This thesis consists of three studies on corporate governance issues of Chinese listed companies. In the first study, I investigate the role of board secretaries in management earnings forecasts. Individuals in this senior executive position are responsible for coordinating information disclosure. I find that their legal and accounting expertise and foreign experience help improve management earnings forecast quality. The quality of forecasts, as indicated by forecast occurrence, frequency, precision and accuracy, is positively associated with board secretaries' duality role and equity holdings, whereas it is negatively associated with their political connections. The quality of forecasts is found to increase the compensation of board secretaries. Finally, I show that the equity holdings of board secretaries reduce litigation risks and increase corporate philanthropic giving. Based on the notion that women cooperate more with women than with men, my second study examines the gender interaction effect between female top managers and female board directors in Chinese firms. I show that this gender interaction is positively associated with the firm's accounting return but negatively associated with its stock price return. Earnings management, which can lead to overstated accounting numbers but unfavourable stock market reactions, partly explains the opposite results. Furthermore, I find that only the newly appointed female top managers engage in this earnings management. Overall, the findings suggest that the pressure on women to perform leads to 'women helping women', which is detrimental to shareholders' value. Women are underrepresented on corporate boards. By employing the large variation in socioeconomic development across provinces of China, the third study shows that the barriers to board gender diversity are deeply rooted in societal gender role attitudes. I find that corporate boards tend to be more gender diverse in a province where there is a smaller gender difference in educational achievement in STEM disciplines, where there is a stronger belief that women and men possess equal intrinsic abilities, or where female political leaders are present in the provincial government or communist party. However, I find little evidence that female labour force participation or childcare provision would affect board gender diversity. Collectively, the findings suggest that it is the gender equality attitudes rather than the supply of average female labour that contribute to gender-diverse corporate boards.

The present project of applied research has as main problem the synchronization of information in the logistics chain of the company Ceramic Lima, the areas involved in this project are purchases, planning, production and storage, since the processes as a whole did not achieve the desired objective. From the manufacturing point of view, this project has logistic positions that will allow opting for critical analysis, since it shows diverse behaviors in the supply chain. In this way, the fluidity of information between each operating unit is of vital importance, adding the efforts of human capital, financial and natural resources. The motivation to carry out this research was given in order to demonstrate the theoretical knowledge learned throughout the academic training providing technical, operational and economic solutions. In this sense, this article presents the solutions for each eventuality that occurred along the logistics chain; evaluating the viability through an external and internal economic impact. / El presente proyecto de investigación aplicada tiene como problema principal la sincronización de información en la cadena logística de la empresa Cerámica Lima, las áreas involucradas en este proyecto son compras, planeamiento, producción y almacén, ya que los procesos en conjunto no lograban el objetivo deseado. Desde el punto de vista manufacturero este proyecto tiene posturas logísticas que permitirá optar por análisis críticos, ya que muestra diversos comportamientos en la cadena de suministro. De esta manera, la fluidez de información entre cada unidad operativa es de vital importancia, sumándose los esfuerzos de capital humano, recursos financieros y naturales La motivación de llevar a cabo esta investigación se dio con el fin de demostrar los conocimientos teóricos aprendidos a lo largo de la formación académica aportando soluciones técnicas, operativas y económicas. En este sentido, este artículo presenta las soluciones ante cada eventualidad ocurrida a lo largo de la cadena logística; evaluando la viabilidad a través de un impacto económico tanto externo e interno. / Tesis

