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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
221

L’aménagement durable, un enjeu pour la santé publique : la position de la France dans le monde / Public health - stake for Sustainable development : the position of France in the international world

Shen, Xin 21 September 2015 (has links)
Lorsqu'on pense à la santé, on se représente immédiatement le rôle des professions médicales, des hôpitaux et cliniques qui traitent la maladie. On ne pense généralement pas aux aménageurs. Mais que faire si l'on invite des urbanistes à contribuer aux efforts de la médecine préventive ? Comment adopter des stratégies d'aménagement qui conduisent à des modes de vie plus sains ?Après les actions conjuguées de la santé publique et de la planification urbaine dans leur lutte contre les épidémies et pour l'amélioration des conditions de vie dans les villes surpeuplées de la fin du 19 e siècle, les deux disciplines se sont séparées. Effectivement, bien que les deux métiers partagent des objectifs similaires, leurs approches méthodologiques diffèrent. Cependant, des décennies plus tard, les deux disciplines doivent se réunir à nouveau pour faire face aux nouvelles épidémies : les maladies chroniques (l'asthme, les allergies), auxquelles il faut ajouter les cancers, les maladies cardiovasculaires et pulmonaires, le diabète et l'obésité, qui semblent liées à la pollution (air, eau, sol) et à l'inactivité physique. Si le développement durable a mis l'accent sur la préservation de l'environnement, il a négligé les défis auxquels font face les populations urbaines défavorisées. L'inégalité territoriale s'aggrave en termes de santé publique. La tendance croissante de la certification et de la normalisation en matière d'aménagement durable peut être considérée comme une occasion de promouvoir la résilience en santé publique. La collaboration entre professionnels de la santé publique et aménageurs devrait favoriser le rapprochement de leurs stratégies / When we think about health, the first topic coming to mind is medical professionals, hospitals and clinics that treat the disease. We do not bind up urban planners together with public health concerns. But what if the planners are invited to contribute to preventive medicine? How to adopt urban plan strategies that lead to healthier lifestyles ? Since the combined actions of public health and urban planning fought against epidemics and improved living conditions in crowded cities of the late 19th century, the two disciplines have been both separated from each other. If medical profession and urban planners share similar tenets and strive towards the same goals, their methodological approaches are different. However, decades later, the two disciplines have to be reunited to address new epidemics such as chronic diseases (asthma, allergies), as well as cancers, cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases, diabetes and obesity, which seem related to pollution (air, water, soil) and physical inactivity. If sustainable development has focused on preserving the environment, it has neglected the challenges facing underprivileged population. The territorial inequality worsens in terms of public health. The growing trend of certification and standardization in sustainable development can be seen as an opportunity to promote public health resilience. Should collaborations between public health professionals and planners encourage the approximation of their strategies
222

Knowledge, beliefs and practice about sexual concurrent partnering amongst education students at a tertiary institution in rural Namibia

Shilongo, Lydia January 2010 (has links)
Doctor Educationis / Background: In an attempt to avert the HIV/AIDS epidemic, more research has been conducted to determine why the epidemic is more devastating in Southern African countries than anywhere else in the world. Heterosexual transmission is believed to be driving the epidemic in many sub-Saharan African countries. Recent research has indicated that having concurrent sexual partners is one of the factors contributing to the fast spread of HIV transmission in this region.Aim: This study aimed to describe the level of knowledge about the risk of HIV transmission posed by concurrent sexual partnering as well as beliefs and practices about concurrent partnering among education students at the Rundu College of Education(RCE) in the Kavango region of Namibia. Concurrent partnering was defined as a situation where a person has more than one sexual partner at the same time, during the twelve months preceding the study.Methodology: There were 374 students registered for the 2009 academic year at RCE.All registered students were targeted for the study and 278 completed the questionnaire,yielding a response rate of 73.4%. The survey described prevalence of concurrent partnering, knowledge about risk posed by concurrent partnering as well as beliefs about concurrent partnering.Data collected was analyzed using Statistical Programs for Social Sciences (SPSS).Descriptive statistics were used to describe the prevalence of sexual concurrency,knowledge about risk posed by concurrent partnering and beliefs about concurrent partnering among the study population. Frequency of concurrency was cross tabulated with demographic variables like age group, sex and year of study as well as by knowledge and beliefs about sexual concurrent partnering.Results: The prevalence of concurrency in this sample was 9.4% with significantly higher prevalence (13.0%) among male students compared to females (5.3%). Males reported knowledge levels of 85.7% to 88.4% while females reported knowledge levels of 89.3% and 93.1%. More men (28.8%) than women (10.7%) agreed with the statement that sexual concurrency is a sign of manhood (p=0.00). Further, more male students(27.9%) compared to female students (6.1%) agreed with the statement that sexual concurrency is part of African culture and should continue (p=0.00).Conclusion: The study results show a high knowledge of risk posed by concurrency. It further reveals that a high number of people believe that concurrency is acceptable especially among men.HIV prevention activities promoting partner reduction and mutual fidelity should be implemented. Such activities should focus more on behavior change rather than on information giving. There is a need to create platforms for community members to debate on cultural beliefs about sexual concurrency.
223

