This thesis investigates whether the estimation of the cost of equity (or the expected return) in the Swedish market should incorporate an adjustment for a company’s size. This is what is commonly known as the size-effect, first presented by Banz (1980) and has later been a part of models for estimating cost of equity, such as Fama & French’s three factor model (1992). The Fama & French model was developed based on empirical research. Since the model was developed, the research on the size-effect has been divided and today there are empirical studies contradicting its existence. Arguments against the size-effect are to some extent supported by the fact that there is no solid theoretical explanation for it. It seems however that market participants in the Swedish markets do adjust for the size.A limitation of the Fama & French model is that market data is required for the estimation. Our starting point is to investigate if there is a presence of the size-effect in the Swedish markets using a modified version Fama & French model. In our modified model a proxy for the market value of the firm has been introduced, namely the firms turnover. This is motivated by the fact data regarding a company’s turnover is available for private firms as well. In the case that size-effect is observable using the turnover as a proxy this would allow to extend the model to estimate the cost of equity for private firms. In the case where a consistent estimated marginal effect of the turnover is observed, our model could be used to estimate cost of equity with reasonable precision. Historical data on Swedish companies from each of the OMX Large, Mid & Small cap lists is used in a regression setting to investigate if any statistical significant results can be observed on whether the logarithm of the turnover affects the expected return.Our results indicate that the marginal effect of the turnover is positive, contradicting previous research and economic intuition that size of a company should be negatively correlated (or uncorrelated) with the expected return. By investigating the internal and external validity of the results, comparison to previous research and assessing data quality, we conclude that errors originating from these factors are not plausible to cause the unintuitive results. We therefore conclude that the use of turnover as a proxy for market value is not viable, which may be attributed to the fundamental relationship between the turnover and cost of equity in valuation formulas. Conclusively we cannot draw any further conclusions regarding presence of size-effect in the Swedish equity markets and discard the possibility of using our modified model for estimating cost of equity for private firms.

In financial markets, momentum effect can be defined as the tendency of prices to maintain their short term movements. On the other hand, reversal effect is usually understood to be the change in direction of long term price movements. This paper examines whether momentum and reversal effects were in evidence in the Brazilian stock market between January 1999 and June 2012. After calculating 1296 trading strategies, no evidence of reversal effect is found. With regard to momentum effect, some weak evidence is presented for the very short term. Exposure to risk factors can explain returns on strategies, including returns on momentum strategies. The results are borne out with different market proxy specifications and size subsamples. When compared to previous studies, the results raise the question of whether the reversal effect is vanishing from the Brazilian stock market and whether the traces of momentum are sufficient to confirm its existence. Furthermore, evidence of seasonality is found for June in momentum strategies and for November in both reversal and momentum strategies. Subsequent tests reveal that the effects of seasonality are limited to small stocks. / Nos mercados financeiros, o efeito momento pode ser definido como a tendência dos preços em manter seus movimentos de curto prazo. Por outro lado, o efeito contrário é geralmente entendido como a mudança na direção dos movimentos de longo prazo dos preços. O presente trabalho examina a existência dos efeitos momento e contrário no mercado acionário brasileiro no período compreendido entre janeiro de 1999 e junho de 2012. A partir do cálculo de 1296 estratégias de investimento, nenhuma evidência de efeito contrário é encontrada. Com relação ao efeito momento, observou-se apenas uma fraca evidência no curtíssimo prazo. A exposição aos fatores de risco é capaz de explicar os retornos das estratégias, inclusive os retornos das estratégias de momento. Os resultados são robustos ao se utilizar diferentes especificações de proxy de mercado e subamostras de valor de mercado. Quando comparados a trabalhos anteriores, os resultados colocam em questão se o efeito contrário está desaparecendo no mercado acionário brasileiro e se as fracas evidências do efeito momento são suficientes para confirmar sua existência. Ademais, são observadas evidências de sazonalidade no mês de junho nas estratégias de momento e, no mês de novembro, em ambas as estratégias. Testes posteriores revelam que esses efeitos de sazonalidade estão restritos à subamostra de baixo valor de mercado.