L'accumulation de gaz à effet de serre dans l'atmosphère, produite par des activités anthropiques notamment dans le secteur de l’énergie est une des causes principales du changement climatique. Par conséquent, réaliser une véritable transition énergétique par une décarbonisation des réseaux électriques est devenue un besoin urgent pour atténuer les effets du réchauffement climatique. Dans cette transition, l’introduction des énergies renouvelables a été initiée depuis plusieurs années, principalement en raison de la participation de nouveaux acteurs à ce marché. Aujourd’hui, l’un des grands défis est de maintenir l’équilibre et la sécurité du réseau électrique en tenant compte de la diversité et de la variabilité des ressources énergétiques renouvelables connectées au réseau. L’une des approches permettant de régler ce problème et d’accroître la flexibilité du réseau électrique par ce que l’on désigne comme la Réponse à la Demande (RD). Cette thèse examine précisément ces nouvelles approches et montre l’intérêt de repenser les relations entre les différentes partie-prenantes pour faire émerger des nouveaux modèles d’affaires afin de déployer de nouvelles innovations au service de la transition énergétique. La méthodologie de recherche mise en œuvre de cette thèse consiste en une revue systématique de la littérature et une étude des données empiriques de 15 jeunes entreprises européennes du secteur de l’énergie. En conséquence, la thèse fournit à la communauté de la recherche (1) une méthode de classification pour catégoriser les différents modèles d’affaires de l’énergie (MAEs) et présente une première synthèse des MAE identifiés dans la littérature; (2) un cadre d’analyse des start-ups dans le secteur de l’énergie, complété par l’analyse de 15 start-ups de ce domaine; (3) un outil conceptuel pour l'innovation en matière de RD, appelé Canevas de Modèle d'Affaires de Réponse de Demande (CMARD), qui comprend 12 éléments interreliés. Ce canevas vise à évaluer les activités des offres de RD et à soutenir l'émergence de nouveau modèles d'affaires de RD. Ces résultats permettent de proposer un cadre analytique simplifié des pratiques existantes et peuvent également aider des entrepreneurs ou décideurs à explorer et concevoir de nouvelles offres sur le marché de la réponse à la demande. / The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, produced by human activities in the energy sector is one of the main causes of climate change. Therefore, the decarbonization of power systems has become an urgent need the mitigate to the effects of climate change and achieve the energy transition. The share of renewable energy technologies has been increasing mainly due to the participation of new market players. Today, however, one of the great challenges is to maintain the electricity system’s balance and security despite the large amount of renewable energy resources connected to the grid. One of the approaches to deal with this issue and to increase power system flexibility is the Demand Response (DR). Moreover, scholars argue that business model innovation can act as an energy transition driver. This thesis examines business model innovations in the context of the energy transition by investigating emerging start-up business models. The implemented research methodology in this thesis consists of a systematic literature review and an investigation of empirical data of 15 European energy start-ups. As a result, the thesis provides the research community with (1) a grouping method to classify different Energy Business Models (EBMs) and an initial synthesis of the EBMs identified in the literature; (2) a framework to analyse start-ups in the energy sector, completed with the analysis of 15 energy start-ups; (3) and a conceptual tool for DR innovation, named as the Demand Response Business Model Canvas (DRBMC), which includes 12 interrelated elements. This canvas aims at evaluating DR activities and supporting the emergence of new DR business models. These results can also help entrepreneurs explore new demand response market opportunities, enabling a better understanding and providing a simplified analytic framework of existing business practices.

Il n’existe pas de modèle idéal en matière de transition énergétique. En effet, même si certains pays, à l’instar de la France et l’Italie, disposent d’un système énergétique prenant en compte des objectifs de développement durable, certaines limites peuvent freiner le développement de la transition énergétique. Une mise en oeuvre efficace de la transition énergétique doit nécessairement prendre en compte les exemples des autres pays, ce qui aura nécessairement pour objet d’entraîner une remise en cause profonde des régimes juridiques encadrant le secteur de l’électricité. Les différences qui caractérisent les orientations en matière énergétique en France et en Italie justifient, à notre sens, un rapprochement entre ces deux pays dans le cadre de ce travail. Dans ce contexte, une étude critique des avantages et des limites du régime juridique français, à l’aune du cas italien, est ainsi proposée. L’une des vocations de ce travail est ainsi de faire évoluer positivement les règles de droit français en matière de transition énergétique, à l’aide des mécanismes juridiques du droit comparé. / There is no ideal model for energy transition. Although some countries, such as France and Italy, have an energy system that takes into account sustainable development objectives, various limitations can limit the development of energy transition. For energy transition to take place effectively, the examples of other countries must be taken into account. Such energy transitions of course, will be subject to in-depth scrutiny by the legal regimes that govern the electricity sector. The differences in the energy guidelines in France and Italy justify, in our view, a reconciliation between these two countries as part of this work. In this context, a critical study of the advantages and limitations of the French legal system, in the light of the Italian case, is therefore proposed. One of the objectives of this work is how to positively develop the rules prescribed by French law on energy transition, using the legal comparative law mechanisms.

