Submitted by Synthia Santana (synthiak@gmail.com) on 2016-08-25T02:11:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_synthiasantana_fgv_2016.pdf: 773575 bytes, checksum: da0b6a9c0a54bdbdaf151d619733b1b9 (MD5) / Rejected by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br), reason: Prezada Synthia, Favor alterar a ficha catalográfica para o tamanho padrão, pois em seu trabalho ele se encontra diminuído. Atenciosamente, Letícia Monteiro 3799-3631 on 2016-08-25T12:43:35Z (GMT) / Submitted by Synthia Santana (synthiak@gmail.com) on 2016-08-25T13:53:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_synthiasantana_fgv_2016.pdf: 772567 bytes, checksum: f883200bc436b2dc33ab5879fb3dfaf0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br) on 2016-08-25T14:01:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_synthiasantana_fgv_2016.pdf: 772567 bytes, checksum: f883200bc436b2dc33ab5879fb3dfaf0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-25T14:20:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_synthiasantana_fgv_2016.pdf: 772567 bytes, checksum: f883200bc436b2dc33ab5879fb3dfaf0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-07-29 / The wide availability of data at the firm level in the past twenty years has opened a new range of opportunities for testing important economic theories. In this thesis we aim to explore the complementarity between international trade and investments on innovation in the Brazilian manufacturing industry. In this framework we recognize that innovation is important for firms both because of the positive externalities that it exhibits as with regard to the social returns it provides. For this reason, governments often subsidize these investments, especially the riskiest ones. However, it is still poorly understood how subsidized firms perform over time as we make clear in the first chapter. Although the Economic Subvention Program (ESP) operated by FINEP has aimed at increase innovation activities and the competitiveness of Brazilian companies, the empirical exercise reveals that between 2006 and 2009 there was no significant impact on variables such as productivity, wages per employee, entry/survival in the international market and other relevant policy outcomes. In the second chapter we show that there are gains after entry into the international market for the exporters in the period 1998-2011. Such learning by exporting effects explore innovation as a relevant channel once newly exporting firms have access to inputs, machineries, processes and higher technological standards as those adopted domestically. In the empirical exercise we show that the starters spend significantly more on innovation after entry, compared with extremely similar but essentially domestic firms. The results are robust to several starters categories and are stronger for the period 2004-2008. / A ampla disponibilidade de dados ao nível da firma nos últimos vinte anos abriu um novo leque de oportunidades para o teste de teorias econômicas importantes. Nesta tese pretendemos explorar a complementaridade entre a inserção internacional das empresas e os investimentos em inovação na indústria de transformação brasileira. No arcabouço que exploramos a inovação é importante para as firmas tanto em virtude das externalidades positivas que exibem quanto em termos dos retornos sociais proporcionados. Por este motivo, os governos subsidiam parte desses investimentos, especialmente aqueles que envolvem maior risco. Entretanto, ainda se sabe pouco com relação a como as firmas subsidiadas se comportam ao longo do tempo conforme fica evidente no primeiro capítulo. Embora o Programa de Subvenção Econômica operado pela FINEP tenha por objetivo o aumento significativo das atividades de inovação e o incremento da competitividade das empresas, o exercício empírico revela que entre 2006 e 2009 não houve impacto expressivo em variáveis como produtividade, salário por trabalhador, entrada/permanência no mercado internacional e outros outcomes relevantes. No segundo capítulo mostramos que há ganhos subsequentes à entrada no mercado internacional para as firmas exportadoras com relação ao período 1998-2011. Tal efeito aprendizado do comércio internacional utiliza a inovação como um canal relevante uma vez que tais firmas passam a ter acesso a insumos, equipamentos, processos e padrões tecnológicos superiores àqueles praticados domesticamente. No exercício empírico realizado mostramos que as empresas estreantes no mercado internacional gastam significativamente mais em inovação posteriormente à estreia, comparado com empresas extremamente semelhantes mas essencialmente domésticas. Os resultados são robustos a diversas categorias de estreia e são mais fortes para o período 2004-2008.

