de uma preocupação política com as consequências domésticas de uma economia cada vez mais interdependente e globalizada. / This dissertation focuses on the political and intellectual impact of the Vietnam War in the United States, based on the founding and first years of the existence of Foreign Policy Magazine (1970-1977). Intervention in Vietnam set off an intense dispute in American society regarding the Cold War doctrines and practices, which had been widely accepted until then. The crisis was so deep that the major foreign policy organizations, the political system, respected members of the establishment, and the ideological and intellectual bases that had sustained the interventionist practices all became targets of profound questioning and, frequently violent attacks. The history of Foreign Policy reconstructs this process based on a privileged vantage point, since it was this crisis that motivated the rise of a new periodical with the intention of reviewing American foreign policy and reformulating the analytical paradigms regarding international relations. Moreover, various members of Foreign Policy had taken part in the decisions to intervene in Vietnam, when they were younger, and during the 1970s assumed a position of importance in developing a less interventionist and militaristic foreign policy (which led to their participation in the Carter government), or in the creation of new intellectual paradigms in international politics that transcend the theme of the Cold War, focusing on increasing interdependence and the new global social issues. This dissertation reexamines the period from the Vietnam War to the Carter president proposals and the new analytical paradigms with respect to international relations based on the trajectory of the Foreign Policy associates (Samuel Huntington, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Richard Holbrooke, James C. Thomson, Joseph Nye, and others). The history of this journal helps to better understand one decisive political juncture of the United States, wherein were conceived the seeds of political polarization, the crisis of the establishment, and of a political concern with the domestic consequences of an increasingly interdependent and globalized economy.

Esta tese aborda o tema do impacto político e intelectual da Guerra do Vietnã nos Estados Unidos a partir da história da fundação e dos primeiros anos de existência do periódico Foreign Policy (1970-1977). A intervenção no Vietnã desencadeou uma intensa contestação na sociedade norte-americana em relação às doutrinas e práticas de Guerra Fria que, até então, eram amplamente aceitas. A crise foi tão profunda que as principais organizações de política externa, o sistema político, os consagrados membros do establishment e as bases ideacionais e intelectuais que sustentavam as práticas intervencionistas se tornaram todos alvos de profundos questionamentos e, muitas vezes, violentos ataques. A história da Foreign Policy reconstrói este processo a partir de um ponto de vista privilegiado, uma vez que foi esta crise que motivou a fundação de um novo periódico com a intenção de revisar a política externa norte-americana e reformular os paradigmas analíticos em relações internacionais. Além disso, diversos membros da Foreign Policy participaram de decisões da intervenção no Vietnã, quando ainda eram mais jovens, e assumiram ao longo da década de 1970 posição de destaque na elaboração de uma política externa menos intervencionista e militarista (o que desencadeia na participação deles no governo Carter) ou na constituição de novos paradigmas intelectuais em política internacional que transcendiam o tema da Guerra Fria, abordando a crescente interdependência e as novas questões sociais globais. Esta tese retoma desde a Guerra do Vietnã até as propostas de governo do presidente Carter e os novos paradigmas analíticos em relações internacionais a partir da trajetória de membros da Foreign Policy (Samuel Huntington, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Richard Holbrooke, James C. Thomson, Joseph Nye, entre outros). A história deste periódico ajuda a compreender melhor uma conjuntura política decisiva nos Estados Unidos em que foram concebidos os germes da polarização política, da crise do establishment e de uma preocupação política com as consequências domésticas de uma economia cada vez mais interdependente e globalizada. / This dissertation focuses on the political and intellectual impact of the Vietnam War in the United States, based on the founding and first years of the existence of Foreign Policy Magazine (1970-1977). Intervention in Vietnam set off an intense dispute in American society regarding the Cold War doctrines and practices, which had been widely accepted until then. The crisis was so deep that the major foreign policy organizations, the political system, respected members of the establishment, and the ideological and intellectual bases that had sustained the interventionist practices all became targets of profound questioning and, frequently violent attacks. The history of Foreign Policy reconstructs this process based on a privileged vantage point, since it was this crisis that motivated the rise of a new periodical with the intention of reviewing American foreign policy and reformulating the analytical paradigms regarding international relations. Moreover, various members of Foreign Policy had taken part in the decisions to intervene in Vietnam, when they were younger, and during the 1970s assumed a position of importance in developing a less interventionist and militaristic foreign policy (which led to their participation in the Carter government), or in the creation of new intellectual paradigms in international politics that transcend the theme of the Cold War, focusing on increasing interdependence and the new global social issues. This dissertation reexamines the period from the Vietnam War to the Carter president proposals and the new analytical paradigms with respect to international relations based on the trajectory of the Foreign Policy associates (Samuel Huntington, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Richard Holbrooke, James C. Thomson, Joseph Nye, and others). The history of this journal helps to better understand one decisive political juncture of the United States, wherein were conceived the seeds of political polarization, the crisis of the establishment, and of a political concern with the domestic consequences of an increasingly interdependent and globalized economy.