Net energy exporting countries (NEECs) and net energy importing countries (NEICs) depend on each other for mutual gains. However, NEICs pursue strategic policies to reduce consumption of energy from conventional sources and increase that of renewable energy in order to attain energy security and macro environmental and carbon accountability. On the other hand, NEECs such as Nigeria depend heavily on oil and gas exports to NEICs to generate revenue. As a result of this inter-dependent relationship, this PhD project adopts a dependency theory and strategic issue analysis framework to underpin the study. Accordingly, the study approach is founded on the ideas of pluralism as a social reality and adopted pragmatism as the research approach. Consistent with these approaches, the study was undertaken by analysing both secondary and primary data, including macro-economic statistics of annual time-series dataset (1980-2014) and semi-structured interviews respectively. The quantitative part of the project used Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach. This method was used to investigate and analyse the effect of renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction on Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. The qualitative part involved interviews with twenty senior government officials in Nigeria from six selected Federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), representatives of civil society groups and academicians, to support the quantitative results and answer certain research questions. The short-run quantitative results and qualitative findings show that renewable energy consumption in developed NEICs affects Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. However, the reverse holds true for emerging NEICs. Both the quantitative results and the qualitative findings show that carbon emissions reduction in developed NEICs affects Nigerian oil and gas exports in the long run. Also, the quantitative results show that renewable energy consumption in developed and emerging NEICs does not affect Nigerian oil and gas exports in the long run. However, the qualitative findings only support the quantitative results for emerging NEICs but do not support those of developed NEICs. Similarly, the qualitative findings indicate that other external and internal factors such as discovery of shale oil and gas; improvement in energy efficient technologies; the use of long-term contract in other NEECs; stringent nature of the Nigerian Content Law and lack of passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill amongst others currently contribute in affecting Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. Moreover, the qualitative findings show that global energy transition has an impact on the Nigeria’s oil and gas revenue, savings made to the Nigerian Sovereign Wealth Fund, budget financing and will continue to affect Nigerian revenue and budget if the economy remains undiversified. Finally, the qualitative findings indicate that global energy transition has negatively affected Foreign Direct Investment flow into Nigerian petroleum industry and discoveries of new oil and gas reserves. These findings have several implications. Firstly, Nigerian oil and gas exports are affected by the carbon emissions control regime, which makes future oil and gas revenues uncertain; thereby putting pressure on budget financing and socio-economic growth and development. On this note, there is the need for Nigeria to take cautionary position in the global climate change debate in order not to adversely affect the country’s economic interest. Secondly, the consumption of energy from renewable sources in both developed and emerging NEICs is an opportunity for Nigeria to export not only its conventional energy but also renewable energy if commercially harnessed. This suggests that Nigerian should also invest heavily in renewable energy production. Thirdly, the major findings of this study provide evidence in support of the relevance of dependency theory and strategic issue analysis framework within the context of energy transition in NEICs on one hand, and Nigerian oil and gas exports to these countries on the other. This implies the need for Nigeria to focus on developing internal market trajectories to increase domestic utilisation of its conventional energy rather than being dependent on external markets for the sale of the nation’s energy resources.