The purpose of this study was to investigate internationalisation of Ethiopian SMEs by examining internal and external factors that motivate or restrict internationalization process and the impact of internal and external barriers on SMEs export performance. The small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) sector in Ethiopia is a significant group within the economy in terms of firm numbers and total employment. However, the SMEs sector’s share of exports is disproportionately small, which raised considerable research concerns. Firm export propensity and export performance were the dependent variables and export stimuli and barrier factors were used as explanatory variables. The study was conducted through mixed research design. A questionnaire was administered to 90(36 exporting and 54 nonexporting) SMEs in Leather and Leather Products Industry in Addis Ababa selected through stratified random sampling. In order to complement survey results nine (4 exporting and 5 non-exporting) SMEs were selected through critical case purposive sampling and an in-depth interviews were conducted. Statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS 20) was used to analyse the quantitative data whereas, qualitative data were analysed manually. Analytical techniques used were, Chisquare test of independence, Spearman rank order correlation, factor analysis, binary logistic regression analysis and multiple regression analysis. The statistical results of binary logistic regression analysis and chi-square tests indicated that managerial factors, internal marketing factors and foreign government related factors, firm ownership and size are the most significant motivators of SMEs internationalisation in Ethiopia. On the contrary the result showed that, logistics problem, insufficient finance, functional barriers, lack of export knowledge and information, procedural barriers and international trade barriers are the factors hindering it. Further analysis was conducted to examine the impact of export barriers on performance of firms. The result of multiple regression analysis indicated that, export barriers significantly and negatively affect export performance. The overall results revealed that explanatory variables used in the analysis significantly predict the dependent variable at 95% confidence level. Considering these results numerous implications for theory, practice, and future research were recommended. Finally, the study concluded that internationalisation of SMEs has to be encouraged by mitigating both internal and external barriers identified in this study. / Business Management / D. Admin. (Business Management)

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T13:53:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AnaCRC_DISSERT.pdf: 1090222 bytes, checksum: a92dae0fbb1fca24dc35e58f29896a30 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-09-24 / As micro e pequenas empresas, ao mesmo tempo em que exercem um papel extremamente relevante na estrutura produtiva da economia brasileira pelo grande n?mero de empreendedores existentes e expressivo volume de pessoal ocupado, perdem competitividade ao se deparar com entraves ao seu desenvolvimento, sejam eles em ?mbito gerencial, financeiro, burocr?tico ou estrutural. Com base nesse contexto, o estudo procura identificar em que medida, na percep??o das MPEs exportadoras do Rio Grande do Norte, as exig?ncias burocr?ticas do processo exportador afetam o seu desempenho no com?rcio exterior. Como exig?ncias burocr?ticas compreende-se o conjunto de normas, regras e procedimentos e documentos que disciplinam o processo exportador, enquanto desempenho ? entendido como os resultados da atividade econ?mica medido atrav?s do crescimento das vendas para o mercado externo; das demandas de produtos exportados n?o atendidas e da amplia??o do mercado internacional. A pesquisa realizada ? de car?ter censit?rio, desenvolvida junto a quatorze MPEs do estado, atuantes regularmente no com?rcio exterior nos ?ltimos tr?s anos (2009-2011), utilizando aplica??o de question?rio, assim como uma consulta a dados secund?rios dispon?veis. A an?lise dos dados levantados revelou que, efetivamente, na percep??o dos respondentes, fatores externos como o custo do processo de exporta??o, falta de incentivo do governo, excesso de controle dos ?rg?os p?blicos e a infraestrutura log?stica do estado exercem influ?ncia na pequena participa??o das MPEs nas exporta??es do Brasil e do Nordeste, enquanto o bom desempenho exportador destas relaciona-se a fatores gerenciais, com destaque para investimentos na estrutura organizacional da empresa, conhecimento do mercado internacional e bom relacionamento com