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Luiz Alves Jr.pdf: 640831 bytes, checksum: 63a6f4da7dee84ca741e9567c860b77e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-08-14 / Fama & French (1993) Three Factors Model is an extension of the Sharpe-Lintner & Black (1972) asset-pricing model, the CAPM. In this model, the market value and ratio price to book value of the firms are incorporated as explainable variables to the CAPM, adding to the market-risk factor β of the model. The Three Factors Model was originally developed to the American stock market and then successfully rolled-over to several different countries markets. Some studies have been done to the Brazilian case however the lack of data has compromised the results. The aim of this work is to test the Fama & French (1993) model to the Brazilian stock market using a new methodology to build the portfolios. The innovation in this work is the usage of a moving data-base that incorporates new stocks to the portfolios as they debut in the stock market and reaches the liquidity parameters for the model. In the previews works, the databases were made of fixed sets of stocks. This methodology aims to mitigate the lack of data problem in the Brazilian stock market. The period of analysis is from 2000 to 2011, and the stocks used to build the portfolio are those with reliable data and the ones that present at least one trade per 2 months. The analysis of the Three Factors Model were made using the Black, Jensen & Scholes (1972) linear regression approach, the same applied by Fama & French (1993) in their work. Sixteen portfolios were used as the dependent variables. They were built trough the crossing of 4 groups of stocks organized according to their market value (ME) and their ratio price to book value (ME/BE). Two portfolios were built as the independent variables. They are a set of stocks that mimic the market value risk factor, the SMB portfolio, and the price to book-value risk factor, the HML portfolio. The method used to estimate the parameters of the equation was the Ordinary Least Square. The results found for the Brazilian stock market were very similar to the ones found by Fama & French (1993). The first one was the same empirical contradictions of the CAPM found by Fama & French (1993) for the American market. The Betas from the CAPM had no apparent relation to the expected return of the stocks. Next, the Three Factors Model presented a higher explaining (R²) power to the portfolios returns and was statistically significant to 15 of the 16 tested portfolios. The coefficient of the regressions related to the risk factors SMB and HML presented, in the vast majority, the same signals of the ones found by Fama & French (1993). A small discrepancy was found in some HML coefficients and it was explained by the performance of the Brazilian economy and stock market in the period. At last the Three Factors Model proved itself a much better tool to evaluate the risk factors of Brazilian stocks then the CAPM. / O modelo de três fatores de Fama & French (1993) é uma extensão do modelo de precificação de ativos de Sharpe (1963), Lintner (1965) e Black (1972), o CAPM. Em Fama & French (1993), o valor de mercado e o valor contábil das empresas são adicionados como variáveis explicativas ao fator de risco de mercado β do CAPM. O objetivo deste trabalho é testar o poder explicativo do modelo de três fatores para o mercado acionário brasileiro. A inovação deste trabalho foi a utilização de um universo de ações móvel, no qual os títulos que são lançados na Bovespa no período de análise vão sendo incorporadas à base de dados conforme atingem os requisitos do modelo. Trata-se de uma abordagem inovadora, já que tradicionalmente o universo de ações que compõe a amostra é rígido do início ao fim do período de análise. Esta abordagem foi desenvolvida com o intuito de mitigar o problema de falta de dados do mercado acionário brasileiro. O período de análise foi de 2000 à 2011, e as ações utilizadas foram todas aquelas que possuíam um histórico confiável e apresentaram pelo menos um negócio à cada dois meses. A análise do Modelo de Três Fatores foi realizada utilizando a metodologia de séries temporais de Black, Jensen e Scholes (1972), da mesma forma que Fama & French (1993). Como variável dependente foram utilizadas 16 carteiras, oriundas do cruzamento das ações dividas em 4 percentis iguais pelos seus valores de mercado (ME), e 4 percentis iguais pela razão valor de mercado pelo valor contábil (ME/BE). Como variáveis independentes foram construídas duas séries de retorno que replicam os fatores de risco valor de mercado, SMB, e a razão valor de mercado pelo valor contábil, HML. Estas foram construídas pela diferença dos retornos das ações de maior ME e menor ME; e pela diferença do retorno das de maior ME/BE, pelas de menor ME/BE. O método de estimação dos coeficientes das regressões utilizado foi o dos mínimos quadrados ordinários. Os resultados do Modelo encontrados para a bolsa brasileira foram similares àqueles encontrados por Fama & French (1993). O Modelo apresentou maior poder explicativo para os retornos dos portfolios analisados que o CAPM, e mostrou-se estatisticamente significante para 15 das 16 carteiras. Os coeficientes das regressões relativos aos fatores de risco SMB e HML apresentaram, em sua maioria, os mesmo sinais que os encontrados por Fama & French (1993). Foi encontrada uma discrepância relativa ao sinal do fator HML para as carteiras de maior ME/BE, cuja explicação está atrelada ao momento da economia e mercados no período. Por fim, o Modelo e a discrepância foram reavaliados dividindo-se o período de análise em pré e pós-crise de 2008. O modelo mostrou maior poder explicativo para o período pós-crise que para o pré-crise. A mesma discrepância do sinal de HML foi encontrada no pré-crise, entretanto não foi verificada no pós-crise.