本研究係探討在自願性揭露的情況下，公司盈餘預測準確度會受那些因素的影響？對國內外相關文獻及我國股市資訊環境進行探討後，提出預測期間長短、公司規模大小、盈餘變異性、市場風險、行業別、上市期間長短、自有資本比、綜合槓桿效果、揭露次數多寡、公告媒體別、揭露後累積異常報酬、上市類別、高估低估、預測階段以及年度別等可能影響準確度之因素，利用迴歸分析，以橫斷面(cross-sectional design)之設計方法，來探討各自變數與因變數（盈餘預測準確度）間之關係。 　　依理論判斷所制定之選樣標準，本研究以117家上市公司對於民國78年度至83年度之盈餘預測資料，共941個觀察值為研究樣本。經嚴格理論建立與統計分析后，本研究得出以下的結論： 　　一、預測期間愈短、管理當局盈餘預測準確度愈高。 　　二、公司規模愈大，管理當局盈餘預測準確度愈高。 　　三、市場風險愈低，管理當局盈餘預準確度愈高。 　　四、行業別與預測準確度具有關係。 　　五、自有資本比愈高，管理當局盈餘預測準確度愈高。 　　六、揭露次數愈多與管理當局盈餘預測準確度具有關係。 　　七、媒體別與預測準確度具有關係。 　　八、上市第一類股，預測準確度較高。 　　九、預測階段與預測準確度具有關係。

The spatial distribution of future population and employment has become a focus of recent academic enquiry and planning policy concerns. This is largely driven by the rapid urban expansion in major Australian cities and the need to plan ahead for new housing growth and demand for urban infrastructure and services. At a national level forecasts for population and employment are produced by the government and research institutions; however there is a further need to break these forecasts down to a disaggregate geographic scale for growth management within regions. Appropriate planning for the urban growth needs forecasts for fine-grained spatial units. This thesis has developed methodologies to predict the future settlement of the population, employment and urban form by applying a spatial disaggregation approach. The methodology uses the existing regional forecasts reported at regional geographic units and applies a novel spatially-based technique to step-down the regional forecasts to smaller geographical units. South East Queensland (SEQ) is the experimental context for the methodologies developed in the thesis, being one of the fastest-growing metropolitan regions in Australia. The research examines whether spatial disaggregation methodologies that can be used to enhance the forecasts for urban planning purposes and to derive a deeper understanding of the urban spatial structure under growth conditions. The first part of this thesis develops a method by which the SEQ population forecasts can be spatially disaggregated. This is related to a classical problem in geographical analysis called to modifiable area unit problem, where spatial data disaggregation may give inaccurate results due to spatial heterogeneity in the explanatory variables. Several statistical regression and dasymetric techniques are evaluated to spatially disaggregate population forecasts over the study area and to assess their relative accuracies. An important contribution arising from this research is that: i) it extends the dasymetric method beyond its current simple form to techniques that incorporate more complex density assumptions to disaggregate the data and, ii) it selects a method based on balancing the costs and errors of the disaggregation for a study area. The outputs of the method are spatially disaggregated population forecasts across the smaller areas that can be directly used for urban form analysis and are also directly available for subsequent employment disaggregation. The second part in this thesis develops a method to spatially disaggregate the employment forecasts and examine their impact on the urban form. A new method for spatially disaggregating the employment data is evaluated; it analyses the trend and spatial pattern of historic regional employment patterns based on employment determinants (for example, the local population and the proximity of an area to a shopping centre). The method we apply, namely geographically weighted regression (GWR), accounts for spatial effects of data autocorrelation and heterogeneity. Autocorrelation is where certain variables for employment determinants are related in space, and hence violate traditional statistical independence assumptions, and heterogeneity is where the associations between variables change across space. The method uses a locally-fitted relationship to estimate employment in the smaller geography whilst being constrained by the regional forecast. Results show that, by accounting for spatial heterogeneity in the local dependency of employment, the GWR method generates superior estimates over a global regression model. The spatially disaggregate projections developed in this thesis can be used to better understand questions on urban form. From a planning perspective, the results of spatial disaggregation indicate that the future growth of the population for SEQ is likely to maintain a spatially-dispersed growth pattern, whilst the employment is likely to follow a more polycentric distribution focused around the new activity centres. Overall, the thesis demonstrates that the spatial disaggregation method can be applied to supplement the regional forecasts to seek a deeper understanding of the future urban growth patterns. The development, application and validation of the spatial disaggregation methods will enhance the planner’s toolbox whilst responding to the data issues to inform urban planning and future development in a region.

