自1978年中國開始經濟的改革開放政策以來，吸引外資便成為其推動經濟成長的重要手段之一。1992年鄧小平南巡，再一次宣示建立「社會主義的市場經濟體制」後，由於開放的經濟政策更為明朗，使越來越多的國家到中國直接投資。自此，中國成為全世界最受歡迎的外資投資國之一。甚至在2002年超越美國，成為全世界最大的外資接受國。如此多的國家對中國展開大規模的投資，其投資的規模與投資地區的選擇卻有相當大的差異。因此，本文的研究目的，將以1993至2003年世界各國對中國投資的追蹤資料（panel data），搭配固定效果模型（fixed-effect model）與隨機效果模型（random-effect model）的估計，並以目前中國沿海發展具代表性的北京、上海與廣東三個省（市）之比較，探究影響世界各國對中國直接投資的決定因素。 實證結果發現影響外商直接投資北京、上海與廣東的決定因素中，顯著影響的變數為相對工資率、對中國貿易依存度、相對匯率以及相對借貸成本。而其餘的變數，如相對國內生產毛額、相對每人國內生產毛額和相對國家風險等皆不顯著，反映了其皆非外商直接投資中國時所考量的決定因素。 / Since 1978, China has adopted the so-called “open door policy”, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) has become one of the most important methods to facilitate its economic growth. However, foreign countries didn’t invest large amount toward China until Deng Xiaoping’s southern trip in 1992. The purpose of this study is thus to investigate the determinants of FDI from different foreign countries to different regions in China after foreign countries started to invest tremendous amount toward China. This study adopts fixed-effect model and random-effect model to investigate the determinants of FDI in China with panel data of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong during the period of 1993-2003. The result shows relative wage rate, trade dependence to China, relative exchange rate and relative borrowing cost are the most important factors in attracting FDI in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong during 1993-2003. Finally, in order to reduce the mistakes occurred in positive models and enable the study more rigorous, then uses more methods to test the models and the result.

城市化意味着城市的經濟結構、社會結構和空間結構變遷。隨着中國大陸城市化的推進，城市人口遷移、建成區面積增長，城市發展質量逐步提高，而同期內城市商品住宅價格亦呈現普遍而明顯的上漲趨勢。 過去雖有許多國內外文獻對全國城市商品住宅價格的影響因素進行了探討，但少有文獻從城市化的層面着眼進行研究；在部分集中討論城市化效應的文獻中，亦存在以省域代替城市作爲研究對象，以及採用橫截面數據進行實證研究，未能體現不同城市化和社會經濟發展階段之變動趨勢的缺憾。 有鑑於此，本文使用中國大陸2003年至2011年不同規模城市的相關追蹤資料，以“人口城市化”“土地城市化”和城市發展質量優化作爲城市化的主要體現，用從業人口、建設用地面積、房地產開發投資額等一系列指標作爲自變數構建追蹤資料固定效應模型，分析城市化對不同規模城市商品住宅價格的影響，探究中國大陸社會經濟重要發展來源的城市化能否繼續維持城市商品住宅市場的穩定。實證結果顯示，城市化發展對城市商品住宅價格上漲的貢獻明顯，而人口城市化的作用較之土地城市化更爲顯著；大城市和中小城市在城市化發展過程中商品住宅價格影響因素亦有所不同，城市發展中由政府主導的城市土地開發利用與基礎設施建設應集約化發展，土地城市化必須與人口城市化以及城市發展質量提升相互協調。 / Urbanization means changes of cities ‘economic structure, social structure and spatial structure. With the development of Chinese urbanization, the urban population and construction land area is growing, the urban development quality is improving gradually, in the same period city residential housing prices also presents common and obvious rising trend. In the past, although there were many domestic and external literature focusing on the influence factors of the national urban residential housing prices, but there were few literature based the study on the impact of urbanization; many of literatures in which the urbanization effect discussed, also taken provincial data as the research object instead of city , using cross-sectional data for empirical research, so failed to reflect changes in different stages of urbanization and social and economic development trend. In light of this, this article refer to mainland China from 2003 to 2011, 213 level panel data, related to "land urbanization" and "population urbanization" quality optimization as the main embodiment of urbanization, taking urban working population, construction land area, real estate investment and a series of indicators as independent variables to construct panel fixed effects model, in order to analyze the effect of urbanization on the urban residential property prices. We expect to explore whether if mainland China's urbanization, which is a source of important social and economic development of the nation, will continue to maintain the stability of the urban residential market. Empirical results indicates that the influence of urbanization on city residential housing price is evident, besides population urbanization plays a more important role than land urbanization. In the process of urbanization, the influential factors of residential housing price varying in metropolis and small cities, therefore development of urban land dominated by local government ought to realize intensification, and land urbanization should be coordinated with population urbanization and city development quality.