La transition énergétique mondiale suppose un développement accéléré des énergies nouvelles et renouvelables pour la production d’électricité (ENRe), ce qui implique de nouveaux défis d’ordre technique, économique et de régulation du secteur électrique. Or, un engagement plus fort des pays émergents et en développement dans des trajectoires de décarbonation profonde de l’économie nécessite un renforcement des politiques de promotion ainsi que la conception d’instruments de régulation mieux adaptés aux spécificités de leurs contextes économiques et institutionnels.Cette thèse traite de la question de la conception, de la mise en place et de l’évaluation de politiques de promotion des ENRe adaptées au contexte des pays d’Amérique Latine. Dans ce but, nous avons tout d’abord recours à l’économie environnementale pour analyser les différents instruments de régulation disponibles, les caractériser et proposer des critères d’évaluation, en nous appuyant sur une revue approfondie de la littérature. Nous réalisons ensuite une étude économétrique de panel afin d’identifier les facteurs déterminants des investissements en nouvelles capacités d'ENRe et de mesurer l’efficacité des politiques. Dans un troisième temps, nous mobilisons la théorie évolutionniste du changement technologique pour analyser en profondeur le processus de mise en place des politiques, les barrières existantes et les résultats obtenus. Cette analyse s’appuie sur trois études de cas du secteur électrique au Chili, au Brésil et en Argentine. Enfin nous explorons les enjeux liés au déploiement massif des ENRe en Amérique Latine à l’horizon 2030-2040 : l’intégration des énergies intermittentes, l’accès au financement et le défi industriel.Nos analyses mettent en évidence que les transformations du contexte économique et institutionnel impulsent une dynamique qui conditionne les choix des politiques publiques ainsi que leur performance. Nous proposons donc les bases d’un cadre analytique pour la conception et l’évaluation de politiques de promotion ambitieuses sur le long terme. Ces politiques doivent être intégrées dans un projet multidimensionnel et cohérent pour le secteur énergétique. Concernant spécifiquement le choix de l’instrument de promotion et ses éléments de design, nous avons mis en exergue quatre principes à prendre en compte spécialement dans le contexte des pays émergents : le niveau de risque pour les investisseurs, le coût total de la politique pour le consommateur, l’adéquation institutionnelle de l’instrument et, enfin, sa flexibilité pour soutenir des technologies ayant différents degrés de maturité technico-économique. Cette flexibilité doit également répondre à des objectifs multiples liés au processus de développement socio-économique de chaque pays. / The transition to a more sustainable energy system requires a much faster development of new and renewable energy technologies for electricity generation (RENe). Thus, involving new challenges in the regulation of electricity sector. Additionally, a stronger commitment by emerging and developing countries for a deeper decarbonization trajectory, calls for the strengthening of renewable energy policies. Such policies include designing regulatory instruments that are better adapted for their specific economic and institutional needs.This thesis deals with the evaluation and the redesign of policies that encourage the diffusion of RENe in the context of Latin America’s countries. To this end, we first use Environmental Economics theory to analyse the different regulatory instruments available, characterize them and to propose evaluation criteria based on a thorough review of the literature. We then carry out a panel data econometric study, to identify the determining factors of investments in regards to new RENe production capacity; and in particular, to measure the effectiveness of such policies. In a third phase, we mobilize the evolutionary theory of technological change to analyse the process of policy implementation, the existing barriers and the obtained results. This analysis is based on three case studies in the electricity sector of Chile, Brazil and Argentina. And finally, we focus on the challenges related to the massive deployment of RENe in Latin America by 2030-2040: the integration of intermittent energy sources, the access to financing and the industrial challenge.Our research shows that the evolution of the economic and institutional context encourages a dynamic which conditions public policy choices as well as their performance. We therefore propose the basis of an analytical framework for the design and assessment of ambitious long-term promoting policies. These policies must be integrated into a multidimensional and coherent project for the energy sector. More specifically, concerning the choice of the policy instrument and its design elements, We have therefore highlighted four principles to be considered, especially in the context of emerging countries. The level of risk for investors, the total cost of the policy for consumers, the institutional competency of the instrument and its flexibility to support technologies with various degrees of technical and economic maturity. Such flexibility must also address multiple objectives related to the socio-economic development process of each country.