clientes e mercados / As micro e pequenas empresas, ao mesmo tempo em que exercem um papel extremamente relevante na estrutura produtiva da economia brasileira pelo grande n?mero de empreendedores existentes e expressivo volume de pessoal ocupado, perdem competitividade ao se deparar com entraves ao seu desenvolvimento, sejam eles em ?mbito gerencial, financeiro, burocr?tico ou estrutural. Com base nesse contexto, o estudo procura identificar em que medida, na percep??o das MPEs exportadoras do Rio Grande do Norte, as exig?ncias burocr?ticas do processo exportador afetam o seu desempenho no com?rcio exterior. Como exig?ncias burocr?ticas compreende-se o conjunto de normas, regras e procedimentos e documentos que disciplinam o processo exportador, enquanto desempenho ? entendido como os resultados da atividade econ?mica medido atrav?s do crescimento das vendas para o mercado externo; das demandas de produtos exportados n?o atendidas e da amplia??o do mercado internacional. A pesquisa realizada ? de car?ter censit?rio, desenvolvida junto a quatorze MPEs do estado, atuantes regularmente no com?rcio exterior nos ?ltimos tr?s anos (2009-2011), utilizando aplica??o de question?rio, assim como uma consulta a dados secund?rios dispon?veis. A an?lise dos dados levantados revelou que, efetivamente, na percep??o dos respondentes, fatores externos como o custo do processo de exporta??o, falta de incentivo do governo, excesso de controle dos ?rg?os p?blicos e a infraestrutura log?stica do estado exercem influ?ncia na pequena participa??o das MPEs nas exporta??es do Brasil e do Nordeste, enquanto o bom desempenho exportador destas relaciona-se a fatores gerenciais, com destaque para investimentos na estrutura organizacional da empresa, conhecimento do mercado internacional e bom relacionamento com clientes e mercados

本次採取個案研究方式，針對一家經營堅果原料出口貿易的中間商，藉著全球強勁的買方需求開始進入堅果原料市場。此公司座落在原料的產地，容易取得第一手的價格與產業情報，讓他們擁有資訊不對稱的優勢，來進行原料的銷售。 針對該中間商從銷售基本單位、銷售八大步驟、採購小組中心、4C架構、垂直整合等五個方式進行探討。此中間商成功進入台灣堅果原料供應鏈，主要在於能與上游供應鏈簽訂短期商品合約，保有原料價格的競爭力，並且能在其他競爭對手無原料時，適時提供客戶商品。在開發台灣市場發展的前期，由堅果原料供應鏈的下游開始，一路往上游尋找台灣的潛在客戶。此中間商取得下游廠商的信任後，運用彼此的關係取得上游買家的信任，加快銷售程序，以及減少採購單位的疑慮。個案中，該中間商曾試著透過策略聯盟的方式，與台灣小型網購業者進行堅果銷售，最後卻以失敗收場。 實際訪談個案公司與蒐集資料後，透過理論架構分析發現，一家企業公司要進入市場的前期，若花費精神調查供應鏈的結構來發掘潛在買家對象，且瞭解實際的需求與市場的競爭狀況後，再借助企業本身優勢，可成功取得代表性的客戶，容易成為此供應鏈的一員。但，隨著外部環境改變，企業的優勢是否會跟著改變，也是其個案企業未來尚須解決的議題。 / This research takes a tree nut exporting company, the Z Company, as case study to evaluate how the company took advantage of both strong international tree nut raw material demand and first-hand industrial and price information to enter the tree nut exporting industry. By facilitating its location advantage, which the company is located in the tree nut farm, the Z Company is able to hold first-hand information to create information asymmetry as advantage to sell the tree nut raw material. In the beginning stage in developing Taiwanese market, Z Company started and earned trusts from customers located in downstream tree nuts supply chain, and then took further steps to move upstream by exploiting the established trusts as references to gain trusts from the customers located in the upper stream of the supply chain. By doing so, Z Company was able to speed up the purchasing process and minimize the doubts for purchasing managers. In addition to this, Z Company also formed strategic alliance with a small Taiwanese online store to penetrate the market but did not receive much result. This research uses the concepts of basic sales unit, 8 steps to establish sales and customer relationship management, 4C framework of strategic marketing, and vertical integration to evaluate the developing path of Z Company. The research found that the reason why Z Company can successfully enter the tree nuts supply chain in Taiwan is that Z Company is able to sign shirt-term merchandise supply contract with the suppliers to ensure the competitiveness in price and secure the product supply, while on the other hand offers timely supply of material to the customers when other competitors fail to fulfill the product demand. This research discovered that in the beginning stage of market entry, it is ideal to utilize the company’s resources to discover who the potential buyers are and what the real market demand and the degree of competitiveness is. Then, the company should take its interior strength to acquire customers with industry influence as representative case so that it can easily become one of the members in the supply chain. However, as the external environment changes, the company’s advantages in the industry are very likely to change as well, therefore how to respond to such change will be the future development issue for the company.