In financial markets, momentum effect can be defined as the tendency of prices to maintain their short term movements. On the other hand, reversal effect is usually understood to be the change in direction of long term price movements. This paper examines whether momentum and reversal effects were in evidence in the Brazilian stock market between January 1999 and June 2012. After calculating 1296 trading strategies, no evidence of reversal effect is found. With regard to momentum effect, some weak evidence is presented for the very short term. Exposure to risk factors can explain returns on strategies, including returns on momentum strategies. The results are borne out with different market proxy specifications and size subsamples. When compared to previous studies, the results raise the question of whether the reversal effect is vanishing from the Brazilian stock market and whether the traces of momentum are sufficient to confirm its existence. Furthermore, evidence of seasonality is found for June in momentum strategies and for November in both reversal and momentum strategies. Subsequent tests reveal that the effects of seasonality are limited to small stocks. / Nos mercados financeiros, o efeito momento pode ser definido como a tendência dos preços em manter seus movimentos de curto prazo. Por outro lado, o efeito contrário é geralmente entendido como a mudança na direção dos movimentos de longo prazo dos preços. O presente trabalho examina a existência dos efeitos momento e contrário no mercado acionário brasileiro no período compreendido entre janeiro de 1999 e junho de 2012. A partir do cálculo de 1296 estratégias de investimento, nenhuma evidência de efeito contrário é encontrada. Com relação ao efeito momento, observou-se apenas uma fraca evidência no curtíssimo prazo. A exposição aos fatores de risco é capaz de explicar os retornos das estratégias, inclusive os retornos das estratégias de momento. Os resultados são robustos ao se utilizar diferentes especificações de proxy de mercado e subamostras de valor de mercado. Quando comparados a trabalhos anteriores, os resultados colocam em questão se o efeito contrário está desaparecendo no mercado acionário brasileiro e se as fracas evidências do efeito momento são suficientes para confirmar sua existência. Ademais, são observadas evidências de sazonalidade no mês de junho nas estratégias de momento e, no mês de novembro, em ambas as estratégias. Testes posteriores revelam que esses efeitos de sazonalidade estão restritos à subamostra de baixo valor de mercado.

I och med att hållbarhetsfaktorer får en allt större inverkan på investeringsbeslut är syftet med studien att undersöka huruvida en strategi baserat på ESG-poäng genererar avvikelseavkastning. Studiens teoretiska ansats bygger på den effektiva marknadshypotesen och tidigare litteratur inom hållbart investerande. Populationen som undersöks är svenska företag noterade på Nasdaq OMX Stockholm under perioden januari 2010-december 2016. Genom att konstruera jämviktade portföljer av 53 företag baserat på ESG-poäng från Thomson Reuters skapas två skilda portföljer, en hållbar och en icke hållbar. Portföljernas avvikelseavkastning undersöks först genom CAPM för att sedan ytterligare justeras efter Fama & French trefaktormodell. Studiens resultat visar att sambandet mellan hållbara portföljer och avvikelseavkastning är neutralt. Undersökningen visar därför att en strategi i vilken ESG-poäng ligger till grund för portföljstruktur inte är finansiellt överpresterande i Sverige. Indikationer ges dock om att en investeringsstrategi som innehar långa positioner i hållbara portföljer och blankar icke hållbara ger positiv avvikelseavkastning.

