Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Defense Decision-Making And Planning))--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2010. / Thesis Advisor(s): Russell, James. ; Moran, Daniel. "March 2010." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 30, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Deterrence (Strategy); Conventional Deterrence (Strategy); Deterrence-Psychology; Falkland Islands War, 1982; Great Britain; Argentina; Defense Policy Includes bibliographical references (p. 109-112). Also available in print.

Marine top predators often occupy broad geographical ranges that encompass varied habitats. Therefore, a pre-requisite towards conserving these animals is to determine the components of their realized niche, and investigate whether a species is a specialist or a generalist. For generalist species, it is also necessary to understand if local specialisation occurs. Uncovering these components can allow us to build models of a species realized niche that may then be used to infer habitat use in unsampled locations. However, fully understanding the components of a marine top predators realized niche is challenging owing to the limited opportunity for in situ observations. Overcoming these limitations is a key step in marine top predator research. It will enhance our understanding of trophic coupling in marine systems, and aid in the development of tools to better study these predators in their dynamic environment. Seabirds, penguins (Spheniscids) in particular, are a group of animals for which investigating their realized niche is of vital importance. This is because numerous species face growing uncertainty in the Anthropocene, and in a time of rapid environmental change there is furthermore a need to better understand the potential use of these birds as indicators of ecosystem health. The aim of this thesis, therefore, is to investigate the foraging ecology of gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua) at the Falkland Islands. At the Falkland Islands, limited historical information exists regarding this species foraging ecology, with most information coming from a single location at the Falklands. As the Falkland Islands have the world’s largest population of gentoo penguins, elucidating factors influencing this population will have global relevance. Furthermore, historical information indicated potential competition with fisheries, and with prospecting for hydrocarbons and an inshore fishery, there is a need to understand the distribution of these birds across the islands. Penguins are also well suited to carry biologging devices allowing for in situ observations of inter and intraspecific interactions, as well as habitat specific interactions. In this study, I sampled birds over three breeding seasons, from four breeding colonies - chosen for their varied surrounding at sea habitat - across the Falkland Islands. I investigated the diet with stomach content and stable isotope analysis, the at-sea distribution with GPS and time depth recorders, and how these birds behaved at sea using custom made animal-borne camera loggers. Furthermore, I developed a method to recognise prey encounter events from back mounted accelerometers, using a supervised machine learning approach. As part of the first species specific description of diet at this scale for the Falklands, I revealed six key prey items for the birds: rock cod (Patagonotothen spp.), lobster krill (Munida spp.), Falkland herring (Sprattus fuegensis), Patagonian squid (Doryteuthis gahi), juvenile fish (likely all nototheniids), and southern blue whiting (Micromesistius australis). The use of animal-borne camera loggers verified that not only do gentoo penguins consume a diverse array of prey items, but they adopted various methods to capture and pursue prey, with evidence of birds following optimal foraging theory. Prey composition varied significantly between study sites with the at-sea distribution and habitat use of penguins reflecting that of local prey. Birds from colonies close to gently sloping, shallow waters, foraged primarily in a benthic manner and had larger niche widths. However, those at a colony surrounded by steeply sloping, deeper waters, typically foraged in a pelagic manner. Contrasting diet patterns were also prevalent from stable isotope data, and the niche widths of birds relating to both stomach content and stable isotope data were larger at colonies where benthic foraging was prevalent. Therefore, it was clear that surrounding bathymetry played a key role in shaping this species’ foraging ecology, and that at the population level at the Falkland Islands birds are generalists. However, at individual colonies some specialisation occurs to take advantage of locally available prey. I developed habitat distribution models - via boosted regression trees – which transferred well in time but poorly across space. Reasons for poor model transfer might relate to the generalist foraging nature of these birds and the reduced availability of environmental predictors owing to the limited range of these birds. I furthermore developed a method to identify prey encounter events that can also, to a degree, distinguish between prey items. This method will be a promising approach to refine habitat distribution models in future. These habitat distribution models could potentially contribute to marine spatial planning at the Falkland Islands. Footage from animal-borne camera loggers clearly showed that prey behaviour can significantly influence trophic coupling in marine systems and should be accounted for in studies using marine top predators as samplers of mid to lower trophic level species. Ultimately, flexibility in foraging strategies and inter-colony variation will play a critical role when assessing factors such as interspecific competition or overlap with anthropogenic activities.