La Responsabilidad Social Empresarial (RSE) es relativamente novedosa para los países en desarrollo, aunque en algunos países son considerados obstáculos que paralizan el accionar de los gerentes y se desconoce si repercute en el desempeño económico, por ende, no es lo mismo para todos los sectores. Ante ello la investigación tiene por objetivo establecer la relación que existe entre la sostenibilidad empresarial y el desempeño económico de empresas agroexportadoras peruanas supervisadas por la SMV. Para su cumplimiento se utilizó un enfoque cuantitativo, de tipo básico, con diseño no experimental. A su vez, la población consta de 21 empresas del sector agroexportador y que, mediante criterios de inclusión, exclusión y eliminación, la muestra fue de 14 empresas. Además, está establecido mediante estadígrafos de correlación de Pearson y Rho de Spearman. Los resultados permitieron confirmar la hipótesis de investigación al encontrar que no existen pruebas suficientes para la existencia de relación entre sostenibilidad empresarial y desempeño económico; todo ellos medidos en la relación entre ROE y sostenibilidad empresarial (Sig. 0.3662), ROA y sostenibilidad empresarial (Sig. 0.3535), ROCE y sostenibilidad empresarial (Sig. 0.4229). Concluyendo, que en el Perú las empresas agroexportadoras no emiten reportes de sostenibilidad empresarial porque no hay incentivos para los accionistas, no se refleja como un potencial de beneficios por las inversiones realizadas y no es un potencial de ganancias por cada sol de capital invertido. / Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is relatively new for developing countries, although in some countries they are considered obstacles that paralyze the actions of managers and it is unknown if it has an impact on economic performance, therefore, it is not the same for all sectors. Given this, the research aims to establish the relationship that exists between business sustainability and the economic performance of Peruvian agro-export companies supervised by the SMV. For its fulfillment, a quantitative approach was used, of a basic type, with a non-experimental design. In turn, the population consists of 21 companies in the agro- export sector and through inclusion, exclusion and elimination criteria, the sample was 14 companies. Furthermore, it is established using Pearson correlation statistics and Spearman's Rho. The results confirmed the research hypothesis by finding that there is insufficient evidence for the existence of a relationship between business sustainability and economic performance; all of them measured in the relationship between ROE and business sustainability (Sig. 0.3662), ROA and business sustainability (Sig. 0.3535), ROCE and business sustainability (Sig. 0.4229). Concluding, that in Peru agro-export companies do not issue business sustainability reports because there are no incentives for shareholders, it is not reflected as a potential profit for the investments made and it is not a potential profit for each sol of capital invested.

State and local governments play an important role in financing and delivering public services in the United States. In 2008, state and local governments collected 57 percent of total federal, state, and local revenue (Urban Institute and Brookings Institution, Tax Policy Center, 2009). The decentralization of fiscal responsibility has enabled a high degree of variation in state and local tax structures to emerge. This dissertation presents two empirical studies that extend the positive literature on state and local tax policy. The extant literature contains evidence of a direct relationship between voter ideology and state and local tax progressivity. However, the measures of voter ideology that were used either did not capture differences in the intensity of voter liberalism across states, did not vary over time, or were beset with other limitations. This study uses the measure of average voter liberalism developed by Berry et al (1998). I find that average voter liberalism is significantly and positively-related to progressivity. However, the effect is small in magnitude. The ethnic congruence between the poor and the non-poor is positively-related to progressivity and the effects are economically significant. The degree of tension between ethnic groups, measured with an index of ethnic residential segregation, is significantly and inversely-related to progressivity. Both variables are statistically significant even with average voter liberalism held constant. It is possible that the ethnic demographic context reflects aspects of voters’ redistributive preferences that are not captured by measures of ideology. Researchers have found relationships between states’ tax exporting capacities and the tax structures they adopt. Chapter 4 is the first study to examine the relationship between state tax exporting capacities and the business sales taxes. I find that the effective sales tax rate that governments impose on business purchases is not significantly influenced by a state’s capacity to export business taxes. It is, however, significantly and positively affected by a state’s ability to export taxes on households through the deductibility of state and local taxes under the federal income tax. A decrease in this offset is predicted to lead to an increase in the effective business sales tax rate, ceteris paribus.

