Since the start of the 21st century, energy security concerns and rising international energy costs have led China to pursue the development of a coal to oil industry, whereby converting a portion of the nation's abundant coal reserves into gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel, China might be able to increase its domestic oil production and generate profits. But a large-scale coal to oil industry exerts added pressure on China's domestic coal reserves and water resources, and generates significant greenhouse gas emissions. The tension between the potential benefits of coal to oil development and its associated negative externalities present a challenge for China's energy policymakers, who must balance competing demands for energy security, resource management, and equitable development. The challenge of effectively managing the development of this industry is complicated by the characteristic problems plaguing energy sector governance in China, including the absence of a powerful energy policymaking institution, the decentralized nature of the country's economic development, and the influence of large energy companies. This study examines the evolution of China's coal to oil industry and the policies shaping its development in order to better understand energy sector governance in China and the complex challenges confronting policymakers as they strive to balance an array of competing demands. It finds that weak energy institutions and powerful domestic actors indeed hinder China's ability to efficiently formulate energy policies for the coal to oil industry, while considerations about the industry's environmental and resource impacts compel a cautious approach to development. China's incremental approach to formulating a long-term plan for the development of the coal to oil industry may, in the end, yield more effective policies.

Energy Management strategy for sustainable regional development has been selected as the topic of my research due to the fact that energy demand alongside with energy dependency have been continuously growing from a long term perspective. Sustainable development is defined by three imperatives – energy efficiency, ecology and security. Review of the current state and analysis of historical trends in Energetics at global and regional level are covered in this research. Results of the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis introduce a set of implications and recommendations for Energy Management strategy in the Czech Republic.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(エネルギー科学) / 甲第19820号 / エネ博第326号 / 新制||エネ||66(附属図書館) / 32856 / 京都大学大学院エネルギー科学研究科エネルギー社会・環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 宇根﨑 博信, 教授 石原 慶一, 教授 手塚 哲央 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Energy Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

The global energy sector is experiencing an transition towards renewable energy, a transition that is mainly driven by issues related to climate change and energy security. In this paper, we investigate the time-varying volatility and risk measures of renewable energy and traditional energy firms. Further, we examine how uncertainty and potential drivers connected to energy security affect the volatilities and returns of renewable energy stocks. By applying the MS- GARCH (1,1) and MS-GJR-GARCH (1,1) approach we calculate the Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at Risk (CvaR). We estimate a fixed effects model to determine the impact of the uncertainty variables on the estimated conditional volatility and returns. We contribute to the existing literature by providing a microeconomic perspective on the effects of the transition and by examining the influence of green metal prices. Contrary to previous research our findings indicate that economic policy uncertainty has a positive impact on the returns of renewable stocks. Possibly marking a shift caused by increased engagement towards a renewable transition where the attention from both governments and financial institutions mitigates the negative effects of the uncertainty that previously affected the energy sector. However, the prices of crucial green metals were found to have a negative impact on renewable stocks suggesting that the transition to renewable energy might impose implications regarding energy security if not managed correctly. The main policy implications are that beneficial policies aimed at the green sector should be continued and consistent in order to assist renewable firms during their vulnerable development phase, encourage investment into the sector and speed up the ongoing transition. Further, policies aimed toward ensuring sustainable extraction of green metals and diversifying the sources are needed in order to mitigate the new challenges regarding energy security that the transition might impose.