Early in her Prime Ministership, Margaret Thatcher fought an unlikely diversionary war far from home for the ownership of the Falkland Islands. The Islands lie off of Argentina’s coast about 8,000 miles from London, but have been subject to Britain’s rule since 1836. In April 1982, hoping to distract from domestic political and economic turmoil, Argentina’s military dictatorship ordered a surprise invasion of the Islands. Thatcher, Britain’s first female Prime Minister, responded in full force. By early May, a British fleet reached the Islands. By June, despite American efforts to stop a war between its allies, Britain launched an assault on the Islands and took them back by force. Thatcher’s victory propelled her to immense popularity in late-1982 and 1983, and the Argentine dictatorship’s defeat gave life to a people’s revolt that quickly ended the regime and decades of military leadership. This thesis examines Thatcher’s leadership in April 1982, before Britain launched its retaliatory invasion of the Islands. It seeks to answer how Thatcher managed to make the war possible and popular in three key arenas: with her own cabinet and government, with the United States and the United Nations, and ultimately with the British public. This study operates on the idea that the war served as an intentional diversion for Thatcher, who had struggled domestically as Prime Minister up until the Falklands Crisis. Utilizing newly released archival documents from the Thatcher government, this study shows the Prime Minister never had any interest in avoiding war, undermining any potential for peace as it emerged.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Florida State University, 2005. / Advisor: Dr. Jean Graham-Jones, Florida State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Interdisciplinary Program in the Humanities. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed Aug. 30, 2005). Document formatted into pages; contains vi, 367 pages. Includes bibliographical references.

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ABSTRACT " Once it was said that the law followed the flag. Now, international law is everywhere. Its influence increases. " Sovereignty is no longer an intra-national concept within International Law. It now involves a greater consideration of issues concerning the global community. This thesis develops a practical methodology for the determination of sovereignty over maritime natural resources. Customary international law regarding the use of resources within the maritime zones of islands on the high seas is rapidly developing. Traditional tests, such as the discovery and occupation of islands, are no longer the primary focus of the determination of sovereignty. The methodology expressed in this thesis is an application and adaptation of the current state of the international laws regarding islands within the high seas. This argument has its foundation in the new international treaties, recent decisions of the International Court of Justice, the Permanent Court of Arbitration and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. It unifies the latest determinations and theoretical legal perspectives of these bodies to produce a single methodology. This work provides an original and substantial contribution to the knowledge and understanding of sovereignty issues within International Law. The Chapters of this thesis and their sub-headings progressively illuminate the individual elements of a distinctive formula for determining the sovereignty of islands within the high seas. The Chapters form a template for this methodology, which is applied to the Falkland Islands. Thus, each chapter is a step towards the determination of sovereignty. This modus operandi can be applied to new disputes in this realm, such as those filed with the International Court of Justice. Since 1982, the definitive ownership of the Falkland Islands proper has been determined, if not by International Law, then by warfare. However, conflict over the use of natural resources in the maritime zones continues.

This thesis investigates sea-level changes in order to test the hypothesis that the main contribution to early 20th century sea-level rise was Northern Hemisphere land-based ice melt. Multiproxy sea-level reconstructions were established for the Falkland Islands, a location where models suggest sea-level rise from Northern Hemisphere ice melt produces the largest signal. The Falklands reconstruction indicated sea levels in the early 20th century accelerated compared to the long-term rate, synchronous with accelerations observed globally. The magnitude of the acceleration in the Falklands reconstruction was greater than Northern Hemisphere rates, consistent with the spatial pattern from a Northern Hemisphere melt source, but likely less than in New Zealand and Australia. It is therefore not possible rule out other contributions to the observed sea-level acceleration. The Falklands reconstruction indicated a rapid sea-level jump around 8.4 ka BP, synchronous with a jump observed in the Northern Hemisphere, which has been attributed to the sudden drainage of Laurentide proglacial lake Agassiz-Ojibway associated with the 8.2 ka BP climatic downturn. A maximum estimate of 0.89 ± 0.22 m for this jump in the Falklands is considerably less than estimates from Northern Hemisphere records. This difference could indicate additional contributions from the Southern Hemisphere are being recorded in the Northern Hemisphere signal. This thesis also focused on developing testate amoebae as sea-level indicators. In the Falklands, testate amoebae transfer functions were able to reconstruct sea level with precision (±0.08 m) comparable to diatoms (±0.07 m). However, preservation issues were indicated in the fossil testate amoebae assemblages which limits their use as tools for sea-level reconstruction. In addition, contemporary distributions of salt-marsh testate amoebae were investigated over one annual cycle. Seasonal variations in the live assemblages were observed to be asynchronous between taxa. Variations in the death assemblages were also observed which were correlated with variations in the live assemblages. This observation suggests the commonly applied assumption in palaeoenvironmental studies that analysing the death population negates temporal bias is invalid. Further research is required to investigate the impact these observed variations have on reconstructive performance.

