本文利用向量自我迴歸模型所得出來的殘差值來模擬未預期到的總體經濟訊息，以期限利差和一個月定存利率來捕捉殖利率曲線，以違約利差和股利收益率來描繪資產報酬的條件機率分布，本文實證未預期到的期限利差和未預期到的違約風險與淨值市價比因子和市值規模因子包含相同的訊息，因此後續檢驗這些能夠捕捉未來投資機會的總體經濟訊息比起Fama-French三因子模型是否對台灣股票橫斷面的平均報酬更具有解釋能力。 實證方法採用Fama-MacBeth(1973)兩階段迴歸方法，Fama-French三因子模型實證結果顯示台灣股票市場存在著負向的淨值市價比效果，但卻不存在著規模效果，這與國外一些學者研究1980年代之後規模效果逐漸消失的結論相同。在實證未預期到的總體經濟訊息模型時，由於被解釋變數為股票超額報酬率，因此常數項應該為不顯著的關係，但此假設強烈的被未預期到的總體經濟訊息模型拒絕，代表此模型可能遺漏了重要的解釋變數。因此，Fama-French 三因子模型對台灣股票橫斷面平均報酬率的解釋能力比未預期到的總體經濟訊息模型更佳。 / The Fama and French factors HML and SMB are correlated with innovations in variables that describe investment opportunities. I find that shocks to term spread and shocks to default spread have the same information with the Fama and French factors HML and SMB. This paper investigates whether a model that includes shocks to the aggregate dividend yield and term spread, default spread, and one-month deposit interest rate can explain the cross section of average return on Taiwan stock market as well as the Fama and French can. Using the Fama-MacBeth (1973) two steps cross-sectional regressions, I find there exists the negative book-to-market effect on Taiwan stock market, but the size effect disappears. Since the dependent variables in the regression is excess returns, the intercept of the cross-sectional regression should be zero. This hypothesis is strongly rejected in the case of the model includes shocks to the Macroeconomics variables and the market portfolio. It means this model omits some important variables, so the Fama and French three-factor model can explain the cross section of average returns better.

Syfte: Syftet med studien är att analysera och utvärdera Carharts fyrfaktormodells och Fama- Frenchs trefaktormodells prestanda vid portföljavkastning på den svenska aktiemarknaden, under perioden 2011–2020. Teori: Denna studie grundar sig i den effektiva marknadshypotesen, Fama och Frenchs trefaktormodell samt Carharts fyrfaktormodell. Metod: En kvantitativ studie med ett deduktivt förhållningssätt. Undersökningen utför tester på den svenska aktiemarknaden under perioden 2011–2020 genom en regressionsanalys. Upptäckter: Carharts fyrfaktormodell har en högre justerad förklaringsgrad än trefaktormodellen, vilket drivs av modellens förmåga att förklara avkastning på portföljer sorterade efter storlek och momentum. Originalitet: Studien särskiljer sig på grund av avsaknaden av forskning på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Vidare bidrar studien till ett forskningsområde för små öppna ekonomier, där den svenska aktiemarknaden ingår. / Purpose: The purpose of the study is to analyze and evaluate Carhart's four-factor model’s and Fama-French's three-factor model's performance in portfolio returns on the Swedish stock market, during the period 2011–2020. Theory: This study is based on the effective market hypothesis, Fama and French's three- factor model and Carhart's four-factor model. Method: A quantitative study with a deductive approach. The survey performs tests on the Swedish stock market between the period 2011-2020 through a regression analysis. Findings: Carhart's four-factor model has a higher adjusted degree of explanation than the three-factor model, which is driven by the model's ability to explain returns on portfolios sorted by size and momentum. Originality: The study differs due to the lack of research on the Swedish stock market. Furthermore, the study contributes to a research area for small open economies, where the Swedish stock market is included.

The aim of this thesis is to examine an empirical relationship between multifrac- tality of financial time series and its returns. We approach the multifractality of a given time series as a measure of its complexity. Multifractal financial time series exhibit repeating self-similar patterns. Multifractality could be a good predictor of stock returns or a factor which can be used in asset pricing. We expected that capturing the complexity of a given time series by a model, a positive or a negative risk premia for investing into "more multifractal assets" could be found. Daily prices of 31 stock indices and daily returns of 10-years US government bonds were downloaded. All the data were recorded between 2012 and 2021. After estimation the multifractal spectra, applying MF-DFA method, of all stock indices, we ordered all stock indices from the lowest to the most multifractal. Then, we constructed a "multifractal portfolio" holding a long position in the 7 most multifractal and holding a short position in the 7 least multifractal stock indices. Fama-MacBeth regression with market risk premia and multifractal variable as independent variables was applied. Multi- fractality in all examined financial time series was found. We also found a very low negative risk premia for holding "a multifractal...

Sustainability has become a major societal trend and interest in sustainable investments has increased among investors. The purpose of this study is to investigate how sustainability affects Swedish funds' returns and risk. Since research on the impact of sustainability on funds focuses mostly on investments outside Sweden, this study has limited itself to Swedish funds to fill the gap in research. The study analyzes 67 Swedish funds during 2015-2019 using various models such as CAPM, Fama-French three-factor model and Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, the funds' sustainability is measured using Morningstar's sustainability rating. Results show no signs of linear regression between sustainability and results from different models and the results of the study are not statistically significant. Thus, the study concludes that it is not sustainability that affects risk and return among the Swedish funds, but there may be other factors that have not been taken into account in this study. However, previous research shows that sustainable funds perform better and are more stable during times of crisis. This study has not examined the Swedish funds during times of crisis, but this may be an interesting topic for future research. / Hållbarhet har blivit en stor samhällstrend och intresset för hållbara investeringar har ökat bland investerare. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur hållbarhet påverkar Sverigefonders avkastning och risk. Eftersom forskning kring hållbarhetens påverkan på fonder fokuserar mestadels på investeringar utanför Sverige har denna studie avgränsat sig till Sverigefonder för att fylla luckan i forskningen. Studien analyserar 67 Sverigefonder under 2015-2019 med hjälp av olika modeller såsom CAPM, Fama-French trefaktormodell och Sharpekvot. Vidare mäts fondernas hållbarhet med hjälp av Morningstar hållbarhetsbetyg. Resultat visar inga tecken på linjär regression mellan hållbarhet och resultat från olika modeller samt studiens resultat är inte statistiskt signifikanta. Därmed är studiens slutsats att det inte är hållbarhet som påverkar på risk och avkastning bland Sverigefonderna utan det kan vara andra faktorer som inte tagits hänsyn till i denna studie. Däremot visar tidigare forskning att hållbara fonder presterar bättre och är mer stabila under kristider. Denna studie har inte undersökt Sverigefonderna under kristider men detta kan vara ett intressant ämne för framtida forskning.

Over the past years, the total assets under management among hedge funds and equity mutual fundshave increased significantly. The question from an investor point of view iswhich investment vehicle can provide the greatest return adjusted for risk. The purpose of this study involves an analysis on the historical net asset values todetermine and evaluate what one can except from actively managed hedge andequity mutual funds. It supports the determination of the most profitable asset, adjusted for risk, as part of a diversified portfolio. The performance is measured net of fees and costs with the inclusion of potential performance fees individual hedge funds may apply. Hedge funds practice different investment approaches depending on what strategy is applied and hence, return levels can vary dramatically. The study is designed to answer questions by comparing net returns and risk-adjusted returns for respective investments and the different hedge fund strategies. With a deductive research approach, the analysis is conducted by applying existing models and theories as the Fama-French three-factor model through time-series regressions measuring excess returns (alpha), risk-adjusted performance measures as Sharpe ratio, M-squared and the Sortino ratio. The results show that hedge funds outperform equity mutual funds in all examined aspects and produce positive monthly net alphas,on average. Equity mutual funds are unable to provide investors with positive excess returns and subsequently fail the purpose of an actively managed fund by providing returns lower than the return of the market. The results are increasingly strengthened with both time-series regressions and performance measures showing homogenous results and reaching the equal conclusions. From the conclusions that hedge funds provide the most profitable investment compared to equity mutual funds, the hedge fund strategy CTA/managed futures strategies perform best in both net and risk-adjusted terms.

2008 is a special year for the global financial market. The global financial tsunami ignited from the U.S sub-prime mortgage crisis has caused Wall Street financial giants to collapse. The credit crunch in turn caused a contraction in the real economy and the world paid a heavy price for this financial tsunami. Charles Dickens quote¡G "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times ". Compared to European and the United States large-scale banks, China's banks are less opened and have relatively small exposure to derivative financial products. Consequently, these barriers have led them to limit their losses and write-downs from the sub-prime mortgage crisis. This thesis studies the major China-based banks¡¦ profitability by comparing these banks¡¦ financial and operational structures, and correlations to several economic factors. At the same time, Fama-French three-factor model was used to verify the efficiency of the China¡¦s stock market. The conclusions of this study are presented as follows¡G(a) Although these Chinese banks do have economies of scale, but the relationship between scale and profitability is not proportional. (b) Chinese banks are less affected by the financial crisis as a result of the high level of protection and control of the Chinese government, coupled with the fact that most of the Chinese banks¡¦ core operations are net interest income (c) lending activity¡B net interest margin¡B and asset quality are the key drivers for Chinese banks, and these three factors are mostly negatively correlated to the economic condition. (d) Based on the regression result of the Fama-French three factors model and the result of the T test, the relation of the excess return of the Chinese banks¡¦ Shanghai-listed A-shares to both the market value and the ratio of book to market value is significant while that of the Chinese banks¡¦ Hong Kong-listed H-shares is insignificant.

This paper investigates the impact of social norms on the performance and valuation of “controversial stocks”- publicly traded companies involved in the production of Adult Entertainment, Alcohol, Gambling, Nuclear Energy, Tobacco, Uranium, and Weapons. Their performance and valuation is directly compared with compare non-controversial stocks. The paper consider an international sample of 941 controversial stocks. Employing a multi-factor performance measure, seven countries provide a significant outperformance of controversial stocks across all relevant control factors. The valuation analysis, however, provide mixed results on a country level, but on the global market-to-book ratio provide a significant overvaluation of controversial stocks compared to comparable non-controversial stocks, which contradicts the prediction of an undervaluation.JEL classification:

Submitted by Mauro Mendes (maurorjbr@gmail.com) on 2013-09-03T03:25:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE - MAURO MENDES.pdf: 437308 bytes, checksum: eef5b6f9e8edb11b57b922f9f150863c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2013-10-07T18:46:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE - MAURO MENDES.pdf: 437308 bytes, checksum: eef5b6f9e8edb11b57b922f9f150863c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-10-09T13:48:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE - MAURO MENDES.pdf: 437308 bytes, checksum: eef5b6f9e8edb11b57b922f9f150863c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-24 / O objetivo dessa dissertação é analisar o impacto dos movimentos inesperados de variáveis macroeconômicas nos retornos das ações de empresas de diferentes setores. As variáveis macroeconômicas estudadas serão: produto, juros, inflação e preço de commodities. Estudam-se alguns modelos através de diferentes técnicas de regressão para se chegar àquele que tem a melhor especificação. Com o objetivo de melhorar o poder de explicação dos modelos são utilizados os três fatores de Fama e French como variáveis explicativas e outro modelo que além dos fatores de Fama e French incluiu também momentum. Procura-se analisar a magnitude do impacto dos movimentos inesperados das variáveis macroeconômicas e suas relevâncias estatísticas a cada setor. / The central purpose of this essay is to analyze the impact of unanticipated macroeconomic variables on companies returns in different sectors. The macroeconomic variables studied was: product, interest rates, inflation and commodity price. We study some models through different regression techniques to achieve the one with best specification. Aiming to improve the explanatory power of the models we used the three factors of Fama and French model as independent variables and another model that used in addition to the three factors of Fama and French the momentum factor. I pretended to analyze the magnitude of the impact of unanticipated macroeconomic variables and their relevance statistic to each sector.

Current multifactor valuation pricing models use size (measured by market capitalization) of a firm as one factor to determine the value of a security. The problem with current standard models was that none of them could explain the value of a security consistently and accurately based on current factors and in particular the size factor. The purpose of this quantitative study using existing time-series data over a 10-year period from 2006 to 2015 was to examine the impact of size factor on the realized rate of return of financial securities, while controlling for the impact of market rate of return. There are currently many valuation models but there is no 2-factor model or a model that uses a size factor that includes mid-cap sized securities. The research questions examined mid-cap sized securities for the size factor in a 2-factor model to determine the accuracy of predicting financial returns compared to the current standard Fama-French 3-factor model. The main theoretical framework that guided the study was the efficient market hypothesis that postulates that the price of a stock reflects all relevant available information. Data were collected for historical returns of 15 individual firms and portfolios of securities based on size. Multiple regression analysis methodology was used to examine the impact of size factor on the realized rate of return of financial securities, while controlling for the impact of market rate of return in the modified 2-factor model that included mid-caps. The results of the study indicate that size is a statistically significant factor in a 2-factor model that included mid-caps. The positive social impact of this study is that it could provide greater confidence in financial markets by providing a fair and equitable means of investment and flow of capital for a robust economy.

This thesis wants to explore the forecasting potential of the multi-factor models to predict excess returns of the aggregated portfolio of the European stock mar- ket. These factors provided by Fama and French and Carhart are well-known in the field of asset pricing, we also add several financial and macroeconomic factors according to the literature. We establish a benchmark model of ARIMA and we compare the forecasting errors of OLS and the LSTM neural networks. Both models take the lagged excess returns and the inputs. We measure the performance with the root mean square error and mean absolute error. The results suggest that neural networks are in this particular task capable of bet- ter predictions given the same input as OLS but their forecasting error is not significantly lower according to the Diebold-Mariano test. JEL Classification C45, C53, C61, E37, G11, G15 Keywords Stocks, European market, Neural networks, LSTM, Factor Models, Fama-French, Predic- tions, RMSE Title Does LSTM neural network improve factor mod- els' predictions of the European stock market?