The traditional fund performance-evaluating measures rely on historical returns; however, this return-based performance measures are demonstrated with less precision but more biases than the holding-based measures by many studies. Therefore, the paper uses both return-based measure and holding-based measure by Cohen et al (2005). The equity fund samples begin from January 2004 to December 2008 with monthly returns and seasonally holdings of equity funds. The purpose of the study is to compare the predicting ability and information-containing ability between the four models: CAPM alpha model, Fama & French alpha model, CAPM holding based alpha model, and Fama & French holding based alpha model. At the end, the study analyzes the stock selection ability of Taiwan equity funds with the model which has the best predicting and information-containing power. The result shows that the best predicting power models are Fama & French model and CAPM model. Also, the best information-containing models for predicting future returns are Fama & French model and CAPM model. Thus, the study uses both Fama & French model and CAPM model to analyze the stock-picking ability of Taiwan equity funds. And we find that the funds have no stock selecting ability under Fama & French alpha model, but have the contrary results under CAPM alpha model. However, considering the number of the factors and the explanation of the two models, we conclude this paper with Fama & French model which shows Taiwan equity funds having no stock selection ability.

Hållbarhet är ett begrepp som har blivit allt mer populärt under senare år och med detta blir efterfrågan på hållbara aktier större. Inom den finansiella världen benämns ofta begreppet hållbarhet i form av ESG vilket står för environmental, social och governance. Områdena representerar kriterier som används för att bedöma olika tillgångars grad av hållbarhet. Eftersom kategorierna inom ESG skiljer sig mellan varandra är det av intresse att analysera dessa enskilt.  Syftet med studien är att analysera E-, S- och G-aktier och dess avkastning i Sverige med hjälp av Fama och Frenchs femfaktormodell för tidsperioden 2010–2019. Portföljer har skapats för respektive område inom ESG för att bedöma deras individuella prestation samtidigt som de jämförs med ett markandsindex. För att analysera avkastning i förhållande till risk har ekonometriska analyser genomförts i form av regressionsmodeller för tidsseriedata samt för pooled tvärsnitts- och tidsseriedata. För att se hur portföljerna har presterat i förhållande till marknaden jämförs de även med indexet OMXS30 med hjälp av framtagna finansiella nyckeltal.  Samtliga av våra regressioner uppvisade positiva men icke-signifikanta intercept. Detta gör att vi inte kan säkerställa ett signifikant samband mellan hållbarhet och avkastning. Portföljerna erhöll sedan en högre Sharpekvot i förhållande till marknadsportföljen. Detta kan ses som en indikation på att investerare med höga hållbarhetspreferenser kan dra nytta av att investera hållbart. Resultatet från Jensens alfa tyder även på att portföljerna överavkastar gentemot marknaden, däremot kan vi inte konstatera huruvida resultaten från Sharpekvoten och Jensens alfa är signifikanta eller ej. / Sustainablitiy is a relativley new term that, under recent years, has grown to become popular. With the acknowladgement of sustainablitity it has also becom sought-after to invest in sustainable assets. In the financial world sustainability often refers to the term ESG which means environmental, social and governance. The categories represent criteria that is used to determine different assets degree of sustainability. Since the categories of ESG differ from each other it is therefore of interest to analyze them individually.  The aim with this study is to analyze E-, S-, and G-stocks and their return in Sweden while using the Fama and French five factor model during the period of 2010-20219. Portfolios are constructed for each category within ESG to evaluate their individual performance, they are also compared to a market index. Econometric tests are produced to analyze the risk and return of the portfolios through time series and pooled cross section and time series regressions. In order to study how the portfolios perform they are compared with the Swedish market index OMXS30 through produced financial measurements.  The results from the regression tests show positive, but insignificant intercepts for all of the models. Therefore, we cannot ensure a significant relation between sustainability and return. Furthermore, the portfolios received a higher Sharpe ratio than the market portfolio OMXS30. This indicates that investors with strong preferences for sustainability may benefit from buying ESG-stocks. The result from Jensen’s alpha also indicate that the portfolios outperform the market. Although, we cannot establish if the results from the Sharpe ratio and Jensen’s alpha are significant or not.