This thesis investigates the European Union (EU) effect on the economic activity across the Green Line in the divided Cyprus between 2004 and 2016. The primary focus is on the development and implementation of the EU's Green Line Regulation (GLR), which regulates and enables such activity from three aspects: movement of goods, services, and persons. In tracing the EU effect, this thesis provides a critical appraisal of the GLR on whether it provides an adequate legal framework for the economic activity in those three aspects and the extent to which it has contributed to the development of economic cooperation between the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot communities across the divide. The analysis also pays an equal level of attention to the extent to which the EU effect has been mediated by the factors at the domestic level: the roles of legal framework, ethno-politics in political elites, ethno-politics in civil society, and governance. The investigation of this study is pegged in two academic literatures. The first one is the Europeanisation debate, which concerns with the EU effect in the domestic affairs of countries associated with the EU. This thesis borrows three mechanisms of Europeanisation from this debate in order to test the EU effect on the three aspects of economic activity across the divide in Cyprus: i) institutional compliance, ii) change of domestic opportunity structures, iii) cognitive change. The second academic literature is the liberal peace, which it proposes that greater economic interactions and development of economic interdependence between countries facilitate resolution of their conflicts. The insights from this debate is utilised for conceptualising the EU's GLR as a liberal peace project. While Europeanisation is portrayed as a 'process', liberal peace objectives are seen as the 'ultimate destination', which the 'vehicle' of the EU's GLR will drive the island towards it. This thesis argues that the GLR has only achieved a limited success and largely failed to contribute to the development of economic cooperation across the divide in Cyprus. This is mainly because the Europeanisation process have been heavily mediated and negated by the design shortcomings of the GLR as well as the factors at the domestic level, which are inherently linked to the politics of division. In this context, this thesis aspires to make contribution in both empirical and conceptual terms. The in-depth and critical investigation of the GLR as well as of the economic activity across the divide in Cyprus provides a much-needed contribution to the contemporary politics of Cyprus, which has been largely ignored by the existing academic literature. Additionally, the conceptual framework developed in this thesis allows exploring synergies between the theoretical literatures of Europeanisation and liberal peace and combines them with examination of new empirical evidence. This focus captures insights on how Europeanisation can be used as a 'tool' for pursuing liberal peace objectives in contested statehood, beyond what has been researched so far and also provides a blueprint for other similar cases of conflict.

「中國崛起」是國際社會在討論中共1990年代以來的變化所使用的概念。影響臺灣國家安全的因素雖然很多，但中共政權始終是臺灣國家安全的最大威脅，「中共崛起」後，伴隨其綜合國力的成長，及其擴張的戰略企圖，臺灣問題已經從以往民族情感的統一需求，提升為中共向外擴張的戰略需求，而造成臺灣在安全方面的更大挑戰。 雖然世人對「中國崛起」是否成為威脅的看法分歧，現實主義者認為他是潛在的威脅，主張藉由赫阻等手段維持權力平衡；自由主義者認為讓中國接受國際機制規範，可降低與之發生軍事衝突的可能；建構主義者認為與中國正面的互動會走向和平，但負面的互動會走向衝突；但就臺灣的安全而言，在中共不放棄以武力犯臺的原則下，中共的和平宣示、現實主義、自由主義、乃至建構主義對「中國崛起」的看法與主張，只能當作臺灣在策定國家安全戰略的分析與參考，畢竟中國是否為「和平崛起」需要經過諸多檢驗，臺海安全只能當作國際上對中共行為與和平宣示的驗證；就臺灣本身而言，我們必須堅信中共是我們最大的安全威脅來源。 本文的論述主要從中共崛起的戰略意涵及中共對於未來的戰略企圖，從軍事、經濟、政治、文化層面，解構中共崛起後，臺灣安全威脅的變化，分析臺灣如何在「中共崛起」、「國際、區域」局勢更迭中，從國際、兩岸關係、臺灣內部的軍事、經濟、政治、文化層面，建立臺灣應有的認知共識，與具體的戰略思考。以選擇臺灣「避戰爭之兇、趨和平之吉」的最好方法。 / Many of the ideas of the rise of the PRC come from the new security concept, which was formulated by thinktanks in the international comunnity in the mid-1990s. Concerning unification, China is the single most threat to Taiwan’s survival. Spatial expansion, a result of rising China, is gathering momentum to impact Taiwan security. There are controversial arguments. Rationalist argues that China need to be contained through deterrence. Liberalist argues that in order to reduce potential conflict, China can be tampered through international norms. Constructionist argues that China could be bad or behaving boy. Regarding Taiwan security, these arguments are irrelevant to contemporary Taiwan security. As long as China not to exclude the possibility to use force in the unification, China is the single most threat against Taiwan. Regarding Rising China, this paper exams its implications and her strategic intentions. Finally, facing the threat this article tries to find the most feasible strategy in the regional/global environment with economic, political, military, cultural considerations.