本論文主要是以實質選擇權分析法對在最適決策下供應鏈及公司的價值進行評價。內容包含兩篇文章。第一章為緒論；第二章與第三章為主文。在此兩章中 ，我們會先介紹研究動機、目的與文獻探討，接著架構模型，據以求出於最適決策下供應鏈或公司價值的封閉解後，以比較靜態分析法分析各參數對供應鏈或公司價值的影響。第四章為總結。 / 第一篇文章為對在隨機成本下供應鏈的評價。該模型是以單一供應商、單一零售商與多個消費者組成之垂直整合的二階段序列式動態供應鏈為架構，假設市場的現貨價格為動態過程，供應商和零售商每單位商品的成本為隨現貨價格變動的隨機成本。在此模型中，供應鏈的經營者以銷售量為決策，聯合利潤最大化為目標。此外，存貨設定在零售商的一方，而零售商所持有的存貨可視為擁有一個無窮期的美式買權，當存貨出清時，如同執行一個美式買權一般，以促使利潤的實現。接著我們利用比較靜態分析法就無風險利率和現貨價格報酬率的波動度對於最適決策下所求得的供應鏈價值之影響進行分析後，得到供應鏈價值會隨著無風險利率的上升而增加，亦會隨著現貨價格報酬率波動度的提高而增加。此結論和Cortazar and Schwartz(1993)以兩階段製造產品為運作模式之公司價值就無風險利率和現貨價格報酬率的波動度進行比較靜態分析後所得到的結果一致。 / 第二篇文章為對在隨機匯率下兩階段生產之公司進行評價。此文考慮Cortazar and Schwartz(1993)的模型，在產品之製造為兩階段式生產的條件下，納入隨機匯率，用實質選擇權分析法，評價以外銷專案為標的之公司價值。我們針對模型中的參數：本國的無風險利率、以外幣計價之現貨價格報酬率波動度及匯率波動度的變化對公司價值的影響進行分析後，而得到這些參數與公司價值呈現正相關的結果。此外，因動態現貨價格與隨機匯率的相關性 ，我們亦分析現貨價格和匯率的相關係數對公司價值之影響後，得到兩者正相關程度越大或是負相關程度越小時，公司價值就越大，從而體認到僅從匯率走勢的升值或貶值來判斷外銷專案價值有利與否是不夠詳盡的，還要考慮現貨價格和匯率交互影響的程度，決策者才能做出有利於外銷專案更好的決定。 / 最後，我們將此兩篇文章歸納出一些重要的結論後，接著針對本論文研究主題的未來發展方向，提出一些觀點和建議，以作一個總結。 / This text uses a real options approach to price the value of the supply chain or the company. It contains two articles . Chapter 1 is the introduction; Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 are the main text.In these chapters, we introduce the study motive and literature review, the model, the closed form of the supply chain or the company in the optimal operating policy, and then use comparative statics method to analyze the effect of some parameters that risk-free interest rate, volatility of the spot price, volatility of the exchange rate etc. Finally, we give a summary. / The first article is in Chapter 2. It is to price the optimal value of the two echelon sequential dynamic supply chain which is composed of one supplier, one retailer and many consumers. In this model, we assume that the spot price of goods is a dynamic process, the costs of the per unit goods of supplier and retailer are up to the change of the spot price, the sales volume is the decision strategy, and their aim is to maximize joint profits. In this supply chain, the value of the stocks for retailer can be regarded as a perpetual American call option. Finally, we will use comparative static to examine the effect of the volatility of the spot price and risk free rate for the optimal value of the supply chain, and we obtain the same results as Cortazar and Schwartz’s (1993) optimal value of two-stage companies. / The second article is in Chapter 3. Based on the extended the Cortazar and Schwartz (1993) model, we use the Real Options Approach to price the closed form of the value of the two-stage production for a company under stochastic exchange rate. With regard to the parameters in the model: domestic risk-free interest rate, the volatility of the foreign spot price, and the volatility of the exchange rate, we find that the domestic risk-free interest rate, volatility of the foreign spot price, and the volatility of exchange rate have positive correlated with the optimal value of the company. Moreover, due to the correlated relation between the dynamic foreign spot price and the stochastic exchange rate, we analyze the change of the coefficient of correlation between the foreign spot price and the exchange rate, and obtained the more large optimal value of the company when they are more large positive correlated or negative correlated. In other word, we need to consider the influence between the foreign spot rate and the exchange rate at the same time, and then the manager can make the optimal decision about the exporting project. / Finally, we summed up some important conclusions of Chapter 2 and Chapter 3, and then proposed some views and suggestions for the study the theme and the developing direction in the future.

