科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C)(2) 課題番号:10680481 研究代表者:早川 直樹 研究期間:1998-1999年度

The rapid and sustained development of the rural regions of South Africa continues to pose an extraordinary challenge to the development community of the country. Policy makers continue to be overwhelmed by the lack of development in the rural areas in spite of the various efforts made to develop them. A review of the publications and development plans of the study region indicates that the planners have for long been pre-occupied with taking limited perspectives of the development planning problems. Development plans have been conceived and implemented in terms of individual sectors instead of looking at their relations with other sectors and regions. This study seeks to make a contribution to the solution of the development problems of the rural areas of the former homeland regions by demonstrating how an integrated approach to the research process and to development planning could make a difference to the lives of the rural communities. This theme is illustrated with reference to the rural energy sector and its relations with the broader regional development problems, challenges and plans of the Sekhukhune district municipality of the Limpopo Province. / GEOGRAPHY / MA (GEOGRAPHY)

We have dealt with the problem arising from the incongruity between the evolution of the electricity system for meeting the objectives of economic growth, and the human/societal requirements of inclusive and affordable development, and environmental compliance, within the purview of sustainability. We conceive and define the concept of sustainability in the context of national electricity system and adopt an indicator-based hierarchical framework to assess, measure and track its sustainability. The approach necessitates prioritization, quantification and aggregation of multi-dimensional indicators of sustainability. We evaluate the Indian electricity system using this framework by benchmarking the actual dimensional indicator values against upper and lower threshold levels to compute a national electricity system sustainability index (NESSI) for India. The estimated NESSI value for India in 2013 is a low 0.377 (benchmark value is 1), which suggest that India has a substantial sustainability gap to bridge. The approach and the results imply that India or any other emerging/developing country needs to have a serious relook at (i) the goals and targets set for the electricity system, (ii) the set of prioritized technology and policy interventions, and (iii) the models and approaches adopted for strategic electricity planning. The findings from our research clearly indicate that countries like India need to adopt “minimizing sustainability gap” rather than “increasing GDP growth” as the sole criterion for deciding about the challenges raised above for the electricity system. We strongly believe that this approach will not only meet the economic development objective set for the electricity system but also help achieving the societal aspirations as well as environmental compliance. We establish that Indian electricity system is poised for an imminent transition into a sustainable system. What constitutes the inputs, the processes and the outcomes of this transition are of immense interest and have been widely debated in the literature. We motivate and implement an electricity system generation expansion model with multi-attribute technology characterization to model the sustainability transition of electricity system and understand the feasibility, cost and carbon emission implications of generation augmentation. We build on the state of the art resource and technology characterization. We obtain the expansion planning requirements for Indian electricity system by superimposing the projected incremental increase in demand with the retirement schedule. Further, building on the recent advances in power system modelling, we formulate the electricity system transition problem as a grouped integer generation scheduling and generation expansion planning model. This formulation accounts for plant startups, minimum loads, operating reserves, ramping limits and plant life. We run multiple experiments by varying the system configurations for a planning horizon of 18 years till 2032 and characterize the system on select indicators under three dimensions of sustainability for each year. Within the select scenarios, NESSI value in the terminal year varies from 0.481 to 0.51 relative to the base year value of 0.377.We throw some light on how the important questions concerning technology pathways for electricity system sustainability transition can be queried. The approach adopted for this research is two pronged. First is to formulate and subsequently answer the question: What is and what should be the electricity system of India? The second is to answer: what are the prospects for transition of electricity system into a sustainable state? How do probable technology pathways manifest in terms of national electricity system? Can renewable energy deliver? Our proposition –which we validate through this research – is to formulate and subsequently answer the questions in two phases. The two phases are briefly detailed below: In the first phase, the question we have attempted to first formulate and subsequently answer is: what is and what should be the electricity system for India? We propose to employ an indicator based approach for this part of the research, which