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Att använda erfarenheter, i form av principer, vid militär planering är inget nytt fenomen. SedanNapoleontiden har det vuxit fram riktlinjer för militär planering och genomförande i form avKrigföringens grundprinciper och principer för att skapa en framgångsrik logistik. Exempel påprinciper och hur de ska tolkas finns i de flesta av världens försvarsmakters doktriner.Syftet med uppsatsen är att ge exempel på hur principer för logistik kan användas för att reflekteraöver de logistiska utmaningar, som en befälhavare eller stabsofficer ställs inför vid en militärplanering.Som empiri, för att värdera principerna mot, har Falklandkriget 1982 och Gulfkriget 1991, med ettbrittiskt/amerikansk perspektiv använts. De är båda konventionella krig med ett tydligt militärtslutmål, men har väldigt olika förutsättningar för logistiken i både en tid-, rum- ochstyrkejämförelse.Uppsatsen använder abduktion som metod. Fem principer för logistik bildar hypoteser förframgång som ställs mot empirin, i form av de två krigen. Krigen ställs mot varandra, medprinciperna som analysverktyg, och komparationens likheter och skillnader gör det möjligt attvärdera och dra slutsatser av principernas innebörd.Resultatet visar att principerna har ett värde och analysen ger vid handen ett flertal slutsatser somkan användas vid militär planering. Principerna ska inte ses som ett krav som måste uppnås för attnå framgång, utan som stöd och riktlinjer för att ta tillvara beprövad erfarenhet. / Using experience, in the form of principles, in military planning is not a new phenomenon. SinceNapoleon there has been development of guidelines for military planning and execution in theform of Principles of War and principles for creating successful logistics. Examples of principlescan be found in most of the world’s defense forces’ doctrines.The overall aim of the thesis is to give examples of how to use principles for logistics to reflecton the logistic challenges you face, as a commander or a staff officer, in military planning.The empirical material used to test the principles against are the Falkland War and the Gulf War,from a British/American perspective. They are both conventional wars with a clear military endstate, but differ a lot in the logistic requirements, both in a time-, space- and forces comparison.The thesis uses the method of abduction. Five principles of logistics make five hypotheses forsuccess that are contrasted with the empirical evidence, in the form of the two wars. The wars arecompared to each other, with the principles as analytic tools, and the similarity and thedifferences in the comparison make it possible to draw conclusions about the principles’ content.The result shows that the principles have value and the analysis gives a number of conclusionsthat can be used in military planning. The principles should not be seen as requirements forsuccess, but rather as a support of, and as guidelines for your planning in order to make use ofprevious experience. / Avdelning: ALB – Slutet Mag. 3 C-upps. Hylla: Upps. ChP 07-09

Centers of Gravity (CoGs) analyses deliver vital input to the operational design. However, there are a great number of theories regarding the phenomenon which can create a certain degree of confusion. The diversity in theories may lead to misdirected mental energy where the focus is to discuss theories instead of using the theories at hand efficiently. The question is if the diversity in theory is an actual problem or if it just perceived as such? This research identifies the similarities and differences in the theories of Milan Vego and Joseph Strange & Richard Iron regarding CoGs, their sub elements and methods for analysis. The impact of the differences on the practical result is then surveyed by implementing the theories on adelimitated phase of the Falklands War, in order to conclude if the differences have a decisive impact on the product of the CoG analysis. The result of this thesis indicates that the diversity in theory is a perceived problem. The identified divergence does not reflect crucially on the CoG analysis and the variation of the input provided to the operational design is minor. The CoGs and the critical vulnerabilities identified are the same or at least similar, no matter which of the two theories was used in this research. / Avdelning: ALB – Slutet Mag. 3 C-upps. Hylla: Upps. ChP 07-09