Cette thèse se compose de trois chapitres ayant en commun la question de la qualité des exportations dans un contexte de pays en voie de développement. La thèse s’intéresse plus particulièrement à différents aspects permettant d’améliorer le niveau de qualité des exportations. Le premier chapitre est consacré à l'impact de l'Aide au commerce (Aid for trade) sur la qualité des exportations des pays récipiendaires. Il suggère un effet positif de la politique d'aide au commerce sur la qualité des exportations. Le deuxième chapitre porte sur le rôle de vérification de la qualité joué par les intermédiaires dans le commerce international. Les résultats indiquent que seuls les intermédiaires spécialisés jouent ce rôle. Le troisième chapitre examine le lien entre l'orientation à l'exportation des entreprises et leur performance en matière d'innovation. L’analyse empirique met en évidence une réduction des investissements en R&D chez les exportateurs dont les ventes s’orientent principalement vers les exportations au détriment du marché intérieur et ce d’autant plus qu’ils font face à une incertitude élevée de la demande. Ces évolutions défavorables pourraient être surmontées néanmoins si l’entreprise a une riche expérience commerciale ou une productivité élevée. Les trois résultats principaux de cette thèse sont ainsi que l'aide au commerce ainsi que l’essor d’intermédiaires de type spécialisé contribuent à la montée en qualité des exportateurs tandis que l'incertitude de la demande extérieure tend à l’inverse à entraver l’innovation des firmes exportatrices. / This thesis is composed of three chapters that have in common the question of export quality in a developing country context. The thesis focuses on different aspects of improving the quality level of exports. The first chapter is devoted to the impact of Aid for Trade on the quality of exports from recipient countries. It suggests a positive effect of Aid for Trade policy on the quality of exports. The second chapter focuses on the quality assurance role played by intermediaries in international trade. The results indicate that only specialized intermediaries play this role. The third chapter examines the link between firms' export orientation and their innovation performance. The empirical analysis shows a reduction in R&D investment by exporters whose sales reorient towards exports to the detriment of the domestic market, especially as they face high demand uncertainty. These unfavourable developments could nevertheless be overcome if the company has a long trade experience or high productivity. The three main results of this thesis are that aid for trade and the rise of specialized intermediaries contribute to the rise in quality of exporters, while the uncertainty of external demand tends, on the other hand, to hinder innovation by exporting firms.

