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Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Daniel Nicolau Ferrara.pdf: 1124449 bytes, checksum: 7323f16541b3af1bf71cf2dc57b02b5d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-13 / In the analysis of the origins of the severe financial crisis, which began in 2007 in the US, remains an open debate about the reasons that led the Fed to underestimate the severity of the crisis. This study analyzes the perceptions of Central Bank on the peculiar context that has developed from 2001. The economic recovery was based on consumption and housing market, including the income extraction derived from valued housing, and followed by the risk of deflation, which subsequently led to growing fears about what was happening in the markets. The instrument used for this is the thorough analysis of the minutes of the FOMC and the pronouncements of the two presidents of the Fed, from 2001 to 2007, Greenspan and Bernanke, in addition to theoretical concepts and economic problems of that period. The methodology is justified because the communication with the market has become a relevant instrument in the Fed's action since the 1990s. The analysis of documents showed that in the aftermath of the crises of 2001-2002, the Fed used to acknowledge consumption and housing market to be important forces in the economic recovery. From 2003-2004, the FOMC members showed concern about the speculative behavior in housing and the effects of the reversal of the expansionary monetary policy would have on property prices and on consumption. The Fed's action to combat these threats was restrained by the belief in the strength of the deregulated financial system, by pragmatic confidence in the conduct of monetary policy guided by the risk management approach and the belief that Central Bank should not act against the formation of bubbles / Na análise das origens da grave crise financeira iniciada, em 2007, nos EUA, permanece em aberto o debate a respeito dos motivos que levaram o Fed a subestimar a gravidade da crise em formação. Este estudo analisa as percepções do BC sobre o quadro peculiar que se desenvolveu, a partir de 2001. A recuperação econômica foi pautada no consumo e no mercado imobiliário, inclusive na extração de renda derivada da valorização dos imóveis, seguida do risco de deflação que, posteriormente, deu lugar a receios crescentes em relação ao que ocorria nos mercados. O instrumento utilizado para isso é a análise minuciosa das atas do FOMC e os pronunciamentos dos dois presidentes do Fed, de 2001 a 2007, Greenspan e Bernanke, além das concepções teóricas e problemas conjunturais do período. A metodologia de análise justifica-se porque a comunicação com o mercado tornou-se instrumento relevante na ação do Fed, desde os anos 1990. A análise dos documentos mostrou que, no rescaldo das crises, de 2001-2002, o Fed reconhecia no consumo e no mercado imobiliário forças importantes na recuperação econômica. A partir de 2003-2004, membros do FOMC demonstravam preocupação quanto ao comportamento especulativo no mercado imobiliário e os efeitos que a reversão da política monetária expansionista teria sobre os preços dos imóveis e sobre o consumo. A ação do Fed para combater esses riscos foi contida pela crença na resistência do sistema financeiro desregulamentado, pela confiança na condução pragmática da política monetária orientada pelo risk management approach e pela convicção de que BC não deve agir frente à formação de bolhas

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:49:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Olivia Maria Bullio Mattos.pdf: 922804 bytes, checksum: 3e7bae29d19a9a942f72caf436c16254 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-05-19 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / In mid-2007, the world faced one of the biggest crisis capitalism ever experienced, called the subprime crisis, which originated in the US housing market. The Federal Reserve (Fed) had to act promptly, trying to rescue the markets. However, the Federal Reserve, which had always been pragmatic, found itself in great distress when the traditional tools of monetary policy were not enough to stop the liquidity crisis. The Fed had to act aggressively both as a lender of last resort and expanding the monetary base to halt the risk of a widespread "default" in the inter-bank market. Using changes in the size and composition of the Fed's Balance Sheet