The power system in Europe is undergoing a rapid transition with the expansion of renewable capacity and a decrease in dispatchable conventional technologies. An important part of planning for the power system is ensuring the security of the electricity supply. The focus of the work within the dissertation is to investigate the role of interconnectors in maintaining the security of the electricity supply. With this focus in mind, three sets of research questions are answered: How to assess the Security of Supply in a power system? With the decrease in available conventional generation capacity, how much and what new investment would be required? What role do grid interconnections play in maintaining the security of supply? These research questions are answered by starting with a framework of analysis which classifies various aspects relevant to ensuring the security of electricity supply into uncertainties, systematic risks and specific risks. A scenario-based analysis has been carried out by using a deterministic capacity expansion model to investigate systematic risks and capacity expansion requirements. This is followed by a Monte-Carlo-based stochastic generation adequacy assessment to assess specific risks. The results show significantly reduced capacity requirements from cross-border reliance in maintaining generation adequacy. Furthermore, the interaction between the increase in renewables, capacity expansion requirements and generation adequacy are analyzed.:1. Introduction 2. Literature Overview and Framework for Assessing Security of Supply 3. Numerical Analysis of Germany's Electricity Trade Surplus 4. Description of Deterministic Capacity Expansion Model 5. Description of Stochastic Modelling used to Assess Generation Adequacy 6. Scenario Based Analysis of Capacity Expansion 7. Stochastic Assessment of Generation Adequacy 8. Summary and Further Research

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本文由新安全觀角度研究石油能源安全，由安全分析發現，任何影響石油供給的課題，都會成為安全議題的指涉對象；二戰結束後，因戰爭需求的石油使用動機轉變成為經濟發展的目的，因此經濟互動對能源安全的影響，加上自70年代末期後核能使用對環境破壞帶來的不確定性，更加重石油在能源市場的重要性，另一方面，環境議題的重視在90年代以來成為影響石油能源安全的重要「功能性行為者」，所以國際能源安全大致受到能源生產消費自身的限制、經濟發展與能源產業的互動，及環境管制的三面向的領域作用影響。 由區域安全分析的層次來看，資源蘊藏與地域分配有密切關係，在60年代後石油躍升成主要的能源來源，加上石油輸出國家組織的成立，使石油生產集中的情況更加明顯，面對政治夾雜經濟的複雜供需情況，使區域安全分析成為研究能源安全的重要途徑。本文以美國涉足中亞之石油能源安全為例發現，因為能源生產分配集中，使油氣產地對更具戰略意義，然政治因素仍是目前影響美國石油安全的重要變因，但經濟及環境發展在能源安全政策整體制定上仍是不可或缺的內涵。 / The thesis is aimed to make the study of oil energy security in the viewpoint of new security concept. In the framework of security analysis, what may affect the oil security of supply will be possible to be the reference object of security agenda. And after the WW II, the purpose of oil using form the war fighting to economic development emphasize the importance between the energy security and economic interaction. With the environmental destruction uncertainties resulting from the nuclear using, the environmental issue became the main factor— the functional behavior within the framework of energy security analysis. Thus, international energy security is concerned by the aspects of the self-limitation of energy supplier, the interaction between the economic development and energy industries, and the environmental regulation. We can reach the conclusion that there is the close relation between the energy resource and regional distribution with the regional level of security analysis. In 60s, oil raise to be the main global energy source, and phenomenon of oil production centralization became more obvious after the foundation of OPEC. Facing the situation mixed with the energy supply and demand because of the political and economic reasons, it is the best method to take the way of regional security analysis to make the study of energy security. Besides, it concludes that the oil production place become more strategic as making the study of “American oil energy security policy set foot in Central Asia”. At the present time, political factor still ruling guides the American oil energy security; however, the environment development is indispensable in making the whole energy security policy.

This thesis seeks to explain Poland’s energy security policies towards Russia in the period from 1990-2007. It is inspired by the puzzle that Poland’s commitments to reduce its dependence on imported oil and gas from Russia have varied considerably during this period. Numerous large-scale projects to enhance energy security have been proposed, abandoned and revisited, all in the absence of a significant change to Poland’s level of dependence on Russia or its exposure to supply risks. This puzzle poses a challenge to conventional approaches to energy security, which tend to explain policies as a function of ‘material’ shifts in the price, supply or demand for fossil fuels. Though these factors are undoubtedly important it is argued that, in the case of Poland, energy security is more affected by domestic decision-making processes than by such material shifts. In particular, the degree and form of intervention in the energy sector by the political executive in Poland is highlighted as a key factor explaining energy security policy output. These interventions in Poland are classified and distinguished according to three types of ‘policy network’ – statist, corporatist and liberal, each of which represented a different outlook on the optimal means for ensuring energy security. These policy networks were embedded within different governments, and their preferences fashioned Poland’s responses to energy security challenges occurring under similar material conditions.

La question des énergies marines renouvelables dégage des problématiques juridiques complexes qui intéressent le droit tant dans sa dimension internationale, européenne que nationale. L’effervescence des initiatives publiques et privées en ce domaine implique une approche adaptée en vue d’améliorer et de développer les instruments juridiques nécessaires au développement durable des énergies de la mer. Cette approche suppose trois niveaux d’analyse. Au regard du droit international, celle-ci se caractérise par une finalité environnementale qui relève plus globalement de l’intérêt général. En ce sens, la conversion d’énergies marines n’engendre pas d’émission de gaz à effet de serre et son impact sur le milieu marin est généralement minime. Avec le concours des énergies de la mer, les États seront à même de respecter leurs engagements supranationaux, notamment en matière de changements climatiques. De surcroît, le droit de la mer offre une sécurité juridique dans l’utilisation de l’espace maritime en définissant non seulement les droits, mais les obligations des États côtiers. À l’échelle européenne, la sécurité juridique est liée à l’objectif d’une part d’au moins 20 % d’énergie produite à partir de sources renouvelables dans la consommation finale brute d’énergie de l’Union d’ici à 2020 et encouragée par l’initiative des États riverains des mers du Nord en faveur d’un réseau off-shore dans le contexte de l’émergence du marché européen des énergies renouvelables. Au plan national, l’analyse du droit interne met en lumière les meilleures pratiques relatives au développement des énergies marines renouvelables en termes de promotion des investissements et de gestion durable des mers et des océans. / The issue of marine renewable energies raises complex legal problems which interest the Law in its International, European and Domestic dimension. The effervescence of public and private initiatives on the matter requires a tailored approach to improve and develop legal instruments to support development of ocean energies. This approach elicits three levels of analysis. According to the International Law, it is marked by an environmental objective resulting from public interest. In this sense, marine energy conversion does not generate greenhouse gas emissions and its impact on the marine environment is generally minimal. With the help of these renewable energies, States will be able to respect their supranational commitments, particularly regarding climate change. In addition, the Law of the Sea provides legal certainty in the use of ocean space, by defining not only rights but obligations to coastal states. At the European level, legal certainty is connected to the target of at least 20 % share of energy from renewable sources in the Union's gross final consumption of energy by 2020, and is especially encouraged by the North Seas Countries' Offshore Grid Initiative in the context of the Europe's emerging renewable energy market. On a National perspective, the analysis of Comparative Law highlights the best practices related to offshore renewable development in terms of promoting investment and sustainable ocean management.

This thesis will focus on Azerbaijan's oil and gas industry; how the country uses its energy revenues within its economy; how it avoids economic pathologies such as the "Dutch Disease"; Azerbaijan's role within the Caspian Basin, and finally, the European Union's energy security and how Azerbaijan's energy resources can impact it. The Republic of Azerbaijan is a natural resource-rich country, and uses its energy resources as a means of socio-economic advancement and stability. Recent developments within the country's natural gas sector have allowed Azerbaijan to become a net gas exporter. The EU's growing demand for energy resources illustrates how important it is for states to have access to secure, stable, and diverse sources of energy. Energy resource exploration and the subsequent export of these products to international markets play a crucial role for the Republic of Azerbaijan's economy. Therefore, this thesis will first provide a brief evaluation of the history of Azerbaijan's energy sector; an overview of the current situation and recent developments; and explore how energy revenues are being distributed in the economy. It will define the interests of other important actors such as Russia, Turkey and the USA; and finally, it will assess the EU energy security, the role of Azerbaijan as the...