L’objectif de la thèse est d’étudier le lien entre le prix du pétrole et les performances macroéconomiques dans les pays exportateurs de pétrole. En adoptant une perspective d’économétrie appliquée, nous recourons à plusieurs techniques récentes de l’économétrie des données de panel. Pour cela trois thèmes sont envisagés. Nous identifions d’abord les fondamentaux de la croissance économique dans ces pays exportateurs de pétrole. En tenant compte du caractère dynamique de la croissance, nos résultats mettent en avant le rôle clé de la rente pétrolière dans l’explication de la croissance économique de ces pays. L’étude des interactions met en évidence qu’à court terme, un choc pétrolier positif améliore le compte courant et bénéficie à la croissance économique mais entraîne aussi une appréciation du taux de change dans les pays exportateurs de pétrole. Pour ce qui concerne les interactions hors prix du pétrole, celles-ci sont limitées. Nous montrons ensuite que les fondamentaux du taux de change effectif réel des pays exportateurs de pétrole reposent principalement sur les termes de l’échange, la productivité relative et les dépenses publiques. L’examen des mésalignements de change montre l’existence d’une forte hétérogénéité entre les pays étudiés. Nous montrons que le régime de change fixe est plus approprié pour diminuer l’ampleur des mésalignements dans les pays exportateurs de pétrole. / The aim of the thesis is to study the link between oil prices and macroeconomic performances in oil exporting countries. Adopting an applied econometrics approach, we use recent techniques of panel data econometrics. For this, three themes are envisaged. We identify first the main determinants of economic growth of these countries. Considering the dynamic nature of growth, our results highlight the key role of the oil rent in explaining economic growth in these countries. The study of macroeconomic interactions highlights that, in the short term, a positive oil price shock improves the current account and boosts economic growth but also leads to an appreciation of the exchange rate in oil exporting countries. Regarding the interaction between macroeconomic variables excluding oil prices, we find that they are relatively weak. We then show that the fundamentals of the real effective exchange rates in oil exporting countries are mainly the terms of trade, the relative productivity and government expenditures. The study of exchange rate misalignments shows the existence of a strong heterogeneity among the countries studied. However, our investigations highlight the key role of exchange rate regimes in explaining the magnitude of these exchange rates misalignments. In particular, we show that the fixed exchange rate regime is more appropriate to reduce the magnitude of the exchange rate misalignments in oil-exporting countries.

Cette thèse de doctorat aborde le rôle de la politique dans une économie exportatrice de pétrole sous forme de trois essais. Chaque essai tente d'apporter des réponses à une problématique liée à la réponse de la politique monétaire face aux chocs externes, en particulier le choc pétrolier. A ce titre, nous construisons trois modèles dynamique et stochastique d'équilibre général (DSGE) multisectoriels que nous calibrons et estimons sur des pays producteurs de pétrole. Dans le premier essai, nous montrons que le syndrome hollandais sous ses deux effets, dépense et ressource, semble avoir lieu dans une économie exportatrice de pétrole seulement lorsque les salaires sont flexibles et les prix rigides dans le cas d'un régime de change fixe. En d'autre terme, les simulations montrent que le syndrome hollandais est évité si les prix sont rigides et les salaires sont flexibles lorsque les autorités monétaires adoptent une règle de ciblage d'inflation ; les prix et les salaires sont rigides, quelque soit l'objectif de la Banque centrale dans les deux cas : aubaine et boom. Nous montrons également, en comparant les sources de fluctuation qui conduisent au syndrome hollandais que la hausse de gisement pétrolier (boom) conduit à une plus forte désindustrialisation de l'économie comparé à l'aubaine. Enfin, le régime de change flexible semble améliorer le bien être des ménages. Dans le deuxième essai , nous comparons trois règles de politique monétaire (ciblage d'inflation, ciblage de taux de change et ciblage de l'inflation sous jacente) face à quatre chocs externes (prix du pétrole, taux de change, terme de l'échange et taux d'intérêt international) subis par un pays exportateur de pétrole. Pour ce faire, nous construisons un modèle DSGE à deux secteurs (pétrolier et non-pétrolier) estimé sur des données trimestrielles de l'économie algérienne en utilisant l'approche bayésienne. Les résultats montrent que, globalement, la réponse des variables macroéconomiques du modèle, est similaire sous les trois règles de politique monétaire. Notre principal résultat est la dépréciation du Dollar