Les problématiques de l’énergie et de l’environnement sont un des principaux défis pour l’humanité au XXIème siècle. La croissance mondiale de la demande d’énergie est confrontée aux préoccupations environnementales (y compris la pollution, le réchauffement climatique et la réduction des émissions de CO2), en particulier dans les régions en croissance économique rapide comme l’Asie. Le transfert de l’utilisation des sources d’énergies traditionnelles comme le charbon, le pétrole, vers les sources d’énergie plus propres et des énergies renouvelables est une tendance inévitable à l’avenir. Dans le contexte actuel, le gaz naturel est considéré comme une source d’énergie propre qui jouera un rôle important dans le processus de transition énergétique vers une économie bas-carbone. Les conséquences pour les marchés de gaz naturel peuvent être considérables. La condition d’une telle évolution est de disposer d’une offre en gaz naturel importante. Le développement du gaz non conventionnel, en particulier le gaz de schiste, fournit une opportunité d’expansion de l’approvisionnement gazier mondial comme le montre la « révolution du gaz de schiste » aux États- Unis. Celle-ci a profondément modifié les marchés gaziers régionaux. Toutefois, cette « révolution » n’est guère reproductible à d’autres régions du monde. Cette thèse démontre en particulier qu’en dehors des facteurs géologiques, des conditions institutionnelles (fiscalité, droits de propriété), économiques (prix, technologies) et organisationnelles (libéralisation des marchés) sont nécessaires pour assurer un développement à grande échelle des ressources non conventionnelles. Cette thèse montre que ces conditions ne sont pour la plupart pas réunies ni en Europe ni en Asie (notamment en Chine). Dès lors, une transition par le gaz pour répondre aux enjeux climatiques en Asie se fera par la voie des importations et non par une production propre à la région. A partir de trois scénarios du modèle POLES basés sur des hypothèses de politique climatique, de développement du gaz de schiste et d’augmentation rapide de la demande de gaz dans le mix énergétique, en particulier en Asie, deux principales conclusions émergent. Tout d’abord, l’importance du développement des gaz de schistes aux USA, leur bas coût de production induisent au niveau mondial une offre de gaz abondante et compétitive par rapport à d’autres énergies notamment par rapport au charbon. Par conséquent, même sans politique climatique, les conditions sont réunies pour que la part du gaz naturel puisse croître dans le mix énergétique. Deuxièmement, une politique climatique affirmée a des effets contradictoires quant à l’importance du gaz naturel dans les mix énergétiques des pays asiatiques. D’un côté elle permet une pénétration plus importante du gaz naturel dans leur mix énergétique. Mais dans le même temps, limitant la demande d’énergie, les volumes de gaz naturel demandés ne sont que légèrement plus importants que dans des scénarios sans politique climatique. / Energy and environmental issues are one of the main challenges for humanity in the 21st century. Global growth in energy demand links to environmental concerns including pollution, global warming and reduction of CO2 emissions. In particular, it is an urgent request in rapidly growing developing regions such as Asian countries. Using cleaner energy sources, renewable energy instead of traditional energy sources like coal and oil is an inevitable option in the future. In the current context, natural gas is seen as a clean energy source which plays a major role in the energy transition process towards a low-carbon economy. The consequences for natural gas markets are significant and the condition of this change is an abundant supply of natural gas. The development of unconventional gas, particularly shale gas, provides an opportunity to expand the global gas supply. This is illustrated by the “shale gas revolution” in US which has profoundly changed the regional gas markets. However, this "revolution" is hardly reproducible in other regions of the world. This thesis demonstrates particularly that apart from geological, institutional conditions (taxation, property rights), economic (prices, technologies) and organizational (free markets) are necessary for a large scale development of unconventional resources. This research also shows that most of these conditions are not met in Europe or Asia (especially in China). Therefore, an energy transition by natural gas to meet climate challenges in Asia will be solved through imports, rather than through regional production. From three scenarios of the POLES model based on assumptions about climate policy, shale gas development and rapid increase of demand for gas in the energy mix (particularly in Asia), two main conclusions emerge. The developments of shale gas with low cost in the USA make the global gas supply abundant and more competitive than other energies, particularly coal. Therefore, even without climate policy, the conditions are ripe for the increaseof natural gas proportion in the energy mix. Secondly, a strong climate policy has contradictory effects on the relative share of natural gas in the Asian energy mix. On the one hand, it allows natural gas larger penetration into the energy mix of Asia. But at the same time, with limitation of energy demand, requested natural gas volumes are only slightly higher than in scenarios without climate policy.

Résoudre la crise climatique est un défi intrinsèquement économique. Il s'agit d'inventer une nouvelle économie, moins dépendante des énergies fossiles et capable, face à l'attrait de l'immédiat, de défendre suffisamment les intérêts des générations futures. Partant de ce constat, cette étude repose sur l'idée qu'une réponse normative crédible face aux changements climatiques ne peut passer que par un droit qui soit axé sur la promotion de la transition énergétique et qui garantisse une articulation équilibrée entre les préoccupations économiques de court terme et les préoccupations, à plus long terme, liées à la préservation du climat. L'étude de La prise en compte des aspects économiques du défi climatique dans le régime juridique international du climat vise à déterminer l'importance que les membres du système multilatéral de lune contre les changements climatiques accordent à la nécessité de promouvoir la transition énergétique et d'encadrer l'expression des préoccupations économiques nationales dans le cadre de leur coopération. Fondée sur une analyse de la Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques, du Protocole de Kyoto et de leur droit dérivé, cette recherche démontre la portée limitée des outils élaborés pour réformer les modes de développement ainsi que le haut niveau de protection que la norme internationale garantit aux intérêts économiques immédiats des États. Elle démontre également que la coopération climatique multilatérale tend désormais à être marquée par un mouvement de renationalisation des questions relatives à la promotion de la transition énergétique et à l'articulation des valeurs économiques et environnementales. / Tackling climate change is indisputably an economic challenge. It requires a shift towards a new kind of economy Jess dependent on fossil fuel, and capable to protect the interests of future generations. Given that context, it thus appears essential that international climate policies mainly focus on promoting energy transition and maintaining a balanced approach between short-term economic interests and longer-term benefits associated with mitigating climate change. Based on this assumption, the thesis questions the importance granted by members of the UN climate change regime to the need of setting rules that favor a low-carbon growth model and regulate the pursue of immediate national economic interests. Through a detailed analysis of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and their law-making process, this study first underlines the limited scope of the international tools (such as market mechanisms) specifically designed by member States to promote a low-carbon economy. It also demonstrates that international climate rules ensure to all member States a high level of protection of their national short-term economic interests. Finally, the thesis shows that UN climate cooperation now tends to be characterized by a movement of renationalization of issues related to the promotion of energy transition and the articulation of economic and environmental values.

La lutte contre le changement climatique implique de modifier les modes de production et de consommation actuels pour réduire de façon drastique les émissions de gaz à effet de serre dont la grande majorité est liée à la combustion d’énergies fossiles. Face à ces enjeux, de nombreux pays se sont engagés dans une transition énergétique pour faire évoluer leur système énergétique, notamment électrique de façon à répondre en partie aux exigences d’une économie bas carbone. Pour guider les acteurs dans leurs choix stratégiques, des outils d’aide à la décision s’avèrent efficaces pour identifier les leviers potentiels de réduction des impacts environnementaux, notamment par la méthode d’Analyse du Cycle de Vie (ACV) qui évalue les impacts d’un produit sur tout son cycle de vie. L’un de ses développements, l’ACV conséquentielle, vise à analyser les impacts d’un changement, et prend donc en compte ses effets directs et indirects sur l’environnement. Cette méthode reste encore peu utilisée par les praticiens en raison du manque d’inventaires génériques pour ACV conséquentielle. Ce constat est d’autant plus marquant pour l’électricité, largement utilisée dans la technosphère, dont la production évolue significativement pour s’engager dans la transition énergétique. Les travaux présentés ici visent à proposer une méthode d’élaboration d’inventaires électricité génériques pour ACV conséquentielle, qui intègrent les spécificités techniques du produit électricité, à travers le bouquet énergétique ou mix qui combine les différents moyens de production, variables selon le pays considéré. Afin de parvenir à simplifier les mix de production d’électricité, une typologie est établie à partir de l’étude des émissions de Gaz à Effet de Serre (GES), des mix et de leur décomposition en moyens de production. Elle identifie 4 groupes de pays, classés par émissions GES croissantes, i.e., 0-37 gCO2eq/kWh, 37-300 gCO2eq/kWh, 300-600 gCO2eq/kWh et >600gCO2eq/kWh, et qui possèdent des caractéristiques de composition spécifiques. Afin de se positionner dans une perspective conséquentielle, l’évolution de douze mix électriques de 1960 à 2010 est analysée. L’analyse historique des phénomènes de transition, c’est-à-dire le passage d’un groupe à un autre de la typologie, est ensuite proposée. Un modèle basé sur une optimisation mono-objectif impliquant, dans un premier temps, un critère de minimisation des émissions GES, et puis dans un second temps, un critère de maximisation