中國大陸自改革開放之後，其經濟成長之快速，成功歸究於自由的市場經濟。然而2008金融海嘯爆發後，使得各國開始檢視過度的分權和市場自由化的適度性。中央政府和地方政府，如何在權利和稅收的分配上，達成一最適的規模？如何有效運用財政地方分權？將是一門複雜且重要的議題。 本研究之研究目的主要有以下幾點：第一，希望能藉由相關理論文獻，解釋財政地方分權對中國省、市之間地方財政赤字是否會有所影響或是關聯，將以此為本研究之理論基礎，並且進行實證的檢驗；第二，將以1994年以後中國財政改革以後之財政相關資料，利用中國31個省、市的追蹤資料，資料蒐集期間涵蓋1995年至2010年，以各年各省、市的財政赤字作為衡量該省、市的財政情形，以期能夠了解各地區財政的影響情形； 第三，本研究建立一個二因子固定效果模型，來檢視中國31個省市財政分權對其地方財政赤字的影響，並將各省市的情形做歸納；第四，從實證模型中發現，財政地方分權與地方財政赤字間的關聯性為一非線性關係且具有U型曲線關係；最後，利用實證結果來提供具體的政策建議。 / Fiscal decentralization is considered as one of the successful institutional reforms to promote the development of China.In order to attract the resource, the regions have to improve or maintain their finance. Therefore, what issues will improve the provincial local government deficit becoming an immense problem. How to use fiscal decentralization tool？It will be an important issue. The research purpose of this literature is to use the empirical model with the panel data which includes 31 provinces, cities and regions in China during the period of 1995 to 2010 as well as to search the following question. First , analyse the provincial local government deficit and find out the determinative factors of regional deficit. Second, in order to realize the precise relationship between the fiscal decentralization and the provincial local government deficit, this study establishes 2 ways fixed effect model. Finally, to reducing the mistakes occurred in positive models and enabling the study more rigorous, this study uses more methods to test the models and the result. Finally, to reducing the mistakes occurred in positive models and enabling the study more rigorous, this study uses more methods to test the models and the result.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2018-07-13T15:08:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 thandaramariakathleendasilva.pdf: 8098059 bytes, checksum: 10b3e2aa5918f7826b5f18da04cfae69 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-09-03T16:17:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 thandaramariakathleendasilva.pdf: 8098059 bytes, checksum: 10b3e2aa5918f7826b5f18da04cfae69 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-03T16:17:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 thandaramariakathleendasilva.pdf: 8098059 bytes, checksum: 10b3e2aa5918f7826b5f18da04cfae69 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-12 / O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o retorno eleitoral do Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) obtido pela candidata do governo Dilma Rousseff nos pleitos presidenciais. A votação eleitoral no Brasil é influenciada por uma série de características não observadas, tais como clientelismo, coronelismo, preferências individuais, voto de cabresto etc. Se tais características não forem levadas em conta na análise, o retorno eleitoral de programas sociais como MCMV e Bolsa-Família pode não ser adequadamente captado. Para contornar isso, foram estimadas regressões usando dados em painel com controle de efeitos fixos em nível microrregional. Os resultados revelam que há evidência de retorno eleitoral nulo do MCMV. Ao contrário, constatou-se ainda a existência de retorno eleitoral do Bolsa-Família em todas as regressões. / The aim of this study is to analyze the electoral return of the Minha Casa Minha Vida Program (MCMV) obtained by the incumbent candidate Dilma Rousseff in the presidential elections. Brazilian polls are affected by various non-observed characteristics, such as patronage, "coronelismo", individual preferences, "voto de cabresto" etc. If these characteristics are not taken into account in the analysis, the electoral return of social programs like MCMV and Bolsa-Familia (BF) cannot be properly captured. To solve this problem, a fixed effect model was estimated at the micro-regional level. The findings reveal that there is evidence of electoral return null of MCMV. Still, the electoral return of BF program was verified in all estimated regressions.

This study analysed the intricacies of trade flows imbibed in the EU-SA TDCA. It assessed the trade creation and trade diversion effects of this bilateral trade agreement – using the top 10 selected commodity exports. This follows the report on the Harmonised System (HS) at the 2-digit codes. A Gravity Model Approach on bilateral trade flows is grounded on panel data models for the period 2000-2017 between South Africa as exporter country and the twenty EU countries (EU-20) as importer country-block out of the twenty-eight countries (EU-28). The study reports that the EU-SA TDCA enhanced significant trade expansion and trade creation effects. Mixed results for GDPs and GDPPKs for both South Africa and the EU countries were reported, but the overall results showed that the bilateral agreement do affect South African commodity exports more negatively, albeit with few positive effects from the EU countries in particular. Besides, ICTSA does have a negative effect on commodity exports, while the South African REER has the positive effect on export models. Lastly, the distance as a proxy of transportation costs negatively affects South Africa’s exports, while common colonial relationship and English as common official language have both a positive effect on exports. The findings imply that trade policies should focus on adequate telecommunication tools, alongside fair trade practices allowing South Africa to integrate with the global market, promote economic growth as well as enhance competitive advantage in most sectoral trades. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management (International Business and Finance))