[pt] Os Bancos Estaduais sempre foram motivo de instabilidade e de desequilíbrios no Sistema Financeiro Nacional (SFN). Vários programas de ajuste foram tentados ao longo dos anos mas, ou apenas resolviam os problemas de liquidez imediata das instituições ou interviam nestas sem um plano efetivo de saneamento ou extinção. Essa dissertação faz uma análise sobre a trajetória das instituições financeiras estaduais desde a reforma do Sistema Financeiro Nacional (SFN) em 1964 até o último destes programas, o Programa de Redução da Participação do Setor Público Estadual na Atividade Bancária (PROES). Inicialmente é feito um histórico dos Bancos Estaduais, estudando-se a situação do Sistema Financeiro Estadual (SFE). A seguir, faz-se uma descrição dos principais desenvolvimentos do PROES. Por fim, a dissertação avalia os ganhos de eficiência dos Bancos Estaduais com o PROES, comparando a situação antes e depois da sua implementação, tanto por meio de indicadores contábeis (unidimensionais), quanto por um índice multi- dimensional obtido através de procedimentos econométricos. / [en] The State Banks were always cause of instability and imbalances in the National Financial System (SFN). Many adjustment programs were tried throughout the years, but they either only solved the immediate liquidity problems of that institutions or intervened on it without a effective plan of financial consolidation or extinction. This dissertation makesan analysis of the trajectory of the states financial institution from Natonal Financial Sytem's reform, in 1964, until the most recent restructuring program, The Program of Reduction of the State Public Sector Participation in a Bank Activity (PROES). Initially it describes the evolution of the State Banks and their role in the State Financial System (SFE). Then, it describes the main events that marked the implementation of the PROES. Finally, an empirical analysis is made of the eficiency gains generated by the PROES with a comparison of the banks situation before and after the introuction of th program. Such analysis is conducted both by unidimensional accouting measures and by multi-dimenional index obtained through the use of the econometric techniques. / [es] Los Bancos Estaduales siempre fueron motivo de inestabilidad y desequilibrios en el Sistema Financiero Nacional (SFN). Varios programas de ajuste se han llevado a cabo a lo largo de los años pero apenas resolvían los problemas de líquidez inmediata de las instituiciones o intervenían en éstas sin un plano efectivo de saneamiento o extinción. Esta disertación hace un análisis sobre la trayectoria de las instituciones financieras estaduales desde la reforma del Sistema Financiero Nacional (SFN) en 1964 hasta el último de estos programas, el Programa de Reducción de la Participación del Sector Público Estadual en la Actividad Bancaria (PROES). Inicialmente se realiza una decripción histórica de los Bancos Estaduales, estudiando la situación del Sistema Financiero Estadual (SFE). A seguir, se describen los principales desarrollos del PROES. Finalmente, la disertación evalúa la ganancia en eficiencia de los Bancos Estaduales com el PROES, comparando la situación antes y después de su implementación, tanto por medio de indicadores contables (unidimensionales), como por un índice multi-dimensional obtenido a través de procedimentos econométricos.

Conventional wisdom is that fiscal policy at the regional level is ineffective. Recent concern about stability of bond-financed fiscal policy imposes an additional constraint on the effectiveness of interregional fiscal policy. In the conventional macroeconomic model, regional public sectors are ignored, or are at most a subset of the national model. Fiscal and financial interrelationships among different levels of government have not been investigated thoroughly in the literature. The purpose of this dissertation is to provide a theoretical framework for the analysis of interregional fiscal policy. We argue that all government budget constraints must be explicitly included in the model, and regions become the major building blocks of the system. Stability of the system then defends on the fiscal and financial interrelationships among different levels of government. We examine a once-and-for-all fiscal policy change in the interregional model with and without the federal sector. The simulated results based on an acceptable range of parameter values show that the system cannot generate a stable long-run equilibrium. At best, a quasi-equilibrium is attainable in that only the overall government budget constraint is satisfied. A once-and-for-all policy change is not only irrelevant in reality since public sectors react to actual economic situations, but also becomes a source of instability in an interregional model. The final version of the interregional model incorporates an endogenous fiscal policy. Government expenditure becomes an endogenous variable and fiscal policies are target-oriented. The income level and balanced-budget are the main targets. A system of government expenditure reaction functions is built into the model with each governnent adopting an active fiscal policy in order to achieve income and balanced-budget targets. The public sector adjusts its fiscal policy according to the last period' s economic situation. The extent of these government expenditure changes is governed by the target-adjustment parameters. Each government has its own priority or objective in determining the target-adjustment parameter values. The simulated results show that the interregional model can generate a stable long-run equilibrium, regardless of the mode of federal financing policy. The effectiveness of an active fiscal policy and the critical limits of these target-adjustment parameters are investigated. Of prime importance is the finding that an independent regional fiscal policy cannot generate a stable long-run equilibrium. Only when all governments cooperate actively in fiscal managanent can the system achieve the targets. Thus, the final version of the interregional model not only rejects independent regional fiscal policies, but requires coordination and cooperation among all governments in devising a viable fiscal policy. Our simulation findings therefore strengthen the case for fiscal federalism. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