de la production d’origine renouvelable est développé. Les résultats sont discutés sur la base des données historiques. La méthode développée reste cependant suffisamment générique pour s’appliquer à des évolutions futures de mix. Enfin, une méthode d’élaboration des inventaires génériques est proposée. Prenant en compte les différentes situations auxquelles le praticien pourrait être confronté lors de la réalisation d’une ACV conséquentielle d’un produit, elle rend possible l’élaboration des inventaires électricité génériques pour ACV conséquentielle. L’établissement de données génériques quantifiées nécessiterait l’intégration d’un critère qualitatif d’inertie au changement et la validation de plusieurs cas d’étude à travers une étude statistique pour consolider les résultats / Climate change mitigation involves changes in production and consumption ways to boost a radical decrease in Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions, which come mostly from fossil fuels combustion. To meet these challenges, a lot of countries initiated an energy transition to switch to new energy system, especially concerning electricity production, in such a way that they partly fulfil low carbon economy requirements. To provide decision-makers guidance in their strategic choices, decision-aid tools are useful to identify and reduce environmental impacts burdens. In particular, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) which assesses environmental impacts throughout a product's life cycle is now a recognized and standard approach. Consequential LCA (cLCA), one of its most recent developments, assesses changes consequences considering either direct or indirect effects on environment. Currently, due to the lack of generic consequential Life Cycle Inventories (LCI), cLCA is scarcely used by practicioners. This situation is emphasized for electricity, due to its large involvement in technosphere and its shifts to production modes in the context of energy transition. This work aims at the development of a design methodology for generic inventories for consequential LCA, taking in account electricity technical specificities. Electricity is defined here as a different production means combination (a “mix”) which varies from country to country. To simplify electricity production mix, a typology is set using a GHG emissions study and electricity mix separation in production means. The typology identifies four groups, ranked by increasing GHG emissions, i.e, 0-37 gCO2eq/kWh, 37-300 gCO2eq/kWh, 300-600 gCO2eq/kWh and >600 gCO2eq/kWh, and specific compositions. Considering a consequential perspective, an evolution analysis of twelve selected countries from 1960 to 2010 is then conducted. Thus, an analysis of past transitions, i.e., shifting from a group to another, is given. Amono-objective optimisation model is developed, involving, first, the minimisation of GHG emissions, and secondly, the maximisation of renewable sources contribution. Significant results are then discussed based on historical data. The model is yet generic enough and can be applied to future mixes. Finally, a generic inventory development method for consequential LCA is proposed. Taking into account the different situations that practitioners may potentially meet when performing a consequential LCA of a product, the method makes generic inventory development for consequential LCA possible. The establishment of generic data would yet require the addition of a qualitative inertia-tochange criteria and the validation of various cases using a statistical analysis to strengthen the obtained results.

A transição energética residencial começou a receber especial atenção da comunidade científica nos anos 1970 e 1980, quando se acreditava na ocorrência iminente da Crise da Lenha. Na época, temia-se que o corrente ritmo de consumo de biomassas sólidas em países em desenvolvimento ultrapassaria a capacidade de produção primária dos ambientes naturais, com sérias consequências para as camadas menos abastadas da população destes locais, que se veriam em uma situação de escassez de fontes de energia. Apesar de esta crise nunca haver, de fato, se concretizado, a preocupação com a sua potencial ocorrência estimulou o desenvolvimento de modelos que visavam à interpretação do fenômeno da transição energética residencial decorrente do processo de urbanização e aumento de renda dos usuários finais. Tal interesse culminou na elaboração do modelo da Escada Energética que, de uma maneira geral, previa que o abandono de fontes de energia tradicionais e a adoção de fontes de energia modernas era o resultado do aumento do status social da população. Inicialmente, a Escada Energética se estabeleceu como principal modelo de transição energética residencial. À medida que novos estudos foram desenvolvidos, entretanto, evidências passaram a sugerir que diversos fatores envolvidos na transição energética em países em desenvolvimento não podiam ser explicados pelo modelo. Estas evidências subsidiaram a concepção do modelo do Acúmulo de Combustíveis, segundo o qual a diversificação, e não a substituição, de energéticos seria o resultado do desenvolvimento social da população. Atualmente, não existe consenso sobre qual modelo melhor reflete o fenômeno da transição energética residencial. Como consequência, políticas públicas de acesso a energia e serviços energéticos limpos baseadas nestas diferentes interpretações possuem características e resultados distintos. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho pretende contribuir para a discussão sobre qual modelo de transição energética melhor reflete a realidade dos consumidores residenciais de energia de países em desenvolvimento a partir da apresentação de dois estudos de caso que retratam diferentes facetas da questão. As análises elaboradas indicam que o modelo do Acúmulo de Combustíveis consegue representar com maior fidelidade o fenômeno da transição energética residencial e que políticas públicas estruturadas segundo seu arcabouço teórico podem contribuir mais eficazmente para a melhoria das condições de vida da população. / The residential energy transition began to receive special attention from the scientific community in 70s and 80s, when a Fuelwood crisis was believed to be imminent. At the time, it was feared that the current rhythm of solid biomass consumption would not keep pace with the primary productivity of the forests and other sources of fuelwood, with severe consequences striking the least wealthy households, who would face an energy shortage. Although the referred crisis never really happened, the concern with its potential occurrence stimulated the development of models aiming at interpreting the energy transition phenomenon provoked by the urbanization process and the increase in income of households. Such interest culminated in the elaboration of the Energy Ladder model, which indicated that the abandonment of traditional energy sources and the adoption of modern ones was the result of the increase of the social status of the population. Initially, the Energy Ladder established itself as the main residential energy transition model. As new studies were being developed, however, evidences suggesting that different factors related to the energy transition in developing countries couldnt be explained by the model were found. These evidences supported the conception of the Fuel Staking model, according to which diversification, instead of substitution, resulted from the social development of the population. Currently, there is no consensus on which model better represents the residential energy transition. As a consequence, public policies focused on clean energy and energy services access based on these different interpretations have different characteristics and results. In such context, this work intends to contribute to the discussion on which energy transition model better reflects the reality of households in developing countries by presenting two case studies showing different aspects of the thematic. The analysis presented suggests that the Fuel Stacking model can better represent the residential energy transition phenomenon and that public policies structured according to its theoretical framework are more effective in contributing to increase the living standards of the population.

Nos dias atuais as cidades são o epicentro de uma transformação energética, pois, são elas as principais consumidoras de matéria e energia. Energia fornecida, em sua maioria, através de um sistema convencional, centralizado e ineficiente. Dessa forma, são nos centros urbanos que poderão ser melhor implementadas estratégicas de eficiência energética e conservação de energia. Contudo, antes que os municípios se comprometam com novas iniciativas políticas e investimentos, o primeiro passo é melhorar a compreensão do sistema energético local. Por conseguinte, o objetivo central desta pesquisa é compreender de forma mais integrada o sistema energético de uma cidade através da aplicação de uma metodologia de análise. O município escolhido como estudo de caso é Porto Alegre, por ser uma cidade que se comprometeu em estabelecer mudanças para reduzir as emissões dos gases de efeito estufa, contudo, sem ainda possuir um plano de ação definido. A metodologia do trabalho é qualitativa e quantitativa e foi dividida em três etapas principais: a revisão bibliográfica, o desenvolvimento da metodologia de análise do sistema energético urbano e a aplicação da metodologia proposta. A revisão bibliográfica forneceu a base teórica para o desenvolvimento da metodologia de análise do sistema energético urbano. Esta metodologia prevê o levantamento de dados diversos que se complementam e, dessa forma, possibilitam uma análise integrada e mais aprofundada do sistema energético da cidade. Para tanto, a análise do sistema energético foi dividida em três etapas: caracterização municipal, análise da demanda de energia e levantamento da oferta das principais fontes energéticas locais. Para esta última etapa, visando um exercício concreto de avaliação, especificou-se o potencial de produção de eletricidade através do recurso solar. Os principais resultados da análise do sistema energético de Porto Alegre, entre os anos 2005 e 2014, destacam que o consumo de energia cresceu oito vezes mais que o aumento populacional e menos que a metade do PIB da cidade. Igualmente, no mesmo período, a frota de veículos, assim como o consumo de gasolina, aumentou 13 vezes mais que a população. Entre os setores econômicos analisados o setor transporte foi responsável, em 2014, pelo consumo de 60% da demanda final de energia da cidade. Nesse ano, a fonte de energia mais consumida foi a eletricidade, representando 28,1% do consumo final. Ainda analisando os dados de 2014, verificou-se que o consumo de eletricidade per capita de Porto Alegre pode ser considerado alto, 2,58 MWh/per capita, se igualando ao do Brasil e ao de alguns países desenvolvidos. Em relação ao potencial de produção de eletricidade, a partir da fonte solar, estimou-se um potencial de 2.549 