Modeling of parasitic diseases with vector of transmission: toxoplasmosis and babesiosis bovine

Aranda Lozano, Diego Fernando 14 September 2011 (has links)
Resumen: En esta tesis doctoral se presentan tres modelos matemáticos que describen el comportamiento de dos enfermedades parasitarias con vector de transmisión; de los cuales dos modelos están dedicados a la Toxoplasmosis donde se explora la dinámica de la enfermedad a nivel de la población humana y de gatos domésticos. Los gatos juegan un papel de agentes infecciosos del Toxoplasma gondii. La dinámica cualitativa del modelo es determinada por el umbral básico de reproducción, R0. Si el parámetro R0 < 1, entonces la solución converge al punto de equilibrio libre de la enfermedad. Por otro lado, si R0 > 1, la convergencia es al punto de equilibrio endémico. Las simulaciones numéricas ilustran diferentes dinámicas en función del parámetro umbral R0 y muestra la importancia de este parámetro en el sector salud. Finalmente la Babesiosis bovina se modela a partir de cinco ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias, que permiten explicar la influencia de los parámetros epidemiológicos en la evolución de la enfermedad. Los estados estacionarios del sistema y el número básico de reproducción R0 son determinados. La existencia del punto endémico y libre de enfermedad se expone, puntos que dependen del R0, ratificando la importancia del parámetro umbral en la salud publica. Objetivo: Construir modelos matemáticos epidemiológicos aplicados a enfermedades parasitarias (Toxoplasmosis y Babesiosis) con vector de transmisión. Metodología: Para la construcción de los modelos matemáticos epidemiológicos es necesario representar la enfermedad a partir de modelos de flujo, permitiendo ver la dinámica de la población entre los diferentes estadíos de la enfermedad, dichos movimientos son analizados a partir de sistemas dinámicos, análisis matemático y métodos numéricos; con estas herramientas es posible hacer un estudio detallado del modelo, permitiendo calcular parámetros umbrales que dominan la dinámica de la enfermedad y a su vez simular escenarios reales e hipotéticos. / Aranda Lozano, DF. (2011). Modeling of parasitic diseases with vector of transmission: toxoplasmosis and babesiosis bovine [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/11539 / Palancia
224