attempts to evaluate India’s electricity system using the sustainability framework. The analysis of the indicators belonging to economic, social, environmental and institutional dimensions of sustainability will provide a deeper understanding of the system, identify and quantify the prevailing sustainability gaps and develop specific targets for interventions. We begin with a survey of literature in the domain of sustainability assessment. We identify and briefly discuss the essential concepts, ideas and methods used in sustainability assessment. We observe the emergence of electricity related concerns in the wider sustainability discourse. Next, we survey the literature on electricity systems and discuss the intersection of energy systems with development. Than we define the sustainable national electricity system and bring out the synergies between measurement of sustainable development and assessment of objectives of electricity systems. We observe cross country variations in electricity system planning objectives. While focus for developed nations has historically been economic and has subsequently included environmental concerns of climate change and pollution. In addition to economic and environmental aspects, the low levels of access as well as consumption are a reality for India and other developing nations. This adds another dimension to the status assessment and subsequent planning of national electricity system of India. Synthesis of sustainability assessment and objectives of electricity system planning in this phase culminates with conception and evaluation of National Electricity System Sustainability Index (NESSI) for India. The underlying theme throughout this phase is our attempt to first formulate and subsequently answer: What is and what should be the electricity system for India? In the second phase, a modeling approach has been developed to optimally prioritize the interventions (energy-technology supply chains) in response to the specific targets (from Phase 1) for planning a sustainable electricity system for India. All the possible supply chain interventions tracking the transitions from energy resources to electricity in the bus bar on grid (as modeled by a Reference Energy System) form the inputs for the mathematical model. The output is the optimal set of interventions as trade-off solutions, which meet the targets set by the sustainability goal. The criteria like cost, efficiency of transformation, emission coefficients and energy resource availability form the basis for developing the optimal plan. We begin this phase with survey of literature on power system modelling. Electricity system planning has been undertaken in academic and planning domains for several decades. It is only recent that, driven by the imminent challenges of de-carbonization, affordability, equity and security- which has resulted in coevolution of several possible technological, behavioral and policy intervention proposals-there is demand for coherent assessment of these propositions for electricity system transition. In our work, we have focused on supply side technology interventions. Supply side technology intervention propositions for electricity system transition more often than not involve variable renewable energy, i.e., solar and wind. Variable renewable energy technologies pose significant modelling challenges because of their characteristic intermittency which induces complex dynamics in the complimentary system, i.e., electricity generating technologies other than renewable energy. We identify tremendous activity in the domain of electricity system modelling with focus on model representation of electricity system constituents which has significant implications for the outcomes of the planning exercises undertaken with these models. Literature synthesis in this phase culminates with our attempt at mathematical modelling of generation technology pathways for electricity system in transition. Undertaking this exercise has involved preparation of model feeds: energy resource supply profiles, generation technology specifications and demand projections. We have done a series of numerical experiments to establish validity of the model. Subsequently we have validated various scenarios for Indian electricity system representing different levels of transitions, which provides insights which we expect will be useful for the stakeholders. The underlying theme throughout this phase is our attempt to answer the questions: How does one understand electricity system transition? How do electricity generating technologies interact amongst each other to yield certain set of system outputs? Can renewable energy deliver? In our pursuit of finding answers to several questions raised at various points in this thesis and alluded to above, we have done a systematic systemic diagnosis of Indian electricity system. We have developed a multi-dimensional and multi-hierarchical indicator based framework to measure national electricity system sustainability. We have assessed Indian electricity system with this framework, to understand if Indian electricity system is sustainable and how it can transition towards a more sustainable state. Based on this understanding, we have investigated electricity generation technology pathways for a transitioning electricity system. We have modelled India as a single region with aggregate temporal profiles of resource availability and hourly loads. Building on the recent literature on power system modelling and their application, this thesis is a systematic exposition of how the important questions of supply side technology portfolio concerning electricity system sustainability transition can be queried. The results are based on several instances of data inputs. Main contributions from our work are: 1. Introducing the concept of sustainability of national electricity system and defining it comprehensively for the first time. 2. Conceptualizing, developing and validating a multi-dimensional and multi-hierarchical indicator-based framework for assessing and benchmarking national electricity system sustainability. This framework is generalizable and applicable to the electricity systems of all the countries for assessing the sustainability status. 