GWh/ano, considerando todo o território da cidade, e de 772 GWh, considerando apenas o território que possuem edificações, aproximadamente 30% da cidade. Isto significa que se todos os consumidores residenciais e comerciais produzissem sua própria energia poderiam ser gerados 2.892 GWh por ano em Porto Alegre. Essa energia seria capaz de suprir 75,8% de toda a demanda de eletricidade da cidade em 2014. Ao final, ressaltou-se a importância de articular o planejamento energético ao planejamento urbano e ao plano de mobilidade urbana, uma vez que o sistema energético urbano está relacionado com os demais. / Nowadays cities at are the epicenter of an energetic transformation. Today, they are the main consumers of matter and energy. Most of that energy supplied through a conventional, centralized and inefficient system. Thus, it is in urban centers that strategic energy efficiency and energy conservation can be better implemented. However, before municipalities commit to new policy initiatives and investments, the first step is to improve understanding of the local energy system. Therefore, the central objective of this research is to understand in a more integrated way the energy system of a city through the application of a methodology of analysis of an urban energy system. The municipality chosen as a case study is Porto Alegre. It was chosen because is a city that has committed itself to establishing changes to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, however, it does not have a defined plan of action. The methodology of the work is qualitative and quantitative and was divided into three main stages, among them: literature review, development of the methodology of urban energy system analysis, and application of the proposed methodology. The literature review provided the theoretical basis for the development of the methodology of analysis of the urban energy system. This methodology determines the collection of diverse data that complement each other and, thus, enable an integrated and more in-depth analysis of the city\'s energy system. In order to do so, the analysis of the energy system was divided into three stages: municipal characterization, analysis of the energy demand and survey of the supply of the main local energy sources. For this last stage, aiming a specific evaluation exercise, was specified the potential of electricity production through the solar resource.The main results of the analysis of the energy system of Porto Alegre, between 2005 and 2014, highlight that energy consumption grew eight times more than the population increase and less than half of the city\'s GDP. Also, in the same period, the car fleet grew 13 times more than the population. Among the economic sectors analyzed, the transportation sector was responsible for the consumption of 60% of the final energy demand of the city, in 2014. In that year, the most consumed energy source was electricity, representing 28.1% of final consumption. The per capita electricity consumption in Porto Alegre was considered high, 2.58 MWh/per capita, which equals that of Brazil and some developed countries. Regarding the potential for electricity production, it was determined a potential of 2,549 GWh/year (considering the entire territory of the city), and 772 GWh (considering only the territory that have buildings, approximately 30% of the city). This means that if all residential and commercial consumers produced their own energy could generate 2,892 GWh per year in Porto Alegre. This energy would be able to supply 75.8% of all city electricity demand. In the end, it was emphasized the importance of unifying the energy planning to the urban planning and to the urban mobility plan, since the urban energy system is related to both.

Although energy transition is considered one of the main challenges of our time, little attention has traditionally been paid to the actors participating in this transition, such as the producers of renewable electricity. Previous energy policy literature and policy- makers have assumed that these producers are incumbent actors of the current energy system, that is to say, large utilities producing both renewable and fossil-fueled electricity. In reality, new types of producers are entering the renewable electricity production market, without much (if any) previous experience in that industry. This Licentiate thesis studies the new entrants of renewable electricity production in order to identify their motives, their responses to policies, and their ways of implementing their projects. This is conducted through the analysis of 37 cases of new entrants in Sweden. A theoretical background, a complete description of the methods, and an overall presentation of the findings are presented in the first part of the thesis, and in the second part of the thesis, four scientific papers studying the new entrants of renewable electricity production from complementary theoretical approaches are presented. Results show that the new entrant group is heterogeneous in several ways. They have different motives, they are affected by different drivers and pressures, and they are faced with different challenges during their entry processes. Despite that, their share of investments represents the majority of those currently being made in renewable electricity production in Sweden. Based on these results, policy implications are drawn and, in particular, the need for policy-makers and energy policy literature to acknowledge the particularities of the new entrants is highlighted.