américain et la hausse du prix du pétrole constituent la principale source de fluctuation cyclique de l'économie algérienne. Aussi, et comme prédit par la théorie, la dépréciation du dollar américain a significativement contribué à la détérioration des termes de l'échange et du compte courant. Dans ce cas, la Banque centrale peut adopter une politique de dévaluation pour éviter les effets de ces chocs. Dans le troisième essai, nous considérons un échantillon de 16 pays exportateurs de pétrole que nous divisons en deux sous échantillons afin de comparer l'occurrence du syndrome hollandais dans deux principales catégories : les pays fortement dépendants du pétrole et les pays faiblement dépendants du pétrole. Nos principaux résultats montrent que six parmi huit pays fortement dépendants subissent les effets du syndrome hollandais. Dans l'autre sous échantillons, seul un pays sur huit subit le syndrome hollandais sous ses effets dépenses et ressources. Toutefois, concernant la règle de politique monétaire à adopter face au syndrome hollandais, les résultats obtenus ne sont pas tous identiques dans tous les pays. Il semblerait que, l'adoption d'une politique monétaire appropriée dépend essentiellement des caractéristiques structurelles de chaque pays. / The aim of this thesis is to analyze the impact of external shocks on oil exporting economies and the role of monetary policy in this context. It consists of three essays. In the first essay, we build a Multi-sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the impact of both windfall (an increase in oil price) and boom (an increase in oil resource) on an oil exporting economy. Our model is built to see if the two oil shocks (windfall and boom) generate, in the same proportion, a Dutch Disease effect. Our main findings show that the Dutch disease effect under its two main mechanisms, namely spending effect and resource-movement effect, occurs only in the case of flexible wages and sticky prices, when exchange rate is fixed. We also compare the source of fluctuations that leads to a strong effect in term of de-industrialization. We conclude that the windfall leads to a stronger effect than a boom. Finally, the choice of flexible exchange rate regime helps to improve welfare.In the second essay, we estimate, by using the Bayesian approach, a DSGE model for Algerian economy investigating the dynamic effect of four external shocks (oil price, real exchange rate, international interest rate and foreign inflation), and examining the appropriate monetary policy rule. Our main findings show that, over the period 1990Q1-2010Q4, core inflation target is the best monetary rule to stabilize both output and inflation. In the third essay, we investigate the impact of the recent increase of oil price on a small open oil exporting economy. For this, we estimate a Dynamic, Stochastic, General equilibrium (DSGE) model for some oil producing countries using the Bayesian approach. We consider, in this essay, a sample of 16 oil exporting countries (Algeria, Argentina, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela) over the period from 1980 to 2010, except for Russia where our sample begins in 1992. In order to distinguish between high-dependent and low-dependent countries, we use two indicators : the ratio of fuel exports to total merchandise exports and the ratio of oil exports to GDP. We estimate the median for each ratio on our 16 studied countries. Countries above (below) the median are considered as high (low) oil dependent economies. We verify if the first group is more sensitive to the Dutch disease effect. We also assess the role of monetary policy. Our main findings show that in the first sample, namely high oil dependant economies, 6 countries are affected by the Dutch disease (decrease in the manufacturing production). Low oil dependant countries, are less affected by the fluctuation of oil price. Indeed, only one country has suffered a Dutch disease effect after the shock. Nevertheless, Regarding the appropriate monetary policy rule, we find that both inflation targeting and exchange rate rules may be effective to contain the size of the Dutch disease effect. Our results suggest that in Algeria and Saudi Arabia, inflation targeting offers better performances. We observe the opposite in Gabon, Kuwait, Oman, and Venezuela. Such results are consistent with economic theory. Indeed, we see that in more open economies and smaller countries (in terms of economic size), the exchange rate rule is preferable to inflation rule. Venezuela seems an exception. Such country does not fulfill the traditional criteria favoring the choice of the exchange rule. In fact, this exception is only apparent. First, if we consider the volatility, we see that Venezuela is among the most volatile economy. Second, Venezuela suffers from a fiscal dominance effect: both inflation rate and fiscal deficit are the highest relative to other studied countries.