The so-called "Arps" rate decline relations are by far the most widely used tool for assessing oil and gas reserves from rate performance. These relations (i.e., the exponential and hyperbolic decline relations) are empirical where the starting point for their derivation is given by the definitions of the "loss ratio" and the "derivative of the loss ratio", where the "loss ratio" is the ratio of rate data to derivative of rate data, and the "derivative of the loss ratio" is the "b-parameter" as defined by Arps [1945]. The primary goal of this work is the interpretation of the b-parameter continuously over time and thus the better understanding of its character. As is shown below we propose "monotonically decreasing functional forms" for the characterization of the b-parameter, in addition to the exponential and hyperbolic rate decline relations, where the b-parameter is assumed to be zero and constant, respectively. The proposed equations are as follow: b(t)=constant (Arps' hyperbolic rate-decline relation), []tbbtb10exp)(-bt= (exponential function), (power-law function), 10)(btbtb=)/(1)(10tbbtb+= (rational function). The corresponding rate decline relation for each case is obtained by solving the differential equation associated with the selected functional for the b-parameter. The next step of this procedure is to test and validate each of the rate decline relations by applying them to various numerical simulation cases (for gas), as well as for field data cases obtained from tight/shale gas reservoirs. Our results indicate that b-parameter is never constant but it changes continuously with time. The ultimate objective of this work is to establish each model as a potential analysis/diagnostic relation. Most of the proposed models yield more realistic estimations of gas reserves in comparison to the traditional Arps' rate decline relations (i.e., the hyperbolic decline) where the reserves estimates are inconsistent and over-estimated. As an example, the rational b-parameter model seems to be the most accurate model in terms of representing the character of rate data; and therefore, should yield more realistic reserves estimates. Illustrative examples are provided for better understanding of each b-parameter rate decline model. The proposed family of rate decline relations was based on the character of the b-parameter computed from the rate-time data and they can be applied to a wide range of data sets, as dictated by the character of rate data.

In the first essay titled "The Information Role of Analysts' Contrarian Revisions," I study a special group of revisions: contrarian revisions, defined as recommendation changes that are inconsistent with sizable stock price movements during the past week. I find that contrarian revisions are relatively more informative than trending revisions. In particular, contrarian revisions are associated with a both statistically and economically larger post-announcement drift. I also find contrarian downgrades are less likely to be issued by all-star analysts and analysts with more experience. After implementation of Regulation RD, the market reaction to contrarian revisions issued by all-stars significantly decreases, indicating private information contained in contrarian recommendations has declined. Overall, our results suggest analyst recommendations are important information sources for market participants. In the second essay titled "Market Reaction to Earnings When Investors Disagree," I investigate how the divergence of opinions between individual and institutional investors affects stock price movements around public news events, specifically earnings announcements. I use a discrete static market equilibrium model to illustrate that divergence of investors' opinions has a significant impact on stock price movements around earnings announcements. Specifically, the divergence of opinion has a negative relation with the immediate market reaction but a positive relation with the subsequent stock price drift. I also investigate trading volume around earnings announcements to explore how traders respond to changes in the divergence of investors' opinions. Empirical evidence supports the model implications and indicates announcement trading volume decreases inversely to the divergence of opinions.

No description available.