What is the optimal interaction between macroprudential and fiscal policy to foster financial stability? This thesis evaluates whether policy interaction can impact private debt growth. First, a model is built with borrowing constraints that illustrate the links between private and public debt dynamics. The derived hypothesis and theoretical predictions indicate that a tighter macroprudential stance is reinforced by prudential fiscal policies, conditional on the initial level of public debt and scope for countercyclical fiscal policies. Second, the hypothesis is tested by using a dynamic panel data model for a sample of 49 advanced and emerging economies over the period 2000-2013. Whilst the interaction term alone yields insignificant results, interesting inferences can be drawn of the findings within the context of existing literature. The suggestion is that there may exist two opposing effects associated with the interaction between macroprudential and fiscal policy on private debt. Moreover the outcome of this interaction is contingent upon the levels of public debt and private indebtedness.

The United States suffered a severe financial crisis in September of 2008, the effects of which are still strongly reverberating throughout the national economy and the finances of American government. While the financial downturn greatly exacerbated the nation's immediate fiscal stress, government policies have played a large role in the longer-term economic challenges. The buildup of financial insecurity for individuals and businesses since the 1970s, brought to painfully emphatic clarity by the 2008 financial crash, has citizens of all political persuasions deeply concerned about the future of the Republic. This thesis attempts to explain the historical context which is indispensable to understanding the significance of our current fiscal challenges. In doing so, we come to the conclusion that rising entitlement spending, coupled with severe problems within the nation's tax system, have become the primary drivers of the significant fiscal stress that is building. I argue that the most immediately viable option for reversing this trend, in a way that supports economic opportunity for all, is to implement fundamental tax reform to lift the current system's burdens of complication, inefficiency, and inequity off the shoulders of American taxpayers and businesses. / Master of Public and International Affairs

This study develops dynamic, integrated fiscal impact models for Virginia counties and cities. It develops a theoretical base using analysis of the supply and demand for public goods and review of the literature of impact modeling. The empirical models are based on a static cross sectional econometric analysis of all Virginia counties and independent cities. The simulation models allow the comparison of impact and baseline scenarios developed using a broad range of economic, fiscal, and demographic variables. Validation of baseline scenarios for the simulation models are based on a sample of 12 counties and 12 cities. The ability of the models to perform well in a baseline case is analyzed using Theil' s coefficients and various other measures of Mean Square Error. / M.S.

The purpose of this study is assess the domestic regional impacts of changes in federal fiscal policies and the nation's trade deficit. An attempt is made to fill a gap in the literature of regional economics by providing an explanation of how economic changes at national and international levels are transmitted to regions, and by providing general-equilibrium estimates of the effects of these changes. The level of regional economic activity is assumed to be linked to the federal budget through federal purchases of goods and services, through intergovernmental transfers, and through net transfers to households. Domestic regions are linked to the balance of trade through shifts in exports and imports and through shifts in net income transfers from abroad. An interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed and calibrated for Virginia and the rest of the United States (ROUS). Scenarios approximating federal fiscal policies and the trade deficit during the period 1981-85 are introduced, and the model is solved to obtain a new equilibrium. As a result of these shocks, it is concluded: (a) that the magnitude of sectoral effects differed in Virginia versus ROUS, (b) that in contrast to non-rural sectors, rural sectors in Virginia experienced slower growth in value added, (c) that investment in Virginia and in ROUS increased in response to the net inflow of savings from abroad, but the increase was mitigated by the rise in federal spending, and (d) that a tariff increase on the output of the apparel and textile industry would increase output in that industry in Virginia but would decrease it in other industries if the economy were fully employed. / Ph. D.

Yes / This paper builds a framework to jointly examine the possibility of both `expansionary fiscal contractions' (austerity increasing output) and `fiscal free lunches' (expansions reducing government debt), arguments supported by the austerity and stimulus camps, respectively, in recent debates. We propose a new metric quantifying the budgetary implications of fiscal action, a key aspect of fiscal policy particularly at the monetary zero lower bound. We find that austerity needs to be highly persistent and credible to be expansionary, and stimulus temporary, responsive and well-targeted in order to lower debt. We conclude that neither are likely, especially during periods of economic distress.

Unanticipated economic fluctuations exert pressure on state governments to adjust their discretionary fiscal policies to accommodate the changing fiscal situation. Even though states adjust fiscal policy as the economy fluctuates, the typical cyclical economic factors are not the sole determinant of such adjustments. State governments budgeting systems in the United States operate under a variety of budgetary institutions. The most prominent state government budgetary institutions include balanced budget rules (BBRs), tax and expenditure limits (TELs), and supermajority voting requirements for tax increases. This dissertation examines how these budgetary institutions affect state government choices of fiscal policy under different economic conditions. To better understand the effect of state level TELs, a stringency index of state level TEL is constructed considering the major structural features. The fixed-effect panel regressions are used for the analysis of impact of TEL and BBR and tax changes and the fixed-effect Tobit is adopted to test the impact of TEL and BBR on spending cuts after the budget is adopted. The result suggests that TEL plays a more important role affecting states discretionary fiscal adjustment from the tax side, while BBR plays a more important role affecting states discretionary fiscal adjustment from the expenditure side. Results of this research show that TEL exerts pressure on states that hinder state ability to deal with volatile fiscal situations, especially in the case of periods of budget crises.

The UK, traditionally one of the more fiscally centralised of OECD countries, is currently in the midst of an extensive programme of tax decentralisation. This is most evident in Scotland. Ten years ago the Scottish Government was almost wholly reliant on a block grant from the UK Government to fund its spending, and debate was focussed on how the determination of this grant should be reformed. Today the Scottish Government has far greater fiscal autonomy. Income tax was almost fully devolved to the Scottish Parliament in April 2017, and around half of VAT revenues will be assigned to Scotland by 2020. As a result, the devolved Scottish budget will in future be linked much more closely to Scotland’s economy, and Scottish politicians will be able to deviate from UK policy on the setting of income tax and various smaller taxes. The objective of this PhD is to examine the economic and political motivations for and implications of greater fiscal decentralisation, with a particular focus on the Scottish case. Its key over-arching questions include: • Which fiscal powers are more and less suitable for decentralisation, and what might constraints might a devolved government face in exercising devolved tax powers? • To what extent are the objectives of fiscal decentralisation compatible with the goal of inter-regional equity in public good provision? • To what extent is fiscal decentralisation likely to enhance the incentives faced by politicians in a devolved parliament to pursue particular types of policy? And to what extent does the answer to this question depend upon the way in which supporting fiscal institutions, notably including the design of block grant arrangements, influence this? • What factors determine regional economic performance, and to what extent can devolved governments be held accountable for (or face the budgetary consequences of) those trends? • To what extent might fiscal decentralisation assuage or accentuate demands for Scottish independence? This PhD consists of four academic papers covering aspects of regional economics and constitutional change in the UK, with a particular focus on Scotland. Each of the four papers is preceded by an abstract. An introductory chapter provides theoretical and policy context within which the four papers are situated. A concluding section to the PhD is provided in Chapter 6. The four papers cover the following topics: • Paper 1 (Chapter 2) was published in the immediate aftermath of the Scottish independence referendum of 2014, and considers the issues and constraints involved in devolving further fiscal powers to the Scottish Parliament. • Paper 2 (Chapter 3) considers the scope for replacing the Barnett Formula (used to allocate funding to the Scottish Government) with a form of spending-needs assessment, based on a comparative analysis of formulae used within England and Scotland to allocate health funding to territorial health boards. • Paper 3 (Chapter 4) examines how regional labour markets in the UK responded to the 2008/9 recession and its aftermath, and considers which factors may have influenced regional resilience to the recession. • Paper 4 (Chapter 5) examines the factors that determine differential growth in regional income tax revenues, and considers the extent to which it is reasonable to hold devolved governments wholly to account for differential economic performance. • Chapter 6 concludes.