Improving Message Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

HERRERA TAPIA, JORGE 01 September 2017 (has links)
Data transmission has become a need in various fields, like in social networks with the diverse interaction applications, or in the scientific and engineering areas where for example the use of sensors to capture data is growing, or in emergency situations where there is the imperative need to have a communication system to coordinate rescue operations. Wireless networks have been able to solve these issues to a great extent, but what can we do when a fixed supporting infrastructure is not available or becomes inoperative because of saturation? Opportunistic wireless networks are an alternative to consider in these situations, since their operation does not depend on the existence of a telecommunications infrastructure but they provide connectivity through the organized cooperation of users. This research thesis focuses on these types of networks and is aimed at improving the dissemination of information in opportunistic networks analyzing the main causes that influence the performance of data transmission. Opportunistic networks do not depend on a fixed topology but depend on the number and mobility of users, the type and quantity of information generated and sent, as well as the physical characteristics of the mobile devices that users have to transmit the data. The combination of these elements impacts on the duration of the contact time between mobile users, directly affecting the information delivery probability. This thesis starts by presenting a thorough "state of the art" study where we present the most important contributions related to this area and the solutions offered for the evaluation of the opportunistic networks, such as simulation models, routing protocols, simulation tools, among others. After offering this broad background, we evaluate the consumption of the resources of the mobile devices that affect the performance of the the applications of opportunistic networks, both from the energetic and the memory point of view. Next, we analyze the performance of opportunistic networks considering either pedestrian and vehicular environments. The studied approaches include the use of additional fixed nodes and different data transmission technologies, to improve the duration of the contact between mobile devices. Finally, we propose a diffusion scheme to improve the performance of data transmission based on extending the duration of the contact time and the likelihood that users will collaborate in this process. This approach is complemented by the efficient management of the resources of the mobile devices. / La transmisión de datos se ha convertido en una necesidad en diversos ámbitos, como en las redes sociales con sus diversas aplicaciones, o en las áreas científicas y de ingeniería donde, por ejemplo, el uso de sensores para capturar datos está creciendo, o en situaciones de emergencia donde impera la necesidad de tener un sistema de comunicación para coordinar las operaciones de rescate. Las redes inalámbricas actuales han sido capaces de resolver estos problemas en gran medida, pero ¿qué podemos hacer cuando una infraestructura de soporte fija no está disponible o estas se vuelven inoperantes debido a la saturación de peticiones de red? Las redes inalámbricas oportunísticas son una alternativa a considerar en estas situaciones, ya que su funcionamiento no depende de la existencia de una infraestructura de telecomunicaciones sino que la conectividad es a través de la cooperación organizada de los usuarios. Esta tesis de investigación se centra en estos tipos de redes oportunísticas y tiene como objetivo mejorar la difusión de información analizando las principales causas que influyen en el rendimiento de la transmisión de datos. Las redes oportunísticas no dependen de una topología fija, sino que dependen del número y la movilidad de los usuarios, del tipo y cantidad de información generada y enviada, así como de las características físicas de los dispositivos móviles que los usuarios tienen para transmitir los datos. La combinación de estos elementos influye en la duración del tiempo de contacto entre