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the way credit risk is affected by and affects the macroeconomic environment has been the focus of academics, risk practitioners and central bankers alike. In this thesis I approach three distinct questions that aim to provide valuable insight into how corporate defaults, recoveries and credit ratings interact with the conditions in the wider economy. The first question focuses on how well the macroeconomic environment forecasts corporate bond defaults. I approach the question from a macroeconomic perspective and I make full use of the multitude of lengthy macroeconomic time series available. Following the recent literature on data-rich environment modelling, I summarise a large panel of 103 macroeconomic time series into a small set of 6 dynamic factors; the factors capture business cycle, yield curve, credit premia and equity market conditions. Prior studies on dynamic factors use identification schemes based on principal components or recursive short-run restrictions. The main contribution to the body of existing literature is that I provide a novel and more robust identification scheme for the 6 macro-financial stochastic factors, based on a set of over-identifying restrictions. This allows for a more straightforward interpretation of the extracted factors and a more meaningful decomposition of the corporate default dynamics. Furthermore, I use a novel Bayesian estimation scheme based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that has not been used before in a credit risk context. I argue that the proposed algorithm provides an effcient and flexible alternative to the simulation based estimation approaches used in the existing literature. The sampling scheme is used to estimate a state-of-the-art dynamic econometric specification that is able to separate macro-economic fluctuations from unobserved default clustering. Finally, I provide evidence that the macroeconomic factors can lead to significant improvements in default probability forecasting performance. The forecasting performance gains become less pronounced the longer the default forecasting horizon. The second question explores the sensitivity of corporate bond defaults and recoveries on monetary policy and macro-financial shocks. To address the question, I follow a more structural approach to extract theory-based economic shocks and quantify the magnitude of the impact on the two main credit risk drivers. This is the first study that approaches the decomposition of the movements in credit risk metrics from a structural perspective. I introduce a VAR model with a novel semi-structural identification scheme to isolate the various shocks at the macro level. The dynamic econometric specification for defaults and recoveries is similar to the one used to address the first question. The specification is flexible enough to allow for the separation of the macroeconomic movements from the credit risk specific unobserved correlation and, therefore, isolate the different shock transmission mechanisms. I report that the corporate default likelihood is strongly affected by balance sheet and real economy shocks for the cyclical industry sectors, while the effects of monetary policy shocks typically take up to one year to materialise. In contrast, recovery rates tend to be more sensitive to asset price shocks, while real economy shocks mainly affect secured debt recovery values. The third question shifts the focus to credit ratings and addresses the Through-the- Cycle dynamics of the serial dependence in rating migrations. The existing literature treats the so-called rating momentum as constant through time. I show that the rating momentum is far from constant, it changes with the business cycle and its magnitude exhibits a non-linear dependence on time spent in a given rating grade. Furthermore, I provide robust evidence that the time-varying rating momentum substantially increases actual and Marked-to-Market losses in periods of stress. The impact on regulatory capital for financial institutions is less clear; nevertheless, capital requirements for high credit quality portfolios can be significantly underestimated during economic downturns.

O objetivo desta tese é analisar os determinantes políticos e econômicos dos desvios de execução orçamentária no Brasil, no período de 2002 a 2015. Desvios de execução são definidos como a diferença entre o valor observado da variável e o valor previsto no orçamento. A partir do uso de dados em tempo real, isto é, dados disponíveis aos formuladores de política no momento em que as decisões de política fiscal são tomadas, busca-se compreender os desvios de execução da política fiscal à luz de alguns fatores atuantes na fase de planejamento e execução da política, confrontando a intencionalidade declarada pelo executor da política no planejamento orçamentário com os resultados finais obtidos. Para contornar a ausência de uma base de dados em tempo real organizada para a economia brasileira, a base utilizada foi construída a partir dos documentos oficiais gerados ao longo das fases do processo orçamentário. A construção dessa base, no entanto, limitou-se em função da insuficiência de dados em tempo real de acesso público. Para atingir o objetivo proposto, os desvios de execução fiscal foram inicialmente avaliados a partir da análise dos eventos que condicionaram o planejamento e a execução do orçamento. À esta análise somou-se uma análise empírica, na qual buscou-se identificar os determinantes da fase de planejamento, a partir da análise dos fatores que influenciam na previsão de arrecadação, e os condicionantes da fase de execução orçamentária, a partir da identificação dos fatores que contribuem para os desvios de execução. Os resultados indicam que a previsão fiscal distanciou-se mais significativamente dos valores realizados a partir do ano de 2012 e que os desvios nas previsões dos fatores macroeconômicos, sobretudo na previsão de crescimento do PIB ajudam a explicar esse distanciamento. Verificou-se também um otimismo persistente nas projeções de crescimento do PIB utilizadas para a elaboração do orçamento. Adicionalmente, verificou-se que a adoção de subterfúgios contábeis adotados pelo Governo para atingir artificialmente as metas de superávit primário resultam em uma execução orçamentária desvinculada do orçamento planejado, dificultando a análise dos desvios de execução e transformando o processo de planejamento orçamentário em mera exigência legal, sem aplicação prática. / This thesis aims to analyze the politic and economic determinants of the budget execution deviation in Brazil, from 2002 to 2015. Execution deviation is defined as the difference between the observed value of the variable and the forecast budget value. From the use of real-time data, i.e., data available to policy makers at the time the fiscal policy decisions are taken, we seek to understand the execution deviations from fiscal policy in the light of some active factors during the planning phase and policy execution, confronting the intention declared by the policy maker in the budget planning with the final results. To work around the lack of a real-time dataset organized for the Brazilian economy, the dataset used was built from the official documents generated throughout the phases of the budget process. The construction of this dataset, however, was limited due to insufficient data in real-time public access. To achieve this goal, the fiscal execution deviations were initially evaluated from the analysis of the events that conditioned the planning and execution of the budget. To this analysis we added up an empirical analysis, in which we attempted to identify the determinants of the planning phase from the analysis of the factors that influence in the revenue forecast and the conditioners of the budget execution phase from the identification of factors contributing to the execution deviations. The results indicate that the realized values drifted away significantly more from the fiscal forecast from the year 2008 and that the deviations in the forecasts of macroeconomic factors, particularly in the GDP growth forecast, help to explain this gap.