Thesis (MAdmin)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The study is devoted to the determination of an appropriate financial management and budgeting system to support a transforming South Africa. Given the challenges and opportunities presented by the new political dispensation, both locally and abroad, the evolution of financial management and budgeting systems is analysed. Specifically, elements of each budgetary system that stood the test of time to the present, are studied. International case studies of countries that have undergone (or are undergoing) the transformation process successfully, or otherwise, are fully discussed to serve as invaluable lessons and experience for South Africa on its quest for a smooth and swift transformation, to prevent it from ending up as just another unsuccessful transformation. This then serves as a broad foundation for an appropriate financial management and budgeting system which is proactive in the transformation process. South Africa will not reinvent the wheel. Unlike other countries that waited for transformation problems to fall upon them, the South African financial management and budgeting system manipulates the financial management policies. It achieves this by broadly defining the objectives to be achieved through prioritisation and reprioritisation, formulate clear strategies for shortterm, medium-term and long-term plans, goals, processes, functions and activities. It applies all the positive elements of input-orientated systems, activity/ performance measuring systems, objective/goal-orientated system, medium term expenditure framework and multi-year budgets studied and drawn from lessons and experience of other countries. South Africa's appropriate financial management and budgeting system is a broad crosswalk model vacillating between all systems from a broad definition of objectives, goals, processes and activities ending up with a strong financial management tool. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dié studie word gewy aan die daarstelling van 'n Geskikte Finansiële Bestuur en Begrotingstelsel om 'n veranderende Suid-Afrika te ondersteun. Teen die agtergrond van die uitdagings daargestel deur die nuwe politieke bestel word die revolusie van finansiële bestuur- en begrotingstelsels plaaslik en in die buiteland ontleed en in perspektief geplaas. Meer spesifiek is die elemente van elke begrotingstelsel wat die toets van die tyd deurstaan het, bestudeer. Internasionale studies van lande wat die veranderingsproses suksesvol ondergaan het (of tans daarmee besig is), of andersins, word volledig bespreek om as 'n onskatbare les en ondervinding vir Suid-Afrika in sy soektog na 'n gladde en vinnige transformasie te dien en om te verhoed dat dit op net nog 'n onsuksesvolle transformasie uitloop. Dit dien dan as 'n breë grondslag vir 'n Geskikte Finansiële Bestuur- en Begrotingstelsel wat proaktief in die Suid-Afrikaanse transformasieproses is. Suid-Afrika sal nie die wiel kan heruitvind nie. Anders as in ander lande wat op transformasieprobleme gewag het om hulle te tref, kan die Suid- Afrikaanse Finansiële Bestuur- en Begrotingstelsels finansiële bestuursbeleid pro-aktief ondersteun. Dit word bewerkstellig deur 'n omvattende bepaling van die mikpunte wat bereik moet word deur priorisering en herpriorisering van planne, doelwitte, prosesse, funksies en aktiwiteite op die kort, medium en lang termyn. Dit is moontlik indien al die positiewe elemente van verskillende finansiële bestuur- en begrotingsteiseis, soos bestudeer in en geleer uit ander lande se ondervindings toegepas word. Suid-Afrika se Finansiële Bestuur- en Begrotingstelsel behels 'n breë omvattende model wat put uit al die stelsels wat 'n bepaling van doelstellings, mikpunte, prosesse en aktiwiteite bevat ten einde te eindig met 'n sterk Finansiële Bestuurswerktuig.