3. A composite measure of National Electricity System Sustainability Index (NESSI), which can be used to identify and quantify prevailing sustainability gaps in the national electricity system and provide a goal for sustainability transition of the electricity system through higher NESSI target values. The constituents (dimensions, themes and indicators) of NESSI can enable identification of interventions and fixing of targets for such a transition. 4. Conceptualized, developed and validated an integrated mathematical model of generation expansion planning (supply augmentation) and generation scheduling with extensive operational details for electricity system in transition. This included: Enumeration and characterization of reference electricity system (energy resources, electricity generating technologies and demand for electricity). Demand profiling which involved estimating annual peak demand and demand for electricity, consideration of annual retiring capacity and computation of representative demand profiles (load curves) for past and future years using time-series load data. Modelling variable renewable energy (wind, solar and hydro) by developing representative energy resource availability profiles using time-series data. Harmonizing the extracted temporal energy resource availability and load profiles to preserve the chronological correlations. Explicit modelling of capacity utilization by proposing and implementing unit profile inversion. Effectively, it implies that generation from the variable generation capacity, e.g., solar capacity is upper bounded by the representative profile corresponding to that capacity. Optimally selected generation technology interventions for planning sustainable electricity system for India under select scenarios. 5. Juxtaposition of indicator-based macro model of electricity system sustainability assessment with bottom-up mathematical model of generation expansion planning and generation scheduling to evaluate official Indian scenarios of electricity system planning for sustainability transition. In summary, we have developed and demonstrated an empirical instance of an integrated methodology, beginning from a systematic diagnosis of the national electricity system to a meaningful solution. Through this thesis, we have attempted to understand the alternate future electricity supply transitions, their implications for society and environment and how they are influenced by the planning decisions. In conclusion, there is substantial activity in all stakeholder domains: research activity, actions by NGOs and the government but given the long term nature of probable interventions, sustained efforts will be required to reach the desired outcomes. Future of grid is the biggest system level problem, which we believe we have illuminated to some extent and which could benefit from further research. While planning exercises using complex models are useful in their own right given the complexities of real world close monitoring and scrutiny of the evolving electricity system and timely course corrections will be critical

Aerosols affect the global radiation budget which plays an important role in determining the state of the Earth's climate. The heterogeneous distribution of aerosols and the variety in their properties results in high uncertainty in the understanding of aerosols. Aerosols affect the radiation by scattering and absorption (direct effect) or by modifying the cloud properties which in turn affects the radiation (indirect effect). The current work focuses only on the direct radiative effect of aerosols. The change in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflected flux due to the perturbation of aerosols and their properties is called direct aerosol radiative forcing (ARFTOA). Estimation of ARFTOA using aerosol properties is done by solving the radiative transfer equation using a radiative transfer model. However, before using the radiative transfer model, it has to be validated with observations for consistency. This is done to check if the model is able to replicate values close to actual observations. The current work uses the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model. The output radiative fluxes from SBDART are validated by comparing with the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite data. Under clear-skies SBDART agreed with observed fluxes at TOA well within the error limits of satellite observations. In the shortwave solar spectrum (0.25-4 µm) radiation is affected by change in various aerosol properties and also by water vapour and other gas molecules. To study the effect of each of these molecules separately on the aerosol forcing at TOA, SBDART is used. ARFTOA is found to depend on the aerosol loading (aerosol optical depth – AOD), aerosol type (SSA) and the angular distribution of scattered radiation (asymmetry parameter). The role of water vapour relative to the aerosol layer height was also investigated and for different aerosol types and aerosol layer heights, it was found that water vapour can induce a change of ~4 Wm-2 in TOA flux. The relative importance of aerosol scattering versus absorption is evaluated through a parameter called single scattering albedo (SSA) which can be estimated from satellites. SSA defined as the ratio of scattering efficiency to total extinction efficiency, depends on the aerosol composition and wavelength. Aerosols with SSA close to 1 (sea-salt, sulphates) scatter the radiation and cool the atmosphere. Aerosols with SSA < 0.9 (black carbon, dust) absorb radiation and warm the atmosphere. Over high reflective surfaces a small change in SSA can change forcing from negative (cooling) to positive (warming). This makes SSA one of the most important and uncertain aerosol parameters. Currently, the SSA retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) are highly sensitive to sub-pixel cloud contamination and change in aerosol height. Using the sensitivity of OMI to aerosol absorption and the superior cloud masking technique and accurate AOD retrieval of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), an algorithm to retrieve SSA (OMI-MODIS) was developed. The algorithm was performed over global oceans (60S-60N) from 2008-2012. The difference in SSA estimated by OMI-MODIS and that of OMI depended on the aerosol type and aerosol layer height. Aerosol layer height plays an important role in the UV spectrum due to the dominance of Rayleigh scattering. This was verified using SBDART which otherwise would not have been possible using just satellite observations. Both the algorithms were validated with cruise measurements over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. It was seen that when absorbing aerosols (low SSA values) were present closer to the surface, OMI overestimated the value of SSA. On the other hand OMI-MODIS algorithm, which made no assumption on the aerosol type or height, was better constrained than OMI and hence was closer to the cruise measurement The presence of clouds results in a more complex interaction between aerosols and radiation. Aerosols present above clouds are responsible to most of the direct radiative effect in cloudy regions. The ARFTOA depends not only on the aerosol properties but also on the relative position of aerosols with clouds. When absorbing aerosols are present above clouds, the ARFTOA is highly influenced by the albedo of the underlying surface. Recent studies, over regions influenced by biomass burning aerosol, have shown that it is possible to define a ‘critical cloud fraction’ (CCF) at which the aerosol direct radiative forcing switch from a cooling to a warming effect. Similar analysis was done over BoB (6.5-21.5N; 82.5-97.5E) for the years 2008-2011. Aerosol properties were taken from satellite observations. Satellites cannot provide for aerosols present at different heights and hence SBDART was used to calculate the forcing due to aerosols present only above clouds. Unlike previous studies which reported a single value of CCF, over BoB it was found that CCF varied from 0.28 to 0.13 from post-monsoon to winter as a result of shift from less absorbing to moderately absorbing aerosol. This implies that in winter, the absorbing aerosols present above clouds cause warming of the atmosphere even at low cloud fractions leading to lower CCF. The use of multiple satellites in improving the retrieval of SSA has been presented in this thesis. The effect of aerosols present above clouds on the radiative forcing at TOA is shown to be different between Bay of Bengal and Atlantic Ocean. This was due to the change in SSA of aerosols during different seasons. The effect of aerosol height, aerosol type and water vapour on the TOA flux estimation is also studied using a radiative transfer model.

The thesis concerns of the possibility by using alternative decentralized sources of energy. The first chapter describes current energy situation in the Czech Republic and consideration of future electrical energy consumption and the coverage by the renewable sources. Another part of this chapter describes each types of renewable energy with their advantages and disadvantages related to the Czech Republic. In the second chapter are introduced inputs which are appropriate for the plan of energetic system. The following theoretical chapter deals with each types of alternative energy sources using renewable source including the possibility of the installation and plan for the building. These alternative sources are sorted out by the way of using renewable sources of energy. The theoretical-practical fourth chapter concerns of the heating by the heat pump. For the detailed description was chosen the heat pump which is currently denote as appropriate alternative source of heat in household. With appropriate plan, which the thesis deals with, is this alternative source considered as proper investment. In the last chapter was assembled programme for creating models of energetic flux and calculation for the plan of heating by the heating pump air/water. This model is taken for concrete buildings related to exact outdoor temperature from previous years in concrete locality. In the end was realized validation of the software with the real measurement in concrete building.

Die Bundesregierung plant im Rahmen der Energiewende den Anteil von erneuerbaren Energien an der Stromerzeugung in Deutschland von heute rund 25% auf 80% bis zum Jahr 2050 auszubauen. Damit stehen auch dem Stromsektor in Sachsen grundlegende Veränderungen bevor. Derzeit leistet im Freistaat Sachsen die Braunkohle den größten Beitrag zur Elektrizitätsbereitstellung. Mit dem zunehmenden Ausbau an erneuerbaren Energien steigt der Anteil dargebotsabhängiger Energieträger. Daraus resultieren technische und wirtschaftliche Herausforderungen für das bestehende Energiesystem, wie z.B. die künftige Bereitstellung von Systemdienstleistungen. Mit diesen und weiteren Fragestellungen zur Transformation des Elektrizitätssystems haben sich Nachwuchswissenschaftler der TU Dresden in den vergangenen zwei Jahren im Rahmen des vom Europäischen Sozialfonds – ESF geförderten Projekts EnerSAX auseinander gesetzt. Neben der Erstellung einer Potenzialanalyse für Sachsen wurden sowohl technische Fragestellungen,wie z.B. die Auswirkungen der Integration erneuerbarer Energien auf die Übertragungs-, Verteilungs-und Niederspannungsnetze, als auch ökonomische Fragestellung, wie z.B. die künftige Ausgestaltung der Regelenergiemärkte, untersucht. Durch die Zusammenarbeit der Nachwuchsforscher aus den Bereichen der Elektrotechnik und Energiewirtschaft konnten so integrierte Lösungsansätze zur Ausgestaltung einer weitgehend auf erneuerbaren Energien beruhenden Energieversorgung mit dem Fokus auf Sachsen im transnationalen Kontext erarbeitet werden. Die wesentlichen Ergebnisse aus dem Projekt werden in diesem Buch vorgestellt.

Die Bundesregierung plant im Rahmen der Energiewende den Anteil von erneuerbaren Energien an der Stromerzeugung in Deutschland von heute rund 25% auf 80% bis zum Jahr 2050 auszubauen. Damit stehen auch dem Stromsektor in Sachsen grundlegende Veränderungen bevor. Derzeit leistet im Freistaat Sachsen die Braunkohle den größten Beitrag zur Elektrizitätsbereitstellung. Mit dem zunehmenden Ausbau an erneuerbaren Energien steigt der Anteil dargebotsabhängiger Energieträger. Daraus resultieren technische und wirtschaftliche Herausforderungen für das bestehende Energiesystem, wie z.B. die künftige Bereitstellung von Systemdienstleistungen. Mit diesen und weiteren Fragestellungen zur Transformation des Elektrizitätssystems haben sich Nachwuchswissenschaftler der TU Dresden in den vergangenen zwei Jahren im Rahmen des vom Europäischen Sozialfonds – ESF geförderten Projekts EnerSAX auseinander gesetzt. Neben der Erstellung einer Potenzialanalyse für Sachsen wurden sowohl technische Fragestellungen,wie z.B. die Auswirkungen der Integration erneuerbarer Energien auf die Übertragungs-, Verteilungs-und Niederspannungsnetze, als auch ökonomische Fragestellung, wie z.B. die künftige Ausgestaltung der Regelenergiemärkte, untersucht. Durch die Zusammenarbeit der Nachwuchsforscher aus den Bereichen der Elektrotechnik und Energiewirtschaft konnten so integrierte Lösungsansätze zur Ausgestaltung einer weitgehend auf erneuerbaren Energien beruhenden Energieversorgung mit dem Fokus auf Sachsen im transnationalen Kontext erarbeitet werden. Die wesentlichen Ergebnisse aus dem Projekt werden in diesem Buch vorgestellt.

Kabel sind ein wichtiger Bestandteil des Elektroenergiesystems. Für die Kenntnis des Verhaltens von Kabeln sind Modelle erforderlich, die ihr Verhalten im stationären Zustand und bei transienten Vorgängen hinreichend genau abbilden können. Eine Methode zur Modellierung von Kabeln basiert auf konzentrierten Parametern. Hierbei wird das Kabel durch eine Ersatzanordnung, in der Regel durch eine Kaskade von π-Gliedern, modelliert. Das Prinzip dieser Modelle ist relativ einfach. Allerdings vernachlässigt das bisher verwendete π-Glieder-Kabelmodell die Frequenzabhängigkeit der Kabelparameter. Deshalb wird dieses Modell nur im stationären Zustand verwendet. In dieser Arbeit erfolgt die Entwicklung eines auf π-Gliedern basierenden Kabelmodells, mit dem der stationäre Zustand und die transienten Vorgänge beschrieben werden können. Dabei wird der Einfluss unterschiedlicher Faktoren auf die Resultate des neu entwickelten Kabelmodells sowohl im Frequenz- als auch im Zeitbereich ausführlich untersucht. / Cables are an important part of the electrical energy system. Describing the cable behavior by stationary or transients phenomena requires cable models with proper accuracy. The simulation of transients is more complicated than the calculation of currents and voltages in the nominal frequency range. The model has to represent the frequency dependency and the wave propagation behavior of cable lines. The introduced model is based on a cascaded π-section. A modal transformation technique has been used for the calculation in the time domain. The frequency-dependent elements of the related modal transformation matrices have been fitted with rational functions. The frequency dependence of cable parameters has been reproduced using a vector fitting algorithm and has been implemented into a RLC-network for each π-section. The proposed full model has been validated with measured data.

With the increasing electrification of todays society the electrical grid is experiencing increasing pressure from demand. One factor that affects the stability of the grid are the time intervals at which power demand is at its highest which is referred to as peak demand. This project was conducted in order to reduce the peak demand through a process called peak shaving in order to relieve some of this pressure through the use of batteries and renewable energy. By doing so, the user of such systems could reduce the installation cost of their electrical infrastructure as well as the electrical billing. Peak shaving in this project was implemented using machine learning algorithms that predicted the daily power consumption in school kitchens with help of their food menus, which were then fed to an algorithm to steer a battery according to the results. All of these project findings are compared to another system installed by a company to decide whether the algorithm has the right accuracy and performance. The results of the simulations were promising as the algorithm was able to detect the vast majority of the peaks and perform peak shaving intelligently. Based on the graphs and values presented in this report, it can be concluded that the algorithm is ready to be implemented in the real world with the potential to contribute to a long-term sustainable electrical grid while saving money for the user.

The European Commission's long-standing strategy to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 has rekindled enthusiasm for hydrogen as a key vector that could reduce emissions. The stakeholders in the European energy system have their full attention focused on this vector. Vätgas Sweden, as a market player together with other organizations, seeks through this research to understand the current outlook for the low-carbon hydrogen market in the countries of the Baltic Sea region and Ukraine, which would help to penetrate and strengthen economic and political ties within the European Union. I present insights based on information from 2022 and estimates of future hydrogen production and demand through 2035 within the geographic scope along with interview results from follow-up sessions with project member organizations. This enabled the identification of barriers and drivers for viable business development. The comprehensive global review of hydrogen projects up to May 2024 considered data on project phasing, hydrogen production technology, demand and installed production capacity through harmonized modelling and statistical inference. The analysis explores the main evidence on production technologies and methods of handling blue and green hydrogen to meet the Baltic Sea region's decarbonization targets, examining the potential for trade. I highlight the overlapping barriers and drivers in the hydrogen market of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Sweden and Ukraine. The considered analysis adds a more realistic estimation of hydrogen forecasts by showing a better picture of the context in the Baltic Sea region. Vätgas Sweden plans a series of projects and studies analysing European trends in low-carbon hydrogen production to provide stakeholders, specialists and scientists around the world with the current level of knowledge on the essential barriers and drivers in the period of its industrial emergence. / Europeiska kommissionens mångåriga strategi för att uppnå klimatneutralitet till 2050 har återuppväckt entusiasmen för väte som en nyckelvektor som kan minska utsläppen. Intressenterna i det europeiska energisystemet har sin fulla uppmärksamhet fokuserad på denna vektor. Vätgas Sverige, som marknadsaktör tillsammans med andra organisationer, söker genom denna forskning förstå de nuvarande utsikterna för vätgasmarknaden med låga koldioxidutsläpp i länderna i Östersjöregionen och Ukraina, vilket skulle bidra till att penetrera och stärka ekonomiska och politiska band inom Europeiska unionen. Jag presenterar insikter baserade på information från 2022 och uppskattningar av framtida väteproduktion och efterfrågan fram till 2035 inom det geografiska området tillsammans med intervjuresultat från uppföljningssessioner med projektmedlemsorganisationer. Detta gjorde det möjligt att identifiera hinder och drivkrafter för livskraftig affärsutveckling. Den omfattande globala översynen av väteprojekt fram till maj 2024 tog hänsyn till data om projektfas, väteproduktionsteknik, efterfrågan och installerad produktionskapacitet genom harmoniserad modellering och statistisk slutledning. Analysen undersöker de viktigaste bevisen på produktionsteknologier och metoder för att hantera blått och grönt väte för att uppfylla Östersjöregionens avkolningsmål, och undersöker potentialen för handel. Jag lyfter fram de överlappande barriärerna och drivkrafterna på vätgasmarknaden i Danmark, Estland, Finland, Tyskland, Litauen, Lettland, Polen, Sverige och Ukraina. Den övervägda analysen lägger till en mer realistisk uppskattning av väteprognoser genom att visa en bättre bild av sammanhanget i Östersjöregionen. Vätgas Sverige planerar en serie projekt och studier som analyserar europeiska trender inom vätgasproduktion med låga koldioxidutsläpp för att förse intressenter, specialister och forskare runt om i världen med den nuvarande kunskapsnivån om de väsentliga barriärerna och drivkrafterna under den industriella framväxtperioden. / La estrategia de larga data de la Comisión Europea para lograr la neutralidad climática para 2050 ha reavivado el entusiasmo por el hidrógeno como un vector clave que podría reducir las emisiones. Los actores del sistema energético europeo tienen toda su atención centrada en este vector. Vätgas Suecia, como actor del mercado junto con otras organizaciones, busca a través de esta investigación comprender las perspectivas actuales del mercado del hidrógeno bajo en carbono en los países de la región del Mar Báltico y Ucrania, lo que ayudaría a penetrar y fortalecer los lazos económicos y políticos dentro de la Unión Europea. Presento ideas basadas en información de 2022 y estimaciones de la producción y demanda futura de hidrógeno hasta 2035 dentro del alcance geográfico junto con los resultados de entrevistas de sesiones de seguimiento con organizaciones miembros del proyecto. Esto permitió identificar barreras e impulsores para el desarrollo empresarial viable. La revisión global integral de los proyectos de hidrógeno hasta mayo de 2024 consideró datos sobre las fases de los proyectos, la tecnología de producción de hidrógeno, la demanda y la capacidad de producción instalada a través de modelos armonizados e inferencia estadística. El análisis explora la evidencia principal sobre las tecnologías de producción y los métodos de manejo del hidrógeno azul y verde para cumplir los objetivos de descarbonización de la región del Mar Báltico, examinando el potencial para el comercio. Destaco las barreras y los impulsores superpuestos en el mercado del hidrógeno de Dinamarca, Estonia, Finlandia, Alemania, Lituania, Letonia, Polonia, Suecia y Ucrania. El análisis considerado añade una estimación más realista de las previsiones de hidrógeno al mostrar una mejor imagen del contexto en la región del Mar Báltico. Vätgas Suecia planea una serie de proyectos y estudios que analizan las tendencias europeas en la producción de hidrógeno con bajas emisiones de carbono para proporcionar a las partes interesadas, especialistas y científicos de todo el mundo el nivel actual de conocimiento sobre las barreras e impulsores esenciales en el período de su surgimiento industrial. / BaSeH2, Baltic Sea Region Hydrogen Network