Orientador: Sergio Valdir Bajay / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T05:07:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carvalho_ClaudioBezerrade_D.pdf: 1717945 bytes, checksum: 278bbb29104ec96389a1e6616a1dc209 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: Este trabalho traz uma avaliação critica do planejamento energético de longo prazo realizado no Pais nos últimos anos e aponta tanto para a necessidade de uma melhor integração entre as atividades de planejamento energético, elaboração de políticas públicas e regulação dos mercados de energia, como para uma premente descentralização do processo de planejamento. Como resultados desta análise e com base em experiências bem sucedidas no exterior, são propostos avanços metodológicos para a elaboração de futuras projeções e o desenvolvimento de um modelo integrado de projeção da demanda e da oferta de energéticos. Como a aplicação de tal modelo está vinculada à utilização de uma base de dados ampla e consistente, é proposto o desenvolvimento de um sistema nacional de informações energéticas, integrado a um sistema de informações executivas, cujo objetivo é servir de suporte para as atividades desenvolvidas pelo Ministério de Minas e Energia. Discute-se os vários métodos de tratamento das incertezas nos modelos energéticos, com destaques para a elaboração de cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento e para o uso da técnica Delphi de levantamento de opiniões de especialistas. Monta-se, por fim, à guisa de um estudo de caso que visa contribuir para o necessário processo de descentralização do planejamento energético no País, cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento para a projeção da demanda energética do Estado da Bahia, de uma forma concatenada com cenários semelhantes no âmbito nacional / Abstract: This work brings a critical evaluation of the long-term energy planning carried out in the country in the last years, pointing out both for the need of a better integration of the activities concerning energy planning, policy making and regulation of energy markets, and for an urgent decentralization of the planning process. As results of this analysis and based on successful experiences abroad,methodological advances are proposed for the elaboration of future forecasts, together with the development of an integrated model for forecasting energy demand and supply. As the application of such a model requires a broad and consistent data basis, setting up a national system of energy information is proposed, integrated to a system of executive information, aimed to support the activities of the Ministry of Mines and Energy. The several methods for treating uncertainties in energy modeling are discussed, with emphasis on the elaboration of alternative development scenarios and the use of the Delphi technique for collecting and processing the opinions of specialists. At the end, alternative development scenarios for forecasting the energy demand in the State of Bahia, linked to similar scenarios at the national level, are elaborated, as a study case aimed to contribute for the necessary decentralization process of energy planning in the country / Doutorado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Doutor em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos