This thesis aims to study Russian soft security policy under Vladimir Putin and examines the basic soft security threats which Russia has encountered and how it fought against these threats in the post-Soviet era. Contrary to the mainstream literature suggesting that Russia has focused exclusively on hard security issues within its national security policies due to its historical background and geo-political factors, the thesis argues that Russia started to give more importance to soft security besides hard security in its national security policies since Putin&rsquo / s presidency. Among soft security challenges, Russia prioritizes especially terrorism, transnational organized crime and energy security. The thesis is composed of six chapters. The introductory first chapter is followed by the second chapter examining the role of soft security in Russian national security. The following three chapters discuss Russia&rsquo / s soft security challenges of terrorism, transnational organized crime and energy security respectively whereas the sixth chapter concludes the thesis.

在1993年中國成為石油淨進口國後，年消費量不斷擴大，產量卻無法大幅提升，石油供給不足的缺口正逐步擴大，且依國際能源總署評估，中國將是未來世界能源爭奪上的關鍵國家。 能源因素從1993年以來逐步地成為中國外交方面的思考。中國在處理外交事務越來越重視能源問題。在21世紀的石油價格不斷提升的趨勢對中國經濟造成相當大的衝擊，一旦能源供應短缺，享受經濟快速發展的中國面將臨極大的危險。另外在軍事力量加強的同時中國需要建立石油儲備來因應軍事行動之所需。 從外交戰略而言，中國處於亞洲中心，東接太平洋，西與中亞產油地區接壤，南出巴基斯坦，具備非常有利的地緣戰略優勢。中國需藉助有利的地緣戰略位置，在不流血的「石油戰爭」中儘早規劃以為因應，方不致遭受其它國家的戰略的箝制。 因此，本論文的研究目的在於以1993年至2006年能源因素影響中國外交政策和計劃的追蹤資料，搭配政治分析法， 探討以下問題： 一，分析預測將來中國能源方面的需求趨勢；二，探究能源需求促使中國政府採取何種外交手段。三，在中國外交決策中能源因素扮演何種的決定因素。 / Since 1993, China has become an importer of oil; the oil consumption has been growing. At the same time, China couldn’t increase the oil production, as the result, the lack of oil supplying has continuously increased. If we analyze from the point of international resource consumption, China comes to be the key country between those, who will struggle for the energy resources in the future. Since 1993, energy factor has been implemented to the consideration in the Chinese diplomacy. China has started to pay more and more attention to the energy factor while dealing with its international affairs. In 21 century, the oil price has been increasingly rising, that has become a serious danger for Chinese economy. The sudden lack of energy resources will be the great threat for fast developing Chinese economy. Also, been increasing its military power, China needs to create strategic oil stocks in order to move effectively its military forces. If we consider from strategic point of view, China is in the center of Asia, with Pacific Ocean on its East Coast, bordering with Pakistan on the South, China has very favorable geographical strategic advantages. China needs to use its strategic position for early planning strategy in its “non-blood war” for oil resources. Otherwise, China will face containment from the other countries. The purpose of this study is thus to investigate the following issues based upon the date for the influence of energy factor on Chinese foreign policy and intentions during the period of 1993-2006: 1.Understanding the trends for the future growth of energy demand in China. 2.Investigating what kind of measures can be applying by Chinese government in the face of these trends. 3.Figuring out how big the role of energy factor in the Chinese foreign policy implementation.

To ensure energy security, the first to know what is energy, and second, what are the factors of non-security, means that the challenge of energy security. Finally, puts forward some policy or in the case of a reasonable method to solve it according to these problems. At present, energy security is facing two challenges of structural crisis and crisis management system. Concretely, main problems in that security are analyzed, which are considered to affect China and mostly embody in such four big areas as the great pressure in energy supply, the scarcity of relative energy resources, foreign oil dependence is too large, crisis management systems of energy security, the shortage of green energy. Furthermore the counter measures concerned are proposed, including saving energy and increasing the energy utilization rate, to establish strategic energy reserves, strengthening environmental protection and adjusting the primary energy structure. China's rapid economic growth lead to sharp increase in oil imports. Due to China relies on a single chokepoint, the Malacca Strait, which has caused a high degree of concern about the safety of its energy. Nearly three-quarters of its oil imports flowing through the Strait. In view of its strategic importance to China and China’s little sway on the waterway, this view is mainly focused on China’s energy demand and supply in two aspects of concern. The paper analysis of whether the current energy structure is appropriate and sustainable. Because the energy security is facing China's energy is more and more dependent on imported fuel and the need to convert energy to meet the demand of modern society and the rapid growth of the requirements of the economic challenges. Concludes that the China's new policy should focus on energy efficiency, energy saving, renewable energy and turned to the main energy source of natural gas.

Pastaruoju metu nevengiama pabrėžti, kad keičiasi valstybių saugumo pobūdis ir grėsmių specifika – dažnai ir išsamiai kalbama apie tradicinių, karinių grėsmių reikšmės sumažėjimą ir naujo tipo grėsmių atsiradimą. Dar visai neseniai ryšys tarp energetikos ir užsienio bei saugumo politikos nebuvo nei toks akivaizdus, nei taip stipriai akcentuojamas. Tačiau per pastaruosius kelerius metus tarptautinė situacija dėl energijos apsirūpinimo smarkiai pasikeitė. Garantuotas energetinių išteklių tiekimas stabiliomis kainomis tapo rimta tarptautinių santykių problema. Europos Sąjungos priklausomybė nuo Rusijos energijos šaltinių ypač padidėjo. Jau šiuo metu apie 40 procentų dujų ir apie trečdalį naftos daugelis ES �����alių gauna iš Rusijos, kitos, sakykim, Lenkija ar Baltijos valstybės, – dar daugiau. Lietuva jau ir šiandien yra per daug priklausoma nuo Rusijos energetinių išteklių, o kai bus uždaryta Ignalinos atominė elektrinė, priklausomybė nuo išorinių šaltinių - o tai reiškia, nuo Rusijos - dar padidės. Rusijai ir Vokietijai Baltijos jūros dugnu nutiesus Šiaurės Europos dujotiekį, Lietuva taps dar labiau izoliuota Europos „energetinė sala”. ES nesugeba suformuoti vieningos ES energetinės politikos Rusijos atžvilgiu, nes dauguma ES narių vis dar yra linkusios palaikyti joms palankų dvišalį dialogą su Rusija, neretai neatsižvelgdamos į kaimyninių valstybių ar ES interesus plačiąja prasme. Dėl to atskirų ES valstybių energetinė priklausomybė nuo Rusijos yra linkusi didėti. Tuo pačiu... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Energy security is, at its essence, an issue of national security. Due to the power that energy-producing states have relative to transit and consumer countries, energy security must be understood in terms of geopolitics. The gas cutoff to Ukraine on January 1, 2006 is often called a “wake-up moment” for Europe, in other words, the point at which Europeans became aware of their over-dependence on Russian gas. Recognizing the risk, that East and Central Europe countries will have difficulty resisting Russian political and economic pressure, US Vice President Dick Cheney underlined on May 4 at the 2006 Vilnius Conference that “No legitimate interest is served when oil and gas become tools of intimidation or blackmail, either by supply manipulation or attempts to monopolize transportation.” That said, and while countries ranging from Central Asia to the Baltic Sea want to diversify their sources away from Russia, to date, there is still no coherent energy security policy in Europe or the US. Despite some recent efforts, a real common energy strategy of the European Union is still in the making. Every single EU-member has therefore opted for bilateral policies towards energy exporters in order to tackle mounting energy demands at a time when global hydrocarbon resources are slowly but steadily being depleted. Europe is wedged between energy producers in the North Sea, North Africa and the Middle East, but Russia has come to be one of the most interesting exporters of energy to... [to full text]

Pastaraisiais dešimtmečiais išryškėjo iškastinio kuro vartojimo trūkumai. Pirminei trūkumų aspektai pasireiškia įvertinant ribotus naftos, gamtinių dujų, anglies bei urano išteklius, antra tradicinė energetika į atmosferą išmeta didelį kiekį teršalų. Šio kuro išteklius gamta kūrė keletą šimtų milijonų metų, o per ne visą pastarąjį šimtmetį žmonija sunaudojo jau daugiau kaip pusę. Šiandieniniame pasaulyje nėra svarbesnio klausimo kaip klimato kaitos švelninimas ir apsirūpinimas energija. Alternatyvų ieškojimas iškastiniam kurui pakeisti suteikia galimybę daugiau pažvelgti į atsinaujinančius išteklius. Lietuvos ir Latvijos atveju, šalys privalo ieškoti ir plačiau naudoti alternatyvas; pirma dėl patiriamos priklausomybės nuo importuojamo kuro, antra dėl darnios energetinės plėtros subalansavimo. Lietuva ir Latvija siekia turėti galimybę individualiai rinktis energijos šaltinius, ypač darančius mažesnį poveikį klimatui bei nepriklausomybei nuo išorinių tiekėjų. Todėl didžiausia perspektyva šiose šalyse plėtoti biomasės, hidroenergetikos ir vėjo jėgainių elektrines. Šių išteklių naudojimas turi didžiausią potencialą energetikos srityje, kad būtų pasiektos Lietuvos ir Latvijos nacionalinės energetikos strategijos tikslai ir gairės. Tam, kad būtų įgyvendinti alternatyvūs projektai reikia tvirtos vyriausybių paramos ir ganėtinai vieningos politinės iniciatyvos. Lietuvos ir Latvijos politiniai vidaus ir išorės veiksniais nesuteikia pilnai vystyti energetinę politiką, kadangi... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / In recent decades the shortcomings of consumption of fossil fuel has been clarified. The primary aspects of the shortcomings are asserted when evaluating the limited resources of oil, natural gasses, coal and uranium, secondly, the traditional energy eliminates a huge amount of pollution to the atmosphere. The resources of this fuel were created by nature in hundreds millions years, and during not full latter century the humankind has used more than a half of it. In modern-days world the most important question is the buffering of climate change and provision of energy. The finding of alternative ways for the fossil fuel provides a possibility to look wider to the renewable energy resources. In cases of Lithuania and Latvia, the states must find and use wider alternatives; firstly, due to the dependence on the imported fuel, secondly, due to the balancing of the sustainable development of energy. Lithuania and Latvia seek to get possibility choosing energy resources individually, especially those making less impact on the climate and assuring independence from the external providers. Therefore, the biggest perspective in these states is to develop biomass, hydro-energy and wind plants. The usage of the aforementioned resources has the biggest potential in the field of energy, in order to implement the goals and guidelines of the national energy of Lithuania and Latvia. In order to implement the alternative projects, there is a need of strong governmental support and... [to full text]

Pagrindinis darbo tikslas yra išanalizuoti Europos Sąjungos šiaurinio regiono, akcentuojant Rusijos Federacijos ir Norvegijos Karalystės įtaką regione, vaidmenį, užtikrinant energetinį saugumą Europos Sąjungoje, bei numatyti galimas ES energetikos politikos perspektyvas netolimoje ateityje. Siekiant geriau atskleisti darbo tikslą, keliami šie uždaviniai: apibrėžti saugumo sąvokos pagrindines dimensijas, veiksnius bei regioninio saugumo komplekso svarbą ir reikšmę Europos Sąjungos kontekste; atskleisti Europos Sąjungos šiaurinio ir Arkties regionų vaidmenį ES energetikos politikoje; išanalizuoti dabartinę ES energetinę padėtį ir priklausomybę nuo energetinių išteklių importo; išsiaiškinti Rusijos Federacijos ir Norvegijos Karalystės vietą ES energetinio saugumo kontekste; numatyti ES kaip galimo energetinio saugumo komplekso energetikos politikos ateities gaires. Parašius darbą pavyko patvirtinti iškeltą ginamąjį teiginį, jog nacionalinių valstybių kova dėl energetinių išteklių ir individualūs sprendimai sudaro sąlygas energetiniam nesaugumui Europos Sąjungoje, kadangi ES deklaruojamas siekis kalbėti „vienu balsu“ ir įgyvendinti bendrą energetinę politiką, prasilenkia su valstybių nacionaliniais interesais ir lieka neįgyvendintas. Nors Europos Sąjunga gali būti laikoma energetiniu saugumo kompleksu, kuriame energetinės priklausomybės santykis tarp šalių yra suvokiamas kaip grėsmė (kurios šaltinis iš esmės yra vienas – Rusijos Federacija), tačiau didėjantis vartojimas ir... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The main object of this study is to analyze the role of the North region of European Union, ensuring energy security in the EU and foresee the possible perspectives of the EU’s energy policy in the nearest future. The North region is analyzed emphasizing two countries which are main energy suppliers for Europe – Russian Federation and Norway. For a better understanding of the object, the specific proposition has been formulated: the struggle of the national states for energy resources and individual decisions allow energy insecurity in the European Union since the EU’s declared objective „to speak in one voice“ is inconsistent with national interests of EU’s member states. Although the European Union can be defined as the complex of energy security in which the relation of dependence is comprehended as a threat (the main source of this threat is the Russian Federation’s energy monopoly), however the growing consumption and competition for energy resources encourage the countries to search for alternative energy resources and its suppliers. These actions disrupt the initiatives of the common European Union’s energy policy. The political consciousness is not yet grown in the EU’s countries and it determinates the weakness of the EU as a political construct in case of competition with the rising economical powers (such as India and China) for energy resources. On the other hand the consumption is growing in the Russian market as well, which implies possible insecurity of supply... [to full text]

Two of the most significant challenges facing the world in the 21st century are improving energy security and mitigating the effects of climate change. To counter these challenges, renewable energy sources, such as wind, are considered a possible solution and have gained importance worldwide. With many jurisdictions setting high wind-energy targets for the coming decades, risks have grown as the demand for new wind turbines has outstripped the growth of its suppliers. Integrating significant amounts of wind-electricity into existing networks raises reliability concerns due to variable nature of wind. A method for estimating the reliability of wind-energy systems is presented which is a combination of a forecasting method (probabilistic approach) and RL (Resistance-Load) technique (risk-based approach), demonstrated through a case study, and verified using real-time wind farm data.

Worldwide, wind energy added to the energy mix of electricity suppliers may be seen as way of improving energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, due to wind's variability wind electricity cannot be used to meet demands which require a continuous supply of electricity. One solution to the variability problem is to adopt services that are capable of storing energy for use at a later time. Five new wind-allocation methods are considered to maximize its use of wind-electricity while at the same time reducing emissions. Simulations results, show that households benefit from an annual savings of about 30% to 36% with an estimated payback period ranging between 3.5 and 5.5 years. Emissions reduction in the off-peak scenarios is between 32% and 35% and about 86% in the anytime scenario. Heating demands satisfied ranges between 75% and 96% and total wind used for heating is between 3%-4%.

Lithuania has limited domestic energy resources, and is therefore, heavily dependent on imports of oil products and natural gas. Lithuania imported around 90% of its oil and 100% of natural gas in 2009. Particularly, after the accession to the European Union (EU), and decommissioning of main electricity generation source Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), energy security became one of the main concerns. Therefore, it is vital to evaluate different pathways the country could take in order to achieve desirable energy security, and ensure sustainable development of the energy system in Lithuania. The study was conducted using LEAP, the Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to develop energy policy analysis. Different scenarios presented in the report show how Lithuanian energy system would react in given different circumstances. Moreover, it demonstrates how implementation of existing energy projects separately or combined together would affect the level of energy security and sustainability in Lithuania. The research shows that current government policies could lead Lithuania to more secure and sustainable energy future. However, in a long run higher investments in renewable energy might be more environmentally and economically competitive alternative.

Electricity consumption in Guatemala has been steadily increasing during the recent years, challenging the generation sector to keep up with the pace of electricity demand in the long term. To tackle this problem, the government of Guatemala has delineated the Electricity Generation Expansion Plan for the period 2014-2028, proposing several hypothetical future scenarios of the energy mix for electricity production. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate how the fulfillment of this plan would influence energy security and sustainable development prospects in the country.  Following an assessment framework that allows a systematic evaluation of the system, indicators that reflect potential vulnerabilities and sustainability concerns are applied to the scenarios. The results show that energy security in the electricity sector could increase as a consequence of the capacity expansion and transformation of the energy mix to rely more on indigenous sources, taking into consideration scenarios with a more diversified portfolio that include the expansion of biomass and geothermal capacity to compensate for the vulnerability of hydroelectricity to weather events. The prospects for sustainable development in the country can be supported by the provision of secure electricity supply that takes into account efficiency and mitigation measures in the exploitation of natural resources, as well as social impact assessments to ensure that the plan will not affect the livelihood of vulnerable groups and has the possibility to contribute to increase equity in electricity access.