usuarios móviles, afectando directamente a la probabilidad de entrega de información. Esta tesis comienza presentando un exhaustivo estudio del ``estado del arte", donde presentamos las contribuciones más importantes relacionadas con esta área y las soluciones existentes para la evaluación de las redes oportunísticas, tales como modelos de simulación, protocolos de enrutamiento, herramientas de simulación, entre otros. Tras ofrecer esta amplia compilación de investigaciones, se evalúa el consumo de recursos de los dispositivos móviles que afectan al rendimiento de las aplicaciones de redes oportunísticas, desde el punto de vista energético así como de la memoria. A continuación, analizamos el rendimiento de las redes oportunísticas considerando tanto los entornos peatonales como vehiculares. Los enfoques estudiados incluyen el uso de nodos fijos adicionales y diferentes tecnologías de transmisión de datos, para mejorar la duración del contacto entre dispositivos móviles. Finalmente, proponemos un esquema de difusión para mejorar el rendimiento de la transmisión de datos basado en la extensión de la duración del tiempo de contacto, y de la probabilidad de que los usuarios colaboren en este proceso. Este enfoque se complementa con la gestión eficiente de los recursos de los dispositivos móviles. / La transmissió de dades s'ha convertit en una necessitat en diversos àmbits, com ara en les xarxes socials amb les diverses aplicacions d'interacció, o en les àrees científiques i d'enginyeria, en les quals, per exemple, l'ús de sensors per a capturar dades creix en l'actualitat, o en situacions d'emergència en què impera la necessitat de tenir un sistema de comunicació per a coordinar les operacions de rescat. Les xarxes sense fil han sigut capaces de resoldre aquests problemes en gran manera, però què podem fer quan una infraestructura de suport fixa no està disponible, o bé aquestes es tornen inoperants a causa de la saturació de peticions de xarxa? Les xarxes sense fil oportunistes són una alternativa que cal considerar en aquestes situacions, ja que el funcionament d'aquestes xarxes no depèn de l'existència d'una infraestructura de telecomunicacions, sinó que la connectivitat s'hi aconsegueix a través de la cooperació organitzada dels usuaris. Aquesta tesi de recerca se centra en aquest tipus de xarxes, i té com a objectiu millorar la difusió d'informació en xarxes oportunistes tot analitzant les principals causes que influeixen en el rendiment de la transmissió de dades. Les xarxes oportunistes no depenen d'una topologia fixa, sinó del nombre i la mobilitat dels usuaris, del tipus i la quantitat d'informació generada i enviada, i de les característiques físiques dels dispositius mòbils que els usuaris tenen per a transmetre les dades. La combinació d'aquests elements influeix en la durada del temps de contacte entre usuaris mòbils, i afecta directament la probabilitat de lliurament d'informació. Aquesta tesi comença amb un estudi exhaustiu de l'estat de la qüestió, en què presentem les contribucions més importants relacionades amb aquesta àrea i les solucions oferides per a l'avaluació de les xarxes oportunistes, com ara models de simulació, protocols d'encaminament o eines de simulació, entre d'altres. Després de mostrar aquest ampli panorama, s'avalua el consum dels recursos dels dispositius mòbils que afecten l'acompliment de les aplicacions de xarxes oportunistes, tant des del punt de vista energètic com de la memòria. A continuació, analitzem l'acompliment de xarxes oportunistes considerant tant els entorns de vianants com els vehiculars. Els enfocaments estudiats inclouen l'ús de nodes fixos addicionals i diferents tecnologies de transmissió de dades per a millorar la durada del contacte entre dispositius mòbils. Finalment, proposem un esquema de difusió per a millorar el rendiment de la transmissió de dades basat en l'extensió de la durada del temps de contacte, i de la probabilitat que els usuaris col·laboren en aquest procés. Aquest enfocament es complementa amb la gestió eficient dels recursos dels dispositius mòbils. / Herrera Tapia, J. (2017). Improving Message Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/86129 / TESIS
225