From July of 2007 to September of 2009, this dissertation analyses the actions taken and new tools created to fight the crisis. Initially, the dissertation presents the prevailing thesis up to the subprime crisis, which were the financial deregulation and the monetary authority's goal of price stability. The dissertation then discusses the Post- Keynesians and Minsky's take of the capitalistic economy, a more adequate view to understand the crisis and the preceding financial processes. In conclusion, the lessons learned from the subprime crisis are that we should rethink how we regulate financial institutions and products created by such institutions in pursue of profit; we should also rethink the way we do monetary policy and its objectives / Em meados de 2007, o mundo se viu a frente de uma das maiores crises financeiras já vividas pelo capitalismo, a chamada crise subprime, que teve sua origem no mercado imobiliário norte-americano. Foi necessário que o Federal Reserve (Fed) agisse e tentasse resgatar o mercado. No entanto, o Banco Central americano, que sempre foi pragmático, se viu em dificuldades quando os instrumentos tradicionais de política monetária não mais conseguiram conter a crise de iliquidez. Foi preciso então atuar agressivamente como emprestador de última instância e expandir a base monetária para conter os riscos de inadimplência generalizada no mercado interbancário. Através da análise das mudanças na composição e tamanho do Balance Sheet do Fed de julho de 2007 a setembro de 2009, esta dissertação analisa as ações e novos instrumentos criados para conter a crise. Inicialmente apresenta-se as teses dominantes até então, que eram de desregulamentação do mercado financeiro e de mandato de estabilidade de preços para a autoridade monetária. Em seguida, discute-se o entendimento de Minsky e dos pós-keynesianos da economia capitalista, uma visão mais adequada para compreender a crise e os processos financeiros precedentes. Conclui-se que as lições tiradas da crise mostram que deve-se repensar o formato de regulação das instituições financeiras e dos produtos criados por elas para busca de lucros; deve-se rever a maneira como é feita a política monetária e seus objetivos

Observers of neo-liberal persuasion claim that a financial system free of government regulation can lead to better allocation of resources and if the actual process of deregulation is done properly, the results can benefit society as a whole. Deregulation requires dismantling those state-based banking structures that are perceived as economically inefficient. This approach sets up a dichotomy between financial deregulation, which is portrayed as an intrinsic part of economic progress, and state regulation, which is seen as a force that interferes with entrepreneurial freedom and efficiency. This thesis argues that such a dichotomy can only be possible within the dominant neo-liberal discourses on the economy that have displaced Keynesian style economic management in core and peripheral areas of the world. Following Marxist structural approaches I also argue that financial deregulation is a class-based project that opens up profit sites and reflects the crisis in capitalist accumulation occurring in the latter part of the 20th century. Unlike neo-liberal followers I contend that the role of the state in maintaining and/or transforming capitalist structures in order to achieve certain outcomes (whatever they might be) is crucial in nation-building strategies in peripheral countries such as Costa Rica. As in many other countries, credit allocation was actively used in this country, for some thirty years in order to achieve high levels of investment, economic planning and re-distributive policies. However, the once fully nationalised banking system, as one of the few mechanisms available to the state to regulate savings and offer credit to different socio-economic groups, has gone through dramatic changes in the period from 1980-2000. Using a modified version of Hirschman's exit/voice framework for financial systems and available institutional data, I suggest that Costa Rica has moved from having a financial system that was predominantly owned by the state (public) and whose institutional arrangements were elite-led to one whose ownership is mixed but still led by elites. However if the trend persists I anticipate that it will become a predominantly privately owned system with an equal mixture of elite-voice and exit institutions.

近年來，隨著國內產業結構之轉變，以及金融自由化政策之推動，企業經營環境已隨著大幅改變。本研究的目的，主要在於探討這些轉變對於國內上市公司資本結構是否會造成重大的影響。 　　本研究資料乃取自教育部EPS資料庫與臺灣經濟新報社資料庫，樣本期間為民國78年到82年，共120家上市公司。研究方法主要採用變異成份模型(Variance Component Model)與誤差成份模型(Error Component Model)來研究上市公司資本結構的影響因素。並作共線性檢定、自我相關檢定及異質性檢定，若有異質變異數之現象產生，則以White [1980]之方法加以修正。 　　變異成份模型實證結果發現在分析資本結構的時候，以個別公司為分析單位較以假設個別公司同質的整個產業為分析單位為適當。 　　誤差成份模型實證結果發現（一）在全部產業方面：獲利能力、股利支付率與負債比率呈顯著負相關；資產抵押價值、成長機會、規模大小、稅盾利益、金融開放程度與負債比率呈顯著正相關；而營運風險、研究發展費用率、廣告費用率與負債比率雖不顯著，但是為負值。（二）在製造業方面：獲利能力、股利支付率、研究發展費用率與負債比率呈顯著負相關；成長機會、稅盾利益、金融開放程度與負債比率呈顯著正相關；而營運風險、廣告費用率與負債比率皆不顯著，但為負值，而資產抵押價值、規模大小與負債比率亦不顯著，但為正值。（三）在非製造業方面：獲利能力、廣告費用率、股利支付率與負債比率呈顯著負相關；資產抵押價值、規模大小、研究發展費用率、金融開放程度與負債比率呈顯著正相關；而營運風險與負債比率呈不顯著，但為負值，而成長機會、稅盾利益與負債比率呈不顯著，但為正值。

The purpose of this study is to develop an indebtedness framework that explains the effects of financialisation and household indebtedness on economic development. For this purpose, the study empirically examines annual South African data covering the years 1990-2017 to look at the effect of financialisation before and after the 2007/08 financial crisis. South Africa adopted an inflation targeting monetary policy regime in the 1990s before the global economic crisis in response to the global financial crisis of 2007-08. Examining data from 1990-2017 made it possible to look at the effects of financial deregulation policies that were introduced post the 2007-08 financial meltdown. The study addressed three objectives. The first objective sought to establish the extent of financialisation in the South African economy pre and post the 2008 financial crisis. To achieve this objective, annual time series data from 1990-2017 on financialisation variables was split into two, before and after the financial crisis. Graphical presentations of the four financialisation variables (financial deregulation, foreign financial inflows, asset price volatility, and shift to market-based finance) showed that there was a difference in financialisation before and after the 2008 financial crisis. Analysis of variance showed that there is a statistically significant difference between the foreign financial inflows’ series before and after the financial meltdown of 2008 (t-test value -6.527, p ≤ 0.0001). (1990-2008). The findings also showed that there was no statistically significant difference between asset price volatility before and after the financial meltdown of 2008. Interestingly, there is a statistically significant difference between stock market value traded in the period from 1990-2008 and 20092017 after the financial crisis (t = -4.295, p ≤0.001). The second objective sought to examine the causal direction between financialisation and household indebtedness. Contrary to a priori expectations, the findings showed that financial deregulation, foreign financial inflows and shift to market-based finance do not Granger cause indebtedness. However, the findings showed that the null hypothesis that asset price does not Granger cause household indebtedness was rejected. This implies that there is a causal direction between asset price volatility and household indebtedness Lastly, the third objective of this study was to explain the effects of financialisation and indebtedness on economic development to inform the indebtedness framework that this study set out to develop. Using annual data for the period of 1990 to 2017, the third objective was addressed by examining the effect of household indebtedness and financialisation on economic development. These effects were tested using OLS regression and error correction modelling technique (ECM) for each of the four financialisation variable: (1) financial deregulation measured using the financial reform index; (2) foreign financial inflows measured using stock of foreign liabilities as percentage of GDP; (3) asset price volatility; and (4) shift to market-based finance, measured using stock market value traded as percentage of GDP. The findings showed that foreign financial inflows and asset price index when regressed with household indebtedness showed a statistically significant effect on economic development in a long-run model. The indebtedness framework was duly presented showing that economic development is likely to be negatively and strongly affected by financialisation as experienced in asset price volatility and foreign financial inflows. / Graduate School of Business Leadership / D.B.L.