Det är sedan länge känt att det finns en positiv korrelation mellan risk och avkastning. Investerare och bolag kan välja mellan flera olika prissättningsmodeller för att förutspå priset på en aktie. Forskare har, med den kända enfaktormodellen CAPM som utgångspunkt, utvecklat en modell som tar hänsyn till mer än bara marknadsfaktorn. Detta resulterade i framtagandet av Fama & French-trefaktormodellen (FF3) som även inkluderar storleksfaktorn SMB samt värdefaktorn HML. Syftet med studien är att utvärdera två prissättningsmodeller, CAPM och FF3, för att kunna bedöma deras prestanda vid värdering av förväntad avkastning. Tidigare forskning, inom området för nämnda modeller, berör ofta internationella marknader samt modellernas prestanda för portföljer. Vår studie utförs på utvalda enskilda svenska aktier inkluderade på Stockholmsbörsens Large Cap för januari år 2011 till december år 2015, genom att replikera tidigare forskning gjord av Bartholdy & Peare (2005). Utvalda bolag analyseras efter regressioner för modellerna för att kunna utvärdera dessa var för sig, samt för att se om FF3 har en högre justerad förklaringsgrad än CAPM för enskilda svenska aktier. Resultatet av studien visar att både CAPM och FF3 är applicerbara för utvalda enskilda svenska aktier. Ställs FF3 i förhållande till CAPM föreligger skillnad i justerad förklaringsgrad, dock är den ytterst marginell. Sammanfattningsvis bidrar studien med kunskapen om att CAPM och FF3 går att applicera på enskilda svenska aktier, men att det inte föreligger någon större skillnad i val av dessa två modeller. / Investors and companies can choose between multiple pricing models to predict the price of shares. With the known one factor model CAPM, researchers have developed a model that consider more than just the market factor. This resulted in the creation of the Fama & French three factor model (FF3), which also includes the size factor SMB and the value factor HML. The purpose of the study is to evaluate two pricing models, CAPM and FF3, to assess their performance when evaluating expected returns. Previous research often deal with international markets and model performance of portfolios. We study selected individual Swedish shares for January 2011 to December 2015 by replicating previous research by Bartholdy & Peare (2005). Selected companies are analysed by regressions for the models to be able to evaluate these separately, and to see if FF3 has a higher degree of explanation than CAPM for individual Swedish shares. The result of the study shows that both CAPM and FF3 are applicable for selected individual Swedish shares. There is a difference in the adjusted degree of explanation between the models but it is marginal. In conclusion, the study contributes with the knowledge that CAPM and FF3 can be applied to individual Swedish shares, but there is no major difference in the choice of these two models.

Calculating the expected return has been a longstanding issue in the finance. There is a positive correlation between the undertaken risk and excess return (or loss) but numerous variables need to be considered. This study builds on the Fama and French formula and adds factors unique to the hospitality industry such as labor cost and diversification in order to get results that are a tailored to the hospitality industry. Active hotel and restaurants companies (SIC 7011 and 5812 respectively) in the 2000-2009 period were analyzed in separate samples. The labor cost improves the explanatory on both samples and the diversification proxy was significant in the hotel sample. Based on the results suggestions for further research were made.

Denna eventstudie syftar till att undersöka hur ett byte av noteringslista påverkar kumulativ onormal avkastning (CAR) 1 till och med 12 månader efter genomfört byte. I studien undersöks därför utförda byten av noteringsplats på den svenska aktiemarknaden under tidsperioden 1995-2009. I studien beräknas onormal avkastning delvis med marknadsmodellen (MM) som grund, men också med Fama & French tre-faktormodell (FF) för att öka reliabiliteten. Vidare undersöks om skillnader i CAR föreligger under olika tidsintervall samt om olikheter förekommer efter att berörda företag delats in i undergrupper baserade på typ av byte, industri samt storlek. Slutligen testas utifall den eventuella kumulativa onormala avkastningen är signifikant skild från noll med student t-test samt om det föreligger skillnader i medelvärde i de olika undergrupperna. Resultatet visar att den genomsnittliga kumulativa onormala avkastningen (CAR) uppgår till – 4,57 % (MM), - 3,74 % (FF) en månad efter bytet, vilket är signifikant på 1 % - nivån. Denna negativa tendens håller i sig och efter 12 månader uppvisas CAR på – 20,20 % (MM), -16,99 % (FF) även dessa statistisk säkerställda på 1 % - nivån. Detta resultat är i linje med liknade studier på andra aktiemarknader. Vi kan alltså dra slutsatsen att detta fenomen även föreligger på den svenska aktiemarknaden samt konstatera att händelsen listbyte är något både företag och aktieägare bör beakta mer varsamt.