Makro-epidemické modelování: Metoda hlubokého učení / Macro-Epidemic Modelling: A Deep Learning Approach

Žemlička, Jan January 2021 (has links)
I develop a novel method for computing globally accurate solutions to recur- sive macro-epidemic models featuring aggregate uncertainty and a potentially large number of state variables. Compared to the previous literature which either restricts attention to perfect-foresight economies amendable to sequence- space representation or focuses on highly simplified, low dimensional models that could can be analyzed using standard dynamic programming and linear projection techniques, I develop a deep learning-based algorithm that can han- dle rich environments featuring both aggregate uncertainty and large numbers of state variables. In addition to solving for particular model equilibria, I show how the deep learning method could be extended to solve for a whole set of models, indexed by the parameters of government policy. By pre-computing the whole equilibrium set, my deep learning method greatly simplifies compu- tation of optimal policies, since it bypasses the need to re-solve the model for many different values of policy parameters. 1
226

INTEGRATED MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR DYNAMIC INFORMATION FLOW AND TRAFFIC FLOW UNDER VEHICLE-TO-VEHICLE COMMUNICATIONS: THEORETICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLICATION

Yong Hoon Kim (8083247) 05 December 2019
<div>Advances in information and communication technologies enable new paradigms for connectivity involving vehicles, infrastructure, and the broader road transportation system environment. Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications under the aegis of the connected vehicle are being leveraged for novel applications related to traffic safety, management, and control, which lead to a V2V-based traffic system. Within the framework of a V2V-based traffic system, this study proposes an integrated modeling framework to model the dynamics of a V2V-based traffic system that entails spatiotemporal interdependencies among the traffic flow dynamics, V2V communication constraints, the dynamics of information flow propagation, and V2V-based application. The proposed framework systematically exploits their spatiotemporal interdependencies by theoretical and computational approaches.</div><div>First, a graph-based multi-layer framework is proposed to model the V2V-based advanced traveler information system (ATIS) as a complex system which is comprised of coupled network layers. This framework addresses the dynamics of each physical vehicular traffic flow, inter-vehicle communication, and information flow propagation components within a layer, while capturing their interactions among layers. This enables the capabilities to transparently understand the spatiotemporal evolution of information flow propagation through a graph structure. A novel contribution is the systematic modeling of an evolving information flow network that is characterized as the manifestation of spatiotemporal events in the other two networks to enhance the understanding of the information flow evolution by capturing the dynamics of the interactions involving the traffic flow and the inter-vehicle communication layers. The graph-based approach enables the computationally efficient tracking of information propagation using a simple graph-based search algorithm and the computationally efficient storage of information through a single graph database.</div><div>Second, this dissertation proposes analytical approaches that enable theoretical investigation into the qualitative properties of information flow propagation speed. The proposed analytical models, motivated from spatiotemporal epidemiology, introduce the concept of an information flow propagation wave (IFPW) to facilitate the analysis of the information propagation characteristics and impacts of traffic dynamics at a macroscopic level. The first model consists of a system of difference equations in the discrete-space and discrete-time domains where an information dissemination is described in the upper layer and a vehicular traffic flow is modeled in the lower layer. This study further proposes a continuous-space and continuous-time analytical model that can provide a closed-form solution for the IFPW speed to establish an analytical relationship between the IFPW speed and the underlying traffic flow dynamics. It can corporate the effects of congested traffic, such as the backward traffic propagation wave, on information flow propagation. Thereby, it illustrates the linkage between information flow propagation and the underlying traffic dynamics. Further, it captures V2V communication constraints in a realistic manner using a probabilistic communication kernel (which captures the probability).<br></div><div>Third, within the integrated modeling framework, this dissertation captures the impact of information flow propagation on traffic safety and control applications. The proposed multi-anticipative forward collision warning system predicts the driver’s maneuver intention using a coupled hidden Markov model, which is one of statistical machine learning techniques. It significantly reduces the false alarm rates by addressing the uncertainty associate improves the performance of the future motion prediction, while currently available sensor-based kinematic models for addressing the uncertainty associated with the future motion prediction. A network-level simulation framework is developed to investigate a V2V-based ATIS in a large-scale network by capturing its inter-dependencies and feedback loop. This modeling framework provides the understanding of the relationship between the travelers’ routing decisions and information flow propagation.</div><div>This thesis provides a holistic understanding of information flow propagation characteristics in space and time by characterizing interactions among information flow propagation, and underlying traffic flow, and V2V communications characteristics. The proposed models and the closed-form solution of IFPW speed can help in designing effective V2V-based traffic systems, without relying on computationally expensive numerical methods. An innovative aspect of this approach represents a building block to develop both descriptive capabilities and prescriptive strategies related to propagating the flow of useful information efficiently and synergistically generating routing mechanisms that enhance the traffic network performance. Given the lack of appropriate methodologies to characterize the information flow propagation, this thesis expects to make a novel and significant contribution to understanding the characteristics of V2V-based traffic systems and their analysis.</div>
227

Precise Analysis of Epidemic Algorithms / Analyse précise des algorithmes épidémiques

Kostrygin, Anatolii 29 August 2017 (has links)
La dissémination collaborative d'une information d'un agent à tous les autres agents d'un système distribué est un problème fondamental qui est particulièrement important lorsque l'on veut obtenir des algorithmes distribués qui sont à la fois robustes et fonctionnent dans un cadre anonyme, c'est-à-dire sans supposer que les agents possèdent des identifiants distincts connus. Ce problème, connu sous le nom de problème de propagation de rumeur , est à la base de nombreux algorithmes de communication sur des réseaux de capteurs sans-fil [Dimakis et al. (2010)] ou des réseaux mobiles ad-hoc. Il est aussi une brique de base centrale pour de nombreux algorithmes distribués avancés [Mosk-Aoyama et Shah (2008)].Les méthodes les plus connues pour surmonter les défis de robustesse et d'anonymat sont les algorithmes basés sur les ragots ( gossip-based algorithms ), c'est-à-dire sur la paradigme que les agents contact aléatoirement les autres agents pour envoyer ou récupérer l'information. Nousproposons une méthode générale d'analyse de la performance des algorithmes basés sur les ragots dans les graphes complets. Contrairement aux résultats précédents basés sur la structure précise des processus étudiés, notre analyse est basée sur la probabilité et la covariance des évènements correspondants au fait qu'un agent non-informé s'informe. Cette universalité nous permet de reproduire les résultats basiques concernant les protocoles classiques de push, pull et push-pull ainsi qu'analyser les certaines variantions telles que les échecs de communications ou les communications simultanés multiples réalisées par chaque agent. De plus, nous sommescapables d'analyser les certains modèles dynamiques quand le réseaux forme un graphe aléatoire échantillonné à nouveau à chaque étape [Clementi et al. (ESA 2013)]. Malgré sa généralité, notre méthode est simple et précise. Elle nous permet de déterminer l'espérance du temps de la diffusion à une constante additive près, ce qu'il est plus précis que la plupart des résultatsprécédents. Nous montrons aussi que la déviation du temps de la diffusion par rapport à son espérance est inférieure d'une constante r avec la probabilité au moins 1 − exp(Ω(r)).À la fin, nous discutons d'une hypothèse classique que les agents peuvent répondre à plusieurs appels entrants. Nous observons que la restriction à un seul appel entrant par agent provoque une décélération importante du temps de la diffusion pour un protocole de push-pull. En particulier, une phase finale du processus prend le temps logarithmique au lieu du temps double logarithmique. De plus, cela augmente le nombre de messages passés de Θ(n log log n) (valeur optimale selon [Karp et al. (FOCS 2000)]) au Θ(n log n) . Nous proposons une variation simple du protocole de push-pull qui rétablit une phase double logarithmique à nouveau et donc le nombre de messages passés redescend sur sa valeur optimal. / Epidemic algorithms are distributed algorithms in which the agents in thenetwork involve peers similarly to the spread of epidemics. In this work, we focus on randomized rumor spreading -- a class of epidemic algorithms based on the paradigm that nodes call random neighbors and exchange information with these contacts. Randomized rumor spreading has found numerous applications from the consistency maintenance of replicated databases to newsspreading in social networks. Numerous mathematical analyses of different rumor spreading algorithms can be found in the literature. Some of them provide extremely sharp estimates for the performance of such processes, but most of them are based on the inherent properties of concrete algorithms.We develop new simple and generic method to analyze randomized rumor spreading processes in fully connected networks. In contrast to all previous works, which heavily exploit the precise definition of the process under investigation, we only need to understand the probability and the covariance of the events that uninformed nodes become informed. This universality allows us to easily analyze the classic push, pull, and push-pull protocols both in their pure version and in several variations such as when messages fail with constant probability or when nodes call a random number of others each round. Some dynamic models can be analyzed as well, e.g., when the network is a random graph sampled independently each round [Clementi et al. (ESA 2013)]. Despite this generality, our method determines the expected rumor spreading time precisely apart from additive constants, which is more precise than almost all previous works. We also prove tail bounds showing that a deviation from the expectation by more than an additive number of r rounds occurs with probability at most exp(−Ω(r)).We further use our method to discuss the common assumption that nodes can answer any number of incoming calls. We observe that the restriction that only one call can be answered leads to a significant increase of the runtime of the push-pull protocol. In particular, the double logarithmic end phase of the process now takes logarithmic time. This also increases the message complexity from the asymptotically optimal Θ(n log log n) [Karp, Shenker, Schindelhauer, Vöcking (FOCS 2000)] to Θ(n log n). We propose a simple variation of the push-pull protocol that reverts back to the double logarithmic end phase and thus to the Θ(n log log n) message complexity.
228

The Impacts of the Opioid Epidemic on Child Welfare Systems in Appalachian and Non-Appalachian Ohio Counties

Chase, Laura M. January 2019 (has links)
No description available.
229

[en] POISSON REGRESSION TO ANALYZE THE INCIDENCE OF DEATHS FROM IN THE CITIES OF RIO DE JANEIRO: A SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC APPROACH / [pt] REGRESSÃO DE POISSON PARA ANÁLISE DA INCIDÊNCIA DE ÓBITOS DE COVID-19 NAS CIDADES DO RIO DE JANEIRO: UMA ABORDAGEM SÓCIO-DEMOGRÁFICA

DAYANA XIMENES DOS SANTOS FRAZAO 23 June 2022 (has links)
[pt] Desde fevereiro de 2020 a pandemia gerada pelo novo coronavírus SarsCoV-2, vírus gerador da doença COVID-19, tem causado muitos óbitos, principalmente nos grandes centros urbanos. No Brasil, um dos estados mais afetados foi o Rio de Janeiro que, apesar de todas as ações feitas para mitigar o avanço da COVID-19, chegou em 01 de março de 2021 a uma taxa de mortalidade de 206,9 por cento, que corresponde a aproximadamente 207 óbitos a cada mil habitantes. No entanto, os municípios do RJ foram atingidos de maneira distinta, onde a cidade menos afetada alcançou 9,7 por cento e a mais afetada 331,3 por cento. Estudos prévios da literatura especializada indicam que a principal razão desta discrepância pode ser associada à fatores relacionados a população, renda, educação, saúde, economia, território e ambiente. Portanto, esse trabalho tem como principal objetivo identificar os principais fatores socioeconômicos, sociodemográficos e de acesso a recursos hospitalares que estão associadas a taxa de mortalidade oriunda do Sars-CoV-2 nos noventa e dois municípios do estado do Rio de Janeiro com base no modelo de Regressão de Poisson, no período de 01 de março de 2020 a 01 de março de 2021, contabilizando 12 meses. A partir do modelo escolhido foi possível detectar que dez dos onze fatores analisados influenciam na taxa de mortalidade. Sendo os fatores, Índice de desenvolvimento humano municipal (IDHM), Renda per capita (RDPC), Percentual de pobres (PMPOB), Produto interno bruto (PIB), Taxa de frequência bruta ao superior (T_FBSUPER), percentual de aglomerados subnormais (PER_AGSN), Densidade demográfica, Número de leitos hospitalares do SUS por habitante, Número de leitos hospitalares totais por habitante e Número de respiradores por habitante. Assim, os resultados obtidos com base nesses fatores analisados podem auxiliar na criação de ações mitigadoras mais direcionadas e eficientes, de acordo com as características dos municípios do estado do Rio de Janeiro. / [en] Since February 2020 the pandemic generated by the new coronavirus SarsCoV-2, the virus generating the disease COVID-19, has caused many deaths, mainly in large urban centers. In Brazil, one of the most affected states was Rio de Janeiro, which, despite all the actions taken to mitigate the progress of COVID19, reached on March 1, 2021 a mortality rate of 206.9 percent, which corresponds to approximately 207 deaths per thousand inhabitants. However, the Rio de Janeiro municipalities were affected differently, where the least affected city reached 9.7 percent and the most affected 331.3 percent. Previous studies in the specialized literature indicate that the main reason for this discrepancy may be associated with factors related to population, income, education, health, economy, territory, and environment. Therefore, this work has as main objective to identify the main socioeconomic, socio-demographic factors and access to hospital resources that are associated with the mortality rate from Sars-CoV-2 in the ninety-two municipalities in the state of Rio de Janeiro based on the Poisson Regression model, in the period from March 01, 2020 to March 01, 2021, accounting for 12 months. From the model chosen it was possible to detect those ten of the eleven factors analyzed influence the mortality rate. The factors being, municipal human development index (IDHM), per capita income (RDPC), percentage of poor (PMPOB), gross domestic product (GDP), gross attendance rate to higher (T_FBSUPER), percentage of subnormal settlements (PER_AGSN), demographic density, number of SUS hospital beds per inhabitant, number of total hospital beds per inhabitant and number of respirators per inhabitant. Thus, the results obtained based on these analyzed factors can help in the creation of more targeted and efficient mitigating actions, according to the characteristics of the municipalities in the state of Rio de Janeiro.
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Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 Over Varied Contact Networks

Solorzano, Ryan L 01 June 2021 (has links) (PDF)
When attempting to mitigate the spread of an epidemic without the use of a vaccine, many measures may be made to dampen the spread of the disease such as physically distancing and wearing masks. The implementation of an effective test and quarantine strategy on a population has the potential to make a large impact on the spread of the disease as well. Testing and quarantining strategies become difficult when a portion of the population are asymptomatic spreaders of the disease. Additionally, a study has shown that randomly testing a portion of a population for asymptomatic individuals makes a small impact on the spread of a disease. This thesis simulates the transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19, SARSCoV- 2, in contact networks gathered from real world interactions in five different environments. In these simulations, several testing and quarantining strategies are implemented with a varying number of tests per day. These strategies include a random testing strategy and several uniform testing strategies, based on knowledge of the underlying network. By modeling the population interactions as a graph, we are able to extract properties of the graph and test based on those metrics, namely the degree of the network. This thesis found many of the strategies had a similar performance to randomly testing the population, save for testing by degree and testing the cliques of the graph, which was found to consistently outperform other strategies, especially on networks that are more dense. Additionally, we found that any testing and quarantining of a population could